fun stat about coaching tenures

albionmoonlight · 11-13-2019, 12:47 PM

Saw this on another board:
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Across the 4 major sports, of the last 123 championships, only 1 was won by a coach NOT in the first 5 years of his tenure (or a repeat winner). The only exception is Bill Cowher, who got to the Super Bowl in year 4, but did not win it until years later.

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It seems crazy, but I guess when you factor in repeat players (Popovich, Belichick, etc.) and the fact that most coaches get fired within five years if they don't bring home the bacon, this makes a bit more sense

Bobble · 11-13-2019, 03:13 PM

So, it is basically saying that almost everyone who has won a championship has gotten their first within 5 years. Not that nearly every championship has been won by a guy who has been there less than 5 years.

NobodyHere · 11-13-2019, 03:40 PM

So Dallas should just fire Jason Garret right now?

JonInMiddleGA · 11-13-2019, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

So Dallas should just fire Jason Garret right now?

This isn't the worst idea I've ever heard

molson · 11-13-2019, 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobble

So, it is basically saying that almost everyone who has won a championship has gotten their first within 5 years. Not that nearly every championship has been won by a guy who has been there less than 5 years.

I think teams also overestimate their odds of winning it all and fire coaches to settle for a worse choice.

If a coach gets you close, odds are the next coach won't increase your odds of a championship. Getting close takes skill but winning it all also takes a lot of luck

albionmoonlight · 11-13-2019, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson

I think teams also overestimate their odds of winning it all and fire coaches to settle for a worse choice.

Yeah. Ron Rivera is a good example. I think that he's an above average coach. He went 15-1 and made the Super Bowl. I think that the Panthers were smart not to fire him b/c he didn't win it when he got there.

Or what if the Browns had stuck with Belichick?

JonInMiddleGA · 11-13-2019, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Yeah. Ron Rivera is a good example. I think that he's an above average coach. He went 15-1 and made the Super Bowl. I think that the Panthers were smart not to fire him b/c he didn't win it when he got there.

I almost mentioned him as a prime candidate for this very stat actual, but in the opposite direction.

Since that SB, 29-28 with only one playoff appearance and zero playoff wins.

If anything he looks more & more like the reason you should move on.

albionmoonlight · 11-13-2019, 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I almost mentioned him as a prime candidate for this very stat actual, but in the opposite direction.

Since that SB, 29-28 with only one playoff appearance and zero playoff wins.

If anything he looks more & more like the reason you should move on.

Hmm. Didn't know about those numbers. I would have guessed a lot better

cuervo72 · 11-13-2019, 08:26 PM

ping: Andy Reid

molson · 11-13-2019, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I almost mentioned him as a prime candidate for this very stat actual, but in the opposite direction.

Since that SB, 29-28 with only one playoff appearance and zero playoff wins.

If anything he looks more & more like the reason you should move on.

But presumably they weren't going to fire him after going 15-1 and going to the Super Bowl. So the soonest they'd get rid of him was after going 6-10 the next year. (which would be very aggressive). Since THEN, they've gone 23-18 with a fading, and now absent, Cam Newton. What are the odds that someone they brought in would have done better than that with that team? I guess it's possible. I'd say less than 50% though. I don't think they've left a super bowl on the table or anything.

LastWhiteSoxFanStanding · 11-13-2019, 10:26 PM

So I guess this is the past 30 years? It would be interesting to see the list of coaches who won after 5 years other than Cowher.

can anyone think of any?

LastWhiteSoxFanStanding · 11-13-2019, 10:28 PM

The first name that came to mind is Dean Smith, but I suppose that doesn't count for this exercise since it is college.

Maple Leafs · 11-13-2019, 10:54 PM

Al Arbour was seven years in as Islanders coach when the dynasty began. (Sather was in year eight in Edmonton, but three of those were WHA so I guess he still counts.)

JonInMiddleGA · 11-13-2019, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Al Arbour was seven years in as Islanders coach when the dynasty began. (Sather was in year eight in Edmonton, but three of those were WHA so I guess he still counts.)

But that was 39 years ago when it began, so outside the time frame.

JonInMiddleGA · 11-13-2019, 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson

But presumably they weren't going to fire him after going 15-1 and going to the Super Bowl. So the soonest they'd get rid of him was after going 6-10 the next year. (which would be very aggressive). Since THEN, they've gone 23-18 with a fading, and now absent, Cam Newton. What are the odds that someone they brought in would have done better than that with that team? I guess it's possible. I'd say less than 50% though. I don't think they've left a super bowl on the table or anything.

Per the tenure stat, basically, if he was going to win one then he'd have won that one shot. The slide that has followed has been in line with 3 decades worth of outcomes.

It doesn't necessarily say "you'll win one if you change" but it says "you won't win one if you don't"

albionmoonlight · 12-02-2019, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I almost mentioned him as a prime candidate for this very stat actual, but in the opposite direction.

Since that SB, 29-28 with only one playoff appearance and zero playoff wins.

If anything he looks more & more like the reason you should move on.

Yeah. I think that the last few weeks have pulled me solidly into your camp on this one.

I think that he could still do well with a fresh start somewhere. But the Panthers' tenure should (and almost certainly will) come to an end after this season.

QuikSand · 12-02-2019, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LastWhiteSoxFanStanding

So I guess this is the past 30 years? It would be interesting to see the list of coaches who won after 5 years other than Cowher.

can anyone think of any?

Don Shula won his first title in year six with Baltimore

henry296 · 12-02-2019, 04:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Don Shula won his first title in year six with Baltimore

Chuck Noll was year 6 for the Steelers as well.

Carman Bulldog · 12-02-2019, 06:10 PM

But both outside of 30 years. This only goes back to what, 88-90?

I'm more interested on the breakdown of how many of these winning coaches are experienced (ie. have coached another team in the league) as opposed to new coaches. It might be close to an even split.

In the NFL, Kubiak, Coughlin, and Carroll come to mind as the former while Tomlin, Harbaugh, and Payton come to mind as the latter.

NobodyHere · 12-02-2019, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

But both outside of 30 years. This only goes back to what, 88-90?

I'm more interested on the breakdown of how many of these winning coaches are experienced (ie. have coached another team in the league) as opposed to new coaches. It might be close to an even split.

In the NFL, Kubiak, Coughlin, and Carroll come to mind as the former while Tomlin, Harbaugh, and Payton come to mind as the latter.

Throw Dungy in with the experienced coaches.

Atocep · 02-02-2020, 10:07 PM

Add Andy Reid?

Young Drachma · 02-03-2020, 01:54 PM

GMs so trigger happy now with firing coaches, nobody gets that Jeff Fisher deal where you can just be bad forever or build a team and get lucky over time. So it's a lot of coaches taking over teams and getting to benefit from someone else's infrastructure.

11-13-2019, 03:40 PM	#3
NobodyHere Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2013	So Dallas should just fire Jason Garret right now? __________________ "I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney"

11-13-2019, 08:26 PM	#9
cuervo72 Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Maryland	ping: Andy Reid __________________ null

11-13-2019, 10:54 PM	#13
Maple Leafs Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2002	Al Arbour was seven years in as Islanders coach when the dynasty began. (Sather was in year eight in Edmonton, but three of those were WHA so I guess he still counts.) __________________ Down Goes Brown: Toronto Maple Leafs Humor and Analysis

02-03-2020, 01:54 PM	#22
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	GMs so trigger happy now with firing coaches, nobody gets that Jeff Fisher deal where you can just be bad forever or build a team and get lucky over time. So it's a lot of coaches taking over teams and getting to benefit from someone else's infrastructure. __________________ Current dynasty: OOTP25 Blitz: RTS meets Moneyball \| OOTP Mod: GM Excel Competitive Balance Tax/Revenue Sharing Calc \| FBCB Mods on Github

11-13-2019, 03:13 PM	#2
Bobble College Prospect Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: High and outside	So, it is basically saying that almost everyone who has won a championship has gotten their first within 5 years. Not that nearly every championship has been won by a guy who has been there less than 5 years.

11-13-2019, 10:26 PM	#11
LastWhiteSoxFanStanding College Starter Join Date: Jun 2003	So I guess this is the past 30 years? It would be interesting to see the list of coaches who won after 5 years other than Cowher. can anyone think of any?

11-13-2019, 10:28 PM	#12
LastWhiteSoxFanStanding College Starter Join Date: Jun 2003	The first name that came to mind is Dean Smith, but I suppose that doesn't count for this exercise since it is college.

12-02-2019, 06:10 PM	#19
Carman Bulldog College Benchwarmer Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Canada	But both outside of 30 years. This only goes back to what, 88-90? I'm more interested on the breakdown of how many of these winning coaches are experienced (ie. have coached another team in the league) as opposed to new coaches. It might be close to an even split. In the NFL, Kubiak, Coughlin, and Carroll come to mind as the former while Tomlin, Harbaugh, and Payton come to mind as the latter.

02-02-2020, 10:07 PM	#21
Atocep Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Puyallup, WA	Add Andy Reid?

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