LANNISTER (GoT) Thread

[bhlloy]

My thought is that the Renly and Stannis argument might be a ruse to weaken us more. I was approached by Brienne last night and told that if I fled and transferred them a sum of gold to prove my intentions, what happened to Gregor wouldn't happen to me. I wonder if the "argument" in thread wasn't for my benefit and the three really are united against us in private.

[hoopsguy]

If the three houses are dead set on eliminating us first, there isn't a whole lot we can do to stop them. We'll continue to get beat up on the Enemy of the Realm, we'll have three people raiding us, etc ...

Renly is the only one who I've had discussions with where the premise wasn't "bail on your king to join our house", so that is why I've been of the opinion that he is our best hope.

For what it is worth, there was some internal dissension in their bannerman's ranks on how to proceed yesterday. Early on Brienne appeared to be leaning towards Stannis, but they were quite upset about Gregor being executed. Look at the votes in the thread after that transpired - Brienne votes Stannis, Renly votes Stannis, Renly commits Loras to vote Stannis. So I do not believe that was strictly for show.

But with the extended day, and zero communication with our house today, I fear that the Baratheon's are mending their fences and all three houses will soon be coming for us.

[Zinto]

Loras Tyrell has finally contacted me. I am trying to negotiate an alliance between us and Renly.

[bhlloy]

Seems like our only hope, so offer what you need. Given what happens in the book/show, you should sell them that we'll go after Stannis and Melissandre again. I suspect that Melissandre may have sort of special ability that she can use against Renly and if that's something they haven't thought of, we should plant the seed.

I hope if we can stay in one piece until day 4 we'll still be in pretty good shape if we can ally with another house.

[hoopsguy]

So assuming that the enemy is going to try and push us around together, here is how I expect it would go down.

Stannis will declare war on us tomorrow, picking a coastal region. We will have to push back for a day, or else face his overwhelming number of ships. That would be a very difficult battle to win; we would have to push back to Day 5. We would then choose a non-coastal land, and all three of the enemies would descend on us like locusts.

So we need to get Renly, who is likely to have the largest army, to see that this is not an ideal scenario for him. In fact, this is likely where he gets betrayed by Robb Stark and Stannis, who will force him to expend more men while they sit back with trivial forces. Renly + Lannister battle, lose bannermen, and the soldier count gets to a level more in line with what Robb Stark and Stannis can manage for the next round of war.

Renly's option to mitigate this is to side with us on Day 5, help us route them on the field of battle, and we then begin taking the war to Robb/Stannis. That is what you must impress upon Ser Loras and we must confirm this with Renly tomorrow - assuming, of course, that the enemy does proceed with a coastal attack from Stannis.

Thoughts?

[hoopsguy]

So it would appear that the only people who can engage the Bank of Braavosare kings.

Joffrey, if we get to a point where this becomes untenable I'm not sure you need to be worried about the other houses getting an additional 100K to attack you if you were to default on the loan. But the 100K you borrow might be useful in ... well, many ways, but if the cause is lost, then taking a couple of men down with you?

[hoopsguy]

Also, I'm very interested to learn if there has been any progress in conversations with Ser Loras. From what I have observed from afar, the two of you have rarely been about at the same time. Which does not seem ideal for rapid communication and agreement ... the type I fear is happening with Renly and the other houses.

[hoopsguy]

If sufficient movement has not been made with Ser Loras, would one of you have a raven to send directly to Renly identifying the risks I outlined earlier this morning (post #155)? Sadly, I do not have any birds to let loose as I wasted mine in an effort to secure Roose Bolton.

[Zinto]

It moves but you are right it moves slowly. I am going to be in and out much of the day since I am doing odd jobs today. I will try to check in every hour though

[hoopsguy]

I suspect the real action begins on Day 4 - Stannis will declare coastal war at that time. At that point, the clock is ticking.

[Zinto]

Are you going to be around Hoops? I really did not want to do this but if you are do you want to go sup with Renly?

[hoopsguy]

I can, although I've got a couple of works calls that I need to address. I will be around for about the last 90 minutes of this day, hopefully able to give this quite a bit of attention.

We also need to find an alternative to me for enemy of the realm. I'm expecting the other three families to be pretty united against us from what I've seen so far.

Last note - anything you can tell me about the conversations with Ser Loras that I should know sitting down with Renly?

[hoopsguy]

If I'm to act as emissary to Renly, I hope that others have their actions in already.

I'll set out somewhere around 3:30 PM EST if I don't have word to abort.
I'll assume we can proceed with the communications, even though Chief will not be here to officially post in the main thread that our flags are flying in their lands.

[Zinto]

I never sent in the order sent in the order and since Renly just voted for you I want to make sure you think it is best to go there or if we should discuss other options

[hoopsguy]

No, I don't think there is any value in approaching Renly at this point. We need to change some minds between now and the battle on Day 5. Today is lost. I would rather take an action raiding lands or something along those lines.

[hoopsguy]

Added for future reference:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

It was brought to my attention that you don't have a cocnept of how large and small lands are, or what are coastal or inland. That seems rather silly to me, so here is that information.

These land rankings are based only on how they are overall producing gold and men, not ships (which not all lands produce). The lands are shown in alphabetical order in their groupings, so do not take the order I put them in as indicating a rank within that group.

The Lands in Blue are Coastal lands, and the Lands in Green are Inland only (unable to produce ships).

THE RICHEST LANDS

Casterly Rock, Highgarden, King's Landing, Riverrun, Storm's End, Winterfell

WEALTHY LANDS

Brightwater Keep, Dragonstone, The Dreadfort, Harrenhal

PRODUCTIVE LANDS

Blackhaven, Duskendale, The Karhold, Maidenpool

MODERATE LANDS

The Arbor, Crakehall, Summerhall, The Twins

POOREST LANDS

Clegane's Keep, Deepwood Motte, Fairhaven, Parchments, Cape Wrath

Seeing as how Robb Stark has no ships, I'm somewhat inclined to raid Stark coastal territories.

[hoopsguy]

Wondering if anyone is around for Memorial Day weekend. Was not a lot of conversation on Friday, even less since then.

[bhlloy]

I'm around, but doesn't feel like there's much I can be doing or contributing to be honest.

[Zinto]

I am back around. Sorry I wasn't on much Friday or the weekend. The ball is in your court though Grandfather.

[hoopsguy]

So the honor hit for having two enemies of the realm is pretty severe.

Is there any added value for Joffrey (and, by extension, House Lannister) for him to either disavow or release me rather than me fleeing?

Does either of those decisions impact the transfer of 50% money/men as a condition of departure?

I don't think we're going to be whole with both Jamie and I around at this point, barring steps to clear our name. Willing to put some time into brainstorming around this if either of you get here between now and deadline.

Absent that discussion, I'm probably going to flee and try to convince myself it has value both for me and for the Lannister family.

[Zinto]

It is probably for the best if you run away, as I am not sure what else you can do for us. I am probably going down with this sinking ship as that is probably the only way I do not loose my head in this game.

[Zinto]

And as long as I am in power I do not see anyone chopping off your head because then I would gain Casterly Rock

[hoopsguy]

Yep, if the penalty for keeping me is a 40% tax then I've got limited value despite having wealth, troops, ships, etc. One of the other factions will face this penalty shortly and I'll be interested to see how they manage the process.

If you are "going down with this sinking ship" then use the coin I provide you to hire an assassin and accelerate the decay of one of the other houses. I would be concerned about using the assassin against another king, but suspect that the chances for success would be quite high for bannermen.

Don't hit an enemy of realm bannerman; don't make life easier for those kings to regain honor.

[hoopsguy]

Also, in any conversations with Renly/Robb, remind them that they have no hope for a naval victory against Stannis without your aid.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Also, in any conversations with Renly/Robb, remind them that they have no hope for a naval victory against Stannis without your aid.

Thank you Grandfather, I have appreciated your council in this uphill battle.

[hoopsguy]

At this point, regretful as it may be, I believe that I must take my leave of House Lannister. We Lannisters always pay our debts, so I hope you are able to put the gold, men, and ships to good use.

Together or separately, we must find a way to restore the Lannister name in Westeros. For the time, it must be separately.

[Chief Rum]

Tywin Lanniser has fled!

He is no longer a member of House Lannister.

King Joffrey, you are without a Hand now and may select another from your bannermen.

[Zinto]

I will make Bhlloy/Jamie Lannister my hand.

[Chief Rum]

Jaime Lannister has left the Lannister camp on an unknown errand.

[Zinto]

My camp is lonely. Oh, so lonely.

[Julio Riddols]

woooooooooooooooooooooooooooo....

[Zinto]

I apologize that I never send a raven back. I will post more for you to see later!