The 2010 MLB Season Thread

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

As much as I want the Rangers to win, I have absolutely no confidence they will win the series. The game 1 loss is the kind you look back on and shake your head thinking "if only..." while sitting on the couch watching someone else play in the WS.

That said... FUCK THE YANKEES.

No questions Ksyrup. I thought the same thing. And there is still that doubt in the back of my mind that the Rangers can win it. I've been impressed with how they responded though. They have dominated the two games following and are now in a great position. Tonight will tell a lot, because their bullpen is going to have to throw some innings. They collapse like they did in game one, you have to think their only shot will be to blow the Yankees out again and then have Cliff Lee go nine in game 7.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Just for kicks, some jbergey quotes after the Cliff Lee trade:

First take on the trade:



Yep, Rangers fans are PISSED off about this deal. Really, really pissed off.

in response to me saying the playoffs are a crapshoot:



ummmmm. . ok Wish I ould have had those 30-1 odds now.

In response to Logan:



Well, they got out of the first round. Because of Cliff Lee. Smoak doesn't look like a five time all star to me.

Another comment:



The Rangers lose Lee this offseason they get two more first round picks with a farm system that is already deep as hell. I think they may just be ok after this no matter what.

Lastly:



We don't need to wait next year or even the offseason. This deal is already a great one for the Rangers. He got them out of round one and gave them a lead over the vaunted Yankees in a critical game three. Even were they to lose this series, they can look in the mirror and know they gave themselves every chance they could to go as deep into the playoffs as possible.

The Twins are my second favorite team in baseball. They chose to avoid the "rental" and were swept out once again by the Yankees.

FWIW: I think the Rangers have a chance of keeping Lee. He seems to like the clubhouse, they have their ownership situation straightened out and I could see him taking a little less to stay in a good situation.

Maybe that's just me praying he doesn't go to the evil empire, but I don't think it's a done deal.

You sound like a person desperate to prove a point before the results come up negative. These are the trades we always look back on in 10 years and say WTF was that GM thinking. Trading a future multi year all-star for a rental player. Numerous examples of this type of trade going bad. Unless Texas wins the World Series or Lee re-signs I wouldnt call this trade a success at this point.

The Rangers have been very smart in using him so its been working out for them in the playoffs. They have been keeping him out of pitching in his home stadium.

These were my thoughts in a nutshell. He was 4-6 with a 3.98 ERA with the Rangers in the regular season and they had a worse record with him than they did without him. They are 6 game away from winning the world series. A bit early to be giving them the title dont you think?

Also, a bit early to call Smoak a bust.

Remember when the Red Sox thought Larry Anderson was the missing piece to get them back to the World Series. Well they gave up Jeff Bagewell for that piece and still didnt get to the World Series.

In any case, this trade depends on how these prospects develop before we can decide on a winner or a loser. It may have made sense for the Rangers to do it however if Smoak turns into Albert Pujols and one of the other prospects turns into an All Star player and the Mariners win 5 world series titles you'd have a hard time convincing me the Rangers won this trade.

I've had a decent history on talent evaluations I dont think Im just a "fan" however you do have a decent point.

As Ive mentioned I feel Lee wont be successful in Texas and I dont think Texas is very good therefore as a person with an unbias opinion I think the Rangers dropped the ball on this one. We will see in 5 years if I was right or wrong.

Texas has basically been the same team for the past 10 years. They hit great but they cant pitch which is a lot to do with the park they play in. Id be very surpised if Lee has under a 4.00 ERA and wins more games than he loses with Texas.

A flyball pitcher is Texas is a no-no.

[TroyF]

The Rangers haven't been trying to keep him from pitching in his home ball park. It's the way the schedule broke. He pitched at TB on day one because that's where the series began. With a 2-0 and 2-1 lead, they wanted to hold him off if they could so he could pitch game one of the ALCS in his home ball park. When that couldn't happen, he pitched in game three, because they wanted to pitch him on regular rest AND so he could pitch in a potential game 7 which of course would be played in Texas.

Bringing up his record in Texas is also a bit disingenuous. He got rocked in his first game in Texas. He then threw 17.3 innings with 10 hits, 0 walks, 2 ER and 17 K in his next two starts there.

Then in August he had some back problems. Over a five start stretch, he gave up 30 runs on 43 hits. Three of those starts happened on the road. After they shut him down, he pitched twice at home the rest of the year. His stats in those games were 15 IP, 6 hits, 1 ER, 3 BB and 13 K.

Even with the bad starts, he gave up 5 HR in 7 games in Texas and 3 of those came in the first game he pitched there.

Also, I think I said in the post, it doesn't matter if the Rangers win or not. The Yankees could certainly come back and win this series. It would shock nobody. But the Rangers can look at their fans and say they did everything they could to give them the best shot of winning. They won a playoff series and are very competitive in the ALCS. Those chances don't come around often.

As for Smoak, I don't necessarily think he's a bust. On the other side, he's got a lot of work to do and the Rangers are going to be just fine without him, even if Cliff Lee leaves. Their system is loaded and if Lee leaves the scouts who loaded up the farm system get two more first round picks to play with.

That's far from Armageddon for the Rangers.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by TroyF

The Rangers haven't been trying to keep him from pitching in his home ball park. It's the way the schedule broke. He pitched at TB on day one because that's where the series began. With a 2-0 and 2-1 lead, they wanted to hold him off if they could so he could pitch game one of the ALCS in his home ball park. When that couldn't happen, he pitched in game three, because they wanted to pitch him on regular rest AND so he could pitch in a potential game 7 which of course would be played in Texas.

Bringing up his record in Texas is also a bit disingenuous. He got rocked in his first game in Texas. He then threw 17.3 innings with 10 hits, 0 walks, 2 ER and 17 K in his next two starts there.

Then in August he had some back problems. Over a five start stretch, he gave up 30 runs on 43 hits. Three of those starts happened on the road. After they shut him down, he pitched twice at home the rest of the year. His stats in those games were 15 IP, 6 hits, 1 ER, 3 BB and 13 K.

Even with the bad starts, he gave up 5 HR in 7 games in Texas and 3 of those came in the first game he pitched there.

Also, I think I said in the post, it doesn't matter if the Rangers win or not. The Yankees could certainly come back and win this series. It would shock nobody. But the Rangers can look at their fans and say they did everything they could to give them the best shot of winning. They won a playoff series and are very competitive in the ALCS. Those chances don't come around often.

As for Smoak, I don't necessarily think he's a bust. On the other side, he's got a lot of work to do and the Rangers are going to be just fine without him, even if Cliff Lee leaves. Their system is loaded and if Lee leaves the scouts who loaded up the farm system get two more first round picks to play with.

That's far from Armageddon for the Rangers.

Quite a few trades on this list involving rental players for top prospects Troy.

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I mean lets be serious here. If the Rangers fall short of winning the world series and Smoak turns into a Carlos Delgado type player you think the Rangers fans are going to be thrilled with this trade? IMO the trade is going to be judged on whether they win the world series or not. They didnt really need him to get to the playoffs as they were 7 games up at the time and actually had a worse record with him.

He certainly has performed great in the playoffs though. He is giving the team every chance to win.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by jbergey

I am very glad the Twins opted to not give up Ramos and Hicks for Lee.

Originally Posted by ESPN

In the middle of another tight division race, the Minnesota Twins acquired All-Star closer Matt Capps from the Washington Nationals late Thursday night for prized catching prospect Wilson Ramos and minor league left-hander Joe Testa. Washington Nationals trade Matt Capps to Minnesota Twins for Wilson Ramos, pitcher - ESPN

I'd like to hear you defend this move.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Quite a few trades on this list involving rental players for top prospects Troy.

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I mean lets be serious here. If the Rangers fall short of winning the world series and Smoak turns into a Carlos Delgado type player you think the Rangers fans are going to be thrilled with this trade? IMO the trade is going to be judged on whether they win the world series or not. They didnt really need him to get to the playoffs as they were 7 games up at the time and actually had a worse record with him.

He certainly has performed great in the playoffs though. He is giving the team every chance to win.

Where's the list of deadline trades that worked out well? Selection bias, my friend.

It's a calculated risk the Rangers took, and saying it hasn't paid off is whistling through the graveyard.

Or, in FOFC-speak, dig up, stupid!

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Twins made a bonehead move. Relief pitching hasnt been a big problem for them it has been the starting pitching. Now they trade one of their best prospects for a closer that isnt a huge upgrade IMO.

Hows this?

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Where's the list of deadline trades that worked out well? Selection bias, my friend.

It's a calculated risk the Rangers took, and saying it hasn't paid off is whistling through the graveyard.

Or, in FOFC-speak, dig up, stupid!

Isnt this my fucking point? Lets wait before we judge these damn trades instead of bringing them up everytime the rangers win a fucking game.

Of course it looks great for the Rangers right now. Most of the prospects the Mariners got havent even seen a major league field.

[Butter]

If you want to crown the Rangers, then crown their ass!

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Isnt this my fucking point? Lets wait before we judge these damn trades instead of bringing them up everytime the rangers win a fucking game.

Of course it looks great for the Rangers right now. Most of the prospects the Mariners got havent even seen a major league field.

No, the point is that it's already a win for the Rangers. They have a great shot of going to the World Series because of the trade. It could be a win for the Mariners as well. That part is still up in the air.

[AENeuman]

I understand what jbergey is trying to say, Eli Manning is one of the greatest qb's

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

No, the point is that it's already a win for the Rangers. They have a great shot of going to the World Series because of the trade. It could be a win for the Mariners as well. That part is still up in the air.

Bullshit. The Rangers would have won the division without him. They were looking at home field without Cliff Lee and ended finishing with the worst record of all the division winners. They beat the Rays and are up 2-1 on the Yankees and now everyone is home beating off to Cliff Lee photos.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Bullshit. The Rangers would have won the division without him. They were looking at home field without Cliff Lee and ended finishing with the worst record of all the division winners. They beat the Rays and are up 2-1 on the Yankees and now everyone is home beating off to Cliff Lee photos.

I have a hard time believing they get past Tampa without him, but opinions are like assholes I suppose.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Bullshit. The Rangers would have won the division without him. They were looking at home field without Cliff Lee and ended finishing with the worst record of all the division winners. They beat the Rays and are up 2-1 on the Yankees and now everyone is home beating off to Cliff Lee photos.

They had the worst record of the division winners...but Lee was the main factor in beating one of those better division winners. Something you didn't think they'd do. The reason you don't understand this whole argument is because you're a complete schmuck, and schmucks don't comprehend things like this.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

I have a hard time believing they get past Tampa without him, but opinions are like assholes I suppose.

Id admit that they probably wouldnt have gotten past Tampa without him. However I dont feel they would have traded Smoak and the others just to get past Tampa in the playoffs. I am sure they had bigger aspirations.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Logan

They had the worst record of the division winners...but Lee was the main factor in beating one of those better division winners. Something you didn't think they'd do. The reason you don't understand this whole argument is because you're a complete schmuck, and schmucks don't comprehend things like this.

Welcome back moron. Ive missed your intelligence.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

... and those bigger aspirations are playing out as we speak. It's not like Texas gets this far often. Sometimes you have to go all in with a good hand.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Welcome back moron. Ive missed your intelligence.

The last time you responded to me, you said that Texas wouldn't get out of the first round. So I'm guessing you really didn't miss my intelligence.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

... and those bigger aspirations are playing out as we speak. It's not like Texas gets this far often. Sometimes you have to go all in with a good hand.

Fair enough.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

... and those bigger aspirations are playing out as we speak. It's not like Texas gets this far often. Sometimes you have to go all in with a good hand.

The Rangers are doing exactly what you trade away prospects to do. This is it. This is as good as it gets. Justin Smoak doesn't exactly guarantee multiple world series championship for the Mariners. If Seattle is LUCKY - maybe in the next two decades they can be in the position the Rangers are right now.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Logan

The last time you responded to me, you said that Texas wouldn't get out of the first round. So I'm guessing you really didn't miss my intelligence.

I believe the comment was come talk to me when the Rangers dont make it out of the first round and Smoak isnt a 5 time all star. Since the latter is TBD you are selectively choosing what I said.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by molson

The Rangers are doing exactly what you trade away prospects to do. This is it. This is as good as it gets. Justin Smoak doesn't exactly guarantee multiple world series championship for the Mariners. If Seattle is LUCKY - maybe in the next two decades they can be in the position the Rangers are right now.

This is where I believe I disagree with some of you.

I've seen the Twins make the playoffs something like 6 out of 10 years and always come up short. I dont think Id trade their model of consistency to try and throw it all out there on one season to try and win it all.

IMO it seemed like the Rangers gave up a lot but most of you seem to think the Rangers system is just fine without these prospects.

I remember in the mid 90s when the Twins were terrible every single year and I dont want them trading away their prospects and end up like that again.

Maybe I am falsely comparing the Rangers organization to the Twins organization.

[spleen1015]

Would you rather make the playoffs 10 years in a row and never make it out of the ALDS or win 1 WS in those 10 years?

[AENeuman]

It's funny how winning is the determining factor to the trade. It seems to me for the rangers management making money is the key factor.

Win or lose the rangers are going to make a lot of money off this trade. From playoff revenue to increase in season ticket sales. maybe even enough to purchase or sign once out of reach players (Lee).

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Logan

The last time you responded to me, you said that Texas wouldn't get out of the first round. So I'm guessing you really didn't miss my intelligence.

Of course they do. And that's why last night essentially sealed it as a good move by the Rangers.

Look, you didn't think they'd get by Tampa WITH Cliff Lee. Guess what, not only did they get through them, they got through them BECAUSE of Cliff Lee.

Then last night, in a pressure situation in NY, the Rangers called on Lee to take the lead in the series. Everyone knows that last night was far more important for the Rangers than the Yankees. The Rangers lose the game with Cliff Lee, they somehow have to take 2 of 3 just to get to him again. (or throw him on short rest again in NY)

Lee came through. You make trades in baseball to give yourself a CHANCE of winning. Even seven game series are crapshoots in the playoffs. I don't understand how people who are fans of the game can't see this. If you play the Yankees/Twins series 100 times, the Twins are going to win 30% to 40% of those times. If the Rangers somehow win the series, game three will be looked at as the key game. That game turned on ONE single mistake pitch. What the Rangers did by getting Lee made last nights game go from a 35 to 40 percent chance to win to a 50 to 55 percent chance to win. As great as Lee pitched, a mistake slider from Pettite was the reason the game turned out the way it did. A single pitch.

Anyone who claims they make a deal to ENSURE a WS title is an idiot. You make moves to put yourself in the best place to win WS titles. I'd be making the same point had the Rangers lost 1-0 last night. He gave them their best shot to win.

That doesn't mean you give away all stars for middle relievers. It doesn't mean you sacrifice your future for a chance to win all of the time. But when the right deal comes along (in this case an ace with post season success and a team with a loaded farm system) you make the move to give you a chance.

Simply put, the Rangers made the right move.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by HiFiRevival

I do know of one potential suitor out there that could keep them from getting two #1s. Apparently the Nationals are going to offer 5/125 to Lee and try to steal him from everyone else.

I'm certain the Nationals will be able to keep him away from the Yankees.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Would you rather make the playoffs 10 years in a row and never make it out of the ALDS or win 1 WS in those 10 years?

Id rather win the World Series in 1 of those years.

Now if you change the question to

Would you rather make the playoffs 10 straight years or put yourself in the best postion to win the world series 1 year but risk falling to the bottom of the league Id choose option #1. Baseball is such an odd game that the best team(record wise) doesnt normally win the World Series.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

The next time the Yankees get outbid for a player they covet will be the first. Teixeira redux.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by HiFiRevival

You do realize you lost this argument 10 weeks ago, right? You're an idiot. You don't understand the basic point of sports is to win the last game played in a season and there is no better SP to try and do that with than Cliff Lee.

Let's see Smoak get his MLB OPS over .700 before crowning him the jewel of this trade.

Does anyone ever respond to you other than me? Perhaps I should follow the lead and add you to my ignore list.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by AENeuman

It's funny how winning is the determining factor to the trade. It seems to me for the rangers management making money is the key factor.

Win or lose the rangers are going to make a lot of money off this trade. From playoff revenue to increase in season ticket sales. maybe even enough to purchase or sign once out of reach players (Lee).

Good point as long as it doesnt effect their long term income goals by giving away cheaper prospects that will need to be replaced with higher income players.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by HiFiRevival

25m per may do it. If not, the other thing kicking around is a deal to bring in Greinke. The goal is to have an ace in place while Jordan Zimmermann matures and Strasburg recovers.

There is ZERO chance the Yankees get outbid on Cliff Lee. If they want him he will be there.

[kingfc22]

Looks like Rowand in CF, Uribe at 3B and Renteria leading off and playing SS.

Cody Ross has been moved up to the 5 spot.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Good point as long as it doesnt effect their long term income goals by giving away cheaper prospects that will need to be replaced with higher income players.

Right. But not all prospects pan out. Look at the Angels over the past decade. They probably would be in much better shape if they had traded many of their "can't miss" prospects for actually good players.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Wow, I've never seen a Nationals blind homer before. I guess this means you guys have made it.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

This is where I believe I disagree with some of you.

I've seen the Twins make the playoffs something like 6 out of 10 years and always come up short. I dont think Id trade their model of consistency to try and throw it all out there on one season to try and win it all.

IMO it seemed like the Rangers gave up a lot but most of you seem to think the Rangers system is just fine without these prospects.

I remember in the mid 90s when the Twins were terrible every single year and I dont want them trading away their prospects and end up like that again.

Maybe I am falsely comparing the Rangers organization to the Twins organization.

I love the Twins. I remember the mid 90's vividly. I also remember many of their A+ prospects they refused to trade. These included Todd Walker, David McCarty, Latroy Hawkins, Rich Becker, Javier Valentin, Pat Mahomes, Paul Russo, Rich Garces, Willie Banks and Derek Parks.

They weren't losing because they traded away top prospects, they were losing because they were drafting like garbage. Part of the reason giving up Hicks would have hurt is because the Twins farm system is nothing more than average right now. The Rangers? They have the top system in all of baseball. That pitching staff with the 10th best ERA in baseball this year? 8 guys haven't hit their 30th birthday yet. 4 guys haven't hit their 25th birthday yet. And they still have a crapload of pitchers they haven't called up yet.

This is a team that can afford to take a calculated risk. The Twins team you are comparing them to cannot. Different situations, different decisions.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by HiFiRevival

The Nats offered more money on Texeira. I fully expect Cliff Lee in NY, but if he says the most money is where he's going then there's a chance it's DC. Would definitely be an amazing offseason story.

Totally different scenario.

The Yanks didn't really need Tex, they had plenty of bats in their lineup. A front line starter to go along with CC is a much bigger commodity, especially when you factor in they are being forced to start AJ Burnett in a must win game tonight.

And if the 'yanks don't win the World Series any remote chance another team has to sign him will really be out the window.

[spleen1015]

Is it too much to hope that Lee will turn down the Yankees?

"Sorry dudes. I like kicking your ass!"

Man, I hate the Yankees.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Right. But not all prospects pan out. Look at the Angels over the past decade. They probably would be in much better shape if they had traded many of their "can't miss" prospects for actually good players.

True. The flip side of that, the last decade was fun to be an Angels fan.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Is it too much to hope that Lee will turn down the Yankees?

"Sorry dudes. I like kicking your ass!"

Man, I hate the Yankees.

It's what I think virtually everyone wants. The problem, of course, is to do that he'll have to take less money because there is no doubt the Yankees will put on a full court press and offer the most. They've wanted him for a long time.

I hope Cliff Lee chooses to stay in Texas. I hope they Yankees go bankrupt and are forced to build their team like the Royals or Pirates. I have hopes for the first part at least. I'll convince myself Lee isn't going there til I see the official word that he is. Then I'll cry a little. I like cheering for Cliff Lee. It'll suck to cheer against him.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

I'm not saying the Angels are bad - they're one of the best run franchises in the league. But if they had cashed out on McPherson, Kotchman, Kendrick, Wood - they could have conceivably had more banners to hang.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by TroyF

I love the Twins. I remember the mid 90's vividly. I also remember many of their A+ prospects they refused to trade. These included Todd Walker, David McCarty, Latroy Hawkins, Rich Becker, Javier Valentin, Pat Mahomes, Paul Russo, Rich Garces, Willie Banks and Derek Parks.

They weren't losing because they traded away top prospects, they were losing because they were drafting like garbage. Part of the reason giving up Hicks would have hurt is because the Twins farm system is nothing more than average right now. The Rangers? They have the top system in all of baseball. That pitching staff with the 10th best ERA in baseball this year? 8 guys haven't hit their 30th birthday yet. 4 guys haven't hit their 25th birthday yet. And they still have a crapload of pitchers they haven't called up yet.

This is a team that can afford to take a calculated risk. The Twins team you are comparing them to cannot. Different situations, different decisions.

Wow, great memory I hadnt heard some of them names in ages.

Id like to add along with drafting garbage they tended to trade all of their good players(Scott Erickson, Rick Aguilera, Kevin Tapani, and eventually Chuck Knobluach) because Pohlad was too cheap to pay them.

Yes its true they cant get rid of any of their prospects now but they werent doing it even when they had a more loaded minor leagues system 4-5 years ago. They've had decent bargaining chips in the past 4-5 years. Teams were wanting Slowey, Liriano, and Garza before they made the show and the twins refused to trade the future for rentals.

[molson]

Originally Posted by TroyF

These included Todd Walker, David McCarty, Latroy Hawkins, Rich Becker, Javier Valentin, Pat Mahomes, Paul Russo, Rich Garces, Willie Banks and Derek Parks.

David McCarty did have a bunch of strikeouts for the Red Sox a few years back in their utility player/novelty mop-up pitcher role.

And McCarty was once the 3rd overall pick in the draft. And Lee was drafted in the 8th round. As much as the playoffs are a crapshoot, the development of prospects is even more of a crapshoot.

You need to have a good organizational system that drafts and develops talent on the whole, but any individual prospect is more likely to fail than not. I think they're overvalued, just like draft picks in the NFL.

I think we just forget the prospects that missed and we're seduced by potential. Every team has countless prospect washouts. I remember former Red Sox 1st-round pick Kevin Morton pitching a complete game shutout in his first start. He never got out of the minors again after that season though.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

The next time the Yankees get outbid for a player they covet will be the first. Teixeira redux.

Originally Posted by Lathum

There is ZERO chance the Yankees get outbid on Cliff Lee. If they want him he will be there.

Well, it does seem that the Rangers outbid the Yankees to get him at the trade deadline.

[MikeVic]

Was Rich Garces that fat guy? Went to Boston after or something?

[McSweeny]

Originally Posted by HiFiRevival

The Nats offered more money on Texeira.

I'd like to see a source for this.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by McSweeny

I'd like to see a source for this.

They did - it was pretty widely reported. But it was like $5M more, and Boras pointed it out when he said Tex didn't want to go to the Nats.