FOOL-X: 1B Eichiro Nemoto

[gstelmack]

Let's call this "A Case Study in Player Development". We can also call it "Greg doesn't want to make Alan mad by screwing up Nemoto"

Nemoto is currently 5/5/3/3/3 in his hitting skils (CON/GAP/HR/EYE/K). He spent 2 years in A, one in AA, and this last in AAA. He only gained 1 point of EYE, his CON and POW stayed the same. He hit .325 with an OPS of .870 in AAA. He looks to me like he's ready to move up to the majors next season.

Does he look that way to others? I'm always worried when things like EYE are still that low, and I've seen enough guys never fulfill their potential there (like Control for pitchers) to be worried about calling him up too early. But he also looks stagnated on the others and dominating AAA, which tells me he's ready to try some ML pitching.

I compare him to a guy like 2B Miguel De Los Santos, who is 5/5/3/5/4, gained nothing in AAA, and with his EYE/K where they are I'm much less worried about bringing him up next year despite his hitting numbers being worse than Nemoto (.252/.739).

So, do you think I'll kill Nemoto's HOF career by giving him a shot next season, do you think he's ready, or is he on the cusp where it could go either way and I just have to decide if I'll roll the dice with him?

[hyde4us11]

If it was me I'd leave him there 1 more year. At 21 he still has a couple years before you worry about him not progressing. Patience is a virtue here i think.

[ekcut]

I would for sure leave him down for another year. He did well at AAA but didn't dominate, and none of his ratings are ML average right now. When he hits 6 or above in contact then bring him up. He can at least play a regular role in the majors at that point. He is also only 21, so there is no need for concern about his moderate growth last season. Lotsa time for him yet...dont waste a year of his sweeeeeeeet 100k salary playing witgh below average ratings.
Keep him down in AAA, develope him further and then trade him to London!

[Tasan]

Give him another AAA year, like everyone is saying. I'm just about used to the new dev stuff, and I think you've really got to see strong ratings movement and success in the minors before bringing players up. Figuring out how long to leave them in A ball seems to really be the overall key, but those last season(s) in AAA are also very important.

[Tasan]

Another rating to keep a close eye on is his power, especially with his ceiling so high. I think I messed up Zaragosa a little by not letting him sit just a touch longer to get his power number up closer to 6 before bringing him up. I won't make that same mistake with my new stud OF slugger in A ball right now.

[Alan T]

I wouldn't bring up either De Los Santos or Nemoto for any reason unless I think I could win it all and I absolutely needed them to get the championship.

I don't think either are ready for the majors, I think both are developing still and both are young.

I don't see a reason to rush them to the majors, starting their service time and in Nemoto's case especially making him become a free agent right when he is about to hit his prime of his career.

[Alan T]

I think Nemoto can end up being pretty similar to Frank Dawson, a player I drafted for buckinbranco when I was baby sitting his team for him. Check out his development if you want. Even though it is FOOL and not FOOL-X, I've found the development process between the leagues to be somewhat similar. Obviously for whatever reasons different players develop at different paces, but with him Dawson in FOOL, he stayed an extra season in AAA when I think most people would have brought him up. He started the AAA season with a 71 in contact (7 equivalent in FOOL-X rating scale), and ended that season with an 81 in contact. More importantly though it gave him a chance to better develop a few other ratings into the Greens as well that were trailing a bit.

I think when we see super studs, we get antsy and often times they are rushed to the majors, when really patience is better. Especially from a financial sense. If you time it just right, you can have Nemoto for minimum wage and then arbitration into his early 30s as well.

[Tasan]

Also remember in FOOL-X about super-arb. Call him up too early and you don't get him real cheap for as long as you normally would.

[spleen1015]

I would listen to ekcut.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I would listen to ekcut.

What? You want Nemoto traded to London too?

[gstelmack]

Thanks guys, it's all real good info, and I like having specifics when we talk about development.

[Alan T]

Helping this study along, Greg kept Nemoto at AAA again this year, and this was his results:

Player	Level	Date	Rating	Trend	From	To
Eichiro Nemoto	AAA	1974-09-26	Contact (overall)	1	5	6
Eichiro Nemoto	AAA	1974-09-26	Eye (overall)	1	4	5
Eichiro Nemoto	AAA	1974-09-26	Gap (overall)	1	5	6
Eichiro Nemoto	AAA	1974-09-26	Power (overall)	1	3	4
Eichiro Nemoto	AAA	1974-09-26	Strikeouts (overall)	1	3	4
Eichiro Nemoto	AAA	1974-09-26	Eye (vsl)	2	4	6
Eichiro Nemoto	AAA	1974-09-26	Gap (vsl)	1	6	7
Eichiro Nemoto	AAA	1974-09-26	Eye (vsr)	2	3	5
Eichiro Nemoto	AAA	1974-09-26	Gap (vsr)	1	5	6
Eichiro Nemoto	AAA	1974-09-26	Strikeouts (vsr)	1	3	4
Eichiro Nemoto	AAA	1974-03-31	Eye (overall)	1	3	4

So now at least according to the webpage, he is:

Batting Ratings (OSA)
	Overall	Vs Left	Vs Right	Potential
Contact	6	6	5	10
Gap	6	7	6	7
Power	4	4	3	10
Eye	5	6	5	6
Avoid K's	4	4	4	8

So looks like all +1s since Greg's original post except Eye which was +2

[ekcut]

It's a tougher desicion now, but i would keep him in AAA one more year.

[gstelmack]

Yeah, he had a nice developmental year. It iwll be a tough decision what to do this season with all the prospects I have just about ready.