Israeli-Hamas War (Oct 2023)

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Reading some people that know the region well, they are questioning how well and effectively Hezbollah can go on. They say Nasrallah was basically the only leader that could keep the organization together, and the one that Iran had the most faith in. Now in the matter of days they completely severed the head off the snake.

Those people do not know the region well, good lord.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Those people do not know the region well, good lord.

I'm glad you know better than actual Lebanese people, but I wouldn't expect any less.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I'm glad you know better than actual Lebanese people, but I wouldn't expect any less.

It's literally a guerilla group known for its flexibility and "next man up" structure. People said the same thing after al-Musawi was killed as well as many others. They just keep getting stronger because the West hasn't figured out how these groups operate and why they're successful.

But hey, maybe this will be the time they'll be right. Broken clocks and all that.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It's literally a guerilla group known for its flexibility and "next man up" structure. People said the same thing after al-Musawi was killed as well as many others. They just keep getting stronger because the West hasn't figured out how these groups operate and why they're successful.

But hey, maybe this will be the time they'll be right. Broken clocks and all that.

These guys have been in leadership for decades. I mean, some of them were planners of the attack on the Marines in 1983. These aren't swappable leaders that you can find in other groups. And it wasn't just one leader, it was the whole leadership group. It will take time to rebuild what they had in place without these guys. Hezbollah isn't as much a guerrilla organization as a political party with funding coming from Iran. The political influence is the thing they have lost with this.

If Nasrallah is dead, and it’s still a big if, it will have a massive impact. In 32 years he has built up the organisation in his image, as well as establishing his status as the most central non-Iranian figure in proxies network, advising Supreme Leader Khamenei on strategy >

— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) September 27, 2024

[GrantDawg]

What’s next for #Hezbollah, if #Nasrallah is killed.
- On the political level: As I said in my succession paper a few years back, not only he is the most charismatic Hezbollah leader (he speaks colloquial Arabic; not Fusha, he smiles, he jokes), and no one else does that.
- He…
— Hanin Ghaddar (@haningdr) September 27, 2024

[Edward64]

Many of the next in line are probably crippled or out of commission in the near term.

If Israel is going to invade, soon is as good of time as any.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Many of the next in line are probably crippled or out of commission in the near term.

If Israel is going to invade, soon is as good of time as any.

No time would be as good a time as any. It would be a massive mistake if they do, but it wouldn't surprise me of Netanyahu.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Many of the next in line are probably crippled or out of commission in the near term.

If Israel is going to invade, soon is as good of time as any.

On one hand, their economy is on the verge of collapse and a ground war in Lebanon could be a disaster. They're struggling against Hamas which is not in the same stratosphere in terms of fighting. But they do have air superiority and could just keep bombing endlessly if they want before going in.

On the other hand, Bibi's approval goes up with each new war they start. And it keeps him out of prison. Plus a full scale war before the election hurts Harris a lot and helps Trump, which is an added benefit for Bibi. And he can always hand Trump that Reagan moment on a ceasefire if things do go south.

My gut says full scale war is inevitable and very soon. They really won't find a better time to do it with the Hezbollah command in a state of flux.

[RainMaker]

If anyone wants to learn more about Hezbollah I highly recommend the book Warriors of God. It should be on Audible or the library apps. Well written and gives a lot of insight into the group and it's structure.