Restore The Roar(FOF8)

Brian Swartz · 12-05-2016, 11:56 PM

I briefly started a similar project to this in FOF7, but I must see it through here. The Detroit Lions need help. As I documented then, the Lions are, by far, the most hapless NFL franchise. We must be fair and remember th championship teams they had under Bobby Layne ... but that was in the 1950s. Not exactly the modern game. Take the Super Bowl Era. Nobody comes close.

They've squandered players like Lem Barney, Billy Sims, Herman Moore, Barry Sanders(last two at the same time), Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford, Reggie Bush, Lomas Brown. Oh, and defense? Chris Spielman, Alex Karras, Dick "Night Train' Lane, Lem Barney, Ndamukong Suh, Ezekiel Ansah, Joe Schmidt, Robert Porcher, Al Baker, Bennie Blades, Jerry Ball, Luther Ellis. Special Teams? Mel Gray was the best returner in the league for years, Eddie Murray and Jason Hanson consistently among the top kickers. Ruined Heisman Trophy winners like Andre Ware and Rodney Peete. Coaches like Wayne Fontes who was successful everywhere else he coached and declared them at one point 'the best damn 0-4 team in the league'. Umm ... that really needs no elucidation. Steve Mariucci. The list goes on. And on. And on. Virtually without end.

This year's surprising departure from the trend(so far) aside, they've been a franchise who did brilliant things like score a game-winning TD, then lose it on the ensuing kickoff as time expired. Lose because they decided not to cover Sterling Sharpe at the end of the game, apparently thinking Brett Favre couldn't throw the ball 60 yards. Finding a way to lose, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory -- that's the Lions Way.

The Evidence

Only four NFL franchises have failed to reach the Super Bowl. Four. So that's a small group to compare with.

** The Jacksonville Jaguars didn't exist for more than half of them: this is their 22nd season, missing the first 29. Even so, they have a 5-6 playoff record, and made the AFC Championship Game twice. Lost badly both times, but still.

** The Houston Texans have an even shorter history, being in their 15th season. Even including them here is grossly unfair. Nonetheless, they're the only team that has yet to make a conference championship. 2-3, losing in the divisional round twice, is their playoff mark.

** The Cleveland Browns are the only team that's been around since the beginning and hasn't made the Super Bowl. And they've had times they should have. It's a sad, tragic story, one eclipsed only by the Lions. But they've been fairly successful when they managed to reach the playoffs, making the conference championships five times.

** The Detroit Lions, on the other hand, have one playoff win to their credit. One. A glorious game in which Erik Kramer and Barry Sanders led them to a 38-16 win over the Cowboys in 1994. More than two decades ago. They then were blitzed in the second half of the NFC Championship game by eventual Super Bowl winners Washington, easily the league's best team that year. Mark Rypien, Art Monk, all that group. The Posse.

11 other times, Detroit made the playoffs. 11 times, they lost their first game, many of them badly. 1-12 overall mark and one conference championship game. In other words, half the wins the Texans have, in more than three times the seasons and in four times the playoff appearances. And of course, extra credit for the 2008 season in which, possessing one of the worst defenses in NFL history(expansion teams included), they became the first and, to date only, team to go 0-16. I hope Cleveland doesn't lose four more this year and join us, though it seems likely. And fitting, somehow, that is Cleveland doing it, the runner-up for this 'award'.

The Detroit Lions stand alone, undisputed holders of the title of Most Worthless NFL Franchise(tm pending). My father once told me the Lions would never win a title while a Ford was in the owner's box. It didn't happen in his lifetime, and I'm not expecting it to happen in mine. Among the better facebook memes surrounding the team are 'Lions vs. Bye this week. Smart money is on Bye' and 'Lions fans make great girlfriends. They aren't expecting a ring.'

The Setup

So naturally, it's time for somebody who's never run a FOF franchise beyond 2-3 years to take the reigns. I could hardly do worse, could I? Here's the settings:

** Default Salary Cap, Combine, Injury stuff
** Full X Factor Off
** Chemistry On
** Gameplanning by AI/Rex
** Created History 2016-2029

Brian Swartz · 12-06-2016, 12:07 AM

Prologue

FOF8 impressed me with how faithfully it continued on with Detroit's long-standing tradition of ineptitude. In the 14 simmed seasons, they had a losing record 8 times. That's a little low, but usually the team hasn't been hopelessly bad ... just consistently mediocre at best. Five of the other six years they were 9-7, with one 10-6 year. Three times they made the playoffs.

It looks like they likely actually got a second win in the post-season in 2019. A rather humorous story actually. After three years of Stafford throwing for 3600-3900 yards with no running back hitting 750, they bring in Joe Flacco. His 4048 passing are tops in this history, Tate gets 1082 receiving, also tops, and RB Taylor runs for nearly a thousand. They lose in the divisional round of course, after which Flacco gets the Erik Kramer treatment apparently. That's the one where you trade away the QB who led your team to the first playoff win in a generation(two years after the '94 win, Kramer set a Chicago Bears franchise record for passing yards: 3800+ and 29 TDs. True story.)

That year was the third straight in a series of six years for Taylor as the Lions most productive feature back. He'd record nearly 3500 in the next three years combined, all losing seasons. Tate's gone as well at that point, and no receiver has more than 844 Lions receiving yards in the more than a decade since(Nick Chapman just last year in 2029). That's just ... I don't know what to even call that. Pathetic just doesn't quite seem to cover it.

In 2023, with Taylor gone, they go 9-7 and lose in the Wild Card Round. This is followed by four more losing seasons, bottoming out at 3-13 in 2027. Third-year quarterback Rafael Nunn throws for over 3800 yards, but has as many interceptions(16) as touchdowns. He's the man for half the games in '28, and they actually win the division at 10-6 ... and lose their first game.

Figuring he ain't the guy, Detroit's next move is to sign aging quarterback Teddy Bridgewater from Minnesota. After all, a 37-year-old who has more than 46k yards and 275 TDs for his career will really bring in the fans. Except that his 32 TD, 23 INT ratio the last couple years wasn't real enticing. He actually did better than that(15 and 5) and started every game for the third straight year. Not bad for a guy his age. Naturally, this being the Lions, it was almost good enough ... but not quite. They go 9-7, one game out of the playoffs.

And that brings us up to where we are now. 2030, and I've been inflicted on the team as the new general manager. Or is that the other way around? Time will tell. The playoff record is now 2-15. I guess that's a little better ... sorta. Still only one NFC title game appearance, and half the people alive then are now dead since it was 36 years ago. No Super Bowl appearances.

Brian Swartz · 12-06-2016, 12:18 AM

Super Bowl Champions(2016-2029)

Of course, there were some successful teams. Denver won in '16 and '18, part of a six-year string of AFC winners. The Broncos win again in '25, making it three-for-three. Dallas and Green Bay make the game twice, splitting those appearances. Carolina loses two more. Kansas City's lone appearance is a doozy, smashing the Cowboys 59-20 in 2017. Seattle loses 24-23 to Denver in '25, but makes up for it by winning the just-completed Super Bowl LXIV 30-13 over San Diego, depriving the Chargers of back-to-back championships(another win in '21 for them). There have been no such dynasties. Tennessee's another team to make it their twice, winning and losing once each. Their 16-14 loss to Dallas in '23 is the lowest-scoring game. New England has lost a pair also, last being just a few years ago.

The same four teams who hadn't made it? They still haven't. After all, football hates them, but none as much as it hates the Lions. Their misadventures are up next.

Brian Swartz · 12-07-2016, 12:29 AM

2029 Grades

** Team Performance: Above-Average
** Stadium: Good
** Profit: Very Good
** Roster: Bad(19)

Ah, there's the rub, right where it always is. There's a thing called talent: we don't have it.

** Salary cap is $206.3M, up 3.7M from last year. $590K is the current minimum. Timmy Jernigan and Jay Ajayi have joined the Hall of Fame. Having been in cryostasis for the past decade and a half, I don't know who these guys are.

2030 Staff

** HC Josue Page -- Page is on a 3-year, $8.72M contract. Probably staying. 46, and already has a 68-80 career record with 2 playoff seasons. Focuses on TEs. Erhardt-Perkins is his preferred philosophy. Honestly though, we could do a lot worse. He's a little above average or better everywhere. Motivating, development including young talent are his best abilities.
** OC Horace Langham -- 1 year, $2.72M. Likes the Spread offense and focuses on QBs. 52 with 14 years of experience, none as head coach. Good with young players and development, very good at scouting, can't interview worth a darn. Wants another $600k to come back. Why not, we've got Ford money to burn ... except that I'd rather have somebody with the same philosophy as Page.
** DC Bert Griffin -- History, as his contract's up.
** AC Cole Downs -- 1 year, $2.73M so we've got to decide on him. 64, and a former HC with a 34-62 record. Easy to see why he's not one anymore. Focus position is WR. Discipline, scouting, player development are all excellent. Pretty good interviewer. Royally sucks at everything else though. Too many weaknesses for me to want to retain him.
** Strength Coach Terrace Gagnon -- 1 year, $1.26M. I'm definitely getting thrown in at the deep end of the pool ... only the head coach is a definite stay. Gagnon is 65, good at conditioning but a zero in strength training. Gotta do better than that.

Before I can even look at the roster, we've definitely got some hires to make. We have a quality coach with a dodgy staff at best and little talent to work with. Alrighty then.

** Philadelphia gives George Dalton(50) his first shot. A defensive-minded coach who will improve his players with the best of them, his motivating skills are suspect, and playcalling ability virtually non-existent.

** Minnesota goes for experience, tabbing Cesar Bush(49), who is 24-25 for his career. He's got a ball-control, run straight ahead approach, and his teams always play hard, especially the younger players. Skill development, scouting, interviewing, playcalling are all decent at best.

** New York signs Karlos Dansby. 49, he has a lot of experience at 83-95, favoring a blitzing defense. I'd have seriously considered dumping Page if he was still available for us; he's that good. Play calling and interviewing are above-average, everything else is good or better. Dansby's a heck of a coach, and will make playing the Giants not much fun.

** Pittsburgh hires Will Blackmon(46). When you find a coach with a winning record(89-79) available you have to pay attention. Blackmon's teams are extremely disciplined, and while he doesn't have the abilities of Dansby overall, there are no weaknesses. Another proponent of skilled wideouts in a spread attack.

** Indianapolis grabs Kenyon Gomez(47). A 57-72 record for him. Favors the West Coast with emphasis on the blocking up front. Gomez is only decent as an interviewer, but belongs in the same class as the last couple of guys; he's a worthy NFL head coach.

** Houston goes with Wes Meier(48). He doesn't have the same level of experience at 20-28, and prioritizes the defensive secondary. Not terrible, but borderline as a head coach I think. Definitely not the guy to get the Texans to a championship level. Handles his players pretty well,. but playcalling and scouting talent both college and pro is maybe average.

** Then it was our turn. Of the coaches available, no question the best one is the one we have, Josue Page. He's here unless there's a compelling reason to go in a different direction, and I don't see one right now. Among the head coaches in the league, some are better and some are worse, but he's not one I'm ready to throw back.

** San Francisco nabs Bert Robinette(49). He's the second guy so far to get his first HC job, and with all due respect I understand why. Scouting and player development of all shades he's fantastic at, but he basically sucks at everything else. Would make a heck of an assistant somewhere I think, but not the guy to run a team.

** Cleveland gets Bryan Walters(43). Young guy, another one with his first top job. 9 years as an assistant, favoring the short passing game like Page does with an emphasis on WR. At least decent everywhere, good development, discipline, and scouting. Not overly impressive by any stretch, but the Browns could have done worse. A young guy like this is probably a good move for them.

7 total head coaching changes, including three new additions to the fraternity.

** Offensive Coordinator -- We no longer have the option of Langham even if we wanted him; he's working for Meier at Houston. There are a bunch of decent candidates available, but nobody that I'd call good. I end up with K.C. Horenstein, who is 55 and has never been on anyone's staff. Favors the Erhardt-Perkins and aside from having no ability to maintain team discipline whatsoever, he's competent. I definitely would like to upgrade this spot, and must admit in retrospect that keeping Langham was probably a better idea.

Not off to a great start. I note Oakland signing Richie Igcognito as their OC, and can only grumble.

** Defensive Coordinator -- All the top guys available are 3-4 guys, when our players are more fitting for the 4-3. But we've got work to do on the players front anyway. The top choice is clearly Percy Bolerjack(57), who has a 27-23 record as a head coach. Only fair as a scout and motivator, he's great as an interviewer and with young talent and pretty good elsewhere. He'll be good in coaching up any linebackers we can find to fill the void there.

** Assistant Coach -- We can keep Cole Downs around if we want. Could also go with a former player like Ben Roethlisberger to make the fans happy. Doug Free stood out as the best though. He's not great, but he's pretty much decent or a little better everywhere. 46 with only 2 years experience, he's a spread offense fan which is a little different than what Page is going for here. He'll help mostly with the offensive line, giving Bridgewater throwing lanes ... in theory. Should be able to pitch in a little everywhere, which is what I was looking for. A modest upgrade over Downs I think.

** Strength Coordinator -- Jalen Dunlap is another good, if not major, step forward. Above-average in both strength training and conditioning. He's 50, and this is his first job. Welcome to the ranks of NFL coaches, Mr. Dunlap.

So Dunlap and Horenstein are new to this, and Free doesn't have a lot of experience. Bolerjack is the only guy who has been around for a while. We'll soon find out if they can work together or not, but I'm not anticipating any major buzz over most of these hires.

Now, time to turn my attention to the collection of misfits otherwhise known as the Detroit Lions roster.

Brian Swartz · 12-08-2016, 05:02 PM

2030 Initial Roster

Players under contract: 29. There's work to do.
Salary Cap: $121M to work with, $990k in penalties.

Quarterback

It's not going to be Teddy Bridgewater this year; he retired. So did another QB from last year's team. That leaves us with Raul Nunn(26), a solid QB if you're after mobility and the home-run ball. Short passes and screens are foreign languages to him. He's 13-16 with 40 TDs and 27 INTs for his career. Smart and accurate on anything down the field really. A real conflict with Page's short-passing philosophy though. We need to decide whether to try to resign him, since he's a free agent. Nunn was our first-round pick four years ago. Ty Gelis(23) was last year's 7th-rounder. He's a little more adept at the short ball ... but not much. Prefers to bomb away himself, and he's a guy who could surprise but right now he really sucks. Great sense of timing is his best aspect at the moment.

Definitely looks like we need to try to re-sign Nunn, who is from what we can see the best available QB on the market by far. There's not really a reasonable choice in the matter. A long-term solution can come later.

Running Back

Joseph Davis(25) had 1337 yards rushing last year and 9 TDs, with a 4.43 average. The consensus is that he's pretty clearly the best player on this team, and this is a contract year for him. He was selected 7th in the draft three years ago, and while he isn't hard to hit, he has good speed and power, an excellent all-around back.

Ronnie Banks(25) was a second-round pick last season. He's a passable substitute but that's about it, although we still think there may be quite a bit of upside. He's a quality third-down back as a power runner or at times receiver if the defense is asleep, but doesn't do a whole lot else. Three years left on his contract, and he'll hang around for at least part of it to see if anything shakes loose.

Bert Giles(24) was a FA signing last year who is ok at a variety of things, but we should be able to find better. We won't likely be resigning him as there's a lot better out there.

Fullback

Julio Ridenour(30) is an ok backup at best, but he's all we have. The Eagles drafted him in the final round back in '23, and he joined us last season on a two-year deal so there's one left. Pretty good inside runner, decent at picking up the blitz, but his blocking and most everything else really leaves quite a bit to be desired.

Tight End

We've got five that were on the team last year, and only one is for-certain coming back. That's Nick Chapman(22), a third-round pick last year who was a Second Team All-Pro as a rookie. He's not all that good yet, but is solid and should get better ... how much better is a very open question though. Doesn't help a whole lot in the run game, but a valuable receiver. 85 catches, 844 yards and a pair of TDs last year sure showed he can do that. 3 years left on his contract so he'll be around a while.

Brent Harr(26) is actually probably a better overall player. He's another guy we figure to be the best FA at his position, so we definitely want him back. He doesn't have as much pass-catching production for his career as Chapman got his rookie year, but runs decent routes, has great hands, and is quite a good asset as a blocker in the run game. Pretty much is what he is at this point, while Chapman has more upside.

Tyler Reed and Wayne Howard are decent backups who can stay or go; we'll probably resign at least one. Floyd Pool will likely be the same kind of player eventually, but not right now.

Wide Receiver

Three are back for sure, with two FAs. Any one of them could be called the best or worst of the group. There isn't anything better out there to be signed though, so we need to try to bring at least one or two of them back. Decent starter is a good description for their abilities.

The three still on contract for another year are Karl Gayle(26), Larry Winzenfried(27), and Christian Bailey(24). Gayle had 42 receptions last year; Winzenfried just 8, after 39 the season before. Gayle's more reliable and steady, with Winzenfried more of a big-play guy. Bailey is probably the best of the quintent by a hair, but he has problems with drops and disappears on third down. Making big catches over the middle when the defense doesn't know it's coming is his forte.

The others? Bubba Landolt(32) had 73 catches, 790 yards and 5 TDs last year; 39 scores for his career. He's fearless, a good weapon on kickoff returns, and fairly versatile. He was also part of the most recent Dallas championship team, and that's nothing to sneeze at. Caden Beane(26) is outstanding, except for the fact that he can't get open. If he had ever heard of the concept of route-running, he'd be an All-Pro. As it is, he's a guy that impresses you until you see him screw up his cuts.

Looks like we're going to try to resign Landolt, but we'll let someone else deal with the unjustified fail that is Beane.

Offensive Line

C Arturo James(34) is in his 14th season, sixth with Detroit, and is the anchor here. He's been good but not great most of his career, with a 2nd Team All-Pro selection back in '23. Still keeps himself in good shape, and a solid, quality center even in his mid-30s. The tackles are set and an interesting pair. Another guy in the 'solid starter' category is LT Kent Williamson(28), the highest draft pick at #3 overall that the franchise has had in about two decades. That was two years ago. The 6-8 Williamson has disappointed with his physical conditioning some. He's definitely good at protecting the blind side, but only acceptable in the run game. The second-round selection that same year was RT Tanner Farr(25), who has actually turned out to be the better player. Farr became fast friends with the veteran James, and he's become the best lineman on the team. He's good in the run game, above-average in strength and pass-blocking technique. Last year he was a 1st Team All-Pro selection. Farr and Williamson both have two years left on their current contracts, James has one.

The best of the guards also came in that draft two years ago, when apparently it was decided the whole offensive line needed to be remade. 7th-round pick LG Collin Briggs looks to be the best of the bunch. He's a little undersized at 6-3, 295, but is in excellent shape and is a quality, and improving, force as a run blocker. On passing plays though ... watch out. He allowed 10 sacks last year and it wasn't an abberation. RG Nickolas Bardon(25) was taken a round earlier, and he's got more work to do. Physically, he's a complete wimp, which is strange for a lineman but it is what it is. He's just 6-0, but has decent technique and should get quite a bit better in those areas, though there are questions. Shades a bit towards being better in running situations. Both of these gentlemen also have 2-year deals.

T Fredrick Perkins(26) has proven himself nearly useless, and won't be returning. He only appeared in one game last year. There are three quality backups though. C Ricardo Whetstone(26) is still improving and could become a marginal starter. He thinks a bit more of himself though and is a bit aggravated at playing behind James. It's a contract year for him, so who knows whether he sticks around. G Mackenzie Stewart(34) is a free agent, but actually better than Bardon at this point in time and would definitely be worth resigning. Solid except for being weak in the passing game. T Terrance Nickles(33) is a fine run blocker but useless on passing plays, so despite his impressive size(6-7, 336) he's probably played his last game for the Lions.

Kicker/Punter

P Mitchell Wagner(24) has a strong, accurate leg and is as good as any of the other FA possibilities. He was undrafted last year, and was a good pickup. K Chandler Catanzaro(39) was let go by the Colts a couple years ago, and showed he's not done with a 32 of 36 showing, including 11 FGs from 40+ last season. Doesn't have a big leg anymore, but is extremely accurate and reliable. Both are free agents and would be as good as any options out there.

Defensive Line

DE Alex Covington(27) was a big free-agent pickup last year after New Jersey decided they didn't need him anymore. He's a household name as the best player on the defensive side of the ball, though his 5 sacks last year were a far cry from the 12.5 he produced for the Jets the year before. Covington's in the second year of a five-year deal for close to $60 million, so he's definitely a long-term investment. A smart player who is more about technique than physical prowess, Covington is capable of having a significant impact against both the run and the pass. The 3-4 is a good fit for him.

Unfortunately, Covington is the only quality lineman that is assured of returning. DE Rico McCullough(22) figures to be a decent backup eventually, but not even that yet. DE Shaun Mahoney(22) is more talented, but he's not ready for more than a backup role right now and pass rush technique is a real issue ... probably why he was only given a 1-year deal last season. . DE Pete Vardaro(27) has had 8 sacks each of the past two years. He's not nearly as smart a player as Covington, but is actually slightly more gifted physically. Vardaro actually would probably be better served as a linebacker, but that would leave a hole that would need to be filled either way. DT Abel Kirchoff(28) is a hard-hitting pass rusher who can also contribute against the run, and DT Harold Lowe(26) has size at 6-7, but not the strength to go with it. He's incredibly smart though and has good technique, and will eventually be a regular starter somewhere I think. He's ready for that. DT Harold Shepard(26) is a decent reserve due to his skills in run defense. DT Sam Marian(24) will probably be moved to a reserve linebacker role; he's basically an emergency guy in either case.

In any case, there's some big decisions to be made here. Covington needs some help, and I've got to decide who he'll get it from.

Linebackers

Here things are a little more set. There isn't as much talent, but the best of what's there is contracted for the coming season. MLB Bruce Small(26) led the team with 96 tackles two years ago, and might have again apart from an elbow injury last season. He's not a blitzer, or all that smart, but he can cover fairly well and plug the necessary holes against the run. SLB Harris Boult(31) is another fairly stupid player. He has a wider range of abilities but isn't quite as good overall. Regardless, Small and Boult are the sure things as decent starters here.

Two others that would properly fit in the backup category are returning. T.J. Atkins(29) is solid against the run, and Jace Ogden(24) is more of a cover linebacker. One FA is a bit better than either; Charles Watt(30). Watt's not much of a hitter and can't cover anyone, but has pretty good pass rush technique and is probably the best in terms of run defense instincts among the linebacker corps. Then there's Kerry Coleman(24), who went undrafted and was picked up last year. Right now it doesn't look like he'll be quite good enough to keep around, but it's also really too early to tell with him. Looks like the kind of guy we might want to resign to fill up our final spots just in case something shakes loose.

I'll probably be looking to resign Watt here, but there are some available players out there that would be at least a small upgrade over the other guys. This is also a position I'm definitely going to be looking at in the draft.

Secondary

We've got a couple of solid but not more cornerbacks. Roman Hartl(31) is a smart veteran, opportunistic and good in man coverage. Maxwell Oliver(26) has done quite well for a 7th-round pick, he's more balanced. Already has more interceptions(11-7) but is also is a hard-hitting run supporter. The nickel guy is Nickolas Berggren(24), a well-liked press corner type who is ok but still improving. Jay Berkowich(27) is barely adequate, mostly because he can't cover anyone; quite good against the run but that's it. Frankly I'd like to replace him if we have the opportunity.

Veteran Lester Matthews(33) is a press corner who has been a Lion his whole career, notching 10 interceptions in 132 games. It seems clear that he's done though.

At safety, all three players are coming back so things look pretty set there unless we can upgrade. SS Eugene Walley(28) might be the best of the secondary players. 5 picks for him last year, and while he often gets caught out of position he's quite solid when that isn't the case. FS Rico Campos(25) on the other hand makes almost no mental mistakes, vital at his position. A good cover guy, and middling or a hair below in other regards except for being a bit weak in supporting against the run. Backup Braxton Siders(23) is a weak point. The coaches just don't think he has much hope of getting better, and he's not terrible ... just not quite good enough. Add to that the fact that he wants to be playing more, and it seems unlikely Siders finishes out the remaining two years on his contract.

Brian Swartz · 12-09-2016, 12:22 AM

Team-Building Philosophy

This is probably a good point to talk about this a bit before I get into signing players. All other things being equal, my aim is to win in the trenches. Being able to control the line of scrimmage makes things easier on everybody else. Having HOF-worthy playmakers is the quickest path to a dynasty, but it's also a very rare thing to find. So linemen on both sides of the ball will be most valued, esp. offensively as the other team can't score if we don't let them on the field. A couple of the recently-hired coaches fit that bill, but DC Bolerjack loves his linebackers and HC Page his tight ends, so that'll fit in as well. We're going to need decent quality wideouts to make a short passing game work as well. There's no point in giving a coach players that can't execute his gameplan.

Stadium Info

Fan loyalty is high, and Ford Field is now entering it's 29th year. People are just starting to talk about the possibility of a new stadium, but that's not coming anytime soon. A modest recommended price increase will do. We're just above the league average which is a fine place to be. Attendance last year was 61.5k out of capacity of 65k. Facilities are still in good shape, except for the parking lot which needs quite a bit of attention.

Draft Preview

We've got one pick each round, 19th in the 1st. Utah State QB Darnell Tribble appears to be the big prize, with big things also expected of Texas Tech's DE Joey Hennessee. OT Bucky Onnen of San Jose State and DT Brendan Dritlein from Iowa State figure to do well also. We'll be spending our interviews on players more likely to fall to us.

Free Agent Priorities

From most important to least.

** QB Raul Nunn. It'll be a disaster if we let him get away.
** TE Brent Harr, DE Pete Vardaro, DT Abel Kirchoff
** DT Harold Lowe
** P Mitchell Wagner, K Chandler Catanzaro, LB Charles Watt, DE Shaun Mahoney
** WR Bubba Landolt, G Mackenzie Stewart

Nobody other than possibly Davis is worth franchising, and I don't have to worry about that until later.

Brian Swartz · 12-09-2016, 12:31 AM

Free Agency

Starting Offers

** QB Raul Nunn -- Wants a quick deal, and not very happy with being benched last year in favor of Bridgewater. Still, he asks for $12.9M over three years. With other average quarterbacks making as much as that or more in a single season(Marcus Mariota, for example), that seems reasonable to me. I don't want to keep him longer than that as we're definitely going to be looking for a new, more suitable option, but we can't afford someone else taking him so I bump the total up to $14.7M. Davis likes the idea of bringing Nunn back, but we had to do it anyway.

** TE Brent Harr -- 3 years, $7.82M is a reasonable request. No reason to quibble.

** DE Pete Vardaro -- 2 years, $5.89M. I'd like a longer deal but we can handle that possibility later.

** DT Abel Kirchoff -- 4 years, $25.5M. That's not cheap, but he's one of the best FAs this year and I don't want him leaving so I up it a bit to $27M.

** DT Harold Lowe -- 3 years, $7.62M

** P Francisco Hardy is a significant improvement over Wagner, and one of the top handful in the league. He wants $24.9M over five years, which is somewhat more than he's worth. If Wagner wasn't willing to return for a fraction of the price(2 years, $2.08M) without even testing the market I would have seriously considered it.

** K Chandler Catanzaro wasn't the only option, but the other ones weren't good enough to tempt me. Wants 1 year, $4.5M. It's more than he's worth, I'd say. I reduce the signing bonus to offer him 4 flat. Even that's too high, but he won't even consider it. Screw it. It's only one year, and we've got tons of cap room. Twerp probably knows it.

** LB Charles Watt -- 2 years, $4.72M. A couple of the younger players don't care for his 'veteran leadership'. The haven't earned the right to dictate such things, and I submit the offer anyway.

** DE Shaun Mahoney -- 3 years, $6.9M. Signs immediately.

** WR Bubba Landolt -- Receivers aren't cheap. He wants a 3-year deal, but at 32 I don't want to make that commitment to him. He's not willing to budge on the 3-year demand, so we're at an impasse. Landolt isn't good enough to make me change my mind yet, and word is he plans to wait a few weeks before making up his mind. We'll see who else jumps in.

** G Mackenzie Stewart -- 1 year, $2.67M. That works for a quality backup.

That's all of the resigning stuff. Who's out there that we want to take a run at?

** FB Terrance Lafountain is a fine one, released by Washington. Good or better blocker and quality outlet as a third-down pass-catcher. He wants to hang out a while and sign late in the process; current ask is 3 years, $10.6M. Almost twice as much as any fullback in the league is currently making. Still might well be worth it, but we'll wait and see if his demands come down.

** FS Ray Joseph would be a significant upgrade over Campos. He's a veteran, and is asking for a relative pittance ... but Eugene Walley doesn't want to play alongside him which could be an issue. I decide to trust him, and cancel the deal.

** WR Roosevelt Delery would give us everything Landolt would, and probably a small upgrade, for less money. Also 32, he's in decline but is willing to sign for two years. A couple seasons ago he had 92 catches and 1100 yards for the Eagles; 73 last year. 42 career TDs. For 2 years, $8.54M, a hair over his request, I'll definitely bite. Landolt doesn't want him around ... wouldn't be his problem, would it. Nunn's excited about the possibility, and even though a couple others aren't fans that's enough for me.

** OG Hugh Boult has bounced around various teams, but he's a quality veteran who can produce and would add another solid starter to the line. With the young but not-quite-there guards we have, I offer him the 3 years, $7.91M he wants. Boult's going to wait a while so we'll see if anyone matches.

** DT Todd Anderton is a pretty good, versatile player who is equally adept against the run or pass. He'd add some quality but more importantly versatility. Wants to get paid(3 years, 27.8M.) It's farily high, so I tell him we'll go with 24.3M and see what he says. Not willing to consider it right now. He's not super-impatient so we'll see if he comes down.

** LB Bert Delgado is a smart veteran who would definitely fill a need for us. Wants an arm and a leg though. We'll wait him out a bit.

That's it. Time to see how everyone reacts to our proposed deals.

** Week 3 -- Nunn accepts our offer, which is huge ... we've got our quarterback for the year. He's the only one who does though. FS Ray Joseph heads to Green Bay. Super. Now we get to play against him. RB Shannon Kelley, a former first-round Detroit pick who had 1132 and 7 TDs for Carolina last year, heads to the Vikings. The North seems to be loading up here, I don't like the looks of that. We're the offer to beat on all of the other submissions so far, and the other players we're interested in haven't budged yet.

** Week 4 -- DT Todd Anderton signs with the Packers. Sigh. Gave him even more than he wanted(3 years, $32.4M). I don't think he's worth that price, but maybe we'll find out this year. Ranked as the top FA this year, so maybe I missed the boat there ... but he's getting paid like a Top 10 DT and he's just not IMO. Vardaro and Kirchoff sign our offers so it's not like we're getting left out in the cold. Make Delgado an offer but he tells us where to shove it.

** Week 5 -- RB Gavin Gearhardt(1050 yards, 6 TDs for Tampa Bay) heads to Seattle. Bert Delgado takes way too much money from San Diego. DE J.J Nichols(7.5 sacks last year, 46.5 career) is off to Buffalo from New England. LB Jerald Cote(106 tackles last year for Jacksonville) has had four teams back up the money truck to his door and still hasn't decided who he'll play for.

We get WR Roosevelt Delery, so no need for Landolt. Still waiting on the others to make up their minds. I'm either going to be the smart GM who didn't blow his wad on absurd offers, or the stupid penny-pincher. We'll see. LB Lincoln Adams looks like a good value, 3 years, 20M we offer. Does some of everything.

** Week 6 -- Cote's off to Houston, 26M over 2 years. He'll suffer terribly. The Texans also bring in quality veteran safety Max Handy, and a lot of the mid-level guys are starting to sign. Nothing for us. Lafountain's demands are now down to being half as ridiculous as they were before.

** Week 7 -- G Mackenzie Schwartz and DT Harold Lowe enhance our depth as they commit. WR Bubba Landolt gets his three years from the Saints. Not thrilled to see him go, but the price was simply too high. The board exploded with activity this week as over a dozen ranked FAs inked deals, a couple of dozen others as well. At this point there aren't many playes that jump out.

** Week 8 -- LB Charles Watt is the latest to join next year's roster. WR Caden Beane officially leaves for New York. Not sad to see WR Hardy Lake(9 TDs for the Bears last year) leave the division for Arizona. P Francisco Hardy gets 5 years, 23M to kick for the LA Rams. I offer to make LaFountain the highest-paid FB in the league by about 15% and he won't even consider the offer. Ok then. Nobody else has matched his price yet either.

** Week 9 -- We get LB Lincoln Adams, a nice addition. G Hugh Boult as well. LaFountain gets a ridiculous amount of money(9.2M, 3 years) from Washington, who has been quite active this year. He's making just over 2M next year; no other fullback is at 1.5 or more, and a few are better players. LB Moe Henderson(92 tackles for Carolina) is off to Denver.

** Week 10 -- K Chandler Catanzaro finally inks his overpriced deal, having figured out nobody else will best it.

** Week 11 -- TE Brent Harr is our final signing. Took forever, but nobody else got in the act. Probably could have had him cheaper, but whatever. OT Terrance Nickles is off to Seattle for pretty cheap. He's not worth much at this point.

That's it.

Brian Swartz · 12-10-2016, 09:00 PM

We've now got 42 players on contract. Add in 7 draftees and we'll be sitting fairly good.

Offensive needs: FB, backup QB, backup RB, 1 or 2 TEs

Defensive needs: depth everywhere, another LB preferably a WLB.

2030 NFL DRAFT

1. Buffalo -- QB Darnell Tribble. Obvious pick is obvious.

2. Atlanta -- QB Harris Asomugha(Colgate). Didn't see that one coming. They insist his upside is as good as Tribble's. We'll see.

3. Cleveland -- QB Les Fedo(Texas Southern). It's a trend. Looks like a bust who'll never be good enough to be a regular starter.

4. Miami -- QB Glenn Strickland(Army). Good grief. There are other positions. Better pick than Fedo, but still a reach.

5. Oakland -- RB Travis Wolfsmith(Auburn). Could be a huge steal here. The early reviews say Wolfsmith was highly undervalued and is a first-year impact player.

6. Houston -- OT Bucky Onnen(San Jose State). Thought he'd go a bit earlier, but definitely the best blocker in the draft. Reports are the Texans are very happy and think they have a future All-Pro.

7. Tampa Bay -- DE Bernard Henry. Not even one of the top projected DEs, but he might surprise.

8. San Francisco -- OT Rod Watkins(Michigan State). Project who could be great, or could be a dud. Risky.

9. Indianapolis -- TE Hugh Vautour(Oregon State). Should contribute right away, but there'll probably be some eventually buyer's remorse here.

10. Tennessee -- WR Weston Bloomgarden(Arizona State). Another guy who really could be a steal. Love the look of him at this point.

19. Detroit -- I really had no choice here. The #2 player on the pre-draft boards was still around, DE Joey Hennesee(6-4, 287, Texas Tech). There were conditioning questions but he did well at the combine, displayed a positive attitude and intelligence, and checks all the boxes really. Consensus was that we'd just found our future defensive linchpin, or at least one of them.

2nd Round -- We went for need here, taking OLB Jameson Favre(West Virginia). Pretty good upside and excellent pass rush techinque, no slouch in the run game either. Middling expectations here; scouts say he projects to be of quality starter caliber, similar to the best of our current LBs.

3rd round -- Thought about a tackle here, or also by far the best FB left, Clay Snyder. Looked like all of those players will still likely be around though if we waited a round. All of the remaining quarterbacks were of the 'bombs away' variety and we don't really want that. In the end I decided to keep going with defense and DE Willie Irvin(California). He was projected to go in the middle of the first round and is hte only player left that we interviewed. Our evaluation was that he was highly underrated, which makes sense because the consensus of many is that he royally sucked. Smart, looks like a good fit with the players we already have ... and with the likelihood of moving Vardaro to linebacker, we'll have room for another guy at this position.

4th round -- Still a number of decent OTs on the board, but I was wrong about Snyder; Cleveland nabbed him. Opportunity lost there probably. Ended up taking C Connor Grier(Memphis). Like him the best by far of the remaining offensive linemen. He's a project to be sure, but still looked like the best option.

5th Round -- Tough call here, but OT Roger Kelly(Memphis, 6-0, 309) was picked. Looks like the most ready of the available players, and was as good as any of them according to the scouts. Could be great, could be a total bust. Consensus puts him somewhere in the middle of that right now.

6th Round -- TE Ellis Shumway(Illinois) jumped out due to potential upside. 6-5, 273, not very strong but pretty good combine results, smart, looks like he contribute in multiple ways. Scout verdict is that he's useless now but might become decent.

7th Round -- QB Alejandro Fitzgerald(Lousiana State). Project who looks to be as close to a sure thing as there is. The hope is he'll be the long-term backup ... we're definitely still looking for the starter of the future.

Early Take -- We get a B grade, middle of the pack. New England topped out with an A+, New York was last with a C-. In the NFC North, Green Bay did well with an A-, Chicago got a B+, and Minnesota a C+. So by that count we were third out of four. I'm hoping that's not accurate.

Post-draft we have 49 players under contract, and still a mountain of salary cap room($72M plus). I'd like to still sign a backup RB, backup QB for this year, another TE, another CB, and a replacement FB.

Brian Swartz · 12-10-2016, 09:07 PM

Suspensions

Miami QB Matthew Whalen has been suspended for this year. He frankly isn't worthy of being more than a subpar backup, but they don't have a very good situation over there, and the Dolphins were considering him as a possible starter so it's definitely a blow. Buffalo OT Kennedy Hoffman was also suspended, and that's a big one. He's one of the strongest players in the league, and a good and still improving pass-blocker, one of two high-quality offensive linemen the Bills have. Both were cited for personal conduct policy violations.

Trade Offers

** Green Bay offers FS Derrick Kniker(25) and a 4th-round pick next year for CB Maxwell Oliver. Tough call. Oliver would be a starter for us and is a somewhat better player, but he's really not much of a cover guy and I did want a new backup safety. I decide to pull the trigger on this one.

** Los Angeles wants LB Bruce Small for a third-round selection. Not interested there ... I don't have linebackers to spare.

So now I'm looking for two corners.

Late Free Agency

Here's who the Lions like out of what's left:

** QB Sean Newman(31) -- Serviceable backup quality, last played for Seattle in '28, 5-7 with 3 of the victories via 4th-Q comeback. Looks to be the best option by far. 2 years, $2.23M.

** RB Isaac Barrow(33) -- Definitely a short-term solution due to his age. Barrow is still smart and versatile with power and speed, approaching 8000 career yards and has 63 rushing TDs. Jacksonville for most of his career, then Arizona. Nunn doesn't want him here though. Moron. Not going to irritate our QB over a backup though.

** RB Deron Page(31) -- 1 year, $1.4M. A less prolific career, but Page has speed, finesse, and the ability to get to the sticks on third down. He'll do.

** FB Norman Wright(29) -- The only choice really as he's still improving. He'd upgrade this position from a disaster(our #2 need according to the staff) to merely inadequate, and could yet become a serviceable starter. Run blocking and the occasional third-down carry are expected to be his roles, though he could surprise with the occasional reception also. 2 years, $2.17M.

** TE Ernie Snodgrass(27) was another clear call. 75 receptions for Washington last year; tough and runs great routes. Not the best blocker in the world though. Wants a long-term deal, and a fair amount more than he's worth. Easy to see why the Redskins cut him ... but Page does love his tight ends, and it's not like we don't have the money. 5 years, $31.6M.

** CB Ronnie Copeland(27) -- Best cover guy we can find, 1 year, $980k.

** CB Amari Harding(27) -- 2 years, 3.48M. More of a zone player but you take what you can get.

SS Braxton Siders is now officially gone. We'll have to make one more cut probably but I'm not sure who that'll be.

Week 2 -- FB Norman Wright and CB Amari Harding sign. FB Julio Ridenour is our second cut ... I don't see any use for him now .

Week 3 -- CB Ronnie Copeland signs. RB Deron Paige goes to Carolina for the same money we offered him. QB Sean Newman's been offered 2 years, $2.24M by Houston ... literally 10k more than we did. I up our offer to 3M even. RB Brett Reese is our next option. 2 years, $2M ... he's averaged 4.5 yards a carry last couple of seasons. Can't do much else, but we just want someone to handle the load if Davis goes down.

Week 4 -- QB Sean Newman, RB Brett Reese, and TE Ernie Snodgrass all sign. That's 53. We're done here.

Cap number is still very high, at 65.3M remaining. Nobody is as high as 30M anywhere else in the league.

Contract Negotiations

The top issue to deal with was that of RB Joseph Davis, in the final year of his rookie contract. He wants $90M over 5 years. That's a lot of money, but he's worth it. He has speed, power, intelligence, a good attitude, and is a receiving threat as well. Over 1700 yards from scrimmage last year, and the coaches say that he's not the kind of guy who is at all likely to see his productivity take a dive. The requested deal would make him one of the highest-paid backs in the NFL ... but he's worth it. There's always some concern and hesitation when shelling out this kind of cash, but he's about as good and as important of an investment in there is. I agree to his terms with no haggling. If we wait until next year ... he's a lot more loyal to winning than he is the Lions, and those two terms are not exactly synonymous. Not a risk I'm willing to take.

Davis is the only key player whose contract is up at the end of the season. We do have several veterans who it would be foolhardy to extend without seeing how much they still have left to give; K Chandler Catanzaro, C Arturo James, G Mackenzie Stewart, and LS Ethan Madison. A few others haven't demonstrated enough to warrant a new deal yet; LB T.J. Atkins, C Ricardo Whetstone, DT Sam Marian, and CB Ronnie Copeland.

The final category is the toughest to decide on. A group of four players who are starters or competing for such a spot. Three wideouts are on that list; Larry Winzenfried, Karl Gayle, and Christian Bailey. FS Rico Campos is also in that boat. All are better than any free-agent we could replace them with, but not all that much better.

Gayle's demands are pretty high IMO. Just because we have the money doesn't mean we should spend it, and I'm not totally sold on Winzenfried. Bailey gets what he wants(4 years, $24M) as does Campos(3 years, $11.6M). That guarantees at least two quality receivers coming back next year(Delery and Bailey). We're now down to just under $50M in cap room to spare, and will have a little more than that but not much next season. I'm happy with where things sit.

Training Camp

Things got a little interesting when figuring out who's going to play where in the defensive front. Turns out that Pete Vardaro isn't really going to fit in a switch to linebacker due to a complete lack of coverage skills. This leaves us with a glut of defensive ends(six), and a high likelihood that we're going to have players ticked off about playing time. Eventually figured out how we're going to approach it, I still think we're a little weak at one of the linebacker spots but it is what it is.

Brian Swartz · 12-12-2016, 06:38 PM

** Season Ticket Sales: 45,400.

Preseason

Week 2: New England @ Detroit

One never puts much stock in pre-season games, but you can learn a few things. Our first scoring drive ended in a 23-yard FG by Catanzaro after a 1st and goal at the 1. Davis lost a yard, then a pass to Chapman lost four yards, then they broke up a swing pass ... yeah. A pair of TD runs by Davis put us in front 17-7 at the half, and the same count in the second half gave us a 34-14 win. 216 rushing yards was the key here.

C Arturo James, G Hugh Boult, and CB Ronnie Copeland will take next week off with minor injuries.

Week 3: Detroit @ San Diego

The Chargers are AFC Champions two years running. They held a 14-13 halftime edge, with an impressive drive early and late while we controlled the interim. Joseph Davis rushed for 75, while Hugh Harding was 14 of 17 for 157 passing yards for the Chargers. A heck of a game there. Harding comes out in the second half, but our quarterback Raul Nunn stays in and directs back-to-back touchown drives, only to watch our defense crumble and lose a 30-14 fourth-quarter lead. Backup QB Roger Von Wyss tormented our attempts to stop them, and then Tony Marshall ran 22 yards for the game-winner in a 37-30 overtime loss. It would be hard for me to be more disgusted after a pre-season game than I am right now. 30 of 37 passing for the Chargers.

Winzenfried is a little banged up, and it's pretty clear to me that we need a fifth WR. Jaylen Harlen(27), who has worn out his welcome in Green Bay, will fill that role.

Week 4: Miami @ Detroit

Nunn had his first interception of the pre-season early on, and the Dolphins jumped out to an early lead. After a Davis TD, S Eugene Walley returned the favor for us ... only to have Nunn throw another pick in the red zone! Dude, seriously, get a grip. With Nunn already out of the game, we still manage a 14-13 halftime lead. They got the only score of the second half though, and handed us a 20-14 defeat.

Week 5: Detroit @ Kansas City

The Chiefs drive the length of the field and score on their opening possession, but Detroit rallies. Strange goal-line sequence early in the second quarter with KC continually stopping the Lions for a loss, only to have a couple of penalties give them new life. Finally we punch it in to take the lead. The teams combine to complete 22 of the first 24 passes, many of them for significant yardage. Defense pretty much doesn't exist. 20-17 Detroit at the half. Wet conditions or no, the Lions fumble it away three times in the second half and two lead to Kansas City scores. Newman directs two scoring drives in the 4th when it looked to be over, a reversal of the San Diego game and we go to overtime. LB Jace Ogden makes an interception in Chiefs territory, leading to game-winning field goal in a wild 41-38 win.

Brian Swartz · 12-13-2016, 12:43 PM

Green Page

DE Joey Hennesee and DE Willie Irvin feature 3rd and 4th here. Interestingly the top two are also defensive ends: Junior Velasquez(Tennessee) and Bernard Henry of Tampa Bay. Tennessee has three players on this list. Top pick QB Bernard Tribble is only 8th. It's far too early to claim him as a bust, but there are whispers ...

Grey Sheet

Kirchoff, Vardaro, and Nunn were all ranked highly and we resigned them, though we missed out on #1 Todd Anderton. #23 Roosevelt Delery and #42 Lincoln Adams are mentioned as our top signings. Departed WRs Bubba Landolt(#50) and Caden Beane(#57) are the only ranked players lost. I'm definitely calling this a win overall.

** Fastest Man -- WR Blaine Dixon(Buffalo), 4.25. Brady Helms(Minnesota) and James Morton(Washington) come in at 4.28
** Strongest man -- DT Bryce Tillery(Carolina) & OT Steven Schultz(Cleveland) both have 43. Several players managed a 42.
** Most Athletic -- WR Anthony Langlois(Atlanta) is tops with 89. RB Dixon Bentsen(Jacksonville), WR Brady Helms(Minnesota), and WR Andy Flemons(New York) all recorded an 88.

Regular Season Outlook

Now it's time for the games that count, and we've learned some more about this Lions team. Primarily to always expect the unexpected.

QB -- The backup situation doesn't look as good as we hoped. Despite the fine performance against Kansas City, Sean Newman appears to be a stopgap option at best. Ty Gelis has improved a bit but not nearly enough, and rookie Alejandro Fitzgerald's outlook has gotten worse; he's probably not ever going to be good enough to make the grade. If Nunn doesn't play well or stay healthy, we're in trouble.

RB -- Joseph Davis looks like the best back in the league. Brett Reese is a competent backup.

FB -- Norman Wright isn't quite as good as we hoped, but he'll do ok.

TE -- Brent Harr will miss the first few weeks with a calf strain. Nick Chapman still has the best potential, but both he and Ernie Snodgrass are far better pass-catchers than they are blockers.

WR -- Nothing really is new here. Delery, Gayle, Winzenfried, and Bailey are all capable; none are mokre than that.

OL -- C Arturo James still is having a few issues with a knee sprain but he'll play in our opener. Seems like half of the good running plays were had were facilitated by G Collin Briggs. T Tanner Farr has really established himself as the best of this group by a considerable margin.

K/P -- P Mitchell Wagner is pretty much what we thought he was. K Chandler Catanzaro has regressed to the point where all he really has is his accuracy, but he was perfect in the preseason.

DL -- Alexis Covington is even better than we thought, ready to come into his own as the defensive star we're paying him to be. Top draft pick Joey Hennessee is solid right now, and may even be a little better than Covington in time. Fellow rookie Willie Irvin is looking nearly as good, and Pete Vardaro continues to play reasonably well. Defensive end has a wealth of talent. Abel Kirchoff and Harold Lowe look basically interchangeable as tackle, with Lowe improving and Kirchoff regressing.

LB -- Bruce Small has come into his own as the leader of this group ... and then suffered a broken fibula in the second quarter of our last game. He's out for the first half of the year now. Aside from Lincoln Adams, the rest appear to be not quite as good as we thought. I expect this to be an aspect of the team that struggles.

Sec -- CB Roman Hartl looks almost good enough to be a #1 corner, and he'll have to play through a groin injury also suffered against the Chiefs. Nickolas Berggren has shown unexpected improvement as the other corner, and looks like he has more upside than expected, but he's still only a passable starter at best.

No real change at safety, with Eugene Walley still headlining that group.

Summary

** Quarterback -- Below Average
** Running Backs -- Davis is the best, a hair below average at the fullback spot
** Receivers -- Average or just below on tight ends, but our receivers are poor, not good enough to cut it.
** Offensive Line -- One of the better groups of tackles around, but pretty poor at the internal center and guard spots
** Kicker/Punter -- Punting's definitely a strength, roughly 5th or so; Kicking roughly average.
** Defensive Line -- The ends are very good, but poor tackles. I don't think they're that bad, but that's the verdict.
** Linebackers -- Below average in the middle, pretty bad on the outside
** Secondary -- Below average to poor across all positions

Davis will draw a lot of attention, and there's just enough weapons for us to be successful putting points on the board. Weaknesses at linebacker and in the secondary, particularly without Small, are going to make things difficult on defense. A mediocre team with a lot of fairly high-scoring games appears to be what we have here. There's talent, just not enough of it. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Power Ratings -- 29th out of 32. Eeek. Arizona is far ahead of the rest of the league according to this, with Chicago, Baltimore, Washington, and Jacksonville following. Minnesota is 31st, so we still aren't last in the NFC North.

Cohesion -- We're decent here in Passing, but dead last in Offensive Line. Defensive Front and Secondary are near the bottom as well.

One last-minute roster change as we were at 54 players. Really came down to the fact that we just have too many defensive ends. Our fourth-round pick a year ago, Rico McCullough, just doesn't have a spot here anymore. He's not good enough to contribute now, isn't a guy who is expected to get a ton better, and ceiling appears to be backup quality. Too many much better players ahead of him, so he's gone.

Brian Swartz · 12-13-2016, 03:08 PM

Week 1: Detroit @ Chicago
Line: Bears by 14
Injuries: TE Brent Harr(Strained Calf), LB Bruce Small(Broken Fibula) are out. C James Arturo(Probable - Spraind Knee) and CB Roman Hartl(Questionable - Pulled Groin) will play, CB Amari Harding(Probable - Shoulder Tendinitis) will not.

Preview

Only Arizona is favored by more(17) this week, while the best game looks to be two-time defending AFC Champs San Diego visiting Oakland; the Raiders are favored by a single point in that one.

Chicago is a legitimate title contender this year and the favorite in the NFC North. The reason for that is they have arguably the finest collection of weapons on offense in the NFL. QB J.T. Meehan had 33 TDs, 7 INTs last year with 3600 yds and a 109 rating. He's become the consensus top quarterback in the game today. RB Moe Riddols is as good as anyone not named Davis at that spot. He only gets about 12-13 carries a game instead of the 16-18 he'd get on many teams, but still rushed for nearly a thousand yards each of the past two seasons with 4.75 ypc in '29. WR Carter Ritter is top pass-catcher and an outstanding one, 1093 yards, 76 receptions and 11 TDs last year. Topping it all off, the line is one of the best in the business, with T Reuben Long one of the top five players, regardless of position, in the league. The whole group is of pretty good quality though.

Defensively, the Bears aren't nearly as scary. They have a solid but not better defensive line. The linebacking corps is even worse than ours, and the secondary is of similar quality. We should be able to move the ball. But slowing down Chicago looks to be nearly an impossible task. We're definitely up against it here.

** We drive it 58 yards in 12 plays, 6:32 for the opening possession before settling for a field goal. Started off great but had some miscues in the running game that forced us into third-and-long in their territory. Converted one of them, but were a couple yards short on the last one. Nunn was 4 of 5 for 27 yards, pretty good work. Detroit 3, Chicago 0(8:28 1Q) on a 34-yd kick by Chandler Catanzaro.

** Chicago strikes back, going 75 yards in 9 plays without facing a third down once. Three big gainers when we had the receiver doubled. Even a holding penalty was just a temporary setback for the Bears. Meehan takes it in himself from 3 yards out. Chicago 7, Detroit 3(4:04 1Q).

** Another promising drive stalls thanks to Chicago DE Dominique Middleton. He pressures Nunn into an errant second-down throw, then sniffs out a third-down screen for no gain. The ever-accurate Catanzaro just misses right from 45 yards out.

** A second holding penalty on the Bears is more fruitful. On third-and-3, Hennessee gets enough pressure to force Meehan's first incompletion.

** Another long drive, 83 yards in 12 plays, ends with a 1-yd toss from Nunn to Ernie Snodgrass for a go-ahead score and our first TD of the season! Several running plays with mixed success, but the key one was near midfield. Middleton brought pressure again, but Nunn got away from him and got the pass out to Karl Gayle, who turned a 5-yard gain into 38. Detroit 10, Chicago 7(7:37 2Q).

** After a Bears 3-and-out, we go for it on 4th-and-1 near midfield ... and Reese loses a yard on the run. Several plays later, Meehan finds Tyler for a 20-yard TD, despite pressure from Hennessee. Chicago 14, Detroit 10(2:25 2Q)

** Davis turns a dump-off pass into a 37-yard gain, and eventually we take advantage with a 30-yd boot from Catanzaro(Chicago 14, Detroit 13)(0:03 2Q).

At the half we have a 291-159 yards advantage, yet trail due to the failed 4th-down play and a missed field goal, along with getting only one TD from four good drives. A muted day so for for Davis(10 carries, 39 yds). Nunn is 18 of 25 for 204 and the one score, Meehan 7 of 11 for 108. Definitely doing better than expected, but we should be ahead. The big shocker elsewhere is Seattle winning at Arizona 24-6 so far; the Cardinals are the prohibitive favorite to win the title this year, but are not looking the part.

** Three-and-out again for Chicago. They help us move down the field with a penalty, but a holding call on Davis keeps us from scoring.

** We couldn't do anything on the next drive. Eventually, Meehan found star wideout Carter Ritter against double coverage in the endzone for a 7-yard score. Chicago 21, Detroit 13(5:02 3Q)

** Roosevelt Delery brings back the ensuing kickoff 99 yards, and we're right back in it!Chicago 21, Detroit 20(4:46 3Q)

** Chicago gets moving again, but they stall on the Lions side of the field. Jorge Rice nails one from 48 yards to extend their lead. Chicago 24, Detroit 20(1:10 3Q)

** Another long drive ends in some frustration as our red zone offense is pitiful. Davis loses 6 on first and goal from the 9, then Nunn misfires badly twice in a row. Catanzaro makes from 32 to at least give us the three points. Chicago 24, Detroit 23(9:20 4Q)

** A big sack by LB Charles Watt, the first of the game either direction, forces a punt. We get it back on our 12 with 6:20 left. Three and out, tried to go deep to Chapman right away but it didn't work.

** Ritter returns the punt to midfield for the Bears. Riddols breaks off a 26-yard run, but we stop them inside the 10. A short kick by Jorge Rice is good. Chicago 27, Detroit 23(2:02 4Q).

** So it's down to one final drive, we need a touchdown to win it. After a third-down sack by S Russell Fulcher(Davis' blocking responsibility) we were in trouble, but Gayle turns nothing into 19 yards and a first down at our 45. A screen to Delery gets 20 more, but we're running out of time. Nunn takes a desperation shot to Chapman, overthrows it badly, and WR Christian Bailey gets injured in the scrum.

Final Score: Chicago 27, Detroit 23. Better than we were expected to do, but not good enough. Joseph Davis(17 carries, 42 yards) was a total non-factor in the second half. Raul Nunn(33-48, 360, TD) cooled off after a fast start. We hold the Bears without a third-down conversion(0-6), and outgain them 447-343, but still lose. Missed FG, 4th-down conversion, but also we couldn't put the ball in the end zone.

Top Recievers: TE Ernie Snodgrass(11-81, TD); Karl Gayle(7-48); Christian Bailey(7-56); Roosevelt Delery(4-64)
Rushing: Davis(17-42), Nunn(5-24)
Defense: S Eugene Walley(10 tackles, 1 ast); ILB Lincoln Adams(6 tkl, 2 ast); OLB Charles Watt(3 tkl, 1 ast, 1 sack). Watt had our only sack, with Covington and Hennessee getting one hurry and one knockdown each. Walley also had 2 of our 3 passes defensed.
Blocking: 4 key blocks for G Collin Briggs, 3 for C Arturo James. Nobody else had more than 1.

Only three players got as many carries as Davis did in the first week and produced less. Green Bay's Lamar Meyer had 182 in their 31-10 win over Minnesota; rookie Travis Wolfsmith(116) was among five others to reach the century mark. Davis is 27th in rushing yards and is getting paid to do a lot more than that. He also had the most screwups(7 in 67 plays) among the offensive players. There were quite a few on the defensive side, and many of them by our best players. Too early to draw any firm conclusions obviously, but I'll keep an eye on this and probably do an aggregate grouping.

Pete Vardaro isn't happy about only getting 7 plays of action; he thinks he's good enough not to be a backup. He's not wrong. With Covington on one side and rookie Joey Hennessee on the other, it's tough though. He's probably a hair better than Hennessee right now, but it's close and there's no question where the future lies. Third-round pick Willie Irvin didn't see any action, and he could also make an case for being in the mix.

The most obvious solution here would of course be to trade Vardaro. Jacksonville is the most apparent destination as they are seriously in need for a second quality player at that spot opposite George Morris. I inquire about the possibility of a straight-up trade for veteran LB Cornelius Pritchett, and they accept. That'll give them even more serious issues at linebacker, but none worse than they already have at end. It patches a hole for us, and gives Vardaro the kind of role he deserves. Everyone wins. I tend to not do many trades in these kinds of games in order to not abuse the AI, etc., and will probably never trade during the draft for that reason, but I made an exception here. Just seemed to be the right thing to do for Vardaro if I could find a win-win situation. He's a productive player who deserves a chance to play regularly, and now Irvin will get some snaps as well.

Nunn(due to being a backup last year), Winzenfried, and Whetstone also aren't happy. Nunn will hopefully get there as he continues to get more starts, while the days of the other two in a Detroit uniform are probably numbered.

Other games: At this point in the season I'll just look at the surprising results. Kansas City was a mild surprise in a 38-31 win @ Denver, the Broncos having been favored by a field goal. Denver tied it up on a field goal with 11 seconds to play, rallying from a 31-18 4th-quarter deficit. They couldn't stop the Chiefs in overtime, and nine penalties were probably the biggest difference. Probably the biggest upset was Philadelphia invading Washington and coming out with a 28-23 win; the Redskins were strong 11-point favorites but trailed 28-10 after three and came up short in a comeback attempt. Washington was able to move the ball much more effectively, but was undone by a combination of factors. QB Gage McGee was 30 of 36 passing, but was sacked seven times by the aggressive Eagles defense, and an early third-quarter interception led to the big deficit. It was also another game where penalties played a big role. San Diego got themselves destroyed 45-17 in Oakland, a game that was expected to be one of the closest this week. The Chargers have a lot of work to do if they are going to win the AFC a third straight time. It was a straight-up buttkicking in every facet. Seattle's throttling of Arizona, 38-6, was simply astonishing. The Cardinals got only 235 yards of total offense; they couldn't get anything going. The consensus in pre-season was that Arizona is the best team talent-wise in the NFL, head-and-shoulders above the competition. They sure didn't look it. Barry Buchanan, one of the top quarterbacks in the league(4000 yards, 33 TD, just 3 INTs last season) was just 10 of 24 throwing the ball. Lots of questions to answer for head coach Adam Vinatieri. A really exciting one in the bay area, with San Francisco narrowly winning 28-27 against Los Angeles on Lewis Reado 10-yard pass to Norm McWilliams with just over a minute to go. The Rams had been slight favorites to get the road win. In the lowest-scoring game of the opening week, the Cleveland Browns went into Pittsburgh and somehow came away with a 10-6 win despite only 211 yards of offense. A 2-yd plunge by Julian Johnstone in the second quarter was the only touchdown, and it held up for the win on a cool, blustery day.

Olsson · 12-13-2016, 08:30 PM

Interesting read so far! Close one against Chicago. Let's see if it was a fluke! ��

Brian Swartz · 12-19-2016, 01:05 PM

Thanks! Onward we go to see how long it will take the Lions to get a win ...

Week 2: New England(1-0) @ Detroit(0-1)
Line: New England by 5

Injury Report: C Arturo James is back to 100%. CB Roman Hartl(Probable, Groin) and CB Amari Harding(Probable, Shoulder Tendinitis) will play. TE Brent Harr(Out, Strained Calf), RB Brett Reese(Out, Stress Fracture, Foot), WR Christian Bailey(Out, Broken Clavicle), and LB Bruce Small(Out, Broken Fibula) will not. Harr and Reese should be back next week or the game after; Bailey and Small will be out until roughly midseason.

The foolish faithful get their first look at my Lions at Ford Field. New England was outgained by New Jersey in their first game, but won 30-6 thanks to four Jets turnovers.

Preview: The Patriots aren't the Bears, but they still have a potent offense. QB Ken Barrett is a battle-tested veteran(76-42, 17 comeback wins). He excels in late-game situations, moving the sticks on third downs, and giving his receivers opportunities to make big plays after the catch. Over 4500 yards last year, 33 TDs against 9 INTs. RB Vincent Broomfield is solid, fast and a good outlet for third-down passes. Missed four games last year which lowered his production a bit, but had almost 1200 yards with 11 TDs the year before, averaging nearly five a pop the past couple of seasons. Two quality wideouts, neither of which are quite a true #1, in Melvin Mahoney and Abel Kelly. Mahoney put up the biggest numbers last year, 100 catches for 1300 yards and 9 TDs. Lincoln Harper is quite capable, though not nearly as big a part of the passing game as most tight ends. A fine run blocker though. They have a pretty good offensive line with stalwarts Aiden Evans and Adrian Watson, but LT Gus Scott has not really fit in well and will be making just his fourth start. He's generally considered to have the talent to be pretty good, but isn't ready yet. New England's kicking game is average at best.

On defense, they play a 4-3 and the front is really pretty weak except for MLB Ricky Christian. Christian is a very smart player who is much better in coverage than in other aspects. The secondary is a little better, anchored by SS Craig Rivers. He's another guy who uses his brain as his best asset.

Overall our defense is better, primarily on the line. They've definitely got more and better offensive weapons though. A tough matchup, but the kind of one that we need to win if we are going to be a playoff team. The expert view is that our receivers aren't good enough to get open consistently against them, especially without Bailey, and that Nunn won't be able to have the kind of success throwing the ball that he did against Chicago. It's even more important that we get a big game from Davis running the ball.

** Short kickoff and poor coverage start New England out near midfield. Charles Watt knocks down a third-down pass and they miss a long field goal(48 yds) to keep them off the board. New England 0, Detroit 0, 12:41 1Q

** Joseph Davis makes a nice move and breaks a tackle, running away from the defense for a 34-yard TD on a short pass play. Detroit 7, New England 0, 10:55 1Q

** 80-yard drive gets us another score, with Raul Nunn scoring from 5 yards out on a keeper. Short pass to Roosevelt Delery that goes for 36 on third-and-7 was the key play. For some reason Davis only has one carry so far, Banks with four. Otherwhise it's been a perfect start . Detroit 14, New England 0, 3:45 1Q

** Another long field goal by Patriots kicker Luther Murdock is good this time from 51 yards. A false start and good pass defense on the ensuing plays stalled their drive. Detroit 14, New England 3, 14:47 2Q

** Another long drive stalls as Ashton Lovato sacks Nunn on second-and-goal. Catanzaro converts a 27-yard kick. Davis gets a little more action with carries of 13 and 14 yards. Detroit 17, New England 3, 9:32 2Q

** The Patriots convert four straight third-down plays, three of them through the air. We bend but don't break in the red zone, and a 29-yard Murdock field goal is all they get. LB Jameson Favre is injured, which we certainly don't need. Detroit 17, New England 6, 2:38 2Q

** The two-minute offense is aided by a New England penalty, and Nunn finds Ernie Snodgrass for a 14-yard score after Snodgrass dropped a pass earlier in the drive. Detroit 24, New England 6, 0:18 2Q.

Nunn is doing just fine this week(14 of 19, 218, 2 TDs). I'm starting to wonder if we have a better quarterback than everyone else thinks we do. We're getting much bigger chunks yardage in the passing game, and as a result facing fewer third downs. Only 3 carries, 27 yards for Davis. A heavy dose of Vincent Broomfield(7 rushes, 38 yards) has given way to more throws by Barrett(15-23, 109). As long as we keep them from making bigger plays in the passing game we'll do well. We're definitely getting a lot more pressure on Barrett than Nunn has had to deal with. No sacks for us but 4 hurries to 1 for them.

** Starting off the second half, Davis and Larry Winzenfried get big gainers of more than 20 yards. A holding penalty on Snodgrass is just a temporary setback, and Nick Chapman scores on a 17-yard pass. This game is turning into a stunning rout. Detroit 31, New England 6, 11:03 3Q

** Covington stops Broomfield on 3rd-and-goal from the 1, then Rico Campos blocks the ensuing field goal on a bad snap. The Patriots have decided that Barrett is done for the day, bringing in backup Dominique Macomber. Detroit 31, New England 6, 3:26 3Q.

** Penalties both ways mar the final quarter, and offensively we give them a steady diet of Davis with mixed results. Melvin Mahoney, their top receiver by a mile today, shakes loose for a 49-yard gain and a few plays later Macomber finds Lincoln Harper for their first touchdown from a yard out. Detroit 31, New England 13, 8:12 4Q

** We add another field goal by Catanzaro, this one from 39. Detroit 34, New England 13, 2:20 4Q

** New England adds on another pass to Harper, 19 yards just before time expires. They miss the kick.

Final Score: Detroit 34, New England 19

We actually end up getting outgained 445-408, but that's mostly due to not throwing a pass the last 20 minutes of the game.

Passing: Raul Nunn(19-26, 297, 3 TDs)
Rushing: Joseph Davis(12-52), Ronnie Banks(7-33), Raul Nunn(5-27)
Receiving: Roosevelt Delery(4-69), Ernie Snodgrass(3-48, TD), Joseph Davis(3-70, TD), Karl Gayle(3-43)

Definitely spread it around quite a bit here. Only slightly better day for Davis and most of his carries came late, but he was as effective as any receiver we had so he did make a significant contribution there.

Defense: Lincoln Adams and Cornelius Pritchett had 7 tackles each, 6 for Nickolas Berggren, 5 for Eugene Walley and Roman Hartl. No sacks, 4 hurries for Covington and 3 for Hennessee. Berggren, Harding, and Copeland had a pass defensed each.

Through two games we have zero turnovers, both created and committed. The offensive line notably played better this week, a little better by the D line as well. Davis and Snodgrass continue to make the most errors on offense; new LB Pritchett and the secondary in general were the biggest culprits on defense. A lot of that was again in the second half though after the game was over.

Good win to get us back to 1-1 on the year. Nunn is third in the league in passing yardage so far this season and has 4 TDs with no picks. Only one other QB has thrown as often as he has without one. I can only assume Davis' anemic 3.2 ypc will pick up. It'd better. Coaches are saying he's definitely regressing which isn't good to hear.

Injury report: Hartl and Harding are back to full strength. TE Brent Harr can go next week if we need him, which would be nice for the running game. Reese, Bailey, and Small are still out, and Jameson Favre's injury is a strained calf muscle which means he'll miss the next month. That'll make our linebacker situation even more tenuous. Really glad we have Pritchett or things would be worse than they already are.

Playing Time: Raul Nunn is happy now as anticipated. Winzenfried and Whetstone are not, and neither is CB Jay Berkowich now. He's a dime corner at best, and expendable so that's not a concern.

Other Games: Chicago's offense continued to be underwhelming, as they lost 23-13 at Miami where they were favored by 10. The Dolphins had more than 200 yards rushing(99 from Holiday, 97 from Grunhard) while shutting down the Bears ground game and Meehan looked very human. Exciting game in Carolina, with the Panthers winning 38-33 on a Douglas Copeland-Mack Evans pass play with 2:21 left. Arizona bounced back by trouncing Denver 32-7. Impressive performance by Dallas in what was supposed to be a close game, shutting down the visiting Colts 25-3. In Philadelphia, the favored Jacksonville Jaguars lost 30-27 after a wild fourth quarter. They led 17-13 after three, and looked to be headed to overtime after Caden Borden throw to Alvin Glover with 54 seconds left tied it at 27. War Angel Middleton(bonus points for the name here!) hit on three straight downfield passes to set up a chip shot by Devonte Conley with three seconds left, winning it for the Eagles. Seattle invaded San Diego and got their second straight road upset, shutting out the Chargers for the final three quarters in a 26-10 win. San Diego definitely is in trouble this year, but Seattle may be a team to watch on the other side of things. Baltimore had an impressive showing, dominating Tampa Bay 38-6 in what was expected to be a close game. The Bucs managed just 188 yards, while Ravens QB K.C. Gordon was 21 of 26 for 249 and a trio of scores. Tennessee and New York went to overtime, and it was a defensive struggle; Jalen Urquiola made a 29-yarder with just two seconds left in the extra session for the 23-20 final.

Minnesota lost at New Jersey 30-15, and Green Bay beat Buffalo 25-17, both expected results. That leaves us a game behind the Packers and ahead of the Viking, tied with Chicago.

Brian Swartz · 12-27-2016, 11:50 AM

Week 3: Tampa Bay(1-1) @ Detroit(1-1)
Line: Even

Preview: Tampa will definitely be looking to bounce back after their blowout loss at Baltimore last week. QB Nick Kletch has just 315 yards passing, 0 TDs and 1 INT so far this year. Top RB Demetrius Boccaccio(13 carries, 29 yards) hasn't been lighting it up either. They won via turnovers 17-10 at New Orleans in the opener, and if they are going to do it in their third straight road game to start the year it's not likely to be via offensive explosion. WR Darren Cash, their best weapon by far, has 7 catches for 73 yards so far. They've got a couple of top-quality blockers on what is overall a very respectable line, but G Daniel Sheppard is out with an MCL injury and his replacement is likely to struggle.

DE Leroy Mallo has 2.5 sacks already, and DT Ezra Harper is pretty stout in the run game to lead a pretty good line. LB Justin Harkness has 12 tackles through two games and is the best of a quality linebacking corps. CB Tevin Shaw is the best of two good ones, one of the better cover guys in the league. Safeties are a little weak but this is definitely a stout defense overall. Points will be at a premium.

Tampa Bay figures to do well in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and should be able to cover our receivers with little difficulty. Unless Nunn manages to continue his hot start against all odds, we are really going to need Davis to make some tough yards in this one.

** After a hilariously bad 3-and-out ends with an Abel Kirchoff sack on Tampa's first possession, Davis returns a short punt 24 yards to the Bucs 24, where we start with a great chance to take the lead. A few plays later, despite a holding penalty on Briggs, Davis hits paydirt on third-and-goal from the 1 with veteran C James making a key block. Detroit 7, Tampa Bay 0, 11:04 1Q

** We lose the field-position battle for a while, starting consecutive drives inside our own 10. Then Nunn gets a couple first downs with third-down scrambles as they are crushing our traditional run game. He goes deep for Winzenfried, but Bucs LB Justin Harkness makes the interception and after a big return Tampa is in business starting at our 35. They go nowhere and are forced to punt, preserving our lead. Detroit 7, Tampa Bay 0, 12:59 2Q

** Risky gamble on our next possession, as we go for it on 4th-and-1 at midfield. Didn't work out so great for us a couple weeks ago at Chicago. Davis runs behind Briggs and just barely gets it. It pays off here with a 26-yard pass from Nunn to Ernie Snodgrass, and we're now in full control. Detroit 14, Tampa Bay 0, 8:15 2Q

** Working on a short field, we go 44 yards for another score. Larry Winzenfried gets the 22-yard tally on a screen. Nunn is doing just fine against the Tampa defense, facing very little pressure although their coverage does seem to be better than the last two opponents. Detroit 21, Tampa Bay 0, 4:49 2Q

** Tampa finally gets on the board with a quick drive as Kletch hits for some big pass plays, including a 33-yarder to Darren Cash. Barton on a 4-yard screen out of the backfield for the score. Detroit 21, Tampa Bay 7, 3:22 2Q

** We drive again, and Nunn is picked off trying to force one in to Winzenfried against double coverage. LB Tevin Anthony makes the play. Tampa comes back the other way, and Pritchett makes our fourth sack of the day ... only to watch Darryl Ellis boot a 53-yard field goal anyway three seconds before the half. Detroit 21, Tampa Bay 10

Neither team has been effective running the ball(49 yards combined between the teams) but we are giving Nunn time to throw while Kletch doesn't have the same for Tampa Bay. That's the biggest difference right now.

** Good drive to start the third quarter had a ridiculous finish. We stall inside the 10, but a Tampa penalty gives us a new series. Then offensive holding on Boult returns the favor, only to have the Bucs flagged again giving us our third first-and-goal of the same drive. Harkness is everywhere for the Bucs and we misfire on third from the 4 ... but they are called for pass interference. 4th first and goal, from the 1. Banks gets the carry and scores. Detroit 28, Tampa Bay 10, 9:45 3Q. It's not every day you see three goal-line stands succeed and a touchdown still result on the same possession.

** Tampa Bay comes right back, drives, stalls ... and Kletch hits Jessie Flood for a 19-yard score on third-and-11. We're not out of the woods yet. A quick toss gets them a 2-point conversion. Detroit 28, Tampa Bay 18, 3:05 3Q

** Davis fumbles at midfield, and Delaney recovers for the Bucs. They get a 38-yard field goal attempt out of it, and Ellis makes it easily. Detroit 28, Tampa Bay 21, 14:25 4Q. This is getting a little too interesting, and we're making Kletch look far better than he is.

** On third-and-2 from our 41, a gutsy/stupid call gets Gayle on a reverse ... and he completely fools the Tampa defense, getting 57 yards all the way to the 2! Three plays later, Davis gets his second 1-yard TD of the day, and we're back in control. Detroit 35, Tampa Bay 21, 10:48

** As they are trying to make something happen, Kletch tosses out a flare pass to Bailey, and Lincoln Adams steps in front of it. Nothing but green grass in front of him, a pick-six for 24 yards and that'll be the nail in the coffin. Detroit 42, Tampa Bay 21, 4:53 4Q

** We're not done giving up points though. They march down the field quickly behind backup QB Thurman Davis, who connects with Cleland, one of their tight ends, for a touchdown. Detroit 42, Tampa Bay 28, 3:06 4Q

** Still not done. Darren Cash gets free for a 44-yard gash after we punt, and some good coverage combined with a sack by Covington stop them ... until we're called for offsides on 4th down. 4th and 13, and Cash just gets to the marker. Cleeland again for the score from two yards out. We're still going to win, but we don't deserve it at this point. Detroit 42, Tampa Bay 35, 0:30 4Q

** Ricky Van Buren recovers the onside kick for Tampa. 22 seconds left. Cash for 12, out of bounds at the 38 with 14 seconds left. Screen to Bailey, Walley makes the stop after just a yard, and it's finally over.

Final Score: Detroit 42, Tampa Bay 35

Did everything but lose that one. 42-35 in what I thought would be a low-scoring game; it's the highest-scoring one in the NFL this year so far.

Injury Report: RB Brett Reese will return. Brent Harr isn't totally healthy yet but can play. Broken toe for CB Amari Harding and he'll probably sit. Bailey, Favre, and Small are still out.

Other Games: The point spread was less than a touchdown in every game this week, so there was a lot of drama anticipated. Arizona won 33-14 in Carolina, turnovers mostly doing the damage there. Same story in New Jersey where they dominated the winless Bengals 31-7. Seattle looked like their strong start was in trouble as they hosted the Cowboys and trailed 17-7 after a scoreless third. They rallied at the end though, an 8-yarder from Bryce Song to Justics Anderson giving them the game-winner with 2:25 to go. Good game between two teams that won their first pair. Denver wins a wild one in Tennessee, 34-26, on a Miles Swift TD run late in the 4th. That's the Broncos' first win of the season. Philadelphia dominated visiting Green Bay 22-3 in another matchup of 2-0 teams. Baltimore's running game kept them perfect, 23-10 over the Jags. In Kansas City, the lead changed hands four times in the final four minutes before Miami escaped with a 32-25 win. Ray Poston to Rico Murray with 1:06 left was the deciding score, and the Dolphins remain unbeaten. In a battle of winless teams, Devante Clemmons tossed both of his TD passes in the 4th to lead Washington back against Minnesota, 27-20. The Redskins trailed 13-0 early in the third quarter. Houston finished strong to beat Oakland 27-22, keeping the Texas perfect as well on the year. San Francisco's also in the group, but it required the craziest 4th quarter of the season, a total of 40 points scored in the final frame for a 39-36 road win against Atlanta. They led 36-20 with less than three to go, but after a pair of Harris Asomugha TD throws, Amir Fletcher was required to nail a 54-yarder as time expired for the win. Cleveland is probably the strangest unbeaten team. Their offense continues to do nothing. They were outgained in Buffalo by 120 yards, yet won 27-13. The Bills got 10 points from 4 visits to the red zone.

Division Standings

Detroit is now in a three-way tie with Chicago and Green Bay at 2-1, with winless Minnesota already in a hole.

Brian Swartz · 12-30-2016, 09:56 PM

** Note: Upped injuries to 200%, as I'm informed that's more realistic.

Week 4: Los Angeles(2-1) @ Detroit(2-1)
Line: Los Angeles by 3

Preview: QB Doug Coffey(725 yards, 5 TD, INT) is on the downside of his career, but is still above-average. He's thrown for than 27k yards, with 175 TDs and 72 INTs. 67-59 with 17 comeback wins for him. Rookie RB Mickey Alcott is underwhelming at less than three yards a carry this year. The Rams have multiple inadequate runners, a couple of them hurt. Wideouts Jamie Lynch(14-192-1) and Efrain Moore(12-166-1) are the offense's most dangerous weapons. This offense succeeds mostly because it gets great blocking. Malcolm Rivers is 25 and easily the best center in the NFL. T Hunter Summerlin is very good as well, and there are no real weak spots when they are healthy; a couple are not right now so the picture isn't quite as intimidating.

LA plays a 4-3, relying on ends Ike Jordan(2.5 sacks) and Melvin Matthews. They're not as good inside. Nick Prescott(15 tackles, sack) is a solid leader of the linebackers, and Arnold Aniston is a fine corner with three picks in as many games already this year.

Both defense are expected to struggle here. Seems I say it just about every week, but we'll probably need a bigger game from Davis. It'd be really cool if he'd show up.

** Three-and-out for both teams. Davis got nine yards with a couple broken tackles, then was shut down for no gain two plays in a row. We've gotta be able to do better than that.

** Our next drive, Winzenfried turns nothing into a 37-yard gain on a flare pass, and on 4th-and-4 from the Rams 31 we go for it ... Davis with the reception for 11 and the drive keeps going. A 2-yd pass from Nunn to Snodgrass eventually nets the score ... except Davis is called for pass interference! A 3-yd toss to Karl Gayle eventually results anyway. Nunn is 7 of 8 on the drive. Detroit 7, Los Angeles 0, 2:16 1Q

** The Rams get moving for the first time, or rather we get them moving with a pair of first downs gifted by penalty. Huge play at the goal line, with Lincoln Adams making a touchdown-saving tackle on TE Calvin Henson. Harvey Reynolds puts in the 18-yard kick to get them on the board. Detroit 7, Los Angeles 3, 11:51 2Q

** A long pass from Nunn to Roosevelt Delery sets up Catanzaro for a 43-yard FG, but he misses it badly. Detroit 7, Los Angeles 3, 3:05 2Q

Low-scoring half with lots of penalties; six on us. Our trends continue as neither team can run the ball(6 carries, 16 yds for Davis). Raul Nunn is 14-16 for 152 and the game's only TD. Our short passing game continues to work better than it has any right to. Meanwhile the Rams have only 92 yards of offense.

** After a few more three-and-outs, our defense has it's worst possession of the year. Lax coverage leads to a couple big pass plays, then multiple missed tackles allow Mickey Alcott to ramble 24 yards to put Los Angeles in front. Los Angeles 10, Detroit 7, 7:52 3Q

** A comedy of errors ensues in a defensive struggle on both sides. A few more penalties, receivers dropping passes that would have gone for big gains, etc. At the end of the third, a big third-down completion to Delery sets us up with first and goal ... but Nunn tries to force one in to Winzenfried for the umpteenth time today on third down and fails. Chandler Catanzaro converts from 24 yards to even it up. Los Angeles 10, Detroit 10, 13:32 4Q

** Efrain Moore had only one catch through three quarters, but he gets a couple of sizable gains to get the Rams moving. Then, as we've forced them into third-and-long just outside of field-goal range, Roman Hartl is called for unnecessary roughness. That's our 8th penalty of the game, and it would not be the last on this drive. A screen pass to FB Bart Salo puts the Rams back in front. Los Angeles 17, Detroit 10, 9:32 4Q

** They stop us right away ... but are called for defensive holding. Nobody wants to win this game, I swear it. Our 10th penalty ensures we will go nowhere though.

** Next possession, Davis gets a solid return to start us out near midfield. After a first down, Snodgrass drops a pass, then Chapman with a false start. 4th and 7 from their 40, and Nunn can't complete it to Snodgrass under pressure. Los Angeles 17, Detroit 10, 2:30 4Q

** A couple of penalties allow us to stop them right away. 84 yards to go, with 2:07, no timeouts. Ernie Snodgrass gets free and hangs onto the ball this time, 35 yards to midfield. Three incompletions and then Chapman is forced out three yards shy of the sticks. That'll do it.

Final Score: Los Angeles 17, Detroit 10

We're 2-2 after our first home loss of the year.

Passing: Raul Nunn(29-44, 297, TD)
Rushing: Joseph Davis(16-35)
Receiving: Larry Winzenfried(9-90), Joseph Davis(5-42), Karl Gayle(5-38, TD), Roosevelt Delery(3-70)
Defense: Lincoln Adams(6), Eugene Walley(5), Cornelius Pritchett(5). Alexis Covington and Charles Watt had one sack each.

No turnovers either way. 11 penalties for 103 yards; Los Angeles had 7 for 55. They figured us out in the second half. Nunn was just 15-28, and the running game never got going. At 2-2, we're tied with Green Bay and a game back of Chicago.

Other Games: Arizona has their most impressive showing of the year, dominating 36-6 at Green Bay. At 3-1, they're back in the hunt after a no-show to start the year. Atlanta's defense stood tall, and the Falcons eventually rallied from a 16-6 deficit at the half to hand Philadelphia their first loss, 30-19. Buffalo remains winless, going the final 55+ without an offensive point in a 20-10 loss @ Houston. The calls for Tribble are getting louder, but honestly it'd be a poor move. Quarterback isn't the problem. Dallas won one they shouldn't have, 34-27 in overtime @ Carolina. A short field goal tied it up in the final minute, and an Isaac Barrow TD run after a fruitless overtime with 11 seconds left gives the Cowboys the win. Baltimore narrowly stays unbeaten in a game they should have won more easily than 20-17 against KC. Miami loses their first game in a visit to New England; the Patriots find the end zone five times in their first six possessions en route to a 37-24 victory. Nicholas Starks had a decidedly bad day for the New Jersey Jets, throwing a quartet of picks in a 22-6 loss at Jacksonville. There was some drama in Cincy, where Alvin Shea threw two fourth-quarter TD passes to Craig Roeglen, including the game-winner from 29 yards out in the final minute, to give the Bengals their first win. Oakland is the victim, 24-19. Chicago's J.T. Meehan throws for 341 and 3 scores to help the Bears hand visiting San Francisco their first loss in convincing fashion, 35-16. Perhaps the stunner of the day was in Indianapolis, where the winless Colts trailed 27-14 after three against the undefeated Houston Texans ... and rallied to win, 31-27! Indy turned it over four times, but backup QB Randall Creighton hit Richard Liewinski for the go-ahead score midway through the final quarter, while Houston managed no more than 14 yards on any of it's last four possessions.

Baltimore, Cleveland, and Seattle remain unscathed; everyone else has lost at least once. San Diego!!, Buffalo, New York, and Minnesota are still looking for their first victory of the year.

Morale Report: We're up to five players unhappy now

** G Mackenzie Schwartz
** TE Ernie Snodgrass
** WR Larry Winzenfried
** C Ricardo Whetstone
** CB Jay Berkowich

Snodgrass is the only one I really care about. He leads the team with 32 targets, and is second with 18 receptions(Gayle has 19). Chapman being listed as the starting tight end appears to be his beef. I'd like to have both of them, but if I have to lose one, Chapman is younger and has more upside. Both have multiple years left on their contracts, so they're here regardless for the time being -- not something I need to worry about right away.

Injury Report: This list definitely got longer. Fortunately we have a bye week coming up.

** TE Brent Harr -- Ready to go now.
** WR Roosevelt Delery(Bruised Ribcage) -- Q(2)
** WR Karl Gayle(Strained Rotator Cuff) -- P(2)
** CB Ronnie Copeland(Sprained Ankle) -- Q(2)
** LB Jameson Favre(Strained Calf) -- P(2)
** DT Abel Kirchhoff(Broken Toe) -- Q(3)
** CB Amari Harding(Broken Toe) -- Q(3)
** WR Christian Bailey(Broken Clavicle) -- D(3)
** LB Bruce Small(Broken Fibula) -- O(5)

We should look a lot healthier in a week's time, particularly with the receivers which is where the biggest problems are right now; our top three wideouts are all banged up.

Brian Swartz · 01-01-2017, 10:39 PM

Week 5: BYE

Insert bad joke here about how we will probably still find a way to lose.

Other Games: Arizona visited Chicago in a matchup of two teams at 3-1 and looking to get a leg up early on in the NFC. A pair of Cardinals fumbles and red-zone struggles allowed the Bears to win 38-20 with both teams amassing nearly 400 yards throught the air. Four more TD passes for J.T. Meehan. Baltimore won another even game, this one 23-13 at Oakland, to stay perfect. The Ravens' record is a lot more impressive than their on-field display, but a win is a win. The Giants get their first victory in an error-filled 21-17 win against equally inept Carolina. Cincinatti visited Pittsburgh, and pulled their second rabbit out of a hat in as many weeks. Alvin Shea hit Ernest Brantley to even the game up at 27-all with 12 seconds left, and the Bengals won it with overtime field goal. Dallas gained just 247 yards at Tampa Bay, but their opportunistic defense was crucial in a 23-9 road win nonetheless. Les Fedo threw a pair of early interceptions for Cleveland, and despite a late rally they lose at home to Denver, 24-17. Jacksonville rushed for over 200 yards, 141 by Troy Cottle, in a convincing 29-6 win over Miami. New Orleans and Philadelphia played to a 7-7 tie over three quarters, then erupted in the final frame. A hail-mary from Rufus Santana is answered by Donte Palacios, and the Saints win this one, 21-17. New Jersey bounces back by allowing just 193 total yards to Houston in an impressive 26-7 road win. Seattle was nearly knocked off by, of all teams, winless Minnesota. A 9-yard pass from Bryce Stitt to Justics Anderson gave the Seahawks a 31-27 win. Stitt only had four incompletions all day, but the Seattle defense definitely didn't show up. Washington visited Atlanta in the last game here, and it was the biggest defensive struggle of the season. 392 yards of combined offense. Washington never made it to the red zone once, while the Falcons overcome a pair of turnovers for a 12-6 victory.

Morale Report: no changes at might be expected in an off week.

Injury Report:

** WR Roosevelt Delery(Bruised Ribs) -- P(1)
** WR Karl Gayle(Strained Rotator Cuff) -- P(1)
** CB Ronnie Copeland(Sprained Ankle) -- P(1)
** LB Jameson Favre(Strained Calf) -- P(1)
** DT Abel Kirchhoff(Broken Toe) -- P(2)
** CB Amari Harding(Broken Toe) -- P(2)
** WR Christian Bailey(Broken Clavicle) -- Q(2)
** LB Bruce Small(Broken Fibula) -- O(4)

Small's been out all year, and Bailey will get another week to heal but all the other key guys will be playing. We're at Green Bay in a key game; second place in the North is at stake, and we lead them by a half-game.

Brian Swartz · 01-03-2017, 06:39 PM

Week 6: Detroit(2-2) @ Green Bay(2-3)
Line: Detroit by 7

Preview: Green Bay has a solid, veteran quarterback in Percy Lynn(5 TD, 5 INT, 1220 yds this year; 32k yards career, 89-46 with 1 title). He doesn't throw the deep ball well but is good on anything shorter. Lamar Meyer(335 yards, 4.7 ypc, 2 TDs), a third-year back in his first year as a starter, has been reasonably productive. Not particularly versatile but he has great speed and power, a tough combination. The receiving corps is quite underwhelming, and Ezekiel Conway(16-193) is the only one who is healthy right now. G Cooper Lane leads a trio of standout linemen for their offense, but C Cole Rudy is out right now, and the third wheel is dealing with a bruised sternum and limited. Still a quality offensive line, but not nearly what it would be if they were healthy. The lack of weapons has translated into the second-worst scoring offense in the league at just 15 points a game.

On defense, the Packers play a 3-4, with the linemen solid but not better across the board. The linebackers are the strength here. Stanley Cortez has 28 tackles on the year, 27 and a sack for Chandler Harding. Three of the four are pretty good, making this a strong unit. S Damien Huntley, the only standout in the secondary, has a stress fracture in his foot and is not available. The corners in particularly are a weak point here. So far the defense has been a little below-average this year for Green Bay, much like Detroit's.

Clearly the oddsmakers like us. We're definitely healthier than our hosts, and figure to win the battle up front on both sides of the ball despite being on the road. The key here is for Raul Nunn and the rest of the offense to bounce back and put some more points on the board after struggling against LA.

** Somebody forgot to tell our defense to show up. Green Bay marches straight down the field against anemic coverage by our secondary, then Lane flattens TJ Atkins as Xavier Turner follows a veritable highway up the middle for a 14-yard score. Green Bay 7, Detroit 0, 9:40 1Q

** Didn't do any better on their next drive. A short toss to TE Clarence Branch for another score, and Percy Lynn is 9 of 11 against us early. Green Bay 14, Detroit 0, 3:33 1Q

** An offsides penalty and a deep pass to Snodgrass finally get us going, only to watch Nunn whiff on three straight after we get first and goal from the 1. Apparently giving the ball to Davis at least once would have been too much to ask. 18-yd FG from Catanzaro gets us on the board, but we needed a touchdown. Green Bay 14, Detroit 3, 0:19 1Q

** Three and out for the Packers on their next possession, mostly self-inflicted, and we lose LB Lincoln Adams. Bad leg injury to one of Green Bay's players on the ensuing punt. Quite a dangerous couple of plays there.

** After a holding penalty on Arturo James, we eventually settle for another short kick from 24 yards out. Green Bay 14, Detroit 6, 8:56 2Q. Not getting in the end zone is almost certainly going to come back to bite us.

** Consistent pressure gets us another stop ... but Alexis Covington, our top pass-rusher and defensive star, has to leave the game. If he's out long we're in trouble.

** As we are on the move again, Nunn fires to Larry Winzenfried, but Packers LB Peter Greer steps in front of the pass, returning it 67 yards for a back-breaking score. We're in big trouble now. Green Bay 21, Detroit 6, 2:07 2Q. Then Roosevelt Delery is injured on the ensuing kickoff.

** A stunning bomb to Winzenfried, then a 9-yd strike to Nick Chapman on the next play get us back in business. Green Bay 21, Detroit 13, 0:28 2Q

At the half, Lynn has missed on 9 of his last 11 passes, but there were a number of drops in there. We've done fairly well after the bad start, but the interception and our failure to convert in the red zone twice have kept the Packers in front. Still have a chance, but not much of a margin for error.

** Or we could simply roll over. That works too. A fumble on the second-half kickoff sets up a 7-yard burst by Lamar Meyer. Green Bay 28, Detroit 13, 11:41 3Q

** Next possession, we get a big third-down conversion on a screen to FB Norman Wright, but lose our top run-blocker in Collin Briggs. Davis then fumbles ... but recovers it. Eventually Nunn finds Chapman for another score, this one from 22 yards out. Green Bay 28, Detroit 20, 8:03 3Q. This is turning into a real shootout, with Nunn already over 300 yards passing.

** After a Green Bay drop gets us a stop, Nunn is sacked ... fumbles ... and DT Todd Anderton returns it to our 25. Two plays later, a 15-yard score from Ezekiel Conway as we elect not to even try to stop them apparently. Green Bay 35, Detroit 20, 1:36 3Q. The turnover festival is killing us; over a quarter to go and the Pack has already doubled their season scoring average.

** Joseph Davis gets his best game of the year on a single play, breaking multiple tackles on a pitch play that goes for 62 yards! Two plays later, a 3-yd toss to Reese, and we're within a score again. Green Bay 35, Detroit 27, 0:16 3Q

** Our defense once again puts up virtually no resistance, at least until Green Bay's called for holding on the goal line. Rico Campos makes a touchdown-saving tackle on Branch on third down, and the Packers settle for a field goal for the first time today. Green Bay 38, Detroit 27, 10:24 4Q

** CB Ronnie Copeland is called for an illegal block on the return, wiping out a nice return by Harlan. Sigh. On 4th-and-2 from the Green Bay 33, after moving 60 yards, Nunn decides this is the time to go for Gayle who is double-covered in the end zone. They tip it away. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

** A false start penalty helps us get a stop, but then Davis fumbles the ensuing punt. Green Bay falls on it inside our 20. That'll be the nail in the coffin.

Final Score: Green Bay 41, Detroit 34

This debacle was a great illustration of the time-honored maxim that if you turn it over, it doesn't matter what else you do. We lose that battle 4-0, rendering moot the fact that we set NFL highs for the year in total offense(605 yds) and passing(470 yds). The defense was bad, but we still gave this game away, pure and simple.

Passing: Raul Nunn(28-42, 488, 4 TD, INT)
Rushing: Joseph Davis(10-90)
Receiving: Nick Chapman(8-133, 3 TD); Karl Gayle(6-81); Joseph Davis(5-89); Larry Winzenfried(4-81)
Defense: Charles Watt(6 tkl). Alexis Covington had our only sack before leaving the game in the first half. A couple hurries by Joey Hennessee.

Davis has his best game by far, with 179 yards in total. We've been waiting for this to happen, but we wasted it.

Other Games: In a battle of the NFC's elite, the Rams defense got another feather in their cap. They slow down the high-powered Chicago offense in a 30-17 win. Cincinatti just keeps doing it; another Alvin Shea TD pass, this one with just two seconds remaining, and they win at Kansas City 20-17. Jacksonville picks off Colts' QB Randall Creighton four times, but their anemic offense gets just 163 yards and they still lose 13-6. Oakland wins 8-6 at Cleveland, the lowest-scoring game so far this season. A third-quarter safety sack by Renaldo Fisher provided the margin. I don't know what got into Carolina, but they crush the Eagles 46-3 for just their second win of the year. Baltimore keeps on keeping on. Outgained by winless San Diego, they move to 6-0 nonetheless, 21-13. Seattle is knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten, 22-16 in a hard-fought game by San Francisco. After a brilliant showing last week, Bryce Stitt is just 11 of 27 against the 49ers. Atlanta scores both of their touchdowns in the final five minutes, the second one a long punt return by Rodolfo Bazzell, and they stun Tampa Bay 17-14. A weird one in Dallas -- a pair of Cary Giles fumble returns for TDs less than two minutes apart put Washington in control in the third quarter. The Cowboys rally to win it though, 25-24 on an Earnest Emerson field goal with a minute remaining. Buffalo finally gets their first victory, holding off Houston 19-14. It hasn't quieted the fans' demand, thus far unanswered, to get Tribble on the field.

Baltimore is the only remaining unbeaten team, and I expect that'll end fairly soon given how unimpressive they've been. San Diego is shockingly still one of the winless teams, along with Minnesota.

Morale Report: A few guys got more playing time this week and are happy again, including Snodgrass. LB Harris Boult is the latest to join the annoyed list. He's our defensive captain and about as good as our weakest current starters, Watt and Favre. Hopefully that situation works itself out.

Injury Report:

** WR Karl Gayle, CB Ronnie Copeland, OT Tanner Farr, LB Jameson Favre are all good to go. That's the good news.

** DT Abel Kirchhoff(Broken Toe) -- P(1)
** CB Amari Harding(Broken Toe) -- P(1)
** SE Christian Bailey(Broken Clavicle) -- P(1)
** LB Lincoln Adams(Pulled Groin) -- Q(2)
** LB Bruce Small(Broken Fibula) -- O(3)
** WR Roosevelt Delery(Strained Foot Ligament) -- O(4)
** DE Alexis Covington(Separated Shoulder) -- O(4)
** OG Collin Briggs(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- O(7)

Covington is the big loss. He's still our best defensive player by far, and had four sacks in a little over four games. Rookie Willie Irvin will get more of a run as the next man up. He's solid, but he's no Covington. Opposite Hennessee, the two first-year ends really need to step it up. That didn't happen against Green Bay. The injury to Adams means that two out of our three(at best) quality linebackers are out of commission; only Pritchett remains. That'll be a patchwork group, and our front seven looks like it's barely hanging on by a thread here.

Offensively, it'll be good to get Bailey back out there this week. We'll need him alongside Gayle, with Delery now out. With our one good run-blocker now out most of the year, even more pressure will fall on the arm of Nunn. Third-year guard Nickolas Bardon will have to step up now.

Brian Swartz · 01-04-2017, 06:24 PM

Week 7: Detroit(2-3) @ San Francisco(4-1)
Line: San Francisco by 7

Preview: This is the start of brutal five-game stretch in which we'll be significant underdogs every week. In this case, we face the 49ers in a matchup of two of the best offenses and worst defenses in the league so far. QB Lewis Reado(7 TDs, 1 INT) hasn't been as prolific as Nunn has so far, but he doesn't make mistakes and is very good on the deep ball. The running duties have been alternated some between two quality backs, with Dave Yates, a better receiver than runner, currently favored. The receivers are of similar serviceable quality to ours; Maurice Ethridge(26 receptions) and TE Norm McWilliams(19, 2 TDs) are the best of the group. Up front, C Butch Palmer leads a solid group but he's the only standout. No super offensive weapons, but Reado's a good QB and there are no big holes. Meanwhile, P Cody Poole is one of the best.

A 3-4 on defense, and the best of a fairly unimpressive group of linemen, DE Richie Olivares, is out with a knee injury. Lucas Jordon(29 tkls, 1.5 sacks) is the only guy that jumps out among the linebackers, and he's not that good. 4th-year CB Don Carr is one of the best cover guys in the league(11 INTs, 1 this year), but other than him the defense looks solid, but nobody jumps out. They're better than the # of points the team has given up would indicate -- average against the run, a little worse against the pass but not terrible.

Should be able to score points here, but obviously we can't turn it over like last week, and the defense will be under pressure in this game.

** After a quick 3-and-out for us, they repeatedly gash our defense and Lewis Reado scrambles 14 yards for the first score of the game. San Francisco 7, Detroit 0, 10:43 1Q

** Next possession, Nunn makes his first completion on his fourth pass of the day. Unfortunately it's caught by the 49ers; Cedric Kohn returns it to our 5. An easy TD run on the next play by Shawn Judge, and we're facing an uphill battle again. San Francisco 14, Detroit 0, 9:59 1Q

** Nunn is perfect on our next drive, hitting Larry Winzenfried for a 7-yard strike on his fourth completion. San Francisco 14, Detroit 7, 5:16 1Q

** On the next play from scrimmage, Reado's pass is tipped, and Eugene Walley snags a rare interception for us at the 40. We get a field goal try that just barely makes it by Catanzaro out of it. San Francisco 14, Detroit 10, 1:53 1Q

** They get just close enough to try a 50-yarder by Amir Fletcher, but it's just short and we're still down four early in the second.

** Joseph Davis shows his moves in the open field, making the 49ers defense look impotent on a 35-yard screen pass. Detroit 17, San Francisco 14, 12:44 2Q. 17 unanswered points now, and Nunn is 8 of 10 since the pick.

** Davis takes it in on the ground from three yards out the next time we get the ball. It's an avalanche right now and I'm loving it. Detroit 24, San Francisco 14, 7:25 2Q

** Another tipped Reado pass, and this time our top corner, Roman Hartl is there. He returns it 20 yards across midfield. After a drop by Winzenfried, we go for it on 4th down ... and convert with Nick Chapman doing the honors. A couple of plays later, Brett Reese catches a short TD pass, Nunn's third of the half already. Detroit 31, San Francisco 14, 3:33 2Q.

** The 49ers march down the field and look set to punch it in. Reado flips a pass to Norm McWilliams in the flat ... and Walley steps in front of it for his second interception of the day, rambling 97 yards for a touchdown! This is truly getting ridiculous at this point. Detroit 38, San Francisco 14, 1:52 2Q

** It got worse. The two-minute drill got San Fran in field goal range ... and then LB Jameson Favre got in on the pick-six action. Detroit 45, San Francisco 14, 0:16 2Q

Reado had one interception in the first five games, and has four more here in one half. Nice of him to have a meltdown in our favor. We've actually been outgained slightly in total yardage, yet this game is already over.

** The 49ers pull Reado at halftime. That was as good an indication as any that they were giving up. It was a boring, 'let's just get this over with' second half.

Final Score: Detroit 52, San Francisco 22

The first half was one of the highest-scoring games of the year, and this is the first time anyone's topped 50. 35 second-quarter points is definitely a high.

Passing: Raul Nunn(16-24, 216, 3 TDs, INT)
Rushing: Joseph Davis(19-80, 2 TDs)
Receiving: Larry Winzenfrield(4-43, TD); Joseph Davis(4-46, TD)
Defense: Jameson Favre(9 tkls); Cornelius Pritchett(7 tkls); Amari Harding(7 tkls). Backup Shawn Mahoney had our only sack, with interceptions by Eugene Walley(2), Amari Harding, and Jameson Favre.

Don't look now, but Davis just had his second productive game in a row. I'm basically looking at this game and the Green Bay game as a wash. We lost one we should have won, then won one that was handed to us on a silver platter. At 3-3, we're tied with the Packers one game behind Chicago.

Other Games: Seattle hosts Arizona in their second meeting, and survives a late comeback for to sweep the season 34-27. They could well meet again in the playoffs. Drake Burroughs had 103 yards on just 15 carries as Carolina drubs Atlanta. The Panthers are on a roll right now. Baltimore crashes out as the last unbeaten to fall, a shockingly bad 30-3 demolition by Denver. The Ravens had just 118 yards of offense. That's ... hard to do. New York beats Dallas 24-20 in a wild fourth quarter that started with a 6-3 score. A late TD run by Morris Richardson gave them the upset. Oakland will not have a good week. They led 28-6 after three at home against Kansas City. The score wsas the same midway through the fourth, but they still managed to find a way to lose. An onside kick by the Chiefs in the final minute let them score twice at the end, and then they kicked a field goal in overtime for a 31-28 final. Philadelphia feels a little better, but not much after letting a 10-point lead in the final quarter evaporate. Tampa Bay comes back to win there, 23-20 in OT. Minnesota led for almost the entire game against one of the top teams in the league, Los Angeles. The Vikings are still winless after a keeper by Doug Coffey accounts for the Rams only touchdown in a 10-7 final. San Diego is still winless after the Chargers give up two scores in the 4th at home to fall to Cleveland, 23-18. Apparently blowing leads is the trend, because it happened to New England as well. A 15-point lead goes away for them with Houston taking a 35-34 decision. Myles Ramsey to Edwin Heath with under a minute left was the winner.

Morale Report: The list of unhappy players is shrinking and has nobody on it we care about. C Ricardo Whetstone is the only consistent name.

Injury Report:

** DT Abel Kirchhoff, WR Christian Bailey are now fully fit.

** LB Lincoln Adams(Pulled Groin) -- P(1)
** CB Amari Harding(Broken Toe) -- P(1)
** LB Bruce Small(Broken Fibula) -- O(2)
** WR Roosevelt Delery(Strained Foot Ligament) -- O(3)
** DE Alexis Covington(Separated Shoulder) -- O(4)
** G Collin Briggs(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- O(6)
** CB Nickolas Berggren(Turf Toe) -- D(??)

Berggren was the only casualty as we got healthier this week. He's our #2 corner so Harding will step in there. Adams will be back in the lineup, and if we get Small back soon the linebackers will be looking good.

Brian Swartz · 01-05-2017, 07:21 PM

Week 8: Seattle(5-1) @ Detroit(3-3)
Line: Seattle by 7

Preview: The Seahawks are as good as it gets in the passing game; #1 on offense, #4 on defense. Against the run, the defense is above-average but the offense is abysmal. It's their one weakness. If we had a top-notch pass defense, that might mean something: but we're 23rd so far. They might be one-dimensional, but our odds of slowing them down don't look good. Unless Nunn and co. can continue recent success and keep up, it doesn't look good.

Bryce Stitt isn't a guy who jumps out in most aspects as a quarterback, but he's very accurate and skilled at hitting his receivers in stride. 1700 yards, 14 TD, 3 INT this year. RB Junior Conley is one of those guys who should be better than his numbers show this year, though he's mostly a third-down back by skillset. 235 yards, 2.34 avg. is pretty darned abysmal. Willie Crujin(23-465-4 TDs) is by far the best receiver. The offensive line isn't that impressive. C Simon Griffin and G Darnell Conley are good, but everyone else has weaknesses. Overall it's a group that you look at and wonder how they are one of the top offenses in the league. Crujin is one of the best wideouts around, but really it looks like Stitt, like Nunn for us, is just having a charmed year. This is a meeting of the two highest-rated passers in the NFL this year ... and nobody would have predicted these two.

Seattle plays a 4-3 on defense, with DT Lenny Lane(2.5 sacks) the best of the guys up front. They would probably be better suited for the 3-4, as they've got a pair of fine inside backers in Nathan Tillman and Emmett Jacobs. Alejandro Whitmore on strong side is also quite solid. Aside from safety Gerald Taylor, who has bruised ribs and isn't 100%, the secondary leaves a lot to be desired.

The roster isn't as good as the record, but they've still got a little more talent than we do. With their last four games being close, one wonders if Seattle is just a team that got off to a good start. A flash in the pan, so to speak. Guess it's time we found out.

** DT Lane is hurt on the second play from scrimmage, and a screen to Winzenfried picks up 11 on third-and-10. That only works once, and we have to punt it away.

** The defenses have the clear upper hand early. A scoreless first quarter, and losing our best blocker, OT Tanner Farr, doesn't help with our side of that equation.

** We get on the board first with a 10-yard pass from Raul Nunn to Norman Wright. Nick Chapman made a big third-down catch to get us in position. Detroit 7, Seattle 0, 11:39 2Q

** Seattle strikes back quickly in just four plays, a 3-yd plunge by Gavin Gearhardt getting them the score. Detroit 7, Seattle 7, 9:04 2Q

** All of a sudden nobody can stop anything. Brett Reese goes almost untouched on a 25-yard run. Detroit 14, Seattle 7, 6:52 2Q

** The first turnover goes to us, just Stitt's fourth pick of the year. Ronnie Copeland makes it at midfield. However, a reverse fails horribly and we lose yards on the possession.

** Still 14-7 at the half. We're doing a little better job on 3rd down situations, and being up a touchdown at home is a nice place to be.

** We miss some chances to stop them right away in the third quarter, and pay for it. Willie Grujin gets free on a crossing route and outruns our defense for a 39-yard score to tie it. Detroit 14, Seattle 14, 12:34 3Q

** A field position battle ensued at that point, both teams knowing any mistake could give the other an edge. The first one was made by Seattle, offensive holding in the end zone by G Levan Lucas. It's a safety! Detroit 16, Seattle 14, 1:30 3Q

** We seize the momentum quickly, a 1-yd toss to Nunn's favorite target, Chapman. Detroit 23, Seattle 14, 14:11 4Q

** A couple of possessions later, a big sack by Willie Irvin inside the Seahawks 10 and Stitt fumbles ... but they get it back. Great play by the rookie regardless. A couple of plays later, he tries to force on in to Grujin and LB Cornelius Pritchett makes the interception. Good chance for us to put this away. Joseph Davis finds paydirt from 16 yards out, and that should do it. Detroit 30, Seattle 14, 9:19 4Q

** We try to run out the clock, but they can't stop us. Raul Nunn has a shocking 34-yard keeper against a defense keying on Davis. Detroit 37, Seattle 14, 4:45 4Q

Final Score: Detroit 40, Seattle 14

Much closer game than that indicates. Up until the safety late in the third, this was a close, well-played game. Then the wheels sort of came off for the Seahawks.

Passing: Raul Nunn(21-31, 224, 2 TDs)
Rushing: Joseph Davis(21-151, TD); Brett Reese(6-35, TD)
Receiving: Nick Chapman(6-82, TD); Larry Winzenfried(6-69)
Defense: Eugene Walley(6 tkls); a sack each for Willie Irvin and Lincoln Adams, and another shared by Abel Kirchhoff and Sam Marian. Cornelius Pritchett and Ronnie Copeland had an interception each. Almost everyone on defense did something.

The defense as a whole and Davis in his best game on the ground with five carries of 10+ were clearly the keys here. In the second half, we wore them down while their running game became less effective. Now at 4-3, we've won two in a row that I thought we'd lose, and are a game ahead of Green Bay, one back of Chicago. Still right in the thick of the North race.

Other Games: Minnesota almost won for the second straight week, but dropped to 0-7 after a 34-31 loss at Chicago. It took a 32-yard run by Moe Riddols, part of a huge 181-yard day for him, to put the Bears in front for good. A fine game between two good teams in Dallas, where the visiting Saints came out on top 21-20. Rufus Santana to Leslie Cole was the winning tally with three minutes left. A pair of pick-6s helped New York to a 31-10 victory at Philadelphia despite just 222 yards of offense. Neal Norton hauled in a bomb for a late 76-yard score, allowing Pittsburgh a stunning win at Oakland. 24-20 was the final there. Trailing 16-7 after three quarters at Green Bay, San Francisco got a trio of field goals, then won 23-16 on the first possession of overtime. An 11-yard pass from Lewis Reado to Dave Yates got it done. Blake Deshell rushed for a league-high this season of 190 yards, helping Kansas City emphatically stop Cleveland's win streak by a 29-14 count. A 98-yard INT return by Oscar Everett was the key play for Houston. They finished strong to beat Tennessee, 23-9.

Morale Report: Whetstone is downright angry and I officially don't care. Latest information I have is that there are three better backup centers available on the free-agent market. He can go wherever he pleases in the offseason.

Injury Report

** LB Lincoln Adams, CB Amari Harding are back to full health.

** CB Roman Hartl(Sprained Knee) -- P(1)
** WR Jaylen Harlan(Knee Contusion) -- P(1)
** LB Bruce Small(Broken Fibula) -- P(1)
** WR Roosevelt Delery(Strained Foot Ligament) -- P(2)
** OT Tanner Farr(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- O(2)
** DE Alexis Covington(Separated Shoulder) -- O(3)
** G Colin Briggs(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- O(5)
** CB Nickolas Berggren(Turf Toe) -- D(??)

Biggest concern now is definitely the offensive line. At least Farr won't be out long; he's as good as any player we have at any position. Small looks set to play his first game this year; we'll keep Delery out for at least another week as the rest of the receivers are healthy.

Brian Swartz · 01-07-2017, 09:13 PM

Week 9: Chicago(5-2) @ Detroit(4-3)
Line: Detroit by 1

Preview: A huge game here obviously. Win and we're tied for the division lead at the halfway point of the year. Lose and we're 2 games plus the tiebreaker behind. We lost 27-23 on the road in the first meeting. With Raul Nunn(#2 in passer rating) and J.T. Meehan(#3-rated) slinging the ball all over the field you can be sure there will be plenty of points. Joseph Davis is up to 9th in rushing yards now and on pace for 1000; Moe Riddols for the Bears is third and averaging over 6 per carry. Neither defense is good, but Chicago's at least been average against the run. Six of the seven linebackers, already a patchwork unit, are banged up for the Bears.

We've won two in a row, but are 0-2 in the division. A must-win here if we're going to challenge Chicago this season.

** They got the ball first and tore through us like tissue paper. Only one third down the whole drive, on 3rd-and-goal from the 3. Pritchett hurried Meehan into his only errant pass of the drive, and the Bears settle for a 20-yd kick by Jorge Rice. That's a gift in my book. Chicago 3, Detroit 0, 7:44 1Q

** Raul Nunn's first pass, on our first play from scrimmage, is intercepted by Riddick Mozart. He takes it back 36 yards for a TD. So much for a good start here. Chicago 10, Detroit 0, 7:34 1Q

** Bailey shakes free for a long run after the catch; his 40-yarder sets up Chandler Catanzaro for a long field goal attempt, but it's just short.

** Another good drive by Chicago, but we stop them thanks to Willie Irvin's second sack in as many games. No change in the score through the end of the first quarter. A quarter in which we did not even try to get the ball to Davis once. Grrr.

** Riddols fumbles inside the Chicago 20 early in the second quarter, second Bears fumble today but for the second time they get it back.

** After Davis turns a short gain into more than 30 midway through the second quarter, we move into Chicago's half and Nunn throws another pick. Darren Robbins returns this one to midfield. After Riddols drops a third-down pace, they settle for a 33-yard FG from Rice. Chicago 13, Detroit 0, 5:27 2Q

** In the final minute, Nunn threw yet another interception at midfield trying to get some points on the board. A couple of underneath passes to Carter Ritter later, his first receptions of the game, and Rice boots a 51-yarder as time expires. Figures.

** 16-0 Bears at the half. 13 points off the three interceptions. They've run it 17 times, we've only run it twice. Not real hard to find the storyline here; outcoached and outexecuted. We deserve to lose, but there's still a half to play.

** Chandler Catanzaro's second 47-yard attempt of the day is just long enough to start the third, and we get on the board. That drive was a struggle, some fine plays but also a couple of sacks. Chicago 16, Detroit 3, 9:50 3Q

** On Chicago's second play of the half, Amari Harding makes a nice break on a pass and gets our first turnover of the game. A 44-yard pick-six, and we're back in this just like that. Chicago 16, Detroit 10, 8:34 3Q

** One of our best defensive series' of the year gets us a three and out, then a big gainer to Ernie Snodgrass gets the offense moving. Eventually we stall again, and Catanzaro converts from 32, inching us closer. Chicago 16, Detroit 13, 3:14 3Q

** A couple of lapses in coverage allow some big gains, and Chicago gets in scoring position again. Their tight end can't hang on to a third-down pass ... but Harding is called for holding. First and goal Bears. Two plays later, J.T. Meehan finds Ritter for the score. That could well have been a game-deciding sequence. Chicago 23, Detroit 13, 13:42 4Q

** A drop and a false start sabotage our next drive, so we pin them deep ... only to watch Bears punter Ruben DeJesus uncork a 65-yarder to reverse our efforts.

** Several first downs on the ground chew up most of the clock, and with it our hopes. However, Ellis Shumway blocks the eventual punt, giving us a chance to make something of this game at the Chicago 29 with just over three to play. We decide that now is the time to ram Joseph Davis down their throat. It eventually works for a 2-yard TD on his fourth straight carry ... but where was that the rest of the game? Chicago 23, Detroit 20, 1:03 4Q

** An onside kick fails. We stop them, but after the punt we've got about 50 yards to go in 20 seconds to have a chance at a tying kick. Nunn finds Jaylen Harlan in space over the middle ... 35 yards across midfield but he can't get out of bounds and that's that.

Final Score: Chicago 23, Detroit 20

A second close defeat, but we deserved to lose this. They were smarter, and they executed better.

Passing: Raul Nunn(26-41, 317, 0 TD, 3 INTs)
Rushing: Joseph Davis(8-24, TD)
Receiving: Christian Bailey(7-94); Jaylen Harlan(6-69); Nick Chapman(5-38)
Defense: Charles Watt(9 tkls); Bruce Small(9 tkls); Eugene Walley(6 tkls). Amari Harding had the lone interception, and our only sack was courtesy of Willie Irvin. A couple hurries for Lowe, a couple knockdowns for Hennessee

Harlan is the emergency receiver; seems Nunn can make use of anyone. He was the only 300-yard passer in the league this week, but it's the first-half interceptions that are going to be remembered. And three carries for Davis in the first three quarters combined are just inexcusable.

Other Games: Alvin Shea does it again. In a tie game with Denver, he throws a 26-yard TD with three minutes left to give Cincinatti a 23-16 win. Meanwhile Philip Whalen made two 57-yard field goals for the Bengals. They are just crazy in the ways they find to win games. Seattle fell behind 20-0 in the first half against Green Bay, then rallied for a 24-23 win. Three TD passes by Stitt, and then a short field goal in the fourth to win it. Ernest Fleming was 12-31 with 4 picks for Buffalo as they lose 12-3 to Jacksonville. The calls for Tribble are getting louder ...

Indianapolis led 20-7 over New England going into the 4th, then barely survives 23-20 in overtime. Anthony Kraut's 53-yd punt return gives Carolina yet another victory, 17-13 over the Saints. San Diego edged Oakland 16-10 in a battle of two of the worst teams this year; the Chargers get their first victory, leaving only the Minnesota Vikings winless as they were stomped by San Francisco. Philadelphia blanks Washington 23-0, the first shutout I remember seeing this season. The 1-8 Redskins are pretty pathetic right now.

Morale Report:

A couple of linebackers, Harris Boult and Jace Ogden, are a little unhappy with the new situation now that Small is back in the lineup. That'll probably work itself out though, unless we have unnatural good fortune with health.

Injury Report:

** Several players are back to full strength. CB Roman Hartl, WR Larry Winzenfried, WR Jaylen Harlan, and LB Bruce Small. Winzenfried missed much of the Chicago game after a first-half injury, the others were already banged up.

** WR Roosevelt Delery(Strained Foot Ligament) -- P(1)
** OT Tanner Farr(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- P(1)
** DT Abel Kirchhoff(Sprained Knee) -- Q(2)
** LB Cornelius Pritchett(Hyperextended Knee) -- D(2)
** DE Alexis Covington(Separated Shoulder) -- Q(2)
** OG Collin Briggs(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- O(5)
** CB Nickolas Berggren(Turf Toe) -- D(??)

The defensive front will be a little rough now with the oft-injured Kirchhoff and Pritchett needing to miss at least our next game. The rest of the team is pretty healthy though, with Briggs the only significant injury elsewhere.

Brian Swartz · 01-07-2017, 09:14 PM

Playoff Picture & Odds

It's Week 10, just over halfway throught the season. Here's how things look right now.

AFC Standings

1. Baltimore(7-2, North, 98%)
2. Denver(5-3, West, 76%)
3. Jacksonville(5-3, South, 83%)
4. New England(4-4, East, 31%)
5. Cincinatti(5-3, 77%)
6. Houston(5-3, 28%)

7. Indianapolis(5-4, 40%)
8. Cleveland(4-4, 15%)
8. Kansas City(4-4, 48%)
8. Miami(4-4, 55%)
8. New Jersey(4-4, 28%)
12. Tennessee(4-5, 19%)
13. Pittsburgh(3-5, 2%)
14. Buffalo(2-6, 1%)
15. Oakland(2-7, negl.)
16. San Diego(1-7, negl.)

Almost anyone could win the AFC at this point. Even Baltimore, despite a 6-0 start, has struggled. Nobody has been consistently impressive. Really looks like a second-rate conference in comparison right now, but that also could make the playoff race pretty exciting. I'm rooting for the Bengals here. QB Alvin Shea's 4th-quarter heroics are one of the top stories this season. Don't sleep on the Browns either; they lost their first three games but have been moving up ever since. The odds projections sure doesn't like them right now though.

New England's chances look so bad largely because they are tied with Miami and New Jersey for the AFC East. That'll switch around multiple times I'd bet, but it doesn't look like a wild card is coming out of there.

NFC Standings

Percentage given is the standard one from the playoff probabilities.

1. Los Angeles(7-1, West, 98%)
2. Chicago(6-2, North, 96%)
3. Dallas(6-3, East, 86%)
4. New Orleans(5-3, South, 45%)
5. San Francisco(6-2, 70%)
6. Seattle(6-2, 49%)

7. Carolina(5-4, 47%)
8. Arizona(4-4, 19%)
8. Atlanta(4-4, 18%)
8. Detroit(4-4, 48%)
8. New York(4-4, 20%)
12. Philadelphia(4-5, 2%)
13. Green Bay(3-5, negl.)
13. Tampa Bay(3-5, 1%)
15. Washington(1-8, none)
16. Minnesota(0-8, none)

The Vikings have the 'honor' of still being in the chase for our '08 mark of going a whole season winless. Average game for them so far is a 28-18 loss. Along with the Redskins, they are the only two teams that have been so bad it's essentially over for them already. Meanwhile Arizona, the preseason prohibitive championship favorite, is down to a 1-in-5 shot, last in the West, toughest division in the league.

Despite our record, Detroit is one of four 'coin-flip' teams right now. Why? Well, we've played the toughest schedule of anyone so far, and it's not close. Two games against Minnesota, another against Buffalo, and none against teams with a winning record. 5 of 8 are on the road, but we've got a shot at making up some ground. If we do, we'll have the tiebreaker against either San Francisco or Seattle, having beaten both of them recently. Another factor in our corner is we haven't lost by more than a touchdown ... though in some cases that's just been late-game padding of the score.

Bottom line is, the Lions definitely have a chance a getting to the post-season. We've got to be sharp every week though, because there won't be much margin for error. There aren't any games left we aren't capable of winning though.

Brian Swartz · 01-07-2017, 11:20 PM

And Detroit's real-life playoff record goes to 1-13. I can take solace in the fact that no matter how slowly and methodically I progress in this project, I'll win the Super Bowl far sooner than the real Lions will. Even if it takes decades.

Brian Swartz · 01-16-2017, 01:44 PM

Week 10: Detroit(4-4) @ Arizona(4-4)
Line: Arizona by 1

Preview: This is a must-win for the Cardinals, and nearly so for us. Both teams are on the outside of the playoff picture, and need a big finish. Arizona is last in the NFC West, by far the toughest division in the league. After being picked in the pre-season as the prohibitive favorite to win the title, they are having a rough year compared to those expectations. Everybody they have lost to though is current a playoff team(Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle twice). A home loss to the Rams, 20-13, was really damaging last week. They've dropped two straight and three of four.

One of the problems has been the passing game. QB Barry Buchanan is nearly on the same pace as last year in terms of yards, but has just 8 TDs to 4 INTs(a blistering 33 and 3 a year ago). He's one of the best in the game though, particularly effective on third down and downfield patterns. Marquis Copley(555 yards, 4 TDs, 4.08 ypc) is the primary rusher and mostly an inside runner. WR Tim Hancock(37-394-2) and TE Liam McDonald(27-281) are the top receivers for the team. One major blow to the offense has been the loss of G J.C. McKenzie, but C Giovanni Barnes is one of the best and RT Taylor Small is quite good as well. Really though it's on Buchanan, who simply needs to step it up; he doesn't have great weapons, but enough that this offense should be putting up bigger numbers than it has with his abilities.

Defensively they run a 4-3 in Arizona, with Eric Alford, the top lineman, out with a bad ACL injury. Darrell Stiles and Leroy Cope are a couple of pretty good inside tackles, but the ends are really weak right now. An MCL tear for one of the best linebackers in the league, Raymond Lindquist, ended his season in just the third game of the year. Led by Joe Hoover(53 tackles this year) in the middle, it's still a good group but only a shadow of what it was. CB Ezekiel Morris and SS J.R. McCarthy are among the best in the league in what is a fine secondary as well.

So far this year Arizona has the best run defense, and the worst pass defense in the league. The latter simply doesn't make sense when you look at their personnel. They struggle to bring consistent pressure, but from a coverage point of view they should do quite well. Expect that we'll need Nunn to continue those struggles and put up quite a few points in order to win this one. No question Arizona has the better players in this matchup.

** Arizona looked good to start on the first drive of the game. Good pressure up the middle from Lowe, who had a sack, and Kirchoff eventually stalled them. Clayton McDaniel connects from 45 to open the scoring. Arizona 3, Detroit 0, 10:35 1Q

** On their next possession, Buchanan played a supporting role as they rammed Marquis Copley down our throats repeatedly and the defense could do nothing about it most of the time. He gets the first TD of the game from 4 yards out to finish off a long, 96-yard drive. Arizona 10, Detroit 0, 14:52 2Q

** Our best drive of the game so far follows, with the usual emphasis on short passes to various targets. It stalls in the red zone tough, and Chandler Catanzaro does the honors from 32 yards out. Arizona 10, Detroit 3, 9:40 2Q

** Once again our defense is helpless as they march down the field ... but then a fumble offers us a gift. LB Jace Ogden picks it up and returns it 82 yards to paydirt! It's a gift, but we'll definitely take it. Arizona 10, Detroit 10, 5:25 2Q

** The assault continues, this time on a 7-yard pass from Buchanan to Sergio Clayton out of the backfield. Arizona 17, Detroit 10, 2:11 2Q

** At the half, rushing yards are 149-14. That pretty much tells the story. Aside from the fumble return, we've been dominated here. Raul Nunn is 11 of 21 and has had his moments, but not the usual success. So far, Arizona looks every bit the part to us of best team in the league, records notwithstanding.

** Jaylen Harlan takes the kickoff to start the second half, and returns it 96 yards for the score! Incredibly, we are tied again despite how badly things have gone overall. Arizona 17, Detroit 17, 14:31 3Q

** Arizona's first three penalties of the game are all on their next possession. Our defense steps it up against the run as well. We get a stop, and all of a sudden it feels like we might be in this game ...

** A tough drive ends with Nunn finding Christian Bailey for a 7-yard score. Detroit 24, Arizona 17, 4:21 3Q

** With the running game, no longer working, Barry Buchanan makes a number of good completions to lead Arizona down the field. Then Copley gets in again on a draw from 6 yards out. Arizona 24, Detroit 24, 9:15 4Q. Time to see if we have another drive left in us.

** After a 3-and-out, it looked like we were in a losing field-position situation. Next possession, Nunn found Ernie Snodgrass on 3rd down from our own 5, second time Snodgrass has gotten us out of jail today. From there it was the Raul Nunn show, ripping off chunks of yardage to seemingly anyone in a Lions uniform. Gayle, Bailey, Winzenfried ... Joseph Davis from six yards away for the go-ahead score! Detroit 31, Arizona 24, 1:13 4Q

Final Score: Detroit 31, Arizona 24

The Cardinals just ran out of time on their final drive. After the kickoff return tied it in the third quarter we were a completely different team. Outgained 453-293(187-41 rushing), we should have lost but didn't. Seems Arizona continues to be supremely talented underachievers.

Passing: Raul Nunn(25-36, 271, 2 TDs) -- 14 of 15 in the second half!
Rushing: Joseph Davis(7-9); Brett Reese(4-19)
Receiving: Karl Gayle(5-56); Joseph Davis(5-46, TD); Ernie Snodgrass(4-59); Larry Winzenfried(4-39); Nick Chapman(4-42). That's spreading it around.
Defense: Bruce Small(14!! tkls); Eugene Walley(11 tkls); Amari Harding(8 tlks); Lincoln Adams(6 tkls). Jace Ogden had the fumble return, Harold Lowe and Joey Hennessee had our two sacks. First one for Hennessee, and it came on the final drive costing Arizona a crucial timeout.

Other Games: Seattle beat Chicago 19-13 in a hard-fought game between two teams that could well meet again in the playoffs. Two second-half TD passes by Bryce Stitt featured as the Seahawks rallied at home while stifling the Bears' attack. Dak Prescott completed 25 of 28 passes to help Dallas crush Philadelphia 35-16. The Eagles did not score in the second half. Kansas City held Denver to just 158 yards in a narrow 20-17 win; key game between playoff hopefuls there. Minnesota's futility continues as Green Bay throttles the Vikings 30-14. Two TD runs by Tito Spragan, one the winning score in the final quarter, allow New Orleans to escape Tampa Bay with a 19-13 win. New York led 10-7 after three quarters in Atlanta, thanks to an INT return by Frank Schwartz, but the Falcons get scores running and receiving in the final frame from Cooper Faircloth and a deceptively large 27-10 win. Cleveland's push hits a snag as they are manhandled 24-10 at home by Pittsburgh. The final game was a huge one as well, and a statement. The Los Angeles Rams crushed San Francisco 37-13 in a game that should have been much closer, staking their claim to the frontrunner spot in the NFC.

Tampa fans are now calling for second-year player Thurman Davis to take over the QB duties for 35-year-old Nick Fletch, as the 3-6 Buccaneers are all but out of the playoff picture.

Morale Report: Nothing new

Injury Report:

** WR Roosevelt Delery and T Tanner Farr are now back to full health.

** DT Abel Kirchhoff(Sprained Knee) -- P(1)
** LB Cornelius Pritchett(Hyperextended Knee) -- P(1)
** DE Alexis Covington(Separated Shoulder) -- P(1)
** DE Willie Irvin(Knee Bursitis) -- P(1)
** OT Kent Williamson(Hyperextended Knee) -- O(3)
** LB Lincoln Adams(Knee Tendinitis) -- P(4)
** OG Collin Briggs(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- O(4)
** CB Nickolas Berggren(Turf Toe) -- D(??)

We get Covington back which should really help the offensive line. Berggren, our #2 corner, is the only significant defensive injury now. With Williamson out now along with Briggs, we are now down two offensive linemen however. We will need Nunn and Co's heroics to continue.

Brian Swartz · 01-16-2017, 02:10 PM

Week 11 Playoff Picture

AFC

1. Baltimore(7-2, North, 97%)
2. Houston(6-3, South, 63%)
3. Kansas City(5-4, West, 68%)
4. New England(5-4, East, 63%)
5. Cincinatti(6-3, 83%)
6. Denver(5-4, 59%)

7. Jacksonville(5-4, 54%)
7. New Jersey(5-4, 33%)
9. Indianapolis(5-5, 21%)
9. Tennessee(5-5, 26%)
11. Cleveland(4-5, 5%)
11. Miami(4-5, 24%)
11. Pittsburgh(4-5, 4%)
14. Buffalo(2-7, negl.)
14. Oakland(2-7, negl.)
16. San Diego(1-8)

There's been some separation this week now, with Jacksonville and Denver basically fighting for that last wild-card spot according to the latest projections.

Key Games: Miami @ New Jersey is nearly an eliminator, but Houston @ Jacksonville is the big one here. Winner has control of the AFC South.

NFC

1. Los Angeles(8-1, West, 99%)
2. Dallas(7-3, East, 97%)
3. Chicago(6-3, North, 89%)
4. New Orleans(6-3, South, 50%)
5. Seattle(7-2, 74%)
6. San Francisco(6-3, 51%)

7. Atlanta(5-4, 27%)
7. Carolina(5-4, 34%)
7. Detroit(5-4, 68%)
10. Arizona(4-5, 7%)
10. Green Bay(4-5, 1%)
10. New York(4-5, 4%)
13. Philadelphia(4-6, negl.)
14. Tampa Bay(3-6, negl.)
15. Washington(1-8)
16. Minnesota(0-9)

The LA Rams are looking strong as Super Bowl favorites right now. As can be seen by the odds, the upset win over Arizona was huge for Detroit, who now has strong odds to crash the playoff party given our weak remaining schedule. Then flip a coin between New Orleans hanging onto the South or San Francisco for that last spot. It looks like the Cardinals are dead. You wouldn't have gotten much agreement on that earlier in the year. Incredible fall for them with four losses in their last five.

Key Games This Week: Atlanta @ New Orleans; Seattle @ Los Angeles. If the Saints win, they will considerably strengthen their hold on the NFC South.

Brian Swartz · 01-17-2017, 04:11 PM

Raul Nunn Profile

Thought I'd do a comparison at this point of our better-than-expected quarterback.

He's good at a lot of things, but is terrible at the two things we do a ton of: short passes and screens. Guys are constantly getting the ball with room to run on those, esp. WR screens. This year's production is only a little better than what he put up a couple years ago(before getting hurt, and then sitting behind Bridgewater for a year). Clearly not a mirage, but it's still surprising and it doesn't seem to be a 'fit' thing.

Regardless, he seems to be vastly outperforming his ratings. Much as I'd like to take credit for it, the only thing I did really is hire an OC who also likes the Erhardt-Perkins philosophy.

Then on the other side there's Joseph Davis, who averaged 19 carries for 84 yards, a 4.43 average. This year; 14-57, 4.04. He's been really up and down, but rarely gets many carries except when we are ahead in the second half.

Brian Swartz · 01-18-2017, 04:51 PM

Week 11: Minnesota(0-9) @ Detroit(5-4)
Line: Lions by 14

Preview: This just screams 'trap game'. The Vikings, the NFL's lone team without a win, come to visit while we are coming off a big road win and three more away games coming up afterwards in a vital stretch.

Harvey Carr is in his fourth year, second as the Vikings QB. He's one of the few starters in the league who are weaker on paper than Nunn. Carr is getting better, and he's put up non-terrible numbers this year(2600 yards, 12 TDs, 11 INTs). Throws a lot of picks though. Accuracy and third-down situations are his biggest weaknesses. RB Shannon Kelley is a solid back despite averaging just over three yards a carry this year, and he's out with a strained back. He was originally drafted by us, then signed to a 4-year deal by Carolina when Davis emerged, only to be released after a single season(1132, 4.55 last year). I was worried he'd help Minnesota improve this season; turns out that didn't happen, to put it mildly. Top WR Bradley Helms has a strained hammy and has only played in two games(13-283-3!). Young TE Alejandro Burleson is the only significant remaining threat in the passing game(41-466). He's more a blocker than a receiver, though, and drops a lot of passes. The offensive line is young and decent at best, with no real standouts there. No big holes either though. Might be the best part of the team going forward. Overall, the offense hasn't been that bad; poor running the ball but a little above-average(12th) in the passing game. Too many turnovers though, and they've been asked to do too much.

Defensively, it's a 3-4 and the worst front in the league. By far. DE Deron Aspell had 10.5 sacks in the past two years coming in; he's got none this year and has been banged up. The other two linemen they are starting are rookies, and Glenn Gilchrist, the other end, was a heck of a find in the 7th round. He looks like he'll be a quality starter, though he's not there yet. The linebackers are basically a catastrophe. The best of them are just above replacement-level. The secondary is the strength of the defense, by default if nothing else. CB Arnold Lowery is in his prime and has 8 career INTs, though none this season. There's nothing he doesn't do well though. SS Jesse Hamilton is on concussion protocol but is normally just as good -- he's younger at just 25 but has a couple picks already this year. These are the best two players on the roster, hands down. As a group, Minnesota is 27th against the run and 31st against the pass; dead last in scoring defense at over 28 ppg allowed.

In theory we ought to be able to score at will here. Defense needs to put pressure on the young Carr, and as long as we show up, it should be a day for some big numbers and a fairly easy win. Can't afford to overlook the Vikings or assume it's over already though.

** Minnesota started out by taking a page out of Arizona's playbook and just punching us in the mouth. We saw a lot of RB Ernie Stinemetz, who continually gashed the defense and eventually scored from three yards out. Not the start I was looking for. Minnesota 7, Detroit 0, 10:45 1Q

** After we stall, the Vikings didn't have as much success on the ground ... so Carr took to the air. Eventually we stopped them, but Morris Farr booted a 37-yarder to extend their lead. Minnesota 10, Detroit 0, 3:38 1Q

** We continue to sputter, but get a break as Stinemetz coughs up the ball, Amari Harding recovering it for us at midfield. A holding penalty followed by a sack, a consistent pattern for us so far, stall that chance as well.

** Finally got our first good drive put together late in the half. We seem to have figured out that giving the ball to Davis is a good idea(45 yards this quarter after not getting a single carry in the first), and Christian Bailey gets loose several times. The last one goes for a 10-yard score. Minnesota 10, Detroit 7, 2:08 2Q

** Harvey Carr runs the two-minute drill expertly, avoiding pressure to make several important completions. Joey Hennessee gets to him eventually, but another FG by Farr as the first half expires still adds to their total.

Minnesota leads 13-7 at the half, with both teams running the ball nearly at will but neither line able to protect the quarterback. We've shot ourselves in the foot with four penalties at key moments, while the Vikings have been nearly mistake-free. This is proving to be anything but easy; we're in a much bigger fight than we bargained for.

** A downright incompetent start to the second half. Jaylen Harlan decides to return the kickoff from 5 yards deep ... and only gets out to 11. Then we go 3-and-out. Not the way to put points on the board.

** Nunn gets us moving again after both defenses have their say a couple times. Karl Gayle, whose first-half contribution was to drop a screen pass, hauls in a 19-yarder for his second reception of the drive. Catanzaro's XP puts us ahead for the first time today. Detroit 14, Minnesota 13, 4:32 3Q

** We manage to start off the fourth quarter the right way. The defense is continuing to hold Carr & Co. at bay, and Raul Nunn scores on a 5-yard keeper. Detroit 21, Minnesota 13, 11:58 4Q

** Carr's pass for his favorite target Gus Martin is intercepted by LB Jameson Favre, returning it to the Vikings' 10 yard line. That really should take care of this. They cover everything well and we actually lose yardage, leading to a 31-yard kick by Chandler Catanzaro. Detroit 24, Minnesota 13, 9:50 4Q

** With Minnesota on the move again, Harvey Carr made another mistake and Eugene Walley gets the interception at our 20. We are stopped on three plays running, but they fumble the punt and TE Brent Harr makes the recovery at the Vikings' 34. Wheels coming off for them now. Catanzaro converts from 44 yards out, which should end the scoring. Detroit 27, Minnesota 13, 2:07 4Q

Final Score: Detroit 27, Minnesota 13

Definitely a tale of two halves here, just like against Arizona. Vikings' quarterback Harvey Carr was 16-20 in the first half, 13-25 with a pair of interceptions in the second. The defense also did a lot better against the run. Would have been nice to show up for the whole game, but the bottom line is we got the job done.

Passing: Raul Nunn(19-26, 166, 2 TDs)
Rushing: Joseph Davis(16-90); Brett Reese(6-22)
Receiving: Christian Bailey(6-52, TD); Nick Chapman(4-35)
Defense: Eugene Walley(9 tkls); Cornelius Pritchett(8 tkls); Bruce Small(8 tkls). One sack for Joey Hennessee, with Alexis Covington and Abel Kirchhoff sharing another. Three hurries and a pair of knockdowns for Covington as well. He sure makes a difference. Walley had four of his tackles on that miserable first drive, adding the late interception and a pass defensed to be our key player on that side of the ball today.

Other Games: San Francisco beat Arizona 23-16, with Dave Yates's 21-yard run with 12 minutes left the game-winner. That pretty much ends any hope of the Cardinals making the post-season, yet another close game they've let go. Atlanta led big over New Orleans, then held on for a 27-20 victory. The Falcons defense was good almost all game, and Todd Artis rushed for 107 yards. Good game in Pittsburgh where the Steelers had the upper hand on the AFC-leading Baltimore Ravens most of the day. Two big defensive scores in this one, but Baltimore got the last laugh as Earl Reinsch returned a fumble 71 yards to give the Ravens a 27-22 win. Stat of the day here: Pittsburgh rushed for -9 yards. Yuck. Luther Murdock booted a 50-yard kick with four seconds left to allow New England to escape upset-minded Buffalo, 34-31. Cody Dole and OJ Farmer both broke the century mark in rushing for Cincinatti, who has now won seven straight after losing their first three. They crush the Browns today, 33-3. Denver outgained Oakland 386-134 ... and lost. The Raiders had one good drive midway through the fourth quarter, and Tommy Gerth's 88-yard INT return in the first half did the rest. 14-12 Oakland, a massive blow to the Broncos' playoff aspirations. In New Jersey, it was all field goals and just 400 yards of combined offense as Miami outlasts the Jets 9-6. Seattle hung around with the Rams for a while, but Los Angeles exploded late in a 32-6 win. Their defense is quite impressive this year. Houston's showed up as well, giving up just 111 yards, a season-low for the league, in a 23-0 defeat of Jacksonville. That showing included five sacks and three interceptions.

Injury Report:

** DT Abel Kirchhoff, LB Cornelius Pritchett, DE Alexis Covington, CB Nickolas Berggren, and DE Willie Irvin are all good to go now.

** WR Roosevelt Delery(Abdominal Strain) -- D(2)
** OT Kent Williamson(Hyperextended Knee) -- Q(2)
** LB Lincoln Adams(Knee Tendinitis) -- P(3)
** OG Collin Briggs(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- O(4)

Delery just cannot stay healthy, but overall this is the best we've looked in a long time. The offensive line continues to be the lone point of real concern.

Brian Swartz · 01-18-2017, 04:53 PM

Week 12 Playoff Picture

AFC

1. Baltimore(8-2, North, 99%)
2. Houston(7-3, South, 91%)
3. Kansas City(6-4, West, 83%)
4. New England(6-4, East, 65%)
5. Cincinatti(7-3, 95%)
6. Jacksonville(5-5, 24%)

7. Denver(5-5, 30%)
7. Indianapolis(5-5, 20%)
7. Miami(5-5, 41%)
7. New Jersey(5-5, 21%)
7. Tennessee(5-5, 29%)
12. Cleveland(4-6, 1%)
12. Pittsburgh(4-6, 1%)
14. Oakland(3-7, negl.)
15. Buffalo(2-8, negl.)
16. San Diego(1-9)

The Jaguars are 'first among equals' as the current winners of the six-way tie for the last wild-card spot, but that's a very tenuous spot esp. with six games left to play. As can be seen, the projections don't show anybody with a particularly good shot at sliding in there, but the Dolphins are the most likely at this point. At this stage, all signs point to a playoff South showdown, as the red-hot Bengals and the front-running Ravens appear to be the class of the conference. Houston's defense could well have something to say about it also.

NFC

1. Los Angeles(9-1, West, 100%)
2. Chicago(7-3, North, 92%)
3. Dallas(7-3, East, 95%)
4. Atlanta(6-4, South, 61%)
5. San Francisco(7-3, 73%)
6. Seattle(7-3, 58%)

7. Detroit(6-4, 71%)
7. New Orleans(6-4, 24%)
9. Carolina(5-5, 19%)
9. New York(5-5, 8%)
11. Arizona(4-6, 1%)
11. Green Bay(4-6, negl.)
11. Philadelphia(4-6, negl.)
11. Tampa Bay(4-6, 1%)
15. Washington(1-9)

16. Minnesota(0-10)

The Vikings are the first team to be officially eliminated, while Atlanta now controls their destiny in the South after their win over the Saints. The Rams are now in a dominant position in terms of claiming home-field advantage. They haven't actually clinched a play-off spot, but have about a 1 in 300 chance of not making it at this stage.

The shift in fortunes of the Falcons and Saints is striking. Right now there's seven teams with a good shot of making it. One, Seattle the favorite right now, will be left out. The Lions' odds continue to improve ... but we've got to keep winning. The tiebreaker doesn't help us as long as we're a game behind the pace.

Key Games This Week

** Jacksonville @ Dallas -- Lots of inter-conference matchups, but this is one the Jaguars need a lot more than the Cowboys do.

** New Jersey @ Chicago -- Another example of the same thing; the Jets can't afford losses right now.

** Philadelphia @ Tennessee -- Chance for the Titans to get back in the hunt.

** San Francisco @ Denver -- This is the kind of win the Broncos need to gain back what they lost against the Raiders.

Brian Swartz · 01-29-2017, 02:46 PM

Week 12: Detroit(6-4) @ Buffalo(2-8)
Line: Lions by 12

Preview: Once again we're heavily favored; hopefully this time we'll start out ready to play. On the road, we'd better do so.

Buffalo is in a way the flip side of Minnesota. Whereas the Vikings can't stop anybody, the Bills have had trouble putting points on the board. They're 27th in scoring offense, mostly because of the passing game(25th, 17th rushing). Ernest Fleming is still behind center, much to the chagrin on the fans who want Tribble out there. Fleming has the skills to be a successful QB, but he's had a hellacious year(10 TDs, 21 INTs). Maybe the fans have a point. RB Glenn Rhodes(554 yards, 2 TDs, 4.62 ypc) has been pretty effective. They have a few quality receivers who are a little better than anyone we have. Damian Gipp just recently returned from an injury suffered last year, and Drew Fisk has been out since early in the season with a hip problem that he may never recover from. Young Blaine Dixon(24) may be the best of the group, but he never met a pass he couldn't drop. At most spots, the offensive line is abysmal. That's mostly because OT Kennedy Hoffman has been suspended for the year. The only other top-quality blocker is C Lamar Walters, who has missed the whole year so far with turf toe complications dating back to a pre-season injury.

Defensively, Buffalo plays a 4-3. None of the linemen jumps out, though DT Kenny Glenn(2.5 sacks) is a competent veteran. LB Patrick Washington is capable of being one of the best blitzers in the league; he had 7 sacks last year, but only a pair this season. Aside from him though, the front leaves a lot to be desired. The secondary has three solid starters out of four, though there are no real standouts. Overall though, one wonders how this defense has been as effective as it has been(12th against the pass, 8th against the run). Despite their record, Buffalo's coaching staff has really done an impressive job on this side of the ball.

Definitely looks like our best chance to put pressure on Fleming and coax him into throwing a few more balls our way. If Buffalo's defense holds up, they could definitely make this a tight one at home.

** First play from scrimmage, and Davis fumbles. Miles Shea is on the bottom of the pile for Buffalo. Exactly what you don't do on the road. Defense holds, and Brendon Fogg kicks one through from 35. Buffalo 3, Detroit 0, 13:29 1Q. Could have been worse.

** Next play, Nick Chapman is wide open over the middle, and rambles 67 yards for our longest pass play of the year, inside the Buffalo 10! We follow it up with a false start, then a drop by Bailey. Long story boring, we settle for a FG as well. Buffalo 3, Detroit 3, 11:04 1Q

** Another big-gainer on our next drive goes to Christian Bailey for 45 yards, and a few plays later Nunn hits Larry Winzenfried from 7 yards out. The Buffalo secondary sure hasn't shown up yet. Detroit 10, Buffalo 3, 7:39 1Q

** Chapman breaks free again when we get the ball next, eventually stopped after a 51-yard gain. That gives him 118 yards ... and Buffalo 22 as a team ... late in the first quarter. Eeek. Play-action to Bailey for 16 on the next play nets another score, and we're cruising. Detroit 17, Buffalo 3, 2:25 1Q

** Moving again, we get a little greedy early in the second. Raul Nunn looks deep again for Bailey, but CB Shaquille Huffman gets the interception. Essentially a punt by another name.

** Towards the end of the half, another deep one and Christian Bailey strikes again, 42 yards on this bomb behind everyone. Catanzaro misses the extra point. Detroit 23, Buffalo 3, 2:50 2Q

** Glenn Rhodes fumbles on their next possession, and Harold Lowe recovers it. Raul Nunn hits Chapman from 15 yards away for the score three plays later. This game is just ridiculous at this point. Detroit 30, Buffalo 3, 1:07 2Q.

** Halftime, and this is already pretty-much over. Unlike every other game we've played this year, receivers are consistently getting open downfield. The screens and short passes haven't been seen nearly as much. Nunn is 18-23 for 4 TDs and the interception ... for 373 yards. Buffalo has 86 total.

Final Score: Detroit 44, Buffalo 17

The main highlight of the second half was an 85-yard TD return by Eugene Walley, as Bills fans got their wish with rookie Darnell Tribble taking the field. He did throw a couple TD passes in garbage-time.

Passing: Raul Nunn(29-35, 440, 5 TDs, INT). Sean Newman came on in the fourth, but didn't throw a single pass.
Rushing: Joseph Davis(8-25); Brett Reese(8-13)
Receiving: Nick Chapman(6-182, TD); Ernie Snodgrass(5-53); Christian Bailey(5-116, 2 TDs); Larry Winzenfried(4-39, 2 TDs)
Defense: Charles Watt(6 tkls). Watt was everywhere today -- he had 2 of our 3 sacks(Covington with the other). Walley's interception was our only one of the day.

Other Games: Atlanta needed a comeback on the road to beat Pittsburgh 19-13. Landon Farrell to Van Sherman was the winning connection with a little over three to play. Anthony Kraut's early 91-yard INT return set the tone for Carolina in a 17-10 upset of Baltimore. Barry Buchanan showed how good he can be in one of the finest games so far this year; 28-33, 369 yards, 4 TDs, no interceptions. Arizona destroyed a solid Kansas City team 44-19. Too bad for the Cardinals that we haven't seen that more often. Minnesota finally wins a game ... and in grand fashion. 5 TD passes for Harvey Carr as they stomp Miami 42-13! Houston's defense continues to dominate, allowing just 106 yards in a 36-10 demolition of New York. Seattle was stunningly inept, losing 40-10 @ Oakland and it would have been worse without a punt return accounting for their only touchdown. That's two wins in a row for the Raiders after losing 7 of 8. Denver led 3-0 after three against visiting San Francisco, but gave up 10 in the final quarter to lose a tough one. Broncos' QB Connor Emtman accounted for 207 of their 218 total yards. Cincinatti's winning streak went up in smoke, exposed by Tampa Bay 45-30, and it wasn't that close. Sloppy, but exciting game. Austin Clemons' TD run in the 4th was the only time Indianapolis found the end zone; they escape Washington's grasp in an ugly 13-10 final.

Morale Report: DE Willie Irvin is a little unhappy. Thought this might become a problem eventually. He's playing well, but with him, Covington, and Hennessee all healthy, not all of them can start. Hopefully it doesn't come a major issue.

Injury Report:

** WR Roosevelt Delery(Abdominal Strain) -- P(1)
** OT Kent Williamson(Hyperextended Knee) -- P(1)
** LB Lincoln Adams(Knee Tendinitis) -- P(2)
** WR Jaylen Harlan(Sprained Knee) -- Q(3)
** OG Collin Briggs(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- P(3)
** LB Harris Boult(Pulled Calf Muscle) -- O(4)
** DT Abel Kirchhoff(Sprained Knee) -- Q(4)

We get healthier on the offensive line, and Kirchhoff is the only starter among the newly injured. He'll be missed some -- Lowe is about as good, but he can't play every down and it really drops off after that.

Brian Swartz · 01-29-2017, 02:48 PM

Week 13 Playoff Picture

AFC

1. Baltimore(8-3, North, 99%)
2. Houston(8-3, South, 98%)
3. Kansas City(6-5, West, 76%)
4. New England(6-5, East, 73%)
5. Cincinatti(7-4, 89%)
6. Indianapolis(6-5, 48%)

7. Denver(5-6, 28%)
7. Jacksonville(5-6, 24%)
7. Miami(5-6. 14%)
7. New Jersey(5-6, 32%)
7. Tennessee(5-6, 13%)
12. Cleveland(4-7, 1%)
12. Oakland(4-7, 6%)
12. Pittsburgh(4-7, 2%)
15. Buffalo(2-9)
16. San Diego(1-10)

The Houston Texans and their impregnable defense are looking stronger every week lately. Parity reigns to the degree that everyone is still in contention, even the 1-win Chargers technically. The Colts get an ugly, narrow win to take the last spot for the moment -- I expect it'll change hands at least once or twice before year's end.

NFC

1. Los Angeles(10-1, West, 100%)
2. Chicago(8-3, North, 96%)
3. Dallas(8-3, East, 99%)
4. Atlanta(7-4, South, 68%)
5. San Francisco(8-3, 92%)
6. Seattle(7-4, 20%)

7. Detroit(7-4, 80%)
7. New Orleans(7-4, 24%)
9. Carolina(6-5, 17%)
10. Arizona(5-6, negl.)
10. Green Bay(5-6, negl.)
10. New York(5-6, 1%)
10. Philadelphia(5-6, 1%)
10. Tampa Bay(5-6, 2%)

15. Minnesota(1-10)
16. Washington(1-10)

I was definitely miffed and suprised that we are still out right now, having beaten Seattle head-to-head. Looks like some 3-way tiebreaker stuff going on though with New Orleans. The Seahawks are 6-3 against the conference; we're 5-4 and so are the Saints. We've gained the game we were behind though. Not in yet, but right on the bubble. Seattle's chances of holding onto their perch though appear to be ... less than good. The projections say it's all but ours -- I wish I was that confident, but we have won three in a row so we're definitely surging. Meanwhile, the Redskins are the second team to have their hopes officially dashed.

Key Games This Week:

** Baltimore @ New England -- Both teams are likely to make the playoffs, but home field in the AFC is definitely up for grabs. The Ravens are only 2-3 after the fast start, and things could get very interesting for them if they lose this one.

** Chicago @ Dallas -- Fairly similar stakes in the NFC. Winner of this has the inside track on the #2 seed and a bye. Could easily be a preview of a divisonal-round matchup.

** Kansas City @ Indianapolis -- If the Colts want to prove they are playoff caliber, this is a great chance to do so. The Chiefs would almost have to try at this point not to win the weak West ... but Oakland is only two back, even at 4-7. Not the time for them to be complacent.

** Seattle @ New Orleans -- The Lions win no matter who comes out on top here, but it'd be better for us if the Seahawks win. The loser misses a big chance and is behind in the playoff race.

Brian Swartz · 01-30-2017, 04:53 PM

** Note: this is first week simmed after the new patches. Moved from 8.0a to 8.0c here.

Week 13: Detroit(7-4) @ New York(5-6)
Line: Lions by 9

Preview: I'm a bit surprised we are favored by this much. The Giants are probably as good a team as we are going to face the rest of the year. If we can win this one, I think we definitely will have the inside track on the playoff spot. By the numbers, they can't pass(31st) and can't stop the run(30th), but they are second in the league in turnover differential. In other words, we've got to play a clean game here on the road. If we do, we should be able to outscore them.

There's a very interesting quarterback situation in New York. Lawrence Rollo has emerged as the starter this year, adding 9 of his 16 career starts this season. The previous couple of years, he was the backup to Kent Bronson, now 30. Bronson has been the offensive captain for six years and is not happy about this ... but he's back in the lineup now as Rollo is injured. There's a big drama going on between Bronson and WR Caden Beane as well ... so a whole lot of negativity floating about. Regardless Bronson had 21 TDs with 8 INT last year, 3 and 4 this year, so he's found it hard to step in with the same success. Morris Richardson(762 yds, 5 TDs) is a pretty good running back, not a whole lot of dancing about for him but he does almost everything well. A nasty broken rip injury has sidelined TE Cornell Givens, really slowing down their attack. Rookie WR Larry Bays(30-336-3) is getting more and more attention, with Andy Flemons(58-654-2) the most productive receiver on the team. The two of them are a quality pair, but it hasn't been enough. C John Witkop is a real star anchoring the line, one of the league's top linemen, but the loss of veteran guard Lamar Frame has hurt and left a real hole. G Mercury Hutchins is quality but the rest of the line is quite bad.

A 3-4 on defense, and here the problem is they might have the worst starting tackle in football. DE Mason Zimmerman is good, only 2 sacks but he's better in the run game. The linebackers are a freaking medical ward right now. It's so bad that rookie defensive end Brent Shepard is starting back there out of position. Sedrick Consulo is the only quality experience they had to begin with; he had 39 tackles and 4 sacks before suffering a bout of turf toe. They really suck at the linebacker spot right now, and overall the front up the middle is horrible. Hopefully Page will give them a whole bunch of Davis straight ahead. The secondary is pretty good but is struggling without CB Byron Clark, who has a back issue. SS Keith Mendola is solid but having a bit of a down year.

The injury issues explain why we're favored pretty strongly here. Hopes are high for our win streak to keep on going.

** We take the early lead despite ourselves. Good defensive stop to start off, big punt return by Davis ... who would not touch the ball on our opening drive. 7 straight passes to start it, got lucky on a couple third-and-longs. Second one went to Winzenfried for 31 as the big play. Karl Gayle scores from 6 on a screen. Detroit 7, New York 0, 10:00 1Q

** They storm right back as Andy Flemons shakes free of our defense after Witkop created some holes for them to run. 36 yards from Bronson to Flemons for the tying score. New York 7, Detroit 7, 5:03 1Q

** On our next possession, we figure out that giving the ball to Joseph Davis might be a good idea. The bigs up front do a good job on that banged-up New York front, and Davis carries 6 times for 35 yards, including a scoring plunge from 2 yards out. Detroit 14, New York 7, 13:24 2Q

** Frank Schwarz has his second big kickoff return of the day already for the Giants, out to nearly midfield. Caden Beane is the second player to catch a Kent Bronson touchdown pass today, this one covering 7 yards. New York 14, Detroit 14, 8:52 2Q

** Chapman bails us out on a third-and-long, then a couple of big runs by Davis before Karl Gayle catches a short 1-yard toss from Nunn. This has all the makings of a shootout right now. Detroit 21, New York 14, 5:45 2Q

** They're on the move again when LB Lincoln Adams intercepts a tipped pass just on our side of midfield. This time we can't get all the way to the end zone, but Chandler Catanzaro gets an easy 34-yarder to finish off the first half.

** Detroit 24, New York 14 at the half. If we keep on top of the turnover battle we should have this one. Neither defense has shown up on third down; we're 4 of 4 and they are almost as good at 4 of 5. 78 yards for Davis is pretty darned good considering he didn't get the ball for the first 10-12 minutes.

** On our way to another long touchdown drive, Raul Nunn is intercepted looking for Chapman. CB Braydon Pustell makes the play well into Giants territory. Big play on third-and-long, as we double-cover Flemons, who still manages to get a 29-yard gain on a screen. Unbelievable ... but NY is called for an ineligible man downfield. 34-yard net on that penalty, and we get a stop to keep them from gaining any momentum from the turnover. Better than that actually, as Richardson fumbles on the next play and Charles Watt recovers it. Covington is down though and looks like he's done for the day. Gayle gets his second score of the day from 11 yards out a few plays later. It's been a wild start to the second half, but the Lions are in command now. Detroit 31, New York 14, 8:45 3Q

** Another stop, then Joseph Davis fumbles as we move into New York territory. Pedro Campbell recovers and returns it to midfield. Second time this quarter we've handed it over. This time we pay for it. Bronson hits TE Ron Horn from 20 yards away, and the Giants have some life again. Detroit 31, New York 21, 4:15 3Q

** After punts are exchanged both ways, the Giants put together a long drive, probably their best of the game. It gets chaotic at the end, with penalties both ways in the red zone. Another tight end gets the score, 5 yards to Ross Compton. All of a sudden we aren't feeling so comfortable anymore. Detroit 31, New York 28, 7:49 4Q

** After punts both ways, we're pinned down at our own 7 with three minutes left. After losing yardage on two of the next three plays, we're forced to punt. One time we need a first down or two, and we can't get it. New York takes over at their 40, no timeouts left but still 2:21 showing. All they need is about 25 yards to try a tying field goal. Winfred Snyder gets 19 of them ... and Covington is flagged for a late hit - unsportsmanlike conduct. Ball on our 26 now. Pretty much the worst possible time for him to pull that kind of stunt. Holding on Charles Watt on the next play gets them more yardage. The goal here, guys, is not to do our best to lose this. Just in case you were wondering. New York moves inside the 10 ... and Morris Peterson fumbles!! Bruce Small makes the hit, rookie Joey Hennessee the recovery, and we escape! Un-freaking-believable.

Final Score: Detroit 31, New York 28

Virtually tried to lose in classic Lions fashion, up 17 in the third but then the offense stopped moving and the defense crumbled, even after top Giants receiver Flemons was knocked out of the game. Shades of Ernest Byner there as they were going in for the win. Gotta feel sorry for Morris Peterson at least a little. Big, big win for Detroit here.

Passing: Raul Nunn(28-43, 208, 3 TDs, INT) A lot of short passes today, and they covered better than most teams have.
Rushing: Joseph Davis(18-126, TD)
Receiving: Christian Bailey(7-35), Nick Chapman(6-61), Karl Gayle(5-32, 3 TDs). That might be the least yards I've ever seen with three scores!
Defense: Bruce Small(8 tkls, 2 FF, PD) Runaway defensive MVP here. We didn't get any pressure on Bronson to speak of after the first drive. Honorable mention for the INT by Lincoln Adams as well.

Other Games: Big game on the ground for Kaleb Goodspead. The Falcons' ballcarrier helped Atlanta survive a late Minnesota rally, 27-19. Baltimore went into New England looking to re-establish themselves as the AFC's best, and left humbled 27-13. Vincent Broomfield's 102 yards rushing were a key advantadge for the Patriots. Zane Ogden's FG with 22 seconds left finished an entertaining, but who-cares affair with Oakland beating Buffalo 26-24. It was apparently the week of the RBs, as Drake Burroughs ran over the Packers for 155 yards. Carolina rolls 31-3. J.T. Meehan is limited to just 78 yards passing, no touchdowns, and a pair of interceptions as Dallas crushes Chicago 41-6. Nobody saw that coming. Rodolfo Sanderson(17-37, 178, 4 INTs) had himself a miserable day for the Colts, who had their playoff chances severely dented in a 26-20 defeat against Kansas City. San Diego gets just their second win, leading 21-0 in Jacksonville at the end of the first quarter and holding on for the victory. In the main game of interest to us, a pair of Bryce Stitt TD passes had Seattle leading New Orleans from start to almost finish. The Saints rallied, with a short pass play tying the score with less than a minute and a half to go, and then Samuel Roberson's 40-yard kick gave New Orleans a 20-17 overtime win. The league-leading Rams struggled, but got a 16-14 win @ Tampa Bay on a late field goal. Turnovers bit the Bengals who lost their second in a row, 38-23 at home against Tennessee, despite outgaining the Titans. Gage McGee lit up San Francisco for 349 yards passing, as the week's most shocking result saw visiting Washington win 27-20 over the 49ers. Houston failed to take advantage of Baltimore's misfortune. Their defense played pretty well ... but you have to score. Cleveland gets a 13-0 success against the Texans, who did nothing on offense.

Morale Report: Irvin's still not happy, and Harris Boult didn't like being deactivated despite being injured. Suck it up, buttercup.

Injury Report:

** WR Roosevelt Delery, LT Kent Williamson are now 100%
** LB Lincoln Adams(Knee Tendinitis) -- P(1)
** LB Cornelius Pritchett(Sprained Knee) -- Q(2)
** DE Alexis Covington(Sprained Knee) -- Q(2)
** WR Jaylen Harlan(Sprained Knee) -- Q(2)
** LG Collin Briggs(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- P(2)
** DT Abel Kirchoff(Sprained Knee) -- Q(3)
** LB Harris Boult(Pulled Calf Muscle) -- O(3)
** FB Norman Wright(Strained Foot Ligament) -- O(4)

Had a few injuries this week; apparently there's a bad case of the sprained knees going around. Defensive front will be a little iffy next week with three starters watching(Pritchett, Kirchhoff, Covington). On the other hand, at least Irvin will probably stop whining as much since he gets another start now.

Brian Swartz · 01-30-2017, 04:57 PM

Week 14 Playoff Picture

AFC

1. Baltimore(8-4, North, 96%)
2. Houston(8-4, South, 96%)
3. New England(7-5, East, 97%)
4. Kansas City(7-5, West, 94%)
5. Cincinatti(7-5, 78%)
6. Denver(6-6, 58%)

7. Tennessee(6-6, 25%)
7. Indianapolis(6-6, 30%)
9. Cleveland(5-7, 4%)
9. Jacksonville(5-7, 5%)
9. Miami(5-7, 3%)
9. New Jersey(5-7, 7%)
9. Oakland(5-7, 2%)
9. Pittsburgh(5-7, 6%)
15. Buffalo(2-10, --)
15. San Diego(2-10, --)

Four games left, and still nobody is officially out in the chaotic AFC. There are five teams within a game of the conference lead, 14 within a game of the playoffs. Nobody has separated themselves. Really it's just a matter of who is playing well. Houston's defense means they'll be a threat against anyone, but their offense can be terrible as they showed this week. Baltimore is still on top but fading fast. New England has won three of four and might be as good as anyone in the conference ... but that's not saying much. Houston has the best shot right now(36%) of taking the top spot.

NFC

1. Los Angeles(11-1, West, 100%)
2. Dallas(9-3, East, 100%)
3. Chicago(8-4, North, 94%)
4. Atlanta(8-4, South, 60%)
5. New Orleans(8-4, 56%)
6. San Francisco(8-4, 64%)

7. Detroit(8-4, 94%)
8. Carolina(7-5, 23%)
8. Seattle(7-5, 9%)
10. Arizona(6-6, 2%)
11. Green Bay(5-7, negl.)
11. New York(5-7, negl.)
11. Philadelphia(5-7, negl.)
11. Tampa Bay(5-7, negl.)

15. Washington(2-10)
16. Minnesota(1-11)

There's a clear #2 here with the Cowboys emphatically staking claim to that spot with their blowout over the Bears. Meanwhile, Detroit is still on the outside of the bubble. We've won four straight and would be tied for the conference lead in the AFC ... and if the playoffs started today, we'd be watching. Yet the projections show actually a hair higher chance of making it then the Bears -- who we've tied now for the division lead. Strange.

Key Games This Week:

** Carolina @ Cleveland -- Close to an elimination game for these two, both of whom are coming off impressive wins but need to keep winning as they have some ground to make up to get back in the race.

** Cincinatti @ Atlanta -- Another interconference game, this has two teams with winning records who are right in the middle of things. The Falcons need this one the most, as they could easily fall behind the Saints and even out of the playoffs with a loss.

** Dallas @ Tennessee -- Tall order for the Titans, but everything's a must-win for them right now.

** Kansas City @ Seattle -- The Seahawks have fallen after a fine start to the year; the Chiefs could end anywhere from best in the conference to falling out of the playoffs.

** New England @ Chicago -- Two teams with Super Bowl aspirations in a fine matchup. The Bears in particular need to get the bad memory of the Dallas game out of their minds.

** New Orleans @ Baltimore -- Another in a long line of quality matchups this week. Any win would be a good win for the Ravens right now, and the Saints have rallied to put themselves in the playoffs ... for the moment.

** Los Angeles @ Denver -- The Broncos host the NFL's undisputed best, and right now they're in by a thread. Not a particularly hopeful week there ... but LA had an uninspiring performance today.

It's going to be a big, big week upcoming.

Young Drachma · 01-30-2017, 06:12 PM

Damn, looks like you're righting the ship.

Brian Swartz · 01-31-2017, 02:01 PM

This year's RL Lions were 9-4 ... and then stuff happened. Just sayin'. Definitely going better than expected as we close in on the business end of year one though. Seem to have lucked into my franchise QB in Nunn, who continues to wildly outperform expectations and leads the league in TD passes. Building around him is the question. The defense is 19th against the pass, 24th against the run despite the upgrades. I'll definitely need more help there before I can get too excited about this team.

BYU 14 · 01-31-2017, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

This year's RL Lions were 9-4 ... and then stuff happened. Just sayin'. Definitely going better than expected as we close in on the business end of year one though. Seem to have lucked into my franchise QB in Nunn, who continues to wildly outperform expectations and leads the league in TD passes. Building around him is the question. The defense is 19th against the pass, 24th against the run despite the upgrades. I'll definitely need more help there before I can get too excited about this team.

Nothing less than a division title, come on now

Brian Swartz · 01-31-2017, 03:48 PM

Tell that to the Bears. Since they beat us twice, they have to lose one for us to win the North ...

Week 14: Detroit(8-4) @ Miami(5-7)
Line: Lions by 12

Preview: We're sort of getting used to being expected to win, though it's a bit of a strange feeling still. Miami is a team that is fading, largely due to their struggles in the passing game on both sides of the ball. A big day for Nunn and co. is hoped for here.

QB Ray Poston was never drafted and our official eval says he should be the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. 2500+ yards, 18 TDs, 8 INTs paint a rosier picture though. This is his third team in as many years after spending a few with San Francisco. He's great at throwing the deep ball and good at avoiding the pass rush, but isn't the smartest in the world and other aspects of his game leave a lot to be desired as well. RB Marquis Holiday is the only back on the team not injured, and a decent one, the best the Dolphins have anyway. 599 yards, 4.19 ypc for him so far. Efrain Dole(54-655-5) is the top wideout; the others leave a bit to be desired. Banged-up C Gerald Gosselin is quality as is LT Bill Kerr, but this is definitely a weak line overall and they've got a few injuries.

Miami is yet another 3-4 team on the other side. DE Jerry Spiller might be the best in the league, but he's out with a separated shoulder. NT Brenden Jaconetty is outstanding as well; he's not 100% but will probably play. 3 sacks in 9 games for him this season. Decent depth as well here. LB Walt Shannon(38 tkls, 1 sack in 9 games) is a standout, and Christian Simmons is on the mend and solid as well. Not a bad defensive front by any stretch. Secondary should be very good also. CB Damian Castillo has 28 interceptions for his career, two this year, and SS Rodolfo Jefferson has been hurt much of this year and may not play, but he had six a year ago. They're the best of a fine group. From what we can see, this is a defense that should be better than what they've shown, even with some significant injuries. A lot of them seem to be underachieving, which might be a coaching issue.

The more I look at this, the more the key seems to be getting off to a good start against a defense lacking confidence. If Raul Nunn can get a couple of early scores against them, we should do well. If not, this could easily turn into a struggle.

** Miami starts off with it but goes three-and-out. The short passing game goes well for us, but the running game ... not so much. Three attempts for a total of a loss of a yard on the first drive. From 2nd-and-1 at the Dolphins 36, we get an incompletion on a good play by their secondary, then Davis is shut down for no gain, then Nunn the same on a QB sneak. Miami 0, Detroit 0, 9:07 1Q.

** The Dolphins get a big gainer on a draw play to Marquis Holliday and move into scoring position. As an added bonus, we lose Roman Hartl, our top cornerback. A couple of nice tackles by Small and a third-down sack by Irvin hold them to a Nolan Alig field goal. Miami 3, Detroit 0, 5:07 1Q

** The running game continues to go nowhere, but Roosevelt Delery shakes free for a gain of 36, most of it after the catch, on a third-down pass play. Miami's defense stiffens, and Chandler Catanzaro is called upon for a 37-yarder that ties it up. Miami 3, Detroit 3, 1:30 1Q

** Another good stop, and Nunn gets us moving again. LB Walt Shannon gets a third-down sack, first we've allowed today, to stop this threat. Catanzaro is wide left from 46, and we're still tied. Miami 3, Detroit 3, 11:12 2Q

** Then we get our break. A miserable day for Ray Poston gets worse, as his pass is tipped and then intercepted by Derrick Knicker, the safety that we got from Green Bay as a backup in an off-season trade. He returns it 31 yards to the Dolphins' 4. Nunn connects with Karl Gayle for a touchdown on the next play, and the way they are struggling on offense it's looking fairly good for Detroit now. Detroit 10, Miami 3, 10:13 2Q

** Or we could stop getting pressure and covering their receivers. That works too I guess. Poston is 5 of 6 on their next possession, after going 2-7 for just 20 yards and the interception for the first 20+ minutes. Holliday scores from two yards out, and our lead is gone. Miami 10, Detroit 10, 4:22 2Q

** We waste no time in getting it back. Ernie Snodgrass is the recipient of a 11-yard score. Once again we got out of jail, this time on a 15-yarder to Bailey on 3rd-and-13, and after that there was almost no resistance. Detroit 17, Miami 10, 1:46 2Q

** No change in the score by the half. Nunn is 17-24, 179 and a pair of TDs. Davis has been ineffective. Small has been all over the place on defense, and DT Harold Lowe has gotten a lot of pressure on Poston up the middle. Both offenses seemed to be gaining steam though late in the half. The interception was really the difference, otherwhise we'd be in a dogfight here. Might still be.

** Roosevelt Delery didn't like that idea. He took the second-half kickoff at the goal line and returned it all the way for a 100-yard score! Now things are looking a lot more difficult for the Dolphins, and their crowd is despondent. Detroit 24, Miami 10, 14:47 3Q

** This game is proving to be murder on our secondary. #2 corner Amari Harding has to leave on the next Miami possession. Thanks to a false start, we still manage to stop them.

** I don't normally do this, but a brief sideline here to report on Arizona's Barry Buchanan. I noticed he had rolled up 410 yards passing and the Cardinals had 49 points. In the first half. 49-17 over Oakland. That's one of the very best passing GAMES of the year. Ahh, the Raiders. Gotta feel for them here.

** Poston gets the fish moving again, but Charles Watt has other thoughts. He tackles Grunhard for a loss, then a sack on the next play. Alig gets just enough of a 48-yard FG to close the gap a bit though. Detroit 24, Miami 13, 6:40 3Q

** Delery brings the next kick out of the endzone, hoping lightning will strike twice. It's a decent return, but he fumbles. We're lucky that Christian Bailey recovers it. Absolutely not worth the risk with a lead on the road. They blitz again on third down and Nunn goes down again, and we're forced to punt. The offense has gone nowhere since halftime.

** Ian Grunhard busts out for a 37-yard rumble up the middle, and all of a sudden Miami is threatening again. We try to blitz our way out of a goal-line stand, and it works at first, but they catch us on a screen to WR Ricky Gmerek. An 8-yard TD is the result, and the Dolphins are on the comeback trail. A blocked XP will help a bit though,. Detroit 24, Miami 19, 0:38 3Q

** Joseph Davis gets a couple of nice runs for us as we try to respond, giving the offense the balance it needs to get moving. We sputter again going in for the score though, and Catanzaro makes a chip shot. Detroit 27, Miami 19, 9:04 4Q. That blocked extra point is looming larger.

** Bend-but-don't-break time, but apparently we bent a little too much. Nolan Alig blasts a 53-yarder that would have been good from a lot longer. Probably pure adrenaline there. Detroit 27, Miami 22, 4:58 4Q. Time to see if we can run out the clock.

** Delery brings it out to the 41 ... and Gayle is called for holding. Back to the 8. We didn't need that one bit. A pass to Davis loses a yard, and Delery is hurt. LT Kent Williamson goes down a play later. As many players as we are losing today, we freaking better hold onto the win. Three-and-out. Good punt by Wagner, good coverage, Miami fumbles ... but gets it back.

** 3:08 to go, the Dolphins take over at their 37 with all of their timeouts. They need a touchdown. This drive figures to decide the game. T Kerry Johnstone hands us a pair of huge gifts, called for holding on a screen pass and then a false start immediately afterwards. Poston's safety outlet today, TE Michael Murphy, picks up 20 before we push him out on second down though. 3rd-and-5 ... and WR Seth Ballard commits their second false start and third penalty of the series. It's just enough, as they beat a corner blitz on 4th down, but are three yards short. A few plays later, Davis breaks off a 15-yarder to give us a fresh set of downs, and that does it.

Final Score: Detroit 27, Miami 22

A second straight tough road win that we could have easily lost. The interception and Delery's kickoff return were crucial here. Ray Poston was very efficient after that, but we were able to hold them off. Total yardage was 334-320 in Miami's favor. Five straight wins.

Passing: Raul Nunn(27-36, 244, 2 TDs)
Rushing: Joseph Davis(15-80)
Receiving: Nick Chapman(7-46); Karl Gayle(5-25, TD); Ernie Snodgrass(4-61, TD)
Defense: Charles Watt(10 tkls, 2 sacks). Watt was fantastic today. Eugene Walley(7 tkls). Irvin had another sack, and Knicker the interception. Small had only four tackles, but all of them in key situations.

Other Games:

** Arizona cruised the rest of the way to finish off Oakland 52-25. 123 yards by Wolfsmith, and Buchanan sat after his ridiculous first half(20-25, 410 yards, 4 TDs).

** An INT return by Joseph Plummer was the difference in this week's 'why do they even play these games' nominee. 1-11 Minnesota takes down 2-10 Buffalo, 20-13. Main takeaway here is that the #1 pick in the draft is up for grabs again.

** A second straight solid performance by Carolina, 19-9 winners over Cleveland. The Panthers aren't there yet, but they are doing their best to force their way back into the NFC playoff race.

** A pair of late field goals by Jalen Urquiola, one in overtime, contribute to an improbable upset. Tennessee wins it over Dallas, 22-19, and the Cowboys suffer a real letdown after the big Chicago win a week ago.

** Indianapolis went from a 10-3 lead on the road against New York to losing in less than two minutes. After the Giants tied it, a punt return shortly afterwards by Larry Bays were the game's final points. New York gets the 17-10 decison.

** Wild finish in Seattle. Kansas City scores twice in the final three minutes, the last one being a 24-yard field goal by Vinny Fullerton. That's the winning count, 23-21, a second straight heartbreaker for the fading Seahawks.

** For three quarters the Chicago Bears continued to struggle, scoring just three points. Then, they exploded. Meehan directed two scoring drives, then Alec Crosco had not one but two pick-sixes for Chicago as the Patriots tries to respond. A crushing comeback for a 34-17 final leaves the Bears elated and New England stunned.

** Baltimore showed it can still be good today. Tough and efficient on both sides of the ball, they stop New Orleans 20-6.

** Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh stunk it up for a combined 407 yards of offense. The Bucs got all the breaks in this one at home, and take a 19-0 shutout.

** Denver survives a late rally by Los Angeles and manages a 33-27 win. The Rams were listless most of the game but seemed to wake up late. Too late, as it turned out. That's the most points given up by LA this year. During their now-snapped 11-game winning streak, the previous high was 16(San Fran had 28 in a one-point win to start the year). Lots of questions for the Rams to answer after a second uninspired showing in as many games, but they still lead the rest of the league by two in the standings.

** Houston's vaunted defense did not start well in Philly. After falling behind 17-3, the Texas rallied to tie it ... only to lose on a field goal in OT, 20-17. Another top team that needs to turn things around a bit here.

Morale Report: One start was apparently not enough to pacify Irvin.

Injury Report:

Hold on to your hats here. I approached this with quite a bit of nervousness.

** LB Lincoln Adams, LG Colin Briggs, and CB Roman Hartl are all ready to go. All are starters, and Hartl's good report made me breathe a big sigh of relief as he's our top cover guy.

** LB Cornelius Pritchett(Sprained Knee) -- P(1)
** DE Alexis Covington(Sprained Knee) -- P(1)
** WR Jaylen Harlan(Sprained Knee) -- P(1)
** LB Harris Boult(Strained Calf Muscle) -- D(2)
** WR Roosevelt Delery(Sprained Knee) -- Q(2)
** DT Abel Kirchhoff(Sprained Knee) -- P(2)
** CB Amari Harding(Sprained Knee) -- Q(2)
** LT Kent Williamson(Strained Calf Muscle) -- O(2)
** FB Norman Wright(Strained Foot Ligament) -- O(3)
** RB Joseph Davis(Bruised Ribcage) -- P(3)

Not nearly as bad as I thought it would be. List is getting a bit long, but most of them aren't serious, all will be back by playoff time if we're there, and most should be able to play through this. Because we have the luxury of Irvin/Hennessee, Covington will take another week off. Harding and Williamson are important starters, but all in all we're still looking pretty good.

Brian Swartz · 01-31-2017, 03:51 PM

Week 15 Playoff Picture

AFC

1. Baltimore(9-4, North, 99%)
2. Houston(8-5, South, 91%)
3. Kansas City(8-5, West, 98%)
4. New England(7-6, East, 98%)
5. Cincinatti(7-6, 54%)
6. Denver(7-6, 87%)

7. Tennesee(7-6, 57%)
8. Indianapolis(6-7, 10%)
9. Cleveland(5-8, 1%)
9. Jacksonville(5-8, 1%)
9. Miami(5-8, 3%)
9. New Jersey(5-8, 1%)
9. Oakland(5-8, negl.)
9. Pittsburgh(5-8, 1%)

15. Buffalo(2-11)
15. San Diego(2-11)

Baltimore is back on top of the heap for the moment: 2-5 in the AFC all lost this week. The pretenders also seem to be falling away. Looks like a three-team race for two wild-card spots, Tennessee being the odd man out at this juncture. Projections shown Denver having a lot better shot, nearly a lock at this point. However, nobody, not even the Ravens, have clinched a spot yet.

NFC

1. Los Angeles(11-2, West)

2. Dallas(9-4, East, 98%)
3. Chicago(9-4, North, 98%)
4. Atlanta(9-4, South, 78%)
5. Detroit(9-4, 97%)
6. San Francisco(9-4, 71%)

7. Carolina(8-5, 35%)
7. New Orleans(8-5, 17%)
9. Seattle(7-6, 2%)
9. Arizona(7-6, 2%)
11. Green Bay(6-7, none)
11. New York(6-7, 1%)
11. Philadelphia(6-7, 1%)
11. Tampa Bay(6-7, negl.)

15. Washington(3-10)
16. Minnesota(2-11)

What a fall for the New Orleans Saints. A week ago they had won a hard-fought victory over Seattle, and were leading their division. Now they are third and out of the playoffs -- after losing a road game at AFC-leading Baltimore. It's far from over for them, but not a good week. Meanwhile, Detroit is not only in now, but part of a five-way tie for the #2 seed! My how the fates have changed.

The Rams actually clinched their spot a week ago, but I forgot to list them that way. After that, it's just a question of how they fall. There's a strong probability that the current division leaders will remain where they are. Dallas/Chicago in the #2 spot is the only real 'coin-flip'. Despite the Cowboys win a couple weeks ago, they have the tougher schedule remaining.

By far the most likely scenario for Detroit right now is a road wild-card game @ Atlanta. We didn't play the Falcons this year, but thinking about that too much just yet is definitely putting the cart ahead of the horse. We're back home at Ford Field for a couple of games now, and none of the speculation matters if we don't keep taking care of business.

Brian Swartz · 02-01-2017, 01:53 PM

Week 15: Green Bay(6-7) @ Detroit(9-4)
Line: Lions by 12

Preview: This is a rematch of our low point of the season. We visited Lambeau after our bye week, and lost our second straight game to fall to 2-3. Since then we've won 7 of 8. The score was 41-34. A huge game by Nunn was nullified by four turnovers. The defense had it's issues, but without the giveaways we would have won fairly easily. It'll be in the high 60s, a lot warmer than our recent games have been.

Neither team has a quality defense, but we've been better offensively and the Packers are definitely worse on that side(25th against the pass, 28th vs. the run). Part of their offensive struggles though are due to injuries. QB Percy Lynn is almost back from a broken arm and could play. RB Lamar Meyer is done for the season with a high ankle sprain. Green Bay has a ridiculous 15 offensive linemen on the roster due to all the injuries there. So one would think we'll have better luck slowing them down.

DE Kevin Griffin and LB Peter Greer are a couple of key starters out on the defensive side, but they aren't looking nearly as bad there. Still, their roster really makes me thankful when compared to ours. I don't expect another 600-yard day by the offense, but they really shouldn't need it. We should come out on top if we can avoid the mistakes.

** Took about four plays to screw up that plan. Nunn was sacked by DT Alex Holmes, fumbled, and LB Chandler Harding gobbled it up, returning it to our 24. The blitzing of Charles Watt showed up for the second week in a row. A sack followed by a hurry left him with almost single-handed credit for holding them to a field goal. Green Bay 3, Detroit 0, 10:52 1Q

** Next possession, we get just over midfield but then stall ... and the Packers block the punt. Why do we turn into incompetent ninnies against these guys?! They take over at the Detroit 39. They push inside the 10, but it looks like we had them stopped ... until Percy Lynn finds their top receiver, Ezekiel Conway, for a 12-yard score. Green Bay 10, Detroit 0, 4:11 1Q. A nightmarish start.

** We pretty much had to have points on the next drive and we got them. Nunn was perfect, eventually hooking up with Karl Gayle for an 8-yard score. It was one of those nononononononogreatthrow plays, as Gayle, who has become Raul's favorite target down here, was double-covered but it didn't matter. Green Bay 10, Detroit 7, 14:22 2Q. We've gotten our teeth into game finally.

** The good feelings didn't last that long. The Packers marched right down the field, this time with no gift of great starting position. Only a couple of penalties in the red zone kept them from another touchdown. Jerome Stanton hit a 29-yarder to push their lead a bit regardless. Green Bay 13, Detroit 7, 9:18 2Q

** After a big 35-yard run by Davis, we sputter and are forced to punt. Definitely not looking like another offensive explosion. We're in real trouble the way this game is going, turnovers or no. After a stop, we get a real surprise as Ronnie Banks shows off more speed than I thought he had, outrunning the Packers defense en route to a 46-yard touchdown! Detroit 14, Green Bay 13, 5:10 2Q. Could use a couple more runs like that from our third-stringer who is only even active due to our usual fullback Wright being injured.

** Still 14-13 at the half. The miscues have cost us but we hold a pretty good edge in total yards. Both teams are running the ball well. Green Bay had a couple of solid drives but overall is not finding the same success we are through the air. This still could go either way of course.

** The Packers went three-and-out, and then we embarked on a long, clock-eating drive. Twice Joseph Davis caught short passes out of the backfield to convert on third down. We couldn't quite finish it off though, and settled for a short Catanzaro field goal. Detroit 17, Green Bay 13, 5:57 3Q

** Our sometimes forgotten corner, Nickolas Berggren, intercepts Lynn on the very next play from scrimmage. He's tackled right away, but that might be our chance to break this game open. Once again we're forced to settle for three, this kick from 31 yards. We've controlled this game for the last couple of quarters, but not getting touchdowns here might catch up to us. Detroit 20, Green Bay 13, 3:50 3Q

** Both defenses hold at least once, but the Packers muster the next significant drive. Conway gets free over the middle, and they move into Lions territory early in the 4th. They elect to go for it on 4th down, but can't block Harold Lowe coming up the middle on consecutive plays to break things up. Big stop there by our defense.

** Two plays later, Davis basically ends the competitive phase of this game with our longest run from scrimmage. 71 yards he goes, a big hole up the middle and then he ran over or around everyone else. Detroit 27, Green Bay 13, 11:25 4Q

** A coverage breakdown eventually leads to another Stanton field goal, but I was lot more concerned about Joey Hennessee getting hurt on the play than the three points. We tacked on a safety later, but that was pretty much it.

Final Score: Detroit 29, Green Bay 16

After a bad start, we were in command the rest of the way really. The Packers just have too many injuries right now, and not enough depth to compensate.

Passing: Raul Nunn(20-25, 187, TD)
Rushing: Joseph Davis(21-173, TD); Ronnie Banks(3-40, TD); Raul Nunn(6-25)
Receiving: Karl Gayle(5-24, TD); Joseph Davis(4-53)
Defense: Eugene Walley(7 tkls); Cornelius Pritchett(6 tkls, sack); Bruce Small(6 tkls). Kirchhoff had a sack and three hurries, Watt another sack as well. Nickolas Berggren had our one interception.

Not a lot of yards for Nunn, but half of the few passes he missed on were drops. He was super-accurate today. This game was about the running attack though. The first time all year that we had more yards rushing than passing. Green Bay had only 231 total yards, less than 100 in the second half. After all the concern earlier in the year, Joseph Davis has gone over the 1,000-yard mark with two games to go. We still sometimes forget about him, but that wasn't the case today. Clearly HC Page and his staff wanted a balanced attack, splitting the run/pass mix evenly early on. It didn't always work, but we wore the Packers down eventually and really got some big plays out of it including a couple long touchdowns.

Other Games

** The Rams struggles continue, as they got blown out at home by Arizona, 36-14. The Cardinals are a desperate team, but clearly Los Angeles is not dominating on defense the way they were earlier in the year. This isn't the time to be heading in the wrong direction.

** Atlanta had a very opportunistic game, getting just 142 yards at Tampa Bay but still winning 14-10. Nick Kletch had 313 yards passing, but his three interceptions are what mattered.

** An up-and-down game for Baltimore ended the wrong way, with Cleveland rallying late for a 31-23 home victory. Both of Lonnie Melnik's touchdown passes came in the fourth quarter for the Browns.

** Buffalo fans were left wondering what the Bills were doing the rest of the year after they went into New Jersey and left with a virtually flawless 37-0 domination. Just their third win of the season.

** Carolina visited New Orleans in a battle of two teams just on the outside of the NFC playoffs. It wasn't a contest, with the Saints scoring early and often in a 48-17 rout. Tito Spragan(27 carries, 140 yards rushing) punished the Panthers' defense all game long.

** Dallas was the latest upset victim, dropping their second straight. This one was at Washington though, where they were expected to win easily. The Cowboys trailed most of the way but tied it up late, only to fall in overtime. 23-20 was the final. They should have won this one, but turning it over three times, including an interception in the extra session, was fatal.

** After being on hiatus for quite a while, Houston's offense roared back to life as they crushed Indianapolis 38-17.

** Another week, another big game by Travis Wolfsmith(113 yards rushing), and another loss for the Oakland Raiders. Kansas City scored two defensive touchdowns en route to a 48-23 score.

** New York led 19-0 at home midway through the third, yet found a way to lose 22-19. Philadelphia QB War Angel Middleton tossed a pair of late TDs. Turnovers were a factor, but the Giants also settled for field goals on four deep drives.

** Seattle's offense went nowhere in a trip to San Francisco. The 49ers 35-3 rout emphatically ended any hope the Seahawks had of getting back into the playoff chase.

Morale Report: RB Brett Reese isn't happy about the carries Ronnie Banks got this week. It's always something.

Injury Report:

** LB Harris Boult, LB Cornelius Pritchett, DE Alexis Covington, and WR Jaylen Harlan are all back to full strength. That should be a shot in the arm for our defense.

** DT Abel Kirchhoff(Sprained Knee) -- P(1)
** CB Roman Hartl(Deep Thigh Bruise) -- P(1)
** CB Amari Harding(Sprained Knee) -- P(1)
** LT Kent Williamson(Strained Calf Muscle) -- P(1)
** FB Norman Wright(Strained Foot Ligament) -- P(2)
** RB Joseph Davis(Bruised Ribcage) -- P(2)
** WR Karl Gayle(Strained Rotator Cuff) -- P(3)
** DE Joey Hennessee(Pulled Groin) -- D(4)
** LG Collin Briggs(Broken Clavicle) -- O(season)

Hennessee doesn't hurt us that much because Covington will just step right back in, but it's not been a great year for Briggs. Our top run blocker, he's played in eight games and that's all we're going to get.

Brian Swartz · 02-01-2017, 01:54 PM

Week 16 Playoff Picture

AFC

1. Baltimore(9-5, North, 99%)
1. Houston(9-5, South, 98%)
1. Kansas City(9-5, West, 92%)
4. New England(8-6, East, 100%)
5. Cincinatti(8-6, 64%)
5. Denver(8-6, 85%)

7. Tennessee (8-6, 62%)
8. Cleveland(6-8, none)
8. Indianapolis(6-8, none)

10. Jacksonville(5-9)
10. Miami(5-9)
10. New Jersey(5-9)
10. Oakland(5-9)
10. Pittsburgh(5-9)
15. Buffalo(3-11)
16. San Diego(2-12)

Seven teams separated by only a single game. That's about as tight as it can get. Five more teams eliminated this week, and Cleveland/Indianapolis will soon join them. The Patriots have clinched the weak East, the only division in football where that's happened yet. While it could be any of the current division leaders, the Chiefs now look like they have the best chance of taking the conference's top seed(42%). One solid team is going to be left out of the wild cards, and Denver/Cincinatti/Tennessee all have reason to think they have a good chance to make it. One of them won't though ...

NFC

1. Los Angeles(11-3, West, 100%)
2. Atlanta(10-4, South, 90%)
2. Chicago(10-4, North, 100%)
4. Dallas(9-5, East, 93%)
5. Detroit(10-4, 98%)
5. San Francisco(10-4, 82%)

7. New Orleans(9-5, 30%)
10. Philadelphia(7-7, 7%)

8. Arizona(8-6)
8. Carolina(8-6)
10. Seattle(7-7)
12. Green Bay(6-8)
12. New York(6-8)
12. Tampa Bay(6-8)
15. Washington(4-10)
16. Minnesota(2-12)

The biggest story right now in the NFC is what in the world has happened to the Rams. Even home-field advantadge, seemingly locked up a couple of weeks ago, is now up for grabs. An elbow injury to QB Doug Coffey took him out of one game and has limited him some. That's been the big thing on offense, as their backup situation is disastrous. He figures to be back to full health by the playoffs though. Defensively their secondary is banged up, but not to the point where you'd expect them to give up 30 in back-to-back weeks. They just need to get their mojo back on that side of the ball or others will surpass them.

Any Dallas win or Philadelphia loss gives the Cowboys the division crown. New Orleans is still hanging around, but they'll need help to avoid being the best team not invited to the part. Also this week, for the first time, Detroit ascends above LA to take first place in the power ratings! As things stand right now, we'd visit Dallas, not Atlanta, as the most likely wild-card scenario. Lots of football left before that's decided though.

Key Games This Week:

** Baltimore @ Atlanta -- Two of the best at least in terms of record, and both still are very much in the hunt for home playoff games. This is about as big as a regular-season game gets.

** Dallas @ Houston -- Similar game here. Dallas clinches their spot with a win and can hope to climb back into the bye conversation, while the Texans would at least keep pace atop the AFC with a victory.

** New Orleans @ Cincinatti -- These teams are on the bottom end of the playoff ladder. Neither can afford a loss.

** San Francisco @ Kansas City -- The Chiefs get a big chance here to prove they are worthy of being considered the AFC's best.

Looks like the situation will be shifting yet again heading into the final week.

Brian Swartz · 02-03-2017, 07:42 AM

Week 16: New Jersey(5-9) @ Detroit(10-4)
Line: Lions by 12

Preview: The Jets started off the year 4-2, but that was a long time ago. They've lost five in a row and we should be set to extend that misery hear in our home-field finale. New Jersey does have a stout run defense(5th), so we'll need a good game from Nunn most likely. They've been one of the worst at throwing it themselves(29th).

35-year-old Nicholas Starks appears to be in serious decline now. This will be his 162nd start in the league, but he's won just 49 of them. Still, even a year ago he threw for almost 4300 yards and 21 TDs. That's changed though this season. His production has fallen off and he's got more intercptions(13) than touchdowns(11). Bryant Downs(528 yards, 4.63 avg) is the best of an unimpressive group of running backs. He's more of a threat as a third-down receiver than anything else. WR Scott England(75 receptions, 679 yards, 5 TDs) has had a breakout year. He doesn't make big plays, but makes a lot of routin ones. Overall their receivers are very similar to ours; decent, but not more than that. The real problems here have come on the offensive line. New Jersey started the year with four players that almost any team would want as starters. It was the strength of the team. RT Sedrick Derlange is out for the year with shoulder surgery, and LG Dean Flynn has a hyperextended knee and he's out as well. There's little to no depth, so that leaves the Jets with a lot of holes.

The defensive line isn't looking that much better. New Jersey runs a 4-3 and over half the linemen have an injury of some kind. They are best on the ends. Joe Wiltshire has 6.5 sacks, but he's nothing compared to Rich Syvrud who has an astounding 18 this year! That's second in the league, and only one other player has 14 or more. Tracy Hoover and Fred Connell on the outside are good linebackers as well. The secondary would normally be an excellent one, but top corners Warren Poston and Kevin Lofton are both out; Poston has a broken arm, while Lofton is on concussion protocol. JB Enbysk is pretty high-quality safety but they don't have much else back there right now.

The Jets have the talent to be a playoff team, so it's a rough pill to swallow what's happened to them. At the same time, it's still a good opportunity for us to keep on winning and keep the pressure on Chicago to do the same.

** Davis loses four yards on our first play, and then Raul Nunn's pass on the next one was intercepted by Phillip Beattle. Two plays later, Rico Campos returns the favor, snagging a wounded duck from Starks. An unforced error both ways, and we can basically just restart now with a fresh late. Detroit 0, New Jersey 0, 13:00 1Q

** A rare holding penalty on veteran C Arturo James stalls our next drive before it can really get going. New Jersey catches up by surprise with a reverse to WR Joel Prior, who races for 54 yards to set them up with another opportunity. A risky call pays off as Nickolas Berggren gets home on a corner blitz, his first sack of the year I think. The Jets get on the board with a 31-yard FG by Sammie Conover, but it could have been worse. New Jersey 3, Detroit 0, 4:19 1Q

** Nunn got the passing game untracked in response, with multiple different receivers getting good yardage on the other end of his throws. Karl Gayle beat a pair of defenders for the 4-yard score, putting us in front. Detroit 7, New Jersey 3, 1:11 1Q

** We gave up some yardage on the next drive but eventually held, and then the offensive line really started to assert itself. They did surprisingly well creating space for Davis to run, even against eight-man fronts. After a pair of long third-down conversions got us in position, Nick Chapman dropped back-to-back passes and a long, excellent drive ends in only a short field goal. Detroit 10, New Jersey 3, 3:27 2Q

** Joel Prior burned us again, this time on a long post pattern. A 49-yard gain here to add to his big run in the first quarter. Two plays later, Nicholas Starks finds nobody open but scrambes for a 3-yard tying score. Detroit 10, New Jersey 10, 1:48 2Q

** A big return by Roosevelt Delery gives us a chance to retake the lead, starting us out just across midfield. It looked like Rich Syvrud's first sack of the day would end that hope, but Nunn was able to connect with Gayle on a deep ball, going 38 yards for their second TD connection! Detroit 17, New Jersey 10, 0:15 2Q

** The biggest difference in the first half is that our defensive front has, fairly surprisingly, been more effective than theirs in bringing regular pressure. Combined with the fact that the Jets aren't even trying to run the ball(four attempts so far), Detroit's in a good position here.

** Had to open my big mouth. New Jersey starts off the third quarter by moving it consistently on the ground. Seems we figured it out just in time, as a 48-yd FG attempt by Conover falls a little short. Detroit 17, New Jersey 10, 9:32 3Q

** Our third-down magic continues with another big play. A fairly simple crossing route to Christian Bailey turned into a lot more, eventually a 35-yard touchdown. Detroit 23, New Jersey 10, 6:26 3Q. Catanzaro blew the point after.

** Our defense took the next few plays off, and soon was facing 1st and goal from the 5. On 4th down from the 1, New Jersey elected to take the three points. Detroit 23, New Jersey 13, 2:02 3Q

** A defensive struggle ensued for a while which was fine for us. The Jets put together a scoring drive late though, with Bryant Downs running it in for 7 yards. Too close for comfort now. Detroit 23, New Jersey 20, 2:06 4Q. If we can't run out the clock, we might really regret that extra point earlier ...

** They never saw the ball again. One first down was all we needed, and Reese got it for us.

Final Score: Detroit 23, New Jersey 20

Pretty solid game by the Jets. Their defense was just good enough to make us work for most of our points. The big second TD by Gayle just before the half was really the difference. They should have been able to hold us to a field goal at most there. Offensive line was great in slowing down their pass rush as well.

Passing: Raul Nunn(25-36, 251, 3 TDs, INT)
Rushing: Joseph Davis(22-86)
Receiving: Roosevelt Delery(7-58); Nick Chapman(7-71); Karl Gayle(3-55, 2 TDs); Christian Bailey(3-47, TD)
Defense: Eugene Walley(8 tkls); Charles Watt(6 tkls). Berggren had our only sack, Campos the lone interception.

That might be the most carries Davis has gotten all year. Otherwhise a pretty diverse effort on both sides.

Other Games:

** Baltimore finished better in a fine game between two playoff teams, winning 20-13 in Atlanta. Only one turnover and very even stats both ways.

** Houston was the more opportunistic team in another high-profile inter-conference game, holding off Dallas 34-24. Max Handy's pick six in the fourth sealed this one.

** Crazy game in Seattle. Denver led 16-0 through three quarters, but the action had just begun. The lead switched back and forth multipole times, and 27 Seahawks points in the final quarter were ultimately not enough in a 30-27 OT final. They started off the fourth a pair of quick TD passes by Bryce Stitt, followed by a field goal and 73-yard INT return by Gerald Taylor. At that point it was 24-16 Seahawks, but Denver didn't let a terrible 8-minute stretch derail them.

** Cincinatti and New Orleans had a tense, defensive battle. The host Bengals led 10-7 almost the entire second half. A field goal with 11 seconds left sent it to overtime, where Phillip Whalen's 51-yarder might well have put the Bengals in the playoffs, as well as knocking the Saints out.

** Dramatic finish in Jacksonville. The Giants scored 10 points late to take the lead, but the Jaguars struck back with a TD pass with only 14 seconds left. Patrick Murray missed the extra point though, allowing New York to escape 24-23.

** It's now official: the Rams offense is on life support. A 23-13 home loss to Oakland is the most recent indignity they've suffered. Coffey was only 10-21 and could not finish the game.

** Philadelphia won at Indianapolis 20-17 on a short Devonte Conley field goal with four minutes left. With the Cowboys losing, this keeps the Eagles hopes at the post-season alive by a thread.

** Another exciting game, and one of much importance, in Kansas City. Marc Huxtable had 138 yards rushing for the Chiefs, but they couldn't get anything going through the air. Ultimately QB Kristopher Sampras is the goat here. His only interception of the game came in overtime, but Vince Harrison brought it back 73 yards for the winning score. San Francisco wins it, 33-27.

** Marcus Mariota won't have a fun week. The veteran Tennessee quarterback tossed three interceptions as lowly Washington took advantage for a 40-20 win. Total yards were 396-273 Titans, but they added three fumbles as well and just frittered away chance after chance to get back in the game. This probably torpedoed their shot at the postseason.

Morale Report: Reese is still irritated a week later, and WR Larry Winzenfried also doesn't like his lack of action. Another case where he's been able to play due to injuries most of the year, but not the last week or two.

Injury Report:

** WR Roosevelt Delery, DT Abel Kirchhoff, CB Roman Hartl, CB Amari Harding, and LB Bruce Small are all ready to go now. That's a nice list of mostly key starters.

** FB Norman Wright(Strained Foot Ligament) -- P(1)
** RB Joseph Davis(Bruised Rib Cage) -- P(1)
** LT Kent Williamson(Straind Calf Muscle) -- P(1)
** WR Karl Gayle(Strained Rotator Cuff) -- P(2)
** DE Joey Hennessee(Pulled Groin) -- Q(3)
** LG Collin Briggs(Broken Clavicle) -- O(season)

We're definitely headed in the right direction health-wise.

Brian Swartz · 02-03-2017, 07:44 AM

Week 17 Playoff Picture

NFC

1. Baltimore(10-5, North, 100%)
1. Houston(10-5, South, 100%)
3. Kansas City(9-6, West, 100%)
3. New England(9-6, East, 100%)
5. Cincinatti(9-6, 83%)
5. Denver(9-6, 100%)

7. Tennessee(8-7, 18%)

8. Cleveland(7-8)
9. Indianapolis(6-9)
9. Oakland(6-9)
11. Jacksonville(5-10)
11. Miami(5-10)
11. New Jersey(5-10)
11. Pittsburgh(5-10)
15. Buffalo(3-12)
15. San Diego(3-12)

Houston has clinched the South, and the field is all but set. The Titans still hold onto hope, but not much of it. Where everyone finishes, who plays who, is still very much up for grabs. I still like Houston to come out here, and not just because it would be their first Super Bowl appearance. Their defense is good enough that it gives them the best chance ... but anybody could win the AFC.

Cincinatti needs to win this week to get in; otherwhise, the Titans could push them out.

NFC

1. Chicago(11-4, North)
1. San Francisco(11-4, West)
3. Atlanta(10-5, South)
4. Dallas(9-6, East, 64%)
5. Los Angeles(11-4)
6. Detroit(11-4)

9. Philadelphia(8-7, 36%)

7. Carolina(9-6)
7. New Orleans(9-6)
9. Arizona(8-7)
11. Green Bay(7-8)
11. New York(7-8)
11. Seattle(7-8)
14. Tampa Bay(6-9)
15. Washington(5-10)
16. Minnesota(2-13)

The NFC field is almost set as well. Shocking to see Los Angeles having fallen all the way to a wild-card. They were something like a 98% favorite to have the top seed three weeks ago. San Francisco has been the hot team of late, but if the Bears figure out their offensive problems, they'll be hard to beat as well.

And then there's us. Detroit is officially in after seven wins in a row, the second-longest streak in the NFL this year after the Rams' 11. Who we'll play is still very much up in the air. There's a chance for us to grab one of the top seeds, but only if Chicago loses at home to Green Bay. That's not likely. Otherwhise, it's a pretty even split between Atlanta, Dallas, and Philadelphia to host us. Dallas has lost three in a row, and now must beat the Eagles to even make it in after looking like a contender. After a 2-3 start, who would have thought the Lions would be tied for the best record in the league?

Key Games This Week:

** Philadelphia @ Dallas -- This is a simple game really. The winner takes the NFC East and the only playoff berth the division will get. They have identical division records, so the Eagles would get the tiebreaker if they win. Seems a long time since the Cowboys won in Philadelphia 35-16 in the middle of the season.

** Cleveland @ Cincinatti -- First time out, the Bengals crushed the Browns 33-3. If they win again, they're in.

** Tennessee @ Indianapolis -- The Titans need to win on the road and have Cleveland pull the upset. It could happen, but I wouldn't bet on it.

There are favorable matchups for almost all of the established playoff teams, so I don't expect any more big shakeups in the final week.

Brian Swartz · 02-04-2017, 02:06 PM

An annoying thing happened after I simmed the last week of the regular season. I forgot to save the darn thing

.

As it happened, our offense had it's worst showing in quite some time. Against Minnesota, the worst team in the NFL at 2-13 coming in, and by far the worst defense in the league, we allowed five sacks, Raul Nunn threw three interceptions, and the defense only played one solid half as well. When we did get moving we settled for four field goals, most of them short ones on drives that would normally have resulted in touchdowns. Add it all up and the Vikings snapped our winning streak, 44-26. Neither fan base was happy with this; Minnesota would have locked up the #1 pick in the draft, but now they are tied potentially with Buffalo and San Diego.

In the key games elsewhere, Dallas narrowly held off Philadelphia to win 17-16 and claim the NFC East, and Cincinatti completed a season sweep of Cleveland 24-10.

Needing to re-sim, I only concerned with myself with getting the same winners for these three games, without going into the normal amount of detail. Surprisingly it only took two tries to get that right. So the details are a little different than the original result, but the same basics.

Brian Swartz · 02-04-2017, 02:45 PM

FINAL PLAYOFF STANDINGS

AFC

1. Baltimore(11-5, North)
2. Houston(10-6, South)
2. Kansas City(10-6, West)
4. New England(9-7, East)
5. Cincinatti(10-6)
5. Denver(10-6)

7. Tennessee(8-8)
8. Cleveland(7-9)
8. Indianapolis(7-9)
10. Jacksonville(6-10)
10. New Jersey(6-10)
10. Oakland(6-10)
13. Miami(5-11)
13. Pittsburgh(5-11)
15. Buffalo(4-12)
16. San Diego(3-13)

NFC

1. Chicago(12-4, North)
2. Atlanta(11-5, South)
2. San Francisco(11-5, West)
4. Dallas(10-6, East)
5. Detroit(11-5)
5. Los Angeles(11-5)

7. Carolina(10-6)
8. New Orleans(9-7)
8. Arizona(9-8)
10. Philadelphia(8-8)
10. Seattle(8-8)
12. Green Bay(7-9)
12. New York(7-9)
14. Tampa Bay(6-10)
14. Washington(6-10)
16. Minnesota(3-13)

Brian Swartz · 02-18-2017, 12:39 PM

2030 Regular Season: By the Numbers

Rushing Offense(Yards per Carry

1. Chicago -- 4.84
2. Baltimore -- 4.77
3. Oakland -- 4.70
4. Kansas City -- 4.61
5. Detroit -- 4.57

Passing Offense(Yards per Attempt)

1. Detroit -- 7.89
2. San Francisco -- 7.84
3. New England -- 7.77
4. Dallas -- 7.59
5. Seattle -- 7.43

Scoring Offense

1. Detroit -- 30.1
2. Arizona -- 27.7
3. New England -- 25.9
4. Dallas -- 25.8
5. Kansas City -- 25.0

From 2017-2026, no team cracked the 30-point barrier; since then there's been at least one every year. San Diego's 33.4 in 2028 was by the far the high-water mark.

Rushing Defense

1. Baltimore -- 2.93
2. Tampa Bay -- 3.06
3. Arizona -- 3.19
4. New Jersey -- 3.29
5. Pittsburgh -- 3.50

22. Detroit -- 4.18

Interesting that four of the five here did not make the playoffs ...

Passing Defense

1. Dallas -- 5.97
2. Indianapolis -- 6.08
3. New Orleans -- 6.16
4. Houston -- 6.19
5. Tennessee -- 6.31

21. Detroit -- 6.95

Scoring Defense

1. Atlanta -- 16.8
1. Los Angeles -- 16.8
3. Baltimore -- 17.8
4. Houston -- 18.2
5. Jacksonville -- 18.3

22. Detroit -- 22.3

Turnover Margin

1. Washington -- +13
2. Carolina -- +9
3. New York -- +8
3. Chicago -- +8
5. 4 others -- +7

T-13. Detroit -- +2

Summary

The league's best offense and a poor, but not terrible defense. That about sums it up for this year's version of the Lions. Still a heck of a thing to be the best at something.

Individual Stats

Passing: Raul Nunn(374-537, 4342 yds, 35 TDs, 11 INTs, 107.0 rtg). Nunn was third in yardage, #1 in touchdowns by a good margin, #1 in QB rating by about a mile, and middle-of-the-pack in interceptions this year. Unquestionably the biggest key to our unexpected success. When he does struggle, we tend to as well. When he doesn't, Detroit it almost impossible to stop.

Rushing: Joseph Davis(249-1232 yds, 4.95 avg., 8 TDs). Davis came on strong after a very slow start. Still about 100 yards short of last year, but he had the same amount of receptions(39) for more yards(492). All-purpose was almost exactly the same. He finishes second in rushing yards to Oakland's spectacular rookie, Travis Wolfsmith(1,528) and 4th in YPC.

Receiving: Nick Chapman(72-905, 6 TDs); Karl Gayle(62-642, 9 TDs); Christian Bailey(50-529, 5 TDs); Ernie Snodgrass(47-567, 4 TDs[/b]; Larry Winzenfried(47-535, 4 TDs); Joseph Davis(39-492, 3 TDs); Roosevelt Delery(32-426, 2 TDs)

Blocking: Arturo James might be getting up there in years, but he was a standout on the line. He ranked third in the league in run block rate with 47.9% and has a sack rate of 0.5%. That made him by far our best overall lineman. G Nicklas Bardon was the best pass protector(0.4%) but quite average in the run game. T Kent Williamson had the opposite problem, good in run situations(39.6%) but a sack rate of 1.0%. Most of the others were a little below-average overall.

Tackles: S Eugene Walley(104); LB Cornelius Pritchett(76); LB Charles Watt(66); LB Bruce Small(60); S Rico Campos(54). It must be remembered that Small missed almost half the year. A safety leading the team by that much though is not a real good sign.

Sacks: LB Charles Watt(8.0); DE Alexis Covington(5.5); LB Cornelius Pritchett(2.0). Neither Hennessee(2.0) or Willie Irvin(3.0), our two rookie ends, qualified for the leaderboard.

Interceptions: S Eugene Walley(5.0). New York's Brayden Pustell had 11.

Brian Swartz · 02-19-2017, 03:50 PM

Wild Card Round Preview

Cincinatti(10-6) @ New England(9-7)

Passing Offense: Cincinatti 13th, New England 3rd
Rushing Offense: Cincinatti 24th, New England 11th
Passing Defense: Cincinatti 18th, New England 13th
Rushing Defense: Cincinatti 21st, New England 31st
Turnover Margin: Cincinatti T-13th, New England T-5th

On paper, this just doesn't look like a good matchup for the Bengals. They don't have the running game to take advantage of the sole weakness the Patriots have.

Cincinatti Leaders

Passing: Alvin Shea(344-505, 3592 yds, 7.11 avg., 21 TD, 11 INT)
Rushing: O.J. Farmer(164-619, 3.77 avg., 5 TDs)
Receiving: WR Ernest Brantley(94-1289, 7 TDs); TE Brad Bissonette(54-446, 6 TDs); WR Brad Banks(47-530)
Defense: LB Tiger Boy Schneider(106 tkls, 1 sack); LB Winston Stevens(56 tkls, 3 sacks); LB Rufus Mason(7.5 sacks); LB Graham Brown(5 sacks); CB Emmett Pearson(3 INTs)

New England Leaders

Passing: Ken Barrett(364-546, 4106 yds, 7.52 avg., 26 TDs, 11 INTs)
Rushing: Vincent Broomfield(269-1102, 4.10 avg., 9 TDs)
Receiving: WR Melvin Mahoney(91-1151, 6 TDs); WR Abel Kelly(84-1059, 8 TDs); TE Lincoln Harper(72-931, 7 TDs); TE Garrett McKenzie(40-461, 6 TDs)
Defense: S Craig Rivers(92 tkls, 2 INTs); CB Rico Lindsay(76 tkls, 4 INTs); LB Gilbert Carpenter(74 tkls, 1 sack); DE Shannon Hickman(8.5 sacks); DE Ashton Lovato(6.5 sacks)

Injuries

Both quarterbacks are hurt. Barrett, one of the NFL's best, is likely to be able to play. Shea, who has led some of the league's most dramatic comebacks this year, and at 26 is a rising star, will either not play or be significantly limited by a strained triceps. You won't be hearing from Schneider(a hip issue that might be career-ending) or top Bengals corner Sherman Clinton(out for the year with a ruptured Achilles) either. New England is missing their best CB as well, Vincent Zuniga, and the front seven is somewhat banged up, but overall they look to be both healthier and just plain better.

Line

Patriots by 3. I think that's being somewhat generous to Cincinatti. I'd take New England by at least a touchdown here, maybe ten points.

Denver(10-6) @ Houston(10-6)

Passing Offense: Denver 9th, Houston 20th
Rushing Offense: Denver 22nd, Houston 12th
Passing Defense: Denver 10th, Houston 4th
Rushing Defense: Denver 8th, Houston 12th
Turnover Margin: Denver 9th, Houston T-5th

No secret why these two teams are here. Both of them take care of the ball and don't give away anything free on the defensive side. This looks like a low-scoring affair between two disciplined teams.

Denver Leaders

Passing: Connor Emtman(316-523, 3741 yds, 7.15 avg., 22 TDs, 15 INTs)
Rushing: Miles Swift(180-708, 3.93 avg., 6 TDs)
Receiving: WR Marshall Stromberg(65-899, 3 TDs); RB Miles Swift(45-381); WR Jackson Herriott(41-646, 3 TDs)
Defense: S Jerald Horton(95 tkls); DE Joel Boyd(53 tkls, 5.5 sacks); DT Brendan Kramer(8 sacks); DE Chase Washington(8.5 sacks); LB Moe Henderson(6.5 sacks); 3 others with 4.5-5.0 sacks; CB Tristan Ramirez(6 INTs)

The Broncos really get after the quarterback. They were tied with Tampa Bay and New Jersey for the league lead in sacks(9.1% of all pass plays).

Houston Leaders

Passing: Gabriel Joseph(175-271, 1837 yds, 6.78 avg., 11 TDs, 7 INTs)
Rushing: Heath Nichols(300-1230, 4.10 avg., 13 TDs)
Receiving: WR Edwin Hickam(71-792, 4 TDs); WR Tyrus Henricksen(67-696, 4 TDs); WR Caiden Ogle(61-588, 4 TDs); RB Heath Nichols(50-422)
Defense: LB Oscar Everett(114 tkls, 3 sacks); S Max Handy(88 tkls); CB Jake Moultrie(67 tkls, 5 INTs); S Vincent Hildebrandt(58 tkls); DE Terrell Morris(12 sacks); DT Greg Frederick(5 sacks); DE Courtney Van Meter(5 sacks)

The Texans' QB situation might be the worst in the league. They have four currently on their roster as Joseph was hurt half the year and is still not 100% -- it could be Giovanni Hall instead. None of them are better than serviceable backups though. The offense relies on balance with Nichols, and against a tough Denver defense that will be a rough sell. Houston's secondary will make it just as hard on the Broncos though.

Injuries

Houston continues to be missing standout TE Derrick Sims who missed half the season, and a couple of OTs are banged up. They're also short one key player at each level of the defense. Denver's offensive line is is a disaster right now in terms of health, and pretty much all the top players in their defensive secondary have some kind of issue also.

Line

Denver by 4. I don't agree -- I think Houston will win a tight, low-scoring game, though it definitely could go either way. With the O-line in such dire straits, I think the Broncos will really have a hard time moving the ball here.

Detroit(11-5) @ Atlanta(11-5)

Passing Offense: Detroit 1st, Atlanta 22nd
Rushing Offense: Detroit 5th, Atlanta 23rd
Passing Defense: Detroit 21st, Atlanta 7th
Rushing Defense: Detroit 22nd, Atlanta 7th
Turnover Margin: Detroit T-13th, Atlanta T-17th

Looks like a real battle here between a top offense and a strong defense. When Atlanta has the ball, neither unit is very impressive.

Detroit Leaders

Passing: Raul Nunn(374-537, 4342 yds, 8.09 avg., 35 TDs, 11 INTs)
Rushing: Joseph Davis(249-1232, 4.95 avg., 8 TDs)
Receiving: TE Nick Champman(72-905, 6 TDs); WR Karl Gayle(62-642, 9 TDs); WR Christian Bailey(50-529, 5 TDs); WR Larry Winzenfried(47-535, 4 TDs); TE Ernie Snodgrass(47-567, 4 TDs)
Defense: S Eugene Walley(104 tkls, 5 INTs); LB Cornelius Pritchett(76 tkls, 2 sacks); LB Charles Watt(66 tkls, 8 sacks); LB Bruce Small(60 tkls); DE Alexis Covington(5.5 sacks)

Atlanta Leaders

Passing: Landon Farrell(287-458, 2893 yds., 6.32 avg., 12 TDs, 7 INTs)
Rushing: Kaleb Goodspeed(247-1001, 4.12 avg., 4 TDs)
Receiving: WR Lucas Gilmore(68-748, 5 TDs); TE Isaiah Horn(52-564); WR Anthony Langlois(48-571, 2 TDs)
Defense: LB Dillon Marsden(98 tkls, 4 sacks, 4 INTs); LB Jeffrey Marrero(94 tkls, 3.5 sacks); S Neil Abernethy(80 tkls); S Erick Vaughan(70 tkls); CB Duane Larsen(56 tkls); DE Hugh Wagner(13.5 sacks); DT Dale Hudson(5.5 sacks); a few others in the 4-5 range

Injuries

The big news is that the star of the Lions' offense, QB Raul Nunn, will be unable to play due to a severe wrist sprain suffered in the regular-season finale loss to the lowly Vikings. This leaves things up to veteran Sean Newman, who has been ineffective in his limited time. The vaunted Detroit attack has been dealt a near-fatal blow here, and their ability to win on the road against a good defense no longer inspires much confidence. Detroit also has a couple of offensive linemen out, but the defense is at least healthy aside from LB Lincoln Adams. Atlanta is missing top TE Gregory Brewer as they have most of the season, and two OGs are out including Marc Mathis, one of the league's best. They've got a few defensive injuries, most notably CB Dustin Nickle who has been out half the season and is done for the year with a compound leg fracture.

Line

Detroit by 5. I wish. With Nunn, that's probably true. The Falcons are well-coached enough, though their defensive talent isn't that great, to load up on Davis and slow down our offense, forcing Newman to throw. Combine that with the porous defense and I'm not optimistic.

Los Angeles(11-5) @ Dallas(10-6)

Passing Offense: Los Angeles 7th, Dallas 4th
Rushing Offense: Los Angeles 14th, Dallas 21st
Passing Defense: Los Angeles 19th, Dallas 1st
Rushing Defense: Los Angeles 13th, Dallas 20th
Turnover Margin: Los Angeles 10th, Dallas T-24th

With the Rams in a skid and the status of Coffey in question, going up against the top passing defense in the league, it appears they'll need the Cowboys to be in a giving mood in order to come out of this one.

Los Angeles Leaders

Passing: Doug Coffey(272-424, 3182 yds., 7.50 avg., 17 TDs, 5 INTs)
Rushing: Mickey Alcott(168-721, 4.29 avg., 8 TDs)
Receiving: WR Jamie Lynch(72-844, 3 TDs); WR Efrain Moore(66-919, 3 TDs)
Defense: CB Arnold Aniston(86 tkls, 6 INTs); LB Wally Irvine(80 tkls, 1.5 sacks); S Sawyer Buck(71 tkls, 1 sack); LB Nick Prescott(66 tkls, 2 sacks); DE Ike Jordan(56 tkls, 11.5 sacks)

Dallas Leaders

Passing: Dak Prescott(389-597, 4509 yds., 7.55 avg., 24 TDs, 15 INTs)
Rushing: Al Highlander(150-641, 4.27 avg., 5 TDs)
Receiving: WR Aiden Roetzheim(104-1334, 13 TDs); TE Jaylen Turnbull(75-843); WR Leo Van Valkenberg(55-680, 6 TDs)
Defense: LB Lawrence Samuels(107 tkls, 5 sacks, 3 INTs); S Pat Anderson(90 tkls, 1 sack, 3 INTs); S Liam Mallak(73 tkls, 3 INTs); LB Roman Acree(58 tkls, 3 sacks); DE Peter Rasmussen(14 sacks)

Injuries

Coffey looks like he'll be ok to play, but a bigger problem for the Rams offense is that WR Efrain Moore will be out. That leaves Lynch as really their only big threat in the passing game. They are pretty much healthy otherwhise aside from CB Levon Hongamen, finished for the season. No excuses here; LA just needs to play a lot better than they did at the end of the season. Dallas is not sure if TE Jaylen Turnbull will be able to go, and there are multiple issues on the offensive line. They've got a lot of small niggles on defense, but no major injuries there.

Line

Los Angeles by 3. Another one where I don't really see it that way, but I'm not sure. Combined, these teams are 1-7 in their last four games each. Still, I think it'll be harder for the Rams to score than the Cowboys given the way LA's defense has played lately and the injury to Moore.

Brian Swartz · 02-20-2017, 05:15 PM

For the playoffs, I'll obviously be focusing on Detroit's games as long as we are around, but will also report scoring elsewhere whenever it happens. When we get to the Super Bowl, I'll probably to switch to reporting play-by-play. For now, it'll be by drive.

** Atlanta gets the ball first, starting at their 25 after a touchback. Atlanta 0, Detroit 0, 15:00 1Q

** A screen pass to RB Kaleb Goodspeed was the big play on their opening drive, netting 31 yards as Covington brought the pressure on Farrell but he got the pass off in time. On the next play, Goodspeed scored from 18 yards out on an end run. Impressive 75-yard drive by the Falcons and just what we did not need. Atlanta 7, Detroit 0, 12:34 1Q. Another touchback, and we'll start at the 25. The other three games remain scoreless at this early juncture.

** Three-and-out for us, Karl Gayle is a yard short on a third-and-5 pass play. A fine punt and a holding penalty on Atlanta back them up to their own 9. Atlanta 7, Detroit 0, 10:38 1Q

** Los Angeles gets a 45-yard FG from Harvey Reynolds, taking an early 3-0 lead at Dallas.

** Denver strikes on a 27-yard pass from Connor Emtman to Jackson Herriott, a big early TD against Houston.

** Good defense gets us a quick stop with only two yards gained, pinning Atlanta back. Good punt and a decent return by Davis, giving us the ball near midfield at our 47. Atlanta 7, Detroit 0, 8:38 1Q

** In New England, Ken Barrett to Abel Kelly for a 14-yard score, and the Patriots take the lead against Cincinatti at home. Meanwhile it appears Denver missed the extra point, the score is 6-0 there.

** Same story for us offensively, a couple of ineffective runs and a third-down pass play comes up short. Another punt, this one a touchback. Atlanta 7, Detroit 0, 6:31 1Q

** A 4-yard TD run by Al Highlander has Dallas in front now over Los Angeles, 7-3.

** To start the Falcons' next drive, QB Landon Farrell just barely makes it to the sticks twice in a row on third down. One was a sneak, the other a scramble. On the next series, a third-down drop by WR Anthony Langlois gets us the stop. They down a fine punt at our 7-yard-line, so now it's time for us to be backed up. Atlanta 7, Detroit 0, 1:39 1Q

** Heath Nichols takes it in from four yards out, and Houston is on the board. After the extra point, they hold a 7-6 edge against Denver.

** Another 40+ kick from Reynolds, and the Rams have cut the Cowboys' lead to 7-6.

** A pitch play to Joseph Davis gains 11, our initial first down of the game and a big one to get us some breathing room. A couple more runs take us to the end of the quarter. Total yardage so far is 104-36 in favor of Atlanta. Newman is 2 for 2, but for only 12 yards and hasn't thrown a pass before third down. I think we'll need more from him to win.

** Luther Murdock has a 44-yard kick at the end of the quarter for New England, now up 10-0 against Cincinatti. The Bengals, along with our Lions, look to be the teams in the most trouble so far today.

** Strange series next. On second down, Newman badly overthrows Snodgrass, then does well to get a third-down pass off, but Chapman drops it. Atlanta is called offsides ... but G Mackenzie Schwartz is whistled for a false start to hand them the yards back. Third-and-long again, and WR Roosevelt Delery evades the defense, turning a 3-yard route into 18. That's the kind of play we need to make things happen today. A few plays later, Newman goes deep to Snodgrass, and CB Duane Larson makes the interception near the Falcons goalline. It's basically a punt by a different name. We move the ball for the first time and get nothing out of it beyond field position, and they'll take over at their 23. Atlanta 7, Detroit 0, 11:17 2Q

** A blown blocking assignment by BJ Gibson lets LB Charles Watt get our first sack of the day and the ninth of his season, which is more than the 31-year-old had for his career before the campaign started. Nicely done for another 3-and-out. Davis fumbles on the return, which he does way too often, but DE Shaun Mahoney has the heads-up play for the recovery. We'll start with decent field position at our 36. Atlanta 7, Detroit 0, 9:30 2Q

** We're starting to mix up the run and pass more which is a good sign, but Hugh Wagner gets the better of C Arturo James to make the first sack of the game for the Falcons. A couple of players combine for another one on the next play, this one the fault of LT Kent Williamson. Newman fumbles, and we're fortunate to have Chapman fall on it. After one first down, a debacle and we're lucky to be able to punt it away. Another quality job on special teams coverage, and they're stopped at the 15. Atlanta 7, Detroit 0, 6:55 2Q

** Clayton Beamon connects from 46 yards out, and Houston extends it's lead over Denver to 10-6.

** Atlanta's passing attack gets going again, and even a couple of penalties aren't enough to stop them as they complete four straight downfield attempts. Their second long drive of the day ends in a 17-yard TD catch by TE Van Sherman, who hurt us several times in the 85-yard possession. The Falcons are now firmly in control here. Atlanta 14, Detroit 0, 2:41 2Q

** A 5-yard run by Vincent Broomfield extends New England's lead to 17-0, but the Bengals get some life when Benjamin Shields takes a short kickoff back 81 yards for their first points. Cincinatti still trails 17-7. A few minues later, Barrett to Lincoln Harper from six yards out, and the Patriots extend to a commanding 24-7 lead.

** Larry Winzenfried makes things worse with an illegal block on the kickoff return, and we start out back at the 10. Two plays later, a stunning play as WR Christian Bailey caught a crossing route with room to run, and the Falcons were unable to get to him. 79 yards he goes for a huge score, getting us back in the game and giving Newman his first-ever playoff TD pass! Atlanta 14, Detroit 7, 0:56 2Q

** That does it for the first half. We're lucky to be within a touchdown here. I think we're going to need to do better against Landon Farrell(13-15, 152, TD) in the passing game on defense, and find a way to create more room for Joseph Davis(10 carries, 33 yards) to run if we are going to have a chance. Elsewhere, New England still is in control 24-7 over Cincinatti, Houston leads Denver 13-6, and Dallas is also up 10-6 against Los Angeles after a late FG in both of those last two games. All of the road teams are currently losing.

** The plan in the second half was clearly to get Davis the ball as a receiver instead of a runner. It worked some, and a facemask penalty helped. Another penalty on Schwartz backed us up though just as we got into field-goal range. Another screen to Davis got us 25 yards on 3rd-and-13 though, setting up first-and-goal. With Williamson doing the work up front, he ran it in on the next play for the score! Fine opening drive, and we've now tied it up!! Atlanta 14, Detroit 14, 10:44 3Q

** Cincinatti has also struck with Alvin Shea finding Kody Dole for a 7-yard tally. They have a bigger mountain to climb, cutting the deficit there to 24-14 just before the end of the first half there.

** We had Atlanta boxed in after a holding penalty, but they get a 21-yard completion to Langlois on 3rd-and-16. After a big gainer on a screen to Goodspeed, Cornelius Pritchett makes our second sack, victimizing Gibson once again. On the next play, a holding call on CB Nickolas Berrgren wipes that away though. We did a better job of slowing them down in the red zone, but not enough. Kaleb Goodspeed scored up the middle from seven yards out, and the Falcons regain the lead. Atlanta 21, Detroit 14, 2:51 3Q

** A long 54-yard FG by Clayton Beamon puts the Texans up to a 16-6 lead on Denver with just seconds left in the first half.

** A short FG for New England inches them out to 27-14 over Cincinatti.

** Dallas has also added three more, moving them to a 13-6 edge against LA midway through the third there.

** A good pass rush disrupted a third-and-short pass, and we are stopped right away. Fair catch for the Falcons at their 36 on the punt. Atlanta 21, Detroit 14, 0:59 3Q

** Doug Coffey has thrown a touchdown pass, the Rams' first of the day, and they draw even with the Cowboys at 13-all.

** Denver's gotten a big play from their defense, a 31-yard pick six from Mack Kidman. They're within a field goal now, Houston still leading but only 16-13.

** The defensive line steps it up in the pass rush. Irvin, Lowe, and Hennessee all get hurries on consecutive plays after the Falcons had gotten moving again. Reggie Chandler is wide right from 49 yards, and we're still one play away from getting even again. Atlanta 21, Detroit 14, 14:24 4Q. Big series there for the defense.

** Davis rips off a 10-yard gain right away, and we get a facemask call to add to it. The Falcons get called for holding just as we were staring at third-and-long on the next set of downs. That gets us close enough for a 37-yarder by Chandler Catanzaro, as Page elects not to go for it on 4th-and-2 with this much time left. Atlanta 21, Detroit 17, 11:34 4Q

** Cincinatti may not be quite done yet. Phillip Whalen adds a 43-yard kick for them. 27-17 New England, late in the third.

** Once again Atlanta moves the chains a couple times, but gets nothing out of it as Farrell misfires a couple times just into our territory. The punt goes into the end zone, and we'll start at our 20 with a chance to take the lead. Atlanta 21, Detroit 17, 9:30 4Q

** Not a great start for us, but a 10-yard catch by Roosevelt Delery on 3rd-and-6 keeps things moving. A questionable, to put it nicely, decision to throw on 3rd-and-1 during the next series ends in Newman misfiring deep under heavy pressure. A decent punt is downed at the 15, and now we need another stop to give us decent position for another chance. Atlanta 21, Detroit 17, 6:37 4Q

** The script has flipped in Houston. Rico Wilkerson rambles 16 yards to put Denver ahead now, 20-16 at the end of three.

** On a big 3rd-and-4, Covington tips a pass at the line and we get the stop! Or not, as Bruce Small, our best linebacker, is called for holding. Really could have done without that. He's called for the same thing again on the next play, which lost a yard. Seriously dude. Use your brain. Offensive holding on the Falcons gives back some of the lost yardage, and they decide to just run as much time off the clock as possible. A short punt and a fair catch gives us the ball at our 28. Atlanta 21, Detroit 17, 2:09 4Q

** Dak Prescott has connected with his top receiver, Aidan Roetzheim, for a 3-yard score to put Dallas ahead again. 20-13 they lead Los Angeles with eight minutes to go.

** Timothy Vanderpool scores from 7 yards out, and puts the nail in the coffin for New England. Patriots now lead Cincinatti 34-17 with less than eight to play.

** So it's come down to this. Our season depends on a two-minute drill with Sean Newman behind center, needing 72 yards for the game-winning drive. A 12-yard completion to Winzenfried is a good start. Then Bailey, who has caught all six passes thrown to him up to this point, drops one that would have gone for nice yardage. DT Riddick Woodfork hands us five on an encroachment call, and we go to Bailey again for 11 more. 44 yards left, 1:32 on the clock. A screen to Delery surprises the defense, and gets almost half of that. Then Bailey again for a dozen. This is getting real, first down at the Falcons' 12 with 1:15 left. A sack by Hugh Wagner is wiped out by holding on S Erick Vaughn. First and goal at the 7. Play action, screen to Bailey ... and he scores!! Un-freaking-believable! A dramatic last-minute drive, and the Lions take the lead!! Detroit 24, Atlanta 21, 0:42 4Q

** Atlanta still has time, needing only a field goal. Covington forces one incompletion, then Kniker drops Goodspeed for a loss of four on a screen pass. A last-second desperation heave goes nowhere ... and the Lions win!

** Riddick Bates adds a field goal for Denver, pushing them to a 23-16 lead with two minutes left. There is no notable drama remaining as the Broncos surprise me with this win at Houston. Dallas finishes off Los Angeles 20-13, and New England romps over Cincinatti 34-17.

Passing: Sean Newman(22-31, 282, 2 TDs, INT)
Rushing: Joseph Davis(17-68, TD)
Receiving: Christian Bailey(9-133, 2 TDs); Joseph Davis(4-53)
Defense: Charles Watt(10 tkls, sack); Rico Campos(6 tkls); Bruce Small(6 tkls). Pritchett also had a sack, 3 knockdowns for Covington and a couple of hurries by Irvin.

Newman had a remarkable day given he was just 15-33 on the year coming in. Aside from that, the two huge TD catches and general production by Christian Bailey were huge and really validated my decision to give him a long-term contract this past offseason. Watt was the unquestioned star of the defense today, and Davis quietly had 121 yards from scrimmage and some solid special teams play. The goat was probably TE Ernie Snodgrass, who was targeted four times, some of the passes were off but he had a couple drops as well with no catches. He has one job, and was a total fail in that task in this game.

Having said that, this was still somewhat of a gift. Total yardage was 380-352 in Atlanta's favor, and while there were no meaningful turnovers, we would have been in even more trouble without recovering both of our fumbles. We played better than I expected, but still probably should have lost. 12 Falcons penalties for 99 yards, unusual for them, really made a big difference. And ultimately it came down to that final drive. Newman is now 6-7 for his career, but this is his 4th comeback win among them and the biggest victory of his career in his 7th season.

For the third time in franchise history, Detroit has won a playoff game. Who's up next?

Brian Swartz · 02-21-2017, 11:19 PM

Divisional Round Previews

Dallas @ San Francisco

Passing Offense: Dallas 4th, San Francisco 2nd
Rushing Offense: Dallas 21st, San Francisco 17th
Passing Defense: Dallas 1st, San Francisco 15th
Rushing Defense: Dallas 20th, San Francisco 10th
Turnover Margin: Dallas T-24th, San Francisco 16th

The marquee matchup is strength vs. strength: San Francisco's passing attack against the Cowboys' pass defense, which certainly held up well in limited the struggling Rams in a 20-13 win.

Dallas Leaders

Passing: Dak Prescott(389-597, 4509 yds., 7.55 avg., 24 TDs, 15 INTs)
Rushing: Al Highlander(150-641, 4.27 avg., 5 TDs)
Receiving: WR Aiden Roetzheim(104-1334, 13 TDs); TE Jaylen Turnbull(75-843); WR Leo Van Valkenberg(55-680, 6 TDs)
Defense: LB Lawrence Samuels(107 tkls, 5 sacks, 3 INTs); S Pat Anderson(90 tkls, 1 sack, 3 INTs); S Liam Mallak(73 tkls, 3 INTs); LB Roman Acree(58 tkls, 3 sacks); DE Peter Rasmussen(14 sacks)

San Francisco Leaders

Passing: Lewis Reado(348-529, 4203 yds., 7.95 avg., 18 TDs, 16 INTs
Rushing: Shawn Judge(218-940, 4.31 avg., 7 TDs); Dave Yates(144-509, 3.53 avg, 5 TDs)
Receiving: WR Maurice Ethridge(80-999, 3 TDs); WR Oscar Hauck(68-936, 6 TDs); TE Norm McWilliams(55-703, 3 TDs); RB Dave Yates(42-389)
Defense: LB Lucas Jordan(81 tkls, 5 sacks); LB Wendell Poston(72 tkls, 2 sacks); Logan Dehaven(68 tkls); CB Cedric Kohn(63 tkls, 3 INTs); DE Troy Buckley(7.5 sacks); DE Richie Olivares(6.5 sacks)

Injuries

Dallas still has issues on the offensive line with at least two would-be starters out and others hampered, but they do expect to get TE Jaylen Turnbull back. They're looking fairly healthy on the defensive side. San Francisco is where it is largely because it is the healthiest team in the league right now. The week off didn't hurt but they just haven't had major injury problems this year, and should be ready to go.

Line

49ers by 2. That's probably about right. No other team can throw two quality backs like Judge and Yates(the latter being more of a receiving threat) at a defense, and San Fran should be able to slow down Prescott & Co. while having enough balance to get the win in a close game.

Denver @ Baltimore

Passing Offense: Denver 9th, Baltimore 16th
Rushing Offense: Denver 22nd, Baltimore 2nd
Passing Defense: Denver 10th, Baltimore 11th
Rushing Defense: Denver 8th, Baltimore 1st
Turnover Margin: Denver 9th, Baltimore T-5th

Looks like another tough, hard-nosed game like the one the Broncos played last weak with Houston. The Ravens have been average since their fast start, but they're still as good as anybody in the run game. If they do what they do, control the line of scrimmage and take care of the ball, it'll still be a challenge for them to be beaten on their home field.

Denver Leaders

Passing: Connor Emtman(316-523, 3741 yds, 7.15 avg., 22 TDs, 15 INTs)
Rushing: Miles Swift(180-708, 3.93 avg., 6 TDs)
Receiving: WR Marshall Stromberg(65-899, 3 TDs); RB Miles Swift(45-381); WR Jackson Herriott(41-646, 3 TDs)
Defense: S Jerald Horton(95 tkls); DE Joel Boyd(53 tkls, 5.5 sacks); DT Brendan Kramer(8 sacks); DE Chase Washington(8.5 sacks); LB Moe Henderson(6.5 sacks); 3 others with 4.5-5.0 sacks; CB Tristan Ramirez(6 INTs)

Baltimore Leaders

Passing: K.C. Gordon(321-474, 3278 yds., 6.92 avg., 23 TDs, 7 INTs)
Rushing: Lewis Dillon(229-964, 4.21 avg., 5 TDs); Darren Dunn(151-808, 5.35 avg., 4 TDs)
Receiving: WR Matt Daniels(65-984, 7 TDs); WR Alonso Crosby(52-499); RB Lewis Dillon(49-345); TE Myron Whitaker(41-342, TD)
Defense: LB Damon De Jesus(101 tkls, 1.5 sacks, 3 INTs); CB Myron Lane(65 tkls); DT Braxton Catlett(65 tkls); LB Zachary Boyington(65 tkls, 2 sacks); DE Matt Kraus(15 sacks); DE Korey Ferguson(11 sacks)

Injuries

Denver's looking pretty good aside from having a triage ward for an offensive line. Going against the Ravens front, that might not be pretty. Baltimore is missing FB Teddy Boone and WR J.T. Cogdell, neither of them major options though. Everyone on the line and on defense looks ready to go.

Line

Denver by 1. I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with the bettors here. The Broncos could pull this off; they showed moxie in the comeback win @ Houston last week. The Ravens though are another team that can throw multiple runners at a defense, and while Gordon doesn't have great weapons to throw to, he doesn't make many mistakes either. He's a fine game manager, fitting in well with the rest of this team despite Crosby having a disappointing year. It'll take another big play by the Denver defense to win this, like the pick-six they got last week, and I figure them to struggle against Baltimore's front 7.

Detroit @ Chicago

Passing Offense: Detroit 1st, Chicago 11th
Rushing Offense: Detroit 5th, Chicago 1st
Passing Defense: Detroit 21st, Chicago 22nd
Rushing Defense: Detroit 22nd, Chicago 14th
Turnovers: Detroit T-13th, Chicago T-3rd

This is our third crack at Da Bears, after losing by four and three points earlier. Surprisingly, neither team has scored more than 27 in the previous meetings ... it wouldn't surprise me to see this one in the 30s.

Detroit Leaders

Passing: Raul Nunn(374-537, 4342 yds, 8.09 avg., 35 TDs, 11 INTs)
Rushing: Joseph Davis(249-1232, 4.95 avg., 8 TDs)
Receiving: TE Nick Champman(72-905, 6 TDs); WR Karl Gayle(62-642, 9 TDs); WR Christian Bailey(50-529, 5 TDs); WR Larry Winzenfried(47-535, 4 TDs); TE Ernie Snodgrass(47-567, 4 TDs)
Defense: S Eugene Walley(104 tkls, 5 INTs); LB Cornelius Pritchett(76 tkls, 2 sacks); LB Charles Watt(66 tkls, 8 sacks); LB Bruce Small(60 tkls); DE Alexis Covington(5.5 sacks)

Chicago Leaders

Passing: J.T. Meehan(327-515, 3692 yds., 7.17 avg., 27 TDs, 11 INTs)
Rushing: Moe Riddols(213-1162, 5.46 avg., 10 TDs)
Receiving: WR Oscar Tyler(87-1028, 10 TDs); WR Carter Ritter(55-821, 8 TDs); RB Moe Riddols(50-370); WR Marlon Hussey(48-544, 3 TDs)
Defense: S Russell Fulcher(93 tkls); S Keegan Holliday(73 tkls); DE Dominique Middleton(6 sacks); DT Gene Hammond(5.5 sacks); CB Fred Duff(3 INTs); CB Fred Arosco(3 INTs)

Injuries

Raul Nunn's wrist injury has been upgraded to 'doubtful' -- it doesn't look like there's much risk of him making it worse, so he's going to play which is obviously huge for us. We're still missing both starting guards, Briggs and Bardon, forcing veteran Mackenzie Schwartz to start and we definitely regretted that some last week. LB Lincoln Adams is still out, several others have minor injuries on defense including DEs Covington and Hennessee but everyone else will play. This kind of opportunity doesn't come along every day.

Chicago is also short both of it's offensive guards, Lance Newhart and Gilbert Briggs, so there's some symmetry there. Dropoff is about the same for them. LB Marlon Barclay is through for the year, and more critically an ankle issue has lost them S Abraham Cobb, the best player in their secondary.

Line

Detroit by 2. Both teams moved the ball well in the earlier meetings and I expect that to continue. It's been a down year for J.T. Meehan, but no runner in the league has been more effective than Riddols. This game will be about getting in the endzone -- I expect plenty of points, and probably another close one. I'd have Chicago favored here, but I like the confidence. They've won four in a row and scored 34 or more in three of them, but they are also inconsistent; a month and a half ago they got doused 41-6 by Dallas. On the year though, Chicago has yet to lose at home. It'll be a frigid one, temps expected in the low teens.

New England @ Kansas City

Passing Offense: New England 3rd, Kansas City T-24th
Rushing Offense: New England 11th, Kansas City 4th
Passing Defense: New England 13th, Kansas City 23rd
Rushing Defense: New England 31st, Kansas City 26th
Turnover Margin: New England T-5th, Kansas City 27th

You look at the Chiefs' rankings here and you wonder how they are even in the playoffs, let alone hosting a divisional-round game. The only thing they do even adequately is their strong running attack. 10-6, but only a single point average margin of victory. Strange team. The Patriots looked sharp last week, but were the only 9-win division champ.

New England Leaders

Passing: Ken Barrett(364-546, 4106 yds, 7.52 avg., 26 TDs, 11 INTs)
Rushing: Vincent Broomfield(269-1102, 4.10 avg., 9 TDs)
Receiving: WR Melvin Mahoney(91-1151, 6 TDs); WR Abel Kelly(84-1059, 8 TDs); TE Lincoln Harper(72-931, 7 TDs); TE Garrett McKenzie(40-461, 6 TDs)
Defense: S Craig Rivers(92 tkls, 2 INTs); CB Rico Lindsay(76 tkls, 4 INTs); LB Gilbert Carpenter(74 tkls, 1 sack); DE Shannon Hickman(8.5 sacks); DE Ashton Lovato(6.5 sacks)

Kansas City Leaders

Passing: Kristopher Sampras(325-533, 3370 yds., 6.32 avg., 26 TDs, 11 INTs)
Rushing: Marc Huxtable(260-1103, 4.24 avg., 7 TDs)
Receiving: WR Marc Clemons(80-949, 10 TDs); RB Marc Huxtable(43-477); TE Oscar Jamison(41-376, 3 TDs)
Defense: LB Bernard Conway(79 tkls, 5 sacks); LB Lamar Bensen(66 tkls, 10.5 sacks); S Sedrick Brightbill(64 tkls); S Roberto Rasmussen(63 tkls); LB Donte Melville(58 tkls, 6.5 sacks)

Chiefs didn't do that takeaway thing much; they had two interceptions on the year. Two. Sampras, in his 11th year, has lost more games than he's won(48-51) and has just 4 comeback victories in 99 games. There's just a lot of things about this team that don't impress me.

Injuries

New England's win over Cincinatti lost them WR Melvin Mahoney, their leading wideout. That will hurt. They should get CB Vincent Zuniga back though. Several minor injuries, esp. on defense, but Mahoney's the only one who can't go. Kansas City is minus one of their depth receivers, and veteran RT Shawn DeAngelis. They lose little with his replacement though. No injuries of note on the defense. Really both teams here are looking quite healthy.

Line

Chiefs by 3. I'm definitely to going to call this one the other way. Ken Barrett and the Patriots are not a powerhouse, but they really should have enough to win this unless Huxtable runs wild ... and maybe even if he doesn't. Even with Mahoney out, they should have enough options. KC has won four of five, but only one win was by more than six points. They just haven't been impressive.

Brian Swartz · 02-23-2017, 09:15 AM

Divisional Games

** Touchback on the opening kick, and we start from the 25. Josue Page decides Nunn isn't healthy enough to go, and Sean Newman gets the start again. Can't say I'm a fan of that decision, but it is understandable. Schwartz is victimized for a sack on a corner blitz in our first play, but the porous Bears secondary can't make it stand up. They are bringing five basically every play, and another sack a couple of series later is followed by good coverage on third down, and we punt. Mitchell Wagner angles it out at the 2 ... great work by him! He's been a positive all year long. Chicago 0, Detroit 0, 11:30 1Q Davis didn't see the ball once that drive ... a reverse by Gayle was the only run. Not a great gameplan IMO.

** A steady diet of Moe Riddols for Chicago, but on third down the screen pass to him is broken up by the blitzing Watt. Picking up where he left off last week, and a nice 3-and-out. Big punt, but we're still in pretty good shape to restart at our 43. Chicago 0, Detroit 0, 10:01 1Q

** A great block by, of all people, G Mackenzie Schwartz, opens a big hole and Davis scoots for 16. He gets an even bigger gain with a couple of broken tackles two plays later. Earn that big contract, Joseph! Next play is a play-action fake, which Newman uses to throw into double coverage ... but Karl Gayle comes down with it anyway! 19 yards on that scoring play, and the crowd is frozen with more than just the cold. Detroit 7, Chicago 0, 7:52 1Q

** Ken Barrett to Lincoln Harper for a 7-yard score, and New England goes up early in Kansas City.

** Riddick Bates opens the scoring for Denver with a 39-yard boot.

** Meehan's first completion is followed by a sack, LB Jameson Favre doesn't get home often but that was a nice play. On the next play, we perfect the art of not tackling Riddols, who rumbles for 32. They keep it on the ground, and Meehan seems to be favoring his shoulder. We'll have to keep an eye on that. Not that it matters since they are dominating us up front. Back-to-back drops on 2nd and 3rd-and-goal from Riddols and TE Julian Tomoyose bail us out though. Jorge Rice makes the short field goal, but with as vulnerable as the defenses are in this game that could be a huge missed opportunity for our hosts. Detroit 7, Chicago 3, 2:07 1Q

** Kristopher Sampras to Charlie Kerouac on a 7-yard tally, and the Chiefs have evened the score a 7-all with the Patriots.

** Lewis Reado finds Fernando Burton behind the defense for a 23-yard TD, and San Francisco draws first blood against Dallas.

** Baltimore moves in front 7-3 over Denver. K.C. Gordon to Matt Daniels on a 13-yard pass play there.

** A nice play early in the next drive as Newman barely gets a pass off, short one to Gayle but he turns it into more than 20 yards after dropping one on the previous play. We're threatening again as the first quarter ends. A holding call on T Tanner Farr pushes us back, and the drive bogs down. He gives up a sack two plays later, three already on the day. Wagner buries Chicago again; we down his punt at the 3. Detroit 7, Chicago 3, 12:54 2Q

** Marcus Cramer busts out with a 24-yard scoring run, and Kansas City is having none of the doubters, up 14-7 now over New England late in the first.

** Dallas gets something on a long 48-yard FG from Ernest Emerson. 7-3 49ers with two to play in the opening stanza.

** The Bears drive lasts just one play, as Favre makes his second big play of the day, catching Camden Mason in the backfield just shy of the goal line! It's a safety, our first of the season. On the free kick, CB Ronnie Copeland is whistled for holding, backing us up to our 10. That'll make it harder to add to our lead. Detroit 9, Chicago 3, 12:14 2Q

** A 2-yard burst by Matt Daniels, who now has one touchdown receiving and one rushing, puts Baltimore up 14-3 on Denver.

** After a couple nice runs by Davis move the sticks once, Newman can't find anyone open on 3rd-and-3 and we punt again. It's a monster punt, 58 yards minus nine on the return. The Bears take over at their 22. Detroit 9, Chicago 3, 10:06 2Q

** Same deal on the other end, one first down and then punt. Lowe and Watt bring some good pressure on the second series. Meehan is currently 1 of 7 for 11 yards. Never thought I'd see that happen, he's been at least decent in both games earlier in the year. He can stay cold as far as I'm concerned. An absurd kick by Ruben De Jesus goes 64 yards and is downed at our 2. Gotta stand up and applaud that, as much as I hate it. Detroit 9, Chicago 3, 8:58 2Q

** San Francisco's up to a 14-3 lead on Reado's second TD pass of the day. This one went for 12 yards to Dave Yates.

** Quick three-and-out as we play it safe and only get a few yards. Another fine punt by Wagner, but a nice return by Zach Tosi gives them possession on our side of the field at the 43. Detroit 9, Chicago 3, 7:07 2Q

** On their second play, Meehan breaks his cold streak, hitting rookie sensation WR Oscar Tyler for what is eventually a 20-yard gain. Their center's called for holding next, but it looks like the dam has broken. Veteran Carter Ritter, who killed us in the opener, hauls down a big gain with two men on him. He does it again on the next play, and I can only throw up my hands -- we were ready both times, but it didn't matter. Six yards there on the score, and the extra point inches the Bears in front. Chicago 10, Detroit 9, 4:23 2Q

** Lewis Reado has now thrown for a trifecta of scores, and there's still almost nine minutes left in the firste half. Gino Chapman hauls this one in for a 10-yard TD, and San Francisco is all over Dallas, 21-3.

** A short field goal by Jessie Boyer extends Baltimore's lead to 17-3.

** We pick up a first, look like we're aiming for a solid drive to respond, but LB Jose Spriggs snags a pass intended for Snodgrass. Bears ball at our 45. We really need the defense to step up now. Chicago 10, Detroit 9, 2:14 2Q

** Instead, they do it again. We keep the double-coverage on Ritter but it doesn't matter; he makes the catch, escapes for a bit, runs it down inside the 25. Meehan finally makes another error though, and then a good tackle on Tyler by CB Roman Hartl, our best cover guy even though I don't talk about him much, holds them to another field goal. It's good from 33. Chicago 13, Detroit 9, 0:57 2Q

** Figured that to basically be the end of the half, but poor coverage by the Bears lets Davis wiggle free on a screen, then a nice run-and-catch by Larry Winzenfried. Newman fires for Christian Bailey in the endzone next ... and he drops it. Argh!! We wouldn't be here with him, but still. That was big. Next play, Newman dances around, fires for Roosevelt Delery over the middle ... but CB Darrin Robbins is in the way. He's got a head of steam, and we're not going to catch him. Pick six. 94 yards. That might have been the ballgame right there. A chance to go ahead, and instead this. Chicago 20, Detroit 9, 0:25 2Q.

** Chip-shot by Vinny Fullerton, and Kansas City extends to 17-7 now over New England.

** Halftime. Davis has 72 yards on 12 carries, so he's doing his part. The two interceptions were the game here. Until that last one, this was the one close contest that's going on today. Why couldn't Page have let Nunn play? Why??

** The Bears start the third with a good return out to the 37. A short pass to Tyler turns into 36, and already we're in danger of going down further. I know almost half the game is left, but right now they are a runaway locomotive. A couple of swing passes don't work, and Riddols drops one on third down. Normally he's reliable, but they've gone to him on four throws and completed none. Rice is just long enough from 44 yards out, but it could have been worse. Chicago 23, Detroit 9, 13:25 3Q

** We start out our first drive of the half going backwards, but get a fresh start when Spriggs is called for holding. They get enough pressure to force a mis-fire on 3rd-and-1 ... why we keep passing in those situations I'll never know. Another big punt by Wagner, 57 yards, and the Bears are stuck at the 3. Third time he's pinned them inside the 5. Don't want to know what the score is without his exploits.

** Another Fullerton field goal. Kansas City leads New England 20-7 early in the third. That's four times they've scored now since the Patriots had their early TD. Barrett has gone missing.

** They run it right at us, and the missed tackles show we've lost our will. 10 yards, then 13, then another 10. It's a bloodbath. The only third down they face results in a 14-yard TD by Oscar Tyler on a screen pass. Get the fat lady out here, this one's over. That was a back-breaker of a dominating 97-yard drive. Chicago 30, Detroit 9, 6:04 3Q. Twenty-seven unanswered points since the safety.

** John Woodford has added insult to injury in San Francisco. His scoop-and-score goes for 49 off a Dallas fumble, and the Cowboys now trail the 49ers 28-3.

** I'd jump in to a close game at this point, but there aren't any. Delery works free for a 23-yard pickup on third-and-10, letting our defense at least get some rest. Same situation one series later, and Fulcher stops Gayle a yard short. 4th-and-1, and with this score, why not go for it? They crowd the line, Davis gets it, goes off left guard ... S Russell Fulcher drops him for a loss. Chicago 30, Detroit 9, 2:50 3Q Bears' ball at their 39.

** Lewis Dillon plunges in from three yards out, and Baltimore is in rout mode as well. 24-3 there over Denver with less than two to go in the third.

** We're still getting decent pressure on Meehan, but the Bears are just running over us, almost at will. Another good play by Charles Watt, blocking a pass, helps lead to a field goal try. Rice is on target again, from 39 this time. Chicago 33, Detroit 9, 14:53 4Q

** Lewis Reado does it with his legs now, scampering 11 for another San Francisco touchdown. 35-3 with two minutes left in the third there. He's probably done for the day, and it's been a remarkable display.

** The ensuing kickoff is just a joke. Hartl returns it from a yard deep, doesn't make it out to the 20 even, fumbles, and Aidan Hollins has it for the Bears. Go figure. Two plays later, Moe Riddols takes it in from 11 yards out. A mere 136 for him on 15 carries at this point. Chicago 39, Detroit 9, 14:09. I want my mommy. They missed the extra point, irrelevantly.

** Another Vinny Fullerton field goal, and Kansas City is apparently the 'close' game. Just 23-7 there after three.

** Looked like another three-and-out, but Nick Chapman somehow hauls in a 25-yard gain, by far his best play of the playoffs, on 3rd-and-6. Bailey runs free after a short pass inside the five. The Bears are bored, but it'd nice to score since we haven't done it in what seems like forever. Winzenfried somehow beats two defenders for a 4-yard TD on the next play. 66 yards in those last three plays. Okey-dokey. Chicago 39, Detroit 16, 11:12 4Q. Hey, it's only a ... uhh ... three-possession game now. It would only take a miracle, or two, for us to have a chance if they fall asleep. It could happen!!

** Dillon Williams recovers the onside kick for the Bears. Hmm. Jorge Rice is getting a workout. We eventually stop them just short on a third-down run, and he knocks a short kick through. Perfect on the day. Chicago 42, Detroit 16, 7:26 4Q

** Luther Murdock adds three for the Patriots on a 46-yard kick. Their first points since early on, and with ten minutes left they still have a mountain to climb at 23-10 in Kansas City.

** An irrelevant field goal pulls Dallas to within 35-6.

** At this point, even the announcers had little to talk about but who would have the edge next week. Buttkickings all around. A couple of possession later, Joseph Davis got injured in pass protection, just to make it a perfect day. Then Gayle fumbled, and the Bears recovered. You just can't make this crap up. A 23-yard Riddols TD is wiped out due to a holding call. Rice naturally converts a long FG, cause that's what he does, but it could have been even worse.

** It was worse. Alec Crosco got another pick-six, 28 yards on this one, with a minute left. Didn't feel bad enough about my our day yet. Had to really make sure there was no semblance of dignity left.

Final Score: Chicago 52, Detroit 16. Well, we have a real good reason to hate the Bears, as if the long history wasn't enough. Elsewhere the finals were San Francisco 35, Dallas 6; Baltimore 24, Denver 3; Kansas City 26, New England 18. A late Patriots 'rally' was the only thing making one score respectable. I got the other three games right, but sure didn't expect this kind of margin.

Passing: Sean Newman(22-36, 262, 2 TDs, 3 INTs)
Rushing: Joseph Davis(15-80)
Receiving: Karl Gayle(6-74, TD); Larry Winzenfried(3-33, TD); Christian Bailey(3-61)
Defense: Bruce Small(11 tkls); sack by Jameson Favre, Charles Watt had 3 hurries and a blocked pass.

Despite the drek, a solid showing from Davis, and Small set a season record for us. He needed more help from his friends, and we needed our QB not to give the game away. Didn't get either.

Moe Riddols had 182 yards on 25 carries, without the waved-off late score which would have put him over 200. He's a fine runner, but that's just ugly. The four turnovers were obviously decisive, two interception returns for TDs. Yardage was competitive, 393-366 Chicago. It's a different game with Nunn out there, and who knows what happens if Davis is relevant later into the game. But this isn't a contest of what-ifs. We got ourselves flattened in the final three quarters, and the Bears beat us three times. The INT just before the half was at least a 10-point swing, and really a crusher.

No particularly hideous injuries, so everyone should be back next year. I've got a lot of important decisions to make. There's only one irrevocably ticked-off player, and I want him gone anyway, so I think a lot of the team will be back. Hopefully I can add some quality talent as well.

The AFC Championship Game will feature Kansas City @ Baltimore; San Francisco @ Chicago in the NFC. Both home teams are favored by four points.

12-19-2016, 01:05 PM	#14
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Thanks! Onward we go to see how long it will take the Lions to get a win ... Week 2: New England(1-0) @ Detroit(0-1) Line: New England by 5 Injury Report: C Arturo James is back to 100%. CB Roman Hartl(Probable, Groin) and CB Amari Harding(Probable, Shoulder Tendinitis) will play. TE Brent Harr(Out, Strained Calf), RB Brett Reese(Out, Stress Fracture, Foot), WR Christian Bailey(Out, Broken Clavicle), and LB Bruce Small(Out, Broken Fibula) will not. Harr and Reese should be back next week or the game after; Bailey and Small will be out until roughly midseason. The foolish faithful get their first look at my Lions at Ford Field. New England was outgained by New Jersey in their first game, but won 30-6 thanks to four Jets turnovers. Preview: The Patriots aren't the Bears, but they still have a potent offense. QB Ken Barrett is a battle-tested veteran(76-42, 17 comeback wins). He excels in late-game situations, moving the sticks on third downs, and giving his receivers opportunities to make big plays after the catch. Over 4500 yards last year, 33 TDs against 9 INTs. RB Vincent Broomfield is solid, fast and a good outlet for third-down passes. Missed four games last year which lowered his production a bit, but had almost 1200 yards with 11 TDs the year before, averaging nearly five a pop the past couple of seasons. Two quality wideouts, neither of which are quite a true #1, in Melvin Mahoney and Abel Kelly. Mahoney put up the biggest numbers last year, 100 catches for 1300 yards and 9 TDs. Lincoln Harper is quite capable, though not nearly as big a part of the passing game as most tight ends. A fine run blocker though. They have a pretty good offensive line with stalwarts Aiden Evans and Adrian Watson, but LT Gus Scott has not really fit in well and will be making just his fourth start. He's generally considered to have the talent to be pretty good, but isn't ready yet. New England's kicking game is average at best. On defense, they play a 4-3 and the front is really pretty weak except for MLB Ricky Christian. Christian is a very smart player who is much better in coverage than in other aspects. The secondary is a little better, anchored by SS Craig Rivers. He's another guy who uses his brain as his best asset. Overall our defense is better, primarily on the line. They've definitely got more and better offensive weapons though. A tough matchup, but the kind of one that we need to win if we are going to be a playoff team. The expert view is that our receivers aren't good enough to get open consistently against them, especially without Bailey, and that Nunn won't be able to have the kind of success throwing the ball that he did against Chicago. It's even more important that we get a big game from Davis running the ball. Short kickoff and poor coverage start New England out near midfield. Charles Watt knocks down a third-down pass and they miss a long field goal(48 yds) to keep them off the board. New England 0, Detroit 0, 12:41 1Q Joseph Davis makes a nice move and breaks a tackle, running away from the defense for a 34-yard TD on a short pass play. Detroit 7, New England 0, 10:55 1Q 80-yard drive gets us another score, with Raul Nunn scoring from 5 yards out on a keeper. Short pass to Roosevelt Delery that goes for 36 on third-and-7 was the key play. For some reason Davis only has one carry so far, Banks with four. Otherwhise it's been a perfect start . Detroit 14, New England 0, 3:45 1Q Another long field goal by Patriots kicker Luther Murdock is good this time from 51 yards. A false start and good pass defense on the ensuing plays stalled their drive. Detroit 14, New England 3, 14:47 2Q Another long drive stalls as Ashton Lovato sacks Nunn on second-and-goal. Catanzaro converts a 27-yard kick. Davis gets a little more action with carries of 13 and 14 yards. Detroit 17, New England 3, 9:32 2Q The Patriots convert four straight third-down plays, three of them through the air. We bend but don't break in the red zone, and a 29-yard Murdock field goal is all they get. LB Jameson Favre is injured, which we certainly don't need. Detroit 17, New England 6, 2:38 2Q The two-minute offense is aided by a New England penalty, and Nunn finds Ernie Snodgrass for a 14-yard score after Snodgrass dropped a pass earlier in the drive. Detroit 24, New England 6, 0:18 2Q. Nunn is doing just fine this week(14 of 19, 218, 2 TDs). I'm starting to wonder if we have a better quarterback than everyone else thinks we do. We're getting much bigger chunks yardage in the passing game, and as a result facing fewer third downs. Only 3 carries, 27 yards for Davis. A heavy dose of Vincent Broomfield(7 rushes, 38 yards) has given way to more throws by Barrett(15-23, 109). As long as we keep them from making bigger plays in the passing game we'll do well. We're definitely getting a lot more pressure on Barrett than Nunn has had to deal with. No sacks for us but 4 hurries to 1 for them. Starting off the second half, Davis and Larry Winzenfried get big gainers of more than 20 yards. A holding penalty on Snodgrass is just a temporary setback, and Nick Chapman scores on a 17-yard pass. This game is turning into a stunning rout. Detroit 31, New England 6, 11:03 3Q Covington stops Broomfield on 3rd-and-goal from the 1, then Rico Campos blocks the ensuing field goal on a bad snap. The Patriots have decided that Barrett is done for the day, bringing in backup Dominique Macomber. Detroit 31, New England 6, 3:26 3Q. Penalties both ways mar the final quarter, and offensively we give them a steady diet of Davis with mixed results. Melvin Mahoney, their top receiver by a mile today, shakes loose for a 49-yard gain and a few plays later Macomber finds Lincoln Harper for their first touchdown from a yard out. Detroit 31, New England 13, 8:12 4Q We add another field goal by Catanzaro, this one from 39. Detroit 34, New England 13, 2:20 4Q New England adds on another pass to Harper, 19 yards just before time expires. They miss the kick. Final Score: Detroit 34, New England 19 We actually end up getting outgained 445-408, but that's mostly due to not throwing a pass the last 20 minutes of the game. Passing: Raul Nunn(19-26, 297, 3 TDs) Rushing: Joseph Davis(12-52), Ronnie Banks(7-33), Raul Nunn(5-27) Receiving: Roosevelt Delery(4-69), Ernie Snodgrass(3-48, TD), Joseph Davis(3-70, TD), Karl Gayle(3-43) Definitely spread it around quite a bit here. Only slightly better day for Davis and most of his carries came late, but he was as effective as any receiver we had so he did make a significant contribution there. Defense: Lincoln Adams and Cornelius Pritchett had 7 tackles each, 6 for Nickolas Berggren, 5 for Eugene Walley and Roman Hartl. No sacks, 4 hurries for Covington and 3 for Hennessee. Berggren, Harding, and Copeland had a pass defensed each. Through two games we have zero turnovers, both created and committed. The offensive line notably played better this week, a little better by the D line as well. Davis and Snodgrass continue to make the most errors on offense; new LB Pritchett and the secondary in general were the biggest culprits on defense. A lot of that was again in the second half though after the game was over. Good win to get us back to 1-1 on the year. Nunn is third in the league in passing yardage so far this season and has 4 TDs with no picks. Only one other QB has thrown as often as he has without one. I can only assume Davis' anemic 3.2 ypc will pick up. It'd better. Coaches are saying he's definitely regressing which isn't good to hear. Injury report: Hartl and Harding are back to full strength. TE Brent Harr can go next week if we need him, which would be nice for the running game. Reese, Bailey, and Small are still out, and Jameson Favre's injury is a strained calf muscle which means he'll miss the next month. That'll make our linebacker situation even more tenuous. Really glad we have Pritchett or things would be worse than they already are. Playing Time: Raul Nunn is happy now as anticipated. Winzenfried and Whetstone are not, and neither is CB Jay Berkowich now. He's a dime corner at best, and expendable so that's not a concern. Other Games: Chicago's offense continued to be underwhelming, as they lost 23-13 at Miami where they were favored by 10. The Dolphins had more than 200 yards rushing(99 from Holiday, 97 from Grunhard) while shutting down the Bears ground game and Meehan looked very human. Exciting game in Carolina, with the Panthers winning 38-33 on a Douglas Copeland-Mack Evans pass play with 2:21 left. Arizona bounced back by trouncing Denver 32-7. Impressive performance by Dallas in what was supposed to be a close game, shutting down the visiting Colts 25-3. In Philadelphia, the favored Jacksonville Jaguars lost 30-27 after a wild fourth quarter. They led 17-13 after three, and looked to be headed to overtime after Caden Borden throw to Alvin Glover with 54 seconds left tied it at 27. War Angel Middleton(bonus points for the name here!) hit on three straight downfield passes to set up a chip shot by Devonte Conley with three seconds left, winning it for the Eagles. Seattle invaded San Diego and got their second straight road upset, shutting out the Chargers for the final three quarters in a 26-10 win. San Diego definitely is in trouble this year, but Seattle may be a team to watch on the other side of things. Baltimore had an impressive showing, dominating Tampa Bay 38-6 in what was expected to be a close game. The Bucs managed just 188 yards, while Ravens QB K.C. Gordon was 21 of 26 for 249 and a trio of scores. Tennessee and New York went to overtime, and it was a defensive struggle; Jalen Urquiola made a 29-yarder with just two seconds left in the extra session for the 23-20 final. Minnesota lost at New Jersey 30-15, and Green Bay beat Buffalo 25-17, both expected results. That leaves us a game behind the Packers and ahead of the Viking, tied with Chicago. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 12-27-2016 at 11:44 AM.

01-30-2017, 04:57 PM	#32
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Week 14 Playoff Picture AFC 1. Baltimore(8-4, North, 96%) 2. Houston(8-4, South, 96%) 3. New England(7-5, East, 97%) 4. Kansas City(7-5, West, 94%) 5. Cincinatti(7-5, 78%) 6. Denver(6-6, 58%) 7. Tennessee(6-6, 25%) 7. Indianapolis(6-6, 30%) 9. Cleveland(5-7, 4%) 9. Jacksonville(5-7, 5%) 9. Miami(5-7, 3%) 9. New Jersey(5-7, 7%) 9. Oakland(5-7, 2%) 9. Pittsburgh(5-7, 6%) 15. Buffalo(2-10, --) 15. San Diego(2-10, --) Four games left, and still nobody is officially out in the chaotic AFC. There are five teams within a game of the conference lead, 14 within a game of the playoffs. Nobody has separated themselves. Really it's just a matter of who is playing well. Houston's defense means they'll be a threat against anyone, but their offense can be terrible as they showed this week. Baltimore is still on top but fading fast. New England has won three of four and might be as good as anyone in the conference ... but that's not saying much. Houston has the best shot right now(36%) of taking the top spot. NFC 1. Los Angeles(11-1, West, 100%) 2. Dallas(9-3, East, 100%) 3. Chicago(8-4, North, 94%) 4. Atlanta(8-4, South, 60%) 5. New Orleans(8-4, 56%) 6. San Francisco(8-4, 64%) 7. Detroit(8-4, 94%) 8. Carolina(7-5, 23%) 8. Seattle(7-5, 9%) 10. Arizona(6-6, 2%) 11. Green Bay(5-7, negl.) 11. New York(5-7, negl.) 11. Philadelphia(5-7, negl.) 11. Tampa Bay(5-7, negl.) 15. Washington(2-10) 16. Minnesota(1-11) There's a clear #2 here with the Cowboys emphatically staking claim to that spot with their blowout over the Bears. Meanwhile, Detroit is still on the outside of the bubble. We've won four straight and would be tied for the conference lead in the AFC ... and if the playoffs started today, we'd be watching. Yet the projections show actually a hair higher chance of making it then the Bears -- who we've tied now for the division lead. Strange. Key Games This Week: Carolina @ Cleveland -- Close to an elimination game for these two, both of whom are coming off impressive wins but need to keep winning as they have some ground to make up to get back in the race. Cincinatti @ Atlanta -- Another interconference game, this has two teams with winning records who are right in the middle of things. The Falcons need this one the most, as they could easily fall behind the Saints and even out of the playoffs with a loss. Dallas @ Tennessee -- Tall order for the Titans, but everything's a must-win for them right now. Kansas City @ Seattle -- The Seahawks have fallen after a fine start to the year; the Chiefs could end anywhere from best in the conference to falling out of the playoffs. New England @ Chicago -- Two teams with Super Bowl aspirations in a fine matchup. The Bears in particular need to get the bad memory of the Dallas game out of their minds. New Orleans @ Baltimore -- Another in a long line of quality matchups this week. Any win would be a good win for the Ravens right now, and the Saints have rallied to put themselves in the playoffs ... for the moment. ** Los Angeles @ Denver -- The Broncos host the NFL's undisputed best, and right now they're in by a thread. Not a particularly hopeful week there ... but LA had an uninspiring performance today. It's going to be a big, big week upcoming. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 01-30-2017 at 04:58 PM.

01-31-2017, 03:51 PM	#37
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Week 15 Playoff Picture AFC 1. Baltimore(9-4, North, 99%) 2. Houston(8-5, South, 91%) 3. Kansas City(8-5, West, 98%) 4. New England(7-6, East, 98%) 5. Cincinatti(7-6, 54%) 6. Denver(7-6, 87%) 7. Tennesee(7-6, 57%) 8. Indianapolis(6-7, 10%) 9. Cleveland(5-8, 1%) 9. Jacksonville(5-8, 1%) 9. Miami(5-8, 3%) 9. New Jersey(5-8, 1%) 9. Oakland(5-8, negl.) 9. Pittsburgh(5-8, 1%) 15. Buffalo(2-11) 15. San Diego(2-11) Baltimore is back on top of the heap for the moment: 2-5 in the AFC all lost this week. The pretenders also seem to be falling away. Looks like a three-team race for two wild-card spots, Tennessee being the odd man out at this juncture. Projections shown Denver having a lot better shot, nearly a lock at this point. However, nobody, not even the Ravens, have clinched a spot yet. NFC 1. Los Angeles(11-2, West) 2. Dallas(9-4, East, 98%) 3. Chicago(9-4, North, 98%) 4. Atlanta(9-4, South, 78%) 5. Detroit(9-4, 97%) 6. San Francisco(9-4, 71%) 7. Carolina(8-5, 35%) 7. New Orleans(8-5, 17%) 9. Seattle(7-6, 2%) 9. Arizona(7-6, 2%) 11. Green Bay(6-7, none) 11. New York(6-7, 1%) 11. Philadelphia(6-7, 1%) 11. Tampa Bay(6-7, negl.) 15. Washington(3-10) 16. Minnesota(2-11) What a fall for the New Orleans Saints. A week ago they had won a hard-fought victory over Seattle, and were leading their division. Now they are third and out of the playoffs -- after losing a road game at AFC-leading Baltimore. It's far from over for them, but not a good week. Meanwhile, Detroit is not only in now, but part of a five-way tie for the #2 seed! My how the fates have changed. The Rams actually clinched their spot a week ago, but I forgot to list them that way. After that, it's just a question of how they fall. There's a strong probability that the current division leaders will remain where they are. Dallas/Chicago in the #2 spot is the only real 'coin-flip'. Despite the Cowboys win a couple weeks ago, they have the tougher schedule remaining. By far the most likely scenario for Detroit right now is a road wild-card game @ Atlanta. We didn't play the Falcons this year, but thinking about that too much just yet is definitely putting the cart ahead of the horse. We're back home at Ford Field for a couple of games now, and none of the speculation matters if we don't keep taking care of business. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 01-31-2017 at 03:51 PM.

02-19-2017, 03:50 PM	#45
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Wild Card Round Preview Cincinatti(10-6) @ New England(9-7) Passing Offense: Cincinatti 13th, New England 3rd Rushing Offense: Cincinatti 24th, New England 11th Passing Defense: Cincinatti 18th, New England 13th Rushing Defense: Cincinatti 21st, New England 31st Turnover Margin: Cincinatti T-13th, New England T-5th On paper, this just doesn't look like a good matchup for the Bengals. They don't have the running game to take advantage of the sole weakness the Patriots have. Cincinatti Leaders Passing: Alvin Shea(344-505, 3592 yds, 7.11 avg., 21 TD, 11 INT) Rushing: O.J. Farmer(164-619, 3.77 avg., 5 TDs) Receiving: WR Ernest Brantley(94-1289, 7 TDs); TE Brad Bissonette(54-446, 6 TDs); WR Brad Banks(47-530) Defense: LB Tiger Boy Schneider(106 tkls, 1 sack); LB Winston Stevens(56 tkls, 3 sacks); LB Rufus Mason(7.5 sacks); LB Graham Brown(5 sacks); CB Emmett Pearson(3 INTs) New England Leaders Passing: Ken Barrett(364-546, 4106 yds, 7.52 avg., 26 TDs, 11 INTs) Rushing: Vincent Broomfield(269-1102, 4.10 avg., 9 TDs) Receiving: WR Melvin Mahoney(91-1151, 6 TDs); WR Abel Kelly(84-1059, 8 TDs); TE Lincoln Harper(72-931, 7 TDs); TE Garrett McKenzie(40-461, 6 TDs) Defense: S Craig Rivers(92 tkls, 2 INTs); CB Rico Lindsay(76 tkls, 4 INTs); LB Gilbert Carpenter(74 tkls, 1 sack); DE Shannon Hickman(8.5 sacks); DE Ashton Lovato(6.5 sacks) Injuries Both quarterbacks are hurt. Barrett, one of the NFL's best, is likely to be able to play. Shea, who has led some of the league's most dramatic comebacks this year, and at 26 is a rising star, will either not play or be significantly limited by a strained triceps. You won't be hearing from Schneider(a hip issue that might be career-ending) or top Bengals corner Sherman Clinton(out for the year with a ruptured Achilles) either. New England is missing their best CB as well, Vincent Zuniga, and the front seven is somewhat banged up, but overall they look to be both healthier and just plain better. Line Patriots by 3. I think that's being somewhat generous to Cincinatti. I'd take New England by at least a touchdown here, maybe ten points. Denver(10-6) @ Houston(10-6) Passing Offense: Denver 9th, Houston 20th Rushing Offense: Denver 22nd, Houston 12th Passing Defense: Denver 10th, Houston 4th Rushing Defense: Denver 8th, Houston 12th Turnover Margin: Denver 9th, Houston T-5th No secret why these two teams are here. Both of them take care of the ball and don't give away anything free on the defensive side. This looks like a low-scoring affair between two disciplined teams. Denver Leaders Passing: Connor Emtman(316-523, 3741 yds, 7.15 avg., 22 TDs, 15 INTs) Rushing: Miles Swift(180-708, 3.93 avg., 6 TDs) Receiving: WR Marshall Stromberg(65-899, 3 TDs); RB Miles Swift(45-381); WR Jackson Herriott(41-646, 3 TDs) Defense: S Jerald Horton(95 tkls); DE Joel Boyd(53 tkls, 5.5 sacks); DT Brendan Kramer(8 sacks); DE Chase Washington(8.5 sacks); LB Moe Henderson(6.5 sacks); 3 others with 4.5-5.0 sacks; CB Tristan Ramirez(6 INTs) The Broncos really get after the quarterback. They were tied with Tampa Bay and New Jersey for the league lead in sacks(9.1% of all pass plays). Houston Leaders Passing: Gabriel Joseph(175-271, 1837 yds, 6.78 avg., 11 TDs, 7 INTs) Rushing: Heath Nichols(300-1230, 4.10 avg., 13 TDs) Receiving: WR Edwin Hickam(71-792, 4 TDs); WR Tyrus Henricksen(67-696, 4 TDs); WR Caiden Ogle(61-588, 4 TDs); RB Heath Nichols(50-422) Defense: LB Oscar Everett(114 tkls, 3 sacks); S Max Handy(88 tkls); CB Jake Moultrie(67 tkls, 5 INTs); S Vincent Hildebrandt(58 tkls); DE Terrell Morris(12 sacks); DT Greg Frederick(5 sacks); DE Courtney Van Meter(5 sacks) The Texans' QB situation might be the worst in the league. They have four currently on their roster as Joseph was hurt half the year and is still not 100% -- it could be Giovanni Hall instead. None of them are better than serviceable backups though. The offense relies on balance with Nichols, and against a tough Denver defense that will be a rough sell. Houston's secondary will make it just as hard on the Broncos though. Injuries Houston continues to be missing standout TE Derrick Sims who missed half the season, and a couple of OTs are banged up. They're also short one key player at each level of the defense. Denver's offensive line is is a disaster right now in terms of health, and pretty much all the top players in their defensive secondary have some kind of issue also. Line Denver by 4. I don't agree -- I think Houston will win a tight, low-scoring game, though it definitely could go either way. With the O-line in such dire straits, I think the Broncos will really have a hard time moving the ball here. Detroit(11-5) @ Atlanta(11-5) Passing Offense: Detroit 1st, Atlanta 22nd Rushing Offense: Detroit 5th, Atlanta 23rd Passing Defense: Detroit 21st, Atlanta 7th Rushing Defense: Detroit 22nd, Atlanta 7th Turnover Margin: Detroit T-13th, Atlanta T-17th Looks like a real battle here between a top offense and a strong defense. When Atlanta has the ball, neither unit is very impressive. Detroit Leaders Passing: Raul Nunn(374-537, 4342 yds, 8.09 avg., 35 TDs, 11 INTs) Rushing: Joseph Davis(249-1232, 4.95 avg., 8 TDs) Receiving: TE Nick Champman(72-905, 6 TDs); WR Karl Gayle(62-642, 9 TDs); WR Christian Bailey(50-529, 5 TDs); WR Larry Winzenfried(47-535, 4 TDs); TE Ernie Snodgrass(47-567, 4 TDs) Defense: S Eugene Walley(104 tkls, 5 INTs); LB Cornelius Pritchett(76 tkls, 2 sacks); LB Charles Watt(66 tkls, 8 sacks); LB Bruce Small(60 tkls); DE Alexis Covington(5.5 sacks) Atlanta Leaders Passing: Landon Farrell(287-458, 2893 yds., 6.32 avg., 12 TDs, 7 INTs) Rushing: Kaleb Goodspeed(247-1001, 4.12 avg., 4 TDs) Receiving: WR Lucas Gilmore(68-748, 5 TDs); TE Isaiah Horn(52-564); WR Anthony Langlois(48-571, 2 TDs) Defense: LB Dillon Marsden(98 tkls, 4 sacks, 4 INTs); LB Jeffrey Marrero(94 tkls, 3.5 sacks); S Neil Abernethy(80 tkls); S Erick Vaughan(70 tkls); CB Duane Larsen(56 tkls); DE Hugh Wagner(13.5 sacks); DT Dale Hudson(5.5 sacks); a few others in the 4-5 range Injuries The big news is that the star of the Lions' offense, QB Raul Nunn, will be unable to play due to a severe wrist sprain suffered in the regular-season finale loss to the lowly Vikings. This leaves things up to veteran Sean Newman, who has been ineffective in his limited time. The vaunted Detroit attack has been dealt a near-fatal blow here, and their ability to win on the road against a good defense no longer inspires much confidence. Detroit also has a couple of offensive linemen out, but the defense is at least healthy aside from LB Lincoln Adams. Atlanta is missing top TE Gregory Brewer as they have most of the season, and two OGs are out including Marc Mathis, one of the league's best. They've got a few defensive injuries, most notably CB Dustin Nickle who has been out half the season and is done for the year with a compound leg fracture. Line Detroit by 5. I wish. With Nunn, that's probably true. The Falcons are well-coached enough, though their defensive talent isn't that great, to load up on Davis and slow down our offense, forcing Newman to throw. Combine that with the porous defense and I'm not optimistic. Los Angeles(11-5) @ Dallas(10-6) Passing Offense: Los Angeles 7th, Dallas 4th Rushing Offense: Los Angeles 14th, Dallas 21st Passing Defense: Los Angeles 19th, Dallas 1st Rushing Defense: Los Angeles 13th, Dallas 20th Turnover Margin: Los Angeles 10th, Dallas T-24th With the Rams in a skid and the status of Coffey in question, going up against the top passing defense in the league, it appears they'll need the Cowboys to be in a giving mood in order to come out of this one. Los Angeles Leaders Passing: Doug Coffey(272-424, 3182 yds., 7.50 avg., 17 TDs, 5 INTs) Rushing: Mickey Alcott(168-721, 4.29 avg., 8 TDs) Receiving: WR Jamie Lynch(72-844, 3 TDs); WR Efrain Moore(66-919, 3 TDs) Defense: CB Arnold Aniston(86 tkls, 6 INTs); LB Wally Irvine(80 tkls, 1.5 sacks); S Sawyer Buck(71 tkls, 1 sack); LB Nick Prescott(66 tkls, 2 sacks); DE Ike Jordan(56 tkls, 11.5 sacks) Dallas Leaders Passing: Dak Prescott(389-597, 4509 yds., 7.55 avg., 24 TDs, 15 INTs) Rushing: Al Highlander(150-641, 4.27 avg., 5 TDs) Receiving: WR Aiden Roetzheim(104-1334, 13 TDs); TE Jaylen Turnbull(75-843); WR Leo Van Valkenberg(55-680, 6 TDs) Defense: LB Lawrence Samuels(107 tkls, 5 sacks, 3 INTs); S Pat Anderson(90 tkls, 1 sack, 3 INTs); S Liam Mallak(73 tkls, 3 INTs); LB Roman Acree(58 tkls, 3 sacks); DE Peter Rasmussen(14 sacks) Injuries Coffey looks like he'll be ok to play, but a bigger problem for the Rams offense is that WR Efrain Moore will be out. That leaves Lynch as really their only big threat in the passing game. They are pretty much healthy otherwhise aside from CB Levon Hongamen, finished for the season. No excuses here; LA just needs to play a lot better than they did at the end of the season. Dallas is not sure if TE Jaylen Turnbull will be able to go, and there are multiple issues on the offensive line. They've got a lot of small niggles on defense, but no major injuries there. Line Los Angeles by 3. Another one where I don't really see it that way, but I'm not sure. Combined, these teams are 1-7 in their last four games each. Still, I think it'll be harder for the Rams to score than the Cowboys given the way LA's defense has played lately and the injury to Moore. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 02-19-2017 at 03:51 PM.

02-20-2017, 05:15 PM	#46
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	For the playoffs, I'll obviously be focusing on Detroit's games as long as we are around, but will also report scoring elsewhere whenever it happens. When we get to the Super Bowl, I'll probably to switch to reporting play-by-play. For now, it'll be by drive. Atlanta gets the ball first, starting at their 25 after a touchback. Atlanta 0, Detroit 0, 15:00 1Q A screen pass to RB Kaleb Goodspeed was the big play on their opening drive, netting 31 yards as Covington brought the pressure on Farrell but he got the pass off in time. On the next play, Goodspeed scored from 18 yards out on an end run. Impressive 75-yard drive by the Falcons and just what we did not need. Atlanta 7, Detroit 0, 12:34 1Q. Another touchback, and we'll start at the 25. The other three games remain scoreless at this early juncture. Three-and-out for us, Karl Gayle is a yard short on a third-and-5 pass play. A fine punt and a holding penalty on Atlanta back them up to their own 9. Atlanta 7, Detroit 0, 10:38 1Q Los Angeles gets a 45-yard FG from Harvey Reynolds, taking an early 3-0 lead at Dallas. Denver strikes on a 27-yard pass from Connor Emtman to Jackson Herriott, a big early TD against Houston. Good defense gets us a quick stop with only two yards gained, pinning Atlanta back. Good punt and a decent return by Davis, giving us the ball near midfield at our 47. Atlanta 7, Detroit 0, 8:38 1Q In New England, Ken Barrett to Abel Kelly for a 14-yard score, and the Patriots take the lead against Cincinatti at home. Meanwhile it appears Denver missed the extra point, the score is 6-0 there. Same story for us offensively, a couple of ineffective runs and a third-down pass play comes up short. Another punt, this one a touchback. Atlanta 7, Detroit 0, 6:31 1Q A 4-yard TD run by Al Highlander has Dallas in front now over Los Angeles, 7-3. To start the Falcons' next drive, QB Landon Farrell just barely makes it to the sticks twice in a row on third down. One was a sneak, the other a scramble. On the next series, a third-down drop by WR Anthony Langlois gets us the stop. They down a fine punt at our 7-yard-line, so now it's time for us to be backed up. Atlanta 7, Detroit 0, 1:39 1Q Heath Nichols takes it in from four yards out, and Houston is on the board. After the extra point, they hold a 7-6 edge against Denver. Another 40+ kick from Reynolds, and the Rams have cut the Cowboys' lead to 7-6. A pitch play to Joseph Davis gains 11, our initial first down of the game and a big one to get us some breathing room. A couple more runs take us to the end of the quarter. Total yardage so far is 104-36 in favor of Atlanta. Newman is 2 for 2, but for only 12 yards and hasn't thrown a pass before third down. I think we'll need more from him to win. Luther Murdock has a 44-yard kick at the end of the quarter for New England, now up 10-0 against Cincinatti. The Bengals, along with our Lions, look to be the teams in the most trouble so far today. Strange series next. On second down, Newman badly overthrows Snodgrass, then does well to get a third-down pass off, but Chapman drops it. Atlanta is called offsides ... but G Mackenzie Schwartz is whistled for a false start to hand them the yards back. Third-and-long again, and WR Roosevelt Delery evades the defense, turning a 3-yard route into 18. That's the kind of play we need to make things happen today. A few plays later, Newman goes deep to Snodgrass, and CB Duane Larson makes the interception near the Falcons goalline. It's basically a punt by a different name. We move the ball for the first time and get nothing out of it beyond field position, and they'll take over at their 23. Atlanta 7, Detroit 0, 11:17 2Q A blown blocking assignment by BJ Gibson lets LB Charles Watt get our first sack of the day and the ninth of his season, which is more than the 31-year-old had for his career before the campaign started. Nicely done for another 3-and-out. Davis fumbles on the return, which he does way too often, but DE Shaun Mahoney has the heads-up play for the recovery. We'll start with decent field position at our 36. Atlanta 7, Detroit 0, 9:30 2Q We're starting to mix up the run and pass more which is a good sign, but Hugh Wagner gets the better of C Arturo James to make the first sack of the game for the Falcons. A couple of players combine for another one on the next play, this one the fault of LT Kent Williamson. Newman fumbles, and we're fortunate to have Chapman fall on it. After one first down, a debacle and we're lucky to be able to punt it away. Another quality job on special teams coverage, and they're stopped at the 15. Atlanta 7, Detroit 0, 6:55 2Q Clayton Beamon connects from 46 yards out, and Houston extends it's lead over Denver to 10-6. Atlanta's passing attack gets going again, and even a couple of penalties aren't enough to stop them as they complete four straight downfield attempts. Their second long drive of the day ends in a 17-yard TD catch by TE Van Sherman, who hurt us several times in the 85-yard possession. The Falcons are now firmly in control here. Atlanta 14, Detroit 0, 2:41 2Q A 5-yard run by Vincent Broomfield extends New England's lead to 17-0, but the Bengals get some life when Benjamin Shields takes a short kickoff back 81 yards for their first points. Cincinatti still trails 17-7. A few minues later, Barrett to Lincoln Harper from six yards out, and the Patriots extend to a commanding 24-7 lead. Larry Winzenfried makes things worse with an illegal block on the kickoff return, and we start out back at the 10. Two plays later, a stunning play as WR Christian Bailey caught a crossing route with room to run, and the Falcons were unable to get to him. 79 yards he goes for a huge score, getting us back in the game and giving Newman his first-ever playoff TD pass! Atlanta 14, Detroit 7, 0:56 2Q That does it for the first half. We're lucky to be within a touchdown here. I think we're going to need to do better against Landon Farrell(13-15, 152, TD) in the passing game on defense, and find a way to create more room for Joseph Davis(10 carries, 33 yards) to run if we are going to have a chance. Elsewhere, New England still is in control 24-7 over Cincinatti, Houston leads Denver 13-6, and Dallas is also up 10-6 against Los Angeles after a late FG in both of those last two games. All of the road teams are currently losing. The plan in the second half was clearly to get Davis the ball as a receiver instead of a runner. It worked some, and a facemask penalty helped. Another penalty on Schwartz backed us up though just as we got into field-goal range. Another screen to Davis got us 25 yards on 3rd-and-13 though, setting up first-and-goal. With Williamson doing the work up front, he ran it in on the next play for the score! Fine opening drive, and we've now tied it up!! Atlanta 14, Detroit 14, 10:44 3Q Cincinatti has also struck with Alvin Shea finding Kody Dole for a 7-yard tally. They have a bigger mountain to climb, cutting the deficit there to 24-14 just before the end of the first half there. We had Atlanta boxed in after a holding penalty, but they get a 21-yard completion to Langlois on 3rd-and-16. After a big gainer on a screen to Goodspeed, Cornelius Pritchett makes our second sack, victimizing Gibson once again. On the next play, a holding call on CB Nickolas Berrgren wipes that away though. We did a better job of slowing them down in the red zone, but not enough. Kaleb Goodspeed scored up the middle from seven yards out, and the Falcons regain the lead. Atlanta 21, Detroit 14, 2:51 3Q A long 54-yard FG by Clayton Beamon puts the Texans up to a 16-6 lead on Denver with just seconds left in the first half. A short FG for New England inches them out to 27-14 over Cincinatti. Dallas has also added three more, moving them to a 13-6 edge against LA midway through the third there. A good pass rush disrupted a third-and-short pass, and we are stopped right away. Fair catch for the Falcons at their 36 on the punt. Atlanta 21, Detroit 14, 0:59 3Q Doug Coffey has thrown a touchdown pass, the Rams' first of the day, and they draw even with the Cowboys at 13-all. Denver's gotten a big play from their defense, a 31-yard pick six from Mack Kidman. They're within a field goal now, Houston still leading but only 16-13. The defensive line steps it up in the pass rush. Irvin, Lowe, and Hennessee all get hurries on consecutive plays after the Falcons had gotten moving again. Reggie Chandler is wide right from 49 yards, and we're still one play away from getting even again. Atlanta 21, Detroit 14, 14:24 4Q. Big series there for the defense. Davis rips off a 10-yard gain right away, and we get a facemask call to add to it. The Falcons get called for holding just as we were staring at third-and-long on the next set of downs. That gets us close enough for a 37-yarder by Chandler Catanzaro, as Page elects not to go for it on 4th-and-2 with this much time left. Atlanta 21, Detroit 17, 11:34 4Q Cincinatti may not be quite done yet. Phillip Whalen adds a 43-yard kick for them. 27-17 New England, late in the third. Once again Atlanta moves the chains a couple times, but gets nothing out of it as Farrell misfires a couple times just into our territory. The punt goes into the end zone, and we'll start at our 20 with a chance to take the lead. Atlanta 21, Detroit 17, 9:30 4Q Not a great start for us, but a 10-yard catch by Roosevelt Delery on 3rd-and-6 keeps things moving. A questionable, to put it nicely, decision to throw on 3rd-and-1 during the next series ends in Newman misfiring deep under heavy pressure. A decent punt is downed at the 15, and now we need another stop to give us decent position for another chance. Atlanta 21, Detroit 17, 6:37 4Q The script has flipped in Houston. Rico Wilkerson rambles 16 yards to put Denver ahead now, 20-16 at the end of three. On a big 3rd-and-4, Covington tips a pass at the line and we get the stop! Or not, as Bruce Small, our best linebacker, is called for holding. Really could have done without that. He's called for the same thing again on the next play, which lost a yard. Seriously dude. Use your brain. Offensive holding on the Falcons gives back some of the lost yardage, and they decide to just run as much time off the clock as possible. A short punt and a fair catch gives us the ball at our 28. Atlanta 21, Detroit 17, 2:09 4Q Dak Prescott has connected with his top receiver, Aidan Roetzheim, for a 3-yard score to put Dallas ahead again. 20-13 they lead Los Angeles with eight minutes to go. Timothy Vanderpool scores from 7 yards out, and puts the nail in the coffin for New England. Patriots now lead Cincinatti 34-17 with less than eight to play. So it's come down to this. Our season depends on a two-minute drill with Sean Newman behind center, needing 72 yards for the game-winning drive. A 12-yard completion to Winzenfried is a good start. Then Bailey, who has caught all six passes thrown to him up to this point, drops one that would have gone for nice yardage. DT Riddick Woodfork hands us five on an encroachment call, and we go to Bailey again for 11 more. 44 yards left, 1:32 on the clock. A screen to Delery surprises the defense, and gets almost half of that. Then Bailey again for a dozen. This is getting real, first down at the Falcons' 12 with 1:15 left. A sack by Hugh Wagner is wiped out by holding on S Erick Vaughn. First and goal at the 7. Play action, screen to Bailey ... and he scores!! Un-freaking-believable! A dramatic last-minute drive, and the Lions take the lead!! Detroit 24, Atlanta 21, 0:42 4Q Atlanta still has time, needing only a field goal. Covington forces one incompletion, then Kniker drops Goodspeed for a loss of four on a screen pass. A last-second desperation heave goes nowhere ... and the Lions win! Riddick Bates adds a field goal for Denver, pushing them to a 23-16 lead with two minutes left. There is no notable drama remaining as the Broncos surprise me with this win at Houston. Dallas finishes off Los Angeles 20-13, and New England romps over Cincinatti 34-17. Passing: Sean Newman(22-31, 282, 2 TDs, INT) Rushing: Joseph Davis(17-68, TD) Receiving: Christian Bailey(9-133, 2 TDs); Joseph Davis(4-53) Defense: Charles Watt(10 tkls, sack); Rico Campos(6 tkls); Bruce Small(6 tkls). Pritchett also had a sack, 3 knockdowns for Covington and a couple of hurries by Irvin. Newman had a remarkable day given he was just 15-33 on the year coming in. Aside from that, the two huge TD catches and general production by Christian Bailey were huge and really validated my decision to give him a long-term contract this past offseason. Watt was the unquestioned star of the defense today, and Davis quietly had 121 yards from scrimmage and some solid special teams play. The goat was probably TE Ernie Snodgrass*, who was targeted four times, some of the passes were off but he had a couple drops as well with no catches. He has one job, and was a total fail in that task in this game. Having said that, this was still somewhat of a gift. Total yardage was 380-352 in Atlanta's favor, and while there were no meaningful turnovers, we would have been in even more trouble without recovering both of our fumbles. We played better than I expected, but still probably should have lost. 12 Falcons penalties for 99 yards, unusual for them, really made a big difference. And ultimately it came down to that final drive. Newman is now 6-7 for his career, but this is his 4th comeback win among them and the biggest victory of his career in his 7th season. For the third time in franchise history, Detroit has won a playoff game. Who's up next? Last edited by Brian Swartz : 02-20-2017 at 05:17 PM.*

12-06-2016, 12:07 AM	#2
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Prologue FOF8 impressed me with how faithfully it continued on with Detroit's long-standing tradition of ineptitude. In the 14 simmed seasons, they had a losing record 8 times. That's a little low, but usually the team hasn't been hopelessly bad ... just consistently mediocre at best. Five of the other six years they were 9-7, with one 10-6 year. Three times they made the playoffs. It looks like they likely actually got a second win in the post-season in 2019. A rather humorous story actually. After three years of Stafford throwing for 3600-3900 yards with no running back hitting 750, they bring in Joe Flacco. His 4048 passing are tops in this history, Tate gets 1082 receiving, also tops, and RB Taylor runs for nearly a thousand. They lose in the divisional round of course, after which Flacco gets the Erik Kramer treatment apparently. That's the one where you trade away the QB who led your team to the first playoff win in a generation(two years after the '94 win, Kramer set a Chicago Bears franchise record for passing yards: 3800+ and 29 TDs. True story.) That year was the third straight in a series of six years for Taylor as the Lions most productive feature back. He'd record nearly 3500 in the next three years combined, all losing seasons. Tate's gone as well at that point, and no receiver has more than 844 Lions receiving yards in the more than a decade since(Nick Chapman just last year in 2029). That's just ... I don't know what to even call that. Pathetic just doesn't quite seem to cover it. In 2023, with Taylor gone, they go 9-7 and lose in the Wild Card Round. This is followed by four more losing seasons, bottoming out at 3-13 in 2027. Third-year quarterback Rafael Nunn throws for over 3800 yards, but has as many interceptions(16) as touchdowns. He's the man for half the games in '28, and they actually win the division at 10-6 ... and lose their first game. Figuring he ain't the guy, Detroit's next move is to sign aging quarterback Teddy Bridgewater from Minnesota. After all, a 37-year-old who has more than 46k yards and 275 TDs for his career will really bring in the fans. Except that his 32 TD, 23 INT ratio the last couple years wasn't real enticing. He actually did better than that(15 and 5) and started every game for the third straight year. Not bad for a guy his age. Naturally, this being the Lions, it was almost good enough ... but not quite. They go 9-7, one game out of the playoffs. And that brings us up to where we are now. 2030, and I've been inflicted on the team as the new general manager. Or is that the other way around? Time will tell. The playoff record is now 2-15. I guess that's a little better ... sorta. Still only one NFC title game appearance, and half the people alive then are now dead since it was 36 years ago. No Super Bowl appearances.

12-06-2016, 12:18 AM	#3
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Super Bowl Champions(2016-2029) Of course, there were some successful teams. Denver won in '16 and '18, part of a six-year string of AFC winners. The Broncos win again in '25, making it three-for-three. Dallas and Green Bay make the game twice, splitting those appearances. Carolina loses two more. Kansas City's lone appearance is a doozy, smashing the Cowboys 59-20 in 2017. Seattle loses 24-23 to Denver in '25, but makes up for it by winning the just-completed Super Bowl LXIV 30-13 over San Diego, depriving the Chargers of back-to-back championships(another win in '21 for them). There have been no such dynasties. Tennessee's another team to make it their twice, winning and losing once each. Their 16-14 loss to Dallas in '23 is the lowest-scoring game. New England has lost a pair also, last being just a few years ago. The same four teams who hadn't made it? They still haven't. After all, football hates them, but none as much as it hates the Lions. Their misadventures are up next.

12-07-2016, 12:29 AM	#4
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	2029 Grades Team Performance: Above-Average Stadium: Good Profit: Very Good Roster: Bad(19) Ah, there's the rub, right where it always is. There's a thing called talent: we don't have it. Salary cap is $206.3M, up 3.7M from last year. $590K is the current minimum. Timmy Jernigan and Jay Ajayi have joined the Hall of Fame. Having been in cryostasis for the past decade and a half, I don't know who these guys are. 2030 Staff HC Josue Page -- Page is on a 3-year, $8.72M contract. Probably staying. 46, and already has a 68-80 career record with 2 playoff seasons. Focuses on TEs. Erhardt-Perkins is his preferred philosophy. Honestly though, we could do a lot worse. He's a little above average or better everywhere. Motivating, development including young talent are his best abilities. OC Horace Langham -- 1 year, $2.72M. Likes the Spread offense and focuses on QBs. 52 with 14 years of experience, none as head coach. Good with young players and development, very good at scouting, can't interview worth a darn. Wants another $600k to come back. Why not, we've got Ford money to burn ... except that I'd rather have somebody with the same philosophy as Page. DC Bert Griffin -- History, as his contract's up. AC Cole Downs -- 1 year, $2.73M so we've got to decide on him. 64, and a former HC with a 34-62 record. Easy to see why he's not one anymore. Focus position is WR. Discipline, scouting, player development are all excellent. Pretty good interviewer. Royally sucks at everything else though. Too many weaknesses for me to want to retain him. Strength Coach Terrace Gagnon -- 1 year, $1.26M. I'm definitely getting thrown in at the deep end of the pool ... only the head coach is a definite stay. Gagnon is 65, good at conditioning but a zero in strength training. Gotta do better than that. Before I can even look at the roster, we've definitely got some hires to make. We have a quality coach with a dodgy staff at best and little talent to work with. Alrighty then. Philadelphia gives George Dalton(50) his first shot. A defensive-minded coach who will improve his players with the best of them, his motivating skills are suspect, and playcalling ability virtually non-existent. Minnesota goes for experience, tabbing Cesar Bush(49), who is 24-25 for his career. He's got a ball-control, run straight ahead approach, and his teams always play hard, especially the younger players. Skill development, scouting, interviewing, playcalling are all decent at best. New York signs Karlos Dansby. 49, he has a lot of experience at 83-95, favoring a blitzing defense. I'd have seriously considered dumping Page if he was still available for us; he's that good. Play calling and interviewing are above-average, everything else is good or better. Dansby's a heck of a coach, and will make playing the Giants not much fun. Pittsburgh hires Will Blackmon(46). When you find a coach with a winning record(89-79) available you have to pay attention. Blackmon's teams are extremely disciplined, and while he doesn't have the abilities of Dansby overall, there are no weaknesses. Another proponent of skilled wideouts in a spread attack. Indianapolis grabs Kenyon Gomez(47). A 57-72 record for him. Favors the West Coast with emphasis on the blocking up front. Gomez is only decent as an interviewer, but belongs in the same class as the last couple of guys; he's a worthy NFL head coach. Houston goes with Wes Meier(48). He doesn't have the same level of experience at 20-28, and prioritizes the defensive secondary. Not terrible, but borderline as a head coach I think. Definitely not the guy to get the Texans to a championship level. Handles his players pretty well,. but playcalling and scouting talent both college and pro is maybe average. Then it was our turn. Of the coaches available, no question the best one is the one we have, Josue Page. He's here unless there's a compelling reason to go in a different direction, and I don't see one right now. Among the head coaches in the league, some are better and some are worse, but he's not one I'm ready to throw back. San Francisco nabs Bert Robinette(49). He's the second guy so far to get his first HC job, and with all due respect I understand why. Scouting and player development of all shades he's fantastic at, but he basically sucks at everything else. Would make a heck of an assistant somewhere I think, but not the guy to run a team. Cleveland gets Bryan Walters(43). Young guy, another one with his first top job. 9 years as an assistant, favoring the short passing game like Page does with an emphasis on WR. At least decent everywhere, good development, discipline, and scouting. Not overly impressive by any stretch, but the Browns could have done worse. A young guy like this is probably a good move for them. 7 total head coaching changes, including three new additions to the fraternity. Offensive Coordinator -- We no longer have the option of Langham even if we wanted him; he's working for Meier at Houston. There are a bunch of decent candidates available, but nobody that I'd call good. I end up with K.C. Horenstein, who is 55 and has never been on anyone's staff. Favors the Erhardt-Perkins and aside from having no ability to maintain team discipline whatsoever, he's competent. I definitely would like to upgrade this spot, and must admit in retrospect that keeping Langham was probably a better idea. Not off to a great start. I note Oakland signing Richie Igcognito as their OC, and can only grumble. Defensive Coordinator -- All the top guys available are 3-4 guys, when our players are more fitting for the 4-3. But we've got work to do on the players front anyway. The top choice is clearly Percy Bolerjack(57), who has a 27-23 record as a head coach. Only fair as a scout and motivator, he's great as an interviewer and with young talent and pretty good elsewhere. He'll be good in coaching up any linebackers we can find to fill the void there. Assistant Coach -- We can keep Cole Downs around if we want. Could also go with a former player like Ben Roethlisberger to make the fans happy. Doug Free stood out as the best though. He's not great, but he's pretty much decent or a little better everywhere. 46 with only 2 years experience, he's a spread offense fan which is a little different than what Page is going for here. He'll help mostly with the offensive line, giving Bridgewater throwing lanes ... in theory. Should be able to pitch in a little everywhere, which is what I was looking for. A modest upgrade over Downs I think. Strength Coordinator -- Jalen Dunlap** is another good, if not major, step forward. Above-average in both strength training and conditioning. He's 50, and this is his first job. Welcome to the ranks of NFL coaches, Mr. Dunlap. So Dunlap and Horenstein are new to this, and Free doesn't have a lot of experience. Bolerjack is the only guy who has been around for a while. We'll soon find out if they can work together or not, but I'm not anticipating any major buzz over most of these hires. Now, time to turn my attention to the collection of misfits otherwhise known as the Detroit Lions roster.

12-08-2016, 05:02 PM	#5
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	2030 Initial Roster Players under contract: 29. There's work to do. Salary Cap: $121M to work with, $990k in penalties. Quarterback It's not going to be Teddy Bridgewater this year; he retired. So did another QB from last year's team. That leaves us with Raul Nunn(26), a solid QB if you're after mobility and the home-run ball. Short passes and screens are foreign languages to him. He's 13-16 with 40 TDs and 27 INTs for his career. Smart and accurate on anything down the field really. A real conflict with Page's short-passing philosophy though. We need to decide whether to try to resign him, since he's a free agent. Nunn was our first-round pick four years ago. Ty Gelis(23) was last year's 7th-rounder. He's a little more adept at the short ball ... but not much. Prefers to bomb away himself, and he's a guy who could surprise but right now he really sucks. Great sense of timing is his best aspect at the moment. Definitely looks like we need to try to re-sign Nunn, who is from what we can see the best available QB on the market by far. There's not really a reasonable choice in the matter. A long-term solution can come later. Running Back Joseph Davis(25) had 1337 yards rushing last year and 9 TDs, with a 4.43 average. The consensus is that he's pretty clearly the best player on this team, and this is a contract year for him. He was selected 7th in the draft three years ago, and while he isn't hard to hit, he has good speed and power, an excellent all-around back. Ronnie Banks(25) was a second-round pick last season. He's a passable substitute but that's about it, although we still think there may be quite a bit of upside. He's a quality third-down back as a power runner or at times receiver if the defense is asleep, but doesn't do a whole lot else. Three years left on his contract, and he'll hang around for at least part of it to see if anything shakes loose. Bert Giles(24) was a FA signing last year who is ok at a variety of things, but we should be able to find better. We won't likely be resigning him as there's a lot better out there. Fullback Julio Ridenour(30) is an ok backup at best, but he's all we have. The Eagles drafted him in the final round back in '23, and he joined us last season on a two-year deal so there's one left. Pretty good inside runner, decent at picking up the blitz, but his blocking and most everything else really leaves quite a bit to be desired. Tight End We've got five that were on the team last year, and only one is for-certain coming back. That's Nick Chapman(22), a third-round pick last year who was a Second Team All-Pro as a rookie. He's not all that good yet, but is solid and should get better ... how much better is a very open question though. Doesn't help a whole lot in the run game, but a valuable receiver. 85 catches, 844 yards and a pair of TDs last year sure showed he can do that. 3 years left on his contract so he'll be around a while. Brent Harr(26) is actually probably a better overall player. He's another guy we figure to be the best FA at his position, so we definitely want him back. He doesn't have as much pass-catching production for his career as Chapman got his rookie year, but runs decent routes, has great hands, and is quite a good asset as a blocker in the run game. Pretty much is what he is at this point, while Chapman has more upside. Tyler Reed and Wayne Howard are decent backups who can stay or go; we'll probably resign at least one. Floyd Pool will likely be the same kind of player eventually, but not right now. Wide Receiver Three are back for sure, with two FAs. Any one of them could be called the best or worst of the group. There isn't anything better out there to be signed though, so we need to try to bring at least one or two of them back. Decent starter is a good description for their abilities. The three still on contract for another year are Karl Gayle(26), Larry Winzenfried(27), and Christian Bailey(24). Gayle had 42 receptions last year; Winzenfried just 8, after 39 the season before. Gayle's more reliable and steady, with Winzenfried more of a big-play guy. Bailey is probably the best of the quintent by a hair, but he has problems with drops and disappears on third down. Making big catches over the middle when the defense doesn't know it's coming is his forte. The others? Bubba Landolt(32) had 73 catches, 790 yards and 5 TDs last year; 39 scores for his career. He's fearless, a good weapon on kickoff returns, and fairly versatile. He was also part of the most recent Dallas championship team, and that's nothing to sneeze at. Caden Beane(26) is outstanding, except for the fact that he can't get open. If he had ever heard of the concept of route-running, he'd be an All-Pro. As it is, he's a guy that impresses you until you see him screw up his cuts. Looks like we're going to try to resign Landolt, but we'll let someone else deal with the unjustified fail that is Beane. Offensive Line C Arturo James(34) is in his 14th season, sixth with Detroit, and is the anchor here. He's been good but not great most of his career, with a 2nd Team All-Pro selection back in '23. Still keeps himself in good shape, and a solid, quality center even in his mid-30s. The tackles are set and an interesting pair. Another guy in the 'solid starter' category is LT Kent Williamson(28), the highest draft pick at #3 overall that the franchise has had in about two decades. That was two years ago. The 6-8 Williamson has disappointed with his physical conditioning some. He's definitely good at protecting the blind side, but only acceptable in the run game. The second-round selection that same year was RT Tanner Farr(25), who has actually turned out to be the better player. Farr became fast friends with the veteran James, and he's become the best lineman on the team. He's good in the run game, above-average in strength and pass-blocking technique. Last year he was a 1st Team All-Pro selection. Farr and Williamson both have two years left on their current contracts, James has one. The best of the guards also came in that draft two years ago, when apparently it was decided the whole offensive line needed to be remade. 7th-round pick LG Collin Briggs looks to be the best of the bunch. He's a little undersized at 6-3, 295, but is in excellent shape and is a quality, and improving, force as a run blocker. On passing plays though ... watch out. He allowed 10 sacks last year and it wasn't an abberation. RG Nickolas Bardon(25) was taken a round earlier, and he's got more work to do. Physically, he's a complete wimp, which is strange for a lineman but it is what it is. He's just 6-0, but has decent technique and should get quite a bit better in those areas, though there are questions. Shades a bit towards being better in running situations. Both of these gentlemen also have 2-year deals. T Fredrick Perkins(26) has proven himself nearly useless, and won't be returning. He only appeared in one game last year. There are three quality backups though. C Ricardo Whetstone(26) is still improving and could become a marginal starter. He thinks a bit more of himself though and is a bit aggravated at playing behind James. It's a contract year for him, so who knows whether he sticks around. G Mackenzie Stewart(34) is a free agent, but actually better than Bardon at this point in time and would definitely be worth resigning. Solid except for being weak in the passing game. T Terrance Nickles(33) is a fine run blocker but useless on passing plays, so despite his impressive size(6-7, 336) he's probably played his last game for the Lions. Kicker/Punter P Mitchell Wagner(24) has a strong, accurate leg and is as good as any of the other FA possibilities. He was undrafted last year, and was a good pickup. K Chandler Catanzaro(39) was let go by the Colts a couple years ago, and showed he's not done with a 32 of 36 showing, including 11 FGs from 40+ last season. Doesn't have a big leg anymore, but is extremely accurate and reliable. Both are free agents and would be as good as any options out there. Defensive Line DE Alex Covington(27) was a big free-agent pickup last year after New Jersey decided they didn't need him anymore. He's a household name as the best player on the defensive side of the ball, though his 5 sacks last year were a far cry from the 12.5 he produced for the Jets the year before. Covington's in the second year of a five-year deal for close to $60 million, so he's definitely a long-term investment. A smart player who is more about technique than physical prowess, Covington is capable of having a significant impact against both the run and the pass. The 3-4 is a good fit for him. Unfortunately, Covington is the only quality lineman that is assured of returning. DE Rico McCullough(22) figures to be a decent backup eventually, but not even that yet. DE Shaun Mahoney(22) is more talented, but he's not ready for more than a backup role right now and pass rush technique is a real issue ... probably why he was only given a 1-year deal last season. . DE Pete Vardaro(27) has had 8 sacks each of the past two years. He's not nearly as smart a player as Covington, but is actually slightly more gifted physically. Vardaro actually would probably be better served as a linebacker, but that would leave a hole that would need to be filled either way. DT Abel Kirchoff(28) is a hard-hitting pass rusher who can also contribute against the run, and DT Harold Lowe(26) has size at 6-7, but not the strength to go with it. He's incredibly smart though and has good technique, and will eventually be a regular starter somewhere I think. He's ready for that. DT Harold Shepard(26) is a decent reserve due to his skills in run defense. DT Sam Marian(24) will probably be moved to a reserve linebacker role; he's basically an emergency guy in either case. In any case, there's some big decisions to be made here. Covington needs some help, and I've got to decide who he'll get it from. Linebackers Here things are a little more set. There isn't as much talent, but the best of what's there is contracted for the coming season. MLB Bruce Small(26) led the team with 96 tackles two years ago, and might have again apart from an elbow injury last season. He's not a blitzer, or all that smart, but he can cover fairly well and plug the necessary holes against the run. SLB Harris Boult(31) is another fairly stupid player. He has a wider range of abilities but isn't quite as good overall. Regardless, Small and Boult are the sure things as decent starters here. Two others that would properly fit in the backup category are returning. T.J. Atkins(29) is solid against the run, and Jace Ogden(24) is more of a cover linebacker. One FA is a bit better than either; Charles Watt(30). Watt's not much of a hitter and can't cover anyone, but has pretty good pass rush technique and is probably the best in terms of run defense instincts among the linebacker corps. Then there's Kerry Coleman(24), who went undrafted and was picked up last year. Right now it doesn't look like he'll be quite good enough to keep around, but it's also really too early to tell with him. Looks like the kind of guy we might want to resign to fill up our final spots just in case something shakes loose. I'll probably be looking to resign Watt here, but there are some available players out there that would be at least a small upgrade over the other guys. This is also a position I'm definitely going to be looking at in the draft. Secondary We've got a couple of solid but not more cornerbacks. Roman Hartl(31) is a smart veteran, opportunistic and good in man coverage. Maxwell Oliver(26) has done quite well for a 7th-round pick, he's more balanced. Already has more interceptions(11-7) but is also is a hard-hitting run supporter. The nickel guy is Nickolas Berggren(24), a well-liked press corner type who is ok but still improving. Jay Berkowich(27) is barely adequate, mostly because he can't cover anyone; quite good against the run but that's it. Frankly I'd like to replace him if we have the opportunity. Veteran Lester Matthews(33) is a press corner who has been a Lion his whole career, notching 10 interceptions in 132 games. It seems clear that he's done though. At safety, all three players are coming back so things look pretty set there unless we can upgrade. SS Eugene Walley(28) might be the best of the secondary players. 5 picks for him last year, and while he often gets caught out of position he's quite solid when that isn't the case. FS Rico Campos(25) on the other hand makes almost no mental mistakes, vital at his position. A good cover guy, and middling or a hair below in other regards except for being a bit weak in supporting against the run. Backup Braxton Siders(23) is a weak point. The coaches just don't think he has much hope of getting better, and he's not terrible ... just not quite good enough. Add to that the fact that he wants to be playing more, and it seems unlikely Siders finishes out the remaining two years on his contract. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 12-08-2016 at 05:05 PM.

12-09-2016, 12:22 AM	#6
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Team-Building Philosophy This is probably a good point to talk about this a bit before I get into signing players. All other things being equal, my aim is to win in the trenches. Being able to control the line of scrimmage makes things easier on everybody else. Having HOF-worthy playmakers is the quickest path to a dynasty, but it's also a very rare thing to find. So linemen on both sides of the ball will be most valued, esp. offensively as the other team can't score if we don't let them on the field. A couple of the recently-hired coaches fit that bill, but DC Bolerjack loves his linebackers and HC Page his tight ends, so that'll fit in as well. We're going to need decent quality wideouts to make a short passing game work as well. There's no point in giving a coach players that can't execute his gameplan. Stadium Info Fan loyalty is high, and Ford Field is now entering it's 29th year. People are just starting to talk about the possibility of a new stadium, but that's not coming anytime soon. A modest recommended price increase will do. We're just above the league average which is a fine place to be. Attendance last year was 61.5k out of capacity of 65k. Facilities are still in good shape, except for the parking lot which needs quite a bit of attention. Draft Preview We've got one pick each round, 19th in the 1st. Utah State QB Darnell Tribble appears to be the big prize, with big things also expected of Texas Tech's DE Joey Hennessee. OT Bucky Onnen of San Jose State and DT Brendan Dritlein from Iowa State figure to do well also. We'll be spending our interviews on players more likely to fall to us. Free Agent Priorities From most important to least. QB Raul Nunn. It'll be a disaster if we let him get away. TE Brent Harr, DE Pete Vardaro, DT Abel Kirchoff DT Harold Lowe P Mitchell Wagner, K Chandler Catanzaro, LB Charles Watt, DE Shaun Mahoney ** WR Bubba Landolt, G Mackenzie Stewart Nobody other than possibly Davis is worth franchising, and I don't have to worry about that until later.

12-09-2016, 12:31 AM	#7
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Free Agency Starting Offers QB Raul Nunn -- Wants a quick deal, and not very happy with being benched last year in favor of Bridgewater. Still, he asks for $12.9M over three years. With other average quarterbacks making as much as that or more in a single season(Marcus Mariota, for example), that seems reasonable to me. I don't want to keep him longer than that as we're definitely going to be looking for a new, more suitable option, but we can't afford someone else taking him so I bump the total up to $14.7M. Davis likes the idea of bringing Nunn back, but we had to do it anyway. TE Brent Harr -- 3 years, $7.82M is a reasonable request. No reason to quibble. DE Pete Vardaro -- 2 years, $5.89M. I'd like a longer deal but we can handle that possibility later. DT Abel Kirchoff -- 4 years, $25.5M. That's not cheap, but he's one of the best FAs this year and I don't want him leaving so I up it a bit to $27M. DT Harold Lowe -- 3 years, $7.62M P Francisco Hardy is a significant improvement over Wagner, and one of the top handful in the league. He wants $24.9M over five years, which is somewhat more than he's worth. If Wagner wasn't willing to return for a fraction of the price(2 years, $2.08M) without even testing the market I would have seriously considered it. K Chandler Catanzaro wasn't the only option, but the other ones weren't good enough to tempt me. Wants 1 year, $4.5M. It's more than he's worth, I'd say. I reduce the signing bonus to offer him 4 flat. Even that's too high, but he won't even consider it. Screw it. It's only one year, and we've got tons of cap room. Twerp probably knows it. LB Charles Watt -- 2 years, $4.72M. A couple of the younger players don't care for his 'veteran leadership'. The haven't earned the right to dictate such things, and I submit the offer anyway. DE Shaun Mahoney -- 3 years, $6.9M. Signs immediately. WR Bubba Landolt -- Receivers aren't cheap. He wants a 3-year deal, but at 32 I don't want to make that commitment to him. He's not willing to budge on the 3-year demand, so we're at an impasse. Landolt isn't good enough to make me change my mind yet, and word is he plans to wait a few weeks before making up his mind. We'll see who else jumps in. G Mackenzie Stewart -- 1 year, $2.67M. That works for a quality backup. That's all of the resigning stuff. Who's out there that we want to take a run at? FB Terrance Lafountain is a fine one, released by Washington. Good or better blocker and quality outlet as a third-down pass-catcher. He wants to hang out a while and sign late in the process; current ask is 3 years, $10.6M. Almost twice as much as any fullback in the league is currently making. Still might well be worth it, but we'll wait and see if his demands come down. FS Ray Joseph would be a significant upgrade over Campos. He's a veteran, and is asking for a relative pittance ... but Eugene Walley doesn't want to play alongside him which could be an issue. I decide to trust him, and cancel the deal. WR Roosevelt Delery would give us everything Landolt would, and probably a small upgrade, for less money. Also 32, he's in decline but is willing to sign for two years. A couple seasons ago he had 92 catches and 1100 yards for the Eagles; 73 last year. 42 career TDs. For 2 years, $8.54M, a hair over his request, I'll definitely bite. Landolt doesn't want him around ... wouldn't be his problem, would it. Nunn's excited about the possibility, and even though a couple others aren't fans that's enough for me. OG Hugh Boult has bounced around various teams, but he's a quality veteran who can produce and would add another solid starter to the line. With the young but not-quite-there guards we have, I offer him the 3 years, $7.91M he wants. Boult's going to wait a while so we'll see if anyone matches. DT Todd Anderton is a pretty good, versatile player who is equally adept against the run or pass. He'd add some quality but more importantly versatility. Wants to get paid(3 years, 27.8M.) It's farily high, so I tell him we'll go with 24.3M and see what he says. Not willing to consider it right now. He's not super-impatient so we'll see if he comes down. LB Bert Delgado is a smart veteran who would definitely fill a need for us. Wants an arm and a leg though. We'll wait him out a bit. That's it. Time to see how everyone reacts to our proposed deals. Week 3 -- Nunn accepts our offer, which is huge ... we've got our quarterback for the year. He's the only one who does though. FS Ray Joseph heads to Green Bay. Super. Now we get to play against him. RB Shannon Kelley, a former first-round Detroit pick who had 1132 and 7 TDs for Carolina last year, heads to the Vikings. The North seems to be loading up here, I don't like the looks of that. We're the offer to beat on all of the other submissions so far, and the other players we're interested in haven't budged yet. Week 4 -- DT Todd Anderton signs with the Packers. Sigh. Gave him even more than he wanted(3 years, $32.4M). I don't think he's worth that price, but maybe we'll find out this year. Ranked as the top FA this year, so maybe I missed the boat there ... but he's getting paid like a Top 10 DT and he's just not IMO. Vardaro and Kirchoff sign our offers so it's not like we're getting left out in the cold. Make Delgado an offer but he tells us where to shove it. Week 5 -- RB Gavin Gearhardt(1050 yards, 6 TDs for Tampa Bay) heads to Seattle. Bert Delgado takes way too much money from San Diego. DE J.J Nichols(7.5 sacks last year, 46.5 career) is off to Buffalo from New England. LB Jerald Cote(106 tackles last year for Jacksonville) has had four teams back up the money truck to his door and still hasn't decided who he'll play for. We get WR Roosevelt Delery, so no need for Landolt. Still waiting on the others to make up their minds. I'm either going to be the smart GM who didn't blow his wad on absurd offers, or the stupid penny-pincher. We'll see. LB Lincoln Adams looks like a good value, 3 years, 20M we offer. Does some of everything. Week 6 -- Cote's off to Houston, 26M over 2 years. He'll suffer terribly. The Texans also bring in quality veteran safety Max Handy, and a lot of the mid-level guys are starting to sign. Nothing for us. Lafountain's demands are now down to being half as ridiculous as they were before. Week 7 -- G Mackenzie Schwartz and DT Harold Lowe enhance our depth as they commit. WR Bubba Landolt gets his three years from the Saints. Not thrilled to see him go, but the price was simply too high. The board exploded with activity this week as over a dozen ranked FAs inked deals, a couple of dozen others as well. At this point there aren't many playes that jump out. Week 8 -- LB Charles Watt is the latest to join next year's roster. WR Caden Beane officially leaves for New York. Not sad to see WR Hardy Lake(9 TDs for the Bears last year) leave the division for Arizona. P Francisco Hardy gets 5 years, 23M to kick for the LA Rams. I offer to make LaFountain the highest-paid FB in the league by about 15% and he won't even consider the offer. Ok then. Nobody else has matched his price yet either. Week 9 -- We get LB Lincoln Adams, a nice addition. G Hugh Boult as well. LaFountain gets a ridiculous amount of money(9.2M, 3 years) from Washington, who has been quite active this year. He's making just over 2M next year; no other fullback is at 1.5 or more, and a few are better players. LB Moe Henderson(92 tackles for Carolina) is off to Denver. Week 10 -- K Chandler Catanzaro finally inks his overpriced deal, having figured out nobody else will best it. Week 11 -- TE Brent Harr is our final signing. Took forever, but nobody else got in the act. Probably could have had him cheaper, but whatever. OT Terrance Nickles is off to Seattle for pretty cheap. He's not worth much at this point. That's it.

12-10-2016, 09:00 PM	#8
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	We've now got 42 players on contract. Add in 7 draftees and we'll be sitting fairly good. Offensive needs: FB, backup QB, backup RB, 1 or 2 TEs Defensive needs: depth everywhere, another LB preferably a WLB. 2030 NFL DRAFT 1. Buffalo -- QB Darnell Tribble. Obvious pick is obvious. 2. Atlanta -- QB Harris Asomugha(Colgate). Didn't see that one coming. They insist his upside is as good as Tribble's. We'll see. 3. Cleveland -- QB Les Fedo(Texas Southern). It's a trend. Looks like a bust who'll never be good enough to be a regular starter. 4. Miami -- QB Glenn Strickland(Army). Good grief. There are other positions. Better pick than Fedo, but still a reach. 5. Oakland -- RB Travis Wolfsmith(Auburn). Could be a huge steal here. The early reviews say Wolfsmith was highly undervalued and is a first-year impact player. 6. Houston -- OT Bucky Onnen(San Jose State). Thought he'd go a bit earlier, but definitely the best blocker in the draft. Reports are the Texans are very happy and think they have a future All-Pro. 7. Tampa Bay -- DE Bernard Henry. Not even one of the top projected DEs, but he might surprise. 8. San Francisco -- OT Rod Watkins(Michigan State). Project who could be great, or could be a dud. Risky. 9. Indianapolis -- TE Hugh Vautour(Oregon State). Should contribute right away, but there'll probably be some eventually buyer's remorse here. 10. Tennessee -- WR Weston Bloomgarden(Arizona State). Another guy who really could be a steal. Love the look of him at this point. 19. Detroit -- I really had no choice here. The #2 player on the pre-draft boards was still around, DE Joey Hennesee(6-4, 287, Texas Tech). There were conditioning questions but he did well at the combine, displayed a positive attitude and intelligence, and checks all the boxes really. Consensus was that we'd just found our future defensive linchpin, or at least one of them. 2nd Round -- We went for need here, taking OLB Jameson Favre(West Virginia). Pretty good upside and excellent pass rush techinque, no slouch in the run game either. Middling expectations here; scouts say he projects to be of quality starter caliber, similar to the best of our current LBs. 3rd round -- Thought about a tackle here, or also by far the best FB left, Clay Snyder. Looked like all of those players will still likely be around though if we waited a round. All of the remaining quarterbacks were of the 'bombs away' variety and we don't really want that. In the end I decided to keep going with defense and DE Willie Irvin(California). He was projected to go in the middle of the first round and is hte only player left that we interviewed. Our evaluation was that he was highly underrated, which makes sense because the consensus of many is that he royally sucked. Smart, looks like a good fit with the players we already have ... and with the likelihood of moving Vardaro to linebacker, we'll have room for another guy at this position. 4th round -- Still a number of decent OTs on the board, but I was wrong about Snyder; Cleveland nabbed him. Opportunity lost there probably. Ended up taking C Connor Grier(Memphis). Like him the best by far of the remaining offensive linemen. He's a project to be sure, but still looked like the best option. 5th Round -- Tough call here, but OT Roger Kelly(Memphis, 6-0, 309) was picked. Looks like the most ready of the available players, and was as good as any of them according to the scouts. Could be great, could be a total bust. Consensus puts him somewhere in the middle of that right now. 6th Round -- TE Ellis Shumway(Illinois) jumped out due to potential upside. 6-5, 273, not very strong but pretty good combine results, smart, looks like he contribute in multiple ways. Scout verdict is that he's useless now but might become decent. 7th Round -- QB Alejandro Fitzgerald(Lousiana State). Project who looks to be as close to a sure thing as there is. The hope is he'll be the long-term backup ... we're definitely still looking for the starter of the future. Early Take -- We get a B grade, middle of the pack. New England topped out with an A+, New York was last with a C-. In the NFC North, Green Bay did well with an A-, Chicago got a B+, and Minnesota a C+. So by that count we were third out of four. I'm hoping that's not accurate. Post-draft we have 49 players under contract, and still a mountain of salary cap room($72M plus). I'd like to still sign a backup RB, backup QB for this year, another TE, another CB, and a replacement FB.

12-10-2016, 09:07 PM	#9
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Suspensions Miami QB Matthew Whalen has been suspended for this year. He frankly isn't worthy of being more than a subpar backup, but they don't have a very good situation over there, and the Dolphins were considering him as a possible starter so it's definitely a blow. Buffalo OT Kennedy Hoffman was also suspended, and that's a big one. He's one of the strongest players in the league, and a good and still improving pass-blocker, one of two high-quality offensive linemen the Bills have. Both were cited for personal conduct policy violations. Trade Offers Green Bay offers FS Derrick Kniker(25) and a 4th-round pick next year for CB Maxwell Oliver. Tough call. Oliver would be a starter for us and is a somewhat better player, but he's really not much of a cover guy and I did want a new backup safety. I decide to pull the trigger on this one. Los Angeles wants LB Bruce Small for a third-round selection. Not interested there ... I don't have linebackers to spare. So now I'm looking for two corners. Late Free Agency Here's who the Lions like out of what's left: QB Sean Newman(31) -- Serviceable backup quality, last played for Seattle in '28, 5-7 with 3 of the victories via 4th-Q comeback. Looks to be the best option by far. 2 years, $2.23M. RB Isaac Barrow(33) -- Definitely a short-term solution due to his age. Barrow is still smart and versatile with power and speed, approaching 8000 career yards and has 63 rushing TDs. Jacksonville for most of his career, then Arizona. Nunn doesn't want him here though. Moron. Not going to irritate our QB over a backup though. RB Deron Page(31) -- 1 year, $1.4M. A less prolific career, but Page has speed, finesse, and the ability to get to the sticks on third down. He'll do. FB Norman Wright(29) -- The only choice really as he's still improving. He'd upgrade this position from a disaster(our #2 need according to the staff) to merely inadequate, and could yet become a serviceable starter. Run blocking and the occasional third-down carry are expected to be his roles, though he could surprise with the occasional reception also. 2 years, $2.17M. TE Ernie Snodgrass(27) was another clear call. 75 receptions for Washington last year; tough and runs great routes. Not the best blocker in the world though. Wants a long-term deal, and a fair amount more than he's worth. Easy to see why the Redskins cut him ... but Page does love his tight ends, and it's not like we don't have the money. 5 years, $31.6M. CB Ronnie Copeland(27) -- Best cover guy we can find, 1 year, $980k. CB Amari Harding(27) -- 2 years, 3.48M. More of a zone player but you take what you can get. SS Braxton Siders is now officially gone. We'll have to make one more cut probably but I'm not sure who that'll be. Week 2 -- FB Norman Wright and CB Amari Harding sign. FB Julio Ridenour is our second cut ... I don't see any use for him now . Week 3 -- CB Ronnie Copeland signs. RB Deron Paige goes to Carolina for the same money we offered him. QB Sean Newman's been offered 2 years, $2.24M by Houston ... literally 10k more than we did. I up our offer to 3M even. RB Brett Reese is our next option. 2 years, $2M ... he's averaged 4.5 yards a carry last couple of seasons. Can't do much else, but we just want someone to handle the load if Davis goes down. Week 4 -- QB Sean Newman, RB Brett Reese, and TE Ernie Snodgrass all sign. That's 53. We're done here. Cap number is still very high, at 65.3M remaining. Nobody is as high as 30M anywhere else in the league. Contract Negotiations The top issue to deal with was that of RB Joseph Davis, in the final year of his rookie contract. He wants $90M over 5 years. That's a lot of money, but he's worth it. He has speed, power, intelligence, a good attitude, and is a receiving threat as well. Over 1700 yards from scrimmage last year, and the coaches say that he's not the kind of guy who is at all likely to see his productivity take a dive. The requested deal would make him one of the highest-paid backs in the NFL ... but he's worth it. There's always some concern and hesitation when shelling out this kind of cash, but he's about as good and as important of an investment in there is. I agree to his terms with no haggling. If we wait until next year ... he's a lot more loyal to winning than he is the Lions, and those two terms are not exactly synonymous. Not a risk I'm willing to take. Davis is the only key player whose contract is up at the end of the season. We do have several veterans who it would be foolhardy to extend without seeing how much they still have left to give; K Chandler Catanzaro, C Arturo James, G Mackenzie Stewart, and LS Ethan Madison. A few others haven't demonstrated enough to warrant a new deal yet; LB T.J. Atkins, C Ricardo Whetstone, DT Sam Marian, and CB Ronnie Copeland. The final category is the toughest to decide on. A group of four players who are starters or competing for such a spot. Three wideouts are on that list; Larry Winzenfried, Karl Gayle, and Christian Bailey. FS Rico Campos is also in that boat. All are better than any free-agent we could replace them with, but not all that much better. Gayle's demands are pretty high IMO. Just because we have the money doesn't mean we should spend it, and I'm not totally sold on Winzenfried. Bailey gets what he wants(4 years, $24M) as does Campos(3 years, $11.6M). That guarantees at least two quality receivers coming back next year(Delery and Bailey). We're now down to just under $50M in cap room to spare, and will have a little more than that but not much next season. I'm happy with where things sit. Training Camp Things got a little interesting when figuring out who's going to play where in the defensive front. Turns out that Pete Vardaro** isn't really going to fit in a switch to linebacker due to a complete lack of coverage skills. This leaves us with a glut of defensive ends(six), and a high likelihood that we're going to have players ticked off about playing time. Eventually figured out how we're going to approach it, I still think we're a little weak at one of the linebacker spots but it is what it is.

12-12-2016, 06:38 PM	#10
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Season Ticket Sales: 45,400. Preseason Week 2: New England @ Detroit One never puts much stock in pre-season games, but you can learn a few things. Our first scoring drive ended in a 23-yard FG by Catanzaro after a 1st and goal at the 1. Davis lost a yard, then a pass to Chapman lost four yards, then they broke up a swing pass ... yeah. A pair of TD runs by Davis put us in front 17-7 at the half, and the same count in the second half gave us a 34-14 win. 216 rushing yards was the key here. C Arturo James, G Hugh Boult, and CB Ronnie Copeland will take next week off with minor injuries. Week 3: Detroit @ San Diego The Chargers are AFC Champions two years running. They held a 14-13 halftime edge, with an impressive drive early and late while we controlled the interim. Joseph Davis rushed for 75, while Hugh Harding was 14 of 17 for 157 passing yards for the Chargers. A heck of a game there. Harding comes out in the second half, but our quarterback Raul Nunn stays in and directs back-to-back touchown drives, only to watch our defense crumble and lose a 30-14 fourth-quarter lead. Backup QB Roger Von Wyss tormented our attempts to stop them, and then Tony Marshall ran 22 yards for the game-winner in a 37-30 overtime loss. It would be hard for me to be more disgusted after a pre-season game than I am right now. 30 of 37 passing for the Chargers. Winzenfried is a little banged up, and it's pretty clear to me that we need a fifth WR. Jaylen Harlen(27), who has worn out his welcome in Green Bay, will fill that role. Week 4: Miami @ Detroit Nunn had his first interception of the pre-season early on, and the Dolphins jumped out to an early lead. After a Davis TD, S Eugene Walley returned the favor for us ... only to have Nunn throw another pick in the red zone! Dude, seriously, get a grip. With Nunn already out of the game, we still manage a 14-13 halftime lead. They got the only score of the second half though, and handed us a 20-14 defeat. Week 5: Detroit @ Kansas City The Chiefs drive the length of the field and score on their opening possession, but Detroit rallies. Strange goal-line sequence early in the second quarter with KC continually stopping the Lions for a loss, only to have a couple of penalties give them new life. Finally we punch it in to take the lead. The teams combine to complete 22 of the first 24 passes, many of them for significant yardage. Defense pretty much doesn't exist. 20-17 Detroit at the half. Wet conditions or no, the Lions fumble it away three times in the second half and two lead to Kansas City scores. Newman directs two scoring drives in the 4th when it looked to be over, a reversal of the San Diego game and we go to overtime. LB Jace Ogden** makes an interception in Chiefs territory, leading to game-winning field goal in a wild 41-38 win.

12-13-2016, 12:43 PM	#11
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Green Page DE Joey Hennesee and DE Willie Irvin feature 3rd and 4th here. Interestingly the top two are also defensive ends: Junior Velasquez(Tennessee) and Bernard Henry of Tampa Bay. Tennessee has three players on this list. Top pick QB Bernard Tribble is only 8th. It's far too early to claim him as a bust, but there are whispers ... Grey Sheet Kirchoff, Vardaro, and Nunn were all ranked highly and we resigned them, though we missed out on #1 Todd Anderton. #23 Roosevelt Delery and #42 Lincoln Adams are mentioned as our top signings. Departed WRs Bubba Landolt(#50) and Caden Beane(#57) are the only ranked players lost. I'm definitely calling this a win overall. Fastest Man -- WR Blaine Dixon(Buffalo), 4.25. Brady Helms(Minnesota) and James Morton(Washington) come in at 4.28 Strongest man -- DT Bryce Tillery(Carolina) & OT Steven Schultz(Cleveland) both have 43. Several players managed a 42. Most Athletic -- WR Anthony Langlois(Atlanta) is tops with 89. RB Dixon Bentsen(Jacksonville), WR Brady Helms(Minnesota), and WR Andy Flemons(New York) all recorded an 88. Regular Season Outlook Now it's time for the games that count, and we've learned some more about this Lions team. Primarily to always expect the unexpected. QB -- The backup situation doesn't look as good as we hoped. Despite the fine performance against Kansas City, Sean Newman appears to be a stopgap option at best. Ty Gelis has improved a bit but not nearly enough, and rookie Alejandro Fitzgerald's outlook has gotten worse; he's probably not ever going to be good enough to make the grade. If Nunn doesn't play well or stay healthy, we're in trouble. RB -- Joseph Davis looks like the best back in the league. Brett Reese is a competent backup. FB -- Norman Wright isn't quite as good as we hoped, but he'll do ok. TE -- Brent Harr will miss the first few weeks with a calf strain. Nick Chapman still has the best potential, but both he and Ernie Snodgrass are far better pass-catchers than they are blockers. WR -- Nothing really is new here. Delery, Gayle, Winzenfried, and Bailey are all capable; none are mokre than that. OL -- C Arturo James still is having a few issues with a knee sprain but he'll play in our opener. Seems like half of the good running plays were had were facilitated by G Collin Briggs. T Tanner Farr has really established himself as the best of this group by a considerable margin. K/P -- P Mitchell Wagner is pretty much what we thought he was. K Chandler Catanzaro has regressed to the point where all he really has is his accuracy, but he was perfect in the preseason. DL -- Alexis Covington is even better than we thought, ready to come into his own as the defensive star we're paying him to be. Top draft pick Joey Hennessee is solid right now, and may even be a little better than Covington in time. Fellow rookie Willie Irvin is looking nearly as good, and Pete Vardaro continues to play reasonably well. Defensive end has a wealth of talent. Abel Kirchoff and Harold Lowe look basically interchangeable as tackle, with Lowe improving and Kirchoff regressing. LB -- Bruce Small has come into his own as the leader of this group ... and then suffered a broken fibula in the second quarter of our last game. He's out for the first half of the year now. Aside from Lincoln Adams, the rest appear to be not quite as good as we thought. I expect this to be an aspect of the team that struggles. Sec -- CB Roman Hartl looks almost good enough to be a #1 corner, and he'll have to play through a groin injury also suffered against the Chiefs. Nickolas Berggren has shown unexpected improvement as the other corner, and looks like he has more upside than expected, but he's still only a passable starter at best. No real change at safety, with Eugene Walley still headlining that group. Summary Quarterback -- Below Average Running Backs -- Davis is the best, a hair below average at the fullback spot Receivers -- Average or just below on tight ends, but our receivers are poor, not good enough to cut it. Offensive Line -- One of the better groups of tackles around, but pretty poor at the internal center and guard spots Kicker/Punter -- Punting's definitely a strength, roughly 5th or so; Kicking roughly average. Defensive Line -- The ends are very good, but poor tackles. I don't think they're that bad, but that's the verdict. Linebackers -- Below average in the middle, pretty bad on the outside Secondary -- Below average to poor across all positions Davis will draw a lot of attention, and there's just enough weapons for us to be successful putting points on the board. Weaknesses at linebacker and in the secondary, particularly without Small, are going to make things difficult on defense. A mediocre team with a lot of fairly high-scoring games appears to be what we have here. There's talent, just not enough of it. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Power Ratings -- 29th out of 32. Eeek. Arizona is far ahead of the rest of the league according to this, with Chicago, Baltimore, Washington, and Jacksonville following. Minnesota is 31st, so we still aren't last in the NFC North. Cohesion -- We're decent here in Passing, but dead last in Offensive Line. Defensive Front and Secondary are near the bottom as well. One last-minute roster change as we were at 54 players. Really came down to the fact that we just have too many defensive ends. Our fourth-round pick a year ago, Rico McCullough**, just doesn't have a spot here anymore. He's not good enough to contribute now, isn't a guy who is expected to get a ton better, and ceiling appears to be backup quality. Too many much better players ahead of him, so he's gone.

12-13-2016, 03:08 PM	#12
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Week 1: Detroit @ Chicago Line: Bears by 14 Injuries: TE Brent Harr(Strained Calf), LB Bruce Small(Broken Fibula) are out. C James Arturo(Probable - Spraind Knee) and CB Roman Hartl(Questionable - Pulled Groin) will play, CB Amari Harding(Probable - Shoulder Tendinitis) will not. Preview Only Arizona is favored by more(17) this week, while the best game looks to be two-time defending AFC Champs San Diego visiting Oakland; the Raiders are favored by a single point in that one. Chicago is a legitimate title contender this year and the favorite in the NFC North. The reason for that is they have arguably the finest collection of weapons on offense in the NFL. QB J.T. Meehan had 33 TDs, 7 INTs last year with 3600 yds and a 109 rating. He's become the consensus top quarterback in the game today. RB Moe Riddols is as good as anyone not named Davis at that spot. He only gets about 12-13 carries a game instead of the 16-18 he'd get on many teams, but still rushed for nearly a thousand yards each of the past two seasons with 4.75 ypc in '29. WR Carter Ritter is top pass-catcher and an outstanding one, 1093 yards, 76 receptions and 11 TDs last year. Topping it all off, the line is one of the best in the business, with T Reuben Long one of the top five players, regardless of position, in the league. The whole group is of pretty good quality though. Defensively, the Bears aren't nearly as scary. They have a solid but not better defensive line. The linebacking corps is even worse than ours, and the secondary is of similar quality. We should be able to move the ball. But slowing down Chicago looks to be nearly an impossible task. We're definitely up against it here. We drive it 58 yards in 12 plays, 6:32 for the opening possession before settling for a field goal. Started off great but had some miscues in the running game that forced us into third-and-long in their territory. Converted one of them, but were a couple yards short on the last one. Nunn was 4 of 5 for 27 yards, pretty good work. Detroit 3, Chicago 0(8:28 1Q) on a 34-yd kick by Chandler Catanzaro. Chicago strikes back, going 75 yards in 9 plays without facing a third down once. Three big gainers when we had the receiver doubled. Even a holding penalty was just a temporary setback for the Bears. Meehan takes it in himself from 3 yards out. Chicago 7, Detroit 3(4:04 1Q). Another promising drive stalls thanks to Chicago DE Dominique Middleton. He pressures Nunn into an errant second-down throw, then sniffs out a third-down screen for no gain. The ever-accurate Catanzaro just misses right from 45 yards out. A second holding penalty on the Bears is more fruitful. On third-and-3, Hennessee gets enough pressure to force Meehan's first incompletion. Another long drive, 83 yards in 12 plays, ends with a 1-yd toss from Nunn to Ernie Snodgrass for a go-ahead score and our first TD of the season! Several running plays with mixed success, but the key one was near midfield. Middleton brought pressure again, but Nunn got away from him and got the pass out to Karl Gayle, who turned a 5-yard gain into 38. Detroit 10, Chicago 7(7:37 2Q). After a Bears 3-and-out, we go for it on 4th-and-1 near midfield ... and Reese loses a yard on the run. Several plays later, Meehan finds Tyler for a 20-yard TD, despite pressure from Hennessee. Chicago 14, Detroit 10(2:25 2Q) Davis turns a dump-off pass into a 37-yard gain, and eventually we take advantage with a 30-yd boot from Catanzaro(Chicago 14, Detroit 13)(0:03 2Q). At the half we have a 291-159 yards advantage, yet trail due to the failed 4th-down play and a missed field goal, along with getting only one TD from four good drives. A muted day so for for Davis(10 carries, 39 yds). Nunn is 18 of 25 for 204 and the one score, Meehan 7 of 11 for 108. Definitely doing better than expected, but we should be ahead. The big shocker elsewhere is Seattle winning at Arizona 24-6 so far; the Cardinals are the prohibitive favorite to win the title this year, but are not looking the part. Three-and-out again for Chicago. They help us move down the field with a penalty, but a holding call on Davis keeps us from scoring. We couldn't do anything on the next drive. Eventually, Meehan found star wideout Carter Ritter against double coverage in the endzone for a 7-yard score. Chicago 21, Detroit 13(5:02 3Q) Roosevelt Delery brings back the ensuing kickoff 99 yards, and we're right back in it!Chicago 21, Detroit 20(4:46 3Q) Chicago gets moving again, but they stall on the Lions side of the field. Jorge Rice nails one from 48 yards to extend their lead. Chicago 24, Detroit 20(1:10 3Q) Another long drive ends in some frustration as our red zone offense is pitiful. Davis loses 6 on first and goal from the 9, then Nunn misfires badly twice in a row. Catanzaro makes from 32 to at least give us the three points. Chicago 24, Detroit 23(9:20 4Q) A big sack by LB Charles Watt, the first of the game either direction, forces a punt. We get it back on our 12 with 6:20 left. Three and out, tried to go deep to Chapman right away but it didn't work. Ritter returns the punt to midfield for the Bears. Riddols breaks off a 26-yard run, but we stop them inside the 10. A short kick by Jorge Rice is good. Chicago 27, Detroit 23(2:02 4Q). So it's down to one final drive, we need a touchdown to win it. After a third-down sack by S Russell Fulcher(Davis' blocking responsibility) we were in trouble, but Gayle turns nothing into 19 yards and a first down at our 45. A screen to Delery gets 20 more, but we're running out of time. Nunn takes a desperation shot to Chapman, overthrows it badly, and WR Christian Bailey gets injured in the scrum. Final Score: Chicago 27, Detroit 23. Better than we were expected to do, but not good enough. Joseph Davis(17 carries, 42 yards) was a total non-factor in the second half. Raul Nunn(33-48, 360, TD) cooled off after a fast start. We hold the Bears without a third-down conversion(0-6), and outgain them 447-343, but still lose. Missed FG, 4th-down conversion, but also we couldn't put the ball in the end zone. Top Recievers: TE Ernie Snodgrass(11-81, TD); Karl Gayle(7-48); Christian Bailey(7-56); Roosevelt Delery(4-64) Rushing: Davis(17-42), Nunn(5-24) Defense: S Eugene Walley(10 tackles, 1 ast); ILB Lincoln Adams(6 tkl, 2 ast); OLB Charles Watt(3 tkl, 1 ast, 1 sack). Watt had our only sack, with Covington and Hennessee getting one hurry and one knockdown each. Walley also had 2 of our 3 passes defensed. Blocking: 4 key blocks for G Collin Briggs, 3 for C Arturo James. Nobody else had more than 1. Only three players got as many carries as Davis did in the first week and produced less. Green Bay's Lamar Meyer had 182 in their 31-10 win over Minnesota; rookie Travis Wolfsmith(116) was among five others to reach the century mark. Davis is 27th in rushing yards and is getting paid to do a lot more than that. He also had the most screwups(7 in 67 plays) among the offensive players. There were quite a few on the defensive side, and many of them by our best players. Too early to draw any firm conclusions obviously, but I'll keep an eye on this and probably do an aggregate grouping. Pete Vardaro isn't happy about only getting 7 plays of action; he thinks he's good enough not to be a backup. He's not wrong. With Covington on one side and rookie Joey Hennessee on the other, it's tough though. He's probably a hair better than Hennessee right now, but it's close and there's no question where the future lies. Third-round pick Willie Irvin didn't see any action, and he could also make an case for being in the mix. The most obvious solution here would of course be to trade Vardaro. Jacksonville is the most apparent destination as they are seriously in need for a second quality player at that spot opposite George Morris. I inquire about the possibility of a straight-up trade for veteran LB Cornelius Pritchett, and they accept. That'll give them even more serious issues at linebacker, but none worse than they already have at end. It patches a hole for us, and gives Vardaro the kind of role he deserves. Everyone wins. I tend to not do many trades in these kinds of games in order to not abuse the AI, etc., and will probably never trade during the draft for that reason, but I made an exception here. Just seemed to be the right thing to do for Vardaro if I could find a win-win situation. He's a productive player who deserves a chance to play regularly, and now Irvin will get some snaps as well. Nunn(due to being a backup last year), Winzenfried, and Whetstone also aren't happy. Nunn will hopefully get there as he continues to get more starts, while the days of the other two in a Detroit uniform are probably numbered. Other games: At this point in the season I'll just look at the surprising results. Kansas City was a mild surprise in a 38-31 win @ Denver, the Broncos having been favored by a field goal. Denver tied it up on a field goal with 11 seconds to play, rallying from a 31-18 4th-quarter deficit. They couldn't stop the Chiefs in overtime, and nine penalties were probably the biggest difference. Probably the biggest upset was Philadelphia invading Washington and coming out with a 28-23 win; the Redskins were strong 11-point favorites but trailed 28-10 after three and came up short in a comeback attempt. Washington was able to move the ball much more effectively, but was undone by a combination of factors. QB Gage McGee was 30 of 36 passing, but was sacked seven times by the aggressive Eagles defense, and an early third-quarter interception led to the big deficit. It was also another game where penalties played a big role. San Diego got themselves destroyed 45-17 in Oakland, a game that was expected to be one of the closest this week. The Chargers have a lot of work to do if they are going to win the AFC a third straight time. It was a straight-up buttkicking in every facet. Seattle's throttling of Arizona, 38-6, was simply astonishing. The Cardinals got only 235 yards of total offense; they couldn't get anything going. The consensus in pre-season was that Arizona is the best team talent-wise in the NFL, head-and-shoulders above the competition. They sure didn't look it. Barry Buchanan, one of the top quarterbacks in the league(4000 yards, 33 TD, just 3 INTs last season) was just 10 of 24 throwing the ball. Lots of questions to answer for head coach Adam Vinatieri**. A really exciting one in the bay area, with San Francisco narrowly winning 28-27 against Los Angeles on Lewis Reado 10-yard pass to Norm McWilliams with just over a minute to go. The Rams had been slight favorites to get the road win. In the lowest-scoring game of the opening week, the Cleveland Browns went into Pittsburgh and somehow came away with a 10-6 win despite only 211 yards of offense. A 2-yd plunge by Julian Johnstone in the second quarter was the only touchdown, and it held up for the win on a cool, blustery day.

12-13-2016, 08:30 PM	#13
Olsson High School JV Join Date: Feb 2004	Interesting read so far! Close one against Chicago. Let's see if it was a fluke! ��

12-27-2016, 11:50 AM	#15
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Week 3: Tampa Bay(1-1) @ Detroit(1-1) Line: Even Preview: Tampa will definitely be looking to bounce back after their blowout loss at Baltimore last week. QB Nick Kletch has just 315 yards passing, 0 TDs and 1 INT so far this year. Top RB Demetrius Boccaccio(13 carries, 29 yards) hasn't been lighting it up either. They won via turnovers 17-10 at New Orleans in the opener, and if they are going to do it in their third straight road game to start the year it's not likely to be via offensive explosion. WR Darren Cash, their best weapon by far, has 7 catches for 73 yards so far. They've got a couple of top-quality blockers on what is overall a very respectable line, but G Daniel Sheppard is out with an MCL injury and his replacement is likely to struggle. DE Leroy Mallo has 2.5 sacks already, and DT Ezra Harper is pretty stout in the run game to lead a pretty good line. LB Justin Harkness has 12 tackles through two games and is the best of a quality linebacking corps. CB Tevin Shaw is the best of two good ones, one of the better cover guys in the league. Safeties are a little weak but this is definitely a stout defense overall. Points will be at a premium. Tampa Bay figures to do well in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and should be able to cover our receivers with little difficulty. Unless Nunn manages to continue his hot start against all odds, we are really going to need Davis to make some tough yards in this one. After a hilariously bad 3-and-out ends with an Abel Kirchoff sack on Tampa's first possession, Davis returns a short punt 24 yards to the Bucs 24, where we start with a great chance to take the lead. A few plays later, despite a holding penalty on Briggs, Davis hits paydirt on third-and-goal from the 1 with veteran C James making a key block. Detroit 7, Tampa Bay 0, 11:04 1Q We lose the field-position battle for a while, starting consecutive drives inside our own 10. Then Nunn gets a couple first downs with third-down scrambles as they are crushing our traditional run game. He goes deep for Winzenfried, but Bucs LB Justin Harkness makes the interception and after a big return Tampa is in business starting at our 35. They go nowhere and are forced to punt, preserving our lead. Detroit 7, Tampa Bay 0, 12:59 2Q Risky gamble on our next possession, as we go for it on 4th-and-1 at midfield. Didn't work out so great for us a couple weeks ago at Chicago. Davis runs behind Briggs and just barely gets it. It pays off here with a 26-yard pass from Nunn to Ernie Snodgrass, and we're now in full control. Detroit 14, Tampa Bay 0, 8:15 2Q Working on a short field, we go 44 yards for another score. Larry Winzenfried gets the 22-yard tally on a screen. Nunn is doing just fine against the Tampa defense, facing very little pressure although their coverage does seem to be better than the last two opponents. Detroit 21, Tampa Bay 0, 4:49 2Q Tampa finally gets on the board with a quick drive as Kletch hits for some big pass plays, including a 33-yarder to Darren Cash. Barton on a 4-yard screen out of the backfield for the score. Detroit 21, Tampa Bay 7, 3:22 2Q We drive again, and Nunn is picked off trying to force one in to Winzenfried against double coverage. LB Tevin Anthony makes the play. Tampa comes back the other way, and Pritchett makes our fourth sack of the day ... only to watch Darryl Ellis boot a 53-yard field goal anyway three seconds before the half. Detroit 21, Tampa Bay 10 Neither team has been effective running the ball(49 yards combined between the teams) but we are giving Nunn time to throw while Kletch doesn't have the same for Tampa Bay. That's the biggest difference right now. Good drive to start the third quarter had a ridiculous finish. We stall inside the 10, but a Tampa penalty gives us a new series. Then offensive holding on Boult returns the favor, only to have the Bucs flagged again giving us our third first-and-goal of the same drive. Harkness is everywhere for the Bucs and we misfire on third from the 4 ... but they are called for pass interference. 4th first and goal, from the 1. Banks gets the carry and scores. Detroit 28, Tampa Bay 10, 9:45 3Q. It's not every day you see three goal-line stands succeed and a touchdown still result on the same possession. Tampa Bay comes right back, drives, stalls ... and Kletch hits Jessie Flood for a 19-yard score on third-and-11. We're not out of the woods yet. A quick toss gets them a 2-point conversion. Detroit 28, Tampa Bay 18, 3:05 3Q Davis fumbles at midfield, and Delaney recovers for the Bucs. They get a 38-yard field goal attempt out of it, and Ellis makes it easily. Detroit 28, Tampa Bay 21, 14:25 4Q. This is getting a little too interesting, and we're making Kletch look far better than he is. On third-and-2 from our 41, a gutsy/stupid call gets Gayle on a reverse ... and he completely fools the Tampa defense, getting 57 yards all the way to the 2! Three plays later, Davis gets his second 1-yard TD of the day, and we're back in control. Detroit 35, Tampa Bay 21, 10:48 As they are trying to make something happen, Kletch tosses out a flare pass to Bailey, and Lincoln Adams steps in front of it. Nothing but green grass in front of him, a pick-six for 24 yards and that'll be the nail in the coffin. Detroit 42, Tampa Bay 21, 4:53 4Q We're not done giving up points though. They march down the field quickly behind backup QB Thurman Davis, who connects with Cleland, one of their tight ends, for a touchdown. Detroit 42, Tampa Bay 28, 3:06 4Q Still not done. Darren Cash gets free for a 44-yard gash after we punt, and some good coverage combined with a sack by Covington stop them ... until we're called for offsides on 4th down. 4th and 13, and Cash just gets to the marker. Cleeland again for the score from two yards out. We're still going to win, but we don't deserve it at this point. Detroit 42, Tampa Bay 35, 0:30 4Q Ricky Van Buren recovers the onside kick for Tampa. 22 seconds left. Cash for 12, out of bounds at the 38 with 14 seconds left. Screen to Bailey, Walley makes the stop after just a yard, and it's finally over. Final Score: Detroit 42, Tampa Bay 35 Did everything but lose that one. 42-35 in what I thought would be a low-scoring game; it's the highest-scoring one in the NFL this year so far. Injury Report: RB Brett Reese will return. Brent Harr isn't totally healthy yet but can play. Broken toe for CB Amari Harding and he'll probably sit. Bailey, Favre, and Small are still out. Other Games: The point spread was less than a touchdown in every game this week, so there was a lot of drama anticipated. Arizona won 33-14 in Carolina, turnovers mostly doing the damage there. Same story in New Jersey where they dominated the winless Bengals 31-7. Seattle looked like their strong start was in trouble as they hosted the Cowboys and trailed 17-7 after a scoreless third. They rallied at the end though, an 8-yarder from Bryce Song to Justics Anderson giving them the game-winner with 2:25 to go. Good game between two teams that won their first pair. Denver wins a wild one in Tennessee, 34-26, on a Miles Swift TD run late in the 4th. That's the Broncos' first win of the season. Philadelphia dominated visiting Green Bay 22-3 in another matchup of 2-0 teams. Baltimore's running game kept them perfect, 23-10 over the Jags. In Kansas City, the lead changed hands four times in the final four minutes before Miami escaped with a 32-25 win. Ray Poston to Rico Murray with 1:06 left was the deciding score, and the Dolphins remain unbeaten. In a battle of winless teams, Devante Clemmons tossed both of his TD passes in the 4th to lead Washington back against Minnesota, 27-20. The Redskins trailed 13-0 early in the third quarter. Houston finished strong to beat Oakland 27-22, keeping the Texas perfect as well on the year. San Francisco's also in the group, but it required the craziest 4th quarter of the season, a total of 40 points scored in the final frame for a 39-36 road win against Atlanta. They led 36-20 with less than three to go, but after a pair of Harris Asomugha TD throws, Amir Fletcher was required to nail a 54-yarder as time expired for the win. Cleveland is probably the strangest unbeaten team. Their offense continues to do nothing. They were outgained in Buffalo by 120 yards, yet won 27-13. The Bills got 10 points from 4 visits to the red zone. Division Standings Detroit is now in a three-way tie with Chicago and Green Bay at 2-1, with winless Minnesota already in a hole.

12-30-2016, 09:56 PM	#16
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Note: Upped injuries to 200%, as I'm informed that's more realistic. Week 4: Los Angeles(2-1) @ Detroit(2-1) Line: Los Angeles by 3 Preview: QB Doug Coffey(725 yards, 5 TD, INT) is on the downside of his career, but is still above-average. He's thrown for than 27k yards, with 175 TDs and 72 INTs. 67-59 with 17 comeback wins for him. Rookie RB Mickey Alcott is underwhelming at less than three yards a carry this year. The Rams have multiple inadequate runners, a couple of them hurt. Wideouts Jamie Lynch(14-192-1) and Efrain Moore(12-166-1) are the offense's most dangerous weapons. This offense succeeds mostly because it gets great blocking. Malcolm Rivers is 25 and easily the best center in the NFL. T Hunter Summerlin is very good as well, and there are no real weak spots when they are healthy; a couple are not right now so the picture isn't quite as intimidating. LA plays a 4-3, relying on ends Ike Jordan(2.5 sacks) and Melvin Matthews. They're not as good inside. Nick Prescott(15 tackles, sack) is a solid leader of the linebackers, and Arnold Aniston is a fine corner with three picks in as many games already this year. Both defense are expected to struggle here. Seems I say it just about every week, but we'll probably need a bigger game from Davis. It'd be really cool if he'd show up. Three-and-out for both teams. Davis got nine yards with a couple broken tackles, then was shut down for no gain two plays in a row. We've gotta be able to do better than that. Our next drive, Winzenfried turns nothing into a 37-yard gain on a flare pass, and on 4th-and-4 from the Rams 31 we go for it ... Davis with the reception for 11 and the drive keeps going. A 2-yd pass from Nunn to Snodgrass eventually nets the score ... except Davis is called for pass interference! A 3-yd toss to Karl Gayle eventually results anyway. Nunn is 7 of 8 on the drive. Detroit 7, Los Angeles 0, 2:16 1Q The Rams get moving for the first time, or rather we get them moving with a pair of first downs gifted by penalty. Huge play at the goal line, with Lincoln Adams making a touchdown-saving tackle on TE Calvin Henson. Harvey Reynolds puts in the 18-yard kick to get them on the board. Detroit 7, Los Angeles 3, 11:51 2Q A long pass from Nunn to Roosevelt Delery sets up Catanzaro for a 43-yard FG, but he misses it badly. Detroit 7, Los Angeles 3, 3:05 2Q Low-scoring half with lots of penalties; six on us. Our trends continue as neither team can run the ball(6 carries, 16 yds for Davis). Raul Nunn is 14-16 for 152 and the game's only TD. Our short passing game continues to work better than it has any right to. Meanwhile the Rams have only 92 yards of offense. After a few more three-and-outs, our defense has it's worst possession of the year. Lax coverage leads to a couple big pass plays, then multiple missed tackles allow Mickey Alcott to ramble 24 yards to put Los Angeles in front. Los Angeles 10, Detroit 7, 7:52 3Q A comedy of errors ensues in a defensive struggle on both sides. A few more penalties, receivers dropping passes that would have gone for big gains, etc. At the end of the third, a big third-down completion to Delery sets us up with first and goal ... but Nunn tries to force one in to Winzenfried for the umpteenth time today on third down and fails. Chandler Catanzaro converts from 24 yards to even it up. Los Angeles 10, Detroit 10, 13:32 4Q Efrain Moore had only one catch through three quarters, but he gets a couple of sizable gains to get the Rams moving. Then, as we've forced them into third-and-long just outside of field-goal range, Roman Hartl is called for unnecessary roughness. That's our 8th penalty of the game, and it would not be the last on this drive. A screen pass to FB Bart Salo puts the Rams back in front. Los Angeles 17, Detroit 10, 9:32 4Q They stop us right away ... but are called for defensive holding. Nobody wants to win this game, I swear it. Our 10th penalty ensures we will go nowhere though. Next possession, Davis gets a solid return to start us out near midfield. After a first down, Snodgrass drops a pass, then Chapman with a false start. 4th and 7 from their 40, and Nunn can't complete it to Snodgrass under pressure. Los Angeles 17, Detroit 10, 2:30 4Q A couple of penalties allow us to stop them right away. 84 yards to go, with 2:07, no timeouts. Ernie Snodgrass gets free and hangs onto the ball this time, 35 yards to midfield. Three incompletions and then Chapman is forced out three yards shy of the sticks. That'll do it. Final Score: Los Angeles 17, Detroit 10 We're 2-2 after our first home loss of the year. Passing: Raul Nunn(29-44, 297, TD) Rushing: Joseph Davis(16-35) Receiving: Larry Winzenfried(9-90), Joseph Davis(5-42), Karl Gayle(5-38, TD), Roosevelt Delery(3-70) Defense: Lincoln Adams(6), Eugene Walley(5), Cornelius Pritchett(5). Alexis Covington and Charles Watt had one sack each. No turnovers either way. 11 penalties for 103 yards; Los Angeles had 7 for 55. They figured us out in the second half. Nunn was just 15-28, and the running game never got going. At 2-2, we're tied with Green Bay and a game back of Chicago. Other Games: Arizona has their most impressive showing of the year, dominating 36-6 at Green Bay. At 3-1, they're back in the hunt after a no-show to start the year. Atlanta's defense stood tall, and the Falcons eventually rallied from a 16-6 deficit at the half to hand Philadelphia their first loss, 30-19. Buffalo remains winless, going the final 55+ without an offensive point in a 20-10 loss @ Houston. The calls for Tribble are getting louder, but honestly it'd be a poor move. Quarterback isn't the problem. Dallas won one they shouldn't have, 34-27 in overtime @ Carolina. A short field goal tied it up in the final minute, and an Isaac Barrow TD run after a fruitless overtime with 11 seconds left gives the Cowboys the win. Baltimore narrowly stays unbeaten in a game they should have won more easily than 20-17 against KC. Miami loses their first game in a visit to New England; the Patriots find the end zone five times in their first six possessions en route to a 37-24 victory. Nicholas Starks had a decidedly bad day for the New Jersey Jets, throwing a quartet of picks in a 22-6 loss at Jacksonville. There was some drama in Cincy, where Alvin Shea threw two fourth-quarter TD passes to Craig Roeglen, including the game-winner from 29 yards out in the final minute, to give the Bengals their first win. Oakland is the victim, 24-19. Chicago's J.T. Meehan throws for 341 and 3 scores to help the Bears hand visiting San Francisco their first loss in convincing fashion, 35-16. Perhaps the stunner of the day was in Indianapolis, where the winless Colts trailed 27-14 after three against the undefeated Houston Texans ... and rallied to win, 31-27! Indy turned it over four times, but backup QB Randall Creighton hit Richard Liewinski for the go-ahead score midway through the final quarter, while Houston managed no more than 14 yards on any of it's last four possessions. Baltimore, Cleveland, and Seattle remain unscathed; everyone else has lost at least once. San Diego!!, Buffalo, New York, and Minnesota are still looking for their first victory of the year. Morale Report: We're up to five players unhappy now G Mackenzie Schwartz TE Ernie Snodgrass WR Larry Winzenfried C Ricardo Whetstone CB Jay Berkowich Snodgrass is the only one I really care about. He leads the team with 32 targets, and is second with 18 receptions(Gayle has 19). Chapman being listed as the starting tight end appears to be his beef. I'd like to have both of them, but if I have to lose one, Chapman is younger and has more upside. Both have multiple years left on their contracts, so they're here regardless for the time being -- not something I need to worry about right away. Injury Report: This list definitely got longer. Fortunately we have a bye week coming up. TE Brent Harr -- Ready to go now. WR Roosevelt Delery(Bruised Ribcage) -- Q(2) WR Karl Gayle(Strained Rotator Cuff) -- P(2) CB Ronnie Copeland(Sprained Ankle) -- Q(2) LB Jameson Favre(Strained Calf) -- P(2) DT Abel Kirchhoff(Broken Toe) -- Q(3) CB Amari Harding(Broken Toe) -- Q(3) WR Christian Bailey(Broken Clavicle) -- D(3) ** LB Bruce Small(Broken Fibula) -- O(5) We should look a lot healthier in a week's time, particularly with the receivers which is where the biggest problems are right now; our top three wideouts are all banged up.

01-01-2017, 10:39 PM	#17
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Week 5: BYE Insert bad joke here about how we will probably still find a way to lose. Other Games: Arizona visited Chicago in a matchup of two teams at 3-1 and looking to get a leg up early on in the NFC. A pair of Cardinals fumbles and red-zone struggles allowed the Bears to win 38-20 with both teams amassing nearly 400 yards throught the air. Four more TD passes for J.T. Meehan. Baltimore won another even game, this one 23-13 at Oakland, to stay perfect. The Ravens' record is a lot more impressive than their on-field display, but a win is a win. The Giants get their first victory in an error-filled 21-17 win against equally inept Carolina. Cincinatti visited Pittsburgh, and pulled their second rabbit out of a hat in as many weeks. Alvin Shea hit Ernest Brantley to even the game up at 27-all with 12 seconds left, and the Bengals won it with overtime field goal. Dallas gained just 247 yards at Tampa Bay, but their opportunistic defense was crucial in a 23-9 road win nonetheless. Les Fedo threw a pair of early interceptions for Cleveland, and despite a late rally they lose at home to Denver, 24-17. Jacksonville rushed for over 200 yards, 141 by Troy Cottle, in a convincing 29-6 win over Miami. New Orleans and Philadelphia played to a 7-7 tie over three quarters, then erupted in the final frame. A hail-mary from Rufus Santana is answered by Donte Palacios, and the Saints win this one, 21-17. New Jersey bounces back by allowing just 193 total yards to Houston in an impressive 26-7 road win. Seattle was nearly knocked off by, of all teams, winless Minnesota. A 9-yard pass from Bryce Stitt to Justics Anderson gave the Seahawks a 31-27 win. Stitt only had four incompletions all day, but the Seattle defense definitely didn't show up. Washington visited Atlanta in the last game here, and it was the biggest defensive struggle of the season. 392 yards of combined offense. Washington never made it to the red zone once, while the Falcons overcome a pair of turnovers for a 12-6 victory. Morale Report: no changes at might be expected in an off week. Injury Report: WR Roosevelt Delery(Bruised Ribs) -- P(1) WR Karl Gayle(Strained Rotator Cuff) -- P(1) CB Ronnie Copeland(Sprained Ankle) -- P(1) LB Jameson Favre(Strained Calf) -- P(1) DT Abel Kirchhoff(Broken Toe) -- P(2) CB Amari Harding(Broken Toe) -- P(2) WR Christian Bailey(Broken Clavicle) -- Q(2) LB Bruce Small(Broken Fibula) -- O(4) Small's been out all year, and Bailey will get another week to heal but all the other key guys will be playing. We're at Green Bay in a key game; second place in the North is at stake, and we lead them by a half-game.

01-03-2017, 06:39 PM	#18
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Week 6: Detroit(2-2) @ Green Bay(2-3) Line: Detroit by 7 Preview: Green Bay has a solid, veteran quarterback in Percy Lynn(5 TD, 5 INT, 1220 yds this year; 32k yards career, 89-46 with 1 title). He doesn't throw the deep ball well but is good on anything shorter. Lamar Meyer(335 yards, 4.7 ypc, 2 TDs), a third-year back in his first year as a starter, has been reasonably productive. Not particularly versatile but he has great speed and power, a tough combination. The receiving corps is quite underwhelming, and Ezekiel Conway(16-193) is the only one who is healthy right now. G Cooper Lane leads a trio of standout linemen for their offense, but C Cole Rudy is out right now, and the third wheel is dealing with a bruised sternum and limited. Still a quality offensive line, but not nearly what it would be if they were healthy. The lack of weapons has translated into the second-worst scoring offense in the league at just 15 points a game. On defense, the Packers play a 3-4, with the linemen solid but not better across the board. The linebackers are the strength here. Stanley Cortez has 28 tackles on the year, 27 and a sack for Chandler Harding. Three of the four are pretty good, making this a strong unit. S Damien Huntley, the only standout in the secondary, has a stress fracture in his foot and is not available. The corners in particularly are a weak point here. So far the defense has been a little below-average this year for Green Bay, much like Detroit's. Clearly the oddsmakers like us. We're definitely healthier than our hosts, and figure to win the battle up front on both sides of the ball despite being on the road. The key here is for Raul Nunn and the rest of the offense to bounce back and put some more points on the board after struggling against LA. Somebody forgot to tell our defense to show up. Green Bay marches straight down the field against anemic coverage by our secondary, then Lane flattens TJ Atkins as Xavier Turner follows a veritable highway up the middle for a 14-yard score. Green Bay 7, Detroit 0, 9:40 1Q Didn't do any better on their next drive. A short toss to TE Clarence Branch for another score, and Percy Lynn is 9 of 11 against us early. Green Bay 14, Detroit 0, 3:33 1Q An offsides penalty and a deep pass to Snodgrass finally get us going, only to watch Nunn whiff on three straight after we get first and goal from the 1. Apparently giving the ball to Davis at least once would have been too much to ask. 18-yd FG from Catanzaro gets us on the board, but we needed a touchdown. Green Bay 14, Detroit 3, 0:19 1Q Three and out for the Packers on their next possession, mostly self-inflicted, and we lose LB Lincoln Adams. Bad leg injury to one of Green Bay's players on the ensuing punt. Quite a dangerous couple of plays there. After a holding penalty on Arturo James, we eventually settle for another short kick from 24 yards out. Green Bay 14, Detroit 6, 8:56 2Q. Not getting in the end zone is almost certainly going to come back to bite us. Consistent pressure gets us another stop ... but Alexis Covington, our top pass-rusher and defensive star, has to leave the game. If he's out long we're in trouble. As we are on the move again, Nunn fires to Larry Winzenfried, but Packers LB Peter Greer steps in front of the pass, returning it 67 yards for a back-breaking score. We're in big trouble now. Green Bay 21, Detroit 6, 2:07 2Q. Then Roosevelt Delery is injured on the ensuing kickoff. A stunning bomb to Winzenfried, then a 9-yd strike to Nick Chapman on the next play get us back in business. Green Bay 21, Detroit 13, 0:28 2Q At the half, Lynn has missed on 9 of his last 11 passes, but there were a number of drops in there. We've done fairly well after the bad start, but the interception and our failure to convert in the red zone twice have kept the Packers in front. Still have a chance, but not much of a margin for error. Or we could simply roll over. That works too. A fumble on the second-half kickoff sets up a 7-yard burst by Lamar Meyer. Green Bay 28, Detroit 13, 11:41 3Q Next possession, we get a big third-down conversion on a screen to FB Norman Wright, but lose our top run-blocker in Collin Briggs. Davis then fumbles ... but recovers it. Eventually Nunn finds Chapman for another score, this one from 22 yards out. Green Bay 28, Detroit 20, 8:03 3Q. This is turning into a real shootout, with Nunn already over 300 yards passing. After a Green Bay drop gets us a stop, Nunn is sacked ... fumbles ... and DT Todd Anderton returns it to our 25. Two plays later, a 15-yard score from Ezekiel Conway as we elect not to even try to stop them apparently. Green Bay 35, Detroit 20, 1:36 3Q. The turnover festival is killing us; over a quarter to go and the Pack has already doubled their season scoring average. Joseph Davis gets his best game of the year on a single play, breaking multiple tackles on a pitch play that goes for 62 yards! Two plays later, a 3-yd toss to Reese, and we're within a score again. Green Bay 35, Detroit 27, 0:16 3Q Our defense once again puts up virtually no resistance, at least until Green Bay's called for holding on the goal line. Rico Campos makes a touchdown-saving tackle on Branch on third down, and the Packers settle for a field goal for the first time today. Green Bay 38, Detroit 27, 10:24 4Q CB Ronnie Copeland is called for an illegal block on the return, wiping out a nice return by Harlan. Sigh. On 4th-and-2 from the Green Bay 33, after moving 60 yards, Nunn decides this is the time to go for Gayle who is double-covered in the end zone. They tip it away. Stupid, stupid, stupid. A false start penalty helps us get a stop, but then Davis fumbles the ensuing punt. Green Bay falls on it inside our 20. That'll be the nail in the coffin. Final Score: Green Bay 41, Detroit 34 This debacle was a great illustration of the time-honored maxim that if you turn it over, it doesn't matter what else you do. We lose that battle 4-0, rendering moot the fact that we set NFL highs for the year in total offense(605 yds) and passing(470 yds). The defense was bad, but we still gave this game away, pure and simple. Passing: Raul Nunn(28-42, 488, 4 TD, INT) Rushing: Joseph Davis(10-90) Receiving: Nick Chapman(8-133, 3 TD); Karl Gayle(6-81); Joseph Davis(5-89); Larry Winzenfried(4-81) Defense: Charles Watt(6 tkl). Alexis Covington had our only sack before leaving the game in the first half. A couple hurries by Joey Hennessee. Davis has his best game by far, with 179 yards in total. We've been waiting for this to happen, but we wasted it. Other Games: In a battle of the NFC's elite, the Rams defense got another feather in their cap. They slow down the high-powered Chicago offense in a 30-17 win. Cincinatti just keeps doing it; another Alvin Shea TD pass, this one with just two seconds remaining, and they win at Kansas City 20-17. Jacksonville picks off Colts' QB Randall Creighton four times, but their anemic offense gets just 163 yards and they still lose 13-6. Oakland wins 8-6 at Cleveland, the lowest-scoring game so far this season. A third-quarter safety sack by Renaldo Fisher provided the margin. I don't know what got into Carolina, but they crush the Eagles 46-3 for just their second win of the year. Baltimore keeps on keeping on. Outgained by winless San Diego, they move to 6-0 nonetheless, 21-13. Seattle is knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten, 22-16 in a hard-fought game by San Francisco. After a brilliant showing last week, Bryce Stitt is just 11 of 27 against the 49ers. Atlanta scores both of their touchdowns in the final five minutes, the second one a long punt return by Rodolfo Bazzell, and they stun Tampa Bay 17-14. A weird one in Dallas -- a pair of Cary Giles fumble returns for TDs less than two minutes apart put Washington in control in the third quarter. The Cowboys rally to win it though, 25-24 on an Earnest Emerson field goal with a minute remaining. Buffalo finally gets their first victory, holding off Houston 19-14. It hasn't quieted the fans' demand, thus far unanswered, to get Tribble on the field. Baltimore is the only remaining unbeaten team, and I expect that'll end fairly soon given how unimpressive they've been. San Diego is shockingly still one of the winless teams, along with Minnesota. Morale Report: A few guys got more playing time this week and are happy again, including Snodgrass. LB Harris Boult is the latest to join the annoyed list. He's our defensive captain and about as good as our weakest current starters, Watt and Favre. Hopefully that situation works itself out. Injury Report: WR Karl Gayle, CB Ronnie Copeland, OT Tanner Farr, LB Jameson Favre are all good to go. That's the good news. DT Abel Kirchhoff(Broken Toe) -- P(1) CB Amari Harding(Broken Toe) -- P(1) SE Christian Bailey(Broken Clavicle) -- P(1) LB Lincoln Adams(Pulled Groin) -- Q(2) LB Bruce Small(Broken Fibula) -- O(3) WR Roosevelt Delery(Strained Foot Ligament) -- O(4) DE Alexis Covington(Separated Shoulder) -- O(4) OG Collin Briggs(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- O(7) Covington is the big loss. He's still our best defensive player by far, and had four sacks in a little over four games. Rookie Willie Irvin will get more of a run as the next man up. He's solid, but he's no Covington. Opposite Hennessee, the two first-year ends really need to step it up. That didn't happen against Green Bay. The injury to Adams means that two out of our three(at best) quality linebackers are out of commission; only Pritchett remains. That'll be a patchwork group, and our front seven looks like it's barely hanging on by a thread here. Offensively, it'll be good to get Bailey back out there this week. We'll need him alongside Gayle, with Delery now out. With our one good run-blocker now out most of the year, even more pressure will fall on the arm of Nunn. Third-year guard Nickolas Bardon will have to step up now.

01-04-2017, 06:24 PM	#19
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Week 7: Detroit(2-3) @ San Francisco(4-1) Line: San Francisco by 7 Preview: This is the start of brutal five-game stretch in which we'll be significant underdogs every week. In this case, we face the 49ers in a matchup of two of the best offenses and worst defenses in the league so far. QB Lewis Reado(7 TDs, 1 INT) hasn't been as prolific as Nunn has so far, but he doesn't make mistakes and is very good on the deep ball. The running duties have been alternated some between two quality backs, with Dave Yates, a better receiver than runner, currently favored. The receivers are of similar serviceable quality to ours; Maurice Ethridge(26 receptions) and TE Norm McWilliams(19, 2 TDs) are the best of the group. Up front, C Butch Palmer leads a solid group but he's the only standout. No super offensive weapons, but Reado's a good QB and there are no big holes. Meanwhile, P Cody Poole is one of the best. A 3-4 on defense, and the best of a fairly unimpressive group of linemen, DE Richie Olivares, is out with a knee injury. Lucas Jordon(29 tkls, 1.5 sacks) is the only guy that jumps out among the linebackers, and he's not that good. 4th-year CB Don Carr is one of the best cover guys in the league(11 INTs, 1 this year), but other than him the defense looks solid, but nobody jumps out. They're better than the # of points the team has given up would indicate -- average against the run, a little worse against the pass but not terrible. Should be able to score points here, but obviously we can't turn it over like last week, and the defense will be under pressure in this game. After a quick 3-and-out for us, they repeatedly gash our defense and Lewis Reado scrambles 14 yards for the first score of the game. San Francisco 7, Detroit 0, 10:43 1Q Next possession, Nunn makes his first completion on his fourth pass of the day. Unfortunately it's caught by the 49ers; Cedric Kohn returns it to our 5. An easy TD run on the next play by Shawn Judge, and we're facing an uphill battle again. San Francisco 14, Detroit 0, 9:59 1Q Nunn is perfect on our next drive, hitting Larry Winzenfried for a 7-yard strike on his fourth completion. San Francisco 14, Detroit 7, 5:16 1Q On the next play from scrimmage, Reado's pass is tipped, and Eugene Walley snags a rare interception for us at the 40. We get a field goal try that just barely makes it by Catanzaro out of it. San Francisco 14, Detroit 10, 1:53 1Q They get just close enough to try a 50-yarder by Amir Fletcher, but it's just short and we're still down four early in the second. Joseph Davis shows his moves in the open field, making the 49ers defense look impotent on a 35-yard screen pass. Detroit 17, San Francisco 14, 12:44 2Q. 17 unanswered points now, and Nunn is 8 of 10 since the pick. Davis takes it in on the ground from three yards out the next time we get the ball. It's an avalanche right now and I'm loving it. Detroit 24, San Francisco 14, 7:25 2Q Another tipped Reado pass, and this time our top corner, Roman Hartl is there. He returns it 20 yards across midfield. After a drop by Winzenfried, we go for it on 4th down ... and convert with Nick Chapman doing the honors. A couple of plays later, Brett Reese catches a short TD pass, Nunn's third of the half already. Detroit 31, San Francisco 14, 3:33 2Q. The 49ers march down the field and look set to punch it in. Reado flips a pass to Norm McWilliams in the flat ... and Walley steps in front of it for his second interception of the day, rambling 97 yards for a touchdown! This is truly getting ridiculous at this point. Detroit 38, San Francisco 14, 1:52 2Q It got worse. The two-minute drill got San Fran in field goal range ... and then LB Jameson Favre got in on the pick-six action. Detroit 45, San Francisco 14, 0:16 2Q Reado had one interception in the first five games, and has four more here in one half. Nice of him to have a meltdown in our favor. We've actually been outgained slightly in total yardage, yet this game is already over. The 49ers pull Reado at halftime. That was as good an indication as any that they were giving up. It was a boring, 'let's just get this over with' second half. Final Score: Detroit 52, San Francisco 22 The first half was one of the highest-scoring games of the year, and this is the first time anyone's topped 50. 35 second-quarter points is definitely a high. Passing: Raul Nunn(16-24, 216, 3 TDs, INT) Rushing: Joseph Davis(19-80, 2 TDs) Receiving: Larry Winzenfrield(4-43, TD); Joseph Davis(4-46, TD) Defense: Jameson Favre(9 tkls); Cornelius Pritchett(7 tkls); Amari Harding(7 tkls). Backup Shawn Mahoney had our only sack, with interceptions by Eugene Walley(2), Amari Harding, and Jameson Favre. Don't look now, but Davis just had his second productive game in a row. I'm basically looking at this game and the Green Bay game as a wash. We lost one we should have won, then won one that was handed to us on a silver platter. At 3-3, we're tied with the Packers one game behind Chicago. Other Games: Seattle hosts Arizona in their second meeting, and survives a late comeback for to sweep the season 34-27. They could well meet again in the playoffs. Drake Burroughs had 103 yards on just 15 carries as Carolina drubs Atlanta. The Panthers are on a roll right now. Baltimore crashes out as the last unbeaten to fall, a shockingly bad 30-3 demolition by Denver. The Ravens had just 118 yards of offense. That's ... hard to do. New York beats Dallas 24-20 in a wild fourth quarter that started with a 6-3 score. A late TD run by Morris Richardson gave them the upset. Oakland will not have a good week. They led 28-6 after three at home against Kansas City. The score wsas the same midway through the fourth, but they still managed to find a way to lose. An onside kick by the Chiefs in the final minute let them score twice at the end, and then they kicked a field goal in overtime for a 31-28 final. Philadelphia feels a little better, but not much after letting a 10-point lead in the final quarter evaporate. Tampa Bay comes back to win there, 23-20 in OT. Minnesota led for almost the entire game against one of the top teams in the league, Los Angeles. The Vikings are still winless after a keeper by Doug Coffey accounts for the Rams only touchdown in a 10-7 final. San Diego is still winless after the Chargers give up two scores in the 4th at home to fall to Cleveland, 23-18. Apparently blowing leads is the trend, because it happened to New England as well. A 15-point lead goes away for them with Houston taking a 35-34 decision. Myles Ramsey to Edwin Heath with under a minute left was the winner. Morale Report: The list of unhappy players is shrinking and has nobody on it we care about. C Ricardo Whetstone is the only consistent name. Injury Report: DT Abel Kirchhoff, WR Christian Bailey are now fully fit. LB Lincoln Adams(Pulled Groin) -- P(1) CB Amari Harding(Broken Toe) -- P(1) LB Bruce Small(Broken Fibula) -- O(2) WR Roosevelt Delery(Strained Foot Ligament) -- O(3) DE Alexis Covington(Separated Shoulder) -- O(4) G Collin Briggs(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- O(6) ** CB Nickolas Berggren(Turf Toe) -- D(??) Berggren was the only casualty as we got healthier this week. He's our #2 corner so Harding will step in there. Adams will be back in the lineup, and if we get Small back soon the linebackers will be looking good.

01-05-2017, 07:21 PM	#20
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Week 8: Seattle(5-1) @ Detroit(3-3) Line: Seattle by 7 Preview: The Seahawks are as good as it gets in the passing game; #1 on offense, #4 on defense. Against the run, the defense is above-average but the offense is abysmal. It's their one weakness. If we had a top-notch pass defense, that might mean something: but we're 23rd so far. They might be one-dimensional, but our odds of slowing them down don't look good. Unless Nunn and co. can continue recent success and keep up, it doesn't look good. Bryce Stitt isn't a guy who jumps out in most aspects as a quarterback, but he's very accurate and skilled at hitting his receivers in stride. 1700 yards, 14 TD, 3 INT this year. RB Junior Conley is one of those guys who should be better than his numbers show this year, though he's mostly a third-down back by skillset. 235 yards, 2.34 avg. is pretty darned abysmal. Willie Crujin(23-465-4 TDs) is by far the best receiver. The offensive line isn't that impressive. C Simon Griffin and G Darnell Conley are good, but everyone else has weaknesses. Overall it's a group that you look at and wonder how they are one of the top offenses in the league. Crujin is one of the best wideouts around, but really it looks like Stitt, like Nunn for us, is just having a charmed year. This is a meeting of the two highest-rated passers in the NFL this year ... and nobody would have predicted these two. Seattle plays a 4-3 on defense, with DT Lenny Lane(2.5 sacks) the best of the guys up front. They would probably be better suited for the 3-4, as they've got a pair of fine inside backers in Nathan Tillman and Emmett Jacobs. Alejandro Whitmore on strong side is also quite solid. Aside from safety Gerald Taylor, who has bruised ribs and isn't 100%, the secondary leaves a lot to be desired. The roster isn't as good as the record, but they've still got a little more talent than we do. With their last four games being close, one wonders if Seattle is just a team that got off to a good start. A flash in the pan, so to speak. Guess it's time we found out. DT Lane is hurt on the second play from scrimmage, and a screen to Winzenfried picks up 11 on third-and-10. That only works once, and we have to punt it away. The defenses have the clear upper hand early. A scoreless first quarter, and losing our best blocker, OT Tanner Farr, doesn't help with our side of that equation. We get on the board first with a 10-yard pass from Raul Nunn to Norman Wright. Nick Chapman made a big third-down catch to get us in position. Detroit 7, Seattle 0, 11:39 2Q Seattle strikes back quickly in just four plays, a 3-yd plunge by Gavin Gearhardt getting them the score. Detroit 7, Seattle 7, 9:04 2Q All of a sudden nobody can stop anything. Brett Reese goes almost untouched on a 25-yard run. Detroit 14, Seattle 7, 6:52 2Q The first turnover goes to us, just Stitt's fourth pick of the year. Ronnie Copeland makes it at midfield. However, a reverse fails horribly and we lose yards on the possession. Still 14-7 at the half. We're doing a little better job on 3rd down situations, and being up a touchdown at home is a nice place to be. We miss some chances to stop them right away in the third quarter, and pay for it. Willie Grujin gets free on a crossing route and outruns our defense for a 39-yard score to tie it. Detroit 14, Seattle 14, 12:34 3Q A field position battle ensued at that point, both teams knowing any mistake could give the other an edge. The first one was made by Seattle, offensive holding in the end zone by G Levan Lucas. It's a safety! Detroit 16, Seattle 14, 1:30 3Q We seize the momentum quickly, a 1-yd toss to Nunn's favorite target, Chapman. Detroit 23, Seattle 14, 14:11 4Q A couple of possessions later, a big sack by Willie Irvin inside the Seahawks 10 and Stitt fumbles ... but they get it back. Great play by the rookie regardless. A couple of plays later, he tries to force on in to Grujin and LB Cornelius Pritchett makes the interception. Good chance for us to put this away. Joseph Davis finds paydirt from 16 yards out, and that should do it. Detroit 30, Seattle 14, 9:19 4Q We try to run out the clock, but they can't stop us. Raul Nunn has a shocking 34-yard keeper against a defense keying on Davis. Detroit 37, Seattle 14, 4:45 4Q Final Score: Detroit 40, Seattle 14 Much closer game than that indicates. Up until the safety late in the third, this was a close, well-played game. Then the wheels sort of came off for the Seahawks. Passing: Raul Nunn(21-31, 224, 2 TDs) Rushing: Joseph Davis(21-151, TD); Brett Reese(6-35, TD) Receiving: Nick Chapman(6-82, TD); Larry Winzenfried(6-69) Defense: Eugene Walley(6 tkls); a sack each for Willie Irvin and Lincoln Adams, and another shared by Abel Kirchhoff and Sam Marian. Cornelius Pritchett and Ronnie Copeland had an interception each. Almost everyone on defense did something. The defense as a whole and Davis in his best game on the ground with five carries of 10+ were clearly the keys here. In the second half, we wore them down while their running game became less effective. Now at 4-3, we've won two in a row that I thought we'd lose, and are a game ahead of Green Bay, one back of Chicago. Still right in the thick of the North race. Other Games: Minnesota almost won for the second straight week, but dropped to 0-7 after a 34-31 loss at Chicago. It took a 32-yard run by Moe Riddols, part of a huge 181-yard day for him, to put the Bears in front for good. A fine game between two good teams in Dallas, where the visiting Saints came out on top 21-20. Rufus Santana to Leslie Cole was the winning tally with three minutes left. A pair of pick-6s helped New York to a 31-10 victory at Philadelphia despite just 222 yards of offense. Neal Norton hauled in a bomb for a late 76-yard score, allowing Pittsburgh a stunning win at Oakland. 24-20 was the final there. Trailing 16-7 after three quarters at Green Bay, San Francisco got a trio of field goals, then won 23-16 on the first possession of overtime. An 11-yard pass from Lewis Reado to Dave Yates got it done. Blake Deshell rushed for a league-high this season of 190 yards, helping Kansas City emphatically stop Cleveland's win streak by a 29-14 count. A 98-yard INT return by Oscar Everett was the key play for Houston. They finished strong to beat Tennessee, 23-9. Morale Report: Whetstone is downright angry and I officially don't care. Latest information I have is that there are three better backup centers available on the free-agent market. He can go wherever he pleases in the offseason. Injury Report LB Lincoln Adams, CB Amari Harding are back to full health. CB Roman Hartl(Sprained Knee) -- P(1) WR Jaylen Harlan(Knee Contusion) -- P(1) LB Bruce Small(Broken Fibula) -- P(1) WR Roosevelt Delery(Strained Foot Ligament) -- P(2) OT Tanner Farr(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- O(2) DE Alexis Covington(Separated Shoulder) -- O(3) G Colin Briggs(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- O(5) ** CB Nickolas Berggren(Turf Toe) -- D(??) Biggest concern now is definitely the offensive line. At least Farr won't be out long; he's as good as any player we have at any position. Small looks set to play his first game this year; we'll keep Delery out for at least another week as the rest of the receivers are healthy.

01-07-2017, 09:13 PM	#21
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Week 9: Chicago(5-2) @ Detroit(4-3) Line: Detroit by 1 Preview: A huge game here obviously. Win and we're tied for the division lead at the halfway point of the year. Lose and we're 2 games plus the tiebreaker behind. We lost 27-23 on the road in the first meeting. With Raul Nunn(#2 in passer rating) and J.T. Meehan(#3-rated) slinging the ball all over the field you can be sure there will be plenty of points. Joseph Davis is up to 9th in rushing yards now and on pace for 1000; Moe Riddols for the Bears is third and averaging over 6 per carry. Neither defense is good, but Chicago's at least been average against the run. Six of the seven linebackers, already a patchwork unit, are banged up for the Bears. We've won two in a row, but are 0-2 in the division. A must-win here if we're going to challenge Chicago this season. They got the ball first and tore through us like tissue paper. Only one third down the whole drive, on 3rd-and-goal from the 3. Pritchett hurried Meehan into his only errant pass of the drive, and the Bears settle for a 20-yd kick by Jorge Rice. That's a gift in my book. Chicago 3, Detroit 0, 7:44 1Q Raul Nunn's first pass, on our first play from scrimmage, is intercepted by Riddick Mozart. He takes it back 36 yards for a TD. So much for a good start here. Chicago 10, Detroit 0, 7:34 1Q Bailey shakes free for a long run after the catch; his 40-yarder sets up Chandler Catanzaro for a long field goal attempt, but it's just short. Another good drive by Chicago, but we stop them thanks to Willie Irvin's second sack in as many games. No change in the score through the end of the first quarter. A quarter in which we did not even try to get the ball to Davis once. Grrr. Riddols fumbles inside the Chicago 20 early in the second quarter, second Bears fumble today but for the second time they get it back. After Davis turns a short gain into more than 30 midway through the second quarter, we move into Chicago's half and Nunn throws another pick. Darren Robbins returns this one to midfield. After Riddols drops a third-down pace, they settle for a 33-yard FG from Rice. Chicago 13, Detroit 0, 5:27 2Q In the final minute, Nunn threw yet another interception at midfield trying to get some points on the board. A couple of underneath passes to Carter Ritter later, his first receptions of the game, and Rice boots a 51-yarder as time expires. Figures. 16-0 Bears at the half. 13 points off the three interceptions. They've run it 17 times, we've only run it twice. Not real hard to find the storyline here; outcoached and outexecuted. We deserve to lose, but there's still a half to play. Chandler Catanzaro's second 47-yard attempt of the day is just long enough to start the third, and we get on the board. That drive was a struggle, some fine plays but also a couple of sacks. Chicago 16, Detroit 3, 9:50 3Q On Chicago's second play of the half, Amari Harding makes a nice break on a pass and gets our first turnover of the game. A 44-yard pick-six, and we're back in this just like that. Chicago 16, Detroit 10, 8:34 3Q One of our best defensive series' of the year gets us a three and out, then a big gainer to Ernie Snodgrass gets the offense moving. Eventually we stall again, and Catanzaro converts from 32, inching us closer. Chicago 16, Detroit 13, 3:14 3Q A couple of lapses in coverage allow some big gains, and Chicago gets in scoring position again. Their tight end can't hang on to a third-down pass ... but Harding is called for holding. First and goal Bears. Two plays later, J.T. Meehan finds Ritter for the score. That could well have been a game-deciding sequence. Chicago 23, Detroit 13, 13:42 4Q A drop and a false start sabotage our next drive, so we pin them deep ... only to watch Bears punter Ruben DeJesus uncork a 65-yarder to reverse our efforts. Several first downs on the ground chew up most of the clock, and with it our hopes. However, Ellis Shumway blocks the eventual punt, giving us a chance to make something of this game at the Chicago 29 with just over three to play. We decide that now is the time to ram Joseph Davis down their throat. It eventually works for a 2-yard TD on his fourth straight carry ... but where was that the rest of the game? Chicago 23, Detroit 20, 1:03 4Q An onside kick fails. We stop them, but after the punt we've got about 50 yards to go in 20 seconds to have a chance at a tying kick. Nunn finds Jaylen Harlan in space over the middle ... 35 yards across midfield but he can't get out of bounds and that's that. Final Score: Chicago 23, Detroit 20 A second close defeat, but we deserved to lose this. They were smarter, and they executed better. Passing: Raul Nunn(26-41, 317, 0 TD, 3 INTs) Rushing: Joseph Davis(8-24, TD) Receiving: Christian Bailey(7-94); Jaylen Harlan(6-69); Nick Chapman(5-38) Defense: Charles Watt(9 tkls); Bruce Small(9 tkls); Eugene Walley(6 tkls). Amari Harding had the lone interception, and our only sack was courtesy of Willie Irvin. A couple hurries for Lowe, a couple knockdowns for Hennessee Harlan is the emergency receiver; seems Nunn can make use of anyone. He was the only 300-yard passer in the league this week, but it's the first-half interceptions that are going to be remembered. And three carries for Davis in the first three quarters combined are just inexcusable. Other Games: Alvin Shea does it again. In a tie game with Denver, he throws a 26-yard TD with three minutes left to give Cincinatti a 23-16 win. Meanwhile Philip Whalen made two 57-yard field goals for the Bengals. They are just crazy in the ways they find to win games. Seattle fell behind 20-0 in the first half against Green Bay, then rallied for a 24-23 win. Three TD passes by Stitt, and then a short field goal in the fourth to win it. Ernest Fleming was 12-31 with 4 picks for Buffalo as they lose 12-3 to Jacksonville. The calls for Tribble are getting louder ... Indianapolis led 20-7 over New England going into the 4th, then barely survives 23-20 in overtime. Anthony Kraut's 53-yd punt return gives Carolina yet another victory, 17-13 over the Saints. San Diego edged Oakland 16-10 in a battle of two of the worst teams this year; the Chargers get their first victory, leaving only the Minnesota Vikings winless as they were stomped by San Francisco. Philadelphia blanks Washington 23-0, the first shutout I remember seeing this season. The 1-8 Redskins are pretty pathetic right now. Morale Report: A couple of linebackers, Harris Boult and Jace Ogden, are a little unhappy with the new situation now that Small is back in the lineup. That'll probably work itself out though, unless we have unnatural good fortune with health. Injury Report: Several players are back to full strength. CB Roman Hartl, WR Larry Winzenfried, WR Jaylen Harlan, and LB Bruce Small. Winzenfried missed much of the Chicago game after a first-half injury, the others were already banged up. WR Roosevelt Delery(Strained Foot Ligament) -- P(1) OT Tanner Farr(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- P(1) DT Abel Kirchhoff(Sprained Knee) -- Q(2) LB Cornelius Pritchett(Hyperextended Knee) -- D(2) DE Alexis Covington(Separated Shoulder) -- Q(2) OG Collin Briggs(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- O(5) ** CB Nickolas Berggren(Turf Toe) -- D(??) The defensive front will be a little rough now with the oft-injured Kirchhoff and Pritchett needing to miss at least our next game. The rest of the team is pretty healthy though, with Briggs the only significant injury elsewhere.

01-07-2017, 09:14 PM	#22
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Playoff Picture & Odds It's Week 10, just over halfway throught the season. Here's how things look right now. AFC Standings 1. Baltimore(7-2, North, 98%) 2. Denver(5-3, West, 76%) 3. Jacksonville(5-3, South, 83%) 4. New England(4-4, East, 31%) 5. Cincinatti(5-3, 77%) 6. Houston(5-3, 28%) 7. Indianapolis(5-4, 40%) 8. Cleveland(4-4, 15%) 8. Kansas City(4-4, 48%) 8. Miami(4-4, 55%) 8. New Jersey(4-4, 28%) 12. Tennessee(4-5, 19%) 13. Pittsburgh(3-5, 2%) 14. Buffalo(2-6, 1%) 15. Oakland(2-7, negl.) 16. San Diego(1-7, negl.) Almost anyone could win the AFC at this point. Even Baltimore, despite a 6-0 start, has struggled. Nobody has been consistently impressive. Really looks like a second-rate conference in comparison right now, but that also could make the playoff race pretty exciting. I'm rooting for the Bengals here. QB Alvin Shea's 4th-quarter heroics are one of the top stories this season. Don't sleep on the Browns either; they lost their first three games but have been moving up ever since. The odds projections sure doesn't like them right now though. New England's chances look so bad largely because they are tied with Miami and New Jersey for the AFC East. That'll switch around multiple times I'd bet, but it doesn't look like a wild card is coming out of there. NFC Standings Percentage given is the standard one from the playoff probabilities. 1. Los Angeles(7-1, West, 98%) 2. Chicago(6-2, North, 96%) 3. Dallas(6-3, East, 86%) 4. New Orleans(5-3, South, 45%) 5. San Francisco(6-2, 70%) 6. Seattle(6-2, 49%) 7. Carolina(5-4, 47%) 8. Arizona(4-4, 19%) 8. Atlanta(4-4, 18%) 8. Detroit(4-4, 48%) 8. New York(4-4, 20%) 12. Philadelphia(4-5, 2%) 13. Green Bay(3-5, negl.) 13. Tampa Bay(3-5, 1%) 15. Washington(1-8, none) 16. Minnesota(0-8, none) The Vikings have the 'honor' of still being in the chase for our '08 mark of going a whole season winless. Average game for them so far is a 28-18 loss. Along with the Redskins, they are the only two teams that have been so bad it's essentially over for them already. Meanwhile Arizona, the preseason prohibitive championship favorite, is down to a 1-in-5 shot, last in the West, toughest division in the league. Despite our record, Detroit is one of four 'coin-flip' teams right now. Why? Well, we've played the toughest schedule of anyone so far, and it's not close. Two games against Minnesota, another against Buffalo, and none against teams with a winning record. 5 of 8 are on the road, but we've got a shot at making up some ground. If we do, we'll have the tiebreaker against either San Francisco or Seattle, having beaten both of them recently. Another factor in our corner is we haven't lost by more than a touchdown ... though in some cases that's just been late-game padding of the score. Bottom line is, the Lions definitely have a chance a getting to the post-season. We've got to be sharp every week though, because there won't be much margin for error. There aren't any games left we aren't capable of winning though.

01-07-2017, 11:20 PM	#23
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	And Detroit's real-life playoff record goes to 1-13. I can take solace in the fact that no matter how slowly and methodically I progress in this project, I'll win the Super Bowl far sooner than the real Lions will. Even if it takes decades.

01-16-2017, 01:44 PM	#24
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Week 10: Detroit(4-4) @ Arizona(4-4) Line: Arizona by 1 Preview: This is a must-win for the Cardinals, and nearly so for us. Both teams are on the outside of the playoff picture, and need a big finish. Arizona is last in the NFC West, by far the toughest division in the league. After being picked in the pre-season as the prohibitive favorite to win the title, they are having a rough year compared to those expectations. Everybody they have lost to though is current a playoff team(Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle twice). A home loss to the Rams, 20-13, was really damaging last week. They've dropped two straight and three of four. One of the problems has been the passing game. QB Barry Buchanan is nearly on the same pace as last year in terms of yards, but has just 8 TDs to 4 INTs(a blistering 33 and 3 a year ago). He's one of the best in the game though, particularly effective on third down and downfield patterns. Marquis Copley(555 yards, 4 TDs, 4.08 ypc) is the primary rusher and mostly an inside runner. WR Tim Hancock(37-394-2) and TE Liam McDonald(27-281) are the top receivers for the team. One major blow to the offense has been the loss of G J.C. McKenzie, but C Giovanni Barnes is one of the best and RT Taylor Small is quite good as well. Really though it's on Buchanan, who simply needs to step it up; he doesn't have great weapons, but enough that this offense should be putting up bigger numbers than it has with his abilities. Defensively they run a 4-3 in Arizona, with Eric Alford, the top lineman, out with a bad ACL injury. Darrell Stiles and Leroy Cope are a couple of pretty good inside tackles, but the ends are really weak right now. An MCL tear for one of the best linebackers in the league, Raymond Lindquist, ended his season in just the third game of the year. Led by Joe Hoover(53 tackles this year) in the middle, it's still a good group but only a shadow of what it was. CB Ezekiel Morris and SS J.R. McCarthy are among the best in the league in what is a fine secondary as well. So far this year Arizona has the best run defense, and the worst pass defense in the league. The latter simply doesn't make sense when you look at their personnel. They struggle to bring consistent pressure, but from a coverage point of view they should do quite well. Expect that we'll need Nunn to continue those struggles and put up quite a few points in order to win this one. No question Arizona has the better players in this matchup. Arizona looked good to start on the first drive of the game. Good pressure up the middle from Lowe, who had a sack, and Kirchoff eventually stalled them. Clayton McDaniel connects from 45 to open the scoring. Arizona 3, Detroit 0, 10:35 1Q On their next possession, Buchanan played a supporting role as they rammed Marquis Copley down our throats repeatedly and the defense could do nothing about it most of the time. He gets the first TD of the game from 4 yards out to finish off a long, 96-yard drive. Arizona 10, Detroit 0, 14:52 2Q Our best drive of the game so far follows, with the usual emphasis on short passes to various targets. It stalls in the red zone tough, and Chandler Catanzaro does the honors from 32 yards out. Arizona 10, Detroit 3, 9:40 2Q Once again our defense is helpless as they march down the field ... but then a fumble offers us a gift. LB Jace Ogden picks it up and returns it 82 yards to paydirt! It's a gift, but we'll definitely take it. Arizona 10, Detroit 10, 5:25 2Q The assault continues, this time on a 7-yard pass from Buchanan to Sergio Clayton out of the backfield. Arizona 17, Detroit 10, 2:11 2Q At the half, rushing yards are 149-14. That pretty much tells the story. Aside from the fumble return, we've been dominated here. Raul Nunn is 11 of 21 and has had his moments, but not the usual success. So far, Arizona looks every bit the part to us of best team in the league, records notwithstanding. Jaylen Harlan takes the kickoff to start the second half, and returns it 96 yards for the score! Incredibly, we are tied again despite how badly things have gone overall. Arizona 17, Detroit 17, 14:31 3Q Arizona's first three penalties of the game are all on their next possession. Our defense steps it up against the run as well. We get a stop, and all of a sudden it feels like we might be in this game ... A tough drive ends with Nunn finding Christian Bailey for a 7-yard score. Detroit 24, Arizona 17, 4:21 3Q With the running game, no longer working, Barry Buchanan makes a number of good completions to lead Arizona down the field. Then Copley gets in again on a draw from 6 yards out. Arizona 24, Detroit 24, 9:15 4Q. Time to see if we have another drive left in us. After a 3-and-out, it looked like we were in a losing field-position situation. Next possession, Nunn found Ernie Snodgrass on 3rd down from our own 5, second time Snodgrass has gotten us out of jail today. From there it was the Raul Nunn show, ripping off chunks of yardage to seemingly anyone in a Lions uniform. Gayle, Bailey, Winzenfried ... Joseph Davis from six yards away for the go-ahead score! Detroit 31, Arizona 24, 1:13 4Q Final Score: Detroit 31, Arizona 24 The Cardinals just ran out of time on their final drive. After the kickoff return tied it in the third quarter we were a completely different team. Outgained 453-293(187-41 rushing), we should have lost but didn't. Seems Arizona continues to be supremely talented underachievers. Passing: Raul Nunn(25-36, 271, 2 TDs) -- 14 of 15 in the second half! Rushing: Joseph Davis(7-9); Brett Reese(4-19) Receiving: Karl Gayle(5-56); Joseph Davis(5-46, TD); Ernie Snodgrass(4-59); Larry Winzenfried(4-39); Nick Chapman(4-42). That's spreading it around. Defense: Bruce Small(14!! tkls); Eugene Walley(11 tkls); Amari Harding(8 tlks); Lincoln Adams(6 tkls). Jace Ogden had the fumble return, Harold Lowe and Joey Hennessee had our two sacks. First one for Hennessee, and it came on the final drive costing Arizona a crucial timeout. Other Games: Seattle beat Chicago 19-13 in a hard-fought game between two teams that could well meet again in the playoffs. Two second-half TD passes by Bryce Stitt featured as the Seahawks rallied at home while stifling the Bears' attack. Dak Prescott completed 25 of 28 passes to help Dallas crush Philadelphia 35-16. The Eagles did not score in the second half. Kansas City held Denver to just 158 yards in a narrow 20-17 win; key game between playoff hopefuls there. Minnesota's futility continues as Green Bay throttles the Vikings 30-14. Two TD runs by Tito Spragan, one the winning score in the final quarter, allow New Orleans to escape Tampa Bay with a 19-13 win. New York led 10-7 after three quarters in Atlanta, thanks to an INT return by Frank Schwartz, but the Falcons get scores running and receiving in the final frame from Cooper Faircloth and a deceptively large 27-10 win. Cleveland's push hits a snag as they are manhandled 24-10 at home by Pittsburgh. The final game was a huge one as well, and a statement. The Los Angeles Rams crushed San Francisco 37-13 in a game that should have been much closer, staking their claim to the frontrunner spot in the NFC. Tampa fans are now calling for second-year player Thurman Davis to take over the QB duties for 35-year-old Nick Fletch, as the 3-6 Buccaneers are all but out of the playoff picture. Morale Report: Nothing new Injury Report: WR Roosevelt Delery and T Tanner Farr are now back to full health. DT Abel Kirchhoff(Sprained Knee) -- P(1) LB Cornelius Pritchett(Hyperextended Knee) -- P(1) DE Alexis Covington(Separated Shoulder) -- P(1) DE Willie Irvin(Knee Bursitis) -- P(1) OT Kent Williamson(Hyperextended Knee) -- O(3) LB Lincoln Adams(Knee Tendinitis) -- P(4) OG Collin Briggs(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- O(4) CB Nickolas Berggren(Turf Toe) -- D(??) We get Covington back which should really help the offensive line. Berggren, our #2 corner, is the only significant defensive injury now. With Williamson out now along with Briggs, we are now down two offensive linemen however. We will need Nunn and Co's heroics to continue.

01-16-2017, 02:10 PM	#25
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Week 11 Playoff Picture AFC 1. Baltimore(7-2, North, 97%) 2. Houston(6-3, South, 63%) 3. Kansas City(5-4, West, 68%) 4. New England(5-4, East, 63%) 5. Cincinatti(6-3, 83%) 6. Denver(5-4, 59%) 7. Jacksonville(5-4, 54%) 7. New Jersey(5-4, 33%) 9. Indianapolis(5-5, 21%) 9. Tennessee(5-5, 26%) 11. Cleveland(4-5, 5%) 11. Miami(4-5, 24%) 11. Pittsburgh(4-5, 4%) 14. Buffalo(2-7, negl.) 14. Oakland(2-7, negl.) 16. San Diego(1-8) There's been some separation this week now, with Jacksonville and Denver basically fighting for that last wild-card spot according to the latest projections. Key Games: Miami @ New Jersey is nearly an eliminator, but Houston @ Jacksonville is the big one here. Winner has control of the AFC South. NFC 1. Los Angeles(8-1, West, 99%) 2. Dallas(7-3, East, 97%) 3. Chicago(6-3, North, 89%) 4. New Orleans(6-3, South, 50%) 5. Seattle(7-2, 74%) 6. San Francisco(6-3, 51%) 7. Atlanta(5-4, 27%) 7. Carolina(5-4, 34%) 7. Detroit(5-4, 68%) 10. Arizona(4-5, 7%) 10. Green Bay(4-5, 1%) 10. New York(4-5, 4%) 13. Philadelphia(4-6, negl.) 14. Tampa Bay(3-6, negl.) 15. Washington(1-8) 16. Minnesota(0-9) The LA Rams are looking strong as Super Bowl favorites right now. As can be seen by the odds, the upset win over Arizona was huge for Detroit, who now has strong odds to crash the playoff party given our weak remaining schedule. Then flip a coin between New Orleans hanging onto the South or San Francisco for that last spot. It looks like the Cardinals are dead. You wouldn't have gotten much agreement on that earlier in the year. Incredible fall for them with four losses in their last five. Key Games This Week: Atlanta @ New Orleans; Seattle @ Los Angeles. If the Saints win, they will considerably strengthen their hold on the NFC South.

01-17-2017, 04:11 PM	#26
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Raul Nunn Profile Thought I'd do a comparison at this point of our better-than-expected quarterback. He's good at a lot of things, but is terrible at the two things we do a ton of: short passes and screens. Guys are constantly getting the ball with room to run on those, esp. WR screens. This year's production is only a little better than what he put up a couple years ago(before getting hurt, and then sitting behind Bridgewater for a year). Clearly not a mirage, but it's still surprising and it doesn't seem to be a 'fit' thing. Regardless, he seems to be vastly outperforming his ratings. Much as I'd like to take credit for it, the only thing I did really is hire an OC who also likes the Erhardt-Perkins philosophy. Then on the other side there's Joseph Davis, who averaged 19 carries for 84 yards, a 4.43 average. This year; 14-57, 4.04. He's been really up and down, but rarely gets many carries except when we are ahead in the second half.

01-18-2017, 04:51 PM	#27
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Week 11: Minnesota(0-9) @ Detroit(5-4) Line: Lions by 14 Preview: This just screams 'trap game'. The Vikings, the NFL's lone team without a win, come to visit while we are coming off a big road win and three more away games coming up afterwards in a vital stretch. Harvey Carr is in his fourth year, second as the Vikings QB. He's one of the few starters in the league who are weaker on paper than Nunn. Carr is getting better, and he's put up non-terrible numbers this year(2600 yards, 12 TDs, 11 INTs). Throws a lot of picks though. Accuracy and third-down situations are his biggest weaknesses. RB Shannon Kelley is a solid back despite averaging just over three yards a carry this year, and he's out with a strained back. He was originally drafted by us, then signed to a 4-year deal by Carolina when Davis emerged, only to be released after a single season(1132, 4.55 last year). I was worried he'd help Minnesota improve this season; turns out that didn't happen, to put it mildly. Top WR Bradley Helms has a strained hammy and has only played in two games(13-283-3!). Young TE Alejandro Burleson is the only significant remaining threat in the passing game(41-466). He's more a blocker than a receiver, though, and drops a lot of passes. The offensive line is young and decent at best, with no real standouts there. No big holes either though. Might be the best part of the team going forward. Overall, the offense hasn't been that bad; poor running the ball but a little above-average(12th) in the passing game. Too many turnovers though, and they've been asked to do too much. Defensively, it's a 3-4 and the worst front in the league. By far. DE Deron Aspell had 10.5 sacks in the past two years coming in; he's got none this year and has been banged up. The other two linemen they are starting are rookies, and Glenn Gilchrist, the other end, was a heck of a find in the 7th round. He looks like he'll be a quality starter, though he's not there yet. The linebackers are basically a catastrophe. The best of them are just above replacement-level. The secondary is the strength of the defense, by default if nothing else. CB Arnold Lowery is in his prime and has 8 career INTs, though none this season. There's nothing he doesn't do well though. SS Jesse Hamilton is on concussion protocol but is normally just as good -- he's younger at just 25 but has a couple picks already this year. These are the best two players on the roster, hands down. As a group, Minnesota is 27th against the run and 31st against the pass; dead last in scoring defense at over 28 ppg allowed. In theory we ought to be able to score at will here. Defense needs to put pressure on the young Carr, and as long as we show up, it should be a day for some big numbers and a fairly easy win. Can't afford to overlook the Vikings or assume it's over already though. Minnesota started out by taking a page out of Arizona's playbook and just punching us in the mouth. We saw a lot of RB Ernie Stinemetz, who continually gashed the defense and eventually scored from three yards out. Not the start I was looking for. Minnesota 7, Detroit 0, 10:45 1Q After we stall, the Vikings didn't have as much success on the ground ... so Carr took to the air. Eventually we stopped them, but Morris Farr booted a 37-yarder to extend their lead. Minnesota 10, Detroit 0, 3:38 1Q We continue to sputter, but get a break as Stinemetz coughs up the ball, Amari Harding recovering it for us at midfield. A holding penalty followed by a sack, a consistent pattern for us so far, stall that chance as well. Finally got our first good drive put together late in the half. We seem to have figured out that giving the ball to Davis is a good idea(45 yards this quarter after not getting a single carry in the first), and Christian Bailey gets loose several times. The last one goes for a 10-yard score. Minnesota 10, Detroit 7, 2:08 2Q Harvey Carr runs the two-minute drill expertly, avoiding pressure to make several important completions. Joey Hennessee gets to him eventually, but another FG by Farr as the first half expires still adds to their total. Minnesota leads 13-7 at the half, with both teams running the ball nearly at will but neither line able to protect the quarterback. We've shot ourselves in the foot with four penalties at key moments, while the Vikings have been nearly mistake-free. This is proving to be anything but easy; we're in a much bigger fight than we bargained for. A downright incompetent start to the second half. Jaylen Harlan decides to return the kickoff from 5 yards deep ... and only gets out to 11. Then we go 3-and-out. Not the way to put points on the board. Nunn gets us moving again after both defenses have their say a couple times. Karl Gayle, whose first-half contribution was to drop a screen pass, hauls in a 19-yarder for his second reception of the drive. Catanzaro's XP puts us ahead for the first time today. Detroit 14, Minnesota 13, 4:32 3Q We manage to start off the fourth quarter the right way. The defense is continuing to hold Carr & Co. at bay, and Raul Nunn scores on a 5-yard keeper. Detroit 21, Minnesota 13, 11:58 4Q Carr's pass for his favorite target Gus Martin is intercepted by LB Jameson Favre, returning it to the Vikings' 10 yard line. That really should take care of this. They cover everything well and we actually lose yardage, leading to a 31-yard kick by Chandler Catanzaro. Detroit 24, Minnesota 13, 9:50 4Q With Minnesota on the move again, Harvey Carr made another mistake and Eugene Walley gets the interception at our 20. We are stopped on three plays running, but they fumble the punt and TE Brent Harr makes the recovery at the Vikings' 34. Wheels coming off for them now. Catanzaro converts from 44 yards out, which should end the scoring. Detroit 27, Minnesota 13, 2:07 4Q Final Score: Detroit 27, Minnesota 13 Definitely a tale of two halves here, just like against Arizona. Vikings' quarterback Harvey Carr was 16-20 in the first half, 13-25 with a pair of interceptions in the second. The defense also did a lot better against the run. Would have been nice to show up for the whole game, but the bottom line is we got the job done. Passing: Raul Nunn(19-26, 166, 2 TDs) Rushing: Joseph Davis(16-90); Brett Reese(6-22) Receiving: Christian Bailey(6-52, TD); Nick Chapman(4-35) Defense: Eugene Walley(9 tkls); Cornelius Pritchett(8 tkls); Bruce Small(8 tkls). One sack for Joey Hennessee, with Alexis Covington and Abel Kirchhoff sharing another. Three hurries and a pair of knockdowns for Covington as well. He sure makes a difference. Walley had four of his tackles on that miserable first drive, adding the late interception and a pass defensed to be our key player on that side of the ball today. Other Games: San Francisco beat Arizona 23-16, with Dave Yates's 21-yard run with 12 minutes left the game-winner. That pretty much ends any hope of the Cardinals making the post-season, yet another close game they've let go. Atlanta led big over New Orleans, then held on for a 27-20 victory. The Falcons defense was good almost all game, and Todd Artis rushed for 107 yards. Good game in Pittsburgh where the Steelers had the upper hand on the AFC-leading Baltimore Ravens most of the day. Two big defensive scores in this one, but Baltimore got the last laugh as Earl Reinsch returned a fumble 71 yards to give the Ravens a 27-22 win. Stat of the day here: Pittsburgh rushed for -9 yards. Yuck. Luther Murdock booted a 50-yard kick with four seconds left to allow New England to escape upset-minded Buffalo, 34-31. Cody Dole and OJ Farmer both broke the century mark in rushing for Cincinatti, who has now won seven straight after losing their first three. They crush the Browns today, 33-3. Denver outgained Oakland 386-134 ... and lost. The Raiders had one good drive midway through the fourth quarter, and Tommy Gerth's 88-yard INT return in the first half did the rest. 14-12 Oakland, a massive blow to the Broncos' playoff aspirations. In New Jersey, it was all field goals and just 400 yards of combined offense as Miami outlasts the Jets 9-6. Seattle hung around with the Rams for a while, but Los Angeles exploded late in a 32-6 win. Their defense is quite impressive this year. Houston's showed up as well, giving up just 111 yards, a season-low for the league, in a 23-0 defeat of Jacksonville. That showing included five sacks and three interceptions. Injury Report: DT Abel Kirchhoff, LB Cornelius Pritchett, DE Alexis Covington, CB Nickolas Berggren, and DE Willie Irvin are all good to go now. WR Roosevelt Delery(Abdominal Strain) -- D(2) OT Kent Williamson(Hyperextended Knee) -- Q(2) LB Lincoln Adams(Knee Tendinitis) -- P(3) ** OG Collin Briggs(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- O(4) Delery just cannot stay healthy, but overall this is the best we've looked in a long time. The offensive line continues to be the lone point of real concern.

01-18-2017, 04:53 PM	#28
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Week 12 Playoff Picture AFC 1. Baltimore(8-2, North, 99%) 2. Houston(7-3, South, 91%) 3. Kansas City(6-4, West, 83%) 4. New England(6-4, East, 65%) 5. Cincinatti(7-3, 95%) 6. Jacksonville(5-5, 24%) 7. Denver(5-5, 30%) 7. Indianapolis(5-5, 20%) 7. Miami(5-5, 41%) 7. New Jersey(5-5, 21%) 7. Tennessee(5-5, 29%) 12. Cleveland(4-6, 1%) 12. Pittsburgh(4-6, 1%) 14. Oakland(3-7, negl.) 15. Buffalo(2-8, negl.) 16. San Diego(1-9) The Jaguars are 'first among equals' as the current winners of the six-way tie for the last wild-card spot, but that's a very tenuous spot esp. with six games left to play. As can be seen, the projections don't show anybody with a particularly good shot at sliding in there, but the Dolphins are the most likely at this point. At this stage, all signs point to a playoff South showdown, as the red-hot Bengals and the front-running Ravens appear to be the class of the conference. Houston's defense could well have something to say about it also. NFC 1. Los Angeles(9-1, West, 100%) 2. Chicago(7-3, North, 92%) 3. Dallas(7-3, East, 95%) 4. Atlanta(6-4, South, 61%) 5. San Francisco(7-3, 73%) 6. Seattle(7-3, 58%) 7. Detroit(6-4, 71%) 7. New Orleans(6-4, 24%) 9. Carolina(5-5, 19%) 9. New York(5-5, 8%) 11. Arizona(4-6, 1%) 11. Green Bay(4-6, negl.) 11. Philadelphia(4-6, negl.) 11. Tampa Bay(4-6, 1%) 15. Washington(1-9) 16. Minnesota(0-10) The Vikings are the first team to be officially eliminated, while Atlanta now controls their destiny in the South after their win over the Saints. The Rams are now in a dominant position in terms of claiming home-field advantage. They haven't actually clinched a play-off spot, but have about a 1 in 300 chance of not making it at this stage. The shift in fortunes of the Falcons and Saints is striking. Right now there's seven teams with a good shot of making it. One, Seattle the favorite right now, will be left out. The Lions' odds continue to improve ... but we've got to keep winning. The tiebreaker doesn't help us as long as we're a game behind the pace. Key Games This Week Jacksonville @ Dallas -- Lots of inter-conference matchups, but this is one the Jaguars need a lot more than the Cowboys do. New Jersey @ Chicago -- Another example of the same thing; the Jets can't afford losses right now. Philadelphia @ Tennessee -- Chance for the Titans to get back in the hunt. San Francisco @ Denver -- This is the kind of win the Broncos need to gain back what they lost against the Raiders.

01-29-2017, 02:46 PM	#29
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Week 12: Detroit(6-4) @ Buffalo(2-8) Line: Lions by 12 Preview: Once again we're heavily favored; hopefully this time we'll start out ready to play. On the road, we'd better do so. Buffalo is in a way the flip side of Minnesota. Whereas the Vikings can't stop anybody, the Bills have had trouble putting points on the board. They're 27th in scoring offense, mostly because of the passing game(25th, 17th rushing). Ernest Fleming is still behind center, much to the chagrin on the fans who want Tribble out there. Fleming has the skills to be a successful QB, but he's had a hellacious year(10 TDs, 21 INTs). Maybe the fans have a point. RB Glenn Rhodes(554 yards, 2 TDs, 4.62 ypc) has been pretty effective. They have a few quality receivers who are a little better than anyone we have. Damian Gipp just recently returned from an injury suffered last year, and Drew Fisk has been out since early in the season with a hip problem that he may never recover from. Young Blaine Dixon(24) may be the best of the group, but he never met a pass he couldn't drop. At most spots, the offensive line is abysmal. That's mostly because OT Kennedy Hoffman has been suspended for the year. The only other top-quality blocker is C Lamar Walters, who has missed the whole year so far with turf toe complications dating back to a pre-season injury. Defensively, Buffalo plays a 4-3. None of the linemen jumps out, though DT Kenny Glenn(2.5 sacks) is a competent veteran. LB Patrick Washington is capable of being one of the best blitzers in the league; he had 7 sacks last year, but only a pair this season. Aside from him though, the front leaves a lot to be desired. The secondary has three solid starters out of four, though there are no real standouts. Overall though, one wonders how this defense has been as effective as it has been(12th against the pass, 8th against the run). Despite their record, Buffalo's coaching staff has really done an impressive job on this side of the ball. Definitely looks like our best chance to put pressure on Fleming and coax him into throwing a few more balls our way. If Buffalo's defense holds up, they could definitely make this a tight one at home. First play from scrimmage, and Davis fumbles. Miles Shea is on the bottom of the pile for Buffalo. Exactly what you don't do on the road. Defense holds, and Brendon Fogg kicks one through from 35. Buffalo 3, Detroit 0, 13:29 1Q. Could have been worse. Next play, Nick Chapman is wide open over the middle, and rambles 67 yards for our longest pass play of the year, inside the Buffalo 10! We follow it up with a false start, then a drop by Bailey. Long story boring, we settle for a FG as well. Buffalo 3, Detroit 3, 11:04 1Q Another big-gainer on our next drive goes to Christian Bailey for 45 yards, and a few plays later Nunn hits Larry Winzenfried from 7 yards out. The Buffalo secondary sure hasn't shown up yet. Detroit 10, Buffalo 3, 7:39 1Q Chapman breaks free again when we get the ball next, eventually stopped after a 51-yard gain. That gives him 118 yards ... and Buffalo 22 as a team ... late in the first quarter. Eeek. Play-action to Bailey for 16 on the next play nets another score, and we're cruising. Detroit 17, Buffalo 3, 2:25 1Q Moving again, we get a little greedy early in the second. Raul Nunn looks deep again for Bailey, but CB Shaquille Huffman gets the interception. Essentially a punt by another name. Towards the end of the half, another deep one and Christian Bailey strikes again, 42 yards on this bomb behind everyone. Catanzaro misses the extra point. Detroit 23, Buffalo 3, 2:50 2Q Glenn Rhodes fumbles on their next possession, and Harold Lowe recovers it. Raul Nunn hits Chapman from 15 yards away for the score three plays later. This game is just ridiculous at this point. Detroit 30, Buffalo 3, 1:07 2Q. Halftime, and this is already pretty-much over. Unlike every other game we've played this year, receivers are consistently getting open downfield. The screens and short passes haven't been seen nearly as much. Nunn is 18-23 for 4 TDs and the interception ... for 373 yards. Buffalo has 86 total. Final Score: Detroit 44, Buffalo 17 The main highlight of the second half was an 85-yard TD return by Eugene Walley, as Bills fans got their wish with rookie Darnell Tribble taking the field. He did throw a couple TD passes in garbage-time. Passing: Raul Nunn(29-35, 440, 5 TDs, INT). Sean Newman came on in the fourth, but didn't throw a single pass. Rushing: Joseph Davis(8-25); Brett Reese(8-13) Receiving: Nick Chapman(6-182, TD); Ernie Snodgrass(5-53); Christian Bailey(5-116, 2 TDs); Larry Winzenfried(4-39, 2 TDs) Defense: Charles Watt(6 tkls). Watt was everywhere today -- he had 2 of our 3 sacks(Covington with the other). Walley's interception was our only one of the day. Other Games: Atlanta needed a comeback on the road to beat Pittsburgh 19-13. Landon Farrell to Van Sherman was the winning connection with a little over three to play. Anthony Kraut's early 91-yard INT return set the tone for Carolina in a 17-10 upset of Baltimore. Barry Buchanan showed how good he can be in one of the finest games so far this year; 28-33, 369 yards, 4 TDs, no interceptions. Arizona destroyed a solid Kansas City team 44-19. Too bad for the Cardinals that we haven't seen that more often. Minnesota finally wins a game ... and in grand fashion. 5 TD passes for Harvey Carr as they stomp Miami 42-13! Houston's defense continues to dominate, allowing just 106 yards in a 36-10 demolition of New York. Seattle was stunningly inept, losing 40-10 @ Oakland and it would have been worse without a punt return accounting for their only touchdown. That's two wins in a row for the Raiders after losing 7 of 8. Denver led 3-0 after three against visiting San Francisco, but gave up 10 in the final quarter to lose a tough one. Broncos' QB Connor Emtman accounted for 207 of their 218 total yards. Cincinatti's winning streak went up in smoke, exposed by Tampa Bay 45-30, and it wasn't that close. Sloppy, but exciting game. Austin Clemons' TD run in the 4th was the only time Indianapolis found the end zone; they escape Washington's grasp in an ugly 13-10 final. Morale Report: DE Willie Irvin is a little unhappy. Thought this might become a problem eventually. He's playing well, but with him, Covington, and Hennessee all healthy, not all of them can start. Hopefully it doesn't come a major issue. Injury Report: WR Roosevelt Delery(Abdominal Strain) -- P(1) OT Kent Williamson(Hyperextended Knee) -- P(1) LB Lincoln Adams(Knee Tendinitis) -- P(2) WR Jaylen Harlan(Sprained Knee) -- Q(3) OG Collin Briggs(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- P(3) LB Harris Boult(Pulled Calf Muscle) -- O(4) ** DT Abel Kirchhoff(Sprained Knee) -- Q(4) We get healthier on the offensive line, and Kirchhoff is the only starter among the newly injured. He'll be missed some -- Lowe is about as good, but he can't play every down and it really drops off after that.

01-29-2017, 02:48 PM	#30
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Week 13 Playoff Picture AFC 1. Baltimore(8-3, North, 99%) 2. Houston(8-3, South, 98%) 3. Kansas City(6-5, West, 76%) 4. New England(6-5, East, 73%) 5. Cincinatti(7-4, 89%) 6. Indianapolis(6-5, 48%) 7. Denver(5-6, 28%) 7. Jacksonville(5-6, 24%) 7. Miami(5-6. 14%) 7. New Jersey(5-6, 32%) 7. Tennessee(5-6, 13%) 12. Cleveland(4-7, 1%) 12. Oakland(4-7, 6%) 12. Pittsburgh(4-7, 2%) 15. Buffalo(2-9) 16. San Diego(1-10) The Houston Texans and their impregnable defense are looking stronger every week lately. Parity reigns to the degree that everyone is still in contention, even the 1-win Chargers technically. The Colts get an ugly, narrow win to take the last spot for the moment -- I expect it'll change hands at least once or twice before year's end. NFC 1. Los Angeles(10-1, West, 100%) 2. Chicago(8-3, North, 96%) 3. Dallas(8-3, East, 99%) 4. Atlanta(7-4, South, 68%) 5. San Francisco(8-3, 92%) 6. Seattle(7-4, 20%) 7. Detroit(7-4, 80%) 7. New Orleans(7-4, 24%) 9. Carolina(6-5, 17%) 10. Arizona(5-6, negl.) 10. Green Bay(5-6, negl.) 10. New York(5-6, 1%) 10. Philadelphia(5-6, 1%) 10. Tampa Bay(5-6, 2%) 15. Minnesota(1-10) 16. Washington(1-10) I was definitely miffed and suprised that we are still out right now, having beaten Seattle head-to-head. Looks like some 3-way tiebreaker stuff going on though with New Orleans. The Seahawks are 6-3 against the conference; we're 5-4 and so are the Saints. We've gained the game we were behind though. Not in yet, but right on the bubble. Seattle's chances of holding onto their perch though appear to be ... less than good. The projections say it's all but ours -- I wish I was that confident, but we have won three in a row so we're definitely surging. Meanwhile, the Redskins are the second team to have their hopes officially dashed. Key Games This Week: Baltimore @ New England -- Both teams are likely to make the playoffs, but home field in the AFC is definitely up for grabs. The Ravens are only 2-3 after the fast start, and things could get very interesting for them if they lose this one. Chicago @ Dallas -- Fairly similar stakes in the NFC. Winner of this has the inside track on the #2 seed and a bye. Could easily be a preview of a divisonal-round matchup. Kansas City @ Indianapolis -- If the Colts want to prove they are playoff caliber, this is a great chance to do so. The Chiefs would almost have to try at this point not to win the weak West ... but Oakland is only two back, even at 4-7. Not the time for them to be complacent. Seattle @ New Orleans -- The Lions win no matter who comes out on top here, but it'd be better for us if the Seahawks win. The loser misses a big chance and is behind in the playoff race.

01-30-2017, 04:53 PM	#31
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Note: this is first week simmed after the new patches. Moved from 8.0a to 8.0c here. Week 13: Detroit(7-4) @ New York(5-6)** Line: Lions by 9 Preview: I'm a bit surprised we are favored by this much. The Giants are probably as good a team as we are going to face the rest of the year. If we can win this one, I think we definitely will have the inside track on the playoff spot. By the numbers, they can't pass(31st) and can't stop the run(30th), but they are second in the league in turnover differential. In other words, we've got to play a clean game here on the road. If we do, we should be able to outscore them. There's a very interesting quarterback situation in New York. Lawrence Rollo has emerged as the starter this year, adding 9 of his 16 career starts this season. The previous couple of years, he was the backup to Kent Bronson, now 30. Bronson has been the offensive captain for six years and is not happy about this ... but he's back in the lineup now as Rollo is injured. There's a big drama going on between Bronson and WR Caden Beane as well ... so a whole lot of negativity floating about. Regardless Bronson had 21 TDs with 8 INT last year, 3 and 4 this year, so he's found it hard to step in with the same success. Morris Richardson(762 yds, 5 TDs) is a pretty good running back, not a whole lot of dancing about for him but he does almost everything well. A nasty broken rip injury has sidelined TE Cornell Givens, really slowing down their attack. Rookie WR Larry Bays(30-336-3) is getting more and more attention, with Andy Flemons(58-654-2) the most productive receiver on the team. The two of them are a quality pair, but it hasn't been enough. C John Witkop is a real star anchoring the line, one of the league's top linemen, but the loss of veteran guard Lamar Frame has hurt and left a real hole. G Mercury Hutchins is quality but the rest of the line is quite bad. A 3-4 on defense, and here the problem is they might have the worst starting tackle in football. DE Mason Zimmerman is good, only 2 sacks but he's better in the run game. The linebackers are a freaking medical ward right now. It's so bad that rookie defensive end Brent Shepard is starting back there out of position. Sedrick Consulo is the only quality experience they had to begin with; he had 39 tackles and 4 sacks before suffering a bout of turf toe. They really suck at the linebacker spot right now, and overall the front up the middle is horrible. Hopefully Page will give them a whole bunch of Davis straight ahead. The secondary is pretty good but is struggling without CB Byron Clark, who has a back issue. SS Keith Mendola is solid but having a bit of a down year. The injury issues explain why we're favored pretty strongly here. Hopes are high for our win streak to keep on going. We take the early lead despite ourselves. Good defensive stop to start off, big punt return by Davis ... who would not touch the ball on our opening drive. 7 straight passes to start it, got lucky on a couple third-and-longs. Second one went to Winzenfried for 31 as the big play. Karl Gayle scores from 6 on a screen. Detroit 7, New York 0, 10:00 1Q They storm right back as Andy Flemons shakes free of our defense after Witkop created some holes for them to run. 36 yards from Bronson to Flemons for the tying score. New York 7, Detroit 7, 5:03 1Q On our next possession, we figure out that giving the ball to Joseph Davis might be a good idea. The bigs up front do a good job on that banged-up New York front, and Davis carries 6 times for 35 yards, including a scoring plunge from 2 yards out. Detroit 14, New York 7, 13:24 2Q Frank Schwarz has his second big kickoff return of the day already for the Giants, out to nearly midfield. Caden Beane is the second player to catch a Kent Bronson touchdown pass today, this one covering 7 yards. New York 14, Detroit 14, 8:52 2Q Chapman bails us out on a third-and-long, then a couple of big runs by Davis before Karl Gayle catches a short 1-yard toss from Nunn. This has all the makings of a shootout right now. Detroit 21, New York 14, 5:45 2Q They're on the move again when LB Lincoln Adams intercepts a tipped pass just on our side of midfield. This time we can't get all the way to the end zone, but Chandler Catanzaro gets an easy 34-yarder to finish off the first half. Detroit 24, New York 14 at the half. If we keep on top of the turnover battle we should have this one. Neither defense has shown up on third down; we're 4 of 4 and they are almost as good at 4 of 5. 78 yards for Davis is pretty darned good considering he didn't get the ball for the first 10-12 minutes. On our way to another long touchdown drive, Raul Nunn is intercepted looking for Chapman. CB Braydon Pustell makes the play well into Giants territory. Big play on third-and-long, as we double-cover Flemons, who still manages to get a 29-yard gain on a screen. Unbelievable ... but NY is called for an ineligible man downfield. 34-yard net on that penalty, and we get a stop to keep them from gaining any momentum from the turnover. Better than that actually, as Richardson fumbles on the next play and Charles Watt recovers it. Covington is down though and looks like he's done for the day. Gayle gets his second score of the day from 11 yards out a few plays later. It's been a wild start to the second half, but the Lions are in command now. Detroit 31, New York 14, 8:45 3Q Another stop, then Joseph Davis fumbles as we move into New York territory. Pedro Campbell recovers and returns it to midfield. Second time this quarter we've handed it over. This time we pay for it. Bronson hits TE Ron Horn from 20 yards away, and the Giants have some life again. Detroit 31, New York 21, 4:15 3Q After punts are exchanged both ways, the Giants put together a long drive, probably their best of the game. It gets chaotic at the end, with penalties both ways in the red zone. Another tight end gets the score, 5 yards to Ross Compton. All of a sudden we aren't feeling so comfortable anymore. Detroit 31, New York 28, 7:49 4Q After punts both ways, we're pinned down at our own 7 with three minutes left. After losing yardage on two of the next three plays, we're forced to punt. One time we need a first down or two, and we can't get it. New York takes over at their 40, no timeouts left but still 2:21 showing. All they need is about 25 yards to try a tying field goal. Winfred Snyder gets 19 of them ... and Covington is flagged for a late hit - unsportsmanlike conduct. Ball on our 26 now. Pretty much the worst possible time for him to pull that kind of stunt. Holding on Charles Watt on the next play gets them more yardage. The goal here, guys, is not to do our best to lose this. Just in case you were wondering. New York moves inside the 10 ... and Morris Peterson fumbles!! Bruce Small makes the hit, rookie Joey Hennessee the recovery, and we escape! Un-freaking-believable. Final Score: Detroit 31, New York 28 Virtually tried to lose in classic Lions fashion, up 17 in the third but then the offense stopped moving and the defense crumbled, even after top Giants receiver Flemons was knocked out of the game. Shades of Ernest Byner there as they were going in for the win. Gotta feel sorry for Morris Peterson at least a little. Big, big win for Detroit here. Passing: Raul Nunn(28-43, 208, 3 TDs, INT) A lot of short passes today, and they covered better than most teams have. Rushing: Joseph Davis(18-126, TD) Receiving: Christian Bailey(7-35), Nick Chapman(6-61), Karl Gayle(5-32, 3 TDs). That might be the least yards I've ever seen with three scores! Defense: Bruce Small(8 tkls, 2 FF, PD) Runaway defensive MVP here. We didn't get any pressure on Bronson to speak of after the first drive. Honorable mention for the INT by Lincoln Adams as well. Other Games: Big game on the ground for Kaleb Goodspead. The Falcons' ballcarrier helped Atlanta survive a late Minnesota rally, 27-19. Baltimore went into New England looking to re-establish themselves as the AFC's best, and left humbled 27-13. Vincent Broomfield's 102 yards rushing were a key advantadge for the Patriots. Zane Ogden's FG with 22 seconds left finished an entertaining, but who-cares affair with Oakland beating Buffalo 26-24. It was apparently the week of the RBs, as Drake Burroughs ran over the Packers for 155 yards. Carolina rolls 31-3. J.T. Meehan is limited to just 78 yards passing, no touchdowns, and a pair of interceptions as Dallas crushes Chicago 41-6. Nobody saw that coming. Rodolfo Sanderson(17-37, 178, 4 INTs) had himself a miserable day for the Colts, who had their playoff chances severely dented in a 26-20 defeat against Kansas City. San Diego gets just their second win, leading 21-0 in Jacksonville at the end of the first quarter and holding on for the victory. In the main game of interest to us, a pair of Bryce Stitt TD passes had Seattle leading New Orleans from start to almost finish. The Saints rallied, with a short pass play tying the score with less than a minute and a half to go, and then Samuel Roberson's 40-yard kick gave New Orleans a 20-17 overtime win. The league-leading Rams struggled, but got a 16-14 win @ Tampa Bay on a late field goal. Turnovers bit the Bengals who lost their second in a row, 38-23 at home against Tennessee, despite outgaining the Titans. Gage McGee lit up San Francisco for 349 yards passing, as the week's most shocking result saw visiting Washington win 27-20 over the 49ers. Houston failed to take advantage of Baltimore's misfortune. Their defense played pretty well ... but you have to score. Cleveland gets a 13-0 success against the Texans, who did nothing on offense. Morale Report: Irvin's still not happy, and Harris Boult didn't like being deactivated despite being injured. Suck it up, buttercup. Injury Report: WR Roosevelt Delery, LT Kent Williamson are now 100% LB Lincoln Adams(Knee Tendinitis) -- P(1) LB Cornelius Pritchett(Sprained Knee) -- Q(2) DE Alexis Covington(Sprained Knee) -- Q(2) WR Jaylen Harlan(Sprained Knee) -- Q(2) LG Collin Briggs(Strained Elbow Tendon) -- P(2) DT Abel Kirchoff(Sprained Knee) -- Q(3) LB Harris Boult(Pulled Calf Muscle) -- O(3) FB Norman Wright(Strained Foot Ligament) -- O(4) Had a few injuries this week; apparently there's a bad case of the sprained knees going around. Defensive front will be a little iffy next week with three starters watching(Pritchett, Kirchhoff, Covington). On the other hand, at least Irvin will probably stop whining as much since he gets another start now.

01-30-2017, 06:12 PM	#33
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	Damn, looks like you're righting the ship.