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Old 07-09-2013, 06:27 AM   #1
Qwikshot
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Fantasy Football Keeper discussion

So, it's almost that time again and I'm in year 2 of a keeper league. First year was not so good and I found myself in 2nd to last place, but on the bright side, I became a seller of RG3 and managed to nab 3 draft picks in the first four rounds (losing my 6th round pick - keepers are the 1st three rounds).

I cannot keep three WRs due to keeper rules.

So I was going over the keeper process and had a sinking feeling...the team prior to me has Adrian Peterson, Witten and a scrub receiver to keep, but gets first overall pick. In my tunnel-vision I believed that he would go after Drew Brees his QB last season (our QBs get 6 pts per TD, and points per yardage), but now I have the sinking feeling he'll be selecting Jamaal Charles.

I initially was going to keep Cam Newton, Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb and go heavy on runningbacks, but now, I think I should keep Julio Jones (at the expense of Newton, as you can only keep 1 of your 1st three picks from the season prior), Cobb or Harvin (still unsure of this) and my only other eligible player is TE Antonio Gates. Now I think the TE is deep but Gates would be okay.

This way if the team prior to me drafts Charles, I get Brees without being stuck with Newton, if he drafts Brees, I get Charles and grab a QB later (there will be some good QBs eligible for draft - I think Rogers, Luck, RG3, Matt Ryan are a few of those that are being kept).

Does this sound that a good plan, with two fourth round picks, two fifth round picks and a high 7th round pick, I should be able to adjust.

So again:

Option 1:Newton QB Cobb WR Harvin WR
Option 2:Julio Jones WR Cobb or Harvin WR Gates TE
Thanks
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Last edited by Qwikshot : 07-09-2013 at 06:28 AM.
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Old 07-09-2013, 07:16 AM   #2
Danny
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Super Easy decision, newton, Cobb and harvin. Gates is only a name now, he is just about useless (I'd rank him 13-16 among tight ends, which is almost worthless as a keeper.
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Old 07-09-2013, 07:44 AM   #3
Qwikshot
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Originally Posted by Danny View Post
Super Easy decision, newton, Cobb and harvin. Gates is only a name now, he is just about useless (I'd rank him 13-16 among tight ends, which is almost worthless as a keeper.

True, but would Brees be a better upgrade over Newton, if the 1st pick team selects Charles instead? Wouldn't Jones be an upgrade over Cobb and Harvin enough? TE would be deep enough to grab someone later?

Thanks for responding though...I know it seems easy but I would hate to lose Brees because I already have Newton. And I wouldn't draft both, after Charles you would have Richardson, Gore, Wilson, and a bunch of rookies.
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Old 07-09-2013, 01:36 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Bobby Valentine View Post
I'd drop Newton. In that scenario, you win with either Brees or Charles. Gates is average, but he's no worse than any other TE you'd get.

I think you having the 2nd overall pick makes this more about maximizing the value of the pick, instead of minimizing the losses due to keeper rules.

That's my thought, I realized that the owner picking before me may actually realize Charles might be a better value than Brees, Brees would trump Newton but I'd already have Newton and thus now I've weakened my receiver corp (not by much, but still) by losing Jones (unless I burn a pick trying to get him).

The QB keepers that I'm surmising will stay with their teams:

Andrew Luck
RG3
Aaron Rogers
Matt Ryan
Tom Brady

(note: this is all speculative but some of it is process from elimination - any player dropped in waivers during the season is not eligible to keep)

Runningbacks I think will be kept:

Ray Rice
Arian Foster
LeSean McCoy
Adrian Peterson
CJ Spiller
Doug Martin
Marshawn Lynch
Darren Sproles
Reggie Bush
Steve Ridley
Ben Tate

Wide Receivers kept:

Calvin Johnson
Julio Jones (now)
Hakim Nicks
Percy Harvin (possible)
Victor Cruz
Dwayne Bowe
Wes Welker
AJ Green
Dez Bryant
Jordy Nelson
Stevie Johnson

TE:

Jimmy Graham
Antoinio Gates (for now)
Jason Witten

----------------------------------------
TE had Jimmy Graham as points leader with 144, Gates had 89, there were 12 players in between (point difference is 55 points)
----------------------------------------
QB had Drew Brees leading the league with 423 points, 6th place was where Cam Newton was at 347 (point difference is 76 points)
----------------------------------------
WR had Calvin Johnson leading the league with 214 points, 9th was Julio Jones at 173, Randall Cobb had 150, and Percy Harvin before he was injured was lighting things up and finished with 99 points
----------------------------------------

Runningbacks left if Charles is selected are:
Alfred Morris - all run, no receving
Frank Gore - old but really good offense and O-line
Trent Richardson - I don't like this guy, Browns look trendy but I think will fail
Matt Forte - serviceable but won't carry a team
Chris Johnson - better o-line but I bet same disappointing performance
Steven Jackson - worth a pick, but not sure as my 1st pick
DeMarco Murray - gimpy
Ryan Matthews - bust
Lamar Miller - unproven
Le'von Bell - rookie I would take a flyer on
Montee Ball - rookie I would take a flyer on but sounds like dreaded RBBC in Denver
David Wilson - Had him, dropped him, would have kept him if he performed like his last game
Darren McFadden - meh
MJD - gimpy and a terrible team
Eddie Lacy - worth a flyer
----------------------------

It thins out after Charles...I hope the 1st pick owner takes Brees, but at least if he takes Charles I'll have a solid QB-WR-WR foundation (I think I'll take Cobb because of Harvin's injury woes may have teams beg off of him)

Maybe I overthink, but if he takes Brees, then I get Charles and I can see about reacquiring Cam, but there will be depth at QB, with 2 4th round picks, 2 5th round picks, and a high 7th, I should be able to have depth (I will probably charge on runningbacks, they'll fly off the shelf).

Thanks for all the input...
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Old 07-09-2013, 02:34 PM   #5
Julio Riddols
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I'd totally dump Newton for Brees. Cam Newton is the Chris Johnson of QB's. Brees is consistently throwing for boatloads of yards and TD's, even with a few picks here and there. You can almost always count on Brees putting up big numbers. Fantasy football teams that are consistent will almost always beat teams full of guys who are hit or miss week to week.
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Old 07-09-2013, 02:39 PM   #6
Julio Riddols
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Also - Keeping Gates makes no sense at all to me. I wouldn't touch him unless he went undrafted. He was healthy most of last season for a change and still put up totally pedestrian numbers. You'd probably be better served with almost any other starting TE. This is just my opinion though. I haven't seen Gates as draftable for a few seasons now.
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Old 07-09-2013, 02:55 PM   #7
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Jared Cook in St. Louis seems like an excellent darkhorse TE this year.
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Old 07-09-2013, 03:26 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Julio Riddols View Post
Also - Keeping Gates makes no sense at all to me. I wouldn't touch him unless he went undrafted. He was healthy most of last season for a change and still put up totally pedestrian numbers. You'd probably be better served with almost any other starting TE. This is just my opinion though. I haven't seen Gates as draftable for a few seasons now.

Gates is the only other player I can keep:

1)Can only keep one player from 1st three rounds (Cam Newton, Chris Johnson, Julio Jones)
2)Cannot keep more than 3 players at the same postion
3)Cannot keep anyone that was on the waiver wire at any point in the season

My eligible players are Cam Newton (1-3), Julio Jones (1-3) Percy Harvin (drafted in 4th round - traded to me), Randall Cobb (11th round), Antonio Gates (14th round)

Gates is a warm body, but keeping him allows me to keep Julio Jones and either Harvin or Cobb. If I keep Cam, I lose Julio but keep Harvin and Cobb.

Sorry if that wasn't clear, I can always drop Gates later, but it would be better to keep him as a warm body than burn a draft pick on another TE. I mean I could always forfeit one of my keeper picks but that would seem unwise.
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Old 07-09-2013, 03:26 PM   #9
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Jared Cook in St. Louis seems like an excellent darkhorse TE this year.

I like him...there are a lot of sleepers this year.
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Old 07-09-2013, 04:25 PM   #10
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It seems pretty clear that if you don't get Charles or Brees, you're going to feel screwed. If you keep Newton, you're risking that scenario.

I'd just dump Newton and eliminate any chance of feeling screwed by the draft. That's the worst feeling to go into a season with.

Yeah...it looks that way...I'm just glad I didn't have tunnel vision until the draft.
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Old 07-09-2013, 04:27 PM   #11
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I like him...there are a lot of sleepers this year.

Yeah, I agree. I think it is a position this year where the bottom 15 of the top 20 are going to be almost interchangeable. Unless you can get Graham, Gonzalez, Witten, Olsen or V.Davis, I feel like you could put the next 15 names in a hat and do just fine. I'd almost swap Rudolph for Davis in that top 5, but I don't know if the Vikes will be able to pass the ball at all.
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Old 07-09-2013, 07:03 PM   #12
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Are you in a roster freeze at this point or any chance you could trade one of Newton/Jones/Harvin for a RB to then use as a keeper?
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Old 07-09-2013, 07:10 PM   #13
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If your choice is essentially Newton/Harvin vs Jones/Gates, what about going Newton/Harvin and still taking whichever of Brees/Charles falls to you? Obviously you'd prefer Charles, but if you end up with Brees, while expensive, you've got great strength at two positions then and can leverage a trade later on. Sounds like you've got a good stock pile of picks so you can still go RB heavy afterwards and hope to hit. Personally I value points vs replacement and Gates doesn't do that for you at all. You know your league better than any of us do, but the fall off from Jones to Harvin/Cobb isn't nearly the same as Newton to Gates in QB heavy scoring.

Riskier strategy but if you have any confidence that you can work that trade out later.

I'd also suggest giving Forte another look. The new offense they're talking about there could really revitalize him, especially with his involvement in the passing game. There's a lot of talent in the available RB list you posted.

Edit: Sorry, on the go and posting while traveling between appointments. Given the list you posted, even if you're not sold on him, Richardson is another draft and trade type. Find out what owner likes him and see what sort of upgrade you can work out. Personally I'd probably go Charles Richardson as my shortlist at your spot.

Newton-Richardson-Harvin-Cobb or Brees-Jones-Harvin/Cobb-Gates, I'll take the first option and that's your worst case scenario keeping those guys.
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Old 07-09-2013, 07:19 PM   #14
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Are you in a roster freeze at this point or any chance you could trade one of Newton/Jones/Harvin for a RB to then use as a keeper?

Roster freeze I would only be able to move a keeper for a keeper, I don't know if anyone would move any of those players for draft picks...and I'd be down a player.
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Old 07-09-2013, 08:27 PM   #15
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If your choice is essentially Newton/Harvin vs Jones/Gates, what about going Newton/Harvin and still taking whichever of Brees/Charles falls to you? Obviously you'd prefer Charles, but if you end up with Brees, while expensive, you've got great strength at two positions then and can leverage a trade later on. Sounds like you've got a good stock pile of picks so you can still go RB heavy afterwards and hope to hit. Personally I value points vs replacement and Gates doesn't do that for you at all. You know your league better than any of us do, but the fall off from Jones to Harvin/Cobb isn't nearly the same as Newton to Gates in QB heavy scoring.

Riskier strategy but if you have any confidence that you can work that trade out later.

I'd also suggest giving Forte another look. The new offense they're talking about there could really revitalize him, especially with his involvement in the passing game. There's a lot of talent in the available RB list you posted.

I will, worse comes to worse I get Alfred Morris and either Forte or Jackson or somebody warm...

Not so amenable for Cam Newton trading...I had Cam on the trade block all last season...owners wanted RG3. Better to get an upgrade and burn a pick on a suitable backup...I like Kapernick.
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Old 07-10-2013, 09:35 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Qwikshot View Post
True, but would Brees be a better upgrade over Newton, if the 1st pick team selects Charles instead? Wouldn't Jones be an upgrade over Cobb and Harvin enough? TE would be deep enough to grab someone later?

Thanks for responding though...I know it seems easy but I would hate to lose Brees because I already have Newton. And I wouldn't draft both, after Charles you would have Richardson, Gore, Wilson, and a bunch of rookies.

Gates is a TE2, he has 0 value. Literally, he has negative VBD value, so it's as if you are keeping only two players.

Newton, Harvin, Cobb and whoever you get at #2 will be better than Brees, Cobb, jones and gates. In fact id much rather have Brees, newton, Cobb and harvin than Brees, jones, Cobb and gates.

Also, at the risk of bragging, I have played 8 seasons overall of money leagues that costed $100-$250 and had 12-14 teams. I have 3 championships, 3 second place finishes and 2 times missed the playoffs, primarily due to season ending injuries to two of my three best players both times. VBD is the way to go and VBD says newton, Cobb and harvin is the way to go

Last edited by Danny : 07-10-2013 at 09:44 AM.
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Old 07-10-2013, 09:40 AM   #17
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Oh looking at the list, forget brees. Keep newton, Cobb and harvin and then take whichever of Charles or Richardson is there.

And if you go against my keeper advice, I would still advise to take charles or Richardson over Brees.

Last edited by Danny : 07-10-2013 at 09:55 AM.
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Old 07-10-2013, 01:47 PM   #18
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Oh looking at the list, forget brees. Keep newton, Cobb and harvin and then take whichever of Charles or Richardson is there.

And if you go against my keeper advice, I would still advise to take charles or Richardson over Brees.

I love the responses but I think perspective-wise, I think Julio is way more an upgrade over Harvin and Cobb (I'm leaning towards Cobb, Harvin has had his injuries, and I may see if he drops and redraft- let's face it, it'll be a run on runningbacks).

Brees>Newton - factor in that Cam still has a crappy receiver corp and unknown runningback situations; Brees gets Sean Payton back and has a monster offense.

I kow what you mean about Gates, the only other player I can keep is Willis McGahee who I think is a stretch. Gates had 12 TEs better than him, but I know TE is deep and can manage to grab another TE late (bye week coverage).

I just think when you factor things, Brees is an upgrade and Julio Jones has massive value, and Cobb or Harvin is a great #2. I have another pick in the round and then start gunning for RBs...

NOW, if Jamaal Charles is available, he's mine...I won't have a QB, but there will be a bunch available, I may just run the table the 1st two rounds and grab runningbacks (I love acquiring runningbacks).

That all being said, I appreciate the insight...I know the safe pick is Cam, Harvin, Cobb, it's a solid foundation, but Cam didn't do well last season until late, Brees is consistent day-in, day-out. I hated last season going back and forth with RG3 and Newton.

I don't want to hog all the advice, anyone that wants insight on their team feel free to ask their own questions.

I'm getting excited for the season to start.
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Old 07-10-2013, 07:22 PM   #19
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I get what you're saying, but I have a very hard time agreeing that the difference between Jones and Harvin/Cobb is bigger than keeping one of your other options over Gates.

You've basically got two lineups to choose from. You could have one of the following lineups to build off after the #2 pick:

Newton - Charles/Richardson - Harvin - Cobb
Brees/Charles - Jones - Cobb - Gates

I'm taking option 1 every time.
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Old 07-11-2013, 01:52 AM   #20
Danny
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I get what you're saying, but I have a very hard time agreeing that the difference between Jones and Harvin/Cobb is bigger than keeping one of your other options over Gates.

You've basically got two lineups to choose from. You could have one of the following lineups to build off after the #2 pick:

Newton - Charles/Richardson - Harvin - Cobb
Brees/Charles - Jones - Cobb - Gates

I'm taking option 1 every time.

He's not, this is why it's better to use data instead of a subjective view. Statistically based on average projections the difference between jones and harvin is less than between newton and gates. Putting Brees in there is not valid cause its Brees instead of someone else you could take. There is no way I would take Brees over Trent Richardson, especially with you having no rb.
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Old 07-11-2013, 07:30 AM   #21
Qwikshot
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I'm not saying no to Newton-Cobb-Harvin...I just realized though that the owner who picks first may opt for J Charles, leaving Brees out...

If it were me, I'd grab Charles to compliment AP, the owner has Hakim Nicks and Brandon LaFell as his two other keepers...I could see him grabbing Brees again, because that's his QB, but if I were in his position, I'd take Charles.

If I choose to forgo Brees, then I take Richardson or Alfred Morris. I also have another draft pick in this round. I know there will be a run on runningback, so grabbing 3 in the first two rounds should offset issues...I love using my flex spot for a runningback.

I appreciate the discussion and insight.
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Old 07-11-2013, 08:53 AM   #22
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What are the thought on Amendola in a PPR league? his salary is $5 out of $200 to spend on players.
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Old 07-11-2013, 10:12 AM   #23
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Definitely worth 5 bucks
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Old 07-11-2013, 11:14 AM   #24
Qwikshot
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What are the thought on Amendola in a PPR league? his salary is $5 out of $200 to spend on players.

5 bucks, sure...
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Old 07-11-2013, 12:07 PM   #25
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After reading more of this discussion and seeing more of what your options might be, I think I agree that you might be better off keeping Newton and rolling the dice on Charles.

If you lose out and your consolation prize is Richardson, that's not so bad.

Yeah...

I figured it would go like this:

Worse case
Owner 1: Charles (will probably keep AP, Nicks, Witten)
Me: Richardson (will probably keep Newton, Cobb, Harvin)
Owner 3: A Morris (will probably keep McCoy, Cruz, Vernon Davis)
Owner 4: S Jax (Spiller, Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson)
Owner 5: MJD (Arian Foster, Dez Bryant, Andrew Luck)
Owner 6: Forte (Rodgers, Gore, Bowe)
Owner 7: Brees (Doug Martin, Steven Ridley, Jimmy Graham)
Me (I have Owner 8's first two picks): Chris Johnson (ARRRGHHH)
Owner 9: Julio Jones or Brandon Marshall (Rice, Welker, Matt Ryan)
Owner 10: Julio Jones or Brandon Marshall (AJ Green, Brady, Sproles)

Now I know Owner 10 should probably grab an RB, but there is a drop after Chris Johnson (Berry ranks him 18th overall, 16th runningback, next available is DeMarco Murray at 35th overall, perhaps, 10 grabs him on the swingback)

Best Case:
Owner 1: Brees
me: Charles
Owner 3: Richarson
Owner 4: Morris
Owner 5: SJax
Owner 6: MJD
Owner 7: Brees - with Doug Martin and Steven Ridley, it seems a no brainer to grab Brees and compliment with Jimmy Graham
Owner 8: (me again): Forte
Owner 9: Chris Johnson
Owner 10: Julio Jones/Brandon Marshall
Owner 10: DeMarco Murray
Owner 9: Julio Jones/ Brandon Marshall (whatever is left)
Owner 8 (me again): David Wilson/Montee Ball/Lamar Miller/Le'Vonn Bell
-yes I will reach, I think Wilson has the best prospects, Ball may be a RBBC, I like Bell better, critics like Miller but I have yet to see anything big on him

By the time it rolls back, I may pick another running back, and I have two MORE picks in the following round...perhaps Gronkowski?!? Then I'm down a round, but then I'll see if there are more backs or finally line up a receiver (really like the Rams rookie Tavon Austin, but I'm betting Larry Fitzgerald will still be around)
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Old 07-11-2013, 12:15 PM   #26
Vince, Pt. II
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I'm in the keep Cam Newton boat, despite the fact that I also agree with you that he's not going to be all that great moving forward.

Thread jacking a little, how about keeper LEAGUE discussion? I'm trying to talk my college buddies into converting our league (now in its 10th year) to a keeper league. Thoughts on the best implementation? I like the idea of few keepers (3 or less) with an associated 'penalty' for keeping them, allowing people to choose to use fewer keepers as a legitimate strategy (and softening the blow for a crappy team with an old keeper who retires/gets sucky).

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Old 07-11-2013, 12:36 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II View Post
I'm in the keep Cam Newton boat, despite the fact that I also agree with you that he's not going to be all that great moving forward.

Thread jacking a little, how about keeper LEAGUE discussion? I'm trying to talk my college buddies into converting our league (now in its 10th year) to a keeper league. Thoughts on the best implementation? I like the idea of few keepers (3 or less) with an associated 'penalty' for keeping them, allowing people to choose to use fewer keepers as a legitimate strategy (and softening the blow for a crappy team with an old keeper who retires/gets sucky).

Vince, our league keeps it simple...you get to keep one of your 1st 3 draft picks and then any two from round four onwards, you cannot keep more than 2 players at the same position (no RB, RB, RB), you cannot keep any player that was on the waiver wire, only drafted players that stayed on a team (you can keep a player that was drafted and traded to another team long as that team keeps them on their roster the whole season).

I suppose you could forfeit a keeper and get compensation for the round they were drafted, but I think the key thing to a keeper league is keeping a player, I go into this league know 3 players must be kept and by the end of the draft I know which players I'll keep all season unless I trade for a player (Harvin was a round 4 player I traded for, knowing I'd be able to keep him for the following season should I want to)

After three years, the league resets, all keepers go back into the pool and we start anew, that way, there are no overpowered teams, it also makes year 3 a free for all with trades because nothing carries over save draft picks (yahoo league)
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Old 07-11-2013, 12:37 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II View Post
I'm in the keep Cam Newton boat, despite the fact that I also agree with you that he's not going to be all that great moving forward.

Thread jacking a little, how about keeper LEAGUE discussion? I'm trying to talk my college buddies into converting our league (now in its 10th year) to a keeper league. Thoughts on the best implementation? I like the idea of few keepers (3 or less) with an associated 'penalty' for keeping them, allowing people to choose to use fewer keepers as a legitimate strategy (and softening the blow for a crappy team with an old keeper who retires/gets sucky).

I will probably take a flier on Kaepernick.
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Old 07-11-2013, 12:58 PM   #29
Vince, Pt. II
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Thanks for the explanation, Qwik. I'm really just looking into what kinds of keeper leagues are out there, as I have very little experience with them.
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Old 07-11-2013, 01:13 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Qwikshot View Post
I will probably take a flier on Kaepernick.

You guys are crazy. While i almost Always wait in drafts for a qb, Newton is a fantasy stud. Even last year in 6 pt passomg td leagues he was the 7th best fantasy QB and the year before he was 5th. In 4 pt td leagues he was 4th each of last two years
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Old 07-11-2013, 01:28 PM   #31
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You guys are crazy. While i almost Always wait in drafts for a qb, Newton is a fantasy stud. Even last year in 6 pt passomg td leagues he was the 7th best fantasy QB and the year before he was 5th. In 4 pt td leagues he was 4th each of last two years

I didn't mean in the first few rounds...I did the same thing last year grabbing RG3 in like the 13th round and was able to move him for draft picks later when the team was lost.

Newton is talented, but he's also on a terrible team, he's got a year older Steve Smith and a maligned running game (hence his goal line ability), sooner or later that stuff causes injury and poor performance...

Going with Newton, keeping Harvin and Cobb, I'll probably go crazy on running backs..
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Old 07-11-2013, 03:05 PM   #32
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You guys are crazy. While i almost Always wait in drafts for a qb, Newton is a fantasy stud. Even last year in 6 pt passomg td leagues he was the 7th best fantasy QB and the year before he was 5th. In 4 pt td leagues he was 4th each of last two years

Most leagues are 10 team, right? If you have the 7th best QB you're worse than most.
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Old 07-11-2013, 03:39 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II View Post
Most leagues are 10 team, right? If you have the 7th best QB you're worse than most.

Cam Newton sucked early in 2012, cost me a few games while RG3 lit things up. I play in a Head to Head league.
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Old 07-11-2013, 06:35 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II View Post
Most leagues are 10 team, right? If you have the 7th best QB you're worse than most.

But at least you're keeping a starting caliber QB, even if he ends up as your backup, rather than a backup TE.
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Old 07-11-2013, 08:38 PM   #35
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And if memory serves, depending on scoring, he was a top 5 QB over the second half of last season. I didn't have any shares in him but I seem to recall him and Wilson both putting up big fantasy numbers over the last 8ish games.
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Old 07-12-2013, 01:07 AM   #36
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QB seems deeper than ever. I'm fine with 1-13 being my starting QB with a slight edge to Brees & Rodgers. At least going into the draft, I'm not even worried about the QB position.
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Old 07-12-2013, 02:09 AM   #37
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But at least you're keeping a starting caliber QB, even if he ends up as your backup, rather than a backup TE.

The choice there is Cam or Jones, since he can only keep one of his top three picks.
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Old 07-12-2013, 05:06 AM   #38
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No it's not, the choice is cam and harvin or jones and gates
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Old 07-12-2013, 10:54 AM   #39
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Just reading up on some more of the details and I had a thought...

What about this:
- Cut Newton and take Brees/Charles with the #2
- Just let Gates go away, or keep him if you have the free roster spots
- Keep Jones and the better of Harvin/Cobb
- POSSIBLY REDRAFT the other of Harvin/Cobb with your 2nd or 3rd round pick

According to the players that were listed as being available in the draft, it looks like there's a real possibility that whoever you release from Harvin/Cobb will probably be there early into the 3rd round.

I think then that it doesn't matter if I keep Gates, perhaps he is negative value, perhaps he gets ~ 7 tds, perhaps I just cut him after the 1st week.

Truth be told, I'll probably do Newton, Harvin, Cobb...there is a good possibility that Julio may be around when I pick next (I have 2, 8, 13, 19 and 33 in the 1st 4 rounds)
but I'll probably focus on runningbacks

I would love Charles to fall to me, I really hope the owner decides that Brees is too valuable to lose, but I suspect he'll grow a brain and realize that Charles/AP is too strong a tandem.

Most roto sites have Julio as a bigger factor than Harvin and Cobb, the possibility of having Julio, a top three WR, with Brees a top three QB would be very tempting...and should Brees be selected over Charles, I got Julio, Charles, Cobb/Harvin and a scrub at TE, that's a hell of a core. Brees should be more consistent than Newton but Newton has red zone rush potential and those TDs add up.

Do I consider Brees better than Newton, yes...would I draft Brees if I had Newton, no.

I just think I was overthinking, you keep the strongest team, either option would allow me not to worry about WR for a few rounds.

Newton, Cobb, Harvin, Richardson?
Julio, Harvin OR Cobb, Brees, Gates?

If I choose Brees, I would lose out on the following running backs assuming Charles was picked prior to me:

Richardson at 3
Morris at 4
SJax at 5
MJD at 6
Forte at 7
Leaving me Chris Johnson at 8 (have this draft pick) - I have owned Chris Johnson I'm not sure Chance Warmack revitalizes him...or DeMarco Murray who is talented and injury prone...if I don't like them, Matt Berry has the next RB slated as David Wilson WAYYYYYY down at 47th overall.

Gronk would be available, but he's so damn injury prone and would make keeping Gates stupid (as if it wasn't already)

Now...if I keep Newton, Harvin, Cobb assuming Charles is taken

I would get Richardson at 2
Morris at 3
SJAX at 4
MJD at 5
Forte at 6
Chris Johnson at 7
AT 8, I could redraft Julio, I could risk on Gronk, I could take a long look at Brandon Marshall (assuming the owner doesn't keep him instead of Jimmy Graham or Matt Stafford), if he drops Jimmy Graham, I'm all over that at 8
Or I could reach for Wilson/Ball/Bell/Lamar Miller and then on the swingback grab another RB or two (I have two more picks before being shut out in the 6th round and then an early pick in the 7th)

It just seems after that, the case is for Newton/Harvin/Cobb doesn't it?
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Old 07-12-2013, 11:23 AM   #40
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Qwik, even if you don't keep newton, Richardson is the way to go over Brees abc then pick up a qb later. You need a rb at #2

Also what is your lineup requirement and is this ppr?
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Old 07-12-2013, 11:37 AM   #41
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Qwik, even if you don't keep newton, Richardson is the way to go over Brees abc then pick up a qb later. You need a rb at #2

Also what is your lineup requirement and is this ppr?

QB
RB
RB
WR
WR
TE
flex (RB/WR)
K
ST

Yeah...it makes ALOT more sense to forgo Brees...though I think he won't get past the 7th spot owner which means I may be able to get Forte.

Newton Harvin Cobb Richardson Forte is a nasty force.
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Old 07-12-2013, 11:41 AM   #42
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Wow since you can start 3 rb that makes them even more valuable than qbs than is typical

Regardless of keeper I would take at least 3 rb with your first 4 picks
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Old 07-12-2013, 11:42 AM   #43
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Just to give some numbers, using your rosters and 6 pt for tds, Richardson is a + 95 and brees a +58
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Old 07-12-2013, 11:46 AM   #44
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Newton is only a +16, jones a + 59 Cobb +44 and harvin + 40

What is your full roster of possible keepers out of curiosity?
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Old 07-12-2013, 11:47 AM   #45
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And since yiu didn't answer is the league ppr at all?
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Old 07-12-2013, 12:01 PM   #46
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And since yiu didn't answer is the league ppr at all?

Sorry Yahoo Non-PPR league...QB get 6 points for throwing TDs 1 pt for 25 yards thrown

6 pts per TD, 1 pt per 10 yards REC/Rush
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Old 07-12-2013, 12:02 PM   #47
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K, do you have any running backs on your roster?
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Old 07-12-2013, 12:03 PM   #48
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Newton is only a +16, jones a + 59 Cobb +44 and harvin + 40

What is your full roster of possible keepers out of curiosity?

Cam Newton Julio Jones Percy Harvin Randy Cobb Willis McGahee Antoinio Brown Antonio Gates are all keeper eligible but if I keep Julio I lose Newton, if I keep Newton I lose Jones...I cannot keep 3 WRs so one has to go.
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Old 07-12-2013, 12:05 PM   #49
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K, do you have any running backs on your roster?

None that are keeper eligible...I also have Larry Fitzgerald but he was a top three pick

My final running backs when I went into tank were:

Vince Ballard
LaMichael James
Daniel Thomas
Beanie Wells
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Old 07-12-2013, 12:08 PM   #50
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K id stick with newton, harvin, and Cobb then
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