NFL Division Playoff Round Thread

[dubb93]

Comparing the Mannings in Super Bowl by looking at the box scores games brings me to one conclusion:

Brady played poorly in both of Eli's super bowl games. In one of them he was at 60% completion percentage on 49 passes and was just total garbage according to the box score(5.5 per), and the other one he played better, but he turned it over and his per attempt was significantly lower than the season.

That said Eli did outplay his brother in both games, but Drew Brees went nuts with a QBR of 88 and completed 32/39 in XLIV. Maybe we should be talking about his recent super bowl QB play rather than the other guys who didn't really do anything special.

[Lathum]

If someone wants to say they would take Brees over Eli I am all for that. But IMO there are a few guys I would take over Peyton at this point. Brees certainly is one of them.

[dubb93]

I have this question for you Lathum. Would you say Peyton played poorly against the Saints and that is why his team lost?

[dubb93]

Because if you have to pin it on one play it would have to be the interception he threw I would assume.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

If someone wants to say they would take Brees over Eli I am all for that. But IMO there are a few guys I would take over Peyton at this point. Brees certainly is one of them.

Maybe I am also not being clear. I would take Peyton over the course of his career. At this point in their careers, I would take Eli I think as Peyton does appear to have lost a lot of arm strength.

[dubb93]

But Peyton's QBR in that game was higher than Eli's has EVER been in a season. It was also higher than some of Peyton's own seasons, so according to that he didn't play poorly. He just didn't go superman like Brees did, yet they still have a chance to tie it up late until he tosses that pick 6.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I just don't get it.

Eli is 8-3 with many road wins in the playoffs. Peyton is 9-11 with many choke jobs.

Say all you want about the players around them, but twice at the very least Eli hasn't cost them games and made plenty of big plays on his own.

The regular season counts as well - players don't just magically show up in the playoffs. and taking this kind of W-L record is akin to saying Luis Sojo won 4 World Series rings, ergo he's better than Ken Griffey Jr. Eli may (may) be as good a QB now as Peyton, but even that is debatable - Peyton has been by far the better QB career wise, Super Bowl wins or not.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I have this question for you Lathum. Would you say Peyton played poorly against the Saints and that is why his team lost?

But that is the thing, there always seems to be one play. The guy is 2 games under .500 for his career in the post season. Is he a great regular season QB, no doubt, but the numbers in the playoffs speak for themselves.

84 games over .500 in the regular season, 2 under in the playoffs
8 of 12 seasons one and done in the playoffs, those 8 years 10 TDs and 4 Picks

The year they did win it he had 2 TDs and 6 Ints in the 3 games, unless the site I am looking at is wrong.

So tell me, what has he done that is so great in the post season?

By comparison, in Elis 2 title years he threw 15 TDs to 2 picks. again 15-2.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

The regular season counts as well - players don't just magically show up in the playoffs. and taking this kind of W-L record is akin to saying Luis Sojo won 4 World Series rings, ergo he's better than Ken Griffey Jr. Eli may (may) be as good a QB now as Peyton, but even that is debatable - Peyton has been by far the better QB career wise, Super Bowl wins or not.

That is a terrible analogy. You can't compare a utility player the the starting QB.

And I was never debating who was the better QB, I was saying I would take Eli over Peyton. Eli will never have the regular season stats of Peyton, but he is good enough most years to get there ans has now shown twice that he can get the job done.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Is he a great regular season QB, no doubt, but the numbers in the playoffs speak for themselves.

I can't find them the career post season stats, but heading into his stinker this year wasn't Peyton one of the top 10 rated post season QBs ever? Higher even than Eli and Brady? I believe someone mentioned it a few pages back. If someone can find those stats please link because I really do want to look at them.

[Lathum]

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/player/...peyton-manning

[Lathum]

Peyton -5679 yards, 32 TDs, 21 Ints, 88 rating, 9-11 record- 1 title

Eli- 2516 yards, 17 TDs, 8 INTs, 89 rating, 8-3- 2 titles

[Atocep]

Mark Sanchez - 60% 1155 yards, 9td, 3int, 94 rating, 4-2 playoff record

There are still at least 30 NFL quarterbacks I'd rather have starting a playoff game.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Mark Sanchez - 60% 1155 yards, 9td, 3int, 94 rating, 4-2 playoff record

There are still at least 30 NFL quarterbacks I'd rather have starting a playoff game.

I think we can limit the conversation to guys who have won titles.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Peyton -5679 yards, 32 TDs, 21 Ints, 88 rating, 9-11 record- 1 title

Eli- 2516 yards, 17 TDs, 8 INTs, 89 rating, 8-3- 2 titles

So basically the numbers are close to a stalemate other than the titles and record, and I can remember several games Peyton played...and lost that IMO weren't completely his fault.

You have the Vandershank kick game where the drunken kicker missed the FG so bad that I believe it was actually right on the endzone, the WR rape game that resulted in the current NFL passing rules, the Jets miracle KR/FG game, and the Champ Bailey meltdown game(too soon?) . And as I said Peyton didn't play bad in that Super Bowl loss either. But I guess his record is what it is, personally I would argue that Eli's team choke this year to miss the playoffs was equally as impressive as anything Peyton has ever done in the playoffs. But then you would just argue playoffs vs. regular season again like not making the playoffs is better than getting a bye and losing.

And as far as quality games go, looking at the stats all of Eli's losses you can firmly place the blame on him. In his three losses he is 0 TDs vs. 7 picks. That would make him 17 TDs against 1 pick in his victories. Hey, all or nothing with that guy, right?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

And as far as quality games go, looking at the stats all of Eli's losses you can firmly place the blame on him. In his three losses he is 0 TDs vs. 7 picks. That would make him 17 TDs against 1 pick in his victories. Hey, all or nothing with that guy, right?

I think just about anyone would take 2 stellar runs and 3 stinkers resulting in 2 titles.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think we can limit the conversation to guys who have won titles.

Why? Its 1 game - that's the problem with small sample sizes. You have a mancrush on Eli, fine - he's a great QB - but you can't chunk out the data you don't like.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Why? Its 1 game - that's the problem with small sample sizes. You have a mancrush on Eli, fine - he's a great QB - but you can't chunk out the data you don't like.

OK, I should have said I will take Peyton over anyone who hasn't won a title

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by dubb93

So basically the numbers are close to a stalemate other than the titles and record, and I can remember several games Peyton played...and lost that IMO weren't completely his fault.

You have the Vandershank kick game where the drunken kicker missed the FG so bad that I believe it was actually right on the endzone, the WR rape game that resulted in the current NFL passing rules, the Jets miracle KR/FG game, and the Champ Bailey meltdown game(too soon?) . And as I said Peyton didn't play bad in that Super Bowl loss either. But I guess his record is what it is, personally I would argue that Eli's team choke this year to miss the playoffs was equally as impressive as anything Peyton has ever done in the playoffs. But then you would just argue playoffs vs. regular season again like not making the playoffs is better than getting a bye and losing.

And as far as quality games go, looking at the stats all of Eli's losses you can firmly place the blame on him. In his three losses he is 0 TDs vs. 7 picks. That would make him 17 TDs against 1 pick in his victories. Hey, all or nothing with that guy, right?

I think the stats point to Peyton's performance dropping vs. his stellar regular season performance while Eli generally has more pedestrian regular season performance so the variance isn't particularly dramatic. Peyton hasn't been terrible in the playoffs, but he hasn't been his regular season level either.

You could argue that running a 100 career rating in the playoffs is nearly impossible, but I think that's the expectations people have for Peyton. He certainly isn't the worst QB in the playoffs out there.

[sterlingice]

Couldn't one also argue that the defense is better during the playoffs as you don't get to play 3-13 teams there?

SI

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by Lathum

and my love for Eli obviously clouds my opinion, but someone show me any numbers indicating Peyton is the obvious choice over Eli.

It would be easier for you to show the numbers indicating Eli is the better choice over Peyton. Other than 2 rings to 1, the proof doesn't exist. Peyton's numbers across the board put him into discussion of the top 3 or 5 best quarterbacks ever. Are you saying Eli is in that discussion?

I have nothing against Eli, he's a good quarterback. But if we're going to talk about postseason success, let's talk about the times the Giants didn't make the playoffs because of Eli. Peyton has more losses because he gets there.

[Carman Bulldog]

Despite the disappointment of Peyton's playoff performances, you can't use the 2 ring to 1 ring argument as your basis. Their overall bodies of work aren't even comparable. That's like taking Big Ben over Brees,or Brad Johnson (or Dilfer) over Marino, just because of the rings.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

Despite the disappointment of Peyton's playoff performances, you can't use the 2 ring to 1 ring argument as your basis. Their overall bodies of work aren't even comparable. That's like taking Big Ben over Brees,or Brad Johnson (or Dilfer) over Marino, just because of the rings.

You could certainly make the Big Ben over Brees argument. Dilfer and Marino is absurd. Every time this argument comes up people want to use Dilfer as an example.

We are all fans, can't we all just admit that was the one fluke in about 25 years where the QB wasn't at least well above average and won the title.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I just don't get it.

Eli is 8-3 with many road wins in the playoffs. Peyton is 9-11 with many choke jobs.

Say all you want about the players around them, but twice at the very least Eli hasn't cost them games and made plenty of big plays on his own.

Well, in one of those 8 wins, a guy made a hell of a catch on a ball that was over thrown by Eli and that play was pivotal in the victory. In another one, a player on the other team needed to give up the ball in key moments to help the Giants win.

You make it sound like Eli is the only reason they've won in the playoffs.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

You make it sound like Eli is the only reason they've won in the playoffs.

That's the only way this argument works IMO. Eli is the sole reason for every giants playoff win, and Peyton is the sole reason for every colts playoff loss. Even if that were true, I would still want Peyton as my QB. But its laughable.

[Lathum]

Have you ever watched the whole play where Tyree made the catch. Eli did an amazing job keeping that play alive. I'm not saying eli deserves any more credit than Amy other qb but we all know Qbs get more credit and blame than they deserve. Just the way it is.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

You could certainly make the Big Ben over Brees argument. Dilfer and Marino is absurd. Every time this argument comes up people want to use Dilfer as an example.

We are all fans, can't we all just admit that was the one fluke in about 25 years where the QB wasn't at least well above average and won the title.

It depends on what we're talking about. Well above average for career or for that season?

For careers I think it's safe to say Doug Williams, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Dilfer, and Brad Johnson weren't well above average.

For that specific season we could go Williams, Hostetler, Dilfer, and Brady ('01).

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

It depends on what we're talking about. Well above average for career or for that season?

For careers I think it's safe to say Doug Williams, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Dilfer, and Brad Johnson weren't well above average.

For that specific season we could go Williams, Hostetler, Dilfer, and Brady ('01).

You are going pretty far back with everyone except Johnson. I think we can all agree a title is rarely won by a team without an elite QB

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

You are going pretty far back with everyone except Johnson. I think we can all agree a title is rarely won by a team without an elite QB

Last year?


(ducks)

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

You are going pretty far back with everyone except Johnson. I think we can all agree a title is rarely won by a team without an elite QB

I went back 25 years because that's the timeline you gave.

The success of a team is clearly based on more than a quarterback though. It's obvious that quarterback is the most important position on the field, but when 20% of the time you don't need anything more than an average-ish QB it's safe to say putting everything on the quarterback is misguided.

[EagleFan]

Sadly, using the elite QB scale that would mean that New England can plan the parade.

[Atocep]

This discussion just doesn't make sense to me. There are too many variables to simply go off of raw numbers from a 20 game and 11 game sample size.

What were rules like? How good were the defenses the two quarterbacks faced? How is the supporting cast on offense? Was one QB asked to do more than the other? Any key injuries?

You can go on and on.

[sterlingice]

So let's say Atlanta or Baltimore win this year. Does that make Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco instantly much better quarterbacks? This is a pair of guys frequently in the talk for, I dunno, Top 10 but definitely not Top 5 QBs. Do we look at Flacco's big pass (with blown coverage) last week as a huge turning point in his career?

Or what if Houston wins against Minnesota a few weeks ago and rides home field to the Super Bowl? Does that suddenly make Matt Schaub elite?

Originally Posted by Lathum

Have you ever watched the whole play where Tyree made the catch. Eli did an amazing job keeping that play alive. I'm not saying eli deserves any more credit than Amy other qb but we all know Qbs get more credit and blame than they deserve. Just the way it is.

But it's not the way it is. You're just making it more that way and partially, I think, to prop up your own guy who also fits into that same "Top 10 but not Top 5 QB" level.

SI

[sabotai]

Kirby Puckett.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

So let's say Atlanta or Baltimore win this year. Does that make Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco instantly much better quarterbacks? This is a pair of guys frequently in the talk for, I dunno, Top 10 but definitely not Top 5 QBs. Do we look at Flacco's big pass (with blown coverage) last week as a huge turning point in his career?

Or what if Houston wins against Minnesota a few weeks ago and rides home field to the Super Bowl? Does that suddenly make Matt Schaub elite?



But it's not the way it is. You're just making it more that way and partially, I think, to prop up your own guy who also fits into that same "Top 10 but not Top 5 QB" level.

SI

"". Yup. Its silly and based more in having an answer first, and then trying to determine the question. If Rahim Moore plays better defense, that makes Peyton a better QB?

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

"". Yup. Its silly and based more in having an answer first, and then trying to determine the question. If Rahim Moore plays better defense, that makes Peyton a better QB?

What if a certain someone didn't have two returns. Does that make Peyton a worse QB?

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

What if a certain someone didn't have two returns. Does that make Peyton a worse QB?

Nope - which is why win-loss record is a silly metric in football, albeit not as idiotic as pitcher W-L in baseball.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think we can limit the conversation to guys who have won titles.

Maybe since it's a playoff thread we can limit the conversation to guys who haven't missed them 3 of the last 4 years.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Maybe since it's a playoff thread we can limit the conversation to guys who haven't missed them 3 of the last 4 years.

Anyone in this thread would sign up for 2 titles in 5 years if that meant missing the playoffs a few of those other seasons. And lets not forget the NFL is set up for the team that wins the title to have a harder time getting there next year.

Had Eli only made one run I can see my opinion being absurd, but 2 runs in 5 years playing the way he did is no fluke, and I'll take a guy that can do that. You want a guy who makes the playoffs every year but never wins go be a Ravens fan, I'll take the 2 titles.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Lathum

And lets not forget the NFL is set up for the team that wins the title to have a harder time getting there next year.

In what way? More primetime games? Lower draft pick? Because nothing else changes based on winning the Super Bowl. Who each of these teams will play next year was finalized at the end of the season, and I believe it's only 2 out of 16 games that are affected by your finish in the division.

You play:

- Every team in your division twice (6 games)
- Every team in a same conference division once (4 games)
- Every team in a division in the other conference once (4 games)
- One team each in the other two divisions in your conference based on your finish in the division (last 2 games)

And with the ups-and-downs, you never know if those last two will be easier or harder: for example, Indianapolis was a much easier game last year than it had been in other years.

So the difference is a minor 2 games. For example, New England's schedule, set in stone at the end of last year's regular season, was:

- Every AFC East team twice.
- Every AFC South team once.
- Every NFC West team once.
- Baltimore (AFC North champ) and Denver (AFC West champ)

They went 1-1 in the two games decided by division finish.

The schedule was much more punishing before they went to the 4 division setup and redid the schedules, where having a first place division finish affected more schedule game, but these days it's down to 2, and with the up-and-down nature of some teams it's not a guarantee they are more difficult games.

[Carman Bulldog]

Wow, I typically root against Peyton Manning, but this thread has now turned me into a defender of him.

If we were to replay the years 1998 - 2012 over ten times, I would estimate something along the following...

Colts - 3 Championships - Once
Colts - 2 Championships - Seven x
Colts - 1 Championship - Twice

Giants w/ Eli - 2 Championships - Once
Giants - 1 Championship - Four x
Giants - 0 Championships - Five x

Peyton's definitely underachieved and his performances are a huge part of that, but so is luck, much like Eli has been lucky to come away with 2 championships in his career despite having a similar career playoff QB Pct. and TD/Int ratio to Peyton and having a worse completion percentage, yards per attempt and average over 50 yards less per game.

If I had to put money on who would win more championships over the same time span (even if you shorten it to Eli's rookie year to present), I would put money on Peyton every time, as more often than not, he would win more titles.

[Logan]

I think your 80% estimate of two or more championships for Peyton in a 10 year span is comically high.

[spleen1015]

Hey Lathum, question for you.

Would you pick any of these below over Peyton Manning?

Bart Starr
Bob Griese
Roger Staubach
Jim Plunkett
John Elway
Ben Roethlisberger