POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[Lathum]

Trump went after John Deer tonight at, of all places, a town hall with farmers, saying he would put a 200% tariff on their products made outside the US.

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Trump went after John Deer tonight at, of all places, a town hall with farmers, saying he would put a 200% tariff on their products made outside the US.

Do farmers like John Deere? I know they _need_ John Deere, but from what I understand the company has been actively antagonizing their customers in recent years with technology that makes it impossible to repair their own gear. Throw in a good rant about producing stuff in the good ol' U S of A and it seems like a plausible enough idea (not saying it went well, just it doesn't sound outlandish from a high level concept).

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

Do farmers like John Deere? I know they _need_ John Deere, but from what I understand the company has been actively antagonizing their customers in recent years with technology that makes it impossible to repair their own gear. Throw in a good rant about producing stuff in the good ol' U S of A and it seems like a plausible enough idea (not saying it went well, just it doesn't sound outlandish from a high level concept).

There are still farmers that use the brand as a part of their personality, but the company has definitely taken a hit in reputation recently. I imagine them moving manufacturing to Mexico will erode the brand further. I think most farmers will like this idea.

[cuervo72]

They're gonna get subsidies to pay for the stuff anyway, right?

[albionmoonlight]

People don't understand tariffs.

If Trump says he'll punish John Deere for moving jobs to Mexico with a 200% tariff, that's horrible policy (and I think illegal under NAFTA), but it's, IMO, smart limbic stem politics.

[Ben E Lou]

Random thing I just realized: Ryan Routh (class of '84) and Mark Robinson (based on his bday, likely either '86 or '87) were at Grimsley High School together for at least a year.
#DoBetterGenX

[Thomkal]

Better start going through the Yearbooks now Ben to get a heads up on the next one.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Random thing I just realized: Ryan Routh (class of '84) and Mark Robinson (based on his bday, likely either '86 or '87) were at Grimsley High School together for at least a year.
#DoBetterGenX

The lead poisoning really messed us up.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

socialist

You're smarter than this, Jon. No way in hell do you really think Kamala Harris is a socialist.

[Atocep]

Has anyone else seen the upcoming documentary footage of Trump speaking to Lev Parnas and deciding right there to remove the Ukraine ambassador because Parnas made some shit?

I can't imagine how badly Putin and others were able to play him in private meetings.

[Atocep]

We also have Bernie Moreno telling people at a campaign stop that abortion shouldn't be an issue for women over 50.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

Do farmers like John Deere? I know they _need_ John Deere, but from what I understand the company has been actively antagonizing their customers in recent years with technology that makes it impossible to repair their own gear. Throw in a good rant about producing stuff in the good ol' U S of A and it seems like a plausible enough idea (not saying it went well, just it doesn't sound outlandish from a high level concept).

I think all of this is true, but there is an identity to the company that is similar to what you have in other parts of the country with owning non-American-made vehicles. Like "oh, it's nice you got a truck - too bad it isn't an F150." I think the identity is that having a John Deere tractor means something and you still see a lot of people wearing the ball caps and t-shirts. Plus, the Venn diagram of people that vote for Trump and people that are into a status item made by John Deere is a big overlap, whereas the people that fit into those two categories AND understand foreign manufacturing and the nuances of what it means is not going to be a real high portion.

[stevew]

“No tax on tips or social security” is another blatant lie. How does he expect to pay for that. It’s not an edict, it has to be in legislation. But I’m sure it moves the needle for a few low information people.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by stevew

“No tax on tips or social security” is another blatant lie. How does he expect to pay for that. It’s not an edict, it has to be in legislation. But I’m sure it moves the needle for a few low information people.

Project 2025 purposes getting rid of mandatory overtime pay. Instead, companies would have the option of converting OT to PTO/Comp time.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by stevew

“No tax on tips or social security” is another blatant lie. How does he expect to pay for that. It’s not an edict, it has to be in legislation. But I’m sure it moves the needle for a few low information people.

There is so much he is promising that has zero chance of actually happening, and he is not done. He is going to continue to make as many wild promises as he needs to so that he can keep the press' attention and hopefully hit on something that low information voters really likes. His semi-protectionism is one of the things that endeared him to the white working class in the first place, so he can keep making more and more protectionism promises along with as many free giveaways a he can think of because he knows he will have zero accountability on actually doing any of it. It honestly isn't his worst campaign strategy.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Project 2025 purposes getting rid of mandatory overtime pay. Instead, companies would have the option of converting OT to PTO/Comp time.

This isn't "Project 2025" Trump. This is "Santa Claus" Trump. "Santa Claus" Trump is what he hopes will get him the win, so he can go back to golfing without worrying about going to jail while his cronies govern by Project 2025.

[Lathum]

So already in Ohio civilians have the right to file criminal charges and a Haitian organization in Springfield just did that against Trump and Vance. The charges actually look legit.

[PilotMan]

Trump creating loopholes in the tax code sort of goes against the big push to simplify the tax code and close looholes the Rs were so on about in trump's first term.

[GrantDawg]

The DNI briefed Trump tonight that they are tracking credible threats from Iran to try to assassinate him.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The DNI briefed Trump tonight that they are tracking credible threats from Iran to try to assinate him.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

I think Trump has already been assinated.

[stevew]

No taxes, paid for private schools, govt covered IVF among other things i cant even remember. He may as well promise free insulin and free Ozempic. Throw in shit like free after hours vet care and Wal Mart staying open 24 hours again. Bring back the McRib as a permanent item. Unlimited off-road diesel. Tax free ammunition. Doubling military pay. Training more traffic cops, but only ones who pull over “poor drivers”. Mandating tour Uber driver speaks English. No more overseas phone support. Etc etc.

[GrantDawg]

Kamala Harris is doing a sit down interview with Stephanie Ruhle tonight on MSNBC. I wonder if this is the first or will it be the only?

[JPhillips]

Reading some speculation that pollsters are in one of two camps for a likely voter model. One has Harris up 4 points or so and one has the race tied.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Reading some speculation that pollsters are in one of two camps for a likely voter model. One has Harris up 4 points or so and one has the race tied.

I did some googling the other day and saw someplace that the NYT/Sienna poll has worked in an assumption of under 30 voters at a low rate compared to other polls and previous elections. That could explain why their polls are so different this cycle. I thought that was interesting.

[JPhillips]

Nothing public yet, but it's being reported that NYC mayor Adams has been indicted by the feds.

[Ksyrup]

I read an interesting fact which makes sense as i think about the history of our presidential elections, I guess, that a Democrat has not been elected to replace a Democrat since 1856, and on the Republicansl side, it's only happened in 1988 and 1924.

I like the fact that we've swung from one side to the other pretty consistently for a couple centuries as a collective electoral checks and balances thing, but that feels particularly dangerous when one party has decided to move in a much more extreme direction than the other. Complacency and 'things will be just fine as they have for decades and decades" is all well and good, and has borne itself out for the most part, until it ceases to be true. Because by then, it will be too late.

It also means of course that whether or not Trump wins, the GOP will likely be in the oval office in 2028 or 2032 regardless of what happens.

[JPhillips]

Amazing how MAGA is firmly in the pro-Adams camp now that he's been indicted.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

It also means of course that whether or not Trump wins, the GOP will likely be in the oval office in 2028 or 2032 regardless of what happens.

Maybe it is just wishful thinking but I think the post Trump GOP has real issues.

No one is going to capture the MAGA crowd the way Trump has. We saw Desantis flame out, if Trump/Vance lose I suspect Trump blames it on JD and torpedoes his career, Haley won't drive the MAGA voters, and then you are left with a bunch of unserious people like Vivek, Don Jr., etc...

Meanwhile Harris would have the benefit of being incumbent and the dems have a strong bench with guys like Shapiro, etc...

Now obviously there are a number of factors we don't know will exist, but all things being equal Trump has ran out the old guard and made the rest of the party all about devotion to one man.

[Thomkal]

Rudy Guillani has now been disbarred in DC too:


x.com

[JPhillips]

ping: Lawyers.

Is this a good strategy when dealing with the feds?

"The Adams Staffer also agreed to speak with FBI agents and falsely denied the criminal conduct of herself and ADAMS, among others. At one point during her voluntary interview, the Adams Staffer excused herselfto a bathroom and, while there, deleted the encrypted messaging applications she had used to communicate with ADAMS , the Promoter, the Turkish Official, the Airline Manager, and others."

[Thomkal]

Not a lawyer, but gonna guess that's a no.

[bronconick]

Worked for the Secret Service

[Edward64]

One of the key lessons learn from watching all those YT videos with cops & perps, never talk to the cops if you're guilty. Call your lawyer from jail and start there.

I'm amazed at perps talking even after Miranda is given.

[albionmoonlight]

Never talk to the cops, even if you think you are innocent.

I've had clients confess to crimes because they didn't realize what they did was a crime and they thought they were exonerating themselves.

[GrantDawg]

You need a lawyer just as much if innocent as you do if you are guilty.

[JPhillips]

So the FBI asked Adams for his password. Adams said he'd love to help. The thing is, he changed the password because he didn't want his staff to accidentally destroy evidence but wouldn't ya know, he for got the new password and couldn't help the FBI.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Worked for the Secret Service

And Urban Meyer

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

So the FBI asked Adams for his password. Adams said he'd love to help. The thing is, he changed the password because he didn't want his staff to accidentally destroy evidence but wouldn't ya know, he for got the new password and couldn't help the FBI.

wow

[Ksyrup]

This quote is almost exactly a year old, and maybe it was posted here or I saw it last year and forgot it, but holy crap this is one hell of a funny quote:

“We always get the blame,” said Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho), a senior appropriator. “Name one time that we’ve shut the government down and we haven’t got the blame.”

[Edward64]

I know some will take exception to what NC has done but I'm okay with the idea. It's not unusual in my line of work to do data cleanup/archival, it's actually a "best practice".

The article doesn't get into it but the issue I see is (1) how will people know if they've been rolled off or how easy is it to doublecheck (2) is it the same process to re-register as the orig ... assume it is (3) how long will it take to resolve any issues/discrepancies.

Ideally, this would have been done 3 months ago. Forty days is tight. Dems just need to tell everyone to check their status ... now.

Access to this page has been denied

North Carolina’s State Board of Elections has removed 747,000 people from its list of registered voters within the last 20 months, officials announced Thursday in a press release.

The State Board of Elections in the release said the majority of those stripped from the rolls were deemed ineligible to be registered because they had moved within the state and did not register their new address, or because they did not participate in the past two federal elections, prompting an inactive status.

Other reasons for removal included death, felony convictions, out-of-state moves and personal requests for removal, the board said.

North Carolina is one of seven swing states likely to decide the presidential election between Vice President Harris and former President Trump.

I would be interested in the split between registered Dems vs Rep vs Independant, that would be an interesting stat.

[thesloppy]

[Ksyrup]

This part is an interesting explanation in relatable terms.

According to Last's analysis, this means that "almost half the people who like Donald Trump don’t like JD Vance."

Last explained this phenomena by likening Vance to a notorious pro-wrestler named Sean "X-Pac" Waltman who drew a specific type of response (or heat) from the audience.

While all wrestlers seek to elicit heat — be it cheers for the "faces" or boos for the "heels" — another kind of reaction is less desirable, and it's called "X-Pac heat."

"This is when the audience boos and insults the wrestler not just because they are a heel and they hate the gimmick," explains The Sportster. "They boo because they hate the wrestler unrelated to the character or gimmick they are portraying."

It's also reportedly called "Go Away Heat," and was expressed by a pro-wrestling fan's sign that read, "Sir! I feel compelled to stress that we are not booing because of your effective heel work, we are booing because you are simply awful."

[thesloppy]

That is the best X-Pac based political analysis that I've ever read.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I know some will take exception to what NC has done but I'm okay with the idea. It's not unusual in my line of work to do data cleanup/archival, it's actually a "best practice".

The article doesn't get into it but the issue I see is (1) how will people know if they've been rolled off or how easy is it to doublecheck (2) is it the same process to re-register as the orig ... assume it is (3) how long will it take to resolve any issues/discrepancies.

Ideally, this would have been done 3 months ago. Forty days is tight. Dems just need to tell everyone to check their status ... now.

Access to this page has been denied



I would be interested in the split between registered Dems vs Rep vs Independant, that would be an interesting stat.

Yeah, this is normal cleanup of voters who died, moved, haven't voted in a couple of election cycles. Every state does it. If they were doing it right now it would be an issue but over the past 20 months is not a problem.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ryche

Yeah, this is normal cleanup of voters who died, moved, haven't voted in a couple of election cycles. Every state does it. If they were doing it right now it would be an issue but over the past 20 months is not a problem.

Oh, that’s good. So plenty of communication, widely publicized and people know how to check?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Oh, that’s good. So plenty of communication, widely publicized and people know how to check?

I know in Ohio it takes 15 seconds for you to look up if you are registered to vote.

[albionmoonlight]

I, as an NC voter, just set a stopwatch and looked up my registration status.

27 seconds.

[albionmoonlight]

The headline made it sound like this just dropped. But the article notes that it has been over the course of 20 months.

No one (Dem or GOP) wants ineligible people voting. Keeping the rolls updated is good.

[Ben E Lou]

FWIW, I just checked my SC registration. Pretty sure it took less than a minute, probably around 30 seconds like albion. We moved to NC in 2014. Last time I checked out of curiosity--either 2020 or 2022, likely the former--I was still on the roll there, so at least six years. I'm finally off of it now.

[Lathum]

Just checked in Jersey, took about 4 seconds.

Not that Jersey matters unless you listen to right wing X trolls who think Trump should be winning all 50 states.