A Question For The Board (Football and Odds and Numbers and Crap)

Suicane75 · 09-04-2016, 02:13 AM

I'm in a contest. The contest is thus. Pick 1 team from each conference. Add up the combined points scored from all your selections and win a prize.

As long as a game has not started yet, you can change your selection.

At the end of this evening, here is my conundrum.

Me: 551 BYU
#2: 539 BYU
#8: 489 Notre Dame

I'm winning. 2-7 all picked BYU but we all have the option of changing our selection to Notre Dame (Independent counts as its own conference).

My assumption is that #2 will switch to Notre Dame because, well he's losing. This would take 18 points off of his total and drop him down to 521.

The obvious correct thing for me to do is switch to Notre Dame right? Assuming he stands pat, or if I switch, force him to stand pat, I would lose 18 points, fall 6 points behind and only need Notre Dame to score 7 points to win the contest.

Suicane75 · 09-04-2016, 02:18 AM

I should add, If I see him switch, I obviously switch with him since #3 trails us both by 19 points. But if I don't see him switch, I should switch anyway, right?

Basically what I'm asking is would you be more comfortable needing 7 points to win, or needing Notre Dame not scoring 63 to win.

Suicane75 · 09-04-2016, 02:18 AM

Oh this has quickly become one of those threads where I get all flustered. I'm overthinking this right?

jbergey22 · 09-04-2016, 02:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Suicane75

I'm in a contest. The contest is thus. Pick 1 team from each conference. Add up the combined points scored from all your selections and win a prize.

As long as a game has not started yet, you can change your selection.

At the end of this evening, here is my conundrum.

Me: 551 BYU
#2: 539 BYU
#8: 489 Notre Dame

I'm winning. 2-7 all picked BYU but we all have the option of changing our selection to Notre Dame (Independent counts as its own conference).

My assumption is that #2 will switch to Notre Dame because, well he's losing. This would take 18 points off of his total and drop him down to 521.

The obvious correct thing for me to do is switch to Notre Dame right? Assuming he stands pat, or if I switch, force him to stand pat, I would lose 18 points, fall 6 points behind and only need Notre Dame to score 7 points to win the contest.

If you can switch still yes? BYU game is over. So you can switch after one of the games end? Notre Dame projected team total is 31. Hard to see them scoring less than 18 really.

Suicane75 · 09-04-2016, 02:25 AM

Yeah, as long as a game hasn't started, you can still switch to them.

Suicane75 · 09-04-2016, 02:32 AM

Scenario A: I stand pat, he switches to Notre Dame and loses 18 points from BYU in addition to the 12 he's already behind, and if Notre Dame scores 31 points he wins.

Scenario B: We both switch, I finish ahead. The problem here is that if I try and wait him out to see what he does and he switches at the very last moment before I get the chance to, I'm at the mercy of Notre Dame scoring less than 31. Teams become unselectable about 5 minutes before game time, but there's no "official" clock.

Scenario C: I preemptively switch and win if Notre Dame scores 7 points.

I think that explains it better.

jbergey22 · 09-04-2016, 03:03 AM

Yes, I see no advantage in not switching. The odds of Notre Dame scoring 7 or less are probably around 5 percent. Plus you are exposing yourself to falling way down the list if Notre Dame puts up 40+.

Game theory would indicate that you switch to Notre Dame and the #2 team should stick with BYU and hope for the 5 percent chance.

I cant think of a possible scenario where sticking with BYU is the good play here even if #2 stays with BYU.

CU Tiger · 09-04-2016, 10:00 AM

I see no chance ND scores 31.

jbergey22 · 09-04-2016, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

I see no chance ND scores 31.

They need to score 7 or less for him to not switch it up.

korme · 09-04-2016, 04:30 PM

This game is confusing.

CU Tiger · 09-04-2016, 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbergey22

They need to score 7 or less for him to not switch it up.

If he switches he wins if they score 8 or more.
If he stays out he wins unless they score 32.
I think the odds ND scores or less are greater than the odds they score 32 or more.

Suicane75 · 09-04-2016, 07:49 PM

I switched, I winned.

jbergey22 · 09-05-2016, 08:32 AM

Congrats. What place would you have gotten if you had stuck with BYU?

Suicane75 · 09-05-2016, 04:10 PM

Well, if I had stayed, everyone who was within 35 points of me and switched to ND would have jumped me. Nobody switched though, cause once I did it was pointless for them to do so.

CU Tiger · 09-05-2016, 05:34 PM

I was waaay off on that one

09-04-2016, 03:03 AM	#7
jbergey22 Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Minnesota	Yes, I see no advantage in not switching. The odds of Notre Dame scoring 7 or less are probably around 5 percent. Plus you are exposing yourself to falling way down the list if Notre Dame puts up 40+. Game theory would indicate that you switch to Notre Dame and the #2 team should stick with BYU and hope for the 5 percent chance. I cant think of a possible scenario where sticking with BYU is the good play here even if #2 stays with BYU. Last edited by jbergey22 : 09-04-2016 at 03:04 AM.

09-04-2016, 02:18 AM	#2
Suicane75 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NJ	I should add, If I see him switch, I obviously switch with him since #3 trails us both by 19 points. But if I don't see him switch, I should switch anyway, right? Basically what I'm asking is would you be more comfortable needing 7 points to win, or needing Notre Dame not scoring 63 to win.

09-04-2016, 02:25 AM	#5
Suicane75 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NJ	Yeah, as long as a game hasn't started, you can still switch to them.

09-04-2016, 02:32 AM	#6
Suicane75 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NJ	Scenario A: I stand pat, he switches to Notre Dame and loses 18 points from BYU in addition to the 12 he's already behind, and if Notre Dame scores 31 points he wins. Scenario B: We both switch, I finish ahead. The problem here is that if I try and wait him out to see what he does and he switches at the very last moment before I get the chance to, I'm at the mercy of Notre Dame scoring less than 31. Teams become unselectable about 5 minutes before game time, but there's no "official" clock. Scenario C: I preemptively switch and win if Notre Dame scores 7 points. I think that explains it better.

09-04-2016, 10:00 AM	#8
CU Tiger Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Backwoods, SC	I see no chance ND scores 31.

09-04-2016, 04:30 PM	#10
korme Go Reds Join Date: May 2001 Location: Bloodbuzz Ohio	This game is confusing.

09-04-2016, 07:49 PM	#12
Suicane75 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NJ	I switched, I winned.

09-05-2016, 08:32 AM	#13
jbergey22 Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Minnesota	Congrats. What place would you have gotten if you had stuck with BYU?

09-05-2016, 04:10 PM	#14
Suicane75 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NJ	Well, if I had stayed, everyone who was within 35 points of me and switched to ND would have jumped me. Nobody switched though, cause once I did it was pointless for them to do so.

09-05-2016, 05:34 PM	#15
CU Tiger Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Backwoods, SC	I was waaay off on that one

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