Locker coming back!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Well, you're not looking too hard then since the consensus seemed to be leaning Clausen - WalterFoootball.com: 2010 NFL Mock Draft Database . Locker was the (better version of) Jevan Snead. People love seizing a thing like that and hyping it up, but once the scouts actually started paying close attention and picking apart his flaws he would have fallen drastically. Potential like his would be enough to go #1 many drafts, but not when you have more polished (and high-potential) QB's like Clausen, Bradford and possibly Mallett coming out.

Actually, I looked at around ten just a few days ago (before Locker's announcement). Some of those draft tables have changed since then, but don't say I didn't do due diligence. Yeah, Clausen was always right there, too. Also, I never said he was definitely the #1 QB. I said Locker doesn't need to throw another pass to be the first quarterback taken in the draft, likely #1 or #2, and that's still true. You even say "leaning" Claussen--not exactly a ringing endorsement of Locker being the clear understudy.

BTW, I don't disagree that some of these other guys might be better options, and some might be more highly polished, but it's certainly not clear. It's certainly not clear enough for you to call me out on something as innocuous as that.

[DeToxRox]

To me it's fruitless to talk about what QB will go #1 because this year no one will know anything until private workouts. And no offense but Walter Football is the worse draft site I have ever read in my life. I can't believe people go there.

I still lol at people who said Stafford wouldn't have been the best QB in this year's "deep" QB class. Stafford would be far and away the #1 QB on the board no doubt about it. But that goes to show you that nothing is a given.

I still think there are too many questions with every QB coming out early this year that it'll be a crapshoot which one is taken first.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

And no offense but Walter Football is the worse draft site I have ever read in my life. I can't believe people go there.

I still lol at people who said Stafford wouldn't have been the best QB in this year's "deep" QB class. Stafford would be far and away the #1 QB on the board no doubt about it.

Maybe with another year and improvement but a lot of places had Sam Bradford projected ahead of him last year, and a lot of people were worried about his accuracy and lack of leadership coming out of college. If he was coming out this year with the same resume he'd be in the crapshoot with the other 4, not on a higher plane. Heck, his strongest selling point was arm strength and Mallett is the one QB in the last decade that blows him away there.

I only used Walter Football because it had a list of aggregated rankings. I don't think any one mock draft site is reputable, and don't care enough to compare past results.

Originally Posted by Chief

It's certainly not clear enough for you to call me out on something as innocuous as that.

It was only the definitiveness of your statement. I do believe there is a decent amount of downside risk to Locker coming out this year and he can cement his status as a top 5 pick next year. He (and Clausen) is not a lock to go top 5 - only Suh is, with McCoy, Berry and Okung probably locks for the top 10.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

It was only the definitiveness of your statement. I do believe there is a decent amount of downside risk to Locker coming out this year and he can cement his status as a top 5 pick next year. He (and Clausen) is not a lock to go top 5 - only Suh is, with McCoy, Berry and Okung probably locks for the top 10.

Your own draft site there disagrees with you. Claussen, for instance, is almost universally put in the top five. Locker nearly as much, in those still showing him. They seem much more likely to end up there than McCoy, for instance. In fact, I'm not sure what you're basing your impression on. Your own read on things? I am not a savvy football scout; I'm just going off of the mocks that I looked at, and they don't jibe with some what you say above.

And besides, my point has nothing to do with whether it's smart as a football move for Locker to come out. It's whether it's smart as a financial move.

These mocks have Locker have very high, among the top QBs taken, and in many cases, #1 or #2 in a strong QB draft. And the top rated QBs almost always go very high, throwing out the occasional exceptions like Quinn's drop or Rodgers.

So for the most part he can only go down. And even if in the unlikely event he maintains or improves upon his near top draft status, he's still going to make a ton less because of the rookie cap pretty much everyone knows is going to come out this upcoming CBA.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Your own draft site there disagrees with you. Clausen, for instance, is almost universally put in the top five. Locker nearly as much, in those still showing him.

Those don't affect my point at all. Clausen is a consensus top 5(top 2) pick, but he's not a lock anymore than potential #1's Brady Quinn and Aaron Rodgers were. Due to the nature of the QB position it is much more susceptible to huge falls. Name the last consensus top 5 DL/OL who slid to the 20's for anything other than character reasons.

[DeToxRox]

Well, looks like Locker came back because he wasn't given a 1st round grade by the Advisory Board:

Locker didn't get a first-round grade from Advisory Committee
Posted by Mike Florio on December 18, 2009 8:25 PM ET
For those of you who admire the dedication and/or question the sanity of Washington quarterback Jake Locker for deciding not to enter the NFL draft in what could be the last year of the big-money windfalls at the top of the pecking order, the decision to stay in school isn't as honorable and/or stupid as previously believed.

As pointed out in the Associated Press article regarding Locker's decision not to forgo his final season of college eligibility, Locker had submitted his name for consideration to the NFL Collegiate Advisory Committee, which estimates where a player might be drafted.

Despite a proclamation by ESPN's Todd McShay that Locker would/should/could be the first overall pick, a league source tells us that Locker didn't receive a first-round grade from the Advisory Committee.

The source concedes that Locker might have still be drafted in round one given the value of the position, but the source insists that McShay was flat wrong in his assessment of Locker.

"That's the problem," the source opined. "McShay is clueless. Up until three weeks before the 2008 draft, he said that [Kentucky's] Andre Woodson would be a first-round pick. He went in the sixth and is out of the league."

And the source explained that these opinions come not from the same-old rant by NFL scouts that guys like McShay and Mel Kiper have the luxury of popping off with no accountability as long as it all sounds good (the same-old rant has a significant amount of accuracy, by the way), but from concerns that guys like McShay do kids a disservice by pumping up their expectations.

"The problem I have with people like McShay saying stupid things is parents and others who 'advise' these kids think McShay knows what he is talking about," the source said. "And they believe him before they believe the Advisory Committee. Then, when the kids go a lot lower than projected they are pissed and/or depressed. . . . This stuff happens every year and we have to deal with the broken hearts because people who don't know what they are talking about put visions of grandeur into young players' heads."

This item isn't intended to be a shot at McShay. But if the Advisory Committee didn't give a first-round grade to the guy that McShay had at the top of his board, then something is wrong with this picture. And we're inclined to think the defect doesn't come from the Committee made up of folks who scout players for a living -- and whose ongoing careers depend not on their ability to talk smoothly about their views, but on whether enough of the players whom they believe to be good players become good players.

[DeToxRox]

Dola, that article does a good job running down a guy I hate more then Kiper. Fuck McShay.

[Eaglesfan27]

Sanchez also got a 2nd round grade from that same committee. Sometimes, the analysts are more correct than the advisory committee.

[jbergey22]

Hard for me to imagine Locker not being a first round pick if he had gone out. His speed, his arm, and his intangs rate pretty high in my book.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Well, looks like Locker came back because he wasn't given a 1st round grade by the Advisory Board:

Except that Locker made his decision before he got the Advisory Board results.