FOWL Playoff Picture

Passacaglia · 12-02-2008, 06:57 PM

I did the NFC -- if someone wants to do the AFC, go ahead!

Passacaglia · 12-02-2008, 06:57 PM

Arizona -- Currently NFC West leaders, with a two-game lead. The only way they don't win the division is if they lose both their remaining games (NJY and STL), and if SF wins both theirs. Even then, at 10-6 and tiebreakers over Green Bay, Washington, and Seattle (but not Chicago) they'll be looking decent for a wild-card spot.

Atlanta -- NFC South Champions. They're tied with Arizona at 10-4, and the next tiebreaker is conference games (I believe), and both teams are 8-3. The teams could stay tied but have this tiebreaker change if one teams beats their NFC opponent and loses to their AFC opponent, and the other team does the opposite. If needed, the next tiebreaker is common opponents, which Arizona wins, 4-0 over 4-1. Remaining games are at DEN, and TBY.

Chicago -- Currently 2nd place in the NFC North, fighting for a wildcard spot. If they win their remaining games, at IND, and MIN, then they'll have the #5 spot, unless Washington wins both their games, in which case they'll have the #6 spot. If they lose a game, they'll have to worry about either Green Bay, San Francisco, or Seattle catching up with them.

Detroit -- NFC North Champions. The only way they don't end up with the #1 seed is if they lose both remaining games (TEN and at GBY), and the Giants win both theirs, in which case they get the #2 seed.

Green Bay -- Currently 3rd place in the NFC North, on the outside looking in. They need either Chicago or Washington to slip up. If they tie with Chicago, they'll probably win the tie-breaker, because they'll have either beat Detroit, giving them a better division record, or they'll beat Jacksonville, giving them a better record against common opponents. If they beat Jacksonville and lose to Detroit, and Chicago loses both games, then Chicago wins the tiebreaker based on conference record (6-6 vs. 5-7), but if that happens, there's a good chance neither team makes the playoffs at 9-7 anyway. To catch Washington, they need to win both games and Washington needs to lose both. And, unless they manage to pass both Chicago AND Washington, they need to make sure San Francisco or Seattle doesn't win both games.

New York -- NFC East Champions. If they win their games, CIN and at PHI, then they get a first-round bye. If they let Arizona catch up, they have the tiebreaker, but if they let Atlanta catch up, it gets trickier -- they'll have the tiebreaker as long as they win at Philadelphia, but if they lose that one, then it goes to strength of victory, where they currently have a 26 point advantage over Atlanta.

San Francisco -- Currently 2nd place in the NFC South. They've got a big advantage having already beat Seattle on the road, and the Week 17 game in San Fran between the two will be huge. They're 4-1 in the division, while Seattle is 1-4, so they can afford to lose to Seattle and still takes 2nd place as long as they beat Buffalo the week before. Unfortunately, that's not enough to get them into the playoffs -- to do that, they need to win the division (see Arizona), or hope Chicago or Washington slip up, which means they have to win both games, and hope that one of Chicago or Washington loses both their games.

Seattle -- Same deal as Green Bay and San Fran -- they need to catch Chicago or Washington. A tie with either Chicago or Washington will favor them, putting them in a slightly better position than Green Bay and San Fran in one way -- the downside is that a tie with San Fran screws them, since San Fran has already beat them, and Seattle's division record is an unfortunate 1-4. They should be good in a tie with Green Bay, though, based on conference record (crazy how they can be 1-4 in their division, but 7-4 in their conference).

Washington -- Is there anything more to say about them that hasn't been said earlier? You've got Chicago, Green Bay, San Francisco (or maybe Arizona if the 49ers win the west), Seattle, and Washington all fighting for two spots. The jockeying for position is done, and now it's time for the home stretch. Good luck.

gstelmack · 12-02-2008, 09:13 PM

AFC:

Baltimore will walk away with the whole thing.

Any questions?

Okay, okay:

- Baltimore has clinched the AFC North. I think they have the #1 seed even if they miraculously blow the next two based on conference record (KC has already lost a pair of conference games with only one more left for each). Win even one and they are playing at home through the playoffs without worrying about tiebreakers.

- Kansas City has clinched the AFC West and a bye. I think based on conference record they are locked into the #2 seed, but lose one and any chance at #1 is out the window.

- Jacksonville has split with Houston in the AFC South, but currently has a one-game lead in overall, conference, and division record. If Houston wins out and Jacksonville wins this week and drops its final division game, they'll have identical overall, conference, and division records and who knows what tiebreaker comes into play. Win out and they win the division and a #3 seed (even if New England wins out, Jacksonville owns a head-to-head victory for the tiebreaker). Drop both and at least they are lucky they beat both Pittsburgh and Cincy which should help with wildcard tiebreakers if one of them manages to win out.

- New England is currently in the driver's seat for the AFC East and the #4 seed, owning a 1-game lead and a pair of head-to-head victories over Buffalo. Win one of the next two, or have Buffalo drop one of their next two, and they are in as the #4 seed. Drop both and tiebreakers with Pittsburgh and Cincy get interesting for a wildcard, as New England has not played either one.

- Houston and Buffalo both still have a crack at their division title. Buffalo needs New England to drop 2 while they win 2, while Houston's scenario is spelled out with Jacksonville.

- For the wildcard, Denver has beat both Houston and Buffalo, so holds tiebreakers if all 3 win out for the top wildcard seed. Buffalo lost to both, so could be the odd man out in a 10-6 3-way.

- Pittsburgh and Cincy both need to win out and get some help to sneak a wildcard. Since they play week 17, only one of them has a chance.

- Indy, New Jersey, and Oakland need a miracle and a win out. One or more could be eliminated on tiebreakers, but I don't feel like delving in too deep.

The playoff picture starts getting real interesting if JAX and NED lose two games to finish the season. It is theoretically possible for us to finish with 6 9-7 teams fighting over 2 division titles and both wildcards.

SegRat · 12-02-2008, 09:56 PM

Thanks guys

Ben E Lou · 12-03-2008, 07:27 AM

Very nice.

FYI, I have no IHOF sim today, so this should be simmed very shortly after 12:30.

Coffee Warlord · 12-03-2008, 09:20 AM

Yep, very well done folks.

gstelmack · 12-03-2008, 01:55 PM

AFC Update:

- Baltimore has clinched the AFC North and the #1 seed.

- Kansas City has clinched AFC West and the #2 seed.

- New England has clinched the AFC East, and can grab the #3 seed if JAX loses and they beat Miami. If JAX wins, they are the #4 seed. That's the difference between playing Baltimore or Kansas City in the divisional round. Tomato, Tomahto.

- Jacksonville and Houston are still tussling for the AFC South. If Jacksonville wins, they win the division and take the #3 seed. If they lose and Houston wins, we go deep into tiebreakers for the division winner at 10-6.

- Jacksonville has clinched at least a wildcard berth, however.

- Houston has a 1-game lead in the wildcard race, and a win guarantees them the top wildcard seed.

- Denver, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo can all finish 9-7 with a win and fight tiebreakers for the final wildcard spot, or fight with Houston if Houston loses over 2 wildcard spots.

- Cincy and Oakland still appear to have a mathematical chance if they win to go 8-8 and everybody else loses (and Cincy can help this cause by beating Pitt), which would mean 5 8-8 teams fighting tiebreakers for the final wilcard spot.

QuikSand · 12-03-2008, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstelmack

- Baltimore has clinched the AFC North and the #1 seed.

w00t!

johnnyshaka · 12-03-2008, 02:41 PM

Nice to see the Jags clinch a playoff berth but it would be even better to have a home game, too. Win and that happens...plain and simple.

Passacaglia · 12-03-2008, 04:00 PM

And here we go!

Arizona -- NFC West Champions. Get the #3 seed with a win over the Rams or an Atlanta loss to Tampa Bay, otherwise they get the #4 seed.

Atlanta -- NFC South Champions. Get the #2 seed with a win over Tampa Bay, an Arizona loss to the Rams, a Giants loss to the Eagles, and making up a 34-point deficit in strength of victory over the Giants. Get the #3 seed with a win over Tampa Bay and an Arizona loss to the Rams.

Chicago -- Get the #5 seed with a win over Minnesota. Get the #6 seed with a loss to Minnesota, a Washington win over Dallas, and a San Francisco win over Seattle. They miss the playoffs with a loss to Minnesota, a Washington win over Dallas, and a Seattle win over San Francisco.

Detroit -- NFC North Champions. #1 seed.

Green Bay -- Even though FOF shows the circle by their name as gray, they're actually eliminated.

New York -- NFC East Champions. Get the #2 seed unless Atlanta takes it (see Atlanta).

San Francisco -- Get the #6 seed with a win over Seattle and a Washington loss to Dallas.

Seattle -- Get the #5 seed with a win over San Francisco and a Chicago loss to Minnesota. Get the #6 seed with a win over San Francisco.

Washington -- Get the #5 seed with a win over Dallas, a Chicago loss to Minnesota, and a San Francisco win over Seattle. Get the #6 seed with a win over Dallas, a Chicago win over Minnesota, and a San Francisco win over Seattle. They miss the playoffs with a Seattle win over San Francisco, no matter what they do against Dallas.

Tormaz · 12-04-2008, 06:19 AM

Quote:

- New England has clinched the AFC East, and can grab the #3 seed if JAX loses and they beat Miami. If JAX wins, they are the #4 seed. That's the difference between playing Baltimore or Kansas City in the divisional round. Tomato, Tomahto.

Hopefully we can end our season on a high note and send NE to the #4 seed.

Passacaglia · 12-04-2008, 03:23 PM

So after all that, the NFC wraps up pretty much like expected -- Washington and Chicago win, and the NFC West gets screwed. Tarcone is going to have to send a gift basket to RedKingGold, though.

SegRat · 12-05-2008, 12:32 AM

All we had to do was beat the 49ers!! Oh well, now I just hope there are a few free agents to go after as I believe we will have the second most cap room.

12-03-2008, 01:55 PM	#7
gstelmack Pro Starter Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Cary, NC	AFC Update: - Baltimore has clinched the AFC North and the #1 seed. - Kansas City has clinched AFC West and the #2 seed. - New England has clinched the AFC East, and can grab the #3 seed if JAX loses and they beat Miami. If JAX wins, they are the #4 seed. That's the difference between playing Baltimore or Kansas City in the divisional round. Tomato, Tomahto. - Jacksonville and Houston are still tussling for the AFC South. If Jacksonville wins, they win the division and take the #3 seed. If they lose and Houston wins, we go deep into tiebreakers for the division winner at 10-6. - Jacksonville has clinched at least a wildcard berth, however. - Houston has a 1-game lead in the wildcard race, and a win guarantees them the top wildcard seed. - Denver, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo can all finish 9-7 with a win and fight tiebreakers for the final wildcard spot, or fight with Houston if Houston loses over 2 wildcard spots. - Cincy and Oakland still appear to have a mathematical chance if they win to go 8-8 and everybody else loses (and Cincy can help this cause by beating Pitt), which would mean 5 8-8 teams fighting tiebreakers for the final wilcard spot. __________________ -- Greg -- Author of various FOF utilities

12-03-2008, 04:00 PM	#10
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	And here we go! Arizona -- NFC West Champions. Get the #3 seed with a win over the Rams or an Atlanta loss to Tampa Bay, otherwise they get the #4 seed. Atlanta -- NFC South Champions. Get the #2 seed with a win over Tampa Bay, an Arizona loss to the Rams, a Giants loss to the Eagles, and making up a 34-point deficit in strength of victory over the Giants. Get the #3 seed with a win over Tampa Bay and an Arizona loss to the Rams. Chicago -- Get the #5 seed with a win over Minnesota. Get the #6 seed with a loss to Minnesota, a Washington win over Dallas, and a San Francisco win over Seattle. They miss the playoffs with a loss to Minnesota, a Washington win over Dallas, and a Seattle win over San Francisco. Detroit -- NFC North Champions. #1 seed. Green Bay -- Even though FOF shows the circle by their name as gray, they're actually eliminated. New York -- NFC East Champions. Get the #2 seed unless Atlanta takes it (see Atlanta). San Francisco -- Get the #6 seed with a win over Seattle and a Washington loss to Dallas. Seattle -- Get the #5 seed with a win over San Francisco and a Chicago loss to Minnesota. Get the #6 seed with a win over San Francisco. Washington -- Get the #5 seed with a win over Dallas, a Chicago loss to Minnesota, and a San Francisco win over Seattle. Get the #6 seed with a win over Dallas, a Chicago win over Minnesota, and a San Francisco win over Seattle. They miss the playoffs with a Seattle win over San Francisco, no matter what they do against Dallas. Last edited by Passacaglia : 12-03-2008 at 04:00 PM.

12-02-2008, 06:57 PM	#2
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Arizona -- Currently NFC West leaders, with a two-game lead. The only way they don't win the division is if they lose both their remaining games (NJY and STL), and if SF wins both theirs. Even then, at 10-6 and tiebreakers over Green Bay, Washington, and Seattle (but not Chicago) they'll be looking decent for a wild-card spot. Atlanta -- NFC South Champions. They're tied with Arizona at 10-4, and the next tiebreaker is conference games (I believe), and both teams are 8-3. The teams could stay tied but have this tiebreaker change if one teams beats their NFC opponent and loses to their AFC opponent, and the other team does the opposite. If needed, the next tiebreaker is common opponents, which Arizona wins, 4-0 over 4-1. Remaining games are at DEN, and TBY. Chicago -- Currently 2nd place in the NFC North, fighting for a wildcard spot. If they win their remaining games, at IND, and MIN, then they'll have the #5 spot, unless Washington wins both their games, in which case they'll have the #6 spot. If they lose a game, they'll have to worry about either Green Bay, San Francisco, or Seattle catching up with them. Detroit -- NFC North Champions. The only way they don't end up with the #1 seed is if they lose both remaining games (TEN and at GBY), and the Giants win both theirs, in which case they get the #2 seed. Green Bay -- Currently 3rd place in the NFC North, on the outside looking in. They need either Chicago or Washington to slip up. If they tie with Chicago, they'll probably win the tie-breaker, because they'll have either beat Detroit, giving them a better division record, or they'll beat Jacksonville, giving them a better record against common opponents. If they beat Jacksonville and lose to Detroit, and Chicago loses both games, then Chicago wins the tiebreaker based on conference record (6-6 vs. 5-7), but if that happens, there's a good chance neither team makes the playoffs at 9-7 anyway. To catch Washington, they need to win both games and Washington needs to lose both. And, unless they manage to pass both Chicago AND Washington, they need to make sure San Francisco or Seattle doesn't win both games. New York -- NFC East Champions. If they win their games, CIN and at PHI, then they get a first-round bye. If they let Arizona catch up, they have the tiebreaker, but if they let Atlanta catch up, it gets trickier -- they'll have the tiebreaker as long as they win at Philadelphia, but if they lose that one, then it goes to strength of victory, where they currently have a 26 point advantage over Atlanta. San Francisco -- Currently 2nd place in the NFC South. They've got a big advantage having already beat Seattle on the road, and the Week 17 game in San Fran between the two will be huge. They're 4-1 in the division, while Seattle is 1-4, so they can afford to lose to Seattle and still takes 2nd place as long as they beat Buffalo the week before. Unfortunately, that's not enough to get them into the playoffs -- to do that, they need to win the division (see Arizona), or hope Chicago or Washington slip up, which means they have to win both games, and hope that one of Chicago or Washington loses both their games. Seattle -- Same deal as Green Bay and San Fran -- they need to catch Chicago or Washington. A tie with either Chicago or Washington will favor them, putting them in a slightly better position than Green Bay and San Fran in one way -- the downside is that a tie with San Fran screws them, since San Fran has already beat them, and Seattle's division record is an unfortunate 1-4. They should be good in a tie with Green Bay, though, based on conference record (crazy how they can be 1-4 in their division, but 7-4 in their conference). Washington -- Is there anything more to say about them that hasn't been said earlier? You've got Chicago, Green Bay, San Francisco (or maybe Arizona if the 49ers win the west), Seattle, and Washington all fighting for two spots. The jockeying for position is done, and now it's time for the home stretch. Good luck. Last edited by Passacaglia : 12-02-2008 at 06:58 PM.

12-02-2008, 09:13 PM	#3
gstelmack Pro Starter Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Cary, NC	AFC: Baltimore will walk away with the whole thing. Any questions? Okay, okay: - Baltimore has clinched the AFC North. I think they have the #1 seed even if they miraculously blow the next two based on conference record (KC has already lost a pair of conference games with only one more left for each). Win even one and they are playing at home through the playoffs without worrying about tiebreakers. - Kansas City has clinched the AFC West and a bye. I think based on conference record they are locked into the #2 seed, but lose one and any chance at #1 is out the window. - Jacksonville has split with Houston in the AFC South, but currently has a one-game lead in overall, conference, and division record. If Houston wins out and Jacksonville wins this week and drops its final division game, they'll have identical overall, conference, and division records and who knows what tiebreaker comes into play. Win out and they win the division and a #3 seed (even if New England wins out, Jacksonville owns a head-to-head victory for the tiebreaker). Drop both and at least they are lucky they beat both Pittsburgh and Cincy which should help with wildcard tiebreakers if one of them manages to win out. - New England is currently in the driver's seat for the AFC East and the #4 seed, owning a 1-game lead and a pair of head-to-head victories over Buffalo. Win one of the next two, or have Buffalo drop one of their next two, and they are in as the #4 seed. Drop both and tiebreakers with Pittsburgh and Cincy get interesting for a wildcard, as New England has not played either one. - Houston and Buffalo both still have a crack at their division title. Buffalo needs New England to drop 2 while they win 2, while Houston's scenario is spelled out with Jacksonville. - For the wildcard, Denver has beat both Houston and Buffalo, so holds tiebreakers if all 3 win out for the top wildcard seed. Buffalo lost to both, so could be the odd man out in a 10-6 3-way. - Pittsburgh and Cincy both need to win out and get some help to sneak a wildcard. Since they play week 17, only one of them has a chance. - Indy, New Jersey, and Oakland need a miracle and a win out. One or more could be eliminated on tiebreakers, but I don't feel like delving in too deep. The playoff picture starts getting real interesting if JAX and NED lose two games to finish the season. It is theoretically possible for us to finish with 6 9-7 teams fighting over 2 division titles and both wildcards. __________________ -- Greg -- Author of various FOF utilities

12-02-2008, 09:56 PM	#4
SegRat High School Varsity Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Oshkosh, WI	Thanks guys

12-03-2008, 07:27 AM	#5
Ben E Lou Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Greensboro, NC	Very nice. FYI, I have no IHOF sim today, so this should be simmed very shortly after 12:30. __________________ The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'!

12-03-2008, 09:20 AM	#6
Coffee Warlord Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Colorado Springs	Yep, very well done folks.

12-03-2008, 02:41 PM	#9
johnnyshaka College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Edmonton, AB	Nice to see the Jags clinch a playoff berth but it would be even better to have a home game, too. Win and that happens...plain and simple.

12-04-2008, 03:23 PM	#12
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	So after all that, the NFC wraps up pretty much like expected -- Washington and Chicago win, and the NFC West gets screwed. Tarcone is going to have to send a gift basket to RedKingGold, though.

12-05-2008, 12:32 AM	#13
SegRat High School Varsity Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Oshkosh, WI	All we had to do was beat the 49ers!! Oh well, now I just hope there are a few free agents to go after as I believe we will have the second most cap room.

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