2017 Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown, and 3yo Thoroughbred Races

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I suppose the public might make CE the race favorite, but I'd think you'd see some legit money coming in on LOOKING AT LEE and SENIOR INVESTMENT, following the standard logic that the closing-fast horse is bound to get there next time, with a longer course to pilot.

I hope that the public/"smart" money loves closers. Truth is, much like in many races, the horses that can stalk will win more of their fair share. The Belmont is no different, with 50+% winners in the last 30 years being of a stalker style. A fast last quarter time is great, but my money will not be on those types that will try to rally from near the back of the pack. This is especially true in bigger fields.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by weegeebored

I hope that the public/"smart" money loves closers. Truth is, much like in many races, the horses that can stalk will win more of their fair share. The Belmont is no different, with 50+% winners in the last 30 years being of a stalker style. A fast last quarter time is great, but my money will not be on those types that will try to rally from near the back of the pack. This is especially true in bigger fields.

Bigger fields, fresh horses, no target on their backs, plus that style is completely beneficial to Belmont and it's 1.5 mile course. It's a brutally long race for the horses that excelled at Churchill or Pimlico.

[QuikSand]

Sorry, I wasn't clear enough... by "standard logic" all I meant was some dumb money always goes this way in the Triple Crown (especially the Belmont, but also the Derby itself).

I think Taprwit is a serious play for the Belmont just on breeding, but I will definitely be giving a good look at the more forward-placed horses.

Last year, I was dead sure that Destin would win it on/near the front, bet accordingly, and was appalled he got nosed out by Creator. My friend smacked me when he reminded me that I hit the triple and earned a trip to the IRS window, but I was still irked that he let a rally horse catch him.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Sorry, I wasn't clear enough... by "standard logic" all I meant was some dumb money always goes this way in the Triple Crown (especially the Belmont, but also the Derby itself).

I think Taprwit is a serious play for the Belmont just on breeding, but I will definitely be giving a good look at the more forward-placed horses.

Last year, I was dead sure that Destin would win it on/near the front, bet accordingly, and was appalled he got nosed out by Creator. My friend smacked me when he reminded me that I hit the triple and earned a trip to the IRS window, but I was still irked that he let a rally horse catch him.

If I can get Irish War Cry @ 10-1 or higher, he will probably be my only play.

[murrayyyyy]

and Classic Empire gets scratched so IWC will now probably go off as the favorite pretty easily.

Not sure I even bet the race now. I guess I can root for Patch but I think he's the 12 and I don't want to watch him on the outside gate again.

[QuikSand]

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promo...ntStakes17.pdf

Comments to come...

[QuikSand]

-WTF do you do with EPICHARIS?
See: http://www.drf.com/news/epicharis-tr...es-run-belmont

-I agree IWC has the best case...but I'm not wild about betting him at 3-1

-I still like TAPWRIT on breeding, but want a better price...might get it

-J BOYS ECHO? Maybe? Maybe a much better price than the ML 15, right?

-kicking tires on MULTIPLIER and MEANTIME with opposite paths to victory

[QuikSand]

The more I look, the more convinced I am that there's enough early speed to keep things honest up front, nobody's going to get an easy path there, and if IWC is the class of that lot he'll still need a legit pedigree to hold on. I think they will all get caught, and I think TAPWRIT is the guy to do it, though maybe not alone. I'll be hoping for better than 6-1, but I reckon he will be my pick this year.

[weegeebored]

I agree with you QS -- Tapwrit for me depending on odds. Currently @5-1. Seems a little short to me. Gormley intrigues me, though. Better running style and will have better odds. That said, IWC fits the winning profile for the Belmont and will not surprise anyone if he wins. I would play IWC at 7-2.

[murrayyyyy]

Congrats guys. Speed didnt drop in early like i expected to drop tap back.

[QuikSand]

Pretty nice hit here...

[murrayyyyy]

The Jim Dandy just reminds me how horrible this year was... A horse that has never raced on dirt just beat the KD and and Preak winners from this year in a 5 horse field.

[QuikSand]

...that after Always Dreaming set a pedestrian 48 1/2 pace, and STILL let the winner (and another outsider) run him down easily. It's not like a crazy pace situation doomed the favorites. They just got straight up beat by a better horse (today, at least).

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

...that after Always Dreaming set a pedestrian 48 1/2 pace, and STILL let the winner (and another outsider) run him down easily. It's not like a crazy pace situation doomed the favorites. They just got straight up beat by a better horse (today, at least).

And one of the two other horses had only run 1 race. Jesus it was a shitfest that made it seem like both owners bet on the horses that were 8-1 or higher.