What a FOOL Believes - a Real-Time MP FOF thread

[QuikSand]

I did one cap-out reneg (but failed on another reneg with CB Richardson) trying to clear cap space to re-sign S Desai. I may try one last time to get him re-upped while he is still restricted, but his demands are so high I just don't see how I can do it. We have a current CB who has good skills to play safety (CB Skip Marshall) and among our draftees (rounds 1,2, and 4 all nominally cornerbacks) I think we have one or two possible options, so I have theoretically "addressed" the position.

Pass rusher will be tricky. We couldn't afford DT Midget, who remains unsigned, and instead landed a so-so veteran in DE Erick Richard, who presumably steps in to start at DT. (By the way - nailed it with the contract offer there - won out but just barely, which is the ideal place to be) My guess is he'll be adequate - probably roughly as good as Midget was playing mostly outside for us last year.

[QuikSand]

One more note of interest -- I trade-blocked CB Brendan Grubbs, thinking he'd fetch a solid price. very solid cover bars, and freaking stats as a return man. I think this guy is a very valuable player, especially in this league.

I made the questionable step of being honest in my block post - saying that I'd need a 1st round pick. No interest.

Maybe the wide-open approach would have worked better? Let someone offer a future 2, and try to wok up from there?

Anyway...he will be a tricky guy to decide with by season's end -- my ability to re-up with him long term is likely a function of my rookie class. We are solid at CB and if the rookies are good, we're very deep and young, too. My best guess is I keep him around -- he's a very nice CB3 and that edge in kick returning is really nice to have, and I think he can maintain his 30+ average there playing on this team.

[QuikSand]

so, this thread is a waste of time, right?

[Comey]

Nope. I check for updates daily.

[QuikSand]

Thanks. I'm not really just begging for applause...more curious if this feels empty.

My main problem (in my mind) is that a much more interesting read would be stuff like: "Wow, QB Upshaw will listen to my FA offer after all, so I think I can just re-sign him cheaply in stage 9 rather than overspend on these other guys..." But posting that, in theory, reveals my thinking to league rivals, and could give away my plan. Unlikely that many would read this, but still...I end up holding back.

Not sure where to draw the line there.

[rush_27]

I read regularly Quik.


If you enjoy doing it, then carry on. I like the format.

[QuikSand]

So... speaking of Upshaw. After he finally gives us one pretty solid season, he now wants to get paid (again). Holding out, and wants $20m/yr, which is I guess the going rate for a "pretty good starter" in this mature league. It would take a big move to afford that... so I may go back to my strategy from a couple seasons ago, and wait him out. If not, we might have to saddle up 2nd round semi-bust Archie Buckner, who might have otherwise been on the roster bubble at the cut-to-53 phase. Interesting twist.

We have about $7m in cap space (with 61 guys signed, no roster needs)... so our ability to make a big splash for S Desai or anyone in late free agency is limited. I will definitely kick tires on free agent QBs, and will look through the undrafted rookies per usual.

I'm not sure why I knew my 1st round CB was going to stink (i.e. what I "saw" after picking him that made me sure, which I didn't see when I decided to pick him) -- but that is accurate. He looks like a stiff. I still do not really have a handle on the draft -- feel much like I did a long time ago before people had cracked all these various connections and lines-in-sand and the like... I drafted by a "sense of smell" there, and I am back to feeling that way. I have landed some very solid players for great value, but overall I am lucky if I'm in the upper half of the skills in this league. Coupled with the lack of chemistry, I'm a little surprised that I remain an upper tier team here, more or less.

Anyway - rookie class looks like it will feature three mediocre but not special DBs, one DT who looks rotation-caliber, and a couple specialists. Meh.

[QuikSand]

Cap situation - in context:

Have about $7m on hand. I am making bids on some free agents, but it looks like every single big is going to be a minsal offer -- either zero cap impact, or possible negative (if we land a rookie who displaces a minsal vet).

I do need to keep some cap space on hand for end-of-year extensions... if I want to re-up with CB Grubbs I will need about $4m, G Doyle about $3.5m, C Heath $2.5m, and WR Goodwin $1.5m. I don't think I am going to extend the last two -- but I'd still need $8m under the cap to keep the top two guys. That means cutting/renegotiating a little more cap space than I have now, already.

There's simply no way I'm going to keep S Desai. He's pretty good, but asking for $12m is just out of my price range, both short term and long term. I suspect someone will land him in this stage - but it won't be us.

...and that also means that there's no way I can offer QB Upshaw his requested extension - it would hit us for over $10m this year. No dice - to free up that kind of space we'd have to do an absurd cap-out or extension with CB Richardson (who is just about to decline in ratings, stud status notwithstanding), or something else that would really crunch us next season and maybe beyond. Part of this problem is my overpaying a couple guys into the next season or two (TE Georgopolous most of all).

[johnnyshaka]

I'm following along as well.

[QuikSand]

Late free agency:

S Desai leaves as he gets the offer he wanted, more or less -- 4/$45. I don't think he's worth it, but we are going to miss him for certain, at least near term.

We sign a few riffraff guys, including a few candidates to play safety. Again, nothing to get excited about. I think our S slots will be staffed by a crossover CB and a rookie this season.

I'm not going to panic. We landed a near-stud WR, and that matters more to team success than both safeties put together, I am pretty confident.

[QuikSand]

Quick update. Ugh.

Some bad timing yesterday - my only time to get to FOF stuff was in the morning, the FOOL files were delayed, and I missed a stage. It was, sadly, the preseason stage -- meaning we suffered several AI roster cuts that didn't match what I would have made. Life goes on.

We rate as among the very worst drafts in the league, and I agree.

Looks like QB Upshaw is walking.

Things are just going gangbusters here.

[QuikSand]

...if we manage a winning record this season, it will be DESPITE my efforts, not because of them. We seem poised for a crappy 6-10 effort -- crumbling defense, untested QB, and roster gaps all over the place.

[Comey]

Very interesting how quickly things changed here. How long could you turn it around? Just as quick, or do you see a longer road? (You know...like a week.)

[QuikSand]

(As I wait for today's file to load up)

I'm probably good enough of a manager to turn any team into a respectable one in two seasons. In this league that's a month real time. So no shock.

The addition of a minor cap crunch can help - free agency might open up a bit. Without that, it's pretty hard to really build unless your'e a draft ace or you're at the very top of the draft, and I'm not either one (well, on the latter front, I don't expect to be 2-14 anytime soon).

Most likely, we muddle through this year, get back to 8-9 wins next season, and are back to the usual "fringe contender" status thereafter. Boring as hell, especially in a league where I don't get to play all my usual bells and whistles games.

[QuikSand]

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

[QuikSand]

Okay, then... would we settle for a 12-4 record, our first bye week in a long while, and the #2 scoring offense in the league?

FOOL: Baltimore Ravens 2055

Starts with QB Archie Buckner, who was surprisingly effective in his first action - #11 in overall QB effectiveness by BELCO metrics. I would have expected less - at least many more interceptions in a first year of play.

I think basically the investment on the OL is paying off here - LT Bullock is becoming a true stud, and we have kept the same exact starting five in place for three years running, which has to help. The running game was a solid 5 ypc, and the passing game a solid 7 ypa, and nearly every player was productive without any one guy looking like he was carrying the team.

Defense exceeded expectations as well. The pass rush was again mediocre, but again it didn't seem to matter much. The pass defense (secondary?) was great, just great - as we are now three deep with high quality cornerbacks. CB Grubbs had 13 PDs playing mainly nickel corner, and CB Marshall was solid at SS, too -- so our DB depth probably carried the team here. We're going to have to pay Grubbs, but I think he's worth it (33.5 KR avg doesn't hurt, either, and that's with zero TDs to skew the numbers).

So, really nice season. Didn't see it coming, being totally honest. So, the plans for a mini rebuild have to go on hold... now the longer term questions will be affording an extension with Bucker after we pay Grubbs, and who might have to go to bring all this together. Fun stuff.

[QuikSand]

...league is on hiatus for a bit. Not sure about the thread, yet.

[QuikSand]

So, league is back in action, postseaosn has run.

FOOL: Baltimore Ravens 2055

Nice run to yet another runner-up finish, losing in a close title game to Carolina (second time in 6 seasons). Cannot complain, especially given the weird QB situation.

Speaking of which - Shaquille Upshaw retired after we cut him and he sat out the season. Alas. Now, our new starter Archie Buckner thinks he's something special after one season as a starter, and wants $20m+ to re-sign. This is the real weakness of building a roster around other spots than QB, it's really hard to develop any cohesion there, unless your guy is absolutely dreadful. Buckner is a legit 34/34, not ing special at all, but wants 6% of the salary cap - not a monstrous salary, but enough to make it tough to afford for what he gives us. He i likely in the same situation a Upshaw - we either get one more year from him now, or he holds out and we have to cut him.

We are in cap heck to start the new season, and may have to cut one or two expensive players to get in line.

[QuikSand]

Quick catch-up... draft and early free agency are done.

Quiet offseason, as we were cap strapped. I cleared enough space to re-sign a few, and to land a potential WR2 (and cut Elway to make cap space), but no big moves. We are only carrying one legit TE and one legit WR, leaving me very uncertain what to do with our offensive scheme (which has been heavy 2TE for a few seasons).

Our biggest new is non-news...QB Buckner did not hold out. So, we will get one more season with him, and then theoretically an option in free agency afterward. It's unlikely he will look terribly attractive to other teams (he basically stinks) but if he's not too high on himself, we'll give him a look for a second contract.

DE Erik Richard is holding out, and I don't see us paying him. That could leave us cruelly thin at DE.

Draft:

1(31) LCB Pat Madison 36/46
2(31) LT Kenyon Barrett 16/52
3(31) P Conrad Hamlin 68/69
4(31) LCB Bubba Way 22/43
5(31) SE Johnathan Harvey 24/43
6(31) RCB Travis Dixon 28/34
...Ben's rating system omitted my 7th rounder, so i will too.

As is too often the case, I'm seeing a lot of draft pick erosion immediately. Not sure if it's bad scouts or (more likely) jut bad drafting on my end. I thnk the DBs Madison (1st) and Dixon (6th) will be the guys who stick around long term and contribute...and the punter obviously looks good. If Madison gives me a nice +10 in preseason or so, then maybe we have something serious there (not sure if he's a S or CB yet).

[QuikSand]

I think this guy will start at RDE for us this year, given Richard's holdout:

DE Leslie Coffey

3rd year guy, development has been solid, I moved him outside to match better with his pass rushing skill bent. If we do start him, it will make an extension much costlier next season...so we might need to extend him this year, which could be tricky. Not sure if this is "the answer" for us, but we're so thin at DE (we'll likely cut Richard now, and venerable Braxton Ellard is in his clear twilight, likely to drop into cohesion-only-value this preseason) that I think we probably need to wrap him up for a couple seasons (looks like that will be roughly $5m per, not that bad if a solid veteran tarter goes for $20m).

[QuikSand]

Okay, file sent in for the regular season. Giddyup.

Rookie class is okay - stud punter, and long term assets at DB, possibly a nice rotation caliber WR in the making. We are going to be deep at DB for a long time.

DE Richard does not recant his holdout, so he's gone. Coffey will start, and we will rotate some pass-rushing DTs in on the outside. I'm cooling of late on the insistence that this defense needs top-tier pass rushers to work properly...so we ought to be okay. Our cover men can handle an extra second or two.

On offense, more of the same I guess. Buckner gets a second year, and theoretically could improve. He'll have to show us a lot to get a new contract for big money next season.

Our special teams should be excellent. Our kicker is nothing special, but we ought to be among the top tier in getting returns and stopping them. A stud punter ought to help there, but we are deep with ST assets in our depth chart - in a no-injury league, why not?

We have cleared enough cap to extend our LT Bullock and a couple other guys, and did so without cutting/trading LB Jaax or RB Guerrierri. So, we will take another stab at this with largely the same roster and plan as last season, when we got a little lucky and won the conference (adding to my unparalleled cabinet of runner-up trophies).

[QuikSand]

Okay, regular season is in the books:

FOOL: Baltimore Ravens 2056

11-5, #3 seed. Not great, but okay.

Main takeaways - running game suffered, Guerrieri was not worth the big money we still paid him (but Whittle again great as the backup). Passing game stable, and solid.

Defense was okay - awful against the run, but solid against the pass and pretty good in grabbing turnovers. Pass rush was adequate. CB Jeremy Richardson posts another 11 interceptions and stakes a strong claim to being the best cornerback this league has ever seen (not joking at all).

Special teams are really solid - KR Grubbs is a total monster with 36.7 yards per kickoff return (!!!), and we are in the top tier in all the return numbers, and tied for first in net punting. So - that part of the roster is in really nice shape.

Looking ahead --

I don't love our chances of winning three games, two on the road most likely, and getting to the title game. So, I suspect we are done. As usual, we're in the zone I call "fringe contender" -- good enough to be in the playoffs, but it would be a real surprise if we popped off a title in the next stage. Could happen, but we're probably 12-1 or 15-1 against.

I'm putting in contract offers to extend our essential guys, next season will again be tight but we do have a couple expensive contracts coming off the board (most notably DE Braxton Ellard, whose $25m outstrips his 31/31 rating, 10 sacks notwithstanding).

[QuikSand]

Yup... postseason plays out as expected. We win our hope opener, and lose on the road to the #2 seed Tennessee in a fairly close game. Season over.

I apparently made a serious miscalculation in cap space, and our offers to several expiring players were rejected (I presume due to too little cap space). Ouch. Another blunder I really cannot afford with this roster. I expect CB Tanner Hayes will be looking for big bucks in open free agency, even with a modest cap crunch in this league - more than the $9m/yr we offered him believing it would lock him up.

[QuikSand]

League on hiatus for a while.

Thread in limbo.

[QuikSand]

Two seasons have passed -- and we remained in basically the same orbit.

FOOL: Baltimore Ravens History

A 12-4 season, then a 13-3, but not advancing even to the title game. We kept QB Bucker in the fold each season, have amassed a tremendous secondary, added a young starter at RB, signed two big time defensive linemen, but overall have been ... meh.

In the opening stage of the 2059 free agency stages, we decided to pull the trigger on a free agent QB, and brought aboard an imperfect but good-looking QB in Donnie Swager. So, this has the potential to be a big turning point for this team.

[QuikSand]

Quick update, after three years with Donnie Swager - the guy I thought might take the team to new heights.

Not really. A passer rating of around 95 for the three years is fine...but not dramatically better than what I had gotten used to by playing a cheap hobo at QB. So... small sample size, but it's hard to feel like the big money was worth a lot. We decided no to re-up with Swager - he'll be a free agent this offseason.

As for the team - we're in the same familiar rut. Last three seasons, we have posted 11, 11, and 12.5 wins...which is nice enough. And we have gone out in the divisional playoff round each season. Less nice.

So... going forward the core of this team is basically: star LT Bullock, a stacked veteran DL, and a rent-a-stud older CB we signed on a two year deal. Some file weirdness caused me to let a really good young SS walk, so we are suddenly thinner in the secondary than I'd like.

Anyhow...in the "occasional updates" column, that's where we are in BMore. Wishing we could be more. Probably back to the cheap hobo QB approach next season, unless we manage to draft someone of any value from pick 1.27, approximately our usual perch.

[QuikSand]

We let Swager walk off the team, and used the cap space to shore up other spots on the roster and extend a few key players. That's fine, we got basically as much production from our new minsal hobo QB, as usual. So, experiment concluded, I guess.

My more interesting FOOL-around angle this season was that we drafted a super-fast, no-skills QB in the draft (4.37 dash time) and gave him a chance to tote the rock a little bit. Worked out - he was actually way more productive than our starting RB (who we just re-upped with, sadly).

So... that proved interesting, and potentially valuable, I think. Freeing up my reserve RB slots to focus on special teams is a nice angle -- and gave me really good numbers from a guy who has no business carrying the ball out of the backfield, but posted really good KR stats this year (35 yard average, made him a ST player of the year).

So... sandboxing our way to a 12-4 record, a #2 seed, and probably a semi-early playoff out, per usual.

[QuikSand]

So, an update of sorts. The FOOL league this dynasty was about has long since folded. But the GML has basically taken its place as the one-sim league that scratches this same itch.

I'm thinking of doing a write-up on that team, also the Ravens, in this same style. Writing this as a means to motivate myself to actually do so.

One problem I'm having with that league is...er...real life. I sometimes neglect my team for a day, and it seems to happen on a critical sim. Like in three recent seasons, the "whole regular season" sim. And I end up seeing the AI cut important players, make terrible lineup decisions, and so forth for an entire regular season.

I'm thinking that a public dynasty might heighten my sense of accountability for the team, and make that downside less likely. I also really enjoy the fast pace, and have an interesting storyline to write about, as my team has been alarmingly weak in the postseason despite a pretty solid regular season run, and has zero rings to show for itself over my tenure.

So, Snakebitten Ravens may be on the way to this forum soon.