Fantasy Football - overrated

rkmsuf · 08-27-2007, 02:50 PM

I seem to get a handle on these better than sleepers.

Not a big Rothleshamburger or Portis guy.

MikeVic · 08-27-2007, 02:54 PM

I'm staying far away from Portis.

DaddyTorgo · 08-27-2007, 02:54 PM

IF portis could stay healthy he has the talent...no doubt on pure-talent he is top-5. problem is he's too fragile.

as for rothlesbooger...i think cowher did a great job with their old offensive scheme of protecting him. he never really had to make a ton of decisions.

i think this year, with a new OC we will truly see what he's got as he is given more freedom to make decisions. and i don't think it'll be pretty. i'm not a believer.

molson · 08-27-2007, 02:56 PM

I don't think either of those guys can be considered overrated - they aren't going in drafts until late.

I can't believe people are still taking Shaun Alexander in the top 5.

rkmsuf · 08-27-2007, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I'm staying far away from Portis.

He's 21 overall on the board I'm using but I would really consider passing on him if other guys around there were still available. I'd take Javon Walker, Travis Henry, Carson Palmer or maybe even Boldin or Roy Williams over him if it came back to me at 23 with Jackson already drafted.(12 team league, I'm #2).

Lathum · 08-27-2007, 02:57 PM

Shaun Alexander

MikeVic · 08-27-2007, 02:57 PM

I'm hoping Big Ben does well, but I'm scared too. I don't think he'll ever be more of a 20-TD-a-season guy anyway... so as a fantasy QB he doesn't have much upside. But he did throw for something like 240 yards in last night's first half... and 1 INT.

I'm not sure who I'd consider overrated... I don't have my draft book with me.

molson · 08-27-2007, 02:59 PM

Brian Westbrook in the first round is crazy too.

Atocep · 08-27-2007, 03:02 PM

Portis, even if healthy, will be sharing carries this year.

Some people still seem to be expecting a breakout year from Chris Chambers.

I'll be suprised if Brandon Jacobs holds onto his job the entire season.

Any rookie. 99% of the time they're drafted way over their actual value.

rkmsuf · 08-27-2007, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep

Any rookie. 99% of the time they're drafted way over their actual value.

unless they are a RB or Marquis Colston. then it's possible to have a great year.

Maple Leafs · 08-27-2007, 03:11 PM

Maurice Jones-Drew is actually being significantly over-rated in most drafts. He's a great player and fun to watch, but people are forgetting that he's second string on his own team. Fred Taylor didn't retire in the off-season, so where are all the extra carries coming from? In most leagues there seems to be at least one guy who's bought into the hype and draft him in the second round. Don't be that guy.

Lathum · 08-27-2007, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Maurice Jones-Drew is actually being significantly over-rated in most drafts. He's a great player and fun to watch, but people are forgetting that he's second string on his own team. Fred Taylor didn't retire in the off-season, so where are all the extra carries coming from? In most leagues there seems to be at least one guy who's bought into the hype and draft him in the second round. Don't be that guy.

Fred Taylor is also made of glass

rkmsuf · 08-27-2007, 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Maurice Jones-Drew is actually being significantly over-rated in most drafts. He's a great player and fun to watch, but people are forgetting that he's second string on his own team. Fred Taylor didn't retire in the off-season, so where are all the extra carries coming from? In most leagues there seems to be at least one guy who's bought into the hype and draft him in the second round. Don't be that guy.

It's a function of the schedule mostly. And the fact he had 13 touchdowns last year with another season of tread on fred taylor.

Looking at the fantasy playoff schedule for JAX I can see the appeal. He's 13 overall on my board but our league awards bonus points for long TDs and receiving TDs by running backs.

TroyF · 08-27-2007, 03:17 PM

Larry Johnson. Very good odds he slips badly.
Randy Moss. He'll be good, not great in NE.
I think Deshon Foster loses his starting job 1/4 of the way into the year
Every Raiders player if you're in a league jb is in.

TroyF · 08-27-2007, 03:18 PM

Dola:

I actually think Portis will have a pretty big year. I think he'll return to his 1,350+ yard form.

rkmsuf · 08-27-2007, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TroyF

Larry Johnson. Very good odds he slips badly.
Randy Moss. He'll be good, not great in NE.
I think Deshon Foster loses his starting job 1/4 of the way into the year
Every Raiders player if you're in a league jb is in.

winning the thread so far

rkmsuf · 08-27-2007, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TroyF

Dola:

I actually think Portis will have a pretty big year. I think he'll return to his 1,350+ yard form.

OK, losing the thread.

flere-imsaho · 08-27-2007, 03:25 PM

Tony Romo. I see a surprising number of people/FF outlets touting him as a top-5 QB pick.

Shaun Alexander. It's as if last year didn't happen.

Reggie Bush as a top-10 RB pick (not quite yet).

DaddyTorgo · 08-27-2007, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Reggie Bush as a top-10 RB pick (not quite yet).

argument could be made in "point-per-reception" leagues

jbergey22 · 08-27-2007, 03:29 PM

Travis Henry is over rated. I've seen him being taken in the first round when he has had a history of fumbles and 2 out of the past 3 years hasnt had a single TD. He may fit it well at Denver but being the risk he is should not go near the first round.

Jon Kitna- Being on so many "experts" sleeper list has suddenly made this guy into a top 5-6 QB. If too many people have you as a sleeper you are not longer a sleeper, correct?

Cedric Benson-If you have watched him play this guy he going to bust. Take handoff, run into the o line, fall forward for 1 yard. The Bears are going to miss T Jones is all I can say

Frank Gore-Great young back but I have a hard time putting him in the top 5 when he isnt even the goal line back. I would bump him down towards the end of the first round. Ive seen him taken as high as 3.

Lathum · 08-27-2007, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

argument could be made in "point-per-reception" leagues

or a keeper league

Solecismic · 08-27-2007, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Tony Romo. I see a surprising number of people/FF outlets touting him as a top-5 QB pick.

You'll enjoy tonight's addition to FF, then.

I had the 2-slot in my fantasy league, grabbed Portis in the second round, then Thomas Jones in the third. This could be a good year, or a very, very bad year.

TroyF · 08-27-2007, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

OK, losing the thread.

Win some, lose some.

Guy has played 5 seasons and has ran for over 1,300 yards in 4 of them. I think he recovers from last years injury and puts up another 1,300 yard season. We'll see.

Atocep · 08-27-2007, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Frank Gore-Great young back but I have a hard time putting him in the top 5 when he isnt even the goal line back. I would bump him down towards the end of the first round. Ive seen him taken as high as 3.

Gore is the goaline back this year according to SF coaches.

path12 · 08-27-2007, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson

Brian Westbrook in the first round is crazy too.

Not if your league gives a point per reception. He was top three for me last year.

Travis · 08-27-2007, 03:35 PM

I don't get the hate on Alexander. He has a decent year while playing pretty much the entire season injured (with differing severity depending on the portion of the season you're looking at) and finished the year quite strong. The line ahead of him is better/healthier this year than last (LG and C are two positions vastly improved this year just due to playing experience) and if nothing else, he should be fresh relatively speaking due to a reduced work load last year.

For a guy who had a tremendous history of staying healthy, I think people are being a bit quick to write him off due to one season/injury. I also haven't seen a lot of drafts where he's gone top 5, and if you're picking him up with the 8-10 pick, I have to believe you're going to be very, very happy, especially in a touchdown heavy league.

Also on Roethlisberger, not sure how the guy can be over rated if he's not getting any hype (at least that I've run across). I was leaning much more towards him being a potential breakout guy if he could rebound this year.

Definitely agree that Romo/Johnson/Bush are all valued too high (especially in non keeper leagues for the first and last). Very curious if Brady will put up numbers having two "name" receivers that he'll have to keep happy now or if that situation turns bad.

jbergey22 · 08-27-2007, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TroyF

Win some, lose some.

Guy has played 5 seasons and has ran for over 1,300 yards in 4 of them. I think he recovers from last years injury and puts up another 1,300 yard season. We'll see.

This latest issue with his knee and them re signing Betts has to be a bit of a concern. Very talented not in an ideal situation with some knagging injuries leads me to believe his best days are behind him.

path12 · 08-27-2007, 03:37 PM

I wouldn't touch a KC Chief. Crumbling line and an overworked back, plus injured QB's equals bad bad bad......I'll let someone else take Gonzalez or Larry Johnson.

MikeVic · 08-27-2007, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

or a keeper league

Heh.

jbergey22 · 08-27-2007, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep

Gore is the goaline back this year according to SF coaches.

I am not 100% convinced. Robinson got most of the goal line carries last and with Gores history of fumbling near the end zone and now his hand injury I dont think this is entirely true.

path12 · 08-27-2007, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis

I don't get the hate on Alexander. He has a decent year while playing pretty much the entire season injured (with differing severity depending on the portion of the season you're looking at) and finished the year quite strong. The line ahead of him is better/healthier this year than last (LG and C are two positions vastly improved this year just due to playing experience) and if nothing else, he should be fresh relatively speaking due to a reduced work load last year.

Agree with Alexander. I think he'll have a better year than people think -- but I also think he's past his MVP quality years. I'd rank him six or so among backs. But again, I figure point per reception and he gets downgraded for that.

Maple Leafs · 08-27-2007, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Fred Taylor is also made of glass

He's played 40 games in the last three years. That's not great but it's decent for a running back. He's far removed from his "always injured" days.

Besides, MJD isn't exactly a workhorse back. There's no reason to think he gets 25+ touches a game if Taylor goes down.

MikeVic · 08-27-2007, 03:42 PM

Oh yeah, I agree completely on Jones-Drew. He's being picking very high. Why isn't Marion Barber being picked in the same area? At least in a couple of drafts I've seen, Jones-Drew was being picked as a top 2nd RB. He got TDs last year, but so did Barber III. Jones-Drew can be good, but not as a top 2nd RB.

molson · 08-27-2007, 03:45 PM

Running backs just don't bounce back to superstar form at that age following injuries. And even if he stays healthy, his workload will be greatly curtailed.

I would guess a season around 300 carries, 1,150-1,200 yards, 10 TDs. Which is fine, but not top-5.

DaddyTorgo · 08-27-2007, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I am not 100% convinced. Robinson got most of the goal line carries last and with Gores history of fumbling near the end zone and now his hand injury I dont think this is entirely true.

did i miss the part where Gore was like...a beast last year?

jbergey22 · 08-27-2007, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

did i miss the part where Gore was like...a beast last year?

He was a beast that I am not doubting. He wasnt the goal line back last year. I am not seeing him as the goal line back again this year because #1 They still have robinson #2 It wont help his history of fumbling near the goal line with his hand injury. I want my top 5 picks to be goal line backs that is the only reason I would call him over rated.

I said bump him down towards the end of the first round not completely ignore him.

DaddyTorgo · 08-27-2007, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbergey22

He was a beast that I am not doubting. He wasnt the goal line back last year. I am not seeing him as the goal line back again this year because #1 They still have robinson #2 It wont help his history of fumbling near the goal line with his hand injury. I want my top 5 picks to be goal line backs that is the only reason I would call him over rated.

I said bump him down towards the end of the first round not completely ignore him.

fair nuff. fair nuff.

Hammer755 · 08-27-2007, 04:06 PM

Minnesota Adrian Peterson. He seems to be going very high in some of the mocks I've seen, but I find it hard to believe that he won't give up a lot of carries and goal-line chances to Chester Taylor.

BrianD · 08-27-2007, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis

I don't get the hate on Alexander. He has a decent year while playing pretty much the entire season injured (with differing severity depending on the portion of the season you're looking at) and finished the year quite strong. The line ahead of him is better/healthier this year than last (LG and C are two positions vastly improved this year just due to playing experience) and if nothing else, he should be fresh relatively speaking due to a reduced work load last year.

For a guy who had a tremendous history of staying healthy, I think people are being a bit quick to write him off due to one season/injury. I also haven't seen a lot of drafts where he's gone top 5, and if you're picking him up with the 8-10 pick, I have to believe you're going to be very, very happy, especially in a touchdown heavy league.

This was pretty much what I thought. Many people were expecting an Alexander breakdown last year because of all the carries he had the year before. With the rest he has gotten, and with the word that he is looking strong and healthy, I expect him to do well this year. He was available at #7 in my draft this year and I was happy to get him for that.

Sgran · 08-27-2007, 04:21 PM

I'm disappointed. From the title of the thread I thought we were going to get a debate on how lame fantasy football actually is.

jbergey22 · 08-27-2007, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sgran

I'm disappointed. From the title of the thread I thought we were going to get a debate on how lame fantasy football actually is.

I dont think it would become much of a debate considering fantasy football has been steadily increasing in popularity since the late 80's and its a major reason people even pay much attention to some of the games.

Glengoyne · 08-27-2007, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Shaun Alexander

Third in my draft.

I picked sixth and nabbed Frank Gore.

Lathum · 08-27-2007, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

Third in my draft.

I picked sixth and nabbed Frank Gore.

wow

Richard Weed · 08-27-2007, 08:01 PM

LaDanian Tomlinson will get injured this year. Mark it.

Glengoyne · 08-28-2007, 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

Third in my draft.

I picked sixth and nabbed Frank Gore.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

wow

I was really torn on Gore. He is a guy that I kind of place in the "overrated" category. He was an interesting enough runner two years ago, that I was high on him last year. His performance last year, has vaulted him to the top tier of running backs in most magazine's minds. In my twenty years of fantasy football I've come to the point that I'm slow to dole out those early first round draft picks to players without a proven track record. Consistency is a requirement for those picks. I have no trouble pulling the trigger on a pick for LT, but Frank Gore and, to a lesser degree, even Larry Johnson give me pause. At those times, I have to admit to considering Peyton Manning.

Alan T · 08-28-2007, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

I was really torn on Gore. He is a guy that I kind of place in the "overrated" category. He was an interesting enough runner two years ago, that I was high on him last year. His performance last year, has vaulted him to the top tier of running backs in most magazine's minds. In my twenty years of fantasy football I've come to the point that I'm slow to dole out those early first round draft picks to players without a proven track record. Consistency is a requirement for those picks. I have no trouble pulling the trigger on a pick for LT, but Frank Gore and, to a lesser degree, even Larry Johnson give me pause. At those times, I have to admit to considering Peyton Manning.

Interesting comment at the end, as my two leagues I am in, I picked 7th and 8th. In the league where I picked 7th, I had my choice of Gore or Peyton and chose to go with Gore. Most of the players whom I consider game breaking RBs were gone, and I wanted one more than a game breaking QB... in my league where I drafted 8th, it was the same scenerio, but the team ahead of me picked Gore (at 7th again), so I ended up with peyton this time.

Maple Leafs · 08-28-2007, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Weed

LaDanian Tomlinson will get injured this year. Mark it.

Wait, you're saying a workhorse running back might get hurt? That only happens to about half of them every year, way to go out on a limb.

Glengoyne · 08-28-2007, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Interesting comment at the end, as my two leagues I am in, I picked 7th and 8th. In the league where I picked 7th, I had my choice of Gore or Peyton and chose to go with Gore. Most of the players whom I consider game breaking RBs were gone, and I wanted one more than a game breaking QB... in my league where I drafted 8th, it was the same scenerio, but the team ahead of me picked Gore (at 7th again), so I ended up with peyton this time.

Peyton went fourth in this particular draft, so it wasn't an option. Had he been there I would have taken Manning without too much hesitation. At that point, LT, LJ, Manning, Shaun Alexander, and Stephen Jackson had been taken. I chose between Gore and Palmer. Palmer was my second round pick.

rkmsuf · 08-28-2007, 02:33 PM

For no logical reason really I don't care for Gore.

Not sure why. Just a gut feeling that is probably incorrect.

MikeVic · 08-28-2007, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

For no logical reason really I don't care for Gore.

Not sure why. Just a gut feeling that is probably incorrect.

Would you care if his name was Frank Costanza?

08-27-2007, 03:11 PM	#11
Maple Leafs Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2002	Maurice Jones-Drew is actually being significantly over-rated in most drafts. He's a great player and fun to watch, but people are forgetting that he's second string on his own team. Fred Taylor didn't retire in the off-season, so where are all the extra carries coming from? In most leagues there seems to be at least one guy who's bought into the hype and draft him in the second round. Don't be that guy. __________________ Down Goes Brown: Toronto Maple Leafs Humor and Analysis

08-27-2007, 03:35 PM	#26
Travis Pro Rookie Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Canada eh	I don't get the hate on Alexander. He has a decent year while playing pretty much the entire season injured (with differing severity depending on the portion of the season you're looking at) and finished the year quite strong. The line ahead of him is better/healthier this year than last (LG and C are two positions vastly improved this year just due to playing experience) and if nothing else, he should be fresh relatively speaking due to a reduced work load last year. For a guy who had a tremendous history of staying healthy, I think people are being a bit quick to write him off due to one season/injury. I also haven't seen a lot of drafts where he's gone top 5, and if you're picking him up with the 8-10 pick, I have to believe you're going to be very, very happy, especially in a touchdown heavy league. Also on Roethlisberger, not sure how the guy can be over rated if he's not getting any hype (at least that I've run across). I was leaning much more towards him being a potential breakout guy if he could rebound this year. Definitely agree that Romo/Johnson/Bush are all valued too high (especially in non keeper leagues for the first and last). Very curious if Brady will put up numbers having two "name" receivers that he'll have to keep happy now or if that situation turns bad. __________________ "I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." - Rogers Hornsby

08-27-2007, 03:37 PM	#28
path12 Coordinator Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle, WA	I wouldn't touch a KC Chief. Crumbling line and an overworked back, plus injured QB's equals bad bad bad......I'll let someone else take Gonzalez or Larry Johnson. __________________ We have always been at war with Eastasia.

08-27-2007, 04:06 PM	#38
Hammer755 High School Varsity Join Date: Jun 2001 Location: Houston, TX	Minnesota Adrian Peterson. He seems to be going very high in some of the mocks I've seen, but I find it hard to believe that he won't give up a lot of carries and goal-line chances to Chester Taylor. __________________ I failed Signature 101 class. Last edited by Hammer755 : 08-27-2007 at 04:07 PM.

08-27-2007, 08:01 PM	#44
Richard Weed H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: May 2007	LaDanian Tomlinson will get injured this year. Mark it. __________________ I'm tired of taking names and kicking ass...I'm just gonna kick some ass.

08-27-2007, 02:54 PM	#2
MikeVic Head Coach Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Hometown of Canada	I'm staying far away from Portis.

08-27-2007, 02:54 PM	#3
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	IF portis could stay healthy he has the talent...no doubt on pure-talent he is top-5. problem is he's too fragile. as for rothlesbooger...i think cowher did a great job with their old offensive scheme of protecting him. he never really had to make a ton of decisions. i think this year, with a new OC we will truly see what he's got as he is given more freedom to make decisions. and i don't think it'll be pretty. i'm not a believer.

08-27-2007, 02:56 PM	#4
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	I don't think either of those guys can be considered overrated - they aren't going in drafts until late. I can't believe people are still taking Shaun Alexander in the top 5.

08-27-2007, 02:57 PM	#6
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Shaun Alexander

08-27-2007, 02:59 PM	#8
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	Brian Westbrook in the first round is crazy too.

08-27-2007, 03:02 PM	#9
Atocep Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Puyallup, WA	Portis, even if healthy, will be sharing carries this year. Some people still seem to be expecting a breakout year from Chris Chambers. I'll be suprised if Brandon Jacobs holds onto his job the entire season. Any rookie. 99% of the time they're drafted way over their actual value.

08-27-2007, 03:17 PM	#14
TroyF Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000	Larry Johnson. Very good odds he slips badly. Randy Moss. He'll be good, not great in NE. I think Deshon Foster loses his starting job 1/4 of the way into the year Every Raiders player if you're in a league jb is in.

08-27-2007, 03:18 PM	#15
TroyF Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000	Dola: I actually think Portis will have a pretty big year. I think he'll return to his 1,350+ yard form.

08-27-2007, 03:25 PM	#18
flere-imsaho Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Chicagoland	Tony Romo. I see a surprising number of people/FF outlets touting him as a top-5 QB pick. Shaun Alexander. It's as if last year didn't happen. Reggie Bush as a top-10 RB pick (not quite yet).

08-27-2007, 03:29 PM	#20
jbergey22 Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Minnesota	Travis Henry is over rated. I've seen him being taken in the first round when he has had a history of fumbles and 2 out of the past 3 years hasnt had a single TD. He may fit it well at Denver but being the risk he is should not go near the first round. Jon Kitna- Being on so many "experts" sleeper list has suddenly made this guy into a top 5-6 QB. If too many people have you as a sleeper you are not longer a sleeper, correct? Cedric Benson-If you have watched him play this guy he going to bust. Take handoff, run into the o line, fall forward for 1 yard. The Bears are going to miss T Jones is all I can say Frank Gore-Great young back but I have a hard time putting him in the top 5 when he isnt even the goal line back. I would bump him down towards the end of the first round. Ive seen him taken as high as 3.

08-27-2007, 03:42 PM	#33
MikeVic Head Coach Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Hometown of Canada	Oh yeah, I agree completely on Jones-Drew. He's being picking very high. Why isn't Marion Barber being picked in the same area? At least in a couple of drafts I've seen, Jones-Drew was being picked as a top 2nd RB. He got TDs last year, but so did Barber III. Jones-Drew can be good, but not as a top 2nd RB.

08-27-2007, 03:45 PM	#34
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	Running backs just don't bounce back to superstar form at that age following injuries. And even if he stays healthy, his workload will be greatly curtailed. I would guess a season around 300 carries, 1,150-1,200 yards, 10 TDs. Which is fine, but not top-5.

08-27-2007, 04:21 PM	#40
Sgran High School Varsity Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Budapest	I'm disappointed. From the title of the thread I thought we were going to get a debate on how lame fantasy football actually is.

08-28-2007, 02:33 PM	#49
rkmsuf Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2001	For no logical reason really I don't care for Gore. Not sure why. Just a gut feeling that is probably incorrect. __________________ "Don't you have homes?" -- Judge Smales

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