2020 Election Prediction Contest

[larrymcg421]

President - 5 pts per correct state

You can simply list the Clinton states Trump will win and the Trump states Biden will win. Any state you don't list will be a prediction that it stays the same from 2016. You can separately predict ME-2 and NE-2 for 1 pt each.

Senate - 3 pts per correct state

You can simply list the Republican seats that will be won by a Dem and the Dem seats that will be won by a Republican. Any seat you don't list will be a prediction that the incumbent party holds the seat. (If predicting a GA flip, make sure to specify whether it is the normal GA race or the specia election).

House - Which party will gain seats and by how many (R+5, D+5, etc.). You lose 1 pt for every seat you are off.

Entries due by 7pm on election night.

[larrymcg421]

Presidential

Biden wins MI, WI, PA, NC, AZ, TX, OH, IA, FL, GA, NE-2
Trump picks up no Clinton states.

Senate

Dems pick up NC, CO, ME, IA, AZ, GA (Ossoff), GA (Warnock)
GOP picks up AL

House - D pick up 6 more seats

Note: Predictions can be changed up until Nov 3rd at 7pm

[larrymcg421]

bump

[Jas_lov]

Presidential

Biden wins MI, WI, PA, NC, FL, AZ, IA, GA, OH, NE-2, ME-2
Trump wins no Clinton states

Senate

Dems add AZ, CO, NC, ME, IA, GA(Ossoff), GA(Warnock runoff), MT
GOP adds AL

House

Dems pick up 10 seats

[Racer]

Biden wins WI, MI, PA, NC, FL, AZ, and NE-2
Trump wins no Clinton states.

Senate
Dems add NC, ME, CO, and AZ
GOP adds AL

House
Democrats pick up 4 seats

[CrimsonFox]

Senate:
Dems gain: IA, NC, ME, GA, AZ
Nazis gain: AL

House:
Dems gain: 3 (2 plus my own district in an upset)


Prez:
Dem: VA CO ME NH MN MI WI NV PA NC FL ME2 GA IA OH
Nazis: cry and try to have the supreme court overturn many states, they do. The guillotines get fired up.

[larrymcg421]

bump

For the Senate, make sure you clarify which GA seat you are predicting to flip, if not both.

[JPhillips]

Presidential

Biden wins MI, WI, PA, NC, AZ, NE-2
Trump picks up no Clinton states.

Senate

Dems pick up NC, CO, ME, AZ, GA(Ossoff)
GOP picks up AL

House - D pick up 12 more seats

[BYU 14]

Man, I wish I could be as optimistic as some. I just see this as being close, coming down to PA and creating an absolute shit show of the week, full of legal challenges, unrest and some sporadic violence. Hopefully not ending up with the supreme Court involved.

I have never in my life hoped to be more wrong. Biden winning PA, NC and AZ would be glorious.

[Bee]

Biden picks up : MI, WI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, NE-2, ME-2, IA, FL, OH, TX
Trump doesn't pick up anything

Senate:
Dems pick up AZ, CO, NC, IA, ME, GA-1, GA-2, MT, KS
GOP picks up AL

House: Dems pick up 15 seats

[Butter]

President

Biden wins MI, WI, PA, AZ, NE-2
Trump none

Senate
Dems: ME, AZ, MI, CO
GOP: AL

House
Dems +7

[larrymcg421]

Final bump. Let's get some more submissions!

[Racer]

Even though I entered I’m hoping Bee wins this.

[kingfc22]

Biden picks up : MI, WI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, NE-2, ME-2, IA, OH
Trump doesn't pick up anything

Senate:
Dems pick up AZ, CO, NC, IA, ME, SC, GA (Ossoff)
GOP picks up AL

House: D+16

[GrantDawg]

I am not making a prediction in case of a long standing curse. I am not superstitious but I am a little sitious.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[sterlingice]

Let's throw out some oddball commentary with the picks:

• If you have Trump picking up any states and you're right, you're a genius, polling needs to be massively re-examined, and it's 4 more years of Trump. I guess Nevada would be the one that has an outside chance of that. New Hampshire? I dunno.
• MI, WI - These seem really likely. Not planting much of a flag with this. Gets Biden to 257
• PA - This is a tough one. If you do the 538 projection map with just the "guaranteed" states for Trump and Biden with MI/WI for Biden, PA is 94%(!) to go for Biden. That seems way too high to me. Lots of potential for shenanigans, too. I'm going to set this aside for now.
• NC, AZ, GA, FL. I think the Sun Belt is the most likely to give Biden his win. North Carolina feels like it's ready to go blue this election. I'd feel the same way about Georgia if not for how badly the 2018 election appears to have been stolen. Arizona might flip, too - less shenanigans, more red voters. Florida is home to Florida Man (and DeSantis) so who knows.
• ME-2 and NE-2 - Go home, EC, you're drunk. Not actually proportional but also not winner take all. Both slightly favor Biden in the final 538 forecast but could go either way with Nebraska a bit more favorable to Biden.
• IA, OH - Both look pink. I always thought of Ohio as more blue but it's just proving to not be. Iowa has some promising early voting numbers for Biden but probably won't be enough
• TX - I don't think it happens - I think Trump has a comfortable-ish win here by 3%: close but really not close. If you're picking this, you think it's going to be a rout. If it happens, it will be.
• If you made it this far, you've either hit the end of the line or the sky is the limit. What's next? MT and AK? SC and MO? To get all the way here, polling would have to be off by a full 4-5 points in Biden's favor.

Senate:

• (R)-AL, (D)-CO seem really likely. If these don't happen, rerun the simulation.
• If you want to go fishing for unlikely ones, I guess you could go with (R)-MI, (D)-TX, MS, KS, AK. But those seem like long shots. However, all of these races are in the 80-90% range in 538 so that means that taken as a whole, there's a chance that one might flip that shouldn't. All are in the 5-8 point range with a reputable-ish outlier that had it much closer in the last month.
• (D)-AZ - I don't get why this is only a 78% race in 538's model. It looks more the first tier of races than the second, looking at the polling. I guess when you throw in incumbency and state makeup, it gets closer - I dunno. This is why they're professionals not me.
• (D) GA x2 - If the Dems can somehow win outright tonight in at least one race (Ossoff), the road gets a lot easier for them retaking the Senate. I don't see how the other race avoids a runoff. If one or both Georgia races go to a runoff, their chances of going blue drop off significantly, right? Or do they? Did Dems finally wake up to needing turnout not just during Presidential elections? Or was that just because it was voting against Trump? I dunno. Again, people get paid to do this stuff. I'm just a numbers junkie.
• (D)-MT, SC - Bullock was a strong Dem candidate but COVID and 2020 have made it tough for him to thread a tight needle in a tough state. Graham may have been the person most weakened by the Trump Presidency. Both GOP candidates probably win. But if neither do, the three below this almost certainly go blue because the Dems are having a good night.
• (D) NC, ME, IA - In order of odds of a pickup. Somehow, Cunningham's sex scandal never really caught up with him in the polls and he's been up in almost all of the recent polls. Gideon has been ahead in most recent polls, too, in wacky (politically) Maine. Ernst and Greenfield have swapped the lead a couple of times in Iowa. It looks like the incumbent Republican has the slight edge but reputable polls have been all over the map the last two weeks (Emerson had Ernst winning until their most recent poll, Selzer and Quinnipiac had it the other way around). Early voting numbers look strong for Dems out of Iowa but lots of votes to cast today, too. But this year, who knows how all this shakes out.

House: throw a dart.

Ok, my picks

Biden picks up: MI, WI, NC, AZ, GA, PA, NE-2, ME-2 (322-216)
GA, PA were the hardest calls. The numbers would favor a FL win for Biden, but I think something shady happens there (351-187 Biden in that case). OH barely goes for Trump

Senate: (D) CO, AZ, NC, ME, (R) AL
I almost had Iowa but since I didn't have Biden winning it, that gives a very small window for Greenfield. I think both GA races go to runoff and worry the Dems lose both but if one is going to flip tonight, it has to be the Ossoff one. If you could give me the winner of one race tonight that will actually be called tonight (unlike PA), that might tell me all I need to know about everything. If Ossoff wins and avoids a runoff, the rout is on. If Ossoff is ahead and going to runoff, the Dems are probably having a pretty good night. If Perdue is winning, it's going to be a long night. Also, if the GA Senate seats are for control of the Senate, RIP mailboxes and phones for Georgia friends.

House: +9 (aforementioned dart throw)

SI

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Bee

Biden picks up : MI, WI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, NE-2, ME-2, IA, FL, OH, TX
Trump doesn't pick up anything

Senate:
Dems pick up AZ, CO, NC, IA, ME, GA-1, GA-2, MT, KS
GOP picks up AL

House: Dems pick up 15 seats

You sir, are a freaking idiot.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Biden picks up: MI, WI, NC, AZ, GA, PA, NE-2, ME-2 (322-216)
GA, PA were the hardest calls. The numbers would favor a FL win for Biden, but I think something shady happens there (351-187 Biden in that case). OH barely goes for Trump

Strangely enough, this is still in play. Not feeling so good about NC but the rest seems ok.

SI

[sterlingice]

We're not going to be able to finish this off until January, are we?

SI

[larrymcg421]

Looks like it's going to come down to Butter and SI. I haven't done a full tally, but before we get more NC results, both have missed one state in the Pres and Senate races.

SI incorrectly picked ME-2 to flip, which puts him one point behind. SI picked Dems to win NC in both Pres and Senate. Butter picked GOP to win in both Pres and Senate.

If Biden and Cunningham win - SI wins
If Trump and Tillis win - Butter wins
If Biden wins and Tillis wins - Butter almost certainly wins based on the House (+6 to SI's +9)

[Vegas Vic]

Perusing the thread, quite a few did well on the presidency. The senate and house, not so much.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Looks like it's going to come down to Butter and SI. I haven't done a full tally, but before we get more NC results, both have missed one state in the Pres and Senate races.

SI incorrectly picked ME-2 to flip, which puts him one point behind. SI picked Dems to win NC in both Pres and Senate. Butter picked GOP to win in both Pres and Senate.

If Biden and Cunningham win - SI wins
If Trump and Tillis win - Butter wins
If Biden wins and Tillis wins - Butter almost certainly wins based on the House (+6 to SI's +9)

I think NC stays red so I'm guessing Butter wins. But if you had told me only one of GA and NC goes blue, I'd never have believed it was GA over NC.

SI

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I think NC stays red so I'm guessing Butter wins. But if you had told me only one of GA and NC goes blue, I'd never have believed it was GA over NC.

SI

That was my thought on states as well. I died on the Senate and House races.

[Butter]

My hope was for a blue wave, but my belief was that it was going to be tight and that the election would play out somewhat like it did. More Trump turnout. But Biden would regain "blue wall" states and AZ would start to turn like NV and CO already have.

My wife was so nervous Tuesday night, and I just said to be patient and it would work out.

GA has to be the biggest surprise, and you would have to think that Abrams and her machinery have to get a lot of credit there.