Looking For Auction Draft Hints

[albionmoonlight]

My office is having an auction draft on Wednesday evening. Standard scoring no keepers. Ten teams.

Two begs here. First, any good general auction strategies? I got my butt kicked in the league last season, and I think that a lot of it was not having a good plan going into the auctions. So . . . any good plans would be appreciated.

Second, I see a fair amount of variation when I google average auction value. Does anyone who has a better sense of auctions than I do have a good average value chart for 2013 that they can recommend? I'd love something other than the ESPN values to ground my sense of what is and is not good value for any given player.

Thanks.

[Raiders Army]

An auction draft to a regular draft is like chess is to checkers. It's so much more complicated. Value is all relative and you won't know what the going rate is until the first player is gotten.

1. If there are bots, nominate mid-tier players early so the bots' budgets are taken up. For example, Bell, McFadden, and Murray are good RBs to nominate since they probably can be gotten cheaper by humans. Tebow is not a good nominee since you'll be stuck with him.

2. About half to 2/3rds of your budget should be for 2-3 players. Don't be afraid to spend money. Someone will always have more money than you.

3. Don't bid on someone you don't want or bid an amount you wouldn't be willing to pay for someone. That being said, don't let someone go for below market price if you can help it.

4. Keep a record of who is trying to outbid you. You may be able to leverage a trade with them later on if they really wanted someone. Also, keep a record of who is nominating whom. If someone nominates people they don't bid on, then that's a serious tell.

5. Have fun but don't get caught up in emotions. If you have a plan stick to it but you need to adjust on the fly. It's a lot of fun, but keep your head about you.

[TRO]

Nominate your kicker and defense early. You should be able to win them for a buck. If not and you start a bidding war for seattle's defense, great, less budget for them.

[Lathum]

Don't be afraid to spend for a guy,the prices always seem high, but then you get stuck with a lot of money and mediocre talent. The worst is sittig there with a lot of money and no great players on the board.

Don't overbid for a QB. Someone is going to pay a lot for Brees, Rodgers, etc...and guys like Romo, Luck, etc...can be had for a lot more and you can invest that money into a better flex player, WR, etc...

[Julio Riddols]

I always try and nominate players I have little interest in that are still generally popular enough to get high bids. The more you drain your enemies, the better off you'll be in the end. Never nominate someone you actually want, otherwise people will catch on and see that you're bidding more for the guys you nominate, then they'll drive the price up on you.

Be careful driving up the price yourself. You better be sure the other guy is going to bid again if you're bidding just to artificially boost the price.

Be prepared to pay a premium for RB talent. The lack of depth at the RB position makes them extremely valuable in normal scoring.

The price difference between a Drew Brees and an Eli Manning is you'll usually pay about 300% more for Brees. You have to decide what value the QB spot holds for you. Sleepers (Vick, Palmer, Dalton) can generally be had for pretty cheap, and in a 10 team league I wouldn't be afraid to wait and be the last to pick up a QB. There are lots of viable fantasy QB's out there.

The K/DEF strategy above is one I haven't tried, but I can see how it might work. I tend to play defensive matchups through the year as much as possible, so I put very little into drafting a top flight D. Kicker is the same. You shouldn't have to spend more than a dollar for either, but if you value the spot highly and really believe in a team or a kicker, spending 3 or 4 bucks isn't terrible.

I tend to be extra thrifty in my auction drafts, and I wouldn't say I draft the safest teams as a result, but I generally feel as though I get good value on the guys I do grab.

Ultimately, it comes down to drafting a team you will be satisfied with. Don't be afraid to blow 30-40% of your funds on Adrian Peterson if you want to make sure you get him. Just be prepared to bargain hunt a bit elsewhere.

[Arles]

I've been in 3 this year and the best move is to make up "scenarios" with an excel sheet.

For instance if you have $200 in a 10 team with 7 bench and a flex, maybe do:

"Stars and scrubs"
QB - $5, RB1 - $50, RB2 - $45, WR1 - $40, WR2 - $25, TE - $5, Flex - $15
K, D - $1 each and bench = $13 for 7 spots

"Stud QB and Graham and depth elsewhere"
QB - $40, RB1 - $40, RB2 - $25, WR1 - $20, WR2 - $10, TE - $30, Flex - $10
K, D - $1 each and bench = $23 for 7 spots

"RB Heavy"
QB - $5, RB1 - $50, RB2 - $45, Flex RB - $40, WR1 - $20, WR2 - $20, TE - $5
K, D - $1 each and bench = $13 for 7 spots

Then, do some mock drafts targeting certain player groups based on the money. IE, maybe try to get 3 of the top 15 RBs in the RB Heavy one and see how you like your team.

The nice thing is if you make cells for each position with the above guidelines, as you go above or below each spot, you can have a sum at the bottom that recalcs so you know where you have to cut/increase.

[QuikSand]

The most important thing to understand is *your* auction, not auctions generally. Anchor values (especially if they are posted on the site hosting the event, if it's online) are powerful, but not meaningful in themselves.

Say the second player tossed out is RB Jamaal Charles. The bidding seems honest, three or four teams participating as he gets to 20,25,30... and then its down to two guys at 35, and it stops at 40. Now, you should use that information as a short-term anchor. If the next RB thrown out is Spiller, maybe you think the "fair market" should be 33-36? If it's Gore, maybe 20-25? When you have multiple bidders setting an honest price, you should use that information right away.

If there's a trend in these things, it's usually that among a series of fairly similar quantities... the first one tends to be the best value when it's said and done. Maybe this year it's the top four QB (Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Brady) -- some people are going to have a hard line drawn below that foursome. In at least half the auctions out there, the first of those four who gets called will end up being the cheapest. As the end of a grouping comes, some people who missed out on Brees at $41 will realize that they slavishly committed to "$40 for stud QB" and will realize their plan is coming apart if they don't get Manning, and they end up bidding him to $48, even if they had him rated below Brees. It happens a lot, understandably.

I don't believe in budgets, rigid plans, or anything like that. I just look for errors and trends, and try to take advantage.

[Suicane75]

Here's a hint, don't let two teams in your 12 team league nab the top 4 QB's. Otherwise you'll walk away feeling like you're effed before you even get your pants off.

Edit: Unless you're up for the challenge.

[Arles]

The problem if you don't have a plan is you can end up getting a bunch of "value" guys and no real stars. I have a friend who did a 10-team auction and got some great prices on guys (MJD, Vareen, D Richardson, Hakeem Nicks, Colston and Lacy for all well below "value"). The problem was he kept avoiding the big money guys and left with money unspent.

In a 10-team especially, you want to budget yourself 2-3 top tier guys. The best way is to have a list of 5-7 guys per spot and a limit that you set as a combo of prep and after the first few auctions. Then, if one of your guys is ending near that limit, pounce.

If you just do the "I'm looking for value" method in a 10-teamer, you may have the top 10 RBs, WRs and 5 QBs all gone and you are still sitting there with $200 because none were "values".

[spleen1015]

I agree with Arlie. You have to be willing to spend the extra money on the top tier guys or you end up with nothing, especially at RB.

I would avoid top tier QB and TEs. There is lots of depth at those positions.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

Here's a hint, don't let two teams in your 12 team league nab the top 4 QB's. Otherwise you'll walk away feeling like you're effed before you even get your pants off.

Edit: Unless you're up for the challenge.

Yeah, there's that, too. You counter, I believe, with quantity. That always beats out quality.

Ugh.

[albionmoonlight]

Thanks to all for the hints. I was able to use a lot of the advice on here. I went with an RB-heavy stars & scrubs approach.

QB M. Stafford
RB A. Peterson
RB J. Charles
WR D. Amendola
WR H. Nicks
TE J. Cook
FLEX M. Forte
D Patriots
K. G. Hartley

BENCH

T. Romo
E.J. Manuel
J. Bell
Lance Dunbar
Michael Floyd
Kenny Stills
Golden Tate

I am happy to have gotten above-average quality at the RB spots. I regret overpaying for Peterson. And I regret picking Romo and Stafford. They are basically the same guy, so one of them will always be sitting on the bench. And, while my league has some members willing to trade, I think that neither Stafford nor Romo are going to get me much of value back in a trade. Since I knew that I was planning to take a late flyer on EJ Manuel, I should have saved the Romo money and tried to get a better WR2.

Again, though, thanks so much for the help.

[QuikSand]

If that's a 12-team league, I like that team an awful lot.

[albionmoonlight]

10 team league, so it's not quite as good as all that.

[spleen1015]

Other than Nicks, I think you have a really good starting line up. I don't think you could draft that team in a regular draft league.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Other than Nicks, I think you have a really good starting line up. I don't think you could draft that team in a regular draft league.

Really solid team and if you get a healthy Nicks you have a top 10 receiver

[QuikSand]

I'll defend the Nicks pick for a team that didn't invest an anchor position in him. Why not? He has proven to at least sometimes be very good. He's in a contract year, if you believe in such things as motivators. And he appears to be healthy, which could be an angle toward a rebound from hobbled previous seasons. There are legitimate reasons to think this guy could end up being a pretty legitimate starting WR.

And... in a 10-team league, it's not like there won't be options. Golden Tate might have an 80-catch season in him, and if Nicks is bad or hurt or whatnot, you just slough him off and plug in Tate or whatever guy you pick up. That's the proper order of things at the WR position.

No problem here placing a modest bet on Nicks to have a good year. No, I'm not drafting him ahead of Larry Fitzgerald. But at the "right" spot in a draft/auction... sure, I'll take him on my team. (and have)

[albionmoonlight]

People kept nominating RBs early. And, after I saw the market set, like Quik noted, I made sure to get three good ones before there were only three good ones left, again like Q suggested.

Then, I had my WR budget set, with a running spreadsheet like Arles noted, and kept bidding on low-mid WRs that came up until I got two in my price range. That happened to be Amendola and Nicks. I wasn't really happy about Nicks, but neither was anyone else, so the price was right.

As for TE, my theory was to either get Graham or pay $1 for one. After I decided to focus on RBs, I knew I would not have the money for Graham, so I took a flyer on Cook. Someone has to catch balls in St. Louis, right? And, if it isn't him, then I'll just play waiver wire roulette.

[albionmoonlight]

Just wanted to brag and to thank everyone again. We are 8-0. Of course, a lot of it is luck--I could have engaged in the same strategy and ended up with Doug Martin and C.J. Spiller. But I will take it.

The WR thing is still a mess. After playing waiver-wire roulette with guys like Brian Hartline, I somehow still have Nicks and Amendola as my 1-2. Still, WR is such a crapshoot that I don't care that I have two flex guys as my starters.

Since I will make the playoffs, I went ahead and got the Bills, Titans, and Texans defenses. Which means that for as long as I survive in the fantasy playoffs, I will be starting the defense playing against the Jags.

[Julio Riddols]

Nice move on the defenses.