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#2351 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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It's also worth noting that Youklis was playing through a sore ankle just a few days ago, while there's no mention of any recent injury to Konerko that I can find.
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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#2352 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
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I think the writer's point wasn't that Wins are that hard to figure out. I think it was that Wins, if they were invented today, would be looked at as a convoluted stat invented by people who spent too much time in their mother's basements-- especially in regard to vulturing Wins as a relief pitcher.
Most sabermetricians do themselves a disservice by putting down traditional stats. They have their place. They are an easily understood snapshot of a player's performance. It's not really easy to judge the difference between a WAR of 3.4 and 2.8. What does that difference of .6 mean? If we look at triple crown stats of two players, it's usually pretty clear who's better and by how much. When they're close, most of us do make our own judgements of tie-breakers (position, pressure, defensive ability, etc.). Honestly, I really don't think the All-Star selections are worth a manager dealing with the minutiae of one pretty deserving guy vs. another slightly more deserving guy. And he's always going to pick the guy, his own player if it's at all close, that makes his life easier. Any AS snub has to take it on the chin, and his fans should too. Hell, Hank Greenberg once missed an AS game when he had 35HR and 100RBIs at the break. None of these guys situations compare to that. Last edited by oykib : 07-12-2010 at 11:01 AM. |
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#2353 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Bahston Mass
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I can't believe that guy had enough light in his mother's basement to write that ridiculous nonsense.
Oh wait, that's two time AP "Best Sports Columnist," New York Times bestselling author, and Sports Illustrated baseball senior writer Joe Posnanski.
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There's no I in Teamocil, at least not where you'd think |
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#2354 | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Quote:
Hmm, that might explain why virtually no one looks to SI for baseball coverage. The rest says a lot more about the declining quality of sportswriters than anything else.
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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#2355 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
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I am a noted "non-sabermetrician". I also don't like the Red Sox. And I like Paul Konerko.
Having said all that, I agree with Joe Pos on this one. Girardi should have looked closer at it. But, then, I'm still beyond annoyed that Girardi picked Sabathia over Weaver in the first place for the team (this has since been rectified, although Weav pitched yesterday, isn't he supposed to unavailable tomorrow?).
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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#2356 | |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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Quote:
You make a good argument about the hypocritical use of "Runs" as an argument, but the "longtime player/manager" argument is a bad one. Joe Morgan is one of the best 2B to ever play the game. Dusty Baker is a longtime player/manager. Both have said some of the dumbest things ever said about baseball.
__________________
Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner |
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#2357 | |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Edmonton, AB
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Quote:
I guess it boils down to what an "All-Star" is and should be. The popular theory is that it's the best stats (whatever they may be) get the call along with the most popular (for whatever reason). Maybe it even gets "personal", like whose wife makes the best apple pie, who knows? My point is, I think Joe put his foot in his mouth when he tried to justify his decision...it was his decision to make and he made it for whatever reason. He just needed to say that both have had fine seasons and that he felt Konerko's was more deserving...no need to go into why. |
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#2358 | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Quote:
I won't disagree with you on either guy. But they know at least as much as the dude in his mom's basement. After all, both sets of commentators say some of the dumbest things ever said about baseball.
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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#2360 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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I believe so. YMMV. {shrug} edit to add: If that's a problem for ya, there's always the Ignore button.
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis Last edited by JonInMiddleGA : 07-12-2010 at 12:20 PM. |
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#2361 | |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Washington, DC
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Quote:
How do you feel about it 8 runs later? ![]()
__________________
Sixteen Colors ANSI/ASCII Art Archive "...the better half of the Moores..." -cthomer5000 |
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#2362 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Concord, MA/UMass
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Ehh... I'd prefer every one of our guys get the days off anyway, especially one like Youkilis who has a history of declining as the year goes on and some weird foot/ankle injury. Bad enough that we'll apparently bump Lester so he can pitch in this. Plus, it's not like he picked Teixeira and his .825 OPS (although the .262 BABIP will regress to the mean) over Youk.
btw Quote:
Last edited by BishopMVP : 07-12-2010 at 01:27 PM. |
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#2363 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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If they insist on having a W/L stat, then I'd prefer they give the win to the starter if a) his team wins and b) the outing met certain criteria (i.e. a minimum number of innings and a Quality start).
The pitcher that pitches 7 shutout innings whose team scores in the bottom of the 9th deserves a Win as much as the pitcher who pitched 7 shutout winnings and leaves with 15-0 lead. Likewise, a pitchers who gives up 6 runs in 5 innings does not deserve a Win under any circumstance.
__________________
Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner Last edited by larrymcg421 : 07-12-2010 at 01:50 PM. |
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#2364 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Seattle
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Gee, what a shocker - an award-winning traditional media journalist who also happens to blog and has embraced modern statistical analysis of baseball is dismissed by JIMG.
He makes an outstanding point about the absurdity of those who cling to old, traditional baseball statistics and reject these complicated, modern statistics by showing just how convoluted the "win" statistic is for pitchers, and the point flies miles above JIMG's head. Rarely have you made yourself look more like a neanderthal than you have lately in this thread, and with your posting history, that's really saying something. |
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#2365 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Las Vegas
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he didn't have to pick on Paulie
lol.
__________________
Xbox Live Gamertag: k0ruptr My Favorite Teams : Chicago White Sox - Carolina Panthers - Orlando Magic - Phoenix Suns - Anaheim Ducks - Hawaii Warriors - Oregon Ducks |
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#2366 | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
It's cause he does.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
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#2367 | |||
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Quote:
dawg, I'm an award winning traditional media journalist (2x Georgia Stringer of the Year, once for the old UPI and once for AP), if that doesn't cause you to strongly discount the value of awards from the wire services then I don't know what will. That weighs quite a bit on how little value I place on them since all that was really required to win was being prolific, not being particularly talented. Quote:
Let me see here, this genuis complains that older stats have the advantage of history, which make the seem more transparent and easy to understand, though this isn’t necessarily true and Oh yeah, So simple. And people think OPS+ is complicated? Now those two quotes give me the idea that he believes the criteria for wins are more complicated than OPS+ as well as difficult to understand. My response to that is that if I could grasp them easily as a child then how impressed am I going to be with an alleged gifted writer who is gives every indication that he struggles/has struggled with them? Quote:
Too many of the pseudo-intellectual stat heads are like listening to Tony Schiavone proclaim "it's the greatest Monday Nitro ever" for 52 straight Monday nights. And then along comes another wanna be expert who complains about the complexity of the Wins criteria? But I'm the neanderthal? Well fuck you very much dawgfan, that's why there's an ignore button, for both our sakes please make use of it more often. edit to add: And I'll pledge to do a better job of refraining from clicking on posts from people I've had ignored for ages just in order to maintain the flow of a conversation. It kind of dawns on me today how high a percentage of the people I find to be intolerable twits in this conversation I've already got on ignore, that's my own fault for engaging them more than is necessary.
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis Last edited by JonInMiddleGA : 07-12-2010 at 02:38 PM. |
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#2368 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Feb 2006
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Jon,
If you have two identical batters in every way for an entire season. They get the same exact ABs, the same exact walks, the same exact doubles, etc. in the exact same order for the entire season....one guy bats 3rd or 4th and the other guy bats 8th...are they going to have the same number of RBIs? Are they going to have the same numbers of runs scored? Runs are obviously important as that's what makes teams win/lose but the runs stat on their own don't mean anything until you can figure out the best way to produce those runs. That's what the new stats are about and they are extremely important to understanding baseball and a player's contributions a lot better. What stats contribute directly to producting runs, how stong do they contribute, is it worth paying/valuing those pieces more than others. That is what the new fangled stats are all about. As far as wins...they're pointless. I've known that since I was 12 and started doing draft leagues for tabletop games. I didn't pay attention one bit. I looked at ERA and WHIP. If a guy gives up no baserunners and no runs, he might not get a win. How does that measure how well a guy pitched. |
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#2369 | ||
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Quote:
Rowech, you do get that I understand pretty much all of the new ones, right? I tend to stop caring enough to understand them once people start adding XYZ+ to a measurement because it strikes me as overkill & I'm simply not that interested but there's nothing about the stats themselves that mystifies me. I've got my own grognard tendencies & am a fan of stats in general and if you had seen some of the convoluted measurements I've come up with for various tabletop games then you'd know there isn't much that's too convoluted for me to turn into a stat. My primary objection is to absurdity, like the claims that RBI measures nothing (which occurred up the thread multiple times). Just say its not the end all/be all of offensive stats, you won't hear a peep out complaint from me. Claim that it's a poor measurement compared to NewStatABC and I'll generally let you make your case without much complaint. Dismiss it as a measurement of nothing and I may find myself compelled to call you out for a damned idiot. Quote:
That's not necessarily how I view what Wins measures really. There's an element of that, but moreso an element of how the team overall fares when he pitches, which is something that most of the new stats doesn't even address. If you aren't playing fantasy baseball, where team performance doesn't matter, then there are definitely more useful stats. If you're a fan of a team or interested in team performance, then it's at worst a quick indication of some measure of how the team performs when that pitchers is crucial to the outcome. Imperfect? No argument from me. In the case of this latest outbreak, I find the writer to be laughable, although not the worst example of irrational prejudice for the latestgreateststat. The runs/rbi's thing pretty much sealed the deal for me on it, the rest of my objection is because he comes across as a pretentious asshole, much like the large majority of latestgreateststat proponents.
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis Last edited by JonInMiddleGA : 07-12-2010 at 03:02 PM. |
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#2370 | ||
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Concord, MA/UMass
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Quote:
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#2371 | ||||
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Seattle
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Quote:
Quote:
Jon, we understood Wins as kids because that was one of the primary stats of the time. Kids today that read blogs grasp advanced metrics. And that's his point. Now, I think he glosses over the complexity argument - while I get what things like WAR and VORP and xFIP measure, I couldn't give you an exact formula, whereas I can recite pretty much all the basics about how pitcher wins are defined. That's not to say that pitcher wins aren't still an odd, somewhat convoluted statistic, but it is easier to explain than many of the new advanced metrics. Quote:
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#2372 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
This is pretty much the way I look at it. I love stats. Love them, love them, love them. I love advanced stats, basic stats, any kind of stats. If it can be measured in some way, I'm there. It's just the no stat is entirely worthless. It's the context you take with the stat that's important. If I'm talking with someone and they say "player x had 10 more RBI and 2 more HR than player y, he's clearly the better player" I'll step up and throw a fit. Probably to the point he'll think I'm an unbelievable geek and will run away. But say something like RBI is worthless? Please. |
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#2373 |
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Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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I enjoy the HR hitting competition but don't know how much of Boomer I can stand
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#2374 | |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: NC
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Quote:
To top it all off the loudmouth is now a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame
__________________
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball...and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time." -Jim Bouton |
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#2375 |
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Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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#2376 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Seattle
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#2377 |
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assmaster
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Bloomington, IN
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Just for the record: I hate the All-Star break.
I wish they would play baseball 358 days a year. Give the WS winner a week off to bask, then back at it. ![]() |
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#2378 |
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assmaster
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Bloomington, IN
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dola,,,
I completely recognize that in the above scenario that the WS would subsequently become meaningless to me, and then I'd hate that, too. I still hate the All-Star break. |
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#2379 | |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Rahway, NJ
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Quote:
I think the best way to describe it is this: It's not a good stat to use when comparing players. |
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#2380 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Feb 2006
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All-star break is essentially the only two days (Mon and Wed) where there are no major sports being played at all. I believe it's still the only two days on the entire calender where there is no baseball, football, basketball, or hockey.
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#2381 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Minnesota
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I think you are missing something if you choose to ignore sabermetric stats however in the case of Youkilis and Konerko. I have seen much worse decisions. The White Sox are leading the AL Central and Konerko is the major offensive contributor on that team. As a Twins fan I am still waiting for a 2 month long slump that he seems to have every year to start however.
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#2382 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: The Dirty
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Is George Steinbrenner dead?
__________________
Commish of the United Baseball League (OOTP 6.5) |
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#2383 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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#2384 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: The Dirty
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Yup, just heard it on the radio
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__________________
Commish of the United Baseball League (OOTP 6.5) |
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#2385 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis Last edited by JonInMiddleGA : 07-13-2010 at 08:53 AM. |
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#2386 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
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man, that sucks.
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#2387 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Minnesota
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Quote:
They dont have a legit chance of making the World Series IMO. Their pitching will still be the worst among AL playoff teams. This is probably why the Twins and their small market have been able to stay successful for a very long time. They dont give up their key prospects for 2 month rentals. The Rangers have one of the most talented minor leagues in baseball right now so Im sure they would have had other chances to make the playoffs. Id be pissed if I was a Rangers fan. Most pitchers that go to Texas just suck anyway as its not much different than the old coors field there. |
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#2388 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
First off, the playoffs are a crapshoot. The Braves had a dominant pitching staff for years and won once. You have to get a little lucky, catch some breaks and get hot at the right time. If you have a chance to get in the playoffs, you do it. The Rangers have a deep, deep minor league system. They can afford to give up a prospect for a rental, and then turn that into 2 draft picks. I think this was a good move. |
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#2389 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Minnesota
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Quote:
First of all this move guarantees nothings. The White Sox are always throwing shit against the fan around this time of year and it hardly ever works out for them. Secondly we obviously have different opinions on this as I am a Twins fan and they dont waste their talent on this type of stuff. Other teams may feel a 2 month rental on a good pitcher is worth one of the top prospects in baseball while I think it is just not very smart. I am very glad the Twins opted to not give up Ramos and Hicks for Lee. If the playoffs started today the Rangers odds of winning the World Series would probably be around 30-1. So basically they gave up one of the top prospects for a 1 and 30 chance of winning the World Series. With that said the Rangers do have a decent sized payroll budget so this is a mistake they can likely live with. Last edited by jbergey22 : 07-13-2010 at 10:36 AM. |
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#2390 | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Quote:
BoDog lists them today at 15/2. Only the Yankees are better odds at 3/1, with Tampa also 15/2.
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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#2391 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: NYC
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jbergey talking out of his ass? MBBF thinking Steinbrenner is the devil?
Welcome to FOFC. |
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#2392 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Minnesota
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#2393 | |
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General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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Quote:
I would say the odds are, at worst, 8 1/2 or 9 to 1. I'd only put them a little lower than 8-1 because they might not have home-field in an ALCS. Baseball outcomes in short series are SO close to a coin flip. You could put the Pirates in the playoffs and they wouldn't be much worse than a 10-1 shot. Last edited by molson : 07-13-2010 at 10:42 AM. |
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#2394 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Minnesota
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#2395 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Minnesota
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Quote:
Oh cmon now. There is 8 teams in the playoffs. If all teams were even theyd all be 8-1 minus the juice. If the books make the Yankees 2-1 which will likely happen that leaves the rest of the teams at 16-1 odds. Since I believe the Rangers are going to be the least capable team in the playoffs I dont feel my 30-1 is terribly off. Last edited by jbergey22 : 07-13-2010 at 10:50 AM. |
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#2396 | |
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General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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Quote:
That's my point. In a 5 or 7 game series, everything is just about even money, with a slight advantage for home field/last ups. Let me put it this way. Playing .600 baseball is a great achievement. (97 wins over a season). In the NFL, .600 gets you 9 1/2 wins in a season. In the NBA, .600 is 49 wins. Baseball is a different kind of game. Results can only be evaluated over months. Maybe some mathematician can figure out the odds in a 5 or 7 game series, if a .600 team plays a .550 team. I'm sure there's not much of a difference. Last edited by molson : 07-13-2010 at 10:52 AM. |
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#2397 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Minnesota
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#2398 | |
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Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
Comparing going out and getting an over the hill Ken Griffey Jr. or a broken down Jake Peavy to getting possibly the best pitcher in baseball and a guy who was unhittable in the playoffs last year is absurd. |
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#2399 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Minnesota
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Quote:
Their list is a hell of a lot longer than them two. So if Lee goes to Texas and sucks the rest of this year and gets hurt next year was he over the hill right now as well? Peavy was in high demand last year at this time in case you had forgotten. |
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#2400 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Let's take a step back for a second. The Rangers have a great farm system. It isn't like they have no one else in the system and dealt their only future star. Sometimes you need to deal big prospects every once in a while to improve you team while still growing home grown talent.
__________________
"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
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