The 2010 MLB Season Thread

[SackAttack]

Dodgers beat Matt Cain again; he's never recorded a victory against them (0-8 in 14 tries), and has a career ERA/WHIP of 4.32/1.67 against them.


Against the rest of the NL West:

Arizona - 5-4, 3.49, 1.16 WHIP
Colorado - 10-6, 2.96, 1.19 WHIP
San Diego - 4-8, 3.12, 1.24 WHIP

Career mark of 50-58 with a 3.46 ERA.

I'm trying to decide just how badly he gets screwed over on run support by his offense. On the one hand, of that 50-58 career mark, I think he's something like 6-37 when he gets two runs or less. That's absurd on the face of it, but tonight would be one of those 37 losses. He got one run in support while he was in the game, but gave four right back to LA.

On the other hand, his record when he allows 2 ER or less is 40-16.

So we know that he's been the losing pitcher of record 37 times when his team scores 2 or fewer for him, and just 16 times when he's allowed 2 or fewer. If the offense is screwing him over when he's brilliant, why isn't there more overlap there?

Glancing at his career splits against the rest of the NL, it seems like he beats up on the Diamondbacks/Padres/Rockies/Marlins/Nationals in terms of low ERAs, and has marks in the high 3s/low 4s (or worse) against the rest of the NL.

I mean, low run support can only explain so much...right?

[dawgfan]

Cliff Lee is amazing, and it fucking sucks that so many of the M's hitters have had career worst seasons this year which will result in the team having to trade him away and no chance of seeing Lee & Felix pitching back-to-back in the post season.

[Butter]

Jay Bruce rescues the home series with the Phillies, and Cordero makes it stick for once.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Jay Bruce rescues the home series with the Phillies, and Cordero makes it stick for once.

Really nice series by the Reds. Three good games, they beat Halladay, and take two of three.

I'm still baffled why he left Halladay in there in the 8th...especially with Bruce up not being able to hit lefties.

[JPhillips]

Maybe there was a manager exchange program today.

[Big Fo]

Pro: Jair Jurrjens made his first start for the Braves since late April and pitched pretty well (5 innings, 1 run, 6 strikeouts though he did allow 6 hits and 2 walks) in a victory for the Braves.

Con: At least one person was blowing on a vuvuzela at Turner Field. Hopefully that doesn't become a regular occurrence.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

Con: At least one person blowing on a vuvuzela at Turner Field.

Hopefully he went home with it stuck in a different orifice than the one intended for it.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Bengie Molina traded to the Rangers for Chris Ray and a PTBNL:

Daily Pitch: MLB News, Standings, Schedules & More - USATODAY.com

Even with the sweep at the hands of the evils today, I am pretty freaking stoked about this news. It's depressing, because Molina was actually pretty amazing for us for 2 seasons...he's just been terrible since last year.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Dodgers beat Matt Cain again; he's never recorded a victory against them (0-8 in 14 tries), and has a career ERA/WHIP of 4.32/1.67 against them.


Against the rest of the NL West:

Arizona - 5-4, 3.49, 1.16 WHIP
Colorado - 10-6, 2.96, 1.19 WHIP
San Diego - 4-8, 3.12, 1.24 WHIP

Career mark of 50-58 with a 3.46 ERA.

I'm trying to decide just how badly he gets screwed over on run support by his offense. On the one hand, of that 50-58 career mark, I think he's something like 6-37 when he gets two runs or less. That's absurd on the face of it, but tonight would be one of those 37 losses. He got one run in support while he was in the game, but gave four right back to LA.

On the other hand, his record when he allows 2 ER or less is 40-16.

So we know that he's been the losing pitcher of record 37 times when his team scores 2 or fewer for him, and just 16 times when he's allowed 2 or fewer. If the offense is screwing him over when he's brilliant, why isn't there more overlap there?

Glancing at his career splits against the rest of the NL, it seems like he beats up on the Diamondbacks/Padres/Rockies/Marlins/Nationals in terms of low ERAs, and has marks in the high 3s/low 4s (or worse) against the rest of the NL.

I mean, low run support can only explain so much...right?

KNBR fired off a stat today that Cain has only gotten 15 runs of support EVER against the Dodgers, and that 10 of those 15 runs came in two games.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Bengie Molina traded to the Rangers for Chris Ray and a PTBNL:

Daily Pitch: MLB News, Standings, Schedules & More - USATODAY.com

Even with the sweep at the hands of the evils today, I am pretty freaking stoked about this news. It's depressing, because Molina was actually pretty amazing for us for 2 seasons...he's just been terrible since last year.

HAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAAH. I'm thrilled. Bengie is an awful player, and has been the last 2 years.

[kingfc22]

And the Posey era starts now. At least he will get at-bats on a near daily basis now.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

KNBR fired off a stat today that Cain has only gotten 15 runs of support EVER against the Dodgers, and that 10 of those 15 runs came in two games.

Sure.

If you're giving up 4.5 a game, and you're getting 1.1 a game in support, you aren't gonna win many, if any.

But what I'm getting at is, I've heard more than once and from multiple places that Matt Cain is just snakebit and never gets any run support, and while that's certainly true part of the time, what it ultimately comes down to is the offense doesn't pick him up when he blows chunks, and he gets a fair number of no-decisions when he gives up 2 or fewer.

But he's winning over 70% of his decisions in those cases, too, so those 1-0 Giants losses when he's on the mound, he's not getting those hung on him.

[k0ruptr]

couldnt figure out how to embed the bitch, but here is a cool video about Mariano Rivera

How Mariano Rivera Dominates Hitters - Interactive Feature - NYTimes.com

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Sure.

If you're giving up 4.5 a game, and you're getting 1.1 a game in support, you aren't gonna win many, if any.

But what I'm getting at is, I've heard more than once and from multiple places that Matt Cain is just snakebit and never gets any run support, and while that's certainly true part of the time, what it ultimately comes down to is the offense doesn't pick him up when he blows chunks, and he gets a fair number of no-decisions when he gives up 2 or fewer.

But he's winning over 70% of his decisions in those cases, too, so those 1-0 Giants losses when he's on the mound, he's not getting those hung on him.

Off my small sample size, a 70% winning% when giving up 2 or fewer is one of the lower marks in the league. That means in 30% of his decisions, he's giving up 2 ER and the offense is scoring 1 or 0, or he's giving up 1 and the offense is scoring 0. He also gets absolutely no easy/cheap wins (>2 ER) - he has 6 wins his entire career where he allowed more than 2 earned runs, and 0 when allowing more than 4 - and rarely gets bailed out when allowing >2.

4 prominent pitchers the last 4 years. GS/W-L/ERA/Run Support/Times team scored <3/W-L when allowing <3/W/L when allowing >2

Matt Cain - 115 35-45 3.36 ERA 3.54 RS/44 team <3/31-13 25 no-decisions allowing <3 / 4-32 10 no-decisions
Jon Lester - 92 44-17 3.36 ERA 5.31 RS/20 team <3/39-2 13 n-d allowing <3 / 5-15 18 no-decisions
Tim Lincecum - 105 48-20 2.93 ERA 4.61 RS/25 team <3/41-2 21 n-d allowing <3 / 7-18 16 no-decisions
Felix Hernandez - 111 47-28 3.24 ERA 4.29 RS/31 team <3/37-7 21 n-d allowing <3 / 10-21 25 no-decisions

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

Pro: Jair Jurrjens made his first start for the Braves since late April and pitched pretty well (5 innings, 1 run, 6 strikeouts though he did allow 6 hits and 2 walks) in a victory for the Braves.

Con: At least one person was blowing on a vuvuzela at Turner Field. Hopefully that doesn't become a regular occurrence.

The good news is, no one was there to be disturbed by it.

[oykib]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Sure.

If you're giving up 4.5 a game, and you're getting 1.1 a game in support, you aren't gonna win many, if any.

But what I'm getting at is, I've heard more than once and from multiple places that Matt Cain is just snakebit and never gets any run support, and while that's certainly true part of the time, what it ultimately comes down to is the offense doesn't pick him up when he blows chunks, and he gets a fair number of no-decisions when he gives up 2 or fewer.

But he's winning over 70% of his decisions in those cases, too, so those 1-0 Giants losses when he's on the mound, he's not getting those hung on him.

Back in college, my baseball coaching professor had a theory that fastball pitchers sometimes lull their own fielders into a state of inattentiveness that followed them to the plate. Still, that wouldn't account for Lincecum who-- without checking-- probably has a higher strikeout and swing and miss rate but doesn't suffer from the same lack of run support.

[korme]

Love playin the Cubbies... so does Marty

[from April '08]
"This is the kind of thing, quite honestly, right now, that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose. Among all baseball fans, and I can't attest to the Yankees or Red Sox, because we don't see them with any degree of regularity unless it's inter-league play, but far and away the most obnoxious fans in baseball, in this league, are those who follow this team right here. Throwing 15 or 18 balls onto the field, there's absolutely no excuse for that, and that is so typical of Chicago Cubs fans. It's unbelievable."

"You simply root against 'em. Ya'know, I've said all winter they talked about this team winning the division, and my comment is they won't win it, because at the end of the day, they still are the Chicago Cubs, and they will figure out a way to screw this whole thing up."

[korme]

Ever wonder why Steve Phillips hasn't gotten a new GM gig yet?

Starting next year the Mets will pay Bobby Bonilla $1.2 million per season through 2035 | HardballTalk

[Sun Tzu]

Well...inflation will take that 1.2 down to about half it's worth by the time it's all said and done. Still a pretty sweet deal on Bonilla's part.

In regards to Bengie being traded...it's about time. I never agreed with the idea of re-signing him this last off-season.

[Logan]

In this thread like 3 months ago.

[Sun Tzu]

FUCKING SHORTY

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

Well...inflation will take that 1.2 down to about half it's worth by the time it's all said and done. Still a pretty sweet deal on Bonilla's part.

In regards to Bengie being traded...it's about time. I never agreed with the idea of re-signing him this last off-season.

Well, remember, that's $1.2m per year for 25 years. Even if the ultimate value is 'only' an aggregate $15m instead of $30m, he's still tripled his money.

The $5.9m he was owed in 2010 would be worth about $7.5m today, but the current economic climate is such that who knows whether that 27% inflation rate over the last 10 years will continue for the next ten. He might end up coming out WAY ahead if inflation is slow to pick back up.

[Sun Tzu]

Oh I agree wholeheartedly. It's an awesome job by Bonilla to work that for himself. I'm sure he already had $50+ mil in the bank when he signed that contract.

[stevew]

Looks like the Giants got a pretty good pitching prospect back because they agreed to pay Molina's salary. Michael Main, who was the 24th selection in the 2007 draft.

[Bad-example]

Molina leaving means I was wrong in predicting Posey would be heading back to AAA at some point. I was pretty sure they would find some excuse to send him back to save money down the road.

My first thought upon hearing of the trade was, "Which middle reliever did Sabean get for him?"

[SirFozzie]

Now, the Sox injuries are coming in pairs, as both Jason Varitek and Manny Delcarmen go on the 15 day DL.

That makes EIGHT Sox players on the DL

Jason Varitek (6 weeks out)
Victor Martinez
Dustin Pedroia (6 weeks)
Jacoby Ellsbury (unknown time table)
Mike Lowell
Manny Delcarmen
Josh Beckett (3+ weeks to go)
Jeremy Hermida

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Now, the Sox injuries are coming in pairs, as both Jason Varitek and Manny Delcarmen go on the 15 day DL.

That makes EIGHT Sox players on the DL

Jason Varitek (6 weeks out)
Victor Martinez
Dustin Pedroia (6 weeks)
Jacoby Ellsbury (unknown time table)
Mike Lowell
Manny Delcarmen
Josh Beckett (3+ weeks to go)
Jeremy Hermida

Yeah, you guys are getting hit on the same level as the Angels were last year.

Although I would imagine Mets fans would look at the above as an improvement for them.

[JS19]

Pretty neat video/breakdown of why Mo Rivera is so dominant.

How Mariano Rivera Dominates Hitters - Interactive Feature - NYTimes.com

[larrymcg421]

Braves try to give one away, allowing a homer in the top of the 9th to tie it. Then in the top of the 11th and bases loaded, the batter misses his bunt on the suicide squeeze and they have the runner caught in a rundown, but Venters drops the throw and the runner scores.

McCann walks, Glaus doubles, and Infante knocks them both in in the bottom of the 11th for a great walk off win.

[Logan]

Mets won last night on a pickoff coming on a 3-2 count with 2 outs.

[rowech]

Reds score nine runs on three hits in the 7th. It's amazing Pinella just hasn't quit yet.

[JPhillips]

I'd love to see Pinella back with the Reds next year.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'd love to see Pinella back with the Reds next year.

Pinella's days a manager are done I think.

[JPhillips]

I'd guess so too, but he'd be a big help to the Reds.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'd guess so too, but he'd be a big help to the Reds.

Doubtful. I know Baker might make all kinds of questionable decisions but he's still got them in first place and is getting the most out of them right now.

There are times I think Pinella is really overrated as a manager and one who has had his time come and go. His antics though leave a mark with people and perhaps enhance him more than he really should be. For all the accolades he gets, he's only won anything of importance in 1990.

Lou Piniella Managerial Record - Baseball-Reference.com

With the talent he had in Seattle, there's really no excuse for not having wond a world series out of there...let a lone a pennant.

[JS19]

KRod, most overrated, and perhaps overpaid, CL in the game.

[larrymcg421]

Hanson bounces back from two terrible starts and the Braves continue to roll. They now have a 3 game lead on the Mets.

Dusty Baker would be horrified about how they're doing it too. The offense, which is 4th in the league in Runs Per game, is almost exclusively powered by walks.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Hanson bounces back from two terrible starts and the Braves continue to roll. They now have a 3 game lead on the Mets.

Dusty Baker would be horrified about how they're doing it too. The offense, which is 4th in the league in Runs Per game, is almost exclusively powered by walks.

Imagine how many runs they'd be scoring without all the base clogging.

(Easy target, I know, but it was necessary)

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Imagine how many runs they'd be scoring without all the base clogging.

(Easy target, I know, but it was necessary)

It's funny because they really do "clog the bases". They are 3rd worst in the NL in Stolen Bases.

[Lathum]

Absolute fucking joke the Mike Pelfrey didn't make the all star team. 10-2 with a 2.93 ERA, all because every team needs a representative. So some middle reliever from the Pirates gets a spot instead of someone more deserving. IT is a total joke, Pirates fans don't support their team so why should they have a representative? Are Pirates fans really going to tune in to watch Evan Meek when they don't even watch their own team during the season?

Pelfrey may not have made it anyway, but this nonsense about 1 rep from each team has to go when more deserving guys aren't making the roster, especially since the game actually means something.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Lathum

but this nonsense about 1 rep from each team has to go when more deserving guys aren't making the roster, especially since the game actually means something.

-100

I disagree completely, having every team represented is one of the things that makes baseball's All-Star game the only one worth watching.

[JS19]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

-100

I disagree completely, having every team represented is one of the things that makes baseball's All-Star game the only one worth watching.

Curious to hear your reasoning behind this. As Lathum said, having some MR from a suck ass team over a guy, and granted I'm a Mets fan, but a guy who is at least in somewhat of a discussion halfway through the season for the Cy Young makes the game more enticing to watch? Especially when the outcome of the game plays such a large role in the outcome of the season. Not saying you are wrong, I just don't see it. Sure, if it was still just some "exhibition game" than fine, let them all play. But when the game determines homefield advantage on the biggest stage, I wanna see the best.

[yacovfb]

I love how a team tied for first in the NL has the same number of all stars as the team in last. And this game is actually given meaning? Hilarious.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

-100

I disagree completely, having every team represented is one of the things that makes baseball's All-Star game the only one worth watching.

Not when home field for the World Series is on the line. The leagues best players should be on the field. This isn't little league where everyone gets a trophy. It is an absolute joke that a middle reliever from the Pirates that most people have never heard of is on the team over a guy who is 3rd in the league in wins and has an era under 3, and btw, Pelfrey and Meeks have the same number of saves, 1.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Absolute fucking joke the Mike Pelfrey didn't make the all star team. 10-2 with a 2.93 ERA, all because every team needs a representative. So some middle reliever from the Pirates gets a spot instead of someone more deserving. IT is a total joke, Pirates fans don't support their team so why should they have a representative? Are Pirates fans really going to tune in to watch Evan Meek when they don't even watch their own team during the season?

Pelfrey may not have made it anyway, but this nonsense about 1 rep from each team has to go when more deserving guys aren't making the roster, especially since the game actually means something.

Mat Latos: 9-4, 2.62 ERA, 100INN 70 Hits <-> 91 K <-> 26 BB

If you want to get upset about the process at least argue for the guy who got screwed the worst. (And I have no dog in the race, I am a Cardinal fan)

[Lathum]

I think I was pretty clear in saying Pelfrey may not have made it anyway, but the fact that this is the process in a game that means something is a joke.

[larrymcg421]

I think you're doing a disservice to Evan Meek. Look at his numbers. He's performed brilliantly in his role this year. Unless we're going to just ban Middle Relievers from the All Star Game, then there's no reason Meek shouldn't be there even if there wasn't a one player per team rule.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think I was pretty clear in saying Pelfrey may not have made it anyway, but the fact that this is the process in a game that means something is a joke.

You did after saying it was an absolute fucking joke that Pelfrey didn't make it. I am just saying that is how the all star game works...

1) Player from every team
2) Players from big markets/more hype (i.e. New York)
3) Players from small markets

So essentially you don't like rule #1. I don't like rule 1 or rule 2.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think I was pretty clear in saying Pelfrey may not have made it anyway, but the fact that this is the process in a game that means something is a joke.

Absolute fucking joke the Mike Pelfrey didn't make the all star team.

Just sayin.

[Lathum]

Well clearly your rule #2 didn't play out.

And I do think Pelfrey got robbed. I have watched every start this year, no way he isn't an all star. It is unfathomable to me how a guy who has 10 wins at the break doesn't make the team.