2023 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

[QuikSand]

An earlier thread than the last couple of years, but I like having a place to dump some discussion. We're in the intermediate "prep" season now, 3yo horses are working through regional races, sorting out the real contenders, and we're finding out who has the ability to stretch out to longer distances, handle racing traffic, and so forth.

Let's have at it.

[QuikSand]

Biggest race tomorrow is the Rebel Stakes in Arkansas.

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/up...02/Rebel23.pdf

http://www.brisnet.com/content/2023/...d=py5pu4pxypl2

The #1 VERIFYING has the rail draw, wants to be forwardly placed, and with a win here would etch his name among the top 3-4 contenders for the year. I'm not sold they want him to roar out front, and #6 REINCARNATE should have something to say about that anyway, with a couple other early pace factors to his outside at 8 and 9. I expect an honest pace setup, and I'll probably be betting against the favorite here.

I really, really liked the Sham win by REINCARNATE, he didn't just get an easy front run, he was pressured the whole way, against a solid field, and held off a late charge after looking like he was going to get caaught. Really nice resilient ride.

I'm pulling for him to look sharp here again and make everyone respect Team Baffert XXXXX errr, Team Yakteen again.

[QuikSand]

https://www.drf.com/derby-watch

Marking for reference, since this will change as the year progresses...

As of Feb 23 they have it:

Arabian Knight
Bob Baffert or TBD
6-1

Forte
Todd Pletcher
8-1

Blazing Sevens
Chad Brown
15-1

Instant Coffee
Brad Cox
15-1

Tapit Trice
Todd Pletcher
15-1

Verifying
Brad Cox
15-1

[QuikSand]

We’ll, I couldn’t have read the pace much worse than I did. My 6 rated way back and ran late over a sloppy track, got interfered with but was only maybe second best anyway to the 17-1 winner, CONFIDENCE GAME.

[QuikSand]

…I was correct to fade the Cox pair, #1 and #5, though…both off the board at short prices. Sigh.

[QuikSand]

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/up.../LADerby23.pdf

We’ll get a look at INSTANT COFFEE, and see how legit he looks.

[QuikSand]

The UAE Derby is in a few minutes... each year it seems to launch one or two entries toward the Triple Crown. I have money thrown down in a hopeless pursuit of some absurd exotics... actually favoring a couple from Japan who are in here, which has become its own lane in recent years.

[QuikSand]

...sometimes you just stumble into it. I read an article suggesting that the Japan contingent was the best of the lot here, and tossed down a what-the-heck bet covering several of them for exotics.

Japanese horses ran 1-2-3-4 in the race, yikes. I haven't sorted out what paid what yet (on the road) but... dang, I must have rung the bell for at least a triple and more.

[Ksyrup]

I happened to watch that race while running this morning.

[QuikSand]

La Derby was a parade… early speed KINGSBARNS got a super slow pace and definitely couldn’t be caught. Pletcher.

https://youtu.be/Du6qP0gWHvA

[QuikSand]

Today is a huge prep race day. Last week we saw a great Florida Derby win from FORTE who should be the Kentucky Derby favorite.

Today there are prep races in NY, KY, and CA - all of which will send a top tier on to Louisville.

Kentucky Derby 2023, Daily Racing Form

[Ksyrup]

Looks like I'm going to Oaks this year. I could go to Derby too but that's too much back-to-back for us.

[Ksyrup]

Scratch that - looks like me and the missus are going to the Derby instead of Oaks! Never been before.

[Edward64]

Nice.

Will the missus wear the fancy hat & dress, and drink mint julep?

[Ksyrup]

She'll be wearing a hat and dress, yes. Not sure how fancy.

She's actually been to the Derby before, but it was working concessions in the infield - for about 10 hours serving beer and wine to muddy drunks - to raise money for one of our daughter's softball teams. She said it sucked. We'll be at a table this time so it should be a much better experience.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Scratch that - looks like me and the missus are going to the Derby instead of Oaks! Never been before.

This is one of my regrets about my time in Indy. Was only there 2 years but still regret not going to the Kentucky Derby

SI

[QuikSand]

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload..._Derby_PPs.pdf

Past Performance data through 4/24...

[weegeebored]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=169076&page=6

TimeformUS pace and speed figs from the prep races (for Oaks and Derby). CJ is arguably the best fig creator in the biz.

[QuikSand]

...interesting that he sees the Jeff Ruby Steaks win by TWO PHIL'S (and yes that apostrophe pains me) as among the more important prep races this year - top figs for the winner and other contenders. Hard to know what to do with that, tbh, most of the world is discounting that race mightily.

[Ksyrup]

Just think of it as a guy named Two Phil and it's his horse.

[weegeebored]

As you know, figs aren't everything QS. Pace shape, class, trips, etc will come into play. Also, Turfway is a synthetic track and maybe the horse took to it well. The Wood seems to be the worst prep; maybe someone from that race gets up for a piece but I can't see a winner from that group. Of course there's always a chance that a Giacomo or Rich Strike type surprises.

[Ksyrup]

It appears Wild On Ice is not only out of the Derby with an injury but may have been euthanized (unconfirmed report). Yikes.

[QuikSand]

confirmed

Report: Derby contender Wild On Ice is euthanized after injury

[QuikSand]

As always, I start trying to figure out the pace scenario for the actual field, even before we have the gate order.

This year there's a profound density of stalker/closer types among the consensus top contenders. Most of the biggest hitters want to sit back and make a run at the leaders. FORTE and PRACTICAL MOVE and TAPIT TRICE certainly have the talent to do so, and I won't rule either one out.

But who takes the lead after a quarter mile, and who presses that pace to keep things honest up front? WILD ON ICE would have been part of that equation, but alas. So... KINGSBARNS? (yes) REINCARNATE? VERIFYING? Maybe another longshot or two like JACE'S ROAD or CONFIDENCE GAME?

I often look to the pace scenario and try to find overlays and underlays. The thin read here is that there's too little talent up front and too much in the back end, and that a couple smart trainers/jocks will see that and push their guy more early than they otherwise would if this were just another prep race.

Rather than try to manufacture a winner out of some of the cheap speed (which we have most definitely seen happen, don't get me wrong) I will probably look that direction. Like, ANGEL OF EMPIRE fits the bill. Two back, he got dragged into a maybe crazy early pace setup in the Risen Star and still kicked home for the win... I'll rewatch that and see if it points to him running 5th instead of 12th in the big race.

Warming up to HIT SHOW being on my use-for-value list.

[sterlingice]

Kentucky Derby

Local celebrity and degenerate gambler Mattress Mac's latest promotion is on the Kentucky Derby. As my wife and I are in the market for a new bed, I thought about it for just a second until I nope'd out about how little I know about horse racing and how I don't want to be stuck with an overpriced bed. It's all fun and games if I could buy a bed for the expected return rate but it's all or nothing and in real money.


(total non-Derby related digression below this point, feel free to ignore)



As an aside, it was cute when he was doing this promotion with the Astros going to the World Series or University of Houston in the NCAA tournament or even Texas or A&M, if they were actually good at anything lately. But he's had something on practically every major sporting event the last couple of years and, while the idea of gambling as a hedge to offset your promotion makes sense if you're getting free advertising for it. It seems to make a lot less sense if you're always doing it as you don't have that benefit and you also probably have people who just wait a month until your next promotion to try and take advantage of it rather than buying it now so that's an unnecessary business risk for you. Meanwhile, I suppose if you're stealing away traffic from, say, Mattress Firm that's a win/win - either your bet hits and you break even or you make the couple hundred bucks that Mattress Firm would have made. But are you making more that way or losing more from your "regular" customers above - as he does have a devoted following here? I expect that WalMart has done the math and could tell you it down to the penny whereas I'm not sure a local spot would.

Then again, now that he's started injecting himself into local politics, I wonder if that's moved his Q rating from something like 80% positive "guy who opened up his store for people who needed a place to stay during Harvey when jerks like mega church douche Joel Osteen weren't" and 20% "overpriced furniture guy" to something more like 40% positive the first part, 30% "old man who is standing up for American freedom", and 30% "yeah, we kindof figured you were an old white dude and all that entails but you cared more about money than dog whistles about racism and immigration". So maybe he's made the same calculation that all the hucksters from Elon Musk to My Pillow Guy did.

SI

[QuikSand]

Another angle worth reading and digesting:

Ky. Derby formula: Fractions, figures trim contenders to 5 or 6

In particular, since the Derby is a longer distance than nearly any entry has ever run before, we'd like some insight into their ability to get that longer 1/14m distance. The manner in which they finished their last race is a useful, though not perfect, indicator there. Last 3 furlongs in under 38 seconds is, for some, a litmus test... if you finished more slowly than that your last time out, you won't get the Derby distance and can be thrown out.

If you subscribe, then toss BLAZING SEVENS and REINCARNATE.

The final furling is a less reliable measure, but it shines poorly onto MAGE and perhaps PRACTICAL MOVE (a major player on the tote board, but he clocked 13s even for his last furlong, right on the border of being a "strike" there).

[QuikSand]

John Shireffs, get your ass and your horse SKINNER to Kentucky pronto. I'm looking to lose some money on you.

[QuikSand]

More pace thoughts: I could see VERIFYING and KINGSBARNS battling for the early lead, based on position, but being clear of the field by a level or two. I feel like KINGSBARNS is the phony between the two of them, and VERIFYING is a legit two turn horse who, in this setup, might be able to run out to a reasonable nearly-47 second half mile pace.

I'd really like to see one sharp workout over the CD surface from VERIFYING, but right now I am open to him as a viable steal-it-on-the-lead entry in this fairly clunky field.

[QuikSand]

Might need to keep DERMA SOTOGAKE in the pace scenario, too... rewatched his Dubai win and he managed a nice win from the front end against a seemingly solid field. The Dubai shippers and 0-fer over a lot of entries, I don't even think they have hit the Board in the Derby, but...

[Ksyrup]

Post Positions for the Kentucky Derby pic.twitter.com/leSFQnnPsE

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) May 1, 2023

[QuikSand]

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...0429_Derby.pdf

[QuikSand]

The 10-1 morning line number on PRACTICAL MOVE has no real effect, but the media coverage does tend to affect early action in the exotic wagering, so it kinda does matter.

That seems disrespectful. He won both his preps this year, a G2 then G1, and put up speed figures (at least via BRIS) that are right there with the top players. Why wouldn't he be more like 5-1 right alongside TAPIT TRICE?

[QuikSand]

It's Tuesday so I have a lot of waffling left in me, but here's a trifecta ticket I have in mind right now:

Starts with my top tier plays
2 VERIFYING 15-1
5 TAPIT TRICE 5-1
15 FORTE 3-1
...then a second tier to use...
1 HIT SHOW 30-1
8 MAGE 15-1
9 SKINNER 20-1
13 TWO PHIL'S 12-1
17 DERMA SOTOGAKE 10-1

2 5 15
1 2 5 8 9 15
1 2 5 8 9 13 15 17
= x90 ticket

[QuikSand]

The 2023 Kentucky Derby TimeformUS Forecast - YouTube

[QuikSand]

...their sense is that even without a ton of natural early speed, they are forecasting a fast pace just because it's a powerful temptation to "go for the lead" if you think it might be there for the taking. I have sympathy for that theory, even though I will continue to use VERIFYING as a major part of my betting - and his path to victory is most likely to be as part of a non-hot early pace.

[Ksyrup]

Tell me what/who to bet. I trust you more than any experts I don't follow at all!

[Ksyrup]

I believe the 10 horse PRACTICAL MOVE is scratched. I found out through our office Derby pool. They are apparently on top of things.

[weegeebored]

Yes. Practical Move is out and Cyclone Mischief is in.

[Ksyrup]

Three horses scratched now.

[QuikSand]

SKINNER out. Had the best underlying indicators of a big late run, if you like that kind of thing.

[weegeebored]

What a fiasco this week has been. It's as if the powers-that-be want to end the sport as quickly as they can. The only thing I am going to wager on is which celebrity has the ugliest hat.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Tell me what/who to bet. I trust you more than any experts I don't follow at all!

Bet on TAPIT TRICE to win. Tell your friends he’s got great breeding for distance. He ought to make a strong run toward the end, and it’s fun to be holding a ticket and see your horse “make his move.”

You can tell people that DERMA SOTOGAKE might be a threat to just run to the front and never look back. But the Dubai shippers never do well so you’re staying away from him especially at only 9-1 or so.

Say you’re disappointed that SKINNER scratched, as he was one you liked at a big price. You can’t be proven wrong.

Then put together a fun 10c superfecta box on 5 horses you like and scream like hell about it.

Enjoy!

[GrantDawg]

My wife is always a fan of a Tapit horse.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

It's Tuesday so I have a lot of waffling left in me, but here's a trifecta ticket I have in mind right now:

Starts with my top tier plays
2 VERIFYING 15-1
5 TAPIT TRICE 5-1
15 FORTE 3-1
...then a second tier to use...
1 HIT SHOW 30-1
8 MAGE 15-1
9 SKINNER 20-1
13 TWO PHIL'S 12-1
17 DERMA SOTOGAKE 10-1

2 5 15
1 2 5 8 9 15
1 2 5 8 9 13 15 17
= x90 ticket

So, for once I am on the other side of the early/real money. Even with a few defections (that should have the effect of shortening the odds on the lower priced horses) most of my picks are looking like they will bring an even higher price than the morning line suggested.

As of now (Friday wagering is useful, but not definitive)...

2 VERIFYING 15-1 NOW 18
5 TAPIT TRICE 5-1 NOW 6
15 FORTE 3-1 NOW 7-2
...then a second tier to use...
1 HIT SHOW 30-1 NOW 35
8 MAGE 15-1 NOW 20
9 SKINNER 20-1 SCRATCHED
13 TWO PHIL'S 12-1 NOW 20
17 DERMA SOTOGAKE 10-1 NOW DOWN TO 8

...actually the price shakeup is really weird. The 17 and the 14 ANGEL OF EMPIRE seem to be the main downward movers.

[QuikSand]

I might replace SKINNER with MANDARIN HERO as a sprinkle-in for exotics. Am starting to move toward dumping FORTE from my top tier.

VERIFYING will be my main win ticket, and will figure into my wagers, but I'm not as sold on the steal-on-the-lead angle as I once was. Although, none of the also-eligible horses getting in due to the scratches should be involved in the early pace I don't think. (edit: CYCLONE MISCHIEF should be in the early mix, sorry)

20-1 on TWO PHIL'S is pretty tasty, even with that damned apostrophe. I would hate to see that name on the glass forever, though.

[QuikSand]

Great write up from the LC-J

2023 Kentucky Derby horses explained: What to know on favorites, draws

[Arles]

Interesting picks from Falica, he seems way against the grain. His three picks are 4, 18 and 22:

How to bet the Kentucky Derby: Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's expert picks, best bets | FOX Sports

[Arles]

The 22 (Madarin Hero) is pretty interesting. Ran the one US race and just lost to scratched Practical move. at 36-1, might be worth a flier

[weegeebored]

Forte scratched. There must be something in the Louisville water...

[QuikSand]

Yikes