The Village Idiot (3.31.2043)

[Alan T]

The upper hand

When discussing pass trades, it is often fun to try to determine which team might have gotten the upper hand. Looking back on trades of the past, often you can see in hindsight that they were one sided. Perhaps a veteran superstar that suddenly got old. A promising young player that never lived up to potential. The ideal trade for most teams however ends up being one where both teams 'win' and are able to improve their teams in the deal.

The Okamoto - Correa trade made between New York and Napa Valley a few seasons ago was a rare one that included young promising players for both sides. New York picked up perhaps one of the three best hitters in all of baseball. Napa Valley picked up a perennial 20-game winner which is something that is always in high demand. In the deal, New York also added a promising youngster Wilson Aguirre which could at first glance be the difference of the deal that gave the nod to Napa Valley. More about him later however.

With 20-25 Win Shares each of the last three seasons, Correa has been one of the most valuable starting pitchers in baseball. The 139 ERA+ and VORP of over 80 from the past two seasons signifies that he is virtually unreplacable at that position. Okamoto has been just as significant for the Heroes however in that time. Win Shares of 25 to 30 and VORP of 80+ for his first two seasons with New York has meant that 'Lurch' is everything he was perceived to be. Then last season's production from Okamoto might simply have been one of the best of all time. If not for his teammate one-upping him, Okamoto would have cleaned up on the awards any other season.

What about that other toss in player? There is a little matter of what Wilson Aguirre's addition to the trade would mean. Despite being a young player, at the age of 21, Aguirre saw a full season of playing time for Napa Valley immediately after the trade. He did not flame out, but he was below average all across the board and spent the entire 2041 season in the minors. Last year Napa Valley gave him another full season in the majors. He was for all intent and purposes a slightly above average player. The Village Idiot fears however that the damage has been done with Aguirre however. His confidence has been rocked and he might never reach the lofty projections that were once made about him. He likely will be what he is, maybe slight improvements but nothing near the extra 'edge' that he could have been in this deal. Still, Aguirre did record close to 17 win Shares for last season. When combining Correa and Aguirre, their win shares almost exactly equals Okamoto's. Does this mean this was an entirely fair or even deal? Was this a deal that everyone won in?

The Village Idiot actually thinks this should be completely flipped. Instead this is a deal that no one won. Both Napa Valley AND New York lost in this deal. You might ask, how does that even make any sense? These are two great players here, how can a team getting one of them be a loser in this deal? VI feels that both teams could have ended up better off by holding on to the player they traded away.

Napa Valley never did end up being the complete blow up and rebuild job that their management advertised. They remained competitive, a big part due to Correa joining the team. Their weakness however was and has almost always been lack of hitting. New York on the other hand has had a historic duo in Okamoto and Pichette, and have had some success. Their team is too shallow however. Too much of the weight is left on the shoulders of Zuniga. The Heroes will struggle to compete this year and mostly that will be due to lack of pitching depth. If they had a 1-2 of Zuniga and Correa, they likely would be a stronger contender in the hitting friendly Republic League.

I fully suspect both owners are completely happy with the player they received in the deal. Both are outstanding players. For the purposes of scoring this trade however, we'll just call it a draw.


See you in 12 years!

The Baltimore Charm have been on an interesting trend since the 2014 season. The amount of time between championships has been increasing by 2 after each won. After the 2014 championship, it was only four years until their next title in 2018. It took 6 years for their next one however in the year 2024. Their fans had to wait 8 full seasons for another in 2032 and now with the title last season it was 10 years between titles. Does this mean they won't regain the FOOL crown again until 2054? Baltimore fans definitely hope not, but perhaps those fans have become a tiny bit spoiled as the city of Baltimore last season tied for the most Championships in FOOL history with 10 titles.

Buying out arbitration years

It is no surprise that once a player hits the prime of their career, between the ages 26 and 30 their asking price rockets in value. A player that had made only $3 to $5 million in salary the year before might suddenly be asking for $10million+. This can leave a horrible situation for an owner to be in where they have to suddenly decide between valuable players.

One of the more common trends that has been seen over the last few decades has been one of shrewd owners looking carefully at their young superstars and forecasting when they are likely to hit the open market. Usually a player who has one or two years of arbitration remaining will actually accept signing a long term contract with you. Rightly so they often will ask for more money than they would get simply from arbitration, but it can sometimes be worth it for a team to give that player a little extra cash up front. Teams that have utilized this approach have been able to sign a young superstar for 5-6 years of their prime at below market value even if it means spending a bit more than they would simply from arbitration.

A few extra dollars spent up front can possibly save tens of millions later!


Keep an eye out for....

Shelby Barnard, a young catcher in the Baltimore organization had an ok season at AA last year, but his best is yet to come. VI feels it highly unlikely to see Barnard make it to the majors this season, and if he does it could possibly be a bad mistake in his development. Barnard could end up being a future star though as a catcher that has great bat control and is able to hit balls all over the park.

A few years removed from the one-hit wonder that was 'Broadway Joe', Hyannis fans are wondering who the face of the franchise might be. The Patriots have a team with several solid players and one of the best farm systems in baseball, but they are missing that key marquee player. 27 year old Starting pitcher George Shippy could make some waves for Hyannis this season. He has had two solid seasons at AAA and is a bit more mature then many rookies when they enter the league. We don't expect him to contend for a Prado award, but he could be among the league leaders in ERA as a rookie!

The winners will be...

Pitching.. pitching... pitching. That is how Baltimore and Colorado both made it to the championship last season and why both of those teams will also return to the playoffs once again this season. Both the Charm and Rancheros have solid hitting and two or three of the best starting pitchers in their respective leagues. That combination is enough for them to go ahead and print playoff tickets for this season.

Sometimes all pitching and no hitting ends up leaving a team frustrated and home in October. That is what occurred to Tokyo last season. Despite having one of the best pitching rotations in FOOL, their hitting was abysmal. They have made some efforts to improve that in the offseason which should be good enough to allow them to contend this season and our pick to join Baltimore in the playoffs.

We don't want to be remiss and not mention Hammersmith either. They simply are the best team in baseball. They have the best starting pitching, the best bullpen, the best offense and one of the better defenses in FOOL. Will that be enough to award them a championship when it is all said and done? Probably not. Their owner is cursed!

[buckinbranco]

Haha, we can only hope Chief wins a championship soon so we don't have to hear about him being cursed anymore!

::edit:: Also Napa Valley just picked up some more offense!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

We don't want to be remiss and not mention Hammersmith either. They simply are the best team in baseball. They have the best starting pitching, the best bullpen, the best offense and one of the better defenses in FOOL. Will that be enough to award them a championship when it is all said and done? Probably not. Their owner is cursed!

Gold. And 100% true.

TBF, buck, I just won a championship two seasons ago, so it's not quite as annoying as before.