The 2010 MLB Season Thread

[rowech]

Something special going on in Reds-Phillies game.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by rowech

Something special going on in Reds-Phillies game.

There is some pitching going on...

[EagleFan]

Halladay is going to sue for lack of support sooner or later...

[EagleFan]

What are the odds this kid goes through 9 perfect and gets a no decision?

[rowech]

I can't even turn the game on because I didn't watch it from the start. Wife was watching something else and now I'm refusing to do anything but watch gamecast. The sad thing is that Dusty, in many ways, really should have just pinch hit for him in the top of the 8th. I know he can't but runner on 3rd, two outs, 0-0 game, pennant race...gotta at least think about it don't you?

[Easy Mac]

I can't believe the Philly fans are rooting against his kid... Well, I mean I can because it's Philly, but that's not cool to do. You respect it.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

I can't believe the Philly fans are rooting against his kid... Well, I mean I can because it's Philly, but that's not cool to do. You respect it.

Are you an idiot? You can't believe the home fans want their team to win a game that is currently 0-0?

[Easy Mac]

Pretty much. It's about respect. Go to any other park, and the fans would be giving the kid an ovation.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

Pretty much. It's about respect. Go to any other park, and the fans would be giving the kid an ovation.

Not at 0-0 they wouldn't. If it was like 5-0 and game in hand then yes.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by rowech

Not at 0-0 they wouldn't. If it was like 5-0 and game in hand then yes.

Thank you.

[RedKingGold]

This Reds-Phillies series has been pretty epic.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

I can't believe the Philly fans are rooting against his kid... Well, I mean I can because it's Philly, but that's not cool to do. You respect it.

Uh, what?

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Are you an idiot? You can't believe the home fans want their team to win a game that is currently 0-0?

Agreed.

Florida was openly rooting against Halladay in his perfect game, and I don't blame those three fans who showed up.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

Pretty much. It's about respect. Go to any other park, and the fans would be giving the kid an ovation.

Here's a dollar, go buy a clue. In a 0-0 game that they need to win there is no way that any fan of any team would rather see the visitor beat them with a perfect game than his team win the game.

[EagleFan]

Heard what Halladay's pitch count is? He's only 3 batters over the minimum so it can't be that high... just as I say that he goes 4 batters over the minimum.

[larrymcg421]

I'll give the kid respect if he does it. Until then, I don't want my team to get no hit, shutout, or just generally lose.

I'm actually hoping a bunt breaks it up so we can hear the whiners come out again with the usual bullshit.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Here's a dollar, go buy a clue. In a 0-0 game that they need to win there is no way that any fan of any team would rather see the visitor beat them with a perfect game than his team win the game.

You're delusional, seriously.

We want our team to win. You're hating on Phillies fans for that? Do you even like sports?

Look, I get it. Hating on Philadelphia fans as the "worst in sports" is the cool thing to do, but now you are just reaching.

[EagleFan]

Does this have to suck for the kid knowing as he goes to the mound in the bottom of the 9th that even if he is perfect this half of the inning he won't win the game yet and that he has to go at least 2 more times out there to get it?

[rowech]

ugh....just ugh...

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

You're delusional, seriously.

Phillies are a struggling after having such high expectations, they're playing a Reds team that has, quite frankly, been better than them this season, and you're hating on Phillies fans for that? Do you even like sports?

Look, I get it. Hating on Philadelphia fans as the "worst in sports" is the cool thing to do, but now you are just reaching.

what?

[rowech]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Does this have to suck for the kid knowing as he goes to the mound in the bottom of the 9th that even if he is perfect this half of the inning he won't win the game yet and that he has to go at least 2 more times out there to get it?

Not to mention....just one bad pitch...

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by rowech

Not to mention....just one bad pitch...

Like that?

[EagleFan]

Chooooooooooooooocccchhhhhh!!!!!!!!!

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

what?

Yeah, I need to hire a proofreader.

[EagleFan]

Do you take the kid out right now? Usually the batter after something like this is a major letdown batter for the pitcher.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Do you take the kid out right now? Usually the batter after something like this is a major letdown batter for the pitcher.

Nah, he's pitching to the Double Play machine right now. He'll get the bottom of the order out.

[rowech]

This sucks...perfect through 8 and now they're going to lose in the 9th after two rough losses the previous two nights. Wheels are coming off I'm afraid.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Yeah, I need to hire a proofreader.

I think you quoted the wrong person in your rant...

[EagleFan]

He just missed that one.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I think you quoted the wrong person in your rant...

Yeah, that too.

[TurnerONU22]

Votto with the All-star catch!!

[rowech]

How can a guy pitch a near perfect game and be grateful it's going to extra innings?

[EagleFan]

Crap, wasted a leadoff double.

Could there be three straight extra inning homeruns?

[stevew]

votto should have stopped that base hit with his penis. A true all star would have.

[EagleFan]

Time to pull Lidge?

[rowech]

Somehow, if the Phillies and Reds play each other in the playoffs, I think this series has put the Phillies as the favorite. Just horrible series.

[RedKingGold]

It would be a fun series to watch. Both teams matchup really, really well.

[Lathum]

Bob Sheppard passed away today

Bob Sheppard, longtime Yankee Stadium announcer, dies at 99 - ESPN New York

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Bob Sheppard passed away today

Bob Sheppard, longtime Yankee Stadium announcer, dies at 99 - ESPN New York

Just saw that. A real shame.

He hasn't been announcing for years now, of course, but it was interesting to me to listen to his pre-recorded announcement of Derek Jeter's at bats when I was at Yankee Stadium two years ago, the one Jeter insists being played whenever he goes to the plate.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

This Reds-Phillies series has been pretty epic.

It has been a very good series, but not so much if you're a Reds fan. 3 straight 9th inning or extra inning losses? It's like beating your head against a wall.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

It has been a very good series, but not so much if you're a Reds fan. 3 straight 9th inning or extra inning losses? It's like beating your head against a wall.

Yeah, heard on the radio last night that three straight walk off wins by one team over another same team hasn't happened since 2001 (M's over Rangers).

I actually figured it would have been even longer than that.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Bob Sheppard passed away today

Bob Sheppard, longtime Yankee Stadium announcer, dies at 99 - ESPN New York

It was incredible to go to Yankee Stadium and hear the same god-like voice that my father heard when he went to Yankee Stadium with his father in the 50s.

[rowech]

Another 1-0 Reds loss...ugh what a horrible series.

[JPhillips]

Thank God for the break. The offense needs a rest. Hopefully, though, the starting pitching from the past week can carry over to the second half.

And, please God, let Walt fix the bullpen.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by rowech

Another 1-0 Reds loss...ugh what a horrible series.

Here I thought it was a good series...

[RedKingGold]

I really hope this Phillies team gets healthy before falling out of the race. It'd be nice to have the opening day lineup intact for at least a month.

On the plus side, I think our bench will be much stronger and more prepared if we can get back to the post-season this year.

[Ksyrup]

Seems appropriate for this thread...

WAR, What Is It Good For? Picking All-Stars

Posted: July 11th, 2010 | Filed under: Baseball | 55 Comments »


I’ve long believed that most people who say they don’t like baseball statistics really don’t like YOUR baseball statistics. That is to say that they will mock the seeming obscurity (and the odd collection of letters) behind VORP or UZR or xFIP, but they will be happy to have extensive conversations about a player’s RBI totals, his number of errors, his wins. The latter numbers have the advantage of history, which make the seem more transparent and easy to understand, though this isn’t necessarily true.*


*There really isn’t a statistic out there, for example, that is more convoluted than pitcher wins. Imagine if wins did not exist as a statistic, and some Canadian blogger came up with it. Holy cow, would baseball people go nuts.

Look: Here is Rule 10.17 in the Major League Baseball rulebook, edited down somewhat to make it a bit simpler. The official scorer, according to Rule 10.17 in the Major League Baseball rulebook, will credit a win to:

The pitcher whose team assumes a lead while such pitcher is in the game, or during the inning on offense in which such pitcher is removed from the game, and does not relinquish such lead. That is unless:
(1) such pitcher is a starting pitcher and Rule 10.17(b) applies; or
(2) Rule 10.17(c) applies.
10.17(b) If the pitcher whose team assumes a lead while such pitcher is in the game, or during the inning on offense in which such pitcher is removed from the game, and does not relinquish such lead, is a starting pitcher who has not completed
(1) five innings of a game that lasts six or more innings on defense, or
(2) four innings of a game that lasts five innings on defense, then the official scorer shall credit as the winning pitcher the relief pitcher, if there is only one relief pitcher, or the relief pitcher who, in the official scorer’s judgment was the most effective, if there is more than one relief pitcher.
(c) The official scorer shall not credit as the winning pitcher a relief pitcher who is ineffective in a brief appearance, when at least one succeeding relief pitcher pitches effectively in helping his team maintain its lead.

Oh yeah, So simple. And people think OPS+ is complicated? We just THINK of pitcher wins as a simple concept because we’ve used them all our lives. And don’t even get into rule 10.16 — Earned and Unearned Runs. That is 1,767 words of fun.

I think about this again because, as you probably saw, Minnesota Twins first baseman Justin Morneau is sitting out the All-Star game after suffering a concussion. American League All-Star manager Joe Girardi replaced him with Chicago’s Paul Konerko instead of Boston’s Kevin Youkilis.

Now, this seems silly to me because Youkilis is both a better player than Paul Konerko, and he’s also having a better year than Paul Konerko. I think it’s silly, but not exactly life threatening — we’re talking about picking who is currently the third-best first baseman in the American League not picking what we should do if a meteor is heading toward earth. I already wrote that I think Konerko is having a fine year and should have made the All-Star team (ahead of David Ortiz).

It was Girardi’s explanation, more than anything, that baffled. He made the point that both players deserved to go about equally, and he seemed to resent that he even had to choose between them. And then he said this:

“It’s a hard choice to make. I could have taken (Konerko) or Youkilis. Konerko’s hitting slightly higher, has a couple more home runs and couple more RBIs. I went with Konerko. They both deserve to be there; that’s the problem with this … The numbers are close and one guy’s numbers are a little bit better. I took the guy whose numbers are a little bit better.”

Now, look, Joe Girardi is not some 12-year-old looking at the back of 1978 baseball cards. He’s the manager of the New York Yankees, the defending World Series champion, the $200 million super team and the biggest brand in American sports. And you’re telling me he really looks at the numbers of Paul Konerko and Kevin Youkilis’ numbers and thinks Konerko’s are “a little bit better?” This is beyond ludicrous.

Look, here’s the depth of Joe Girardi’s analysis:
– Konerko is hitting .299 with 20 homers and 63 RBIs.
– Youkilis is hitting .293 with 18 homers and 57 RBIs.

That’s it? That’s how far Joe Girardi is willing to go to pick his All-Star choice? Because, I’m looking only a little bit deeper here … Youkilis has three more doubles, five more triples and 12 more walks. Youkilis has scored 17 more runs (he leads the league). He even has three more stolen bases. His on-base percentage is 26 points higher, his slugging percentage is 19 points higher. I have absolutely no doubt that even looking only at the basic stats, Youkilis’ first half offensive numbers are slightly but distinctly better than Konerko’s …

But, of course, there’s another thing: Youkilis is a much better defensive player than Konerko. There are numbers that show this, though even people inside baseball who don’t believe in defensive numbers would concede the point. Youkilis is a versatile defender who has won a first base Gold Glove, and can play third base. Konerko is widely regarded as average-to-below average defensively at first base.

So, Girardi made what seems to me an odd choice here based on six points in batting average (a flawed statistic, as we have often discussed), six RBIs (an even more flawed statistics, as we have discussed even more often) and two home runs (Konerko hits in what has long been the best home run park in the league, and he has hit 15 of his 20 homers at home). Ridiculous.*

*Both Youkilis and Konerko play in what are good hitting home parks, but their home-road splits are very different. Youkilis is hitting 32 points higher at home, but his on-base percentages are about the same home and road and he is actually slugging a little bit better on the road.

Konerko, well, the story is a bit more pronounced:
Home: .342/.430/.712 with 15 homers, 33 runs, 38 RBIs.
Road: .255/.331/.407 with 5 homers, 17 runs, 25 RBIs.

All this makes me wish that there was a single statistic that managers like Joe Girardi could look at when choosing All-Star replacements, a one-stop shopping option that would allow him, at a glance, to make a much more reasonable decision. Of course, you would hope that Girardi or any All-Star manager when making a decision like this would look at more than one statistic and consider any number of variables and take in other people’s opinions, but we’re clearly not there yet if he’s picking Konerko because the guy has six more ribbies.

There is no shortage of valuable single number baseball measurements out there — Win Shares, VORP, OPS+, etc. — but I would say that WAR might be your best bet. The letters stand for Wins Above Replacement, a concept which can sound a bit intimidating to the uninitiated. People seem scared of the whole “replacement” concept. The point is to estimate how many more wins a player can bring your team over the sort of replacement player you should be able to get for the minimum salary. That concept will bother some people. The brilliant Tom Tango explained WAR here a couple of years ago, and here you can get a good feel for the concept and dive into the nuts and bolts. I would highly recommend it.

But I don’t need to know HOW my iPad works to enjoy it. WAR goes to great length to measure an everyday player’s hitting contributions and his fielding contributions, while taking into consideration the difficulty of the position he plays. I would not call it the perfect statistic only because I believe this is no one perfect statistic … you should always cross-check and use as many different views as you can find. But, assuming you don’t have time for all that, I think WAR is an awfully good place to start. It spits out a number that is simple to understand, easy to use for comparing one player to another, and offers a high level of confidence. If you measured players solely on WAR, I suspect you would be right a whole lot more often than many people in and around baseball who consider themselves experts.

And what does WAR say about Youkilis vs. Konerko? Well, fortunately WAR is now easily available on the awesome Fangraphs Web site and also at my lifeblood site, Baseball Reference. Unfortunately, it seems like WAR is figured somewhat differently at the two places, which really hurts the brand. I wish the smartest baseball people could get together and compromise on stats like this.

But in either place, it’s pretty clear who is having the more valuable year.

Fangraphs:
Kevin Youkilis: 3.4 WAR
Paul Konerko: 2.1 WAR

Baseball Reference:
Kevin Youkilis: 3.4 WAR
Paul Konerko: 2.8 WAR.

In both cases, Youkilis is the choice. We might not yet live in a society where Joe Girardi can tell fans that he chose Kevin Youkilis because he has a better WAR than Paul Konerko … a manager will STILL get more nods than shrugs when saying that a guy with a couple more home runs, and a handful more RBIs and batting average points is having a better year. But it’s just a bit dimwitted. If you had to pick one player to help your team win a game on Tuesday, Youkilis or Konerko, I feel confident in saying that you should pick Youkilis. If the Yankees had need for a first baseman to finish out the year, and they were given the option to get either Youkilis or Konerko for the same price, you would have to believe (hope) that Girardi would push hard for Youkilis.

You just wish somebody would bookmark Fangraphs on Girardi’s computer.

[Marmel]

The Yankee manager snubs the Red Sox guy. Shocking.

[Ksyrup]

I thought the title of that blog post was awesome.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I love the way the stathead writer assumes he knows more about baseball than a longtime player & manager.

I also particularly liked the way he used Youklis' runs scored advantage as a selling point. If I'm to believe that RBI's are meaningless since they're dependent upon all the players in the lineup ahead of the guy who drove them in, doesn't it also follow that Runs are meaningless since they're largely dependent upon all the players in the lineup behind the guy who got on base?

edit to add: I also really like the claim about how difficult it is to understand what constitutes a Win. I've known those rules since before I was a teenager, how fucking complicated can it really be, especially for a genius like the writer?