cartman's FOFC Top 25 poll, Week 8 open for voting

[cartman]

Another weekend in the books! Time to open up voting for this week's poll. Submissions are due by the kickoff of the Rice-Houston game on Thursday, Oct. 27th. Here is how last week's poll fared:

Team			Rec.	Weekend Result
1. LSU 			8-0	beat #23 Auburn 45-10
2. Alabama 		8-0	beat Tennessee 37-6
3. Oklahoma 		6-1	lost to Texas Tech 41-38
4. Boise State 		7-0	beat Air Force 37-26
5. Oklahoma State	7-0	beat Missouri 45-24
6. Wisconsin 		6-1	lost to #17 Michigan State 37-31
7. Stanford		7-0	beat #21 Washington 65-21
8. Clemson		8-0	beat North Carolina 59-38
9. Oregon		6-1	beat Colorado 45-2
10. Kansas State	7-0	beat Kansas 59-21
11. Virginia Tech	7-1	beat Boston College 30-14
12. Arkansas		6-1	beat Mississippi 29-24
13. Nebraska		6-1	beat Minnesota 41-14
14. West Virginia	5-2	lost to Syracuse 49-23
15. South Carolina	6-1	Bye
16. Michigan		6-1	Bye	
17. Michigan State	6-1	beat #6 Wisconsin 37-31
18. Houston		7-0	beat Marshall 63-28
19. Texas A&M		5-2	beat Iowa State 33-17
20. Georgia Tech	6-2	lost to Miami(FL) 24-7
T21. Washington		5-2	lost to #7 Stanford 65-21
T21. Penn State		7-1	beat Northwestern 34-24
23. Auburn		5-3	lost to #1 LSU 45-10
24. Illinois		6-2	lost to Purdue 21-14
25. Notre Dame		4-3	lost to USC 31-17

For reference, here is last week's voting thread: cartman's FOFC College Football Top 25, Week 7 open for voting - Front Office Football Central

[Suicane75]

1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Stanford
4. Oklahoma State
5. Clemson
6. Boise State
7. Oregon
8. Kansas State
9. Michigan State
10. Nebraska
11. Oklahoma
12. Wisconsin
13. Arkansas
14. South Carolina
15. Cincinnati
16. Virginia Tech
17. Michigan
18. Houston
19. Penn State
20. Texas Tech
21. USC
22. Arizona State
23. Syracuse
24. Texas A&M
25. Georgia

[Young Drachma]

1 Alabama
2 Oklahoma State
3 Stanford
4 LSU
5 Boise State
6 Clemson
7 Kansas State
8 Houston
9 Oklahoma
10 Michigan
11 USC
12 South Carolina
13 Penn State
14 Virginia Tech
15 Nebraska
16 Arkansas
17 Oregon
18 Wisconsin
19 Michigan State
20 Cincinnati
21 Southern Mississippi
22 Texas A&M
23 Texas
24 Georgia Tech
25 Illinois

[Galaxy]

1) LSU
2) Alabama
3) Oklahoma State
4) Stanford
5) Boise State
6) Clemson
7) Oregon
8) Kansas State
9) Arkansas
10) Michigan State
11) Oklahoma
12) Wisconsin
13) South Carolina
14) Virginia Tech
15) Nebraska
16) Michigan
17) Houston
18) Penn State
19) Texas A&M
20) Texas Tech
21) Cincinnati
22) USC
23) Arizona State
24) Texas
25) Georgia

[JonInMiddleGA]

from Jon's Three Cents | Because two cents worth isn't always enough

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Stanford
4. Oklahoma State
5. Boise State
6. Oregon
7. Clemson
8. Arkansas
9. Virginia Tech
10. Michigan State
11. Oklahoma
12. Nebraska
13. Wisconsin
14. South Carolina
15. Kansas State
16. Houston
17. Michigan
18. Texas A&M
19. Penn State
20. Texas Tech
21. Arizona State
22. USC
23. TCU
24. Syracuse
25. West Virginia

[britrock88]

1. Alabama
2. Boise State
3. Louisiana State
4. Oklahoma State
5. Stanford
6. Oklahoma
7. Texas A&M
8. Wisconsin
9. Oregon
10. Michigan
11. Clemson
12. Arizona State
13. Notre Dame
14. Nebraska
15. Virginia Tech
16. Penn State
17. South Carolina
18. Miami-Florida
19. Toledo
20. Georgia
21. Michigan State
22. Texas Christian
23. Southern California
24. Florida State
25. Southern Methodist

[MacroGuru]

1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Stanford
4. Oklahoma State
5. Clemson
6. Boise State
7. Kansas State
8. Houston
9. Oregon
10. Michigan State
11. Wisconsin
12. Arkansas
13. South Carolina
14. Nebraska
15. Virginia Tech
16. Oklahoma
17. Michigan
18. Penn State
19. USC
20. Southern Mississippi
21. Cincinnati
22. Texas A&M
23. Texas tech
24. Washington
25. Arizona State

[jbergey22]

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Oklahoma St
4. Stanford
5. Boise St
6. Clemson
7. Oregon
8. Kansas St
9. Michigan St
10. Wisconsin
11. Arkansas
12. Oklahoma
13. Virginia Tech
14. Nebraska
15. Texas A&M
16. Penn St
17. South Carolina
18. Michigan
19. Houston
20. Georgia
21. Arizona St
22. USC
23. Cincinnati
24. Texas Tech
25. Toledo

[duckman]

1. Louisiana State
2. Alabama
3. Stanford
4. Oklahoma State
5. Clemson
6. Boise State
7. Kansas State
8. Oregon
9. Oklahoma
10. Arkansas
11. Wisconsin
12. Virginia Tech
13. South Carolina
14. Michigan State
15. Nebraska
16. Michigan
17. Texas A&M
18. Southern California
19. Georgia
20. Penn State
21. Georgia Tech
22. Arizona State
23. West Virginia
24. Houston
25. Cincinnati

[General Mike]

1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Stanford
4. Boise State
5. Oklahoma State
6. Clemson
7. Arkansas
8. Oregon
9. Kansas State
10. Oklahoma
11. South Carolina
12. Nebraska
13. Virginia Tech
14. Michigan State
15. Wisconsin
16. Penn State
17. Houston
18. Michigan
19. Cincinnati
20. Texas A&M
21. USC
22. Georgia
23. West Virginia
24. Southern Miss
25. Wake Forest

[tarcone]

1. LSU
2. Stanford
3. Alabama
4. Oklahoma St.
5. Boise St.
6. Clemson
7. Kansas St.
8. Oregon
9. Virginia Tech
10. Arkansas
11. Oklahoma
12. Michigan St.
13. Wisconsin
14. South Carolina
15. Nebraska
16. Houston
17. Penn St.
18. Michigan
19. Cincinnati
20. Arizona St.
21. Texas A&M
22. USC
23. Georgia
24. West Virginia
25. Texas Tech

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by britrock88

1. Alabama
2. Boise State
3. Louisiana State
4. Oklahoma State
5. Stanford
6. Oklahoma
7. Texas A&M
8. Wisconsin
9. Oregon
10. Michigan
11. Clemson
12. Arizona State
13. Notre Dame
14. Nebraska
15. Virginia Tech
16. Penn State
17. South Carolina
18. Miami-Florida
19. Toledo
20. Georgia
21. Michigan State
22. Texas Christian
23. Southern California
24. Florida State
25. Southern Methodist

How is Notre Dame No. 13? They're 4-3. Toledo, a MAC team, is No. 19 with a 5-3 record?

[cartman]

Here's the Top 25 from Solecismic's Football Frontier:

1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Boise State
4. Oklahoma
5. Stanford
6. Kansas State
7. Oklahoma State
8. Oregon
9. Virginia Tech
10. USC
11. South Carolina
12. Michigan
13. Texas A&M
14. Clemson
15. Michigan State
16. Wisconsin
17. Houston
18. Penn State
19. Georgia
20. Texas
21. Nebraska
22. Arkansas
23. Illinois
24. Texas Tech
25. Cincinnati

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

How is Notre Dame No. 13? They're 4-3. Toledo, a MAC team, is No. 19 with a 5-3 record?

An MOV poll punishes losses only based on the actual margin of the loss. So a 3-point loss to #47 USF and a 4-point loss to #10 Michigan really don't hurt ND much, and the 14-point loss to #23 USC was mitigated by the boost USC gave to ND's 6th-ranked strength of schedule. The big win over Michigan State is ND's single best game, contributing to almost one-third of ND's index.

The same applies to Toledo. A 5-point loss to #28 Ohio State doesn't hurt much. Boise State is so good that getting creamed by them comes out as a wash. And the tight loss to Syracuse is only a minor dent. Beyond that, Toledo has been crushing the MAC, including its second-best team, #35 Temple. And while Temple's SOS is weak (103rd), the criterion that counts toward Toledo's SOS is Temple's average margin of victory, which is very high.

[MJ4H]

I've been holding my tongue on that poll every week. I like how Arkansas (top 10 BCS) is unranked but a team they beat is #7 with a worse record. At some point, is it worthwhile to include nearly randomly selected poll orders?

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by MJ4H

nearly randomly selected poll order

Is it Alabama-Boise-LSU-OK State-Stanford at the top that grinds your gourd?

[MJ4H]

No, I mentioned the part that bugs me in my post.

[britrock88]

BCS computers and this ranking are, in a sense, diametrically opposing. The BCS forbids the computers from using margin of victory, and the ranking I run only uses margin of victory, even in calculating the strength of a team's opponents. I feel like it's more informative to know that Arkansas beat Texas A&M by 4 than simply that Arkansas beat Texas A&M. So that victory doesn't help Arkansas as much in the MOV ranking as it does the BCS computer rankings.

Turning that on its head, close losses against good teams are rewarded in my ranking. That's why Texas A&M is high despite two losses, and why Notre Dame and Toledo make appearances further down -- they've played good teams close, even if they haven't necessarily won almost all their games. Notre Dame hanging with Michigan is more impressive than beating Troy by 10 at home, to me and to the spreadsheet.

[MJ4H]

Honestly, that's horrible. And A&M being ranked 7th with a worse record and Arkansas being unranked with a better record and head to head victory and one loss (only to Alabama on the road) is all you need to look at to see it.

I mean, I understand that you have some logic behind it, but "some" logic isn't necessarily good or sound logic, as evidenced here.

And I've been holding my tongue because I don't want to clog up the thread with this, so I will bow out having said about all I care to on the subject.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by MJ4H

Honestly, that's horrible. And A&M being ranked 7th with a worse record and Arkansas being unranked with a better record and head to head victory and one loss (only to Alabama on the road) is all you need to look at to see it.

I mean, I understand that you have some logic behind it, but "some" logic isn't necessarily good or sound logic, as evidenced here.

And I've been holding my tongue because I don't want to clog up the thread with this, so I will bow out having said about all I care to on the subject.

If you think that's crazy, look at some of these at the end of the spectrum. Jim's always ranks pretty close to the median if not above it, but there are some wild ones on the far ends there.

Admittedly, mine hangs out on the end of the cliff. You can game your system to make it more closer to consensus but...what would be the fun in that?

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

If you think that's crazy, look at some of these at the end of the spectrum. Jim's always ranks pretty close to the median if not above it, but there are some wild ones on the far ends there.

Admittedly, mine hangs out on the end of the cliff. You can game your system to make it more closer to consensus but...what would be the fun in that?

How does any rational mind consider a 4-3 Notre Dame, who has only beaten one worthy team in Michigan State, a Top 25 team, never mind the No. 13 best team in the country?

[MJ4H]

It's unbiased guys (apparently so unbiased it doesn't even let the results of the games affect it!).

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

How does any rational mind consider a 4-3 Notre Dame, who has only beaten one worthy team in Michigan State, a Top 25 team, never mind the No. 13 best team in the country?

You can game the system to measure whatever you want. On the Massey rankings comparison their is a guy that has them at highest ranking of #9, there are two others computer rankings that have them at 10, one at 12, 13 and then it falls to 18 and then some in the 25-30 range after that. Most of those rankings don't use SoS or MoV but if he uses only MoV to produce his rankings then he's surely going to get wonky rankings if it's just wins + SoS and other measures like that. Which is why I haven't used it since the first year I started doing computer rankings.

Computers do odd things when you try to crunch these numbers. Jim's computer ranking has them at #29 and mine has them at #47. It's all about what you're trying to measure. If we had a playoff, it'd put a lot of nerds out of a hobby.

For what it's worth, there are weeks I look at my ranking's results and I'm mad about them because I don't like where teams end up. It's part of how I change them from year to year. Not to game them to meet muster, but more to match my own personal preferences of what makes a team work, etc. For instance, I don't like Strength of Schedule as an indicator really because I think it's skewed too heavily towards teams that are able to get rewarded by playing games against good schools. So I took it out. I don't like margin of victory because it's pretty much meaningless since the variables again can't be accounted for.

So I tend to just like to measure wins, rewarding teams for winning on the road and negating FCS wins entirely. Those are the primary components of my formula at the moment and so, it produces wonky results since wins don't necessarily get vetted for being less meaningful depending on the opposition.

[britrock88]

MOV is a more nuanced statistic than a crude W or L in a column, and to an extent, I think it's more informative. That said, I do zero out margins of a FG or less (since those outcomes are chance-dependent, IMO), and cap MOV at 16 as a stab at preventing runaway scores from skewing the output. I base SOS on MOV because it's easy to manage, and also because it avoids recursive functions that screw with Excel.

I can already think of tweaks that I'll incorporate next season, to factor for home field, overtime games, weighting of more recent games, etc. But I'm not perturbed by a "weird" result such as Notre Dame at 13 when the Top 12 (barring maybe Texas A&M) is entirely reasonable and much of the remainder of the poll is as well.

Rest assured that as Arkansas gets into the thick of its SEC schedule, it will rise so long as it wins or plays teams close, and that Notre Dame will continue to choke and begin its tumble. :-)

[MJ4H]

I think I'm done being concerned whether a given team shows up in that poll.

[CU Tiger]

While we are critiquing polls...

Originally Posted by cartman

Here's the Top 25 from Solecismic's Football Frontier:

9. Virginia Tech
11. South Carolina
14. Clemson

Ignoring the fact that SC has 1 loss to a team Clemson beat while Clemson is undefeatd, how does the poll make sense of the VT fiasco there. 27-3.....at VT..they played.
Whatevs

[Cuckoo]

1. Alabama (2)
2. LSU (3)
3. Stanford (4)
4. Oklahoma State (5)
5. Boise State (7)
6. Clemson (8)
7. Oregon (9)
8. Arkansas (10)
9. Oklahoma (1)
10. Virginia Tech (13)
11. Michigan State (14)
12. Wisconsin (6)
13. Nebraska (12)
14. Kansas State (15)
15. South Carolina (16)
16. Michigan (17)
17. Houston (18)
18. Texas A&M (19)
19. Penn State (23)
20. Arizona State (25)
21. USC (NR)
22. Texas Tech (NR)
23. Georgia (NR)
24. West Virginia (11)
25. Cincinnati (NR)

With last week's ranking. Dropped out: Auburn, Washington, Illinois, Georgia Tech

[cartman]

Bump to remind that submissions are due by this evening.

Here's my Top 25:

My Top 25:
1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Boise State
4. Oklahoma State
5. Stanford
6. Clemson
7. Oregon
8. Arkansas
9. Virginia Tech
10. Kansas State
11. Oklahoma
12. Michigan State
13. South Carolina
14. Wisconsin
15. Nebraska
16. Houston
17. Michigan
18. Penn State
19. Arizona State
20. USC
21. Texas Tech
22. Georgia
23. Georgia Tech
24. Texas
25. West Virginia