Flags Fly Forever v2: An OOTP24 Dynasty (Season 15)

[JetsIn06]

The 1959-1960 Offseason

What an incredible series. I'm sad that many, many words that were written while I was playing it out are lost to the internet void, but flags fly forever.

FA roll (1-3): 1
Trade roll (1-3): 2

Carryover from last season: +1 FA
Profit ($13.9M): +1 to both
Worst record penalty: N/A
Win World Series: +1 to both

Total:

45+ rated FA: 4
Trades: 4

That's a good amount to work with, and we're going to need it. We have five departing players heading to free agency, the most important of which is C Adam Flowers. We knew this before acquiring him, of course, but he's far too expensive to keep. RP Javier Vasquez is also going into FA, along with our backup catcher and bench outfielder, C Lance Premo and CF Mike Martinez.

Right now, we only have about $4.6M in budget room in 1960. On top of that, the league is going to expand! Still working out the details, but we'll surely lose a role player or two in that draft.

And then the cherry on top, a thirteen-player arbitration class with SP Tom Brown, RP Danny Hamilton, CL Jerry Johnson, and 1B Nick Henriksen all entering their final season of team control. All three pitchers played key roles in the World Series, and Henriken had a strong season (124 wRC+) but missed the victory due to injury.

We swing our first trade of the offseason, moving 1B/DH Jose Luis and 2B Ruben Perez to the Chicago Packers. It's a disappoint end for Luis, who we signed on the IAFA market back in 1951. While he played well this season, he was only able to get 249 PA due to injury. He missed all of 1958 as well. An incredible contact hitter, it's a shame we never got to see his true potential, but maybe he stays on the field somewhere else. Perez is a league average player who can play decent defense at 2B/3B, but he's due to make $3.6M as he enters arbitration and we have a very similar player in 2B Chris McGinnis in AAA, who's been waiting there for a couple of years for his time to come up. We also send 20-year-old catching prospect Dave Dorman, our 2nd round pick last year.

In return, SP Jack Hall joins the club. He's in the final year team control, but will bolster our rotation quite a bit. He made 32 starts last year with a 3.78 ERA. His K% is just 18.4%, so he doesn't quite have the stuff we typically look for, but he'd be great towards the back of this rotation and we're definitely lacking the depth I would like.

But what may be the true prize here is C Bryan Hanna, the #48 prospect in baseball. He's a strong defender but an even better hitter, and he was incredible in his pro debut in rookie ball, hitting .344 with a 121 wRC+.

FA: 4
Trades: 3

Awards season comes, and Chris Rodriguez wins the 1959 Pitcher of the Year Award. He started 33 games, and went 20-4 with a 2.60 ERA and 190 Ks.

[JetsIn06]

1960 League Expansion

Our 20-team league is expanding by four teams. Long structures with two sub-leagues and no divisions, we'll now have two divisions in each league based on team geography, with six teams in each division.

I went ahead and split up the league into four divisions of five, so now each division will an expansion team each. No teams switched sub-leagues in this process.

The new teams:

Columbia League East: Tampa Bay Mocs
Columbia League West: Denver Bears

Federal League East: Indianapolis Ravens
Federal League West: Texas Giants

Players with less than 5 Pro Service Years are automatically protected in the upcoming expansion draft, and we can protect 16 total players. Each team can only lose a maximum of three players.

C Bobby Munoz is selected by the Indianapolis Ravens. Munoz has a great eye at the plate and is strong on defense. Reaching AAA last year, he was in line to compete for our backup job (or starting job, potentially).

SP/RP Cortez Soto is taken by the Denver Bears, who spent most of the last year working out of our of our pen. He threw 71.2 innings, with a 4.27 ERA and 76 Ks.

RP Nick Manessis goes to Tampa Bay. A reliever here, he's likely going to start for the Mocs and could definitely be solid. Out of the pen, he threw 71 innings to a 2.66 ERA.

[JetsIn06]

Still in definite need of a catcher, we reach a deal with the Brooklyn Originals, who have had C Angelo Arizmendi on their block/available seemingly forever. He's always been an interesting player but was owed far too much money. Now in the last year of his deal, we're able to get Brooklyn to eat about 50% of his deal and send SP Jeff Beckham, who has been back and forth between AAA and Portland over the last few years. He struggled out of the pen last year, so he'll maybe get another shot in the rotation in Brooklyn and we'll get Arizmendi in return.

The switch-hitting catcher has a below average bat (58 wRC+), but is elite behind the dish. We'll see if we can find an offensive-minded catcher in FA.

45+ rated FA: 4
Trades: 2

[JetsIn06]

With 4 FA's allowed and not a ton of holes or budget room, we use one early to lock up CF Hector Araiza. His range is at an extreme level, so we want to make sure he's with us for a while. We buy out all of his arbitration years and an additional free agent year, with two more years as team options. In total, it's an eight-year, $35M pact.

45+ rated FA: 3
Trades: 2

Then we turn our attention to an arm; SP Jimmy Letter is open to an extension of a similar framework. He signs a deal that buys out all of his arbitration years and team options for two free agent years; its an eight-year pact that totals $34M.

45+ rated FA: 2
Trades: 2

[JetsIn06]

The 1960 Portland Rosebuds

The '60 Rosebuds are on pace to be one of the best run-prevention led teams in a long time. It's June 1st, we're 37-16, and our offense is scuffling a bit; but we've allowed ~50 runs less than the next lowest team. Our staff ERA is 2.59, with an opponent average of .209. All five SPs have an ERA that starts with 2. Crazy.

But as I mentioned, the offense isn't great. We're 8th of 12 Federal League teams in runs scored and just one player with double-digit home runs; although that player, 3B Dave Magby, is carrying us with 17 HR and a whopping 171 wRC+.

April: 15-10
May: 22-6

[JetsIn06]

1960 Amateur Draft

Our first pick is used on SS Matt Biggs. He's a college shortstop with a great glove and an arm that may push him to 2B. The defensive skills are paired with an average overall hit tool and power, but a great eye that should keep him above water. A lack of speed is another issue.

In the 2nd, we go with CF Rick Braley, a New York-based prep hitter and a future strong corner OF with an arm that will keep him in left. He has a strong hit tool with power and won't strike out beyond a league-average rate.

In the 3rd, it's 17-year-old prep arm SP Brendan Age out of Illinois. The senior has a great fastball and changeup, with a cutter thrown in as well. While the competition was just average for him, he dominated in his senior year, striking out 196 hitters in just 109.1 IP.

[JetsIn06]

1960 Trade Deadline

We continue to play really, well, but as we get towards the end of July our division mates, the Vancouver Mounties, have been absolutely on fire. In June, they went 21-6, and as of July 25th they are 16-3 in the month. While we have been winning via run prevention, they have been mashing, ranked 1st in nearly every important category related to hitting the ball.

Overall, with a week or so to play in July, we're 3.5GB. They're 70-27, and we're right there behind them. Interestingly, both division leaders in the East are hovering around .500, with teams in the West doing incredibly. For example, the 5th place team in the Federal League West has a better record than the Federal League East's best team.

Now; we have some decisions to make as we get to the deadline. We have a whopping SEVEN players who are in the final year of their contract. While I want to win, I'm always trying to thread the needle and win while retooling for the future.

Three players that could be involved in a big move:

SP Tom Brown: He's 31, in the final year of his deal, and is looking for $25M a year for the next seven years to re-sign. We're not going to do that, but would receive a draft pick in return if he stays for the rest of the season. With such strong performances on the mound, it may make sense to move him for a bat at the deadline if we can get a strong return.

CL Jerry Johnson: Johnson has a 1.35 ERA this year so far, and he's following a 1.62 ERA campaign last season. He's a free agent after this year, and wants a four-year deal averaging $16M per, which we won't do on a reliever.

SP Jack Hall: We brought in Hall in the offseason in a trade and he's played well, pitching to a 3.48 ERA over 19 starts. He's looking for a much more reasonable $9M per year over three years, which I may consider doing right now, actually. He's only 28 years old, and the strikeout rate, which was the concern we had, has ticked up a bit this year. We make the offer and he signs an extension.

45+ rated FA: 1
Trades: 2

Before that move, I was debating converting the two FA's into a trade and making three moves at the deadline here, but now the obvious/only move is to find some trades we can make to bolster the lineup for the stretch run and keep the FA for next season.

While I debate hanging on to SP Tom Brown, I'm going to hedge my bets here to get two controllable hitters back in return. Brown will go to Georgia, and in return we'll get C Eddie Rodriguez, who will have three years of control left after this season. He's a contact oriented hitter and is strong enough defensively to handle the starting role. We're getting nothing from our catching corps and our starting backstop is also in the last year of his contract.

Additionally, we get OF Manuel Cardenas, a great hitter who was ranked as the #13 prospect in the game. Now 25, he's in his rookie season and is playing well, slashing .293/.336/.517. I'm concerned about his health moving forward, but with plenty of team control left I think we'll get a decent value out of this deal despite sending an elite pitcher in Brown.

45+ rated FA: 1
Trades: 1

Our final trade is to add an old friend; IF John Faiella. We're really in need of a contact hitter who can hit for average, and Faiella is that in spades. However, his injury history has been devastating. Now 29, Faiella has played one season where he got into more than 100 games. Interestingly, Faiella was a key part of the the trade that got us SP Tom Brown, who we just dealt above.

Faiella will be on our bench, available to pinch-hit and pinch-run, and he can play a strong middle infield as well. He's in the last year of his deal, and we have no real desire to consider a longer term pact beyond this.

In return, we send OF John Hollis, a favorite who we signed to a very team-friendly deal prior to the 1959 season. It's still early, but his wRC+ has dipped to 81 after 103 and 119 in the last two seasons. I think he could still be great, but we have similar corner OFs in the minors and just added a new one from the Brown deal.

45+ rated FA: 1
Trades: 0

June: 16-10
July: 18-7

[JetsIn06]

1960 Final Stretch

By the end of August, Faiella goes down for 7 weeks, which knocks him out for the rest of the year. He hit .322 over 63 PA for us.

The injury news doesn't end there. With six games left, we enter into a tie with Vancouver, each of us with a 105-51 record. A few days ago we learned that Ryne White, an elite reliever in his rookie season who we took in the supplemental round of the 1958 draft, was hurt. Today, the start of a series against Vancouver, we learn that White's career is over. Through 61 innings, he had a 1.61 ERA and was set to take over the closer role from Jerry Johnson.

We have to push on, but we don't. Vancouver sweeps us, and with a three-game set against New Orleans, we'd need a sweep and Vancouver to get swept by Texas, an expansion team. It doesn't happen.

We finish with a record of 107-55, yet will not make the playoffs.

August: 17-12
September/October: 19-10

[korme]

107-55 and missing the playoffs is brutal

[JetsIn06]

Originally Posted by korme

107-55 and missing the playoffs is brutal

Absolutely brutal. Luckily, our payroll looks like it'll be in decent shape next year and the only player in their final year that we're actually going to miss is CL Jerry Johnson (51 SV, 2.08 ERA, 31.6 K%).

[JetsIn06]

The 1960-1961 Offseason

107 wins. No playoffs.

We have five departing free agents

C Angelo Arizmendi (.223/.263/.355, 10 HR, 1.4 WAR)

Playing in a little over half of our games this year, Arizmendi struggled offensively as expected, but still finished with a 1.4 WAR due to his defense behind the dish. He wants $25M per year for four years, which isn't going to work for us. We do offer him a $20M qualifying offer and hope he declines.

RP Danny Hamilton (3.48 ERA, 24.4 K%)

Hamilton has been a lefty that we've relied on out of the pen for parts of the last eight seasons. With a career 3.75 ERA and 25.8 K%, he's always been good, but never great. The walk and home run rate ticked up a bit over the last two seasons, and while he doesn't want a ton ($6.5M/yr for 3 years) I think we'll try to fill this role internally/cheaply.

1B Nick Henriksen (.246/.305/.497, 22 HR, 0.7 WAR)

Henriksen spent some time on the IL to start the year recovering from a knee injury suffered right before the end of the 1959 season. He was able to get 400 PA, and he was okay. With a 117 wRC+ he was better than average but supplies virtually no defensive talent and has a significant platoon split (82 wRC+ vs LHP/119 wRC+ vs RHP). He's open to a team-friendly deal, relatively speaking, at $69M over five years. But with his injury history and now 30 years old, we're going to pass.

CL Jerry Johnson (2.08 ERA, 51 SV, 31.6 K%)

This is the guy I'm going to be sad about losing. He's got electric stuff as a lefty and has been lights out against hitters on both sides of the plate. While I'm tempted to offer him a QO, his asking price is about $5M below that ($15M/yr for 4 years) and the thought of paying a reliever, even one as good as Johnson, is tough to swallow.

With all of that said, let's roll our imaginary dice and see what kind of moves we can make this upcoming year:

FA roll (0-3): 3
Trade roll (0-3): 0

Carryover from last season: +1 FA
Profit ($4.27M): +1 to both
Worst record penalty: N/A
Win World Series: N/A

Total:

45+ rated FA: 5
Trades: 1

Okay, so a little lopsided here and not really in our favor. While we have a lot of money coming off the books this year and far fewer arbitration-eligible guys, money is always tight here in Portland. Right now, payroll looks to be around $89M or so with about $32M in budget room, if our accountants are correct.

I guess that is quite a bit more than what we're used to.

Anddddd that didn't last long. C Angelo Arizmendi accepts the QO we offered, cutting into $20M of our budget. I'm honestly shocked that he did. Shit.

Free agency begins, and we'll have about $13-14M to play with.

[JetsIn06]

It's been a little bit, so let's take a quick holistic look at the squad before we make any decisions.

C Eddie Rodriguez (.209/.265/.296)

Solid defender, and only 25. Contact ratings are decent and he played well in his rookie and sophomore year in Georgia, but obviously has declined to get to this pretty dreadful slash line. K% keeps rising, BB% keeps diving. Hope he's a backup.

1B Justin Chandler (.265/.308/.437)

This was Chandler's fourth season with us, but it's first first time getting through a full season. Over 607 PA he hit 17 HR but his walk rate has dropped down to just above 5%. He's entering his final season.

2B Chris McGinnis (.330/.388/.511)

Called up mid-year after torching AAA, McGinnis finally got the call at the age of 26 and three years after we added him in a trade. He didn't disappoint, slashing the above numbers over 209 PA.

3B Dave Magby (.250/.315/.456)

Magby swatted 28 HR following up on his 30 HR campaign in '59. But the walk rate dropped to single digits (8.7%) for the first time since his rookie season. Everything else looks pretty good and consistent.

SS Jonathan Tandy (.250/.331/.453)

Already having a great glove, Tandy followed up his stellar first fill season with another fantastic season, despite dropping slightly across AVG, OBP, and SLG.

LF Manuel Cardenas (.335/.378/.542)

Picked up at the deadline, Cardenas is a high-contact guy with some pop who played really well over 217 PA with our squad this season. Currently listed as the #13 prospect.

CF Hector Araiza (.235/.289/.377)

A defensive outlier, Araiza is one of the best CF's in the game, and a full season of playing time showed he wasn't a complete black hole on offense. While the average wasn't great, he hit 32 doubles and 14 HR along with 22 SB for 3.1 WAR.

RF Tony Serna (.254/.321/.494)

Serna led our team in homers with 36. We accepted a team option to bring him back this year and have another for next year, but I don't see any reason to believe his upcoming age-30 season won't be another solid one.

DH Alex Dominguez (.269/.360/.407)

Dominguez played his entire rookie season in the majors, getting 542 PA. His 12 BB% as a rookie looks incredible, and he struck out just 18.8% of the time while hitting 13 HR. While coming up through our international complex as a 2B, his defense isn't good but it could certainly play at 1B and he doesn't need to be stuck at DH. With Chandler in his final year, we'll have to explore that as an option.

BN/OF Jorge Zermeno (.223/.343/.410)

Zermeno was the key piece that we received back in the OF Guilleromo Rodriguez trade:

We make a deal with Detroit, sending them DH Guillermo Rodriguez, SS prospect and defensive wizard Kellen Almond (unranked, our 55th prospect), and SP prospect Matt Shaffer (#348, our #21 prospect), and $14M to cover Rodriguez's salary.

The return is headlined by LF Jorge Zermeno, the one-time #3 prospect who just graduated off the list this season. He's a right-handed bat that can definitely play in the corner outfield, with massive power and a tremendous eye (both 7). The contact is a little iffy (5) and he has no speed or baserunning ability, but the power/eye combination could be huge. He has less than a year of service time, so he's under team control for the next six seasons.

Additionally, 2B Chris McGinnis comes over in the deal. He's the #327 prospect and #13 in Detroit's system. Our scout like him a bit more than that, and Detroit picked him with the 21st overall pick last summer. He can play 2B. 3B, and fill in at SS if needed, and the 6/5/6 bat profile works if he develops.

Finally, two relief arms who just hit arbitration come over in the deal as well. Each is a high stuff, low control arm. Neither is overly expensive, but these guys helped make the financials work and I'll have a couple spots in the bullpen open with some guys from last year moving back into the rotation.

I mentioned McGinnis above, and interestingly, one of the relief arms I didn't even name here is our recently-departed closer Jerry Johnson. But Zermano was supposed to be the big return. We even signed him to a long-term contract. While his season wasn't horrible, he's in a part-time role, just starting against LHP. His PA per year have plummeted each year down to 198 last season.

[JetsIn06]

We have a bunch of options for the rotation, with six players who made starts last year. One slightly frustrating thing is that my manager is a stickler for controlling our pitching staff/role decisions. While I typically let the manager run things, every now and then I'll use the "force start" feature to get platoons and such the way I like them. But in our manager's case, he doesn't give a shit what we think.

So Jack Hall, a starter who made 29 starts last year, and signed to a little extension, looks like he's going to be our closer. While Blake Milner, who made 18 starts last year and looks much more like a bullpen piece in my mind, is in the rotation.

Such is life as a GM. Maybe we'll fire him next offseason.

Anyway - here's a quick rundown of our options for the rotation.

SP Chris Rodriguez (18-7, 3.11 ERA, 2.97 SIERA)
SP Adam Dunshee (11-6, 3.38 ERA, 3.64 SIERA)
SP Jose Aquino (8-3, 2.76 ERA, 2.39 SIERA)
SP Blake Milner (7-6, 4.01 ERA, 2.63 SIERA)
SP Jimmy Letter (12-5, 2.82 ERA, 3.55 SIERA)
SP/RP Jack Hall (16-6, 3.38 ERA, 3.69 SIERA)

Obviously we've got some decent options here and I'm not super worried about the depth here. We'll mostly look to round out our bullpen with call-ups, but could probably use one good signing there.

[JetsIn06]

To recap:

Total:

45+ rated FA: 5
Trades: 1

Let's get one thing out of the way. C Angelo Arizmendi accepting his QO really puts us in a hole. So we put together an offer and send him to the California Seals. They'll send RP Manny Hernandez, a left-handed reliever in the final year of deal at $8M. In total, we'll pay 20% of Arizmendi's deal ($4M) and $8M for Hernandez, saving us $8M in payroll and we get a left-handed arm to replace Jerry Johnson, and all of this is just for one season so we're not tied up in any long-term deals. Johnson struck out 23.6% of hitters last season as a swing man; he pitched 98 innings over 53 games.

Total:

45+ rated FA: 5
Trades: 0

With 5 FA signings available and not a whole ton of budget room, we look towards the younger guys on our roster and look for a potential extension candidate. One thing I'm noticing is a ton of guys with injury risk, which isn't great. I've had so many guys like that bust. But 2B Chris McGinnis isn't a huge injury risk, and he played well in his first season with us. Still with just one year of service time, McGinnis accepts what appears to be a team-friendly deal that escalates to $12M team options in his first two FA years, a total of $43M over six years.

Total:

45+ rated FA: 4
Trades: 0

[JetsIn06]

We'll use our ability to swap two-for-one here, as we line up on a trade with the New York Knights to send recently acquired $8M man RP Manny Hernandez, 19-year-old former 2nd-rounder C Steve Dolan, and 22-year-old former 3rd-rounder Scott Lent to New York for C Gustavo Gonzalez.

Gonzalez is a glove-first backstop with elite defensive skills, but his .279 wOBA was at least passable for the amount of defense he provides.

Total:

45+ rated FA: 2
Trades: 0

And here, we'll do another two-for-one to get one more trade option to bring with us into the season.

Total:

45+ rated FA: 0
Trades: 1