2017 14 Game Plus Two Tournament Thread

[digamma]

Placeholder for 2017 Ivy League Basketball thread.

Initial analysis will likely be light as I'm caught up in work stuff, but I enjoy looking at this and making picks each week.

Lots of stuff different in the Ivies this year, most notably the inception of a four team tournament at the end of the season. The goal is not to win the league but to make sure you are in the top half for a final weekend at the Palestra.

Biggest non-conference stories have been injuries. Two guys from the All Ivy first team last year have been lost to season enders: Makai Mason from Yale and Henry Caruso from Princeton. Still Yale and Princeton look to be solid picks for the top four. Harvard also looks to be a good bet. Before the season, the fourth spot seemed wide open, but Penn has had the best non-league season of the other five, and as we enter league play, there seems to be a gap between those four teams and Cornell and Columbia (the Cs) and Dartmouth and Brown.

The league schedule is a little different this season. We still get our traditional kick off today with a pair of travel partner games: Harvard plays Dartmouth and Penn plays Princeton. However, over the next couple of weeks we get some traditional games without having the full league at play. We don't get the first four game Friday night until the first weekend in February, when most teams will have played four games.

Even with all of that, it should still be a fun ride. Hang on tight.

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Jan 7 Games

Harvard vs. Dartmouth

Harvard is giving 5.5 at the moment to Dartmouth. Much more later on this Harvard team, which I really like, but this is an interesting spot. Harvard started the year slowly. Amaker took the approach of experimenting with line ups and rotations to try to find something for league play. He's landed on a line up with two seniors (Siyani Chambers and Zena Edosomwan), one sophomore (Corey Johnson) and two freshman (Seth Towns and Bryce Aiken). When things are clicking, Aiken and Towns are scoring, Siyani is passing, Corey Johnson is spreading the floor and Zena is rebounding and adding an inside threat. There's a ton of depth everywhere but maybe point guard. When it clicks, it is very, very good. The win over Houston is the highest game score (for the advanced metrics crowd) of the season for all Ivy teams. But there are some bad early losses.

There is enough of a talent difference here that Harvard should be able to win on the road. If it is a clicking moment, then Harvard should cover. You know my blind spot from last year, and I'm going to start the year going full steam ahead with it. The pick is the Crimson.

Penn vs. Princeton

The line is Princeton -8.

Princeton is still the best all around team in the league despite losing their best player to injury. Penn has been the surprise of the league in the early season.

The line here has moved from 7 to 7.5 to 8 over the course of the day. Princeton has played great recently, but has still disappeared at times this season. I was uncomfortable at 7 and the move to 8 is enough to get me to go with the road dog.

Quakers and the points.

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1-1 to start the year.

Harvard got production from non-starters, as Chris Lewis had 14 and Justin Bassey had the same. Both freshman. The Crimson overcame a sluggish start and put the Big Green away down the stretch 74-58. Good result overall, but the Crimson is still not hitting on all cylinders.

Princeton jumped out to a big lead and was up 34-19 at the half. Penn clawed back and tied the game at 46, but the Tigers hit free throws down the stretch, including 4 in the last minute to push a close game to a 61-52 final margin. Princeton takes care of business at home versus another potential top four team. That will be important all season.

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Here is the weird weekend I mentioned in the outset. Normally you only have travel partner games the first part of January, but Yale and Brown visit the Ps tonight and tomorrow night.

It's a huge test for Yale to go on the road against two other top four contenders this early in the season. It's equally important for Penn and Princeton to hold serve against the Elis at home. Brown is expected to fight for the bottom with Dartmouth and Cornell, but can play spoiler.

Tonight Princeton hosts Brown and Penn hosts Yale.

More on the games and picks later.

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Yale at Penn

Yale, of course, is our defending league champion. They also lost their three best players from last year, two to graduation (Justin Sears and Brandon Sherrod) and one to injury (pre-season player of the year pick Makai Mason). Yet, they've probably been the most consistent team in the league to date. They have a really good win over Washington and aside from faltering on an early three game road trip have been solid. They are led by a couple of freshman Jordan Bruner and Miye Oni.

Penn came in fifth in the league last year and seems improved this year. Of the four teams penciled in the top of the league, Penn is most often picked fourth and is probably the most likely team to slip out of the top four. This game is probably more important for them for that reason.

The line is Penn -1, and I think it is that tight of a game. Both teams shoot the 3 a decent amount and I think it comes down to who is better from outside tonight. I'll go with the home team and lay the point.

Penn -1

Princeton vs. Brown

Princeton is Princeton is Princeton is Princeton. As noted in the initial post, they were the odds on favorite in the league, returning five starters plus big man Hans Braase. However both Braase and first team All Ivy selection Henry Caruso were hurt, so they've plugged the next 6'6 guy into the mix. They've played well lately including outlasting Penn last weekend.

Brown is coming off a coaching change, but has probably played better than expected, even if against a weaker schedule than the rest of the league. Brown actually shoots the ball pretty well (Stephen Spieth, of the Jordan Spieths leads the way). The Bears turn the ball over a lot though, and have no real inside presence.

Last year we saw Princeton jump out to big leads a lot and then let people back into games. We saw that last weekend too versus Penn.

I'm going with that trend and taking the points.

Brown +15.5