Scotland to vote on Independence next week

[Galaxy]

Scotland goes to the polls next week to vote on its independence from Britain. It will be very interesting if it passes.

[DaddyTorgo]

The polls are apparently narrowing (independence still lags), but I dunno...I just can't see it actually happening.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

The polls are apparently narrowing (independence still lags), but I dunno...I just can't see it actually happening.

Latest polls seem to have it in favor of independence by such a narrow margin.

[ColtCrazy]

Extremely interesting to watch what happens here.

[Buccaneer]

I didn't know about this until last week. Read quite a bit on it since then and was fascinated at all of the white papers and details that have to be worked out if it passes. My opinion is that it won't pass because the Yes never had good poll numbers even during SNP enthusiastic start of the proposal. It seems one of the big concerns is UK's seat on the UN Security Council.

[JPhillips]

The Tories and Labour sure aren't making the vote easy. Every time the leaders speak the polls slide a little toward independence.

[EagleFan]

Sportsdigs declared independence from Britain last week...

[Abe Sargent]

Scotland has the better position for independence. Wales has the better argument. That's who I'd like to see off-tether.

[bhlloy]

As a Welshman I really hope they don't go - a) because the UK really is stronger as a sum of it's parts and b) that would essentially doom Wales, Northern Ireland and the northern parts of England to 20 years of Tory government and probably leaving the EU within the next election cycle.

Out of interest Abe, why do you say that? Scotland at least has some heavy industry (shipyards) left and has oil. Wales is a net drain on the UK economy and as much as it pains me to say it, we'd be right at the bottom of the EU in terms of quality of living right from the go.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

As a Welshman I really hope they don't go - a) because the UK really is stronger as a sum of it's parts and b) that would essentially doom Wales, Northern Ireland and the northern parts of England to 20 years of Tory government and probably leaving the EU within the next election cycle.

Out of interest Abe, why do you say that? Scotland at least has some heavy industry (shipyards) left and has oil. Wales is a net drain on the UK economy and as much as it pains me to say it, we'd be right at the bottom of the EU in terms of quality of living right from the go.

Right, that's what I meant. Scotland has the economy, but Wales really deserves independence. My family has Welsh roots, and I have stories of subjugation from various English folks and companies. They don't have teh economy, but I love to see them off.

[Galaxy]

How much would this push down the British Pound's strength if Scotland leaves?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

As a Welshman I really hope they don't go - a) because the UK really is stronger as a sum of it's parts and b) that would essentially doom Wales, Northern Ireland and the northern parts of England to 20 years of Tory government and probably leaving the EU within the next election cycle.

Out of interest Abe, why do you say that? Scotland at least has some heavy industry (shipyards) left and has oil. Wales is a net drain on the UK economy and as much as it pains me to say it, we'd be right at the bottom of the EU in terms of quality of living right from the go.

You're a Welshman?

[bhlloy]

Yes, born and raised. Emigrated to the US 9 years ago

[sabotai]

Do you run like a Welschman?

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Yes, born and raised. Emigrated to the US 9 years ago

That's cool, I'm Welsh too but only in my father's ancestors kind of way.

[sabotai]

Ok, serious question. Do you speak Welsch?

[bhlloy]

I don't, and I wish I did. Even my dad is now learning (the language is experiencing a huge revival) but I don't think if have much use for it out here...

[Galaxy]

Interesting overview:

Scottish independence: how will Scotland separate from Great Britain - Telegraph

[bhlloy]

Not saying that's the most balanced read ever, but a good chunk of it is true and you have to wonder what the hell the average voter is thinking. An absolute disaster for the UK and most of all the Scots if it happens. Interested to know what Marc (or the other Brits) think

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Not saying that's the most balanced read ever, but a good chunk of it is true and you have to wonder what the hell the average voter is thinking. An absolute disaster for the UK and most of all the Scots if it happens. Interested to know what Marc (or the other Brits) think

It's sort of like if Illinois wanted to go it alone. Sure, they are a state with a solid economy and good infrastructure, but still, do they have enough to be their own nation? What would that actually take? Interesting questions, I'm sure.

[bbgunn]

Will it take a simple majority vote to achieve independence, or is a certain percentage of YES votes required? (This is the first I've heard of this news, by the way.)

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

It's sort of like if Illinois wanted to go it alone. Sure, they are a state with a solid economy and good infrastructure, but still, do they have enough to be their own nation? What would that actually take? Interesting questions, I'm sure.

Except Scotland arguably isn't even that - it has a limited amount of oil, and shipyards that hold and maintain the UK nuclear fleet (which the SNP apparently wants to get rid of ASAP), and it does OK with tourism, but other than that it's a welfare state that would be in massive debt and deficit from day one. It really would be more like West Virginia or New Jersey wanting to go it alone IMO, if we're talking states to compare with. There's less people and far less of a commerce base in Scotland than there is in Chicago, never mind the whole of Illinois.

Add that to the fact that they are very unlikely to be in the EU or NATO from day 1, they will likely be forced into a currency union that will allow the country they just split from to determine their currency value, I just don't see how this is supposed to work. This isn't a Kosovo or a state coming out of the communist bloc, this is a first world country that does quite well out of the institutions it currently resides in making a clean break and wanting to only keep the positive ramifications of independence. Nice ideal, but I don't see it ending well.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by bbgunn

Will it take a simple majority vote to achieve independence, or is a certain percentage of YES votes required? (This is the first I've heard of this news, by the way.)

Simple majority. It could well happen unless the Tories come out with some serious concessions in the next couple of weeks.

[Ryan S]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Not saying that's the most balanced read ever, but a good chunk of it is true and you have to wonder what the hell the average voter is thinking. An absolute disaster for the UK and most of all the Scots if it happens. Interested to know what Marc (or the other Brits) think

As a Scot, living in Scotland, I think it is a terrible idea. I am already looking for jobs south of the border in case the worst happens.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Not saying that's the most balanced read ever, but a good chunk of it is true and you have to wonder what the hell the average voter is thinking. An absolute disaster for the UK and most of all the Scots if it happens. Interested to know what Marc (or the other Brits) think

Reading it over...it seems like Scotland still wants to benefits and attachments of the UK without being part of it. I don't see the rest of the UK letting them have it both ways.

[mrtourette]

Yeah it won't be 'true' independence, but I think a lot of it is being sold on the emotional platform of it being independence. The rest of the UK will let them have it both ways...but not for free.

[CAsterling]

As an Englishman I hope they vote YES. Most people south of Yorkshire don't care about Scotland and based on the stereotypes that they have been subjected to via "The Sun" and other papers, they don't want to care about Scotland.

However there still seem to be so many issues that need to be clarified, not least the currency, North Sea Oil revenue, debt assumption from the UK, nuclear submarine bases, and Scotland's status in the EU.

Based purely on the lack of concrete knowledge I would vote No if I was taking part. Of course there could be a great job creation scheme if they rebuild Hadrian's wall to make a nice physical barrier after independence

[Marc Vaughan]

I hope they stay.

I think their leaving is ill thought out - Scotland already has many advantages over England which always sat 'badly' with me as an Englishman, they have more control over their governance and better provisions in many social areas for reasons never sufficiently clear to me as an Englishman (their student grants for instance are larger than for an English student etc.).

Yes Scotland has some Oil revenue - but that is somewhat naturally volatile in nature (and it isn't present to the extent that they can live like kings or anything) at some point that will dry up at which point their lack of general infrastructure and other industry is going to come home to roost.

I'm also intrigued as to exactly what will occur with the UK's debts - I'd have thought the decent thing would be for it to be split between both parties with Scotland saddling themselves with a percentage of it as appropriate for their size and what they're removing from the UK as a whole.

If it does come to pass then I really hope the rest of the UK stand up for themselves for once rather than feeling guilty for being 'bossy' ... let them sod off and fall flat on their faces, don't let them use the currency, withdraw the maintenance of the nuclear fleet (Southampton or another UK based port would be more than happy for the work) and sit back with a cup of tea.

PS - How would the US react to say Florida deciding they wanted to become an independent country? ... is there any provision for such a thing in the US setup?
A lot of Europe is following the Scottish situation with interest for this reason, there are various regions within European countries who have been wanting independence from the larger nation for many many years ...

[Marc Vaughan]

Incidentally I think the poll showing 'Yes' in the lead might actually have saved Scotland from leaving ... before that occurred I think many potential "No" voters were probably assuming there was no chance of Scotland voting to leave ... which would have meant a poorer turn out from them, but now its seen neck and neck I think it'll be a truer result in terms of domestic feeling regarding things.

[King of New York]

If the rest of the UK wants to hose Scotland, the best way to do it would be to let an independent Scotland continue to use the Pound, rather than forbid Scotland to use it. Paul Krugman made a good point in the NY Times the other day: if Scotland stays on the Pound, it will be using a currency whose value is much higher than a purely Scottish currency's value would be, and much higher than Scotland's underlying economy would warrant. It could wind up like Italy and Greece.

[Buccaneer]

Marc, as far as I know, only Texas can go back to being a separate republic. Apart from that, I don't recall whether the confederates secession was ever addressed by law since we (unionists) only saw those states as in rebellion and not seceding.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Marc, as far as I know, only Texas can go back to being a separate republic. Apart from that, I don't recall whether the confederates secession was ever addressed by law since we (unionists) only saw those states as in rebellion and not seceding.

Pretty sure the Texas thing was settled too, no?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Except Scotland arguably isn't even that - it has a limited amount of oil, and shipyards that hold and maintain the UK nuclear fleet (which the SNP apparently wants to get rid of ASAP), and it does OK with tourism, but other than that it's a welfare state that would be in massive debt and deficit from day one. It really would be more like West Virginia or New Jersey wanting to go it alone IMO, if we're talking states to compare with. There's less people and far less of a commerce base in Scotland than there is in Chicago, never mind the whole of Illinois.

State pride and all, but New Jersey gives much more of its money to the federal government than it takes back and shifts with Connecticut back and forth as to which is #1 and which is #2 in richest states per capita - so bad example.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

State pride and all, but New Jersey gives much more of its money to the federal government than it takes back and shifts with Connecticut back and forth as to which is #1 and which is #2 in richest states per capita - so bad example.

Quibble - CT is pretty squarely #1, MA is pretty squarely #2, and NJ is pretty squarely #3 (at least from 2007-2012). Although to be fair before 2007/2008 MA and NJ were swapping back and forth between #2 and #3 every couple years (NJ seems to have been clearly #2 only pre-2004).

Per Capita Personal Income U.S. and All States

*Note: I define "clearly" or "squarely" as "a 4 year sustained run" just...I dunno...because that seems a good period of time.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Reading it over...it seems like Scotland still wants to benefits and attachments of the UK without being part of it. I don't see the rest of the UK letting them have it both ways.

That's basically it. The pro independence side seems to like saying that Scotland can keep the pound, the Queen, all the oil money, and the EU membership if they become their own country and then can have the left leaning politics they want. It's all kind of pie-in-the-sky, where they are promising the best of every possible world. There is no guarantee that the EU will take them, or that the UK will allow a EU-like free movement border. The oil money negotiations will be more than a bit contentious. And I'm sure the UK will be fine if Scotland feels abandoned a bit going forth - not merely out of spite, but out of the general idea of if you want to be independent, then bloody be independent and not mooch off us for various things (currency, etc).

[DaddyTorgo]

Back on topic though - as much as my inner Scot is all patriotic (yes - I have an inner Scot. My paternal grandmother (a Graham) was first generation US)...it wouldn't be a smart move.

[CAsterling]

I think Marc made a good point about the potential No voters now being more aware of situation thanks to the Polls showing the Yes vote leading, that could make a decisive difference.

Of course if they do vote Yes then one nice advantage is that the British Labour Party will lose a lot of its MPs, as most of Scotland tends to vote Labour or SNP. So without those MPs the UK would not have to put up with a Gordon Brown or Tony Blair type as PM for the foreseeable future.....always a silver lining

In fact I can see the Conservative party breaking the current coalition that is governing, and forcing a general election so they can win a majority and govern without needing a coalition for the next few years.....which might not be a good thing either.

And therein lies the problem - a Yes vote will have many far reaching consequences and not all of them have been given enough discussion for most people to be able to make an intelligent well informed decision - instead a lot of people are going to be voting based on emotion and then have to deal with the consequences later.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Marc, as far as I know, only Texas can go back to being a separate republic. Apart from that, I don't recall whether the confederates secession was ever addressed by law since we (unionists) only saw those states as in rebellion and not seceding.

There are a couple of other examples that come to mind.

Maybe Hawaii could claim it was involuntarily annexed by the US and could go this route, not sure how or why they would do it though.

Puerto Rico still has a large segment that would like independence, but it doesn't match those who want to be a State and those who want to keep the status quo.

[Cap Ologist]

Texas can only divide into smaller states if it chooses, it can't leave the union.

[nilodor]

Sounds like the whole Quebec mess we went through a couple of times. The first go around in the 70's set back the economy big time when all the major corporations fled to Toronto. Hell even the Bank of Montreal fled Montreal and just left some figurative HQ in Montreal.

[Oilers9911]

Originally Posted by nilodor

Sounds like the whole Quebec mess we went through a couple of times. The first go around in the 70's set back the economy big time when all the major corporations fled to Toronto. Hell even the Bank of Montreal fled Montreal and just left some figurative HQ in Montreal.

The separatists in Quebec also wanted to keep all of the benefits of being Canadian whilst gaining their independence. They wanted to keep the currency, the healthcare and if I am not mistaken, they also wanted to keep receiving money from the Canadian government like they do now.

I hope Scotland votes no. I am not from the UK or close to the situation but this just seems like the sum being stronger than the individual parts. Independence in this case sounds all well and good until the economic reality kicks you in the face.

[tarcone]

FREEDOM!!!!!!!

[Dutch]

I have to admit that was my first thought as well.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by Oilers9911

The separatists in Quebec also wanted to keep all of the benefits of being Canadian whilst gaining their independence. They wanted to keep the currency, the healthcare and if I am not mistaken, they also wanted to keep receiving money from the Canadian government like they do now.

I hope Scotland votes no. I am not from the UK or close to the situation but this just seems like the sum being stronger than the individual parts. Independence in this case sounds all well and good until the economic reality kicks you in the face.

Isn't healthcare run by the provinces, though?

What would the economic and political impact if Scotland goes on a global stage? I get the feeling it would be a pretty significant.

[Oilers9911]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Isn't healthcare run by the provinces, though?

What would the economic and political impact if Scotland goes on a global stage? I get the feeling it would be a pretty significant.

Healthcare is run by the Provinces but funded by the Federal government in large part. Each provinces get what is called transfer payments. Quebec received over 7 billion dollars in 2012 from the feds and wanted those payments to continue even if Quebec voted to separate from Canada.

So it wasn't quite correct of me to say that they wanted to use our health care, but they did want Canada to fund it more or less.

[Marc Vaughan]

The truth about the Scottish referendum ...

Scottish Referendum Truth (Video)

[molson]

Originally Posted by Oilers9911

Healthcare is run by the Provinces but funded by the Federal government in large part. Each provinces get what is called transfer payments. Quebec received over 7 billion dollars in 2012 from the feds and wanted those payments to continue even if Quebec voted to separate from Canada.

So it wasn't quite correct of me to say that they wanted to use our health care, but they did want Canada to fund it more or less.

Of course they'd want free cash, what country wouldn't. But is Canada going to provide if it the separation movement succeeded? Like if one of those elections succeeded, is Canada just on the hook for those payments for some reason?

I guess that whole angle kinds of confuses me, from an American perspective. The role of the original country. Do Canadian and European provinces generally have a right to just leave via vote if they feel like it? (Realizing that Scotland isn't a province, but still, was the authority to leave always part of the deal?) Does the original country retain some legal responsibility to support the new country?

[Solecismic]

Having traveled in Scotland (my father also spent a year there when he was in college), I can certainly see why this movement has momentum.

But I don't see it passing, unless Miliband does something really dumb in the next few days. Polling in Quebec prior to their last sovereignty referendum in 1995 had the "yes" vote steadily moving up - even to a 4-6 point lead with that similar large number of undecideds in the final week. It ended up losing by 1 point.

The real test is how London responds to a failed vote. Since it's Labour country, will the party make changes to ensure that this doesn't happen again?

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

The real test is how London responds to a failed vote. Since it's Labour country, will the party make changes to ensure that this doesn't happen again?

Also, mow much of a strain will this vote-win or lose-put on the relationship of the more conservative base in the rest of the UK against the Labour-leaning Scots? Will the rest of UK have hard time in giving into any Scottish demands/interests?

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Also, mow much of a strain will this vote-win or lose-put on the relationship of the more conservative base in the rest of the UK against the Labour-leaning Scots? Will the rest of UK have hard time in giving into any Scottish demands/interests?

I'm outside of the UK these days - but as an English person I'm personally appalled at how much bending over backwards the UK Government appears to be happy to do in order to retain Scotland at part of the Union.

Frankly they already have the 'best of it' with regards to many services - if they want to sod off and see how they get on alone I'd let them do it.

The alternative is simply to give them more then repeat this farce in ten years time when they once again get fed up with their 'harsh' treatment of getting better services than the rest of the UK ...