FOF 2007 - The Highlander Challenge

[QuikSand]

2035 Initial Offseason

After a very successful season, we have a few shaky things cooking, and this offseason might prove to be pretty interesting, I think.

We have two retirements – LT Walt Holt and LB Darnell Abercrombie. Both have been fading rapidly anyhow, so there’s little loss of real capital there regardless.

We re-hire our scout, bring aboard a new offensive development coordinator, and are ready to start looking at the player market.

Here’s our list of walkyear players and free agents:

Front Office Football 2007
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Roster, Scout Overview
   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate  Future Estimate Cntrct 
Swartz, Jose            4   QB          9    51                51                1 yr.
Murphy, Timothy         15  QB          7    44                44                1 yr.
Montgomery, Timothy     80  FL          4    61                61                1 yr.
Barevics, Morris        17  FL          4    30                30                1 yr.
Collier, Matthew        73  LT          4    74                74                1 yr.
Watson, Skip            1   P           3    81                81                1 yr.
Dennis, Kent            13  K           3    17                17                1 yr.
Thomason, Junior        92  RDE         3    31                40                1 yr.
Douglas, Dusty          74  RDE         3    14                30                1 yr.
Doss, Myron             76  NT          3    20                46                1 yr.
Chancey, Kelly          50  WILB        10   60                60                1 yr.
Thornton, Lorenzo       26  SLB         4    30                42                1 yr.
Gerald, Ellis           59  WLB         8    43                43                1 yr.
Jarvis, Blaine          43  RCB         3    18                50                1 yr.
Terry, Ben              49  SS          9    73                73                1 yr.
Andrews, Xavier         47  FS          5    41                41                1 yr.

  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate  Future Estimate Cntrct 
Sullivan, Trent         32  RB          7    40                40                ---  
Murray, Lawrence        44  FB          4    62                62                ---  
Iadevaia, Brent         11  SE          4    38                41                ---  
Brierton, Pat           52  C           8    50                50                ---  
Garvin, Leon            64  LG          13   45                45                ---  
Stephens, Larry         78  RT          6    46                46                ---  
Harmon, Ronald          97  LDE         5    45                45                ---  
Devine, Kris            54  SILB        5    43                43                ---  
Shea, Billy             48  LCB         12   74                74                ---  

So, for the franchise tag, the question is whether we want to re-sign CB Billy Shea to another multi year deal. If so, then we don’t tag him and instead just put in our offer as a FA. If we do that, which I think I prefer, then I guess we look at LG Garvin as a possible tag recipient? RT Stephens? (He’s so mad he won’t stay any other way) No great options, really.

I decide to tag Larry Stephens, he’s a solid player, a strong affinity with our new OL leader Garvin (who may be back) and we may have the cap room to eat his $21m contract if he sticks for this year.


We do have one exploded contract – starting LB Kelly Chancey, who has been a very solid starter for us for some time. His deal sits at $44m this year, but it’s the only one blowup deal, so we will at least try to extend it away. He wants nearly $20m a year, which is pricey, but we have been leaving cap space unused the last few years, anyhow. I start out thinking this is just too much to spend on him – and we have a fairly young ILB in Kris Devine who is still improving, and he’s ready for the job, I think. But I also note that LB Hunter Harlow is going to be gone after this year, so I’m kind of stuck. I also note that we have quite a few solid players on last-year deals, and I’d prefer to keep a guy like S Ben Terry from hitting free agency. And how about QB Jose Swartz? LB Ellis Gerald? LT Matthew Collier? We are about to hit a wall with good players on contract.

Okay, we have to cut Chancey, and re-up with someone else. I decide that our contract renegotiation here will be with Ben Terry – we work it out for four seasons, and get him locked up by four more years.

[QuikSand]

2035 Free Agency

We have $21m in cap space, and another $21m tied up for the moment in RT Larry Stephens.

Reneg – SS Ben Terry, 4y $52m
RFA – FB Lawrance Murray, 3y $8.7m
1YR – RB Trent Sullivan, $2.4m
2YR -
3YR – LB Kris Devine, 7.8m
4YR – DE Ronald Harmon, $24m
5YR – LB Ralph Ramaswami, $80m (3y $10m)
6YR – C Pat Brierton, $166m (3y $16m)
7YR – CB Billy Shea, $238m (4y $78m)

CB Billy Shea is a standard candidate for a long term deal with a few real years. So, $28m up front, a $10m base salary for four years, and then a blowup – he’ll listen. If someone moves in and overpays him to get him away from us, we’ll live. Basically the same deal with C Pat Brierton, our starting C who’s an 8th year player.

LB Devine is pretty important to re-sign for us, since we are rapidly on our way to an empty roster at ILB. He’s still creeping, so we really think he makes a ton of sense to lock up and get into our lineup.

DE Ronald Harmon is an interesting case. Bound for superstardom, he suffered a massive injury, and fell to a shell of his former self. I am now re-signing him largely because he is fairly affordable, and still decent. Not a star, but good enough to start at DE and do so only $6m a year.

RT Larry Stephens is clearly occupying too much cap space, so our franchisee simply has to go.

I go after LB Ralph Ramaswamy, who is a solid-enough LB (an all pro just two seasons ago) who can move to the inside, and ought to give us two or three solid years. I think this is still a target position for the draft, but it’s worthwhile having a guy in store just in case.


Okay… so one twist that I certainly realized was possible was that CB Billy Shea would get signed away. I offered him a $35m signing bonus and four years at $11m each – but he instead accepted a deal for $36m over two years from Pittsburgh. It happens. Not often enough, really, but it happens. With the loss of Shea and ILB Chancey, we are going to see a serious talent and cohesion drop on our defense this year.

I put in a 7yr offer on DT Donnell Stuart, a solid run stopper who ought to be good enough to start if needed. That settles a modest roster need for us for a few years – he’ll be cheap for three, and ten potentially affordable for a fourth year.

That brings us to 48 players signed in advance of the draft – so we still have some slots to throw away if need be.

[QuikSand]

2035 Rookie Draft

Picking at 31, we will see most of the top shelf talent taken ahead of us, but we have team needs in the next couple years at (more or less in order of urgency) at: ILB, QB, G, RB, OLB, DE, and CB. We will likely be picking BPA from among the need positions the first couple rounds, unless someone sweeps me off my feet.

I had my eye on two guards I hoped might slip to the end of round one – but no dice, they go at picks 11 and 13, so I was **way** off there. But when we are up, not a single WR has yet been taken – and there’s a workout warrior sitting there who just has to be a ton better than his modest bars. Consider me swept, I had no clue this guy would fall to us.

Pick Pos Name                  Grd Adj 4TBAJP Dev O/U Scout  Comments
1.31 WR  Bryan Clawson         5.6 5.8 ! +!+- 52% VU  28/36  4.36 dash, 6.81 agil, high hopes
2.31 ILB Cedric Peters         4.8 4.7 + -+++ 42% HTR 14/29  Solid combine, develop all around
3.31 TE  Morris Warfield       5.0 4.4 +!++   25% VU  17/39  Hoping for all around star here
4.31 OLB Paul Ward             4.9 4.7 !!  -- 53% VU  26/40  Future starting blitzbacker?
5.31 LT  Clarence Shroeder     4.7 5.2 + + -  30% HTR 17/25  Standard creeper, run blocker, aff
6.31 OLB Mel Goodwin           4.2 4.0 !!+ -  31% VU  13/29  Another pass rusher prospect
7.31 LG  Travis Carter         3.8 3.6 ++-    10% NA   7/42  Best run blocker left, affinity

Once we got past the workout warrior QB, things fell into place okay – I had targeted the next three picks from out outset, and was glad to see LB Ward fall that far, he looks like a great fit for our willie slot. I’m pleased with the “fits” we got here, we’ll see if anyone holds up in training camp.

[QuikSand]

2035 Late Free Agency

We have an unexpected holdout, and that mucks up my late-season renegotiation planning.

From: Darren Newman

I have decided to hold out until I receive a new contract.

I believe I made a huge difference rushing the passer last season. I believe I'm very seriously underpaid, and will not report to camp without a new contract.

We can’t go into the season without him, but we have a flood of key players in walk years – so I will try to hold out and get him to knuckle under.


Last season in late free agency, we didn’t see much to like, and ended up just re-signing one of our own decent players. No such worries here. There are a load of quality guys out there, and my choice is whether to take a chance on an older DL who could be a major difference-maker, or just to go after a young player who could help us at a slot like ILB or OG.

I decide to make a serious play for DT Jake Rolfe, an 8th year guy who is rated 83/83 overall, and has been a four-time all pro already. He’s a monster, but missed half last season with a bad injury – he looks okay now, but might be dicey. We are trying to get into the mix without compromising our ability to sign our rookies under the cap – so there is no guarantee that our 2yr $44m deal will prevail, despite a $20m bonus. If it falls through with Rolfe, we will have options elsewhere, but I am hoping to bring him aboard and to lock him up as a starting DE for us. If Rolfe can come back and play all year, he will be an impact player wherever he lands.

Right away, Jacksonville had the lead for Rolfe with a 4yr, $73m offer – but mine is better per year overall. I just hope that my thin first year salary doesn’t kill me.

Week three is decision time, and he signs with… us! w00t!

I am a bit disappointed to see that he won’t easily move to the DE slot – it’s an 84% transition for him. So, I guess we will play him at DT – he has posted a PR% of 7 or better there, and as many as 15 sacks, so it’s not like he can’t be an impact player at DE for us.

[QuikSand]

2035 Training Camp Results
Tampa Bay Player Report (TB 2035c - TB 2035d)

Name	Pos	Team	TB 2035c Current	TB 2035c Future	TB 2035d Current	TB 2035d Future	Overall Current Change	Overall Future Change
Caballero, Jake	QB	Tampa	14	33	17 (3)	34 (1)	3	1
Murphy, Timothy	QB	Tampa	44	44	45 (1)	45 (1)	1	1
Swartz, Jose	QB	Tampa	50	50	51 (1)	51 (1)	1	1
Curson, Geoff	RB	Tampa	24	33	25 (1)	33 (0)	1	0
Daughtry, Kenneth	RB	Tampa	20	27	21 (1)	27 (0)	1	0
Kelly, Chester	RB	Tampa	46	46	46 (0)	46 (0)	0	0
Sullivan, Trent	RB	Tampa	39	39	40 (1)	40 (1)	1	1
Murray, Lawrence	FB	Tampa	61	62	64 (3)	64 (2)	3	2
Buffington, Travis	TE	Tampa	49	49	50 (1)	50 (1)	1	1
Edwards, Dustin	TE	Tampa	54	54	48 (-6)	48 (-6)	-6	-6
Warfield, Morris	TE	Tampa	17	39	20 (3)	39 (0)	3	0
Barevics, Morris	FL	Tampa	30	30	31 (1)	31 (1)	1	1
Clawson, Bryan	FL	Tampa	28	36	29 (1)	36 (0)	1	0
Czyz, Bryant	FL	Tampa	72	72	66 (-6)	66 (-6)	-6	-6
Montgomery, Timothy	FL	Tampa	61	61	61 (0)	61 (0)	0	0
Lindsay, Kendrick	SE	Tampa	54	54	54 (0)	54 (0)	0	0
Warren, Kevin	SE	Tampa	48	48	48 (0)	48 (0)	0	0
Brierton, Pat	C	Tampa	50	50	50 (0)	50 (0)	0	0
Carter, Travis	LG	Tampa	7	42	12 (5)	47 (5)	5	5
Donhoff, Maurice	LG	Tampa	32	32	32 (0)	32 (0)	0	0
Rodgers, Bart	RG	Tampa	76	76	71 (-5)	71 (-5)	-5	-5
Collier, Matthew	LT	Tampa	73	73	75 (2)	75 (2)	2	2
Money, Raymond	LT	Tampa	37	62	43 (6)	61 (-1)	6	-1
Schroeder, Clarence	LT	Tampa	17	25	20 (3)	30 (5)	3	5
Lester, Leland	RT	Tampa	48	48	49 (1)	49 (1)	1	1
Dennis, Kent	K	Tampa	16	16	16 (0)	16 (0)	0	0
Watson, Skip	P	Tampa	77	77	76 (-1)	76 (-1)	-1	-1
Harmon, Ronald	LDE	Tampa	46	46	47 (1)	47 (1)	1	1
Henry, Tracy	LDE	Tampa	14	27	15 (1)	27 (0)	1	0
Stuart, Donnell	LDT	Tampa	47	47	47 (0)	47 (0)	0	0
Doss, Myron	NT	Tampa	21	46	23 (2)	46 (0)	2	0
Fernyhough, Alonzo	NT	Tampa	60	60	60 (0)	60 (0)	0	0
Rolfe, Jake	NT	Tampa	83	83	78 (-5)	78 (-5)	-5	-5
Harden, Terrance	RDE	Tampa	19	19	16 (-3)	16 (-3)	-3	-3
Newman, Darren	RDE	Tampa	64	67	64 (0)	67 (0)	0	0
Thomason, Junior	RDE	Tampa	32	40	37 (5)	41 (1)	5	1
Samuels, Gabe	SLB	Tampa	57	57	60 (3)	60 (3)	3	3
Thornton, Lorenzo	SLB	Tampa	30	40	33 (3)	41 (1)	3	1
Harlow, Hunter	SILB	Tampa	46	46	46 (0)	46 (0)	0	0
Peters, Cedric	SILB	Tampa	14	29	19 (5)	34 (5)	5	5
Ramaswami, Ralph	SILB	Tampa	53	53	44 (-9)	44 (-9)	-9	-9
Devine, Kris	WILB	Tampa	45	45	45 (0)	45 (0)	0	0
Gerald, Ellis	WLB	Tampa	43	43	36 (-7)	36 (-7)	-7	-7
Goodwin, Mel	WLB	Tampa	13	29	20 (7)	40 (11)	7	11
Ward, Paul	WLB	Tampa	26	40	30 (4)	38 (-2)	4	-2
Booker, Courtney	LCB	Tampa	52	58	65 (13)	65 (7)	13	7
Madison, Harvey	LCB	Tampa	37	37	32 (-5)	32 (-5)	-5	-5
Pujols, George	LCB	Tampa	52	52	48 (-4)	48 (-4)	-4	-4
Carlisle, Omar	RCB	Tampa	69	69	70 (1)	70 (1)	1	1
Jarvis, Blaine	RCB	Tampa	17	44	20 (3)	45 (1)	3	1
Terry, Ben	SS	Tampa	73	73	69 (-4)	69 (-4)	-4	-4
Andrews, Xavier	FS	Tampa	41	41	41 (0)	41 (0)	0	0
Upshaw, Spencer	FS	Tampa	33	48	38 (5)	48 (0)	5	0
Woodson, Rusty	FS	Tampa	55	55	49 (-6)	49 (-6)	-6	-6

[QuikSand]

Here’s the summary of the big movers:

Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name                          Team             Pos	Change
Ramaswami, Ralph              Tampa            SILB	-9
Gerald, Ellis                 Tampa            WLB	-7
Edwards, Dustin               Tampa            TE	-6
Woodson, Rusty                Tampa            FS	-6
Czyz, Bryant                  Tampa            FL	-6
Madison, Harvey               Tampa            LCB	-5
Rodgers, Bart                 Tampa            RG	-5
Rolfe, Jake                   Tampa            NT	-5
Terry, Ben                    Tampa            SS	-4
Pujols, George                Tampa            LCB	-4


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name                          Team             Pos	Change
Goodwin, Mel                  Tampa            WLB	11
Booker, Courtney              Tampa            LCB	7
Schroeder, Clarence           Tampa            LT	5
Peters, Cedric                Tampa            SILB	5
Carter, Travis                Tampa            LG	5
Samuels, Gabe                 Tampa            SLB	3
Murray, Lawrence              Tampa            FB	2
Collier, Matthew              Tampa            LT	2

Hey, that’s a much better-looking list of pluses than we have seen in a while, eh? LB Mel Goodwin gives us a +11? Been a long time since I saw a move that big. And CB Booker’s big move is right on time, now that he is suddenly our starting LCB. Rookie LB Peters gives us justification for the early pick with a +5 of his own, too, that’s solid.

I confess, I am stunned by WR Clawson’s failure to break out here, though. I though he was a +5 for sure, hopefully better. This looks like it’s going to turn out to be a solid draft anyhow, but I did want more from him, I confess.


On the bad side, DE Darren Newman is still holding out, and he’s asking for a monster contract, over $27m a year. I don’t see how I can pay that much for him, so I guess our only choice here is to wait him out. If he doesn’t come back, I think my backup play is to shift DT Rolfe over to play in his DE slot – not what I had in mind when I signed him, but likely our best short term option to cover for the holdout.

[QuikSand]

2035 Season

Benchmarks:

Roster Rating – 88 (3rd)
Cohesion – 100-99-67-90

My predictions:

Another solid year from Swartz – maybe tops the 30 TD mark for first time?
RB Chester Kelly up to 4 yards per carry, but just barely, for 1,000 yards
Jake Rolfe leads team in sacks and hurries, wherever he plays
Defense slips from elite level, but is still above average against run and pass
We are not a #1 seed, but we do win 11 games and the division


Season narrative:

We open the season with DE Newman still holding out. I am using DT Rolfe in his starting DE slot, and he delivers in the opening game with 4 tackles and a sack. We get off to a decent start at 3-2, but we simply do not have the luster from last season. Then Newman decides to come back, and we can put together the defensive front the way I had it in mind.

We reel of three straight wins, two of them behind QB Murphy, to get to 6-2 at the midpoint. Two more wins, and we seem to have started to cruise – a 30-6 win over Carolina gives us a four game lead in the division already, and we are already plotting our playoff seeding and pathway.

With two games left in the season, we are 12-2, but have lost WR Bryant Czyz to an injury for the year. We are tripped up in our finale with a few nicked-up starters resting, but still finish with a solid 13-3 record, another #1 seed, and a statistically superb season once again.

Front Office Football 2007
2035 Summary for Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   
Year                2035                                      
Record              13-3                                      
Winning Pct.        .812                                      
All-Time            240-240                                   
Winning Pct.        .500                                      
Playoffs            8-9                                       
Playoff Visits      10                                        
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Shaun Grier                               
Record              38-13                                     
Winning Pct.        .745                                      
Off. Coord.         J. Helmuth                                
Def. Coord.         B. McKenzie                               
   
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         35.4      1           
Rushing Yards           134.4     4           
Yards Per Carry         3.79      31          
Pass Attempts           28.4      31          
Completions             17.8      29 (T)      
Completion Pct.         62.6      7           
Passing Yards           266.5     4           
Yards Per Attempt       9.39      1           
Yards Per Catch         15.01     1           
Total Yardage Gained    392.7     1           
3rd Down Conversions    50.2      1           
Points Per Game         27.6      2           
Pass Rush Pct.          25.6      2           
Pass Defense Pct.       54.9      16          
Turnovers               23        11 (T)      
Turnover Margin         +8        4 (T)       
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         22.8      3           
Rushing Yards           96.9      2           
Yards Per Carry         4.25      14          
Pass Attempts           36.7      27          
Completions             20.6      22 (T)      
Completion Pct.         56.0      7 (T)       
Passing Yards           214.1     7           
Yards Per Attempt       5.84      2           
Yards Per Catch         10.41     1           
Total Yardage Gained    297.9     1           
3rd Down Conversions    34.4      4           
Points Per Game         15.9      1           
Pass Rush Pct.          18.2      5           
Pass Defense Pct.       53.6      18          
Turnovers               31        3 (T)       
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     23    CAR           7       
2     24    JAX           13      
3     17    at PHI        34      
4     17    at ATL        0       
5     35    at MIN        38      
6     21    NOS           6       
7     34    at DET        21      
9     44    GBY           6       
10    37    CHI           21      
11    30    at CAR        6       
12    17    at LRK        3       
13    20    SFO           16      
14    37    IND           14      
15    27    at NOS        24      
16    31    at TEN        16      
17    27    ATL           30      
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
4 J. Swartz             QB    364   230   3517  9.66  33    13    110.3   
15 T. Murphy            QB    75    47    643   8.57  5     1     106.7   
**Team                  ---   454   284   4264  9.39  38    15    107.5   
$$Opp                   ---   587   329   3426  5.84  17    17    70.7    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
38 C. Kelly             RB    314   1163  3.70  7     6       
32 T. Sullivan          RB    191   742   3.88  6     4       
4 J. Swartz             QB    56    243   4.34  0     2       
**Team                  ---   567   2151  3.79  13    18      
$$Opp                   ---   365   1550  4.25  7     29      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
8 B. Czyz               WR    96    58    1019  17.57 10.61 2     9       
89 K. Lindsay           WR    87    52    848   16.31 9.75  5     11      
80 T. Montgomery        WR    84    44    769   17.48 9.15  3     9       
84 D. Edwards           TE    56    40    507   12.68 9.05  2     5       
81 K. Warren            WR    45    28    523   18.68 11.62 4     1       
44 L. Murray            FB    31    28    209   7.46  6.74  1     1       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
49 B. Terry             S     82    39    2.0   1     2     8     80.6    
91 G. Samuels           OLB   60    20    1.0   4     1     8     77.9    
39 O. Carlisle          CB    51    14    0.0   0     7     7     81.5    
93 R. Ramaswami         ILB   47    27    1.5   1     1     2     77.8    
30 R. Woodson           S     46    10    0.0   1     2     7     80.4    
20 C. Booker            CB    46    12    1.0   0     1     15    80.4    
75 J. Rolfe             DT    45    12    3.0   13    0     0     81.9    
59 E. Gerald            OLB   40    20    10.5  20    0     2     80.2    
54 K. Devine            ILB   38    18    2.0   1     0     1     74.3    
42 G. Pujols            CB    37    6     0.0   0     1     5     77.2    
96 H. Harlow            ILB   31    10    0.0   1     0     0     71.5    
97 R. Harmon            DE    31    15    5.0   15    0     0     81.0    
72 D. Newman            DE    21    6     5.5   24    0     0     80.8    
50 C. Peters            ILB   18    2     0.0   0     0     0     59.1    
79 A. Fernyhough        DT    17    4     1.0   4     0     0     82.1    
92 J. Thomason          DE    16    3     1.0   5     0     0     81.7    

Well, we didn’t get our running backs up to 4 yards a carry this year, but we did get our QB up to 30 TD passes, and that’s only playing 14 games. I have no idea why the passing game picked it up a bit this year, but that seems to be what happened, in any case. Bryant Czyz had another solid season, but a serious injury hurts us for these playoffs and maybe beyond, if it had lasting effects.

The defense was solid – our pass rush was still pretty elite overall – but not ferocious like last season. CB Booker had a very solid first full season as a starter, and he is going to be really good for us. DE Newman came back and played well, and the front seven were solid. But our teamwide pass defense numbers were way down – with shaky numbers from guys like LB Devine and Harlow, suggesting we were a little bit soft in shallow coverage. Some work to be done there, but it wasn’t bad.

[QuikSand]

2035 Postseason Narrative:

We have one major injury on top of Czyz – safety Rusty Woodson will be playing hurt, but in the lineup. Past that we are in good shape.

Divisional Playoff: Washington (11-6) at Tampa Bay (13-3)

I have no idea what happened here, but it’s a field position battle early, and the Skins et a FG, and then a TD to lead by 10 at the half. We just cannot get anything going, and this team who posted 27.6 points per game on the regular season ends up with a total whiff when it counts, and cannot even muster a single point. Skins 17, Bucs 0, goodbye.


Wow.

[QuikSand]

2035 Season Coda

We close the season with a new contract for QB Jose Swartz, keeping the continuity there, and locking him up for around $14m a season, which is under-market for a top tier starter, which he is by the numbers if not the red bars.

Next year is going to be a big one – we have a load of good players whose contracts are ending, and if we lose one or two quality guys from this team without replacing them, we could slide back substantially in terms of overall talent. And I’m seeing some gigantic contract demands coming from guys like LT Matthew Collier, DE Darren Newman, and WR Timothy Montgomery – so perhaps we will see a cap crunch in the mix as well. And the potential to lose WR Czyz would be a major transition for us as well.

[MIJB#19]

What happened to Bryan Clawson? I don't see him in the top (4 wide) receivers list. Even with his current overall grade of 'bars', I think you could have justified making him the #3 behind Czyz and Montgomery receiver based on his 1st round status. Or does he really look so horrid,being too ugly to believe in the beauty hidden inside the beast?

[QuikSand]

Yeah, Clawson had a net zero in training camp... and as a guy with pretty modest ratings to start out with, that made him a real afterthought for us. When Czyz got hurt late in the season, he moved into the rotation, but he simply isn't a guy who gets much action on this roster... I let the staff do the depth charting, and a 28/36 guy just isn't going to get much playing time unless other players get out of the way.

Maybe he will get more action in his sophomore season...

[QuikSand]

Have been pretty busy this week - though I might have some time Wed to do something with this, but did not. Don't know where this lies... my next substantial pocket of free time may turn out to be tonight, and I have no idea if this is on my list of things to get into. *shurg*

[QuikSand]

2036 Initial Offseason

Well, this is our first season with a fairly lengthy list of retirements:

DE Terrance Harden – affinity lyncphin and occasional reserve pass rusher
LG Maurice Donhoff – former standout guard, had slipped but started last year
WR Kendrick Lindsay – starting split end, had been steady but not outstanding
WR Kevin Warren – veteran signing had been solid #4 receiver for a couple years

So, nothing earth-shaking, but it does leave us very thing at WR all of a sudden, and with a first round pick there from last year draft who looks like he might have just been a whiff.

We also have a couple of contracts that necessitate releases:

ILB Hunter Harlow – decent tackler and run stopper, shaky coverage skills
TE Dustin Edwards – solid veteran starter, but replaceable as he declines

And with that, we are about $49m below the cap – about 17%. We have 35 players signed, and since our rules basically authorize up to 16 additions, we are a bit shy of the anticipated 53 player target. So, we may have some work to do, one way or another – not that playing through this season with only 51 players would be a major hardship.

I bring about a more well-rounded scout – scratching an itch that has been at me a while. Here is his assessment of our walk year and free agent players:

  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate  Future Estimate Cntrct 
Caballero, Jake         18  QB          3    17                35                1 yr.
Curson, Geoff           28  RB          3    25                33                1 yr.
Daughtry, Kenneth       41  RB          3    21                27                1 yr.
Buffington, Travis      88  TE          6    49                49                1 yr.
Rodgers, Bart           55  RG          11   71                71                1 yr.
Henry, Tracy            99  LDE         3    16                28                1 yr.
Newman, Darren          72  RDE         4    66                66                1 yr.
Rolfe, Jake             75  NT          9    78                78                1 yr.
Fernyhough, Alonzo      79  NT          7    60                60                1 yr.
Samuels, Gabe           91  SLB         4    59                59                1 yr.

  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate  Future Estimate Cntrct 
Murphy, Timothy         15  QB          8    45                45                ---  
Sullivan, Trent         32  RB          8    40                40                ---  
Montgomery, Timothy     80  FL          5    61                61                ---  
Barevics, Morris        17  FL          5    31                31                ---  
Collier, Matthew        73  LT          5    76                76                ---  
Watson, Skip            1   P           4    73                73                ---  
Dennis, Kent            13  K           4    15                15                ---  
Thomason, Junior        92  RDE         4    38                41                ---  
Doss, Myron             76  NT          4    24                46                ---  
Thornton, Lorenzo       26  SLB         5    33                42                ---  
Gerald, Ellis           59  WLB         9    36                36                ---  
Jarvis, Blaine          43  RCB         4    20                44                ---  
Andrews, Xavier         47  FS          6    41                41                ---  

Okay, first the franchise tag. I know what LT Collier was looking for in his contract last year – he might be a guy we simply cannot afford going forward. WR Montgomery is a guy I want to sign long term, intending to start him at SE this year. So, we really don’t have anyone who fits this slot perfectly well, assuming we think we can ink LT Collier in open free agency. I decide to take my chances – it’s one more open roster spot this year, but I think we will be okay there. No tag.

[QuikSand]

2036 Free Agency

A bunch of key decisions here. I think the first move we will undertake is an extension with DE Darren Newman. He missed a few games last year, and his contract demands have come down somewhat – he will still be expensive, but it’s not totally out of reach. Plus, I can live with his long term deal as he offers it, giving me more flexibility for my one later-season reneg. Done – six year deal, lock him up.

DT Jake Rolfe is a guy I think we will let expire, and then perhaps tag for a season or two as long as he remains productive and healthy. Solid player for sure, I’m just working the angles with the contracts. We can afford his $30m hit this year, and we’ll work on next year next year.


With that, we are looking at our free agents. I really want to bring back WR Montgomery, and since we only have two WRs signed to any contract, it’s pretty urgent that we do so. He is looking for a 5yr deal, which is very good news – that can be a real 5yr offer this time, rather than a 3yr offer with a time bomb imbedded. I load the deal with bonus money, and try to get him fairly cheap and roll the dice on a future injury.

We really have two choices with our one RFA re-signing – backup DE Junior Thomason, or our stud punter Skip Watson. I’m not wild about investing capital into a punter, but extending this guy keeps us from having to use a draft pick on another guy, while we might be okay at DL as it stands. I work out a new deal with Watson, who is, after all, a very highly rated player.


That gets us to about $33m left to spend under this year’s cap. And LT Matthew Collier is the defining player for us. Either we sign him, and work on an economy budget for the rest of the team – or we let him walk, and look for places to spread our cap space around. He is a very solid looking player – and while I have a couple solid LT prospects behind him, none project to look like him at any point, period. We have been trying to do better on the ground game – tough to see a better player to keep us on that track than Collier. I decide to put in a huge offer to him, and try to lock him up for 4 years. Our offer eats up $20m under this year’s salary cap.

Reneg – DE Darren Newman, 6y $104m
RFA – P Skip Watson, 3y $7m
1YR -
2YR – RB Jack Wright, $5m
3YR – DE Junior Thomason, $5.4m (minsal)
4YR – LT Matthew Collier, $105m ($40m bonus)
5YR – WR Timothy Montgomery, $65m ($25m bonus)
6YR – QB Timothy Murphy, $115m (3yr minsal)
7YR – WR Vernon Berry, $198m (3y $14m)

I was surprised to see QB Timothy Murphy at some point slip upward from “angry” to “unhappy” and therefore open to accepting a contract offer from us. I offer him three years at minsal, with three more at the end to slot it into the 6yr offer slot. That relieves me of searching through the dregs and the rookie class for a backup this season.

RB Jack Wright is a pretty good 5th year guy who has been productive for Baltimore in limited duty, and I’m intrigued enough to offer him two years. He has enough endurance to carry our main load – we’ll see how well he does as a #1 back instead of a backup.

By the way, I’m basically convinced that LB Ellis Gerald is out of gas, so I’m not offering him a new contract. Have two sophomores who look ready to step into the WLB role, and we will give them their shot, and let Gerald walk.


With these signees, we are up to 42 players, and have our roster nearly legal – we are only short a kicker. We have holes to fill, to be sure, but we got most of our crisis spots addressed via free agency.

[QuikSand]

2036 Rookie Draft

Once again, we are picking late, and will settle for what we see. I figure our short term needs are more or less at: WR, G, DE, OLB, TE, S, CB, ILB. Again, I expect the top picks to go to BPA among those positions – though I think we do need to land at least one playable WR in this draft.

With our top pick, we have a quandary – WR has been depleted, and the guy I liked as a 2nd rounder or so is now listed 3rd among the WRs on the big board. Meanwhile, a LG my scout likes is sitting there, and looks like a perfect need fit. I think that’s the safe pick here.

When my target WR is still there a few picks ahead of us, I pull the trigger, trade away our 3rd rounder, and pick up a couple extra late rounders, which we can use this year.

Pick Pos Name                  Grd Adj 4TBAJP Dev O/U Scout  Comments
1.30 LG  Mickey Colombo        5.7 5.4 –skip- 18% VU  30/76  28 sol test, scout pushed the pick
2.25 WR  Raymond Shipp         4.8 5.0 +!  -+ 19% VU  17/36  another project guy get a chance
4.23 TE  Allen Chiaverini      4.7 4.1 -+-++  23% VO  21/58  yes, ignoring my scout again at TE
4.30 K   Cris Joseph           6.1 3.6 +++!+  40% NA  39/60  have to take one, why not the best
5.30 WR  J.T. Witt             4.4 4.6  + - + 26% HTR 17/50  return specialist, some combines
6.27 SS  Craig Ventura         3.9 3.7 + + -+  9% VU  10/28  no bars, no dev, but love combines
6.30 SLB Everett Alexander     4.0 3.8    --- 65% NA  15/46  well dev, good coverage, sp tmr
7.26 QB  Sammie Dixon          3.6 4.1  - !-! 16% UR   5/22  7.24 agil, 91 pos drill… odd mix
7.30 RB  Stanley Cooper        4.3 4.6   - ++ 36% HTR 21/31  10-05 jump, good pos drill, stab

The one guy I was watching a long time was S Ventura, exactly the sort who creeps, but still never contributes for a team like this. So, to offset, I fiddled with a few oddball filler picks here -– LB Alexander was basically a most-developed-guy at the position, and RB Cooper is basically a curiosity pick due to his two good ratings at odd spots like the broad jump and position drill. QB Dixon is also a guy I interviewed for his great agility drill, and my scout liked him, so worth a late round flier. Hell, my best drafted QB came from round six…why not one more?

[QuikSand]

2036 Late Free Agency

Incidentally, QB Sammie Dixon turns down the cheap contract offer, as did kicker Cris Dixon. Last year the only guy who did that was my LB Goodwin, and he had a monster training camp. Maybe there’s a connection. A breakout camp from Dixon would not shock me. I’ll take note.


With our last FA contract, I shore up the secondary a bit with CB Jamie Palmer, an affinity guy who can play a bit for us in nickel and dime coverages if need be. Nothing too special, but we are right up against the camp and I lack the space to afford more glamorous players.

[QuikSand]

2036 Training Camp
Tampa Bay Player Report (TB 2036c - TB 2036d)

Name	Pos	Team	TB 2036c Current	TB 2036c Future	TB 2036d Current	TB 2036d Future	Overall Current Change	Overall Future Change
Caballero, Jake	QB	Tampa	16	33	19 (3)	34 (1)	3	1
Dixon, Sammie	QB	Tampa	5	22	8 (3)	24 (2)	3	2
Murphy, Timothy	QB	Tampa	45	45	45 (0)	45 (0)	0	0
Swartz, Jose	QB	Tampa	51	51	64 (13)	64 (13)	13	13
Cooper, Stanley	RB	Tampa	21	31	24 (3)	34 (3)	3	3
Curson, Geoff	RB	Tampa	24	31	26 (2)	31 (0)	2	0
Daughtry, Kenneth	RB	Tampa	23	28	25 (2)	28 (0)	2	0
Kelly, Chester	RB	Tampa	47	47	47 (0)	47 (0)	0	0
Wright, Jack	RB	Tampa	56	56	56 (0)	56 (0)	0	0
Murray, Lawrence	FB	Tampa	63	63	63 (0)	63 (0)	0	0
Buffington, Travis	TE	Tampa	47	47	48 (1)	48 (1)	1	1
Chiaverini, Alvin	TE	Tampa	21	58	26 (5)	54 (-4)	5	-4
Warfield, Morris	TE	Tampa	18	39	21 (3)	39 (0)	3	0
Berry, Vernon	FL	Tampa	49	49	49 (0)	49 (0)	0	0
Clawson, Bryan	FL	Tampa	31	35	33 (2)	35 (0)	2	0
Czyz, Bryant	FL	Tampa	64	64	61 (-3)	61 (-3)	-3	-3
Montgomery, Timothy	FL	Tampa	62	62	62 (0)	62 (0)	0	0
Witt, J.T.	FL	Tampa	17	50	18 (1)	43 (-7)	1	-7
Shipp, Raymond	SE	Tampa	17	36	21 (4)	40 (4)	4	4
Brierton, Pat	C	Tampa	51	51	51 (0)	51 (0)	0	0
Carter, Travis	LG	Tampa	20	47	25 (5)	47 (0)	5	0
Colombo, Mickey	LG	Tampa	30	76	37 (7)	74 (-2)	7	-2
Rodgers, Bart	RG	Tampa	71	71	69 (-2)	69 (-2)	-2	-2
Collier, Matthew	LT	Tampa	74	74	74 (0)	74 (0)	0	0
Schroeder, Clarence	LT	Tampa	21	32	24 (3)	33 (1)	3	1
Lester, Leland	RT	Tampa	49	49	50 (1)	50 (1)	1	1
Money, Raymond	RT	Tampa	39	60	47 (8)	61 (1)	8	1
Joseph, Cris	K	Tampa	39	60	40 (1)	58 (-2)	1	-2
Watson, Skip	P	Tampa	73	73	71 (-2)	71 (-2)	-2	-2
Harmon, Ronald	LDE	Tampa	48	48	48 (0)	48 (0)	0	0
Henry, Tracy	LDE	Tampa	14	22	16 (2)	22 (0)	2	0
Stuart, Donnell	LDT	Tampa	47	47	44 (-3)	44 (-3)	-3	-3
Fernyhough, Alonzo	NT	Tampa	61	61	54 (-7)	54 (-7)	-7	-7
Rolfe, Jake	NT	Tampa	78	78	79 (1)	79 (1)	1	1
Newman, Darren	RDE	Tampa	65	65	65 (0)	65 (0)	0	0
Thomason, Junior	RDE	Tampa	38	41	43 (5)	43 (2)	5	2
Alexander, Everett	SLB	Tampa	15	46	15 (0)	36 (-10)	0	-10
Samuels, Gabe	SLB	Tampa	61	61	62 (1)	62 (1)	1	1
Peters, Cedric	SILB	Tampa	21	35	26 (5)	39 (4)	5	4
Ramaswami, Ralph	SILB	Tampa	44	44	11 (-33)	11 (-33)	-33	-33
Devine, Kris	WILB	Tampa	45	45	35 (-10)	35 (-10)	-10	-10
Goodwin, Mel	WLB	Tampa	24	44	27 (3)	44 (0)	3	0
Ward, Paul	WLB	Tampa	32	37	37 (5)	37 (0)	5	0
Booker, Courtney	LCB	Tampa	67	67	67 (0)	67 (0)	0	0
Madison, Harvey	LCB	Tampa	32	32	27 (-5)	27 (-5)	-5	-5
Pujols, George	LCB	Tampa	48	48	43 (-5)	43 (-5)	-5	-5
Carlisle, Omar	RCB	Tampa	69	69	69 (0)	69 (0)	0	0
Palmer, Jamie	RCB	Tampa	27	35	31 (4)	36 (1)	4	1
Terry, Ben	SS	Tampa	69	69	66 (-3)	66 (-3)	-3	-3
Upshaw, Spencer	FS	Tampa	40	49	46 (6)	50 (1)	6	1
Ventura, Craig	FS	Tampa	10	28	14 (4)	35 (7)	4	7
Woodson, Rusty	FS	Tampa	49	49	46 (-3)	46 (-3)	-3	-3

[QuikSand]

The condensed version:

Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name                          Team             Pos	Change
Ramaswami, Ralph              Tampa            SILB	-33
Alexander, Everett            Tampa            SLB	-10
Devine, Kris                  Tampa            WILB	-10
Witt, J.T.                    Tampa            FL	-7
Fernyhough, Alonzo            Tampa            NT	-7
Madison, Harvey               Tampa            LCB	-5
Pujols, George                Tampa            LCB	-5
Chiaverini, Alvin             Tampa            TE	-4
Stuart, Donnell               Tampa            LDT	-3
Woodson, Rusty                Tampa            FS	-3


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name                          Team             Pos	Change
Swartz, Jose                  Tampa            QB	13
Ventura, Craig                Tampa            FS	7
Peters, Cedric                Tampa            SILB	4
Shipp, Raymond                Tampa            SE	4
Cooper, Stanley               Tampa            RB	3
Thomason, Junior              Tampa            RDE	2
Dixon, Sammie                 Tampa            QB	2

Woo boy, trouble at LB. This pushes still-creeping Cedric Peters right into a must-start position, and the unexpected hit to WILB Devine stings a bit, as he will be right in there alongside young Peters.

The big plus news here is a veteran breakout from QB Swartz, which is obviously nice – he’s now looking like a pretty serious starter, after all my initial reservations. He will get help from young WR Raymond Shipp who looks to develop into a quality starter for us. And a +3 from RB Cooper… hey, that might work, too.

So rookie safety Craig Ventura jumps from 10/28 to 14/35 – well, that’s nice – but will he get enough development to become useful? Tough to say.

[QuikSand]

2036 Season

Benchmarks:

Roster Rating – 100 (85 is next)
Cohesion – 100/98-100/98-78-84

My predictions:

Swartz with his ratings boom posts 4,000yds, 33 TD and only 15 Int
Running game a bit better behind Jack Wright, he posts maybe 4.4 ypc
Defense slips a bit, pass rush down, but still average
That’s good enough for 12 wins and another bye week

Season narrative:

We barrel off to two strong wins to open up, and then fall flat in a 34-9 loss at Detroit. Swartz is still playing well, though we are suffering a bit from interceptions… even when we get to 4-1, he is actually upside down at 7/8 on the year in his ratio.

Halfway home, we are on track with my prediction, sitting at 6-2. Timothy Montgomery, starting at the split end position, is on track for a big season with 627 yards. Jack Wright is giving us our usual result of late – he’s up to 600+ yards, but is under 4 ypc. I will try to get rookie Stanley Cooper in the mix a bit.

We wrap things up right on target, with the 12-4 record I expected, and parsed out perfectly into four 3-1 season segments. Not a bad season, overall. However, we have to play in the wild card round, as two NFC teams posted 13-3 records.

Front Office Football 2007
2036 Summary for Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   
Year                2036                                      
Record              12-4                                      
Winning Pct.        .750                                      
All-Time            252-244                                   
Winning Pct.        .508                                      
Playoffs            8-10                                      
Playoff Visits      11                                        
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Shaun Grier                               
Record              50-18                                     
Winning Pct.        .735                                      
Off. Coord.         J. Helmuth                                
Def. Coord.         B. McKenzie                               
   
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         32.8      3 (T)       
Rushing Yards           132.3     6           
Yards Per Carry         4.04      21          
Pass Attempts           27.9      29          
Completions             16.4      29 (T)      
Completion Pct.         59.0      20          
Passing Yards           239.9     14          
Yards Per Attempt       8.61      1           
Yards Per Catch         14.60     1           
Total Yardage Gained    365.5     7           
3rd Down Conversions    48.1      2           
Points Per Game         25.4      7 (T)       
Pass Rush Pct.          22.9      6           
Pass Defense Pct.       54.8      17 (T)      
Turnovers               31        22 (T)      
Turnover Margin         -14       28          
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         25.8      11 (T)      
Rushing Yards           102.4     9           
Yards Per Carry         3.97      10          
Pass Attempts           33.1      9 (T)       
Completions             20.0      15 (T)      
Completion Pct.         60.4      21          
Passing Yards           207.3     1           
Yards Per Attempt       6.26      6           
Yards Per Catch         10.37     1           
Total Yardage Gained    293.8     4           
3rd Down Conversions    35.6      7           
Points Per Game         16.4      1           
Pass Rush Pct.          16.2      1           
Pass Defense Pct.       69.9      29          
Turnovers               17        29 (T)      
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     33    at NOS        10      
2     24    at KCY        13      
3     9     at DET        34      
4     20    at WAS        16      
5     41    DAL           10      
6     17    at ATL        20      
7     30    PHI           10      
9     41    at NYK        10      
10    38    NOS           13      
11    7     CAR           26      
12    23    SDO           18      
13    41    ARI           15      
14    24    at DEN        10      
15    19    ATL           13      
16    16    OAK           24      
17    23    at CAR        20      
$$WC        DAL                   
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
4 J. Swartz             QB    442   261   3819  8.64  28    21    88.6    
**Team                  ---   446   263   3839  8.61  28    21    88.4    
$$Opp                   ---   530   320   3317  6.26  17    8     82.8    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
35 J. Wright            RB    346   1302  3.76  12    6        
4 J. Swartz             QB    68    358   5.26  2     3       
38 C. Kelly             RB    55    283   5.15  3     2       
27 S. Cooper            RB    49    161   3.29  0     0       
**Team                  ---   524   2116  4.04  17    18      
$$Opp                   ---   413   1639  3.97  7     20      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
80 T. Montgomery        WR    126   66    1168  17.70 9.27  11    11      
8 B. Czyz               WR    94    47    944   20.09 10.04 8     7       
82 V. Berry             WR    66    45    604   13.42 9.15  3     2       
88 T. Buffington        TE    42    24    297   12.38 7.07  4     3       
35 J. Wright            RB    25    21    213   10.14 8.52  0     0       
83 R. Shipp             WR    28    16    233   14.56 8.32  2     1       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
91 G. Samuels           OLB   105   28    8.0   7     2     9     74.9    
49 B. Terry             S     102   43    1.0   0     0     11    78.3    
50 C. Peters            ILB   70    26    0.0   1     1     7     79.6    
23 S. Upshaw            S     52    14    0.0   0     0     3     72.6    
75 J. Rolfe             DT    50    21    3.5   10    0     0     80.9    
39 O. Carlisle          CB    50    9     0.0   1     2     14    79.4    
58 P. Ward              OLB   44    17    8.5   11    0     1     78.9    
42 G. Pujols            CB    39    12    2.0   0     0     2     73.9    
20 C. Booker            CB    36    17    1.0   2     1     20    86.5    
72 D. Newman            DE    35    12    7.5   19    0     2     82.6    
54 K. Devine            ILB   34    14    0.0   0     0     0     72.3    
97 R. Harmon            DE    27    10    8.0   13    0     0     81.9    
56 M. Goodwin           OLB   27    13    1.0   1     0     1     76.6    
46 C. Ventura           S     17    6     0.0   0     1     6     84.2    

I was looking for a bit more from the passing game, but tough to argue with 8.7 ypa there, even if the TD/Int ratio was a bit uninspiring. We know that’s basically what Swartz is capable of. Pretty good seasons from Montgomery and Czyz, while the supporting cast was fine as well.

Our running game, as usual, is inflated a shade by Swartz’s running totals. We are not running the ball very well overall, though. With the sort of investment in the OL we are making, that is discouraging.

Our pass rush was still among the league’s best, good to see. DT Rolfe is playing very well at the NT slot for us, and we are getting solid numbers all around. DE Newman is probably the best of the lot, but everyone seems to have gotten his share.

Pass defense overall is only average, which I would have liked to see better. Safety was a trouble slot – Rusty Woodson was out most of the year, so we had Upshaw and rookie Ventura playing most of the year, which contributed to the problem no doubt.

[QuikSand]

2036 Postseason Narrative:

Wild Card Round: Dallas (10-6) at Tampa Bay (12-4)

The kind of game we really prefer here – we get up 10-0 and sort of bear down from there. Never really run away with it, but we play tough defense, and don’t turn the ball over, and smother them over time, 22-10.

Divisional Round: Tampa Bay (13-4) at Washington (13-3)

Washington led by solid QB/RB tandem, like many teams. We get a couple of first half TDs from Timothy Montgomery to get ahead 21-7, and while it’s more wide open, the game plays out the same way as the last one – we are basically in charge the whole time, and wear them down. It’s 41-21 at the end, but our defense really set us up for some easy points.

Conference Championship: Tampa Bay (14-4) at Detroit (14-3)

The Lions shellacked us in the regular season, and get another shot here. A solid veteran QB, and a good young RB – sounds familiar. They are the defending champs, so we are the underdogs here for sure. We strike first, but cannot really keep control, and they chip away… 7-3, then 10-7, then 17-7. We get back into it with a long TD pass with about 6 minutes left, but that’s the last highlight in the reel, as we fall 17-14.

[QuikSand]

2036 Season Coda

Detroit defends their title easily over Buffalo.

We see LB Gabe Samuels and G Bart Rodgers earn all-pro honors, first and second team respectively.


Well, we basically know who we are. We seem to be good enough to hang double digit wins, and be “in the hunt.” A few weaknesses here and there, but overall this is just a good, solid team.

I blow it with one thing – I don’t have the cap space to offer LB Gabe Samuels the 5yr extension he seeks, and that’s just bad planning on my part. The only deal I can work out is with TE Travis Buffington – not a key player like Samuels, but he’s extending cheaply enough.

The team, overall, seems to be in a pretty good place – we have needs, but we are now cohesion aces to go with our generally strong roster. **sigh** Not too interesting, I fear.

[QuikSand]

2037 Initial Offseason

For some reason, I hit “end season” and continue on with this…

No retirements, but we have one veteran to release: CB Harvey Madison. We could actually make a run at re-signing him later, as he is a strong affinity anchor for our secondary – but for now, he has to go.

RB Chester Kelly is on a deal intended to be a “pivot” year – about $12 million. I suspect we will prefer to cut him, as we aren’t that bad off in terms of roster spots, but we don’t need to do so right away, at least.

RT Leland Lester is another interesting case – he’s slated to make about $10 million this year, he has lost his starting RT job to younger Raymond Money, and he is a strong conflict with our position leader. Another good candidate for a cut.

NT Jake Rolfe gets the tag and a $16m contract – not as bad as I had guessed, really.

[QuikSand]

2037 Free Agency

Well, here is our list of players in their walk year, and out of contract:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Roster, Scout Overview
   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate  Future Estimate Cntrct 
Wright, Jack            35  RB          6    57                57                1 yr.
Murray, Lawrence        44  FB          6    63                63                1 yr.
Czyz, Bryant            8   FL          13   61                61                1 yr.
Carter, Travis          62  LG          3    33                47                1 yr.
Schroeder, Clarence     71  LT          3    26                35                1 yr.
Money, Raymond          77  RT          4    52                60                1 yr.
Lester, Leland          67  RT          8    49                49                1 yr.
Rolfe, Jake             75  NT          10   79                79                1 yr.
Devine, Kris            54  WILB        7    36                36                1 yr.
Goodwin, Mel            56  WLB         3    37                47                1 yr.
Booker, Courtney        20  LCB         4    66                66                1 yr.
Pujols, George          42  LCB         8    43                43                1 yr.
Upshaw, Spencer         23  FS          4    52                52                1 yr.
Woodson, Rusty          30  FS          11   46                46                1 yr.

  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate  Future Estimate Cntrct 
Caballero, Jake         18  QB          4    22                33                ---  
Curson, Geoff           28  RB          4    25                31                ---  
Daughtry, Kenneth       41  RB          4    25                28                ---  
Rodgers, Bart           55  RG          12   69                69                ---  
Henry, Tracy            99  LDE         4    15                21                ---  
Fernyhough, Alonzo      79  NT          8    54                54                ---  
Samuels, Gabe           91  SLB         5    64                64                ---  
Palmer, Jamie           21  RCB         5    31                31                ---  

I guess the logical thing to do with an extension here is to work out a new deal with CB Booker, a guy we clearly want to try to keep around. We offer him the deal he is seeking, and get him locked up for three more seasons, each fairly pricey.

So, our main focus among our own players will be to return RG Bart Rodgers and LB Gabe Samuels. Past that, I’m fine with role players anywhere, and perhaps a short term deal with a pricey player somewhere (like DE?).

Reneg –
RFA – QB Jake Caballero, 3y minsal
1YR – RT Buddy Vasquez, $2.8m
2YR -
3YR – DE Donny Burne, $10.8m
4YR – DT Lester Horst, $31m (3y $8.7m)
5YR – SLB Gabe Samuels, 120m (4y $65m)
6YR – LB Michael Wilkerson, 132m (3y $30m)
7YR – RG Bart Rodgers, 195m (4y $54m)

It doesn’t take me long to discard RT Lester and RB Kelly to clear out cap space. That brings our target roster down to 56 players (assuming we use all our contract slots, etc), so we are still doing fine.

MLB Michael Wilkerson looks like a perfect addition for us to the inside LB corps, where we have young guys who won’t ever be as good as he already is. Solid add, I think.


Things are going fine, until week seven – when LB Gabe Samuels surprises me and out of the blue accepts a new offer from Minnesota. That was unexpected, and there’s nobody out there who can fill that “stud LB” slot for him. Tough loss. I’m thinking the right play here is to slide young Mel Goodwin to that role, but we will wait until after the draft to decide – OLB may also be a rookie target for us now.

Then, my fears are doubled – as G Bart Rodgers suddenly turns our offer down, and he too goes to Minnesota. Wow. I did not see that coming at all, I confess, I just saw our offer leading the whole way.

(Realistically, the loss of these two guys was largely my own fault – I tried to keep very close to their demands, and didn’t “overpay” either guy with my offer. I think it’s largely for the best, as we would have been committing quite a lot after these two easy-to-fill positions had they both accepted my offers)

So, we have our 5 and 7 year contract slots to use now, and not much out there to use them on. OG Roy Maticic is a run-blocker only, but is by far the best interior lineman out there, and he’s cool with a 5y deal. I think he will be solid, though not the same as plugging back in the same guy who has been with us for years and years.

LB Doug Farrington is a playable LB who ought to be okay in coverage – just one more guys we can use in a SLB rotation, perhaps. Not great, but cheap. We leave the 2yr slot open for a potential big money guy – as I now have the cap space for one.

[QuikSand]

2037 Rookie Draft

Well, we pick late in round one again, so we will again wait to see what is left over for us. I’m thinking our target slots for this draft are perhaps at LB,CB,DE,RB,QB and OL… rapidly approaching “everywhere.”

We are on the clock, and I have nobody really in mind here. I have a VU-rated WR who ran a 4.37 dash – is that the best place to go here – he might even slide to our round two pick. I explore trading down, but end up just taking the weird-bars CB who stands out to me – best deal we could work was to get a 3rd rounder for moving down 25 spots – too risky.

My target WR is there about six picks before we are up, and I decide to pounce rather than regret missing out on him. We get the Dallas 6th and 7th, but give up our 3rd to deal up.

Pick Pos Name                  Grd Adj 4TBAJP Dev O/U Scout  Comments
1.29 CB  Skip Nakamura         5.9 5.9 +  + + 60% HTR 25/39  Need to see a creep, good ints bar
2.22 WR  Patrick Phillips      5.2 5.4 !+ + + 17% VU  21/44  Big BPR guy with 4.37 dash, creep!
4.28 DT  Charles Collier (RDE) 4.6 5.0 ++-+   39% NA  21/40  PR guy, has to move outside period
5.29 SLB Jeffrey Morrison      4.6 4.6 + ++-  38% NA  23/39  Red flag kept him lingering long
6.24 FS  Oliver Winslett (SS)  4.1 3.8     -+ 21% NA  15/37  Solid pos drill (48) flatters him
6.28 C   Mack Manahan          4.7 4.0 ++ +-  16% NA  13/57  Not much to like here, take stab
7.23 ILB Charles Sanford       4.0 3.9  +- -  40% NA  11/48  Depth at need position, 33 PSpec 
7.29 RB  Joseph Davidson       3.8 4.0  -+- + 46% NA  18/38  Return skills seem worthwhile

Not much enthusiasm for the bottom of this draft, really, just filling in. If our top two picks work out, we’ll be okay overall.

[QuikSand]

2037 Late Free Agency

We get a holdout from young LB Paul Ward – perfect timing, as we are so thin at LB as is. My guess is that we will go with Mel Goodwin at the weak side slot, and maybe veteran signee Doug Farrington as the strong side starter. This is not ideal, but I think it’s our best use. We will likely keep rookie Jeffrey Morrison in the fold as our weak side backup.

I’m comfy enough with the LB situation that I feel I can go elsewhere for our last FA signee – and we pick up 4th year WR Rex Franklin on a short term deal. He comes off two straight 1,000 yard plus seasons, and comes to us for a fairly expensive offer of $7m per year for two seasons. A well rounded receiver, he ought to fit right in with our group, and potentially could become part of our longer term plans.

That pushes us all the way to 57 players, so we have some space to clear out.

[QuikSand]

The biggest camp movers:

Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name                          Team             Pos	Change
Farrington, Doug              Tampa            SLB	-14
Berry, Vernon                 Tampa            FL	-14
Woodson, Rusty                Tampa            FS	-8
Terry, Ben                    Tampa            SS	-8
Sanford, Charles              Tampa            WILB	-8
Rolfe, Jake                   Tampa            NT	-7
Czyz, Bryant                  Tampa            FL	-4
Manahan, Mack                 Tampa            C	-3
Davidson, Joseph              Tampa            RB	-2
Morrison, Jeffrey             Tampa            WLB	-2


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name                          Team             Pos	Change
Nakamura, Skip                Tampa            LCB	6
Phillips, Patrick             Tampa            SE	5
Franklin, Rex                 Tampa            FL	5
Vasquez, Buddy                Tampa            RT	4
Booker, Courtney              Tampa            LCB	3
Peters, Cedric                Tampa            SILB	2

So, young WR Rex Fanklin not only looks good, he joins just as our backup flanker falls over the cliff, and he gives us a +5 in camp himself. Wow, great timing, welcome to the fold. The defensive deterioration is rapid and pronounced at this point, that’s cause for concern – we are falling apart on that side of the ball.

CB Nakamura will develop into a major asset, it seems, and CB Booker made a nice (random) jump as well. We are going to need help fro a lot of guys soon, so we’ll take all we can get.

With this last drop in current skills, S Rusty Woodson has fallen out of our plans, and onto the FA pile. We expect to see both Spencer Upshaw and Craig Ventura getting playing time in the battle for the safety positions. It looks like longtime star Ben Terry is not far behind him in his decline.

[QuikSand]

2037 Season

Benchmarks:

Roster Rating – 100 (93 is next)
Cohesion – 95-85-71-100

My predictions:

More of the same with passing game – 3,500 and 28/14
RB Jack Wright posts 1,400 yards rushing on 4.1 ypc
WR Rex Franklin turns out to be our best WR with 1,200 yards
DE Darren Newman leads team with 12 sacks
We slip a bit, but still make the playoffs at 10-6

Season narrative:

We get off to an impressive 2-0 start, with a few surprises – like LB Mel Goodwin off to a great start with 3.5 sacks in just two games from the weak side. At 4-0, we look like a completely dominant team. Through 6 games, we remain prefect and our points ratio is 231-108.

We make it all the way to 10-0, and are still putting together monster numbers – Swartz is at a 125 passer rating with a 27/5 ratio, and our teamwide yards/target is over 10. We finally lose one at home to Carolina, but it’s still a magical season we put together all told, as we waltz right into the #1 seed and look easily the best we ever have.

Front Office Football 2007
2037 Summary for Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   
Year                2037                                      
Record              15-1                                      
Winning Pct.        .937                                      
All-Time            267-245                                   
Winning Pct.        .521                                      
Playoffs            10-11                                     
Playoff Visits      12                                        
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Shaun Grier                               
Record              67-20                                     
Winning Pct.        .770                                      
Off. Coord.         J. Helmuth                                
Def. Coord.         B. McKenzie                               
   
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         34.9      2           
Rushing Yards           132.4     6           
Yards Per Carry         3.79      27          
Pass Attempts           26.9      31          
Completions             16.9      29          
Completion Pct.         63.0      8           
Passing Yards           265.8     4           
Yards Per Attempt       9.89      1           
Yards Per Catch         15.69     1           
Total Yardage Gained    391.3     2           
3rd Down Conversions    47.5      3           
Points Per Game         37.4      1           
Pass Rush Pct.          27.8      1           
Pass Defense Pct.       75.7      1           
Turnovers               22        6 (T)       
Turnover Margin         +15       2 (T)       
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         23.9      5           
Rushing Yards           103.6     7           
Yards Per Carry         4.33      24        
Pass Attempts           35.3      26          
Completions             18.3      2           
Completion Pct.         51.7      1           
Passing Yards           194.3     1           
Yards Per Attempt       5.50      1           
Yards Per Catch         10.65     3 (T)       
Total Yardage Gained    278.8     1           
3rd Down Conversions    28.6      1           
Points Per Game         15.1      2           
Pass Rush Pct.          16.7      5 (T)       
Pass Defense Pct.       48.4      11          
Turnovers               37        2 (T)       
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     48    at ATL        15      
2     26    MIA           17      
3     45    at WAS        28      
4     31    ARI           3       
5     38    SFO           17      
6     43    at STL        28      
8     39    at SEA        6       
9     35    at NOS        13      
10    34    ATL           10      
11    40    at CAR        25      
12    45    at NYJ        25      
13    45    DET           0       
14    37    BUF           7       
15    21    CAR           27      
16    30    at NED        13      
17    41    NOS           7       
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
4 J. Swartz             QB    422   265   4122  9.77  45    12    118.8   
**Team                  ---   430   271   4253  9.89  46    12    119.8   
$$Opp                   ---   565   292   3109  5.50  16    23    60.5    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
35 J. Wright            RB    392   1497  3.82  15    9       
27 S. Cooper            RB    110   418   3.80  1     4       
4 J. Swartz             QB    56    205   3.66  2     1       
**Team                  ---   559   2119  3.79  18    24      
$$Opp                   ---   383   1657  4.33  11    26      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
80 T. Montgomery        WR    103   76    1269  16.70 12.32 6     13      
81 R. Franklin          WR    92    53    1050  19.81 11.41 6     10      
8 B. Czyz               WR    82    47    815   17.34 9.94  5     9       
83 R. Shipp             WR    35    21    390   18.57 11.14 3     1       
88 T. Buffington        TE    38    20    258   12.90 6.79  2     3       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
49 B. Terry             S     92    23    1.0   0     3     12    82.6    
51 M. Wilkerson         ILB   76    21    4.0   7     4     2     76.8    
23 S. Upshaw            S     55    31    0.0   0     0     17    83.0    
72 D. Newman            DE    50    14    11.0  31    0     0     81.8    
20 C. Booker            CB    44    11    3.0   0     4     15    84.5    
54 K. Devine            ILB   43    11    1.5   0     0     2     73.2    
57 D. Farrington        OLB   42    19    2.5   3     0     5     78.0    
42 G. Pujols            CB    40    13    0.0   0     0     3     75.4    
78 D. Burns             DE    39    14    7.5   18    0     0     82.0    
75 J. Rolfe             DT    37    18    6.0   18    0     0     81.5    
56 M. Goodwin           OLB   36    9     9.5   23    1     1     82.1    
39 O. Carlisle          CB    26    8     0.0   0     5     14    90.4    
50 C. Peters            OLB   22    10    0.0   2     1     1     80.0    
32 S. Nakamura          CB    18    2     0.0   0     3     3     84.0    

Wow – Jose Swartz had a big big year for us – up to now, he was basically mister steady, good for 25-30 TDs a year (only one season over 30) and suddenly he posts 45 this season, with the same game plan. It just all came together, it seems. WR rex Franklin surely helps – he and Montgomery posted big seasons, and Czyz was still solid, playing mostly in the slot.

The running game was nothing special, but Wright did post big numbers, mostly due to us having a lot of big leads. Both our guards had outstanding seasons.

On defense, our pass rush was again among the league’s best - #1 with that PR% over 27. Newman did indeed lead the team, but we were good as a unit there, with Goodwin likely earning the weak side job for good now. Safety Spencer Upshaw was shockingly good, and made a case for a new contract with a great 17 passes defensed. DE Donny Burns may have been a meaningful upgrdae for us at DE over Ronald Harmon, moving quietly into that starting role and giving us a solid season.

And as usual – the key ingredient in putting together a great defense is arranging to get ahead by three touchdowns. Sure thing.

[QuikSand]

2037 Postseason Narrative

Divisional Playoff: Philadelphia (12-5) at Tampa Bay (15-1)

Everything completely falls apart here for us, as we fall behind 24-7 at the half, and then another TD on the first third quarter possession. But we rally hard, get back into position to get into the game, and after Swartz leaves the game with an aggravated injury, we come back under Timothy Murphy to push the game into overtime, and secure the eventual 34-31 win. Hand Murphy the Frank Reich award for that one.

Conference Championship: Dallas (13-4) at Tampa Bay (16-1)

Okay, Swartz is again listed as Q with a knee, he is slotted as our starter, but who knows? Swartz plays, but we are not effective on offense, and fail to get thing going at all – we fall behind, and this time our rally comes up short, as we fall 17-14.

[QuikSand]

2037 Season Coda

Well, great regular season, disappointing postseason – we’ve heard this one before.

Dallas wins it all easily over Buffalo (heh).

Jose Swartz gets his first all-pro honors, named second team QB behind Dallas’s wily veteran Frank Altenberger. K Cris Joseph and OLB Mel Goodwin are named first teamers.


I decide that S Spencer Upshaw deserves a new deal after this excellent season, and we lock him up for three more years. Not the guy I had in mind at the start of the season, but he really seems to have earned it, in my view.

[QuikSand]

For what it's worth, I am toying with the idea of continuing this career under some version of the rules that I have tossed out in this thread. I'm pretty much bored with these rules -- though they have done a pretty reasonable job of keeping me challenged, I'm getting a little tired of doing all the same little things year in and year out.

Just FYI... I might relaunch this career in a new thread, with a new set of rules.

[QuikSand]

Placeholder thought here. Looking back at these rules, trying to decide if there's enough here to reboot with.

Contemplating tying in an old rule I used a few times long, long ago -- limiting my FA activity to no more than one outstanding FA offer at any time. Could fit with this theme, possibly even simpler to manage.

For now, just a thought...

[britrock88]

I just spent the last few hours reading this straight through, and I think your constraints were interesting to see you work with, even if they weren't that interesting for you to wiggle inside. That said, I've never played FOF, though I have enough Madden experience / NFL knowledge to stand in for FOF know-how.

Without constraints like these, how challenging is single-player mode?

[QuikSand]

I think for a brand new player, FOF single player is likely to be pretty challenging. There are a lot of things that simply require some brute force and experience to get familiar enough with to really "beat" the game.

For veteran players who have mastered the wide open game, I think the game still plays really well with some constraints. At that point, it's just a matter of how tough to you want to make the constraints, and/or what sort of decisions do you like to be making? For me, it's basically a holy grail sort of thing... the process of developing a great set of house rules is a decade-long challenge for me, and it's become sort of a meta game unto itself.

I am fiddling a bit now on using this "one" concept, built around one-FA-offer-outstanding as the centerpiece, as a good and easy-to-follow rule. So far, fairly promising returns, but I don't know that I am pushing it as far as I ought to.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

The Highlander Challenge

It’s been a while since I played a public, documented, solo FOF career. I thought I would give it a shot once again. I will again make a try to come up with a set of rules that make the game a long-term challenge for me – what I want is for the game to be interesting to play, challenging to win, but allow me to play “all out” within the rules that I have adopted up front. You may have heard me refer to this as a holy grail… it’s tougher than it seems.

So, my current thinking is that I’ll try a set of rules where I am allowed to do lots of different things – but none of them more than once per season. Thus, the play-on-words title of the challenge, which I hope won’t be lost on quite everyone.


So, here are the limitations for the career. In any given season:

-there can be only one unrestricted free agent signed to a one-year contract
-there can be only one unrestricted free agent signed to a two-year contract
-there can be only one unrestricted free agent signed to a three-year contract
-there can be only one unrestricted free agent signed to a four-year contract
-there can be only one unrestricted free agent signed to a five-year contract
-there can be only one unrestricted free agent signed to a six-year contract
-there can be only one unrestricted free agent signed to a seven-year contract
-there can be only one year on any new offer made to a restricted free agent
-there can be only one renegotiation before the season starts
-there can be only one renegotiation toward the end of the season
-there can be only one trade, either within the current draft or AI-initiated

Yes, I include my own out-of-contract players among the limits for FA signees. I am also aware that the ability to sign contracts for longer than three years generally means committing either huge money or else stuffing huge backends to the deals forcing a release some way through – so in essence, it will be very difficult for me to keep players around in this career, I expect. That is absolutely by design – the worry I’m targeting here is that I generally find it far too easy to just re-sign lots and lots of decent role players for minsal or a bit more year after year – and all of my solo teams turn into cohesion monsters as a result.

So, basically – my rookie draftees are mine through their rookie contract and for whatever I can sign them to as restricted free agents – meaning that I can get an easy four years out of most of them who turn out to be worth keeping. Past that, I will have a pretty limited ability to keep players around.

I’m also limiting my ability to sign undrafted rookies here. I’ll have to bend these rules as I initially build a team (empty cupboard will demand it) and fill in with one year rookies, but my intention is to have these limits apply to those players too.

This proved to be among the better (or at least most memorable) sets of House Rules I developed and used in FOF over the years.

I like that it introduced something that is missing in FOF compared to the real world NFL... routine bad contracts requiring dead money tails. It is just too easy to avoid that, for the most part, even in cutthroat MP leagues. In the NFL even good teams end up with them on the regular.