Coin Toss Predictions

JPhillips · 07-23-2013, 10:20 AM

I thought this was fascinating.

Quote:

Jordi Brandts and colleagues got a group of [fourth-year finance] students to predict a sequence of five coin tosses, and then selected the best and the worst predictor. They then asked other subjects to bet on whether the best and worst predictor could predict another five coin tosses. The subjects were told that they would bet on the worst predictor from the first round, unless they paid to switch to the best predictor.

82% of subjects paid to make the switch.

But of course, there is no such thing as an ability to predict the toss of a coin. Most subjects, then, saw skill where there was only luck. And, what’s more, they were willing to spend good money to back this daft opinion.

Butter · 07-23-2013, 10:35 AM

Would've thought it would be 66% who would make the switch.

Ben E Lou · 07-23-2013, 10:41 AM

Most people have a low understanding of probability. If you flip a fair coin four times and get heads four time, it's shocking how many people think that by the "law of averages" the odds are much greater for tails on the fifth flip.

Logan · 07-23-2013, 10:43 AM

A bunch of fourth-year finance students...unreal. Should cross-reference this with the "higher education/college football will die" thread.

molson · 07-23-2013, 10:51 AM

The students were from the Autonomous University of Barcelona. I bet the results would be similar anywhere, but it would be interesting to see a comparison with different countries and schools. I wonder if some cultures or regions or schools put more faith into luck than others.

Lathum · 07-23-2013, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Most people have a low understanding of probability. If you flip a fair coin four times and get heads four time, it's shocking how many people think that by the "law of averages" the odds are much greater for tails on the fifth flip.

Casino revenues from roulette went way up once they started putting digital boards up showing the prior 20 spins because people assume if black hit 5 times in a row red is more likely to come up.

Ben E Lou · 07-23-2013, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Casino revenues from roulette went way up once they started putting digital boards up showing the prior 20 spins because people assume if black hit 5 times in a row red is more likely to come up.

heh

Abe Sargent · 07-23-2013, 10:57 AM

Actually Roulette works the opposite. Since a human throws the ball, they tend to throw with roughly the same strength over time, even when they try and mix it up. You'll find that they hit roughly the same spot on the wheel with a greater than normal chance, so if you see one spot where two or three adjacent numbers are being hit, bet it, and you may win alot.

I have never lost at a Roulette wheel in a Casino.

sooner333 · 07-23-2013, 11:06 AM

I feel like this could turn into another blackjack system thread.

Lathum · 07-23-2013, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Actually Roulette works the opposite. Since a human throws the ball, they tend to throw with roughly the same strength over time, even when they try and mix it up. You'll find that they hit roughly the same spot on the wheel with a greater than normal chance, so if you see one spot where two or three adjacent numbers are being hit, bet it, and you may win alot.

I have never lost at a Roulette wheel in a Casino.

I find this hard to believe, but ok.

Regardless, even if the ball is hitting the same area of the wheel, the colors alternate, so it is still 50/50 ( minus the zeros of course).

saldana · 07-23-2013, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sooner333

I feel like this could turn into another blackjack system thread.

great...now i have to go find that thread to amuse myself!!!!!

britrock88 · 07-23-2013, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Logan

A bunch of fourth-year finance students...unreal. Should cross-reference this with the "higher education/college football will die" thread.

Long live the liberal arts!

sterlingice · 07-23-2013, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sooner333

I feel like this could turn into another blackjack system thread.

For old times' sake:

Ping: Blackjack Players - Front Office Football Central

SI

Passacaglia · 07-23-2013, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Logan

A bunch of fourth-year finance students...unreal. Should cross-reference this with the "higher education/college football will die" thread.

I thought it said fourth-graders at first. Around that age, I had a teacher do an activity with us where we had to predict coin tosses, and we were told that anyone who was right over 60% of the time, or less than 40%, should go find out if they had ESP. Pretty crazy.

Passacaglia · 07-23-2013, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I find this hard to believe, but ok.

Regardless, even if the ball is hitting the same area of the wheel, the colors alternate, so it is still 50/50 ( minus the zeros of course).

I think he meant to bet those numbers, not those colors.

Abe Sargent · 07-23-2013, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I find this hard to believe, but ok.

Regardless, even if the ball is hitting the same area of the wheel, the colors alternate, so it is still 50/50 ( minus the zeros of course).

You bet the numbers, not the color.

QuikSand · 07-23-2013, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Actually Roulette works the opposite. Since a human throws the ball, they tend to throw with roughly the same strength over time, even when they try and mix it up. You'll find that they hit roughly the same spot on the wheel with a greater than normal chance, so if you see one spot where two or three adjacent numbers are being hit, bet it, and you may win alot.

I have done no research on this subject, and my initial opinion is purely my own here...

This is absurd.

Abe Sargent · 07-23-2013, 11:54 AM

I go to a Roulette Table, I observe for about ten minutes to observe streaks, and then I place bets in the area of the wheel being hit the most. Done it about ten or twelve times. Over the course of the gambling session, I have never lost money at the Wheel. I might at first, of course, but eventually, I make money (or break even).

Lathum · 07-23-2013, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

You bet the numbers, not the color.

I know what you meant. Just don't know how your comment fits into the context of the discussion.

Marc Vaughan · 07-23-2013, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I go to a Roulette Table, I observe for about ten minutes to observe streaks, and then I place bets in the area of the wheel being hit the most. Done it about ten or twelve times. Over the course of the gambling session, I have never lost money at the Wheel. I might at first, of course, but eventually, I make money (or break even).

I analyse football as part of my job and have friends who regularly bet on the outcome of matches.

With this expert statistical information and a fine mathematical brain - I routinely supplement my income with huge amounts of $$$$$$ by not placing bets on the outcome of events beyond my control and thus not throwing away money ...

Buccaneer · 07-23-2013, 12:20 PM

I have driven through Reno or Las Vegas each of the past five years and I always amuse myself being a spectator at the roulette tables and seeing the players watch the board as if it provides meaningful information.

KWhit · 07-23-2013, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I go to a Roulette Table, I observe for about ten minutes to observe streaks, and then I place bets in the area of the wheel being hit the most. Done it about ten or twelve times. Over the course of the gambling session, I have never lost money at the Wheel. I might at first, of course, but eventually, I make money (or break even).

Uh... Okay.

Passacaglia · 07-23-2013, 12:44 PM

Do the ball and the wheel even start out in the same position on every throw?

QuikSand · 07-23-2013, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Do the ball and the wheel even start out in the same position on every throw?

Absolutely not.

Lathum · 07-23-2013, 01:04 PM

They also change dealers every 20 minutes or so.

nilodor · 07-23-2013, 04:31 PM

Correct call for each coin toss, heads (H) or tails (T) Quiz - Sporcle Games & Trivia
See if you're a gifted predictor.

gstelmack · 07-23-2013, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nilodor

Correct call for each coin toss, heads (H) or tails (T) Quiz - Sporcle Games & Trivia
See if you're a gifted predictor.

I got exactly 50% correct.

I picked heads every time.

Marmel · 07-23-2013, 04:58 PM

37/60! I am going to the casino to play roulette tonight!

Fidatelo · 07-23-2013, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I got exactly 50% correct.

I picked heads every time.

I also got 30/60. What are the odds?!

Danny · 07-23-2013, 05:08 PM

31/60

JAG · 07-23-2013, 05:18 PM

22/60. I don't know how you guys do it, but clearly I need to pay money for your advanced techniques.

MIJB#19 · 07-23-2013, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I got exactly 50% correct.

I picked heads every time.

Better strategy than my H/T/H/T etc. strategy. I went only 28 of 60.

LastWhiteSoxFanStanding · 07-23-2013, 06:40 PM

I don't like that the game rushes you by only giving you 60 seconds. It doesn't give me time to properly strategize.

cody8200 · 07-23-2013, 08:15 PM

27/60

At one point I hit 12 of 14. Another point I hit 2 for 17.

miked · 07-23-2013, 08:23 PM

I'm in Vegas right now, if anyone wants to paypal me some money to test this Roulette theory, I'd be more than happy to document it.

KWhit · 07-24-2013, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I go to a Roulette Table, I observe for about ten minutes to observe streaks, and then I place bets in the area of the wheel being hit the most. Done it about ten or twelve times. Over the course of the gambling session, I have never lost money at the Wheel. I might at first, of course, but eventually, I make money (or break even).

It would seem to me that you must now be independently wealthy, correct? Because it sounds like your system is foolproof. Just ramp up the bet over time and bingo - never work again in your life.

DanGarion · 07-24-2013, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think he meant to bet those numbers, not those colors.

But if I bet those colors (red and black) I'm bound to win most the time! BOOYA! I'M IN THE MONEY!

07-23-2013, 10:35 AM	#2
Butter Coordinator Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Dayton, OH	Would've thought it would be 66% who would make the switch. __________________ My listening habits

07-23-2013, 10:41 AM	#3
Ben E Lou Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Greensboro, NC	Most people have a low understanding of probability. If you flip a fair coin four times and get heads four time, it's shocking how many people think that by the "law of averages" the odds are much greater for tails on the fifth flip. __________________ The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'!

07-23-2013, 10:57 AM	#8
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	Actually Roulette works the opposite. Since a human throws the ball, they tend to throw with roughly the same strength over time, even when they try and mix it up. You'll find that they hit roughly the same spot on the wheel with a greater than normal chance, so if you see one spot where two or three adjacent numbers are being hit, bet it, and you may win alot. I have never lost at a Roulette wheel in a Casino. __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent Last edited by Abe Sargent : 07-23-2013 at 10:57 AM.

07-23-2013, 11:54 AM	#18
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	I go to a Roulette Table, I observe for about ten minutes to observe streaks, and then I place bets in the area of the wheel being hit the most. Done it about ten or twelve times. Over the course of the gambling session, I have never lost money at the Wheel. I might at first, of course, but eventually, I make money (or break even). __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

07-23-2013, 04:58 PM	#28
Marmel Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Manchester, CT	37/60! I am going to the casino to play roulette tonight! __________________ 81-78 Cincinnati basketball writer P. Daugherty, "Connor Barwin playing several minutes against Syracuse is like kids with slingshots taking down Caesar's legions."

07-23-2013, 10:43 AM	#4
Logan Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: NYC	A bunch of fourth-year finance students...unreal. Should cross-reference this with the "higher education/college football will die" thread.

07-23-2013, 10:51 AM	#5
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	The students were from the Autonomous University of Barcelona. I bet the results would be similar anywhere, but it would be interesting to see a comparison with different countries and schools. I wonder if some cultures or regions or schools put more faith into luck than others.

07-23-2013, 11:06 AM	#9
sooner333 College Starter Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Norman, OK	I feel like this could turn into another blackjack system thread.

07-23-2013, 12:20 PM	#21
Buccaneer Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Colorado	I have driven through Reno or Las Vegas each of the past five years and I always amuse myself being a spectator at the roulette tables and seeing the players watch the board as if it provides meaningful information.

07-23-2013, 12:44 PM	#23
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Do the ball and the wheel even start out in the same position on every throw?

07-23-2013, 01:04 PM	#25
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	They also change dealers every 20 minutes or so.

07-23-2013, 04:31 PM	#26
nilodor College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: calgary, AB	Correct call for each coin toss, heads (H) or tails (T) Quiz - Sporcle Games & Trivia See if you're a gifted predictor.

07-23-2013, 05:08 PM	#30
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	31/60

07-23-2013, 05:18 PM	#31
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	22/60. I don't know how you guys do it, but clearly I need to pay money for your advanced techniques.

07-23-2013, 06:40 PM	#33
LastWhiteSoxFanStanding College Starter Join Date: Jun 2003	I don't like that the game rushes you by only giving you 60 seconds. It doesn't give me time to properly strategize.

07-23-2013, 08:15 PM	#34
cody8200 High School Varsity Join Date: Nov 2000	27/60 At one point I hit 12 of 14. Another point I hit 2 for 17.

07-23-2013, 08:23 PM	#35
miked College Starter Join Date: Jun 2001 Location: The Dirty	I'm in Vegas right now, if anyone wants to paypal me some money to test this Roulette theory, I'd be more than happy to document it. __________________ Commish of the United Baseball League (OOTP 6.5)

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