2024 Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown, etc

[QuikSand]

Later than usual to start a thread here, sorry.

Past Performances through BRIS online here:
https://production-picks-uploads.s3....y-Derby-24.pdf

[QuikSand]

Conventional wisdom on the favorite:

FIERCENESS is the best horse. His three best efforts out of 5 races are good enough to win here. He has tactical speed to stay toward the front, and from an outside post likely can steer clear of a lot of traffic, and get positioned maybe on the second row into the first big turn. Deserving favorite, overall.

Knocks on the favorite: not clear he can handle real traffic and getting any dirt/mud in his face, just hasn't faced a lot of real adversity, and we have seen a LOT of brilliant horses look superb on the Derby trail only to come up wanting when they get to the real thing, a huge field, and maybe a bad break or some early jostling. Not to mention the distance - his breeding seems fine, and he finished strong last time out, but... no guarantees what the extra distance brings. Something like 2-1 in a giant field isn't much value, and I doubt he goes much higher than that.

[QuikSand]

I am a pace guy, so here's what seems likely early on:

1 DORNOCH has no choice but to go, push toward or take the lead. He's not gonna be passing horses late, his path to win is keep the rail and hope for the best. 5, 8, 9, maybe 10/11, 12, and maybe a couple others from the outside are all candidates to either pressure for the lead or to park just off DORNOCH's hip. I don't see an easy pace setup, I think they will work early. That seems to favor those who will be stalking behind them, or possibly coming from way back.

Best guess is that for the two short price horses, FIERCENESS is either on the front row or the second row, likely 3-5 wide early. And SIERRE LEONE likely well toward the back, probably on the inside but saving ground would put him 6-8-10 lengths back early in a big field, I'd think.

[QuikSand]

Some pedigree analysis, frequently useful for the 1 1/4 mils distance, which is new to nearly all Derby horses.

paulickreport.com

2024 Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet: Get to Know the Horses | America's Best Racing

[Ksyrup]

I pulled FIERCENESS out of the office pool hat this morning.

Just a warning for anyone thinking of betting on him.

[QuikSand]

ENCINO scratching softens the pace picture a bit (one fewer horse who would have been pushing for the early lead) but I remain convinced there will be 3-5 who are pushing it early, and a soft/slow early pace for someone like DORNOCH to get an actual easy, unpressured trip is unlikely.

[QuikSand]

Early wagering gives us some semi-reliable insight into the bettor's differences with the morning linemaker.

Kentucky Derby Horses | Kentucky Derby

Actual bettors like FIERCENESS way more than SIERRA LEONE. ML had it 5/2 and 3-1, early money says 8-5 and 6-1, that's a BIG gap. But not a big net, overall, to affect the rest of the pool too much - just different split between them. (Put as simple win % the ML had them 28+25, current line is more like 38+14)

FOREVER YOUNG, the better part of the Japanese-trained pair, is now the third betting choice at 8-1. I have no strong feeling there.

[QuikSand]

I always have a horse to use, or center on, that I see as giving very good value. This year I guess it's going to be 15 DOMESTIC PRODUCT.

The case for:

-last race out (and the time before that) he managed to run down and beat the front runners after they benefitted from a very slow early pace - one that would have suggested that the early leaders should have had extra energy to close well. DP doesn't run from WAY back but he was definitely messy in both races.

-DP gave an early move in the Tampa Bay Derby, had to stop, then had to start up again - and did it with enough energy to run past the front tier... tactics we don't see a ton from mediocre horses, tactically impressive

-He has been training very well at Churchill, has clockers talking, and -- well, generally all these horses are young and developing, so what you can't see on paper is where they are pointed over the last few weeks. He looks due for a big increase in his overall outcomes, by the looks of his physical appearance and morning workouts. And he has been off for longer than most here.

The case against:

-His efforts to date have just not been anywhere near the league needed to win a big race like this, plain and simple. He beat a likely weak field in Tampa Bay, and has yet to register a speed figure that says "contender." That puts you at 35-1 at last check, and an afterthought. Most who like the pro arguments above will pull up and say "well, maybe on the bottom side of my exotics" rather than on top.


I think the value line on him is more like 15-1, so at 35-1 and likely thinner in the more complictaed trifecta and superfecta pools, I will be using him.

My first ticket in is a 5 horse exacta box:

3 MYSTIK DAN 27-1
4 CATCHING FREEDOM 9-1
7 HONOR MARIE 17-1
15 DOMESTIC PRODUCT 35-1
17 FIERCENESS 8-5

[weegeebored]

Unconfirmed rumor: Fierceness has a hoof issue. If true they could wait to scratch until Saturday A.M. similar to Forte last year.

[Thomkal]

in my totally non-horse racing bet i will go with Mystik Dan because that's my name, and Sierra Leone because i studied African history/georgraphy and it was part of the back to africa movement i was very interested in.



i take no blame if these horses now finish last.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

in my totally non-horse racing bet i will go with Mystik Dan because that's my name, and Sierra Leone because i studied African history/georgraphy and it was part of the back to africa movement i was very interested in.



i take no blame if these horses now finish last.

Your name is Mystik? How lovely!

[Ksyrup]

I believe that's a Tragedeigh.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Your name is Mystik? How lovely!

It's my porn name

[QuikSand]

MYSTIK DAN down to 16-1 on bad weather in KY today, and his biggest win over a very wet track

[Arles]

I could see the track drying up by tomorrow. I like Fierceness, but also like:
4 catching Freedom
7 Honor Marie
11 Forever Young

Quik perked my interested with the 15. The only other I’m looking at is the 6 Just Steel.

[QuikSand]

JUST A TOUCH moving into my field

[QuikSand]

Early CD races are tagged as MUDDY but it doesn’t look sloppy to me, I don’t expect much bias from it, for what that’s worth.

[QuikSand]

FIERCENESS now up to 7/2 maybe on hoof rumors, or suspicion he won’t take to the off track. Interesting.

[weegeebored]

No rain the the forecast. Yesterday was a mess but I imagine the the track will be of the "drying out" variety.

[weegeebored]

Trifecta part wheel -- 2,15,17 / 2,4,7,15,17 / 2,4,7,15,17

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

in my totally non-horse racing bet i will go with Mystik Dan because that's my name, and Sierra Leone because i studied African history/georgraphy and it was part of the back to africa movement i was very interested in.



i take no blame if these horses now finish last.

Congrats! I hope you bet big here!

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

in my totally non-horse racing bet i will go with Mystik Dan because that's my name, and Sierra Leone because i studied African history/georgraphy and it was part of the back to africa movement i was very interested in.



i take no blame if these horses now finish last.

I hope you CRUSHED this on your fun hunches

[GrantDawg]

What a race! Tight to say the least.

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[Ksyrup]

Fierceness got squeezed and then completely fell back/gave up.

[GrantDawg]

Someone needs to explain to me how Sierra Leone didn't get a foul.

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[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by cartman

Congrats! I hope you bet big here!

Sadly I did not bet. I guess i can live in infamy here with my picks.



None of my other "for fun' picks ever got this close. i was sure cheering there at the end.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Someone needs to explain to me how Sierra Leone didn't get a foul.

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I have not yet seen the overhead view info, but they showed a few replays on FanDuel TV Which left me feeling that both the 11 and two were consistently bumping into one another rather than it being exclusively one-way. SIERRA LEONE definitely has a tendency to drift inward (toward the rail) and the 11 kept drifting outward a bit. I think their minor interference with one another probably cost both of them the chance to catch the leader, but I don’t think it was a true foul. Nor was the squeeze that DAN got on the rail from the fading leader TRACK PHANTOM. Minor stuff not a “move down” situation.

[QuikSand]

I made a future bet on MYSTIK DAN after his prep win several weeks ago, and sitting on that kept him off the top of my bets today.

I didn't cash anything today, but ended up ahead for the race overall with the old ticket, and I also have a good price locked in for a Preakness future bet via one of the sportsbooks.

Last year I hit MAGE on top with my last bet, a "what if I have most of it right but not quite" ticket... did the same thing today and used both SIERRA LEONE and FOREVER YOUNG both on that ticket... but didn't have the combo of 3/2/X anywhere.

[QuikSand]

I’m off DAN today (so are a lot of bettors, he’s a tepid 5/2) and I’m on the 9 IMAGINATION to wire the field. 8 is the buzz horse, though.

[GrantDawg]

My wife is happy. She loves a grey, and Sieze The Grey definitely seized the race.

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[QuikSand]

welp, had the right idea (race is there to be stolen on the front end), wrong horse to do it

i thought it would be 6 and 9 out front, but i had the 9 as the better of the two... Baffert shortly before the race all but said "i don't think he's good enough but maybe we'll see" so that didn't buoy confidence as he is often a remarkably straight shooter in that setting... anyway the 6 looked great and got a terrific ride for a nice win

had two tickets using 9/6/538 (the correct order of the top four, just with my phony on top of them all) but none with the 6 on top

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

welp, had the right idea (race is there to be stolen on the front end), wrong horse to do it

i thought it would be 6 and 9 out front, but i had the 9 as the better of the two... Baffert shortly before the race all but said "i don't think he's good enough but maybe we'll see" so that didn't buoy confidence as he is often a remarkably straight shooter in that setting... anyway the 6 looked great and got a terrific ride for a nice win

had two tickets using 9/6/538 (the correct order of the top four, just with my phony on top of them all) but none with the 6 on top

I just kept expecting him to fall off. When the crowd started to close I thought he was done, but he just kept chugging.