A Positional Experiment

[cuervo72]

Sparked by discussions in a couple of other threads, I have decided to play around a little with changing positions and settings in the csv file for creating a player.

To start the experiment, I have taken a modified version of what I have so far for my Frederick Tequilas csv file, but have added 3 players based upon RB Luther Elliot (a second year RB who started 16 games). These have been named One Elliot, Five Elliot, and Nine Elliot. These players are identical to Luther, except they have been given specific values for defensive back attributes/abilities. One has been given 1's for things like run d, mtm, b&r, etc. Five has been given 5's, and Nine has received 9's.

Next I created the player file using the csv, and imported this into a new career. Then I switched each Elliot to FS from RB. Here are the players' overall rankings at both RB and FS:

		RB	FS
Elliot, Five	35/43	11/45
Elliot, Nine	31/38	8/23
Elliot, One	33/37	10/41
Elliot, Luther	28/34	6/39

All players lost current ability (22-24 points), but three of them are now rated higher at FS. What is most interesting is that Nine Elliot, who would have been expected to have been the strongest FS, is ranked FAR lower than the other 3.

Oh, one other interesting twist to the experiment is that Nine, Five and One were each originally in the RB depth chart, and stayed there after the position change. So with a nod to QuikSand, I am locking them in, and will begin to sim.

[cuervo72]

Well, year 1 of the first experiment is complete, and Baltimore (real town for the Tequilas roster) won the Solecismic Bowl 20-0 over Green Bay. Having the only team defined in a player file will do that, apparently

Anyway, Luther - the original - Elliot was injury prone, and played in 9 games, starting 5. He had 25 tack, 10 asst, and 1 sack w a 12.7 tkpct. Luther also had 2 INT. 282 plays total.

Nine played in 16 games, starting 12, and had 39 tckl, 7 asst and a 6.8 TkPct. He had 3 fumble recoveries, and ran the ball 3 times for 19 yards. 668 plays total.

Five started all 16 games, and had 29 tack, 16 asst, 1 sack for a 3.7 TkPct. He had 2 INT. He also rushed the ball 317 times for 1206 yards (3.8 avg) and 9 TD, and caught 26 passes for 144 and 4 TD 1231 total plays!

One played in 14 games starting 5, and had 19 tckl, 8 asst, 1 INT for a 7.3 TkPct. One ran the ball 11 times for 31 yards and a TD. 367 plays.

Here is how their development is progressing:

		RB	FS	EOY
Elliot, Five	35/43	11/45	18/45
Elliot, Nine	31/38	8/23	11/23
Elliot, One	33/37	10/41	15/41
Elliot, Luther	28/34	6/39	8/39

As expected, Five has progressed the most out of the bunch, at 7 points. What is surprising is that One has shown the next most improvement, even though he participated in 300 fewer plays than Nine, and started only 5 games. Luther was just injured too often.

I think it might be worth noting, and I failed to mention it before, that One and Five have very low volatility ratings - 9 and 12 respectively. Luther's is 68 (I also forgot to mention that he is the secondary leader), and Nine's is 91.

Five also won Defensive POY honors, and was named All-League 1st Team Safety. Maybe because he scored more than any other non-kicker

[Samdari]

I am curious how this works changing seasons. Do the now converted safeties remain on the depth chart at RB for the following season?

[Subby]

So what early conclusions do you draw from this experiment?

[Bee]

Originally posted by Subby
So what early conclusions do you draw from this experiment?

The Elliot's have given their children very strange names.

[QuikSand]

I can't read this without thinking of Jeri Ryan. Not an altogether bad thing, mind you.

[Bonegavel]

Jeri Ryan and football in the same thread.... I need some of Bucc's tissues.

[Fritz]

Originally posted by QuikSand
I can't read this without thinking of Bob Ryan in a speedo. Not an altogether bad thing, mind you.

[cuervo72]

Originally posted by Subby
So what early conclusions do you draw from this experiment?

Well, so far I don't have many conclusions, except that playing time, or maybe more specifically accomplishments, lead to development no matter where the player is playing.

I also have a theory that Player of the Year honors may be in some way tied to the number of hall of fame points that a player generates for a year (gee, really?). Jim stated that different positions needed different number of points to be elected to the HOF, I believe QB's were at the high end of the spectrum with 6000, and DL's at the low end with 3000. I'm guessing RB's are also at the high end, and DB's are at the lower end. So as my FS was racking up rushing yards, he was also getting a good number of HOF points, probably much more than a normal DB would. When calculating the honors for Def. POY, Five (I did think of Jeri Ryan, but I also though Seven Little Monsters) eclipsed the other defenders point totals, so he was named Def. POY even though he didn't really do much on defense.

What I am curious about is Nine, and how he will develop. Right now, it almost seems as if the game took into account the preset defensive values little or not at all, as they all have roughly the same scouted ability. Except for Nine. There was no X-factor, so I'm wondering if he is really on the level of the others, but because of his high volatility is masked. But the interesting thing about that is that he only varied from the others AFTER the position change. So I also wonder if there is a factor in there that will randomly wreck a player when changing positions.

I don't think I mentioned it before either, but if I remember correctly my scout is rated EX for the secondary.

[cuervo72]

Interestingly, between the end of the season and the beginning of the free agency period, I noticed changes in both current and future ratings, and not for the good, either. I also noted ratings at the beginning of the Late Free agency period (i.e. after the draft) and following training camp.

		EOY	BFA	LFA	ATC
Elliot, Five	18/45	18/40	17/40	20/40
Elliot, Nine	11/23	9/22	11/28	13/28
Elliot, One	15/41	13/39	13/39	16/39
Elliot, Luther	8/39	8/40	8/39	11/39

So in summary, Five (the star running back ) saw his future rating decline by five points between the end of the season and free agency, then lost a current point, and gained 3 back during camp. Overall, +2/-5.

Nine lost actual and future, then gained actual back while getting a nice jump in his future potential. +2/+5

One took a small hit BFA, and gained current points back during camp. +1/-2

Luther pretty much stayed the same except for normal camp progress. +3/0

I am finding it interesting that both Five and Nine are starting to be drawn back to the mean. I am almost expecting future potential do drift down a point or two here and there, with Nine making some gains before everyone settles at about the same point. I''ll continue with this for a couple of seasons to see if this is indeed what happens.

[cuervo72]

Just to follow up on this:

End of Year 2
Elliot, Five	24/40 - 16 GP, 11 GS, 44 TCKL, 20 ASST, 1 SCK, 2 INT, TD. 10.1 Tk%.
Elliot, Nine	16/28 - 16 GP, 9 GS, 44 TCKL, 8 ASST, 1 INT, 10.1 Tk%.
Elliot, One	22/39 - 16 GP, 12 GS, 46 TCKl, 17 ASST, 1 SCK, 1 INT. 9.9 Tk%.
Elliot, Luther	12/39 - 4 GP, 0 GS, 9 TCKL, 2 ASST, 13.7 Tk%.  
Numerous injuries, and is out for 28 more weeks.

No real changes during the season, just some increases due to playing time. And more injuries for Luther.

What is interesting is what happened in the following offseason:

		BEGY3	BFA	LFA	ACMP
Elliot, Five	24/40	23/39	23/39	25/39
Elliot, Nine	16/28	16/28	20/37!!	22/37
Elliot, One	24/39	22/39	21/38	23/38
Elliot, Luther	12/39	12/40	13/40	15/40

BEGY3 = beginning of Year 3, BFA = Before Free Agency, LFA = Start of Late FA, ACMP = After Camp

So, between the draft and the late free agency phase, Nine made a 9 point jump in potential, with a 4 point increase in actual. Given his volatility and the knowledge that these started as the same running back, this was anticipated. He is now roughly on par with the rest of the bunch. Interestingly, even though he is out with a long term injury, Luther benefited from training camp. (I simmed some more following this and Luther took a 10 point hit later, though the game crashed so this wasn't saved).

So far there is no evidence that the defensive traits that were present when creating the player file have had any bearing on how these players will end up after a position switch. It is interesting though that they all are at about the same perceived level of skill. I'll see how they pan out, though I'm thinking Luther is going to be diminished by his injuries.