2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I'm shocked no one's mentioned this guy as a potential Trump VP pick yet... He's AMAZING. (PS what is it with Princeton producing nut jobs from Texas these days?)

Erm, can't really knock his theory about that particular race however.

First-listing bias is a long known phenomenon, and the effect is more pronounced in primaries and also stronger in down ballot races.

Now if Texas shuffles the ballot order randomly or something and he wasn't aware of that then, yeah, he looks like an idiot for not knowing. But he's got a pretty reasonable point about a campaign for such a position not being brain surgery.

[Solecismic]

It's still a campaign very limited by geography, but Cruz has had a real surge over the last week or so. This, and the campaign against Trump will make the next week rather interesting.

However, these primaries/caucuses are proportional and March 15 is still setting up to be a difficult day for the establishment.

It would be wonderful to imagine a country where people make fully informed decisions in voting. But we wouldn't be a Democracy or a Republic at that point, and we'd be even more dismayed by the decisions "other" informed voters made.

This is the year when people throughout the normal political spectrum decided that "elites" suck. Whether the elites are "one percenters" or "political cronies and the media," they suck. So you have about 35-40% of each side, which includes people who rarely voted in the past and might rarely vote in the future, voting for different forms of populism.

On both sides, the favorite is doing his or her best to address the concerns of those who are angry. And the populist seems more interested in forcing his issues to the forefront than in actually winning. The problem for the Republicans is that there never was a favorite. And now the establishment has taken this stance which only emboldens those who are angry and blurs the lines for those who aren't.

It's not over for Trump by any means. And we're running out of realistic outcomes that could seem positive for moderates who hate the idea of Trump as president. Cruz has momentum, but he's still a right-wing candidate who doesn't play well with others. Rubio's candidacy was modeled more after Bush 43's likable pitch than Reagan's. He's trashed himself. And Kasich doesn't inspire as a leader.

[Arles]

The more I watch these guys, the less I want any of them to be president. My preference would be Kasich, because he atleast understands the process and has had success in leadership roles.

Rubio is like the Doogie Houser - he acts smart and has some energy, but he does come off as a lightweight.

Cruz is like the smug professor teaching at the Junior College and hoping for tenure. He has such a higher opinion of himself than his accomplishments should afford. His likability is between Golem on LOTR and the dentist standing above a Lion he killed in an African Safari.

Trump is just Trump. He's obnoxious, he never gives any semblance of a plan for leadership and is the king of the petty insult. He's a caricature of the stereotypical politician and about as far from "presidential" as you can get. He switches stances on major items when the wind changes, but sticks his head in the mud on odd things like killing the families of terrorists. I don't get it, but people love him so more power to him for pulling this off.

Two years ago I would have rather stuck a hot poker in my eye over voting for Hillary. Right now, I don't see any other reasonable option (baring a monumental Kasich 4th quarter comeback).

I feel like this pool of candidates is akin to the NFL having a top 5 quarterback group consisting of Blaine Gabbert, Johnny Football, Nick Foles, Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell. All you can do is laugh and hope/pray the next 2-3 draft classes have Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Joe Montana and Tom Brady.

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Trump is polling at 30%+ among college educated people, higher income voters, and independents, instead of buying in to the narrative and implying that every Trump voter is a poor dumb bigot.

Why do you think that is happening?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Arles

I feel like this pool of candidates is akin to the NFL having a top 5 quarterback group consisting of Blaine Gabbert, Johnny Football, Nick Foles, Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell.

Ha! That's a good way to put it. Sometimes you just get turd classes of candidates and you have to hope it gets better in the next one (Democrats in 2004 come to mind).

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Ha! That's a good way to put it. Sometimes you just get turd classes of candidates and you have to hope it gets better in the next one (Democrats in 2004 come to mind).

I still wish Dean could've won the nomination. I see him as a more pragmatic version of Bernie.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I still wish Dean could've won the nomination. I see him as a more pragmatic version of Bernie.

That's a fair view of him. He was painted as a far left type (maybe he acted like that during the campaign, I can't recall), but he governed in Vermont as a moderate and was quite popular for a number of years. The main negative thing I can recall was that he was over-obsessed with bringing commuter train service to Vermont (biggest town was 40k in size at the time). Our town council basically admitted they were being bullied into accepting train service and upgrading crossings for safety that no one else particularly wanted (mostly not wanting extra trains rumbling through all day) or else they would withhold funding to widen the main road in town. Sure enough, it basically went unused after everything was completed.

[Thomkal]

Well they have blamed President Obama for everything under the moon, so why not:

Republican blames Trump's rise on Obama's level-headedness | MSNBC

God forbid you blame your own party and leaders for it.

[Dutch]

MSNBC...we're talking bout...oh, forget it.

[Arles]

Perfect timing:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...cid=538twitter

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Dutch

MSNBC...we're talking bout...oh, forget it.

[Solecismic]

Predictions for tomorrow (no contest, unless there is significant response - I'll declare Quik the Super Tuesday winner):

Kansas Caucus (40 delegates): Cruz 38, Trump 33, Rubio 15, Kasich 13.
Kentucky Caucus (45): Trump 34, Rubio 29, Cruz 26, Kasich 11.
Louisiana Primary (Closed) (47): Trump 38, Cruz 35, Rubio 17, Kasich 8.
Maine Caucus (23): Trump 44, Rubio 25, Cruz 16, Kasich 14.

Delegate Totals from Saturday:

Trump 64 (402 total), Cruz 56 (292), Rubio 25 (137), Kasich 10 (37).

[Solecismic]

Trump has reversed his position on the torture of the relatives of terrorists. Because Trump wants to be reasonable, after all.

I was disappointed in this reversal until I realized he said "terrorists" rather than "telemarketers."

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Now, granted, it was actually pretty much a dead heat between him and Kasich in the smarter, wealthier towns here, but I would absolutely take Trump in a heartbeat over Cruz and Rubio. And it's worth looking at why Trump is polling at 30%+ among college educated people, higher income voters, and independents, instead of buying in to the narrative and implying that every Trump voter is a poor dumb bigot.

Trump has built that narrative himself. Remember, he loves "the poorly educated." And the numbers bear that out. Trump polls best among white, non-college graduates with household income under $50,000. He does about 10-20 points across the board better with that demo.

But the point is granted that Trump does better among high-earning college graduates than he should. Why? I think a big part is that people vote against their own self interests all the time. Making a lot of money and having a college degree doesn't mean you're smart and a rational voter. They make choices just as bad too. Is it a protest vote? Is it dissatisfaction with the candidates? They genuinely think Trump is presidential? Probably a little of all three.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Trump has reversed his position on the torture of the relatives of terrorists. Because Trump wants to be reasonable, after all.

It felt to me his "reversal" was much more subtle than has been reported. He's against killing and torturing "innocent bystanders" but if you're associating with a terrorist then you're fair game. He came very close to saying he was OK with arresting and killing the families of terrorist if they just happen to be around them but don't know they are terrorists.

He also wasn't asked the key follow-up: Would Trump support changing the law to allow waterboarding and "worse than waterboarding" so those would not be illegal orders? My guess is he would have said yes.

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I was disappointed in this reversal until I realized he said "terrorists" rather than "telemarketers."

So he's still in favor of waterboarding telemarketers, right?

[kcchief19]

I don't really have much of a feel for today's races. Kansas is the one I'm closest too and I think it's a coin clip between Cruz and Trump with Rubio third. A big Cruz win would surprise me, but not a big Trump win. He could run away with it.

[Solecismic]

I think the answer lies in a Congressional approval rating that's sometimes in single digits. That represents the generic trust that Washington acts in your best interests. So you might vote for someone you think will change the culture. I think that was part of Obama's appeal in 2008 and it's part of Trump's appeal today.

This week is about as unfriendly a group of primaries and caucuses possible for Trump. If he continues to win, and I think he'll do well but still considerably short of the pace he'll need to win the nomination outright, we have to change how we analyze political races. And in 2020, no doubt, someone equally outrageous will start generating buzz for the Democrats. Maybe it will be Kanye.

[kcchief19]

Early reports are that Cruz is pounding Trump in a few of the Maine caucus sites by a 2-to-1 margin. No exit or entrance polls today.

If today ends up being a good day for Cruz, it's going to be hard to tell if it's because the attacks on Trump are working or not. As Jim noted, today does lineup well for Cruz. In addition, not a lot of polls in today's states. I think Christie led the last Maine poll for crying out loud.

[kcchief19]

Wowzers, early results have Cruz with big leads in Maine, Kansas and Kentucky. Almost as notable, Rubio is currently fourth in all three states, albeit by about 1 percent in each state.

[JPhillips]

Cruz has also put way more into organization than any of the other candidates. Especially in caucuses, that matters.

[bronconick]

Everything today are closed caucuses and primaries. That's an obvious "establishment" edge. The only closed caucus before this was Oklahoma, where Cruz beat Trump.

[larrymcg421]

I imagine a Cruz presidency would probably set a record for veto overrides.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Early reports are that Cruz is pounding Trump in a few of the Maine caucus sites by a 2-to-1 margin. No exit or entrance polls today.

I would have figured this state for a Trump state, to be honest. It's not particularly evangelical, but there are a lot of poor, white voters.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I imagine a Cruz presidency would probably set a record for veto overrides.

The term ahead could set up that way almost no matter who wins.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I imagine a Cruz presidency would probably set a record for veto overrides.

Eh, seems doubtful to me. A Cruz victory in November would send a rather clear message to the do-nothing GOP members of Congress and put them on notice that they either produce or get unseated in the next primary.

As we've seen, they're loathe to give up power so they'd largely fall in line to preserve what little they had left at that point.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Early reports are that Cruz is pounding Trump in a few of the Maine caucus sites by a 2-to-1 margin. No exit or entrance polls today.

If today ends up being a good day for Cruz, it's going to be hard to tell if it's because the attacks on Trump are working or not. As Jim noted, today does lineup well for Cruz. In addition, not a lot of polls in today's states. I think Christie led the last Maine poll for crying out loud.

There was at least one in Kansas, and it had Trump ahead of Cruz. Cruz is pounding him there.

I realize the whole authoritarian thing is in play, but never has Trump sounded more like a full-on dictator than the whole "I'll tell them to do it and they'll do it" thing. I do believe that is a factor.

[Solecismic]

I don't think we've ever seen anything like this in politics. I heavily adjusted my predictions in Cruz's favor, but I'm not even close in Kansas. This is a game-changer, and the discussion over the next week may well be whether Rubio should drop out.

I just looked at the odds web sites, and what's happened in the last few hours is amazing.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I don't think we've ever seen anything like this in politics. I heavily adjusted my predictions in Cruz's favor, but I'm not even close in Kansas. This is a game-changer, and the discussion over the next week may well be whether Rubio should drop out.

Cruz should *beg* Rubio to stay in, at least through the Miami debate, and possibly SLC. Rubio getting down in the mud with Trump is unquestionably helping Cruz.

[cuervo72]

See, Trump I find amusing as much as anything. Cruz actually frightens me that he'd try to burn it all down.

(My view is not unbiased, having sat out of work during the shutdown for a couple of weeks.)

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

See, Trump I find amusing as much as anything. Cruz actually frightens me that he'd try to burn it all down.

(My view is not unbiased, having sat out of work during the shutdown for a couple of weeks.)

I'm still not convinced that Cruz has a better shot than Trump/Rubio/Kasich against HRC. My working theory is that once people who don't pay close attention earlier on start seeing Cruz, they might hate him even more than they'd hate Trump.

[kcchief19]

Just like every other day in the race so far, it's deceptive to make any grand sweeping predictions based on one day's results. And there certainly mitigating factors, such as the closed caucuses -- Trump hasn't fared well in one of those yet.

That said, I'm definitely surprised with how much Cruz is dominating today, even if Maine gets closer than it is right now (44-34 as of now). The few polls out there certainly pointed toward Trump, especially in Kansas, and Maine seemed a logical place for Trump to win. We will see what happens in Kentucky and Louisiana, but both have been in Cruz's strategy from the beginning.

Geography was tilted toward Cruz as well -- but Trump losing Maine sticks out like sore thumb.

That said, it really makes you wonder if the combination of Romney's attack and the debate had an impact today. I think it's worth noting that Rubio has led most of the attacks on Trump from the field, and he's under performing today too. The ugliness of the last few days may be taking its toll on both of them, with Cruz staying just slightly above the fray.

Of course, that doesn't explain why Kasich isn't benefiting -- although ARG has a poll today putting him way up front in Michigan.

[larrymcg421]

Cruz scares me way more than Trump. I'm not completely sold on the idea that Trump (even if he is faking it) will move to the middle, but there's a small chance of it and at the very least I think he'd try to protect his brand and care enough to want to get re-elected. Cruz is a true believer and will burn everything to the ground before compromising on what he believes.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I don't think we've ever seen anything like this in politics. I heavily adjusted my predictions in Cruz's favor, but I'm not even close in Kansas. This is a game-changer, and the discussion over the next week may well be whether Rubio should drop out.

I just looked at the odds web sites, and what's happened in the last few hours is amazing.

There is no way Rubio doesn't make it to Florida, but Florida is high noon for him. The polls still show him down double-digits to Trump. I don't think Cruz will get much of a bounce from today in Florida. But if Rubio loses Florida at all, he's toast.

Louisiana is a big test tonight. Two polls out yesterday had Trump up 12 and 17. If Cruz wins there too, it's definitely going to make things interesting.

[Solecismic]

When these votes are closed to independents, Trump is much weaker. Add that to the hit he apparently took from Thursday and Friday, and the path to 1,237 becomes difficult to see.

But Rubio has been hit just as hard. Where he's now a strong second, that could end up giving Trump a small plurality, which in WTA states still makes a big difference.

I think the path against Trump is more that Rubio performed seppuku and it's time to step out the way. However, the Cruz thing is another problem entirely for those of us who were ABC (anything but Cruz) when this started.

So I think Rubio should drop out, support Kasich, and see if ABC + ABT = anything.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I'm still not convinced that Cruz has a better shot than Trump/Rubio/Kasich against HRC. My working theory is that once people who don't pay close attention earlier on start seeing Cruz, they might hate him even more than they'd hate Trump.

Cruz will do nothing to move toward the middle, which will certainly hurt him with moderates.

You also wonder just how much surrogate support he will have. Cruz has done almost as badly as Trump when it comes to endorsements. Most of Congress hates him, so it's hard to picture him stumping for Senate and House candidates and vice versa. I think the GOP will have a standard bearer problem almost as bad as Trump with Cruz if people don't want to be with him.

But Cruz has a very smart and dirty staff. They are not disciplined, which could be their undoing. But Cruz would go full tilt nasty against HRC on day one. And he should be able to drive out the Evangelical vote like Bush did and McCain and Romney did not.

[Ben E Lou]

Very early Kentucky returns have Trump with a small (39-36) lead over Cruz.

[Ben E Lou]

Clay County, Kentucky is the poorest majority-white county in the country by per capita income and second poorest by median income. A billionaire businessman from New York City won 58% of the vote in Clay County, Kentucky.

Just think about that one for a few minutes.

[Edward64]

I don't like either but if it came down between the two, I'll take Cruz over Trump any day.

[Ben E Lou]

You can't make this stuff up.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/05/politi...ure/index.html

My favorite part of the article:

"Now I know. Don't forget you all raised your hands. You swore. Bad things happen if you don't live up to what you just did," Trump said before continuing with his speech.

Yes, we have just seen the political equivalent of "if you don't share this post, God won't bless you!"

[Ben E Lou]

I've long been aware, intellectually, that parts of Kentucky are wayyyyy rural. But it's still striking when the majority party in a state gets record turnouts...and in multiple counties that mean that the winner has less than 100 votes.

[PilotMan]

I wonder if Trump would go so far as to ask his supporters to stitch a golden T on their clothes to that supporters can find one another and more importantly find the ones who don't support him.

[Ben E Lou]

With 25% of the votes in, Trump is looking strong in Kentucky now (43-30-13).

[stevew]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I wonder if Trump would go so far as to ask his supporters to stitch a golden T on their clothes to that supporters can find one another and more importantly find the ones who don't support him.

Would encourage more poverty to breed.

[Ben E Lou]

Odds increasing of no one getting to 1237 before the convention, no?

[cuervo72]

Count faster, KY.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Odds increasing of no one getting to 1237 before the convention, no?

Definitely. That's the only path for ABT.

Trump is winning overwhelmingly in rural areas. It's easy to dismiss this as we can't identify with it, but these people keep saying they feel disenfranchised by the establishment. You'd think they'd turn to Cruz, but Cruz is a Senator and the Senate hasn't changed things despite being Republican for a couple of cycles now. Where else are they going to go?

I don't yet have a sense of how Kentucky will go. It's their first caucus, it ended a long time ago, and results are trickling in, but not evenly across the state. A six-percent difference could still revert.

Big night for Cruz, though. Horrible night for Rubio. For Trump, the narrative is fine if he hangs on in Kentucky.

[cuervo72]

Decision Desk giving Trump the check in KY.

Kentucky | Decision Desk HQ

[tarcone]

Ive been a Cruz supporter from the beginning. Im starting to get excited. Rubio is going to drag Trump down. I like it.

[Solecismic]

Estimated Delegate Totals for Saturday:

Cruz 68, Trump 53, Rubio 13, Unbound 11, Kasich 10.

Why unbound? Louisiana has rules that look like they were written by someone who didn't pass common core math requirements. These delegates probably split 8-3 Trump under the rules most states use. The questions are whether Louisiana's math problems violate RNC rules and how that can be addressed. Next Saturday, the state convention takes place and this will likely be discussed. Since there's a tiny chance this could affect the national convention, I'd expect this to be a rather heated debate.

National Estimated Total:

Trump 391, Cruz 304, Rubio 125, Kasich 37, Others 15, Louisiana Unbound (the title of the HBO movie that will be made from next week's state convention) 11.

Chris Christie has officially told his earned delegates to support Trump at the national convention. This brings Trump's estimated total to 391 (yes, that was meant to be a joke at Christie's expense).

Sunday's Contest: Puerto Rico (23 delegates).

This is "winner-take-most," which means it's not clear what the threshold is to earn delegates. It may be a lower ceiling than normal.

In any case, no polls have been taken, and it seems quite likely Rubio will earn all 23 delegates.

[Solecismic]

A look at other related numbers:

Trump (391) 44.8% of the total allocated to date, needs 56.9% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination.

Cruz (304) 34.9% / 62.7%.

Rubio (125) 14.3% / 74.7%.

Kasich (37) 4.2% / 80.6%.

You can see why the path is now pretty much limited to contested conventions for Rubio and Kasich. But still considerably uphill for Trump.

We're 35.3% of the way through the primary. There are 1,600 delegates remaining. But 112 of those (now 123 with Louisiana) may be unbound. Some states (and Guam) have procedures at their conventions to bind these delegates, though the voters have no say in this. This procedure, presumably, will not work in Trump's favor.

Winner-Takes-All States: Florida (99), Illinois (69), Missouri (52), Northern Marianas (9), Ohio (66), Virgin Islands (9), Arizona (58), Wisconsin (42), Delaware (16), Maryland (38), Pennsylvania (71), Indiana (57), Nebraska (36), California (172), Montana (27), New Jersey (51), South Dakota (29).

However, Winner-takes-All doesn't always mean the same thing in every state. In many, like California (the biggest prize), each congressional district is worth 3 delegates.

The following states are really and truly Winner-Takes-All, in that they aren't split into districts: Florida (99), Ohio (66), Arizona (58), Delaware (16 - it has only one district anyway), Nebraska (36), Montana (27 - also only one district), New Jersey (51), South Dakota (29 - one district).

Pennsylvania (71) has a set of rules I can't parse for the life of me. I think it's best almost to add most of these delegates to the unbound category.

All told, after looking over the math, I think the chances of a contested convention are a lot higher than most talking heads think. Especially if Trump and Not-Trump split Ohio and Florida.