Route Running Question

[sidthelid]

If your top Receiver has low Route running say around 35 he will not catch that many balls i believe. But if you surround him starters with lower Route Running will this put up his chance of being targeted more?

Views from the experts would be welcome.

thank you

[QuikSand]

Best guess:

Will this get him more targets? Yes.
Will this make your team better? Uncertain.

[RedKingGold]

Yes.

From my experience, it's all relative.

Player with 25 RR surrounded by guys with a rating of 10 or less in RR will result in 25 guy getting more targets.

Now, it's also a matter of degree and looking at it a whole entire season. In other words, I wouldn't expect there to be an overwhelming disparity in targets between 25 RR and other < 5 RR gimps over and entire season and you can't look at this game-by-game because of dice rolls/luck/goblins.

So, please don't come in here and say "OFMG MY RECIVER WITH 5 IN RR GOT 8 TARGETS AT 25 GOT 4!!!11!!" It's going to happen.

[Dandelion]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

you can't look at this game-by-game because of dice rolls/luck/goblins.

You forgot: "the <5 Skiller caught the passes because it was God's will he did.."
That's about as true as the goblins in the machine/loads of lucky dice rolls thingy..

Originally Posted by sidthelid

If your top Receiver has low Route running say around 35 he will not catch that many balls i believe. But if you surround him starters with lower Route Running will this put up his chance of being targeted more?

As fas as I can see it up to now, there are a lot more aspects to be looked at concerning passing game than a) pure RR b) lucky dice rolls or c) God's will..

Depending on Your playbook, the formations, Down, yards to go, the position of Your WR in the used formations, the diverse skills of the QB, the way the opponent runs his defense - see: double coverage - and all those other little details in the game Your 35 RR WR might end up with even less catches when surrounded with no talent guys. He still will be ending up in double coverage, so the QB will look for other targets.. He still might be the guy on the long route, when a short route is called and so on..

But I'm just a noob - so better ignore what I wrote here and stick to goblins, lucky dice and God's will..

[sidthelid]

I am also thinking route running is the ability of the receiver to get open, away from the coverage, so a number of WR's with lower RR could aslo mean less completions due to being covered, maybe more picks and throw in to tight coverage.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by sidthelid

I am also thinking route running is the ability of the receiver to get open, away from the coverage, so a number of WR's with lower RR could aslo mean less completions due to being covered, maybe more picks and throw in to tight coverage.

Using football knowledge sometimes hurts more than helps in FOF.

Just stick with the FOF Help File which (IIRC) simply states that RR = the ability of your receiver to get targets.

That's it, I doubt there's little mystery there in terms of what RR does and does not do.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by sidthelid

If your top Receiver has low Route running say around 35 he will not catch that many balls i believe. But if you surround him starters with lower Route Running will this put up his chance of being targeted more?

Originally Posted by Dandelion

As fas as I can see it up to now, there are a lot more aspects to be looked at concerning passing game than a) pure RR b) lucky dice rolls or c) God's will..

Depending on Your playbook, the formations, Down, yards to go, the position of Your WR in the used formations, the diverse skills of the QB, the way the opponent runs his defense - see: double coverage - and all those other little details in the game Your 35 RR WR might end up with even less catches when surrounded with no talent guys. He still will be ending up in double coverage, so the QB will look for other targets.. He still might be the guy on the long route, when a short route is called and so on..

But I'm just a noob - so better ignore what I wrote here and stick to goblins, lucky dice and God's will..

Perhaps, but "sidthelid" was asking about ROUTE RUNNING as far as how does ROUTE RUNNING work when one player has a higher than lower.

If the question was about "how to better your passing attack", then your comment might hold more muster.

[Dandelion]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Perhaps, but "sidthelid" was asking about ROUTE RUNNING as far as how does ROUTE RUNNING work when one player has a higher than lower.

If the question was about "how to better your passing attack", then your comment might hold more muster.

Wow.. You proved Your ability to change the font size.. that's pretty impressive..

Too bad that Sid's question can not be answered with a simple "yes" or "no" because although RR is important to see which WR gets targeted, but it is not the only thing used for the descision. And several of these other things nullify the value of RR on any play.

But, as I wrote - I am just a noob so just ignore what I write here.. No need to use large fonts again.. just keep your temper..

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Dandelion

Too bad that Sid's question can not be answered with a simple "yes" or "no" because although RR is important to see which WR gets targeted, but it is not the only thing used for the descision. And several of these other things nullify the value of RR on any play.

Do you have any data to back up this statement?

[Subby]

Originally Posted by sidthelid

If your top Receiver has low Route running say around 35 he will not catch that many balls i believe. But if you surround him starters with lower Route Running will this put up his chance of being targeted more?

Yes.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by Dandelion

...because although RR is important to see which WR gets targeted, but it is not the only thing used for the descision

Unfortuantely, I believe you are 100% wrong here.

Everything I've seen from Solecismic's documentation to my experiences in playing some version of FOF for over ten years have led me to believe that a player's route running in relation to other potential receivers on the field multiplied by a dice roll is the only factor taken into account when deciding who will get a target on a given play.

Could there be other factors involved? It's hard to disprove a negative. But, I believe it equally difficult for you to change my mind on this issue.

Feel free to try.

[RedKingGold]

By the way, I openly invite both of you to join an FOF MP league.

Trust me, you'll learn more about the game works that way than you will torturing SP.

The FOFL has two openings as we speak. Website: theFOFL.com : Home

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

By the way, I openly invite both of you to join an FOF MP league.

Trust me, you'll learn more about the game works that way than you will torturing SP.

The FOFL has two openings as we speak. Website: theFOFL.com : Home

I endorse both RKG's statement and the invitations.

[Dandelion]

Originally Posted by wade moore

Do you have any data to back up this statement?

somewhere here in the forum is a list with all plays which can be run from each of the different formations. Depending on the formation and the chosen play, there are usually only one or two targets for passes on any given play. Depending on the range call - if it's going to be a short or medium/long pass - the possible receivers have different chances to be primary or secondry target or not even a target at all..

Example: Basic Single Back formation.
20 Pass Plays in short range for this formation.
primary target: 4xRB 4xTE1, 4xFL1, 4xFL2, 4xSE1
second target: 4xRB, 4xTE1, 1xFL1

20 Pass Plays in medium/long range:
primary target: 1xRB 3xTE1, 7xFL1, 3xFL2, 6xSE1
second target: 3xRB, 3xTE1, 2xFL1, 4xFL2, 4xSE1

So by choice of formation and the play situation - down and needed yardage - we get a basic chance for any of those listed players to be targetted.
Now comes the tricky part, for which only the programmer knows the answer.. Is
a) the play chosen purely on formation and situation? If so, RR will only come into play if there are two possible targets on a play to choose the more likely one..
Or is
b) the receiver chosen ahead of the play due to his RR skill, and then the play in which he is the most likely receiver?

What happens, if the "most likely receiver" is held in double coverage and the QB's "read defense" skill (Reading the Defense - ability to adjust to effective defensive pass coverages - from csv.txt) makes him look for a target away from double coverage? And why does a QB need a skill like Passing Timing (ability to connect with receivers who deviate from the planned play - csv.txt again) if receivers wouldn't deviate from their routes?

Data? No, not yet. Getting that data would mean to manually sift through log files and write down the play situation, formation, chosen play, targetted receiver, defensive formation, double coverage or not etc. for all pass plays of all games for several seasons. As long as there's no way to extract that kind of data by a program, I just keep making my comments by the observations I made over the course of those games I watched during the 30 seasons I played.
I guess the "RR > all" fraction has a lot more data, right?

But I really think that all those nice little skill values all the players have do make a difference when it comes to determine how a play is "played", even though it's all nothing but a couple of dice rolls in a row.. And I do think there is a lot less luck, goblins or divine intervention involved, than some people seem to think around here.
No programmer would inflate his program with so much data, if it wasn't needed. And to make a statistically correct simulation, luck has to be kept out of the formulas (most of the time at least..)

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Dandelion

I guess the "RR > all" fraction has a lot more data, right?

But I really think that all those nice little skill values all the players have do make a difference when it comes to determine how a play is "played", even though it's all nothing but a couple of dice rolls in a row.. And I do think there is a lot less luck, goblins or divine intervention involved, than some people seem to think around here.
No programmer would inflate his program with so much data, if it wasn't needed. And to make a statistically correct simulation, luck has to be kept out of the formulas (most of the time at least..)

Every single piece of data we have points to the fact that if RR is the overwhelming factor in how targets are determined. More specifically, the RR of the players on the field determine the targets. Are there possibly some really odd combinations where you could fight against RR? Maybe. BUt in anything but a strange setup (that likely would have very little success because the game isn't very tolerant of whacky gameplans) will result in a logical distribution of targets based on RR.

To start throwing this other mess in just complicates the issue.

It's wonderful that you have all of these ideas about how it should work, but in reality much of it is not as complex as you'd like it to be.

[Dandelion]

Originally Posted by wade moore

To start throwing this other mess in just complicates the issue.

Yeah, I know.. the dinosaurs around here prefer it "simple"

So Y'all feel free to put the "data" on the table so that anybody can make his own choice for what to think of it.

I prefer the logical view that a programmer wouldn't stuff his code with data which isn't used.

[Firefly]

I thought read defense was the ability of a QB to throw away from double coverage. Hence, if a high RR is doubled a lot with a QB with good read defense, won't that lower his targets?

[Warhammer]

There is one thing that I believe affects the RR skill = targets and that is who the defense decides to double team. Not sure how much this affects things, but I believe the only time the log says that the QB threw away from the double coverage was when he checks the WR, and then goes to a second WR due to the double team.

This goes back to a question I asked a while back, would it be better off to have a QB with a low read defense when you have a stud WR?

EDIT: DOH! Took too long to type my response.

[sidthelid]

I agree about RR being the amount a guy is targeted, But what skill relates to how good a guy runs a route, a pretty important skill i would say.

[sidthelid]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

There is one thing that I believe affects the RR skill = targets and that is who the defense decides to double team. Not sure how much this affects things, but I believe the only time the log says that the QB threw away from the double coverage was when he checks the WR, and then goes to a second WR due to the double team.

This goes back to a question I asked a while back, would it be better off to have a QB with a low read defense when you have a stud WR?

EDIT: DOH! Took too long to type my response.

Also (say on 3rd and long) you mave have a GP to throw 100 % MP or LP but you end up throwing a SP to a back, i presume this happens when the QB's main two targets are well covered

[Subby]

Originally Posted by Dandelion

I prefer the logical view that a programmer wouldn't stuff his code with data which isn't used.

I would wager that over the course of a full season a number of variables in FOF are statistically insignificant.

[Hammer]

As the dinosaurs have stated RR simply equals targets in my opinion. Its not the overwhelming factor though. Endurance is actually a huge factor, bigger than RR believe it or not.

[TheMeat]

Good point on the endurance Hammer, I still believe that RR is the overwhelming factor but END is the runner-up. I concur with others that simply put, RR=targets. I just got my mouse recorder set up over the last couple weeks and using the Quiktest spreadsheets I'd say I've simmed over 1,500 seasons in the last week. I'm at work right now and don't have exact numbers but a couple tests convinced me that using a bunch of low RR wrs does hurt your teams performance. You either want one big-time stallion WR and a bunch of chumps, or you want a stable full of decent guys. A bunch of low-RR guys with good bars elsewhere will not perform well in my estimation.

The dice rolls that dandelion seems to hate are just terminology for the randomness that affects things over the short term, a sample of one season or ten SP years is not a good indicator. Take a team with a WR at 70 RR and a WR at 40 RR and run the same season 100 times with them. The 70 RR WR will ALWAYS...

I repeat: ALWAYS get more targets in this kind of testing. Change the pass distance and gameplan all you like, the only difference you will see is that if you turn up your short passing your RB and TE will get more targets and your WR less. But between WRs, the higher RR guy will ALWAYS get more targets over the course of serious testing.

The ability of a guy to "run a good route" does not apply to this game. He either gets targeted or he doesn't, and the success of the pass is largely determined by the QB vs. the Defense, with the other skills of the WR having some effect. All other factors are minor, or irrelevant.

[Ben E Lou]

To clarify Hammer's statement, Endurance is only a factor with relation to how often the guy is on the field and therefore his total targets. But in terms of who gets the target on a particular play, it is all about RR. Sure, maybe there are other really factors that have a minor effect here, but RR is by far the #1 determining factor on a given play. A low-endurance, high-RR guy surrounded by low-RR guys will get a very high target percentage, but his total targets won't be terribly high unless you're doing something like slotting him as FL2 in an all-3WR offense, in which case he'll be on the field for every single snap and get the extremely high targets you'd expect.

[sidthelid]

I'm interested in the endurance factor, if you play SP and call your own plays (i don't) then the more Receivers are targeted the more and more tired they get. I appreciate this could and probably does mean the WR will not play as many snaps as the game progress's but does it also mean his skill levels drop on the plays he does play due to his tiredness factor. If that is the case his RR along with other skills would drop.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Dandelion

Too bad that Sid's question can not be answered with a simple "yes" or "no"

This is simply incorrect. The answer to the actual question he asked is absolutely, unequivocally, "yes."

If your top Receiver has low Route running say around 35 he will not catch that many balls i believe. But if you surround him starters with lower Route Running will this put up his chance of being targeted more?

If you don't believe me, try setting up a team with a 20-40 RR WR, and every RB/FB/TE/WR with RR of 5 or lower. Run the season as many times as you want. The WR (assuming he has high enough endurance) will get a high percentage of the targets--much higher than you'd see otherwise.

[Yoda]

I wouldn't say that RR is the only factor. I think that double teams (which, granted are affected by route running) and the QB's ability to Read Defense (which is spelled out in the text file as "their ability to read the opposing defense, which determines how effective they are avoiding double-coverage to throw to a secondary receiver.") are factors as well.

I agree that RR is probably the largest factor, but is it 'all about' RR? No, I disagree with that assertion.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

If you don't believe me, try setting up a team with a 20-40 RR WR, and every RB/FB/TE/WR with RR of 5 or lower. Run the season as many times as you want. The WR (assuming he has high enough endurance) will get a high percentage of the targets--much higher than you'd see otherwise.

Actually, wouldn't you need to set up a MP league and go in and set up the opposing defenses as well, to see the effect of double coverage and the QB's Read defense as well?

I know from experience that a high RR(68) WR with a low RD(41) QB will still get a majority of the targets, but I haven't played with/tested with a QB that has a high RD (because if it makes no difference at all, it would be a useless skill, which I would find hard to believe).

Here's the WR/QB combo I am refering to. And yes, he was DC'ed ALOT.
WR
QB

Granted, he played with a TE that probably too some receptions away (79 RR). The TE had 68 targets.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Actually, wouldn't you need to set up a MP league and go in and set up the opposing defenses as well, to see the effect of double coverage and the QB's Read defense as well?

No. I've tested this enough to know extremely well how it works.

[sidthelid]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

No. I've tested this enough to know extremely well how it works.

So what your saying is double coverage and a QB's read skill has absoulutly no effect on who the QB throws to?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by sidthelid

So what your saying is double coverage and a QB's read skill has absoulutly no effect on who the QB throws to?

No. I'm saying that a significant RR disparity can trump all of that quite easily. Do the other factors matter? Sure. Do they matter enough to change the answer to your initial question. Nope.

[Dandelion]

to speak with an old american TV advertisement:

Where's the beef?

'Couple people here always write "I've tested this for 1000 seasons.." or "my testing shows.."
Guess there should be some solid numbers then, right? Spreadsheets maybe? And the fitting rosters, playbooks and all that stuff that might make a difference..

'Cause without solid numbers and results, that can be proven when trying to run the test under the same circumstances, it's just... opinions. And of those we get a lot here..

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by Dandelion

to speak with an old american TV advertisement:

Where's the beef?

'Couple people here always write "I've tested this for 1000 seasons.." or "my testing shows.."
Guess there should be some solid numbers then, right? Spreadsheets maybe? And the fitting rosters, playbooks and all that stuff that might make a difference..

'Cause without solid numbers and results, that can be proven when trying to run the test under the same circumstances, it's just... opinions. And of those we get a lot here..

Here's the difference:

Ben - has had one-on-one contact with the developer about a wide variety of issues/bugs/features of FOF, is considered one of the best FOF MP players in the community, and has contributed much research to the community (if you don't think so, do a search of AAA players from FOF 2001)

You - Registered three months ago.

Sorry, but everyone will and should take Ben more at his word than yours, regardless of the lack of pie charts, line graphs, or whatever have you.

Especially when you have no idea what standard deviation is.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Dandelion

'Couple people here always write "I've tested this for 1000 seasons.." or "my testing shows.."

Guess there should be some solid numbers then, right? Spreadsheets maybe? And the fitting rosters, playbooks and all that stuff that might make a difference..

'Cause without solid numbers and results, that can be proven when trying to run the test under the same circumstances, it's just... opinions. And of those we get a lot here..

[/quote]Frankly, because over 10+ years of being on the boards, a few people here have earned the right to be trusted on test results without giving out all the numbers, partly because they state when it's an opinion, a strong opinion, or an absolute fact. A guy asked if he can get more targets to his low RR WR by surrounding him with lower RR guys. The answer to that is absolutely, unequivocally, yes. This is not conjecture. It is a fact. Those who have been around these boards for a long time know that I'm not going to make that kind of statement flippantly. I'm trying to help this guy out. But I'm not willing to divulge everything I learned when I tested RR extensively several months ago, and posting my exact numbers would do that.

Put a WR with 35 RR on the field. Surround him with RB1/RB2/TE1/TE2/WR2/WR3/WR4/WR5/FB1/FB2 with RR less than 5. (0 is best, of course.) Double cover him every play. Put a QB out there with 100 Read Defense. It doesn't matter. He will get a much higher percentage of the targets than you would expect.

Here's one example. Test MP league--the one I used to test this many months ago. Double-cover top WR 100% of the time on every team. Porter has 36 RR. Brady has 92 read defense. Surround Porter with ball-gagged RR gimps and double cover him all the time, and here's what happens, hoss.

That's right. 233 targets for a 36-RR year 9 fully-unmasked player being double-covered on every pass-expecting defense. That's very much in line with the long-term testing. And if you turn double coverage down to the normal range, the increase in targets is pretty insignificant.

[Dandelion]

So what?

Still the question remains: where's the beef?

I don't deny the fact that Ben's opinions are based on experience.. nonetheless without any hard data to test against they're still only that: opinions.
And, although you might think that noobs like me should not fall under that rule, there IS the rule that as opinions are like ass holes, everyone is allowed to have one.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Dandelion

So what?

Still the question remains: where's the beef?

I don't deny the fact that Ben's opinions are based on experience.. nonetheless without any hard data to test against they're still only that: opinions.
And, although you might think that noobs like me should not fall under that rule, there IS the rule that as opinions are like ass holes, everyone is allowed to have one.

When I state opinions, I will be *extremely* careful to qualify them as opinions. But when I state information as facts, they are facts. I don't put myself out there like that without substantial cause to back it up.

[sidthelid]

Ok this is probably a stupid question but how do you test a 1000 seasons so quickly, what do i need to be able to do that? Thanks again.

[Dandelion]

ok.. easy question then:

How does the program code get to the result of a play?
Lets assume a 1st & 10 on the own 45. Percentages for run/short/long are 50/25/25 and possible formation might be either I Basic or Single back basic with an equal percentage (.. to make it easy)
And to keep it simple, lets agree the dice have already determined it will be a long pass attempt..
What dice rolls are made from the code after that then?

[sidthelid]

Originally Posted by Dandelion

ok.. easy question then:

How does the program code get to the result of a play?
Lets assume a 1st & 10 on the own 45. Percentages for run/short/long are 50/25/25 and possible formation might be either I Basic or Single back basic with an equal percentage (.. to make it easy)
And to keep it simple, lets agree the dice have already determined it will be a long pass attempt..
What dice rolls are made from the code after that then?

How the hell is he supposed to know that? Why don't you ask for Megan Fox's telephone number as well!

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by sidthelid

Ok this is probably a stupid question but how do you test a 1000 seasons so quickly, what do i need to be able to do that? Thanks again.

I don't do that, but my understanding is that software that auto-moves the mouse can help speed things along. I generally set things up in a way that a total of 25 seasons per data point is plenty--and often a total of 10 is enough.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by sidthelid

How the hell is he supposed to know that? Why don't you ask for Megan Fox's telephone number as well!

He knows he's beaten, so he's just being an ass now.

[Dandelion]

Originally Posted by sidthelid

How the hell is he supposed to know that?

Because he has had one-on-one contact with the developer about a wide variety of issues/bugs/features of FOF, is considered one of the best FOF MP players in the community, and has contributed much research to the community (if you don't think so, do a search of AAA players from FOF 2001)



So I guess he might have at least an opinion on how the game's code runs through that situation..

[sidthelid]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I don't do that, but my understanding is that software that auto-moves the mouse can help speed things along. I generally set things up in a way that a total of 25 seasons per data point is plenty--and often a total of 10 is enough.

Cool thanks, actually do you have Megan's phone number ..........and if you did you wouldn't give it to me right.

[Dandelion]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

He knows he's beaten, so he's just being an ass now.

tsk.. I'm not here to "fight" - so there's no way to get "beaten". I'm here to get informations. And up to now all I get are opinions which can't be veryfied..

So shall I take the lack of an answer to my question as a "I ain't got the foggiest.."?

[Ben E Lou]

You're not here to fight? Really? Then why are you continually fighting against people who state that they know with 100% certainty the answer to the guy's question? *shurg*

[Ben E Lou]

Dola...

...and frankly, I do think I have a pretty fair idea of how calculations are done in FOF, but that would be pointless opinion.

[Dandelion]

so asking for data that can be veryfied is "fighting" in Your eyes? Interesting...

- and I only asked for an opinion about the code.. so feel free to express it. You might even be right, neh?

[sidthelid]

Originally Posted by Dandelion

so asking for data that can be veryfied is "fighting" in Your eyes? Interesting...

- and I only asked for an opinion about the code.. so feel free to express it. You might even be right, neh?

MP players don't give state secrets away. FACT. MP Players certainly don't give state secrets away if your rude either

[sidthelid]

and if you want i have a spreadsheet to prove it

[Dandelion]

so the opinion about how a routine within the game's code works is considered a "state secret" by MP players? Wouldn't that make them a teensie-weensie bit paranoid? I mean, just imagine what happens if someone manages to really find out how that routine works... the end of the world would be near, I guess..