2022 NFL Side Gambling Game - QB Stock Game

[korme]

Hey guys, I wanted to see if there was any interest in another side game for the upcoming NFL season.

This is called the QB stock game, where each player starts with a bankroll of $2,000 and will buy and sell shares of QB stocks throughout the 2022 season. I've attached a video explaining how it works and added the QB starting values for you to look over as well.

Entry to participate would be $10.

Please watch the video if you are interested.

[QuikSand]

I'll play. Get me the details. Ready to go out and toss $30 into hookers and blow already.

[korme]

So far it would just be the 3 of us. What questions did you have?

[QuikSand]

any limits on how much of the initial stake can go in one slot? strategy might vary if it's 30 entries versus three, but still seems like a guardrail there makes sense

but i'll toss you ten bucks and will seek to clean out the brothers K

[QuikSand]

where is the source for the QBR values you show in the video?

[QuikSand]

so, if we happen to buy shares of some backup who lucks into getting a tiy sliver of sunshine on his ass like Trubisky last year (apparently) then that's a cash bonanza? some backup comes in and throws 2/2 for 24 yards and he gets full value of that performance, despite its obvious shallowness?

just checking... that feels like a potential weak spot here...do we really want to cost out 2021 Trubusky > 2021 Herbert?

[BishopMVP]

I'd be game too, though like Quik pointed out should we have a minimum attempts (50?) (And maybe a secondary rule there where if a starting QB you have is hurt short of that attempt threshold you can cash out at the purchase price instead of being 0.)

Also curious on his other question - what's to limit us from just loading up on 1000 shares of Trevor Lawrence and hoping he has a competent first four weeks?

[korme]

All good questions. I'm at lunch, let me get back to my desk and I'll answer what I can.

I can quickly say I grabbed QBR from pfref.

[korme]

Okay, just couldn't remember my password for fofc on my work laptop so begrudgingly will type on my phone.

About the Trevor Lawrence type of problem... I was thinking perhaps I would break the QBs into four tier groups, strictly based on the order of that spreadsheet, with an initiak investment minimum of $300 per group. That way, you can still heavily throw money at one of the bottom guys, but you have to at least spread $900 around to other groups.

Also, if you put money on a backup, that's allowed. But you run the risk of being stagnant for 4 weeks.

Also, don't think I mentioned it in the video but the W/L +/- ratio will be calculated like this

W1: 2021 W/L / 4
WK5: 2022 W/L
WK9: 2022 W/L / 2
WK13: 2022 W/L / 3
Results: 2022 W/L / 4

That makes sense, right? Kinda flying by the seat of my pants here

[korme]

Also we are up to 5 people. That seems worth it.

[korme]

One more thing, shoot me a PM with your email and I'll send out an email when I get home.

Ideally I'd like to get everyone's bids in tonight but I can push to Sunday as long as no QBs from tonight are purchased.

[korme]

Maybe it's better if I just say you have to have a minimum of 4 or 5 investments of at least $300, and scrap the tiers thing, since these guys will be fluctuating so much up and down that after the 2nd round of investing it can't really be structured

Or 5 / $200, so you get a free $1000 to do however you wish.

[korme]

Or, I could bump the minimum player value up to $3.00 (including the rookies at $2.50) to make it less juicy and more risky.

Again, sorry for the dola barrage.

[QuikSand]

My view here: it's too late to have a caucus or debate... just set the rules as clearly as possible by fiat and we will play by them... and anticipate that someone will surely be trying to shoot the angles

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

My view here: it's too late to have a caucus or debate... just set the rules as clearly as possible by fiat and we will play by them... and anticipate that someone will surely be trying to shoot the angles

"Someone"

Sent my initial ones in. Since we're trying to close loopholes early one other I thought of - should there be a rule against having more than the highest QB's price in cash? Definitely don't want someone in the lead to be able to kneel out the clock, but should there be leeway Q2/3 to punt and say nahh I just don't see great value here & will keep more in cash, or should we say nah there's 32 teams there has to be at least 1 QB you consider a +EV play?

[QuikSand]

Okay, rosters sent out. I pushed all in on Matt Ryan, rather than the cheap guys. With team W/L making up a major part of the scoring here, I'm in on him being the obvious beneficiary of that. His posted QBR is a bit lower than the starters' mean, so if he just creeps back toward decent efficiency with IND (and that seems like a high probability proposition) and he ends up even slightly plus in the W/L column, he should be among the top gainers here. Like, if he matches last year's numbers for Mac Jones, then he ought to appreciate roughly 50% for the season. That felt like a solid shot to win the whole thing. Only Shorty pushed in on Ryan, and not as deeply as I did, so if he blows up as I'd expect, it's gonna take a really strong entry to beat both of us.

[QuikSand]

...looks like Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, and Russell Wilson were the other hot properties. "Change of situation" indeed.

I used Wilson, Mayfield, Lance, and Lamar Jackson as my lesser/minimum positions around Ryan.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Okay, rosters sent out. I pushed all in on Matt Ryan, rather than the cheap guys. With team W/L making up a major part of the scoring here, I'm in on him being the obvious beneficiary of that. His posted QBR is a bit lower than the starters' mean, so if he just creeps back toward decent efficiency with IND (and that seems like a high probability proposition) and he ends up even slightly plus in the W/L column, he should be among the top gainers here. Like, if he matches last year's numbers for Mac Jones, then he ought to appreciate roughly 50% for the season. That felt like a solid shot to win the whole thing. Only Shorty pushed in on Ryan, and not as deeply as I did, so if he blows up as I'd expect, it's gonna take a really strong entry to beat both of us.

Given the parameters I don't think 3,000 & a 50% return win this thing. Granted there's only 6 of us & the part of my strategy that bet on Baker Mayfield being competent doesn't look great right now (would've been nicer if that TE got a yard further!), but it seemed like the lowest QB's were priced too low. If they're decent & their teams go 2-2 month 1 the ROI is insane, whereas a guy like Rodgers has almost no upside at his price point

[BishopMVP]

If we were picking season long I would have gone as all in as I could on one of Ryan, Lance, or Wilson.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Given the parameters I don't think 3,000 & a 50% return win this thing. Granted there's only 6 of us & the part of my strategy that bet on Baker Mayfield being competent doesn't look great right now (would've been nicer if that TE got a yard further!), but it seemed like the lowest QB's were priced too low. If they're decent & their teams go 2-2 month 1 the ROI is insane, whereas a guy like Rodgers has almost no upside at his price point

That's fair. Floor price was 3.00, Ryan was 3.78...so I didn't pay a huge premium to get a guy who felt like a way better shot to vastly improve by this formula. And of course we aren't playing the whole season here...I phrased that poorly above. I meant "from lat year's pricing to this year's pricing." Most of the gains/losses are bound to happen in this first rather poorly defined increment, originally 4 games but now we wait and see I guess.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

That's fair. Floor price was 3.00, Ryan was 3.78...so I didn't pay a huge premium to get a guy who felt like a way better shot to vastly improve by this formula. And of course we aren't playing the whole season here...I phrased that poorly above. I meant "from lat year's pricing to this year's pricing." Most of the gains/losses are bound to happen in this first rather poorly defined increment, originally 4 games but now we wait and see I guess.

Yeah, Ryan isn't a bad play at all, I just figured the angle here was shoot for ROI on cheap guys Q1 then flip most of them for whatever QB underperformed over that SSS... Rodgers looks like a candidate, Mac Jones could be one given the Patriots schedule, etc. Just feels like a game you need to shoot for and hit on a couple high upside plays early before the values stabilize midseason.

[BishopMVP]

Looking at the sheet we have 2 Joe Burrow owners and 1 Josh Allen, and no one else picked a guy over $5.57 - maybe in future iterations it's worth capping guys or pulling their W/L bonus out so there is more upside to the top guys? Or we could start introducing derivatives so I could short Mitchell Trubisky!

[QuikSand]

Packers backup schooling everybody, we look like dopes

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Packers backup schooling everybody, we look like dopes

Apparently that Pat Mahomes guy is good at QB too, can't believe we all forgot about him!

(Also can I move my Trey Lance flier over to Jimmy G?)

[BishopMVP]

Looking at it now one angle I really didn't put the effort into was team schedules - if a guy on a weak team goes even 3-1 Q1 that's a quick double up opportunity unless they run for every TD.

[korme]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Given the parameters I don't think 3,000 & a 50% return win this thing. Granted there's only 6 of us & the part of my strategy that bet on Baker Mayfield being competent doesn't look great right now (would've been nicer if that TE got a yard further!), but it seemed like the lowest QB's were priced too low. If they're decent & their teams go 2-2 month 1 the ROI is insane, whereas a guy like Rodgers has almost no upside at his price point

On the flipside, during Q2 (Week 5), everybody will be circling Rodgers if this rough start continues

[Danny]

The Matt Ryan strategy is not looking good

[Toddzilla]

A strategy I always use in these type of games is "buy low, sell high"

[korme]

Q2 is out!

Here's an ugly version of Q2 values if anyone not playing is following along.

QUARTERBACK	QBR	WIN +/-	QBR VALUE	W/L VALUE	CHANGE	STOCK PRICE
Cooper Rush	73.9	3	7.39	3	$5.96	 $ 10.39 
Patrick Mahomes	82.3	2	8.23	2	$2.26	 $ 10.23 
Jalen Hurts	60.7	4	6.07	4	$4.97	 $ 10.07 
Tua Tagovailoa	77.8	2	7.78	2	$4.31	 $ 9.78 
Josh Allen	76.5	2	7.65	2	$2.33	 $ 9.65 
Lamar Jackson	72.4	0	7.24	0	$1.67	 $ 7.24 
Geno Smith	72.4	0	7.24	0	$2.91	 $ 7.24 
Justin Herbert	71.2	0	7.12	0	$0.31	 $ 7.12 
Ted Bridgewater	69.6	0	6.96	0	$2.22	 $ 6.96 
Daniel Jones	46.1	2	4.61	2	$3.21	 $ 6.61 
Jordan Love	66.1	0	6.61	0	$3.72	 $ 6.61 
Kirk Cousins	45.7	2	4.57	2	$1.34	 $ 6.57 
Zach Wilson	53.2	1	5.32	1	$3.32	 $ 6.32 
Aaron Rodgers	43.1	2	4.31	2	-$3.10	 $ 6.31 
Jacoby Brissett	61.3	0	6.13	0	$1.56	 $ 6.13 
Trevor Lawrence	58.8	0	5.88	0	$2.88	 $ 5.88 
Tom Brady	56.3	0	5.63	0	-$3.43	 $ 5.63 
Trace McSorley	53.4	0	5.34	0	$2.34	 $ 5.34 
Andy Dalton	60.0	-1	6	-1	$1.64	 $ 5.00 
Matt Stafford	49.6	0	4.96	0	-$3.17	 $ 4.96 
Marcus Mariota	49.6	0	4.96	0	$0.93	 $ 4.96 
Joe Burrow	49.4	0	4.94	0	-$1.49	 $ 4.94 
Kyler Murray	48.4	0	4.84	0	-$1.89	 $ 4.84 
Ryan Tannehill	47.8	0	4.78	0	-$2.56	 $ 4.78 
Jared Goff	67.1	-2	6.71	-2	$1.71	 $ 4.71 
Russell Wilson	44.9	0	4.49	0	-$0.48	 $ 4.49 
Trey Lance	44.4	0	4.44	0	$1.10	 $ 4.44 
Derek Carr	55.2	-2	5.52	-2	-$2.47	 $ 3.52 
Jimmy Garoppolo	33.2	0	3.32	0	-$2.76	 $ 3.32 
Matt Ryan	41.3	-1	4.13	-1	-$0.73	 $ 3.13 
Sam Howell			n/a		$0.00	 $ 3.00 
Kenny Pickett	28.3	0	n/a	0	$0.00	 $ 3.00 
Malik Willis	1.3	0	n/a	0	$0.00	 $ 3.00 
Bailey Zappe	15.9	0	n/a	0	$0.00	 $ 3.00 
Desmond Ridder			n/a		$0.00	 $ 3.00 
Matt Corral			n/a		$0.00	 $ 3.00 
Justin Fields	26.2	0	2.62	0	$0.00	 $ 3.00 
Mac Jones	34.0	-1	3.4	-1	-$2.84	 $ 3.00 
Jameis Winston	33.1	-1	3.31	-1	-$4.19	 $ 3.00 
Brian Hoyer	32.7	-1	3.27	-1	-$6.74	 $ 3.00 
Joe Flacco	28.2	-1	2.82	-1	-$1.10	 $ 3.00 
Mitch Trubisky	36.9	-2	3.69	-2	-$4.32	 $ 3.00 
Carson Wentz	35.7	-2	3.57	-2	-$2.72	 $ 3.00 
Dak Prescott	19.7	-1	1.97	-1	-$3.96	 $ 3.00 
Tyrod Taylor	2.1	0	0.21	0	-$0.54	 $ 3.00 
Case Keenum	1.5	0	0.15	0	-$1.19	 $ 3.00 
Baker Mayfield	15.3	-2	1.53	-2	-$0.01	 $ 3.00 
Davis Mills	28.4	-3	2.84	-3	$0.00	 $ 3.00 
Taylor Heinecke			0		-$0.74	 $ 3.00 
Sam Darnold			0		$0.00	 $ 3.00 

[QuikSand]

QS is out too

[korme]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

QS is out too

QS is in 4th! That's nearly better than half of your competition!

[QuikSand]

Oh, I'll still pay, I'm not bailing...but it should be nigh impossible to win from this far behind. I took a swing, I think I had the right concept, just missed on the specifics. If I had pushed all in on Hurts or Tua instead of Ryan, I'd have the catbird seat.

Should have known that the Colts would... (checks notes)... beat the Chiefs but look hopeless against all the bottom feeders they had up early. Right, right.

[BishopMVP]

Zero'ing people's bets on QB's like Baker that didn't work is probably the right way to go, but yah that killed me too haha. If we do this next year and keep up the quarter zero'ing it really turns into a game you should look at schedules. (Plus the random Cooper Rush luck, which I'm now banking on to a point with Bailey Zappe from behind the 8 ball.)

[korme]

What do you mean, quarter zeroing?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by korme

What do you mean, quarter zeroing?

Taking the shares people had of Baker & Davis Mills & cashing them out for a cent each, then requiring a re-buy at $3 instead of just letting us keep XX shares instead of closing the position at a huge loss.

[BishopMVP]

I'm paying attention to QBR again and I'm beginning to dislike it again haha. Bailey Zappe has gone 27-36 287 2 td 1 int, which isn't great but is fairly solid. Being overrated by a QB rating of 104.7... and his QBR is 18.2. Sure he was playing the Lions at home, but I'm baffled how Trevor Lawrence (25-47 286 0/2), Skylar Thompson (19-33 166 0/1), Baker Mayfield (20-36 215 0/1) have higher ratings than him this week. Oh well, c'est la vie haha

[QuikSand]

So, it mostly boils down to whether you buy the logic that the yardage of a pass play can partially, but not fully, be attributed to the passer. If you buy that, then passers throwing short safe stuff and watching their playmakers add yardage deserve less credit for the downfield guys positioning the ball to them at the deeper catch points. Not everyone agrees, but that will definitely cause discord between surface stats and calculated outcomes, if you allow for those situations to be treated differently.

[BishopMVP]

I've seen enough QB's who throw bad short passes and ones who lead the receiver to think YAC ain't all on the WR... But it's more about the TD/INT ratio & YPA stuff. Just funny to see such a wide gulf - Zappe was an average game manager, but I dare you to find one person who thought Baker Mayfield had a good game Sunday ��

[korme]

Bump reminder to Bishop