Sports betting?

[Lathum]

One of the online books I bet at is doing a promo Cowboys +22.5. Max bet is only $20. I took it but I'm not sure its a good bet....

[B & B]

*Slaps Lathum

[HomerSimpson98]

I like the bet!

[stevew]

In a winner takes all pool for something around $800. I don’t think the bets can be changed. I’m tied, we both have Pittsburgh, nobody else can tie because the couple people 1 game below all have Pitt as well. My tiebreaker total is 41 and the guy I’m tied with picked 69(oof). I’m assuming my hedge is (fanduel) over 54.5 points at +650 and I should wager about 115$ on this? Any better suggestions?

[Butter]

Depends on how risk averse you are, or how crucial it is for you to lock in a win while losing some profit. If you make that bet, your winner takes all take is reduced to $685. I don't know how much you put in the winner take all pool.

Personally, I would wager just enough to make back the money I bet in the winner take all pool, so at least I broke even, but I don't take as big of a bite to the winnings.

Alternatively, you could just bet the straight over, or something lower like over 46.5 at +210, and give yourself a chance of a win both ways.

[Butter]

So what happened stevew, looks like you lost by a point which is tough

[Giovanni20]

The only a way to make a living on gambling is simply having your own betting company

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Butter

So what happened stevew, looks like you lost by a point which is tough

Sorry for no update. I just did a me70/them30 split that morning which was less than I would have made on the hedge but removed the hassle of setting up an account somewhere. Basically I looked at it like turning 20$ into enough money to buy a PS5.

[Butter]

nice

[Lathum]

Suffered quite literally the worst beat of my life last night. Had in game LSU-K-state under 56.5. LSU scores on a 4th and 13 off a backfoot prayer TD pass with 3:35 left to put it on 56. Last play of the game down 4 TDs they play action and throw a 80 yard TD pass to put it over. Never seen a team do that. Worst beat ever.

[RainMaker]






Presented without comment


[miked]

Thread resurrections...what sites to people use to bet on sports games. Seems like there are thousands...casual betting really.

[Lathum]

Cavaliers' J.B. Bickerstaff says he's been threatened by gamblers - ESPN

"There's no doubt about it that it's crossed the line," Bickerstaff said. "The amount of times where I'm standing up there and we may have a 10-point lead and the spread is 11 and people are yelling at me to leave the guys in so that we can cover the spread, it's ridiculous.

This was entirely predictable. I believe I argued at some point with people here this would happen.

[sovereignstar v2]

A lot of good has come from gambling, so no one could have ever predicted that. Good on you, Lathum

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

A lot of good has come from gambling, so no one could have ever predicted that. Good on you, Lathum

I'm not understanding your comment. Are you talking about tax revenue? Or are you trying to be funny about something and it went over my head?

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Cavaliers' J.B. Bickerstaff says he's been threatened by gamblers - ESPN



This was entirely predictable. I believe I argued at some point with people here this would happen.

And yet the league seems to have done very little to prepare the players, coaches and executives for the line between sports and legal gambling gets slimmer and more blurry. Especially if there is a belief that making the threats won't cause you legal trouble i.e. no charges.

[miami_fan]

Sources: NBA eyes Raptors' Jontay Porter for betting issues - ESPN

Drip...drip...drip...

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Sources: NBA eyes Raptors' Jontay Porter for betting issues - ESPN

Drip...drip...drip...

Think the leagues have problems?

Anybody that was doing prop bets on Jontay Porter needs to be institutionalized until their sanity can be restored.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Think the leagues have problems?

Anybody that was doing prop bets on Jontay Porter needs to be institutionalized until their sanity can be restored.

Or have their betting limits set to unlimited to rinse them for every shilling they have. Depends on who they may be placing bets with.

[molson]

The leagues fought legalized gambling for decades, and were criticized for that and for pretending gambling didn't exist and wasn't a part of why people watched sports, if I remember right.

They lost that battle and had to adapt. And they really had no choice at that point but to get involved with the apps and share data and trends try to keep tabs on what their players were up to. Players getting caught is that system working. And there was always going to be players who got caught. I'm sure there's many more who aren't. But they have to catch enough to deter.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by molson

The leagues fought legalized gambling for decades, and were criticized for that and for pretending gambling didn't exist and wasn't a part of why people watched sports, if I remember right.

They lost that battle and had to adapt. And they really had no choice at that point but to get involved with the apps and share data and trends try to keep tabs on what their players were up to. Players getting caught is that system working. And there was always going to be players who got caught. I'm sure there's many more who aren't. But they have to catch enough to deter.

Not sure it is as many as you think.

One thing most people don't realize is there are pretty low limits on how much you can bet on these props through legalized online books. I'm talking the most is $50-100. Even spread, total, and money line bets will have low enough limits not to make cheating worthwhile.

I suspect it boils down to stupidity more than anything.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Lathum

One thing most people don't realize is there are pretty low limits on how much you can bet on these props through legalized online books. I'm talking the most is $50-100. .

from ESPN

A sportsbook industry source told ESPN that multiple betting accounts attempted to bet large amounts, upward of $10,000 and $20,000, on Porter unders in the January game against the Clippers. Betting limits on NBA player props vary by sportsbook and customer but are typically around $1,000 to $2,000.

Despite those limits, the Porter prop bets were the #1 moneymaker across all NBA betting on both days in question.

[Lathum]

I have done a lot of sportsbetting but have never seen a prop bet with limits that high.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I have done a lot of sportsbetting but have never seen a prop bet with limits that high.

The possibly obvious, just unspoken in the article, answer could be that sharps were using beards. Specifically established losers who had higher limits, trying to make Porter a cash cow.

This smells of being a pretty coordinated play.

And with Porter on a two-way deal worth only about $450k, it might not take an insane amount of money in his direction to make it interesting for him.

[molson]

Porter also has a premium discord room where you can pay $50/month to get his stock picks.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

The possibly obvious, just unspoken in the article, answer could be that sharps were using beards. Specifically established losers who had higher limits, trying to make Porter a cash cow.

This smells of being a pretty coordinated play.

And with Porter on a two-way deal worth only about $450k, it might not take an insane amount of money in his direction to make it interesting for him.

Haralabos Voulgaris spoke to this exact thing over the weekend before this specific story came out.

[CrimsonFox]

Pete Rose trolls Shohai Otani

[albionmoonlight]

In a few years the "Calvin Ridley used the team WiFi to place bets on non-football sports" scandal will seem so quaint.

[albionmoonlight]

We're gonna be averaging a Black Sox level event every couple of years, I suspect.

[Ghost Econ]

I mean, teams don't really care. They just have to act shocked.

Look at Ivan Toney with Brentford. He bet for years, including on his team and himself. He continued to play during the investigation, got 6 months, and is now back and playing for England and likely has a big money move coming this summer.

The only people it will really hurt in the long run are guys like Porter who are marginal players. It will make them untouchable while more important players will just take their lumps. No different than having domestic issues.

It's just how the world works. Hell, the fucking Republican nominee is in debt to who the fuck knows, assaults women, and 40% of the country thinks he's Jesus 2.0. People will accept gambling in a few years and only care when it's their rivals best player getting a light sentence.

[miami_fan]

Tucupita Marcano gets lifetime MLB ban for betting on baseball - ESPN

Huh?

Marcano, currently a member of the San Diego Padres, was found to have placed 231 MLB-related bets, including 25 that MLB says included wagers on Pirates games while he was on the team's major league roster.

Marcano bet almost exclusively on the outcomes of games and lost all of his parlay bets involving the Pirates, winning just 4.3% of all of his MLB-related bets, according to the league.

I know the gambling setup is the house is supposed to win more than you win. I don't know what a good gambling win percentage would be. But 4.3%? He made 231 MLB bets and won like 10 of them? No disrespect but that included bets on the 2022 and/or 2023 Pirates?

Was he trying to win his bets or not?

[henry296]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Tucupita Marcano gets lifetime MLB ban for betting on baseball - ESPN

Huh?





I know the gambling setup is the house is supposed to win more than you win. I don't know what a good gambling win percentage would be. But 4.3%? He made 231 MLB bets and won like 10 of them? No disrespect but that included bets on the 2022 and/or 2023 Pirates?

Was he trying to win his bets or not?

I think I read most of them are parlays, so if you are betting multi-leg ones you might average 25/30-1 and therefore a 4% win rate might be ok.

[Lathum]

Parlays are sucker bets

[JPhillips]

Bally's Reds parlays this season are something like 2-52

Don't bet on what the casino is advertising.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Bally's Reds parlays this season are something like 2-52

Don't bet on what the casino is advertising.

There is a reason whenever someone hits one of these crazy 12 team parlays and wins 120K on a 4 dollar bet the books splash it all over social media

[SirFozzie]

Here's how much they made from the parlays:

Player 1’s performance in several statistical categories during the January 26 Game was under the designated amounts set by Betting Company 1 in its prop bets related to Player 1. Thus, several bettors, including co-conspirators, who wagered the “under” on prop bets related to Player 1’s performance for the January 26 Game won those bets. For example, a relative of a co-conspirator placed a $10,000 parlay bet through Betting Company 1 on the “under” for Player 1’s three pointers, assists and steals. As a result of Player 1 removing himself from the January 26 game, the bet was successful and the relative won $85,000 (netting a profit of $75,000). Additionally, a co-conspirator placed a $7,000 parlay bet through Betting Company 1 on the “under” for Player 1’s three pointers, points, assists and rebounds. As a result of Player 1 removing himself from the January 26 Game, the bet was successful and the co-conspirator won $40,250 (netting a profit of $33,250).

rior to a game on March 20, 2024 (the March 20 Game), Pham and his co-conspirators discussed in a Telegram group chat that Player 1 would be removing himself early from the game, claiming that he felt ill. They agreed to share the profits for money won on successful under bets placed on Player 1, and that Pham would receive approximately 24% of the profits. On March 20, 2024, Pham and his co-conspirators met at a casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey, and placed several bets on Player 1. After playing just three minutes and recording zero points, three rebounds and zero assists, Player 1 removed himself from the March 20 Game, complaining he felt ill. Several bettors, including the co-conspirators, who wagered the under on prop bets related to Player 1’s performance won those bets. In total, the defendant and his co-conspirators netted over $1 million in profits.

[Saul Goode]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I know the gambling setup is the house is supposed to win more than you win. I don't know what a good gambling win percentage would be. But 4.3%? He made 231 MLB bets and won like 10 of them? No disrespect but that included bets on the 2022 and/or 2023 Pirates?

Was he trying to win his bets or not?

To break even betting -110, you need to hit 52.38% of your bets.