Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424) - Page 29

hoopsguy · 10-29-2006, 08:26 AM

OK, I would suggest that on the topic of a conversion that either Alan or I (if you start with the assumption that one or both of us are not Zombies) would have been toxic last night in terms of conversion targets. If IA comes out with one of us as trusted, I think you can bank on the fact that they would not have been converted last night.

hoopsguy · 10-29-2006, 08:27 AM

Chubby, can you tell us the order of actions for:
1. Conversion via Infector
2. IA scan on a target

hoopsguy · 10-29-2006, 08:28 AM

Spleen, can you give a little more reason for why LSG? I think there are multiple people who could be considered UTR ...

hoopsguy · 10-29-2006, 08:30 AM

For example, Spleen has been UTR ...
Not that I'm expecting a self-vote, but an UTR player - who was pretty vocal as a villager in previous games, as I learned first hand in Tombstone - calling out another player as UTR seems a little odd.

Alan T · 10-29-2006, 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

We still have four people left to check in - after I have seen all of those people post in the thread I'll start to adopt the idea that someone has scanned you as STARS and elected to keep the info to themselves.

Obviously that is one way to play it. But having a two man circle of trust (self + Alan) isn't as valuable, in my opinion, as having a larger circle today for this specific vote. We get one Z

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[/php]ombie and we may be able to start establishing links, direct or indirect, to the rest of them. I think that is worth the risk associated with a role reveal. The bodyguard can protect part of the circle of trust, and potentially the IA can scan another person the following day.

We are not going to have many more "following days" if we miss on today's lynch. If the Zombies started with 3 and converted a 4th we are on the brink now. I'm hoping they started with only 2, which leaves both Umbrella and STARS with a still-realistic chance to win.

I think the reasoning that someone else put forth was pretty sound to explain why there would be only 2 zombies to start. Night 1 = 1 kill , obviously a team up. Night 2 = 2 kills, obviously they went solo kills. Night 3 = 1 kill.

So that means one of three possibilities:

1) Started with 2 zombies, who teamed up night 1, solo killed night 2, solo kill + conversion night 3.

2) Started with 2 zombies, who teamed up night 1, solo killed night 2, team up night 3, saving conversion for a CoT to be formed from Seer outing himself and picking one of the trusted Stars to convert.

3) Started with 3 zombies (2 + infector). team up night 1 (infector has no kill ability), solo kills night 2 (Infector has no kill ability), team up night 3, infiltrator converts.

4) Started with 3 zombies (2 + infector). Team up night 1 (infector has no kill ability), solo kills night 2 (infector has no kill ability), team up night 3 (infector has no kill ability) and infector doesnt convert anyone while waiting on CoT to form and nab a trusted stars member for conversion.

Now the rules make it pretty clear that -all- zombies have night kill abilities, so I think its very unlikely #3 or 4 exists. I think the most likely scenerio is#1.

The other possibility is:

5)

Alan T · 10-29-2006, 08:32 AM

lol my daughter is climbing all over me and submitted it before i was ready by falling on my laptop..

anyways #5 is there are more than 2 zombies, but for some reason on night 2 they had 2 solo kill while the other(s) didn't solo kill. This also would mean on nights with team ups they had someone just sitting around without trying to solo kill.

So I think its more likely there are just 2 with the possibility of 1 and a small chance at 2 converts (to come tonight or later in the game)

Chubby · 10-29-2006, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chubby, can you tell us the order of actions for:
1. Conversion via Infector
2. IA scan on a target

That is the correct order. The order of operations doesn't really help you much IMO and I had been asked in PM (and gave the answer) so it's only fair I answer it here as well.

hoopsguy · 10-29-2006, 08:36 AM

I'm hopeful that we only had two starting Zombies. I think that makes sense, but I also try to plan for the worst-case scenario. I don't think it helps to hope for the best when planning end-game strategy. Expect the worst, be happy with results that are not as grim as you forecast.

On another note, there is also an outside chance that there was a failed conversion last night, although I do not know how to work that into our calculations.

Alan T · 10-29-2006, 08:42 AM

My guess is that an attempted conversion stopped by vaccination would have been known by the person who was attempted to be converted. But I have no proof in the rules of that, so its just a guess.

I wonder if thats what the Umbrella doctor can research. Something to do with a vaccination, that either allows, one of the following to happen:

1) The umbrella scientist can pick an umbrella person each night (each other night? each third night?) to vaccinate?

2) When umbrella scientist dies, it allows some vaccinations to be found and somehow it gets distributed? (Random distribution? Pre-selected at start that gets unlocked when umbrella scientist dies?)

Both of those feel like a reach. Just trying to figure out how vaccinated or not enters play, and how to tie it into existing game roles.

Since being lucky or not seemed to be distributed at the start randomly, its possible the same is with being vaccinated.

hoopsguy · 10-29-2006, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Abilties With No Faction Bearing

*Vaccinated - Immune to being infected by the zombie virus. How did they come to be immune? Is there a cure?

*Lucky - Day vote counts double as long as the player voted for a member of an opposing faction the previous day.

These abilities are pre-assigned to players but are not visibile to to anyone until player's death.

Sounds like the ability is pre-assigned, based on the rules.

BrianD · 10-29-2006, 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

Brian, I'm curious about your reason for thinking that there's been no votes for the infector. I assume it is that you figure they've been trying not to be noticed but wanted to make sure.

I'm also willing at this point (barring an IAD find of zombie/Umbrella) to also start looking at some of the UTR players. Whatever side hoops and Alan are on, I really don't think they're zombies, and with the possible conversion last night, I think that needs to be our focus.

So who do you have in mind besides LSG who I believe you brought up yesterday?

Here is my logic. Let's assume there HAS been a vote for the infector. Who could that be? Either Fouts, Sndvls, AlanT, me, Anxiety, Glengoyne.

I'm going to take Anxiety and Glengoyne off of the list. They each got one stray vote so either of them could be the infector. I also ended up with only one stray vote, but there were more on me at one time. I know that I'm not the infector, but I guess nobody else knows that.

AlanT has been very vocal and leading the charge on most people. I don't think he would do this as the infector. He even asked people to lynch him if he was wrong on St.Cronin which I could see him doing as an ordinary zombie, but not the infector.

SnDvls picked up a few votes on Day 2 and then got the first vote on Day 3. If he was the infector I would think there would be more people jumping to his defense after an early first vote. Zombies might be cool enough to wait it out since it was a good guess that St.Cronin was eventually going to get lynched, but I would have at least expected someone to lay the groundwork for a SnDvls defense just in case.

This leaves Fouts. He got a stray vote on Day 1 which could have been a PC vote. If he was the infector, this should have scared the zombies. It might have been a little obvious if they had killed NTN on Night 1, but they wouldn't have waited past Night 2. NTN did get killed after returning his vote to Fouts on Day 3, but that still seems too long to wait on a reasonable PC choice.

My reasoning for Fouts is probably the weakest, but he just doesn't "feel" right for the infector. I'm willing to admit this one may be bad logic, but I'm really looking elsewhere for the infector.

The trouble with my line of thought is that we have no idea what to think about Anxiety, Path, Glengoyne, Mr.Wed, ChiefRum, LSG, and Spleen.

I initially picked LSG for some drive-by attacks on people, but I could have easily picked anyone from the list above.

BrianD · 10-29-2006, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

By the way, it was completely obvious that NTN would be the target last night if he was not a zombie. Day 1 vote - Cronin and Bullet dead, only stray vote was NTN on Fouts.

My only problem with this is that NTN voted for Fouts twice. If your only power is for people to look back at your votes after you have died, wouldn't you spread your votes around? If NTN had been the PC, he would have only fingered one person. That would seem like a waste of a role. I'm not saying your reasoning for why he was killed is wrong, but it should have been clear that he wasn't the PC.

Glengoyne · 10-29-2006, 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianD

Here is my logic. Let's assume there HAS been a vote for the infector. Who could that be? Either Fouts, Sndvls, AlanT, me, Anxiety, Glengoyne.

I'm going to take Anxiety and Glengoyne off of the list. They each got one stray vote so either of them could be the infector. I also ended up with only one stray vote, but there were more on me at one time. I know that I'm not the infector, but I guess nobody else knows that.
...

I like lists, and I like to work from them. I'm just missing something here. What is the purpose of assuming the Infector, as opposed to any single zombie, has received a vote?

Is it to see if anyone came to their rescue? Also to see who came to their rescue?

While I started this post to question your basic premise, I now think I see where you are going. Do we have anyone who meets the profile?

I gotta go run off to church now, but I'm interested to see where this goes. if this goes. This premise may not be the strongest thing we have to go on. I was contemplating the chances that Alan could be a zombie, hiding in plain sight, but I'm not really satisfied with that position. I think his actions fit an Umbrella much better, driving discussion of non-umbrellas to get stars lynched.

BrianD · 10-29-2006, 10:59 AM

My infector-spotting idea would have been more helpful yesterday before the first chance of infection. As it is, there is no chance of infection tonight, but I think a 50% chance tomorrow. Today it is important to find any zombie, but the infector would be nice.

Lorena · 10-29-2006, 11:25 AM

Thanks for letting me in the game Chubby.

I'm about halfway through the thread and have a lot of reading to do tonight before lynch time so bare with me.

On the self-voting issue and leaving a game, I have done both out of frustration, so I know where st.cronin is coming from. I put a lot of thought into it that sometimes I have to stop and tell myself that it's ONLY A GAME.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to getting caught up; it has been entertaining read so far.

Mr. Wednesday · 10-29-2006, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianD

SnDvls picked up a few votes on Day 2 and then got the first vote on Day 3. If he was the infector I would think there would be more people jumping to his defense after an early first vote. Zombies might be cool enough to wait it out since it was a good guess that St.Cronin was eventually going to get lynched, but I would have at least expected someone to lay the groundwork for a SnDvls defense just in case.

Sndvls has been very UTR, including IIRC a couple of drive-by votes. I'm not sure there was ever enough of a groundswell to be worth mobilizing a defense, but I could be wrong there. (Not to mention that, if we presume there were only two zombies, there would only have been on besides Sndvls to begin mounting a defense.)

LoneStarGirl · 10-29-2006, 12:08 PM

Vote Sndvls

I am not going to retalliate on spleen yet, but Sndvls has been flying under the radar and has put in a lot of weird votes, which Glen agreed to. Out of everybody he seems the more obvious choice

Chief Rum · 10-29-2006, 12:23 PM

I would encourage the UTR approach as well. I think the guys being vocal have been too vocal to be likely zombies (although Umbrella is still a strong possibility). It would be an extremely bold play for a zombie to try and pull off what Alan and hoops, for instance, have been doing and be zombies.

And, yes, I know that includes me as UTR. Of course, there seem to be a ton of UTR in this game, with only a handful driving the discussions. So I am not sure if this helps much.

At least I have the excuse of working a lot. I don't know what everyone else's excuse is, but it does make me suspicious.

Like Glengoyne, I, too, am not sure why we should make any assumptions based on the infector having received a vote. I think we should concentrate instead on veteran players playing quiet.

hoopsguy · 10-29-2006, 12:25 PM

Votes for SnDvls so far:
D1: Bullet (middle of the pack)
D2: Alan (tipped vote to 5-4 vs Cronin)
D3: Glengoyne (only one voting for him)

Evaluation: reasoning for Alan seemed faulty at time, can't really evaluate whether he made a "correct call" without knowledge on Alan. Made good vote yesterday not going with Cronin, for whatever that is worth.

hoopsguy · 10-29-2006, 12:35 PM

In terms of evaluating UTR, here are post counts:

Alan 346
Hoops 207
Fouts 87
BrianD 74
Glen 70
Path 63
MrW 58
LSG 41
SnDvls 39
Spleen 28
Chief 26
Anxiety/DC 17

BrianD · 10-29-2006, 12:40 PM

Hoops, what are your thoughts about LSG?

path12 · 10-29-2006, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I would like to see us go after someone that is UTR, as BrianD suggested. Other than LSG, I don't know who it should be. So...

Well, you would be one.

My list of people who have been rather utr would include Anxiety/DC (though that may be due to illness), Chief Rum, LSG, SnDvls to an extent, and Spleen.

hoopsguy · 10-29-2006, 12:48 PM

Brian, she is one of the people who did not vote for Cronin in either of the last two days - frankly I'm not sure what to make of that piece of info. Outside of that, I have not been able to get any kind of bead on her at all.

path12 · 10-29-2006, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

lol my daughter is climbing all over me and submitted it before i was ready by falling on my laptop..

anyways #5 is there are more than 2 zombies, but for some reason on night 2 they had 2 solo kill while the other(s) didn't solo kill. This also would mean on nights with team ups they had someone just sitting around without trying to solo kill.

So I think its more likely there are just 2 with the possibility of 1 and a small chance at 2 converts (to come tonight or later in the game)

I have another possibility that comes to mind: Three zombies and the infector was saved in order to prevent any chance of hitting a bodyguard or being seen. So then it could be night 1 team of 2 kill, night 2 either 1 two person kill or two solos with one sitting out, and yesterday a team kill and conversion.

hoopsguy · 10-29-2006, 12:56 PM

What I'm struggling with today is trying to figure out who are my STARS allies. By process of elimination, I think I can rule out a big chunk of people for Police Chief. Internal Affairs is a little harder to break down, but I'm trying to do that as well. Since there is nothing that resembles a public Circle of Trust, I'm trying to construct models for a private one.

But the voting records are a mess.

BrianD · 10-29-2006, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Brian, she is one of the people who did not vote for Cronin in either of the last two days - frankly I'm not sure what to make of that piece of info. Outside of that, I have not been able to get any kind of bead on her at all.

The reason I ask is because you briefly linked yourself with Cronin and she put you on top of her suspect list. I point out the drive-by and she put me on the top of her suspect list. Those two drive-bys seemed odd. I'm wondering if she is just trying to stir up trouble.

path12 · 10-29-2006, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

In terms of evaluating UTR, here are post counts:

Alan 346
Hoops 207
Fouts 87
BrianD 74
Glen 70
Path 63
MrW 58
LSG 41
SnDvls 39
Spleen 28
Chief 26
Anxiety/DC 17

I generally hate using post counts to analyze, but I'm struck by the fact that Spleen was 3rd in posts with 200-odd last game and is so much quieter this one.

Alan T · 10-29-2006, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

I generally hate using post counts to analyze, but I'm struck by the fact that Spleen was 3rd in posts with 200-odd last game and is so much quieter this one.

Well I read spleens posts as very fishy back in day 2, and actually thought that he would be the next to go after if cronin turned up bad. Since Cronin didn't turn up bad, I really didn't follow that lead any longer.

If I had to rate folks, I would do something like this:

Trust:

Medium trust:

Some trust:

Neutral:
Chief
Anxiety/DC

Some distrust:
BrianD
Glen
LSG
SnDvls

Medium distrust:
Fouts
Path
MrW
Spleen

Distrust:
Hoops

Yeah... as you can tell, I havent really felt good about anyone so far this game.

hoopsguy · 10-29-2006, 01:14 PM

Alan, are Spleen's "fishy" posts on Day 2 predicated on Cronin being bad? I know they were for you at the time, but how about on a re-read given current info?

hoopsguy · 10-29-2006, 01:19 PM

Alan, if I assume that you are STARS then Spleen's voting record is pretty dicey. Votes for you on Day 2, is middle of the pack voting for Cronin yesterday. We have a change in posting behavior from previous games. And today he votes for LSG for being UTR. He is right at the top of people I suspect at the moment.

I'm moving to the point where I have to believe Alan is STARS - if the Internal Affairs person has not viewed him by now they are just crazy. If they have viewed him as anything but STARS and not spoken up they are really hurting the team. So, I'm going to have to get to the point where I have to start constructing theories with Alan on my side, even if I am at the bottom of his trust list.

Alan T · 10-29-2006, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, are Spleen's "fishy" posts on Day 2 predicated on Cronin being bad? I know they were for you at the time, but how about on a re-read given current info?

"Fishy" posts aren't really predicated on someone being bad, they just smell off. Just I would have placed much more credence to them if he had turned up bad. Spleen has definitly played this game differently than he played the last game.

Right now I don't really feel strongly enough about him to push actively for his lynch, but I do feel strongly enough that I don't know if I would trust him being the one pushing to look at UtR people right now. Its a bit too much of the pot calling the kettle black.

The person he chose Lonestargirl has seemed odd in her posts to me, so I don't find as much fault in the person he chose, but sometimes those types of things are too easy to set someone up for coming across the wrong way.

Right now I kind of view Lonestargirl and Sndvls both in the same light.. THey both did hit and runs with faulty logic, but I can't place a finger on the motive for why they would try to stage what it would seem they were trying to stage there.

Mr.W and Spleen I both put in a different collumn where they didn't do the hit and runs that LSG and Sndvls did, but instead they were using more sound reason but in a way to shape things more so.. (or I should say I can find possible motives easy to believe for why a bad guy would post like they are posting.)

I don't really trust any of the bunch though.. just find it funny Spleen is driving the UtR hunt.

Alan T · 10-29-2006, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, if I assume that you are STARS then Spleen's voting record is pretty dicey. Votes for you on Day 2, is middle of the pack voting for Cronin yesterday. We have a change in posting behavior from previous games. And today he votes for LSG for being UTR. He is right at the top of people I suspect at the moment.

I'm moving to the point where I have to believe Alan is STARS - if the Internal Affairs person has not viewed him by now they are just crazy. If they have viewed him as anything but STARS and not spoken up they are really hurting the team. So, I'm going to have to get to the point where I have to start constructing theories with Alan on my side, even if I am at the bottom of his trust list.

I don't place any weight for someone voting for me on those days as meaning they are possibly bad. I don't think the police chief is in the game, and only IA would know as far as stars goes that I am good. In fact, the only people who would know that I wasn't bad would be the bad guys.

When it was Cronin vs me in the race mid-day 2 if Cronin had been bad, then I think some weight could be put on it, but since Cronin was good, there was nothing to save.

So voting for me on day 2 isn't really a sign in my mad that you are bad or good. In some ways I can almost trust those people a hair more.

All of my distrust with spleen is simply based on his interaction with you (hoops) on day 2 and how it came across to me.

spleen1015 · 10-29-2006, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

I don't really trust any of the bunch though.. just find it funny Spleen is driving the UtR hunt.

But, I'm not driving it though. Twice I have publically agreed with someone who has brought it up. The first time, I didn't vote, but wanted to vote for LSG. This time, I voted for her.

You guys want me to vote for vocal players? That would mean I am voting for hoops or Alan. Screw that. I'm not going to let folks lay in the weeds and win the game.

LSG needs some more votes to get her talking. So, start voting for her.

LoneStarGirl · 10-29-2006, 01:28 PM

Sorry I haven't been participating as much this round guys, for some reason I can't get a good grasp on anything...

I just know there are so few STARS left and at least 2 zombies out there, I know I am stars, and i have a good feeling about the other one, but now its going to be difficult to split apart umbrella from Zombie.

LoneStarGirl · 10-29-2006, 01:30 PM

Why me spleen? Is it because of the boons??

There are four people with less posts than me, so how did you come to the conclusion i was bad?

LoneStarGirl · 10-29-2006, 01:30 PM

not boons.... boobs

Alan T · 10-29-2006, 01:31 PM

And then spleen and LSG both pop in at the same time to say hi

i dont have a problem with the UtR approach. I don't like letting people who don't participate in the discussion stick around without good reason. My main comment was that you are voting for someone who is being utr who has a third more posts than you

spleen1015 · 10-29-2006, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Why me spleen? Is it because of the boons??

There are four people with less posts than me, so how did you come to the conclusion i was bad?

Honestly, it is because you griped about not having an important role early in the game.

Alan spoke out a little ealier about there probably on being one vanilla STARS role left. Well, if there is only one left, I know who it is. So, it can't be you.

Alan T · 10-29-2006, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Honestly, it is because you griped about not having an important role early in the game.

Alan spoke out a little ealier about there probably on being one vanilla STARS role left. Well, if there is only one left, I know who it is. So, it can't be you.

Are you saying you have a vanilla stars role?

LoneStarGirl · 10-29-2006, 01:33 PM

Spleen, why do you believe Alant? He said cronin was bad, and you believed him then too, that is why you voted for him. And you were both wrong. I didn't vote for St. Cronin, wouldn't that say I am more 'vanilla' then you are?

LoneStarGirl · 10-29-2006, 01:33 PM

I am saying I am STARS. whatever the hell vanilla means...

spleen1015 · 10-29-2006, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Are you saying you have a vanilla stars role?

I guarantee you that I am vanilla STARS.

spleen1015 · 10-29-2006, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Spleen, why do you believe Alant? He said cronin was bad, and you believed him then too, that is why you voted for him. And you were both wrong. I didn't vote for St. Cronin, wouldn't that say I am more 'vanilla' then you are?

HA! I didn't say I believed Alan. I just said he mentioned it. I went and did the math myself. There's no more than 1 or 2 left and I don't think you are one of them.

If you are STARS, you're not vanilla.

LoneStarGirl · 10-29-2006, 01:35 PM

If you are stars spleen then we are on the same side and we need to stop picking on eachother and go after somebody else, like Glen or Sndvls

LoneStarGirl · 10-29-2006, 01:35 PM

what the hell is vanilla? someone with no special abilities? Because that is me

spleen1015 · 10-29-2006, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

not boons.... boobs

I was going to ignore this comment because it is a pretty dumbass thing to say, but alas, I can't.

Alan T · 10-29-2006, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I am saying I am STARS. whatever the hell vanilla means...

means plain role with no special abilities (like cronin)

LoneStarGirl · 10-29-2006, 01:37 PM

Spleen if i highlighted all the dumbass stuff you said I'd be here all day. But I choose not to dwell on stuff that is insignificant to the game. It seems you are trying to take attention off yourself.

Unvote SNDVLS

Vote Spleen1015

LoneStarGirl · 10-29-2006, 01:38 PM

hoops you are being quiet... that isn't like you.

LoneStarGirl · 10-29-2006, 01:39 PM

And why do you think there is no police chief Alant? Couldn't it be Anxiety or Chief? Somebody with not a lot of posts because of time constraints?

10-29-2006, 12:23 PM	#1418
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	I would encourage the UTR approach as well. I think the guys being vocal have been too vocal to be likely zombies (although Umbrella is still a strong possibility). It would be an extremely bold play for a zombie to try and pull off what Alan and hoops, for instance, have been doing and be zombies. And, yes, I know that includes me as UTR. Of course, there seem to be a ton of UTR in this game, with only a handful driving the discussions. So I am not sure if this helps much. At least I have the excuse of working a lot. I don't know what everyone else's excuse is, but it does make me suspicious. Like Glengoyne, I, too, am not sure why we should make any assumptions based on the infector having received a vote. I think we should concentrate instead on veteran players playing quiet. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

10-29-2006, 08:26 AM	#1401
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	OK, I would suggest that on the topic of a conversion that either Alan or I (if you start with the assumption that one or both of us are not Zombies) would have been toxic last night in terms of conversion targets. If IA comes out with one of us as trusted, I think you can bank on the fact that they would not have been converted last night.

10-29-2006, 08:27 AM	#1402
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Chubby, can you tell us the order of actions for: 1. Conversion via Infector 2. IA scan on a target

10-29-2006, 08:28 AM	#1403
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Spleen, can you give a little more reason for why LSG? I think there are multiple people who could be considered UTR ...

10-29-2006, 08:30 AM	#1404
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	For example, Spleen has been UTR ... Not that I'm expecting a self-vote, but an UTR player - who was pretty vocal as a villager in previous games, as I learned first hand in Tombstone - calling out another player as UTR seems a little odd.

10-29-2006, 08:32 AM	#1406
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	lol my daughter is climbing all over me and submitted it before i was ready by falling on my laptop.. anyways #5 is there are more than 2 zombies, but for some reason on night 2 they had 2 solo kill while the other(s) didn't solo kill. This also would mean on nights with team ups they had someone just sitting around without trying to solo kill. So I think its more likely there are just 2 with the possibility of 1 and a small chance at 2 converts (to come tonight or later in the game)

10-29-2006, 08:36 AM	#1408
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I'm hopeful that we only had two starting Zombies. I think that makes sense, but I also try to plan for the worst-case scenario. I don't think it helps to hope for the best when planning end-game strategy. Expect the worst, be happy with results that are not as grim as you forecast. On another note, there is also an outside chance that there was a failed conversion last night, although I do not know how to work that into our calculations.

10-29-2006, 08:42 AM	#1409
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	My guess is that an attempted conversion stopped by vaccination would have been known by the person who was attempted to be converted. But I have no proof in the rules of that, so its just a guess. I wonder if thats what the Umbrella doctor can research. Something to do with a vaccination, that either allows, one of the following to happen: 1) The umbrella scientist can pick an umbrella person each night (each other night? each third night?) to vaccinate? 2) When umbrella scientist dies, it allows some vaccinations to be found and somehow it gets distributed? (Random distribution? Pre-selected at start that gets unlocked when umbrella scientist dies?) Both of those feel like a reach. Just trying to figure out how vaccinated or not enters play, and how to tie it into existing game roles. Since being lucky or not seemed to be distributed at the start randomly, its possible the same is with being vaccinated.

10-29-2006, 10:59 AM	#1414
BrianD Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	My infector-spotting idea would have been more helpful yesterday before the first chance of infection. As it is, there is no chance of infection tonight, but I think a 50% chance tomorrow. Today it is important to find any zombie, but the infector would be nice.

10-29-2006, 11:25 AM	#1415
Lorena Unregistered Join Date: May 2004	Thanks for letting me in the game Chubby. I'm about halfway through the thread and have a lot of reading to do tonight before lynch time so bare with me. On the self-voting issue and leaving a game, I have done both out of frustration, so I know where st.cronin is coming from. I put a lot of thought into it that sometimes I have to stop and tell myself that it's ONLY A GAME. Anyway, I'm looking forward to getting caught up; it has been entertaining read so far.

10-29-2006, 12:08 PM	#1417
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	Vote Sndvls I am not going to retalliate on spleen yet, but Sndvls has been flying under the radar and has put in a lot of weird votes, which Glen agreed to. Out of everybody he seems the more obvious choice

10-29-2006, 12:25 PM	#1419
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Votes for SnDvls so far: D1: Bullet (middle of the pack) D2: Alan (tipped vote to 5-4 vs Cronin) D3: Glengoyne (only one voting for him) Evaluation: reasoning for Alan seemed faulty at time, can't really evaluate whether he made a "correct call" without knowledge on Alan. Made good vote yesterday not going with Cronin, for whatever that is worth.

10-29-2006, 12:35 PM	#1420
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	In terms of evaluating UTR, here are post counts: Alan 346 Hoops 207 Fouts 87 BrianD 74 Glen 70 Path 63 MrW 58 LSG 41 SnDvls 39 Spleen 28 Chief 26 Anxiety/DC 17

10-29-2006, 12:40 PM	#1421
BrianD Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	Hoops, what are your thoughts about LSG?

10-29-2006, 12:48 PM	#1423
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Brian, she is one of the people who did not vote for Cronin in either of the last two days - frankly I'm not sure what to make of that piece of info. Outside of that, I have not been able to get any kind of bead on her at all.

10-29-2006, 12:56 PM	#1425
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	What I'm struggling with today is trying to figure out who are my STARS allies. By process of elimination, I think I can rule out a big chunk of people for Police Chief. Internal Affairs is a little harder to break down, but I'm trying to do that as well. Since there is nothing that resembles a public Circle of Trust, I'm trying to construct models for a private one. But the voting records are a mess.

10-29-2006, 01:14 PM	#1429
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Alan, are Spleen's "fishy" posts on Day 2 predicated on Cronin being bad? I know they were for you at the time, but how about on a re-read given current info?

10-29-2006, 01:19 PM	#1430
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Alan, if I assume that you are STARS then Spleen's voting record is pretty dicey. Votes for you on Day 2, is middle of the pack voting for Cronin yesterday. We have a change in posting behavior from previous games. And today he votes for LSG for being UTR. He is right at the top of people I suspect at the moment. I'm moving to the point where I have to believe Alan is STARS - if the Internal Affairs person has not viewed him by now they are just crazy. If they have viewed him as anything but STARS and not spoken up they are really hurting the team. So, I'm going to have to get to the point where I have to start constructing theories with Alan on my side, even if I am at the bottom of his trust list.

10-29-2006, 01:28 PM	#1434
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	Sorry I haven't been participating as much this round guys, for some reason I can't get a good grasp on anything... I just know there are so few STARS left and at least 2 zombies out there, I know I am stars, and i have a good feeling about the other one, but now its going to be difficult to split apart umbrella from Zombie.

10-29-2006, 01:30 PM	#1435
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	Why me spleen? Is it because of the boons?? There are four people with less posts than me, so how did you come to the conclusion i was bad?

10-29-2006, 01:30 PM	#1436
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	not boons.... boobs

10-29-2006, 01:31 PM	#1437
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	And then spleen and LSG both pop in at the same time to say hi i dont have a problem with the UtR approach. I don't like letting people who don't participate in the discussion stick around without good reason. My main comment was that you are voting for someone who is being utr who has a third more posts than you

10-29-2006, 01:33 PM	#1440
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	Spleen, why do you believe Alant? He said cronin was bad, and you believed him then too, that is why you voted for him. And you were both wrong. I didn't vote for St. Cronin, wouldn't that say I am more 'vanilla' then you are?

10-29-2006, 01:33 PM	#1441
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	I am saying I am STARS. whatever the hell vanilla means...

10-29-2006, 01:35 PM	#1444
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	If you are stars spleen then we are on the same side and we need to stop picking on eachother and go after somebody else, like Glen or Sndvls

10-29-2006, 01:35 PM	#1445
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	what the hell is vanilla? someone with no special abilities? Because that is me

10-29-2006, 01:37 PM	#1448
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	Spleen if i highlighted all the dumbass stuff you said I'd be here all day. But I choose not to dwell on stuff that is insignificant to the game. It seems you are trying to take attention off yourself. Unvote SNDVLS Vote Spleen1015

10-29-2006, 01:38 PM	#1449
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	hoops you are being quiet... that isn't like you.

10-29-2006, 01:39 PM	#1450
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	And why do you think there is no police chief Alant? Couldn't it be Anxiety or Chief? Somebody with not a lot of posts because of time constraints?

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