Werewolf CLXVII - The Wheel of Time - Game Over

[Autumn]

Day 2 Vote Count

Timmae [1] - Vaimes (212)
Britrock88 [2] - Narcizo (226), Grover (232)
Zinto [1] - The Jackal (233)
The Jackal [1] - cheekimonk (242)
cheekimonk [1] - britrock88 (248)

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

I moved to EagleFan because it was an odd move to put himself in more danger - eliminating Grover...one of the 2 tied w/ him at the time - to try to jumpstart a run on someone w/ 1 vote (Jackal).

He either knew something about Jackal (not likely on Day 1) or was luring votes off of him and possibly timmae, too. A risky, and peculiar, move.

Yeah, my chasing you with that vote might be treating the situation a bit consequentially. I still think endangering oneself to go after someone else is a strong good play, though (even if a little more confusing by virtue of being the seer).

[cheekimonk]

And, I might add, a dishonorable move to timmae at the last minute. Something the Aiel do not abide.

[Coffee Warlord]

Observations...

- We have to assume that the wolves had no idea EF was the seer. At best, any late movement was simply making sure a villager died. It was easy to nail him based on his somewhat odd late vote.

- We have to assume EF didn't get a night 0 scan. Therefore his vote on Jackal was just a barely educated guess. Day 1 vote.

- 3 people (including EF, a known villager), drop Grover out of the running with what, 10 minutes?

- Grover himself never moved, wasting his vote last night.

- Zinto tried to force a tie at the last second. Which, per the rules, is 'get none or all'. I get the possibility of a last second attempt to save the claimed seer, but he had to know that was a lost cause with the reveal coming at 1 minute left. Odd. Also add in his wham-bam vote on Jackal when EF moved. Double odd.

- Timmae votes to save himself, choosing EF over Grover. Nothing but a coin flip there, unless Grover and Timmae are both wolves.

No, I have no conclusions. Just noting things right now.

[Coffee Warlord]

Honestly, barring some other insights, which I'm perfectly happy to listen to, I presently feel much the same way as last night - we get the most information by offing Grover.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Honestly, barring some other insights, which I'm perfectly happy to listen to, I presently feel much the same way as last night - we get the most information by offing Grover.

I feel this a tad, but while I did take note of Zinto immediately following EF onto Jackal, I had forgotten about his last-second attempt to tie the vote.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Honestly, barring some other insights, which I'm perfectly happy to listen to, I presently feel much the same way as last night - we get the most information by offing Grover.

And I said that I would be away from my computer from around 6pm to deadline.

So my non-movement is simply because I was not able to get to the forums.

[cheekimonk]

Actually, Coffee, that's a good point about Grover not moving at all. Even at the top of the table all day he kept his head down.

unvote Jackal
vote Grover

[MartinD]

VOTE GROVER

Based on an initial feeling from reading through the posts leading up to yesterday's deadline - don't have anything more than this, though, so will come back later on to go over things again.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Grover

I've got my bowling league tonight (I know you're jealous), so I may be lurking via my phone, but whether or not I contribute between 6:30 EST - Deadline is hazy.

This is why I did not move.

I don't want to be so defensive about why I didn't change from vaimes, but this is pretty much it.

As far as keeping my head down, why challenge a day one vote? What would I be able to do to prove any innocence as a villager when we have nothing to go on?

[path12]

To clarify Britrock88's point above, yeah, I miscounted and thought I was tying Grover up last night -- was in a hurry.

But that immediate move away from him was odd and I do not know how to process it. Could just as easily be coincidence though. God I hate day 1's, especially when we lose roles.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Observations...

- We have to assume that the wolves had no idea EF was the seer. At best, any late movement was simply making sure a villager died. It was easy to nail him based on his somewhat odd late vote.

- We have to assume EF didn't get a night 0 scan. Therefore his vote on Jackal was just a barely educated guess. Day 1 vote.

- 3 people (including EF, a known villager), drop Grover out of the running with what, 10 minutes?

- Grover himself never moved, wasting his vote last night.

- Zinto tried to force a tie at the last second. Which, per the rules, is 'get none or all'. I get the possibility of a last second attempt to save the claimed seer, but he had to know that was a lost cause with the reveal coming at 1 minute left. Odd. Also add in his wham-bam vote on Jackal when EF moved. Double odd.

- Timmae votes to save himself, choosing EF over Grover. Nothing but a coin flip there, unless Grover and Timmae are both wolves.

No, I have no conclusions. Just noting things right now.

I probably need to go reread the rules. I didn't know the tie rules until you just posted them but none was better than the result we got and I don't think it made sense not to try and save a claimed seer.

[Zinto]

There were a lot of drive by votes which isn't uncommon in day one especially without Autumn and Jag pushing the vote early and often. It made it so it was pretty easy to place a vote early and feel no pressure in moving as the day progressed.

[Zinto]

I wonder if Eagle's hunch was that even though Jackal was on the block early nothing really materialized for him. He got a couple votes early but was never in any real danger.

[Zinto]

I am probably not going to vote for Grover because I don't see the wolves moving off him to try and save him. It just isn't that great of a play and would easily come back to haunt a baddie.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I wonder if Eagle's hunch was that even though Jackal was on the block early nothing really materialized for him. He got a couple votes early but was never in any real danger.

But that happens every game. More I think about it the more it seems just like what he said, a hunch and nothing else.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Grover

And I said that I would be away from my computer from around 6pm to deadline.

So my non-movement is simply because I was not able to get to the forums.

I got occupied before I added an addendum to that comment of mine - that being I didn't look to see if you were even available.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I got occupied before I added an addendum to that comment of mine - that being I didn't look to see if you were even available.

Fair enough, mate!

[Chief Rum]

I don't think everything is above board on this EF situation.

EF wasn't born yesterday. He's a long time, veteran player. Doesn't anyone else think it is REALLY odd that a veteran veteran WW player chases a player with a vote AND put himself in more danger of being voted out at the same time...when he is also the flippin' seer?

I mean, that's nuts. I don't think enough is being made of that. I don't think EF was just playing a hunch (that's just what he said).

I think he has more on The Jackal, probably from something in his role, then seems clear here in the thread.

I'll also point out that the ruleset includes the moderator directive to not discuss the game after you have been killed, as you may still later impact the game, under IMPORTANT ADDITIONS. That could just be a generic directive, but given where it was added, I think not. Ergo, resurrection or some form of activity is still possible. It may be that setting up his own death was part of EF's role. Perhaps a step to being resurrected as a Dragon? I don't know. I haven't read the series, so I don't know if that sort of circumstance is a possibility in that world. Point is, though, EF made a very weird move for him, and I don't believe it was an accident.

[Chief Rum]

And on that thinking...

VOTE THE JACKAL

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

Actually, Coffee, that's a good point about Grover not moving at all. Even at the top of the table all day he kept his head down.

unvote Jackal
vote Grover

This seems opportunistic, especially in light of Grover's rebuttal due to AFKness.

[Raven]

fyi I am catching up now.
May be an hour before I know what's going on, but I am here.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I don't think everything is above board on this EF situation.

EF wasn't born yesterday. He's a long time, veteran player. Doesn't anyone else think it is REALLY odd that a veteran veteran WW player chases a player with a vote AND put himself in more danger of being voted out at the same time...when he is also the flippin' seer?

I mean, that's nuts. I don't think enough is being made of that. I don't think EF was just playing a hunch (that's just what he said).

I think he has more on The Jackal, probably from something in his role, then seems clear here in the thread.

I'll also point out that the ruleset includes the moderator directive to not discuss the game after you have been killed, as you may still later impact the game, under IMPORTANT ADDITIONS. That could just be a generic directive, but given where it was added, I think not. Ergo, resurrection or some form of activity is still possible. It may be that setting up his own death was part of EF's role. Perhaps a step to being resurrected as a Dragon? I don't know. I haven't read the series, so I don't know if that sort of circumstance is a possibility in that world. Point is, though, EF made a very weird move for him, and I don't believe it was an accident.

EF wouldn't come back as the dragon based on book lore. All Aes Sedai are female while the Dragon is male.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I don't think everything is above board on this EF situation.

EF wasn't born yesterday. He's a long time, veteran player. Doesn't anyone else think it is REALLY odd that a veteran veteran WW player chases a player with a vote AND put himself in more danger of being voted out at the same time...when he is also the flippin' seer?

I mean, that's nuts. I don't think enough is being made of that. I don't think EF was just playing a hunch (that's just what he said).

I think he has more on The Jackal, probably from something in his role, then seems clear here in the thread.

Believe me, I've thought about that. Here's the thing. Unless the "more" is Jackal is a wolf (in which case if you have concrete info like that, you flat out say it - I don't care if it's Day 1 or not), I'm not sure, given the rules, what that "more" is gonna be that benefits us.

I almost wonder his saying he had a 'hunch' was a subtle attempt to reveal he was the seer that nobody picked up on. He was a lynch candidate at that point anyway, he took a shot at a subtle reveal, and we blew it.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Believe me, I've thought about that. Here's the thing. Unless the "more" is Jackal is a wolf (in which case if you have concrete info like that, you flat out say it - I don't care if it's Day 1 or not), I'm not sure, given the rules, what that "more" is gonna be that benefits us.

I almost wonder his saying he had a 'hunch' was a subtle attempt to reveal he was the seer that nobody picked up on. He was a lynch candidate at that point anyway, he took a shot at a subtle reveal, and we blew it.

If his move was to subtly reveal by saying he had a hunch than I don't think we would have ever got it. He played very similarly last game and wasn't the seer.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Zinto

If his move was to subtly reveal by saying he had a hunch than I don't think we would have ever got it. He played very similarly last game and wasn't the seer.

He was the seer last game, wasn't he?

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

He was the seer last game, wasn't he?

Nope I just looked back and he was the BG.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

And on that thinking...

VOTE THE JACKAL

Knowing that we don't have much to go on, I know that it'll be easy to try and connect lines to me from EF since he had an important role - not sure how to dispute from my end. I'm thinking he just saw something weird to him in my voting or style .. kind of set me up for a rough deal since he never expanded on his thinking.

I moved to EF to see what would happen, mostly. I was intending on switching to timmae as I was reading along the thread around 9:15 and then realized I'd screwed up the deadline time.

[The Jackal]

unvote zinto
vote timmae

[Grover]

What about timmae has you voting for him, Jackal?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Grover

What about timmae has you voting for him, Jackal?

Well, I'm trying to decide if I think we had a wolf on the block between the 3 of you or not yesterday. I think we learn a lot with timmae, but I need to look more closely at the vote movement before I commit to thinking there was a distinct effort to save him.

Gut-wise I feel better about voting Zinto.

[timmae]

Originally Posted by Zinto

EF wouldn't come back as the dragon based on book lore. All Aes Sedai are female while the Dragon is male.

Rereading the game set and this is how I read it as well.

Question on the female and male channelers. Am I correct in thinking that the 4 factions are made up of some combination of female and male channelers? I.e. the Aes Sedai are female channelers while the male channelers are in the other factions? Femail channelers have their power consistently while the male channelers have a one time use or something like it?

Originally Posted by Autumn

The World of the Wheel of Time

Channeling

In this world there are some who have been gifted, or cursed, with the ability to touch the One Source, that power that turns the Wheel of Time and creates all things. Those with this ability can do amazing and unbelievable things. For that they are admired, feared or shunned. The act of weaving the power of the One Source is known as Channeling, and it comes in two distinct varieties.

Female Channelers - Women who can channel touch the female half of the Source, known as Saidar. Any woman with this ability is brought to the White Tower where she learns to use it in the service of the Aes Sedai. These women are the ones who have held back the influence of the Shadow for thousands of years.

Male Channelers - Men who channel touch a separate half of the Source, called Saidin. However, when the Dark One was sealed away he tainted Saidin, so that no man can channel for long without being driven insane. They are a true threat to the world, having Broken it once before. But it is assumed that when the Dragon returns, he will be a channeler, as have been many of the false Dragons in the past. Without the ability to channel will he able to face the Dark One? With it will he go insane and destroy the world before he saves it?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by timmae

Question on the female and male channelers. Am I correct in thinking that the 4 factions are made up of some combination of female and male channelers? I.e. the Aes Sedai are female channelers while the male channelers are in the other factions? Femail channelers have their power consistently while the male channelers have a one time use or something like it?

Hard to speculate how they set up the game, but can speak to the books at least. Male channelers would definitely not be Aes Sedai, and in general channeling as a man was basically a death sentence and/or resulted in you being "gentled" by Aes Sedai and losing your ability to channel.

We might only have one male who can channel, him being the dragon. If there are other male characters who can channel, there could be a "false dragon" who has the ability to channel but isn't the actual dragon. There were lots of those over the years in the books. If the forsaken is a male character, they'd also be able to channel.

Not sure if I'm answering your question here, though. What are you driving at in terms of the separation of factions/channelers?

[The Jackal]

And if we're looking at the four factions - one of them is Aes Sedai so presumably that's where all the Aes Sedai would be. I doubt we have channelers in the other factions other than the Dragon and Forsaken. The other 1-2 (probably 1?) bad guy is likely just a darkfriend with some power that isn't channeling related.

[The Jackal]

Probably at least one warder in the game likely as a BG with something specific in regards to protecting Aes Sedai. The warder/Aes Sedai bond is huge and that might even be a potential lover role.

(For those that don't know, lovers usually have PM rights but often if one of them dies the other one dies too, which actually would make a ton of sense in this game because in the books if one of the Aes Sedai/Warder bond died, the other would go crazy with emotional loss and often end up martyring themselves, etc)

[The Jackal]

And of course there's the chance that one of the Aes Sedai is black ajah masquerading as one of the other ajahs.

[Chief Rum]

Yes, it would appear you guys are right about EF and the possibility he could return as the Dragon.

That said, it doesn't discount him coming back in some other form, nor that it could have been a role-based move to get himself skilled.

[timmae]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Hard to speculate how they set up the game, but can speak to the books at least. Male channelers would definitely not be Aes Sedai, and in general channeling as a man was basically a death sentence and/or resulted in you being "gentled" by Aes Sedai and losing your ability to channel.

We might only have one male who can channel, him being the dragon. If there are other male characters who can channel, there could be a "false dragon" who has the ability to channel but isn't the actual dragon. There were lots of those over the years in the books. If the forsaken is a male character, they'd also be able to channel.

Not sure if I'm answering your question here, though. What are you driving at in terms of the separation of factions/channelers?

That helps... I was wondering if the male channelers were part of the factions generally or whether they needed to be shadow. Not sure that either really makes more sense out of the roles but trying to wrap my mind around it all. I am trying to figure out the roles within the game set to verify why EF would do what he did. I don't have a good explanation... his claim with 1 minute was just so odd.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yes, it would appear you guys are right about EF and the possibility he could return as the Dragon.

That said, it doesn't discount him coming back in some other form, nor that it could have been a role-based move to get himself skilled.

I'd say it's very doubtful he'd come back as the Dragon, since he was an Aes Sedai (female). Dragons are definitely male.

Now, that's not to say he couldn't come back/influence in some other way.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by timmae

That helps... I was wondering if the male channelers were part of the factions generally or whether they needed to be shadow. Not sure that either really makes more sense out of the roles but trying to wrap my mind around it all. I am trying to figure out the roles within the game set to verify why EF would do what he did. I don't have a good explanation... his claim with 1 minute was just so odd.

Yeah I really don't get holding that info back to the very end.

Being a channeler as a male doesn't automatically mean you are evil. The Dragon will be a male channeler but he's supposed to save the world (or go insane). The forsaken in the game, if male, will also be able to channel. Those characters will presumably be spread amongst the factions outside of Aes Sedai.

[The Jackal]

I'm guessing we have, out of 16:

5 aes sedai (possibly 1 of which is black ajah and thereby evil)
1-2 warders
1 dragon
1 forsaken
1-2 dark friends

And then 5-7 people with minor abilities/victory conditions/or some vanillas.

[The Jackal]

Meaning we're down to:
4 Aes Sedai
1-2 warders
1 dragon
1 forsaken
1-2 dark friends

4-6 others

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Yeah I really don't get holding that info back to the very end.

Being a channeler as a male doesn't automatically mean you are evil. The Dragon will be a male channeler but he's supposed to save the world (or go insane). The forsaken in the game, if male, will also be able to channel. Those characters will presumably be spread amongst the factions outside of Aes Sedai.

Actually, as I mentioned earlier, I'm not sure the Forsaken(s) is a part of any faction given that all the Forsaken were locked away with the Dark One ages ago.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

Actually, as I mentioned earlier, I'm not sure the Forsaken(s) is a part of any faction given that all the Forsaken were locked away with the Dark One ages ago.

I've considered that the forsaken might be outside of one of the factions - but a lot of them visibly settled into cities and positions of power in the book. For instance, the leader of Illian was a forsaken who had created the identity of some minor lord and then risen to power in the government. So I wouldn't be surprised if the forsaken is in one of the factions masquerading as a good person.

[The Jackal]

I feel like the mods said there was only going to be one forsaken based on the # of players, so I'm going with that for sure and expecting them to be powerful. At a minimum cunning, especially since EF's role sounds like it was for scanning darkfriends. Not that that matters too much anymore..

Dragon might be able to scan for them outside of a cunning mechanic, or some character with that ability. But I'd expect the Dragon and Forsaken roles are pretty powerful.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

Actually, as I mentioned earlier, I'm not sure the Forsaken(s) is a part of any faction given that all the Forsaken were locked away with the Dark One ages ago.

To expand on that, in the books the Forsaken were freed because the seals on the prison were starting to fade away. So they easily could immerse themselves in whatever faction they wanted. Especially the ones that were masters of compulsion - type of channeling where you basically make mindslaves out of people.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I know mine means nothing except that I an suspicious of Jackal.

I think this post ought to dispell any notion that Eagle had something solid to go off. Or he did and he didn't want to tip off the shadows.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Probably at least one warder in the game likely as a BG with something specific in regards to protecting Aes Sedai. The warder/Aes Sedai bond is huge and that might even be a potential lover.

I was thinking about that - did Eagle have a lover- link that would result in both dying if he was night killed but not if he's lynched? Ultimately I guess it doesn't matter but it would explain him not revealing.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Well, I'm trying to decide if I think we had a wolf on the block between the 3 of you or not yesterday. I think we learn a lot with timmae, but I need to look more closely at the vote movement before I commit to thinking there was a distinct effort to save him.

Gut-wise I feel better about voting Zinto.

I never get wolf gut reads at this stage, only village ones. Of course come day four I get nothing but wolf gut reads.

I don't think chasing our tails with votes to clarify day one is the way forward at this stage. You risk wandering down a blind alley. I tend to think that you want to look elsewhere on day two unless something slaps you round the face.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I never get wolf gut reads at this stage, only village ones. Of course come day four I get nothing but wolf gut reads.

I don't think chasing our tails with votes to clarify day one is the way forward at this stage. You risk wandering down a blind alley. I tend to think that you want to look elsewhere on day two unless something slaps you round the face.

More along the lines of gut "hm, that was a fishy vote/reasoning", rather than gut "he must be scum".