2012 MLB Thread (Cabrera Gets Triple Crown, first since Yaz 1967)

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

What is going on with him suddenly. He couldnt hit anything last year and the first part of this year. Now he is on fire. Did he change his swing or something?

Well, part of it is that I think the Pirates had a tough early season schedule (Philly, L.A., and San Francisco -- all have multiple elite starting pitchers) and faced a lot of aces in their first 10-15 games.

Part of it is probably just extreme sample sizes. He wasn't as bad as he was in the first part of the year (I think he started out something like 1 or 2 for 24) and isn't as good as he is now.

He still doesn't pass the look test for me. To my untrained eye, he looks uncomfortable at the plate far too often for someone who has been playing baseball as long as he has, misses and takes too many good pitches, and takes a few horrendous swings per game. He can crush breaking balls when he sees them, but I imagine he will quit seeing many pretty soon and it will be true sink or swim for him when he has to identify and learn to hit MLB fastballs.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Once again, it's not about predicting (if there's one thing I wish people would stop, it's this idea that sabermetrics has something to do with seeing the future). It's about explaining. Hence, the "story" - that's an attempt to explain what's already happened. Except 99% of the storytellers out there use forced narrative to explain things that can either be verified or shot down with advanced stats.

Baseball stats must be more powerful than all other scientific data put together if they aren't subject to interpretation or alternative narratives.

And also, while I get that the stats on their own don't predict the future, they're used that way all the time, often with great confidence based on the past performance as described by advanced stats (X trade/free agent signing is stupid because of what the advanced stats say, X guy is going to have a great next season with the Yankees and you're stupid if you try to account for the lifestyle change to NYC, etc....baseball prospectus puts out that book that is nothing but predictions based on on advanced stats.) I think it's fair to criticize their use as a predictive tool when they're constantly used, indirectly, as a predictive tool.....and obviously any attempt to predict needs to utilize advanced stats, but I think too often other more traditional scouting/psychology factors are shot down when making those predictions - which is the mirror image of your point to begin with (advanced stats don't predict the future.)

[jbergey22]

Prospectus even admits that their projections are just trying to show the players true talent level adjusted for park factors and a few other things. They admit to being conservative on their projections and fully understand that luck and other variables account for a huge part of a players complete results over a course of a year.

The Peavy example is clearly easy to identify because pitchers just cant sustain a .206 BABIP over the course of an entire season.

[Ksyrup]

I know they are used that way, but it's solely based on looking at the past and trying to determine whether that performance is sustainable, good or bad. Relative to looking at, say, RBIs and batting average, it is definitively a better predictive device. But I don't think it's developed to where it's the ideal predictive device.

And in this particular instance, the comment was about "telling a story" - which is necessarily about explaining what has already happened, not about the future.

[jbergey22]

The machine has forgotten how to hit temporarily. This isnt just a case of sample size and bad luck. He looks completely awful at the plate right now. His timing is off, he has been on his front foot far too often, and he appears to be reaching for fastballs outside to compensate for him trying to get around quicker on the inside pitches. Its hard to imagine him correcting all of these problems within the next 2 weeks.

I think the thick air of California is in his head. He doesnt trust his opposite field power right now.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Well, part of it is that I think the Pirates had a tough early season schedule (Philly, L.A., and San Francisco -- all have multiple elite starting pitchers) and faced a lot of aces in their first 10-15 games.

Part of it is probably just extreme sample sizes. He wasn't as bad as he was in the first part of the year (I think he started out something like 1 or 2 for 24) and isn't as good as he is now.

He still doesn't pass the look test for me. To my untrained eye, he looks uncomfortable at the plate far too often for someone who has been playing baseball as long as he has, misses and takes too many good pitches, and takes a few horrendous swings per game. He can crush breaking balls when he sees them, but I imagine he will quit seeing many pretty soon and it will be true sink or swim for him when he has to identify and learn to hit MLB fastballs.

Thank you for the summary. I always like to get perspective on why players like Alvarez and Chris Davis suddenly start hitting the ball.

[cody8200]

Bryan Lahair for the Cubs is looking like the real deal. At 29, this is the first full year in the Bigs (although he has been brought up for stretches in the past). .390/.471/.780 line. I would love to see him sustain a year of .280 with 30 HR's or so. After 10 years in the minors, it is one heck of a story.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by cody8200

Bryan Lahair for the Cubs is looking like the real deal. At 29, this is the first full year in the Bigs (although he has been brought up for stretches in the past). .390/.471/.780 line. I would love to see him sustain a year of .280 with 30 HR's or so. After 10 years in the minors, it is one heck of a story.

Hope it continues. That 10+ pitch 9th AB against Motte to tie the game the other night was very impressive to say the least. Not to mention the 8th inning game tieing home run vs the Phils.

[lungs]

K-Rod is definitely working his way up my shit list. It's bad enough he makes every appearance interesting. It's even worse when he actually blows them all the time now.

[Suicane75]

I'd agree that cautious optimism is the way to view Alvarez right now but he doesn't look....scared, might be the right word, anymore. It seems like he trust himself a little bit more.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Well, part of it is that I think the Pirates had a tough early season schedule (Philly, L.A., and San Francisco -- all have multiple elite starting pitchers) and faced a lot of aces in their first 10-15 games.

Part of it is probably just extreme sample sizes. He wasn't as bad as he was in the first part of the year (I think he started out something like 1 or 2 for 24) and isn't as good as he is now.

He still doesn't pass the look test for me. To my untrained eye, he looks uncomfortable at the plate far too often for someone who has been playing baseball as long as he has, misses and takes too many good pitches, and takes a few horrendous swings per game. He can crush breaking balls when he sees them, but I imagine he will quit seeing many pretty soon and it will be true sink or swim for him when he has to identify and learn to hit MLB fastballs.

The scary shit about Alvarez was that he actually reduced his K rate in 2011, vs his rookie year.

Hey, if he can keep hitting 7th and work this shit out...hit about .230 with 30 homers, we can win some games.

[Suicane75]

If Toronto can figure out their bullpen, they might be a legit contender. Encarnacion is just crushing the ball and that rotation is good enough. Kyle Drabek quietly put together a strong April looks somewhat closer to the stud prospect he was coming into last year than the dud he actually was last year.

[lungs]

Mat Gamel possibly done for the year.... His replacement? Travis Ishikawa. Gamel is no Prince Fielder, and unfortunately Travis Ishikawa is no Mat Gamel.

I'd hate to see what Plan C is.

[cody8200]

Originally Posted by lungs

Mat Gamel possibly done for the year.... His replacement? Travis Ishikawa. Gamel is no Prince Fielder, and unfortunately Travis Ishikawa is no Mat Gamel.

I'd hate to see what Plan C is.

Derrek Lee is out there

[Crapshoot]

Tyler Green at 3b and Ramirez at 1b would improve the defense as well, IMO.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by cody8200

Derrek Lee is out there

I know that he may have just been LOL-Pittsburgh, but we offered him 8M+ in arbitration and he said no.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Tyler Green at 3b and Ramirez at 1b would improve the defense as well, IMO.

That's the logical solution, but I have a feeling the Ron Roenicke solution will be some combination of Brooks Conrad/Travis Ishikawa/Corey Hart (with Aoki or Morgan playing right when Hart is at first)

[Crapshoot]

Oh Travis. A swing that's so pretty in theory, so awful in practice (as a Giants fan). At least he plays kick-ass defense at 1b.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Oh Travis. A swing that's so pretty in theory, so awful in practice (as a Giants fan). At least he plays kick-ass defense at 1b.

.251/.368/.383 line for a 28 year old first baseman in the PCL last year..... I questioned what he was even doing on the team in the first place.

[Crapshoot]

Yeah well, if you have a staff fully of right-handed groundball pitchers against a lefty-heavy team, you could squint your eyes and see a place for him....

[jbergey22]

At worst hes probably as good as Casey McGehee was for you last year.

[oykib]

Worst call of the year

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by oykib

Worst call of the year

Not seeing it.

{edit: Ahh, have to scroll to Hariston at first. Gotcha.}

{double edit: Now I can't get it to load on MLB. I wonder if they are taking it down?}

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by lungs

Mat Gamel possibly done for the year.... His replacement? Travis Ishikawa. Gamel is no Prince Fielder, and unfortunately Travis Ishikawa is no Mat Gamel.

I'd hate to see what Plan C is.

Perfect opportunity to put Braun back at 3B...

[cody8200]

Originally Posted by stevew

I know that he may have just been LOL-Pittsburgh, but we offered him 8M+ in arbitration and he said no.

Jeez. 8 mil? He must not be out there for the cash anymore is all I can think. No one else is going to pay him that much. I loved Lee when he was with the Cubs. He probably wants to get on a playoff team before calling it a career.

[lungs]

So the Brewers make friggin Jeff Suppan look like a major league pitcher.... Travis Ishikawa, speak of the devil, grounds into two double plays.

[tarcone]

I like it when the Cards play the Pirates.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by tarcone

I like it when the Cards play the Pirates.

Playing the Pirates like we should!

[lighthousekeeper]

wow bryce harper

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

wow bryce harper

He's got a sweet swing.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Once again, it's not about predicting (if there's one thing I wish people would stop, it's this idea that sabermetrics has something to do with seeing the future). It's about explaining. Hence, the "story" - that's an attempt to explain what's already happened. Except 99% of the storytellers out there use forced narrative to explain things that can either be verified or shot down with advanced stats.

Wait, so they can explain exactly what has happened and what is happening but they are not at all verifiable or predictive?

SI

[Comey]

The Phils/Braves game is absolutely crazy.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Comey

The Phils/Braves game is absolutely crazy.

Hansen vs Halladay.

I bet the under.

[jbergey22]

Chipper walkoff. Braves win. Not the score youd expect Halladay vs Hanson.

[larrymcg421]

It is going to be very hard to emotionally cope when Chipper finally hangs it up and the end of the season.

[tarcone]

Beltran had more RBIs tonight then Pujols has this season. Great move by the Cardinals.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Beltran had more RBIs tonight then Pujols has this season. Great move by the Cardinals.

Um it wasn't that the Cards decided to let him go, it's that they were outbid by the Halos. The Cards wanted to pay him a shitload, they just couldn't afford what Mickey Mouse was offering.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Beltran had more RBIs tonight then Pujols has this season. Great move by the Cardinals.

It's one of those moves that you just knew would work because it was the damn Cardinals

SI

[jbergey22]

I have this feeling the Cards are going to miss Albert come playoff time. You kind of need a guy like him in the playoffs when the pitching gets better and the hitters become tighter.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Um it wasn't that the Cards decided to let him go, it's that they were outbid by the Halos. The Cards wanted to pay him a shitload, they just couldn't afford what Mickey Mouse was offering.

and I say, "thank you" to the Angels.. I love Albert, but that contract is out of this world CRAZY!

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I have this feeling the Cards are going to miss Albert come playoff time. You kind of need a guy like him in the playoffs when the pitching gets better and the hitters become tighter.

Forget hitting, our pitching staff has been the talk of this town so far.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Um it wasn't that the Cards decided to let him go, it's that they were outbid by the Halos. The Cards wanted to pay him a shitload, they just couldn't afford what Mickey Mouse was offering.

Disney doesn't own the team anymore!

[Scoobz0202]

TURN IT TO THE ANGELS GAME IF YOU HAVE MLB.TV

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Scoobz0202

TURN IT TO THE ANGELS GAME IF YOU HAVE MLB.TV

On ESPN now too.

[Scoobz0202]

And Weaver no hits the Twins

[MizzouRah]

Good for Weaver!!!

[bhlloy]

Coulda had tickets to this game through work

Awesome for Weaver though, especially after taking a below market contract to stay with the team. Legend

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Scoobz0202

And Weaver no hits the Twins

More importantly, he WON his no-hitter this time!

[SirFozzie]

it was against the twins, whose bats have been so anemic as of late it should only count for a two hitter.

I'm kidding, before rabid Twins fans strike me down.

[MrBug708]

haha...Ruled Out