POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ryche

If Get Out The Vote efforts matter, Kamala is going to win and fairly easily. Republicans have no ground game compared to Dems or compared to what they had in 2016 and 2020.

It's been one of the many weird things in this election. The Trump campaign has generally been hurting for money so bad that they haven't built up any ground game at all. What ground game they do have they've handed over to their PACs, like Elon, and those groups are mostly focused on rural areas and making sure those people vote rather than hitting more densely populated areas.

[albionmoonlight]

*If* get out the vote efforts matter.

One of the crazy things, I think, is that we spend literal billions on presidential campaigns, and I think we still don't have a great idea of what works and what does not. Where is the best ROI?

How much do candidate in-person rallies matter?
How much does tacking to the middle matter?
How much does consolidating the base matter?
How much does TV advertising matter?
How much do get out the vote boots on the ground matter?
How much does encouraging early voting matter?
How much do yard signs matter?

We don't have a huge sample size--these things happen once every four years. And eleventy-billion variables exist. And the people who tend to do the analysis and post-mortems tend to be insiders who want a certain thing to be true. (If I am a politial consultant who focuses on selling TV ads, it is not hard to guess what my analysis will show vis a vis the importance of ads vs. get-out-the vote)

It seems like if McDonalds had a billion-dollar product launch, they'd know to the second decimal place where the best ROI of their marketing spending would come from.

But with campaigns? Somehow, it is still just "we've decided to focus on X" based on gut feelings.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I don't at all buy that Harris is better than 2020 version of Biden. There's a part of me that wants Biden to go on an I Told You So tour if Harris doesn't win.

Why? He was losing. Polls where bad and going the wrong way for him. There is no way he could handle the campaign schedule she as had, and the more he did interviews and puts himself out, the worse it would have been. He is not the Biden of 2020, we are not in the same situation as a country we were in 2020, and if Biden had stayed in all we would be doing is preparing for a Trump presidency.

[Ksyrup]

Yeah, while I agree Harris is not as good a candidate as Biden 2020, this is 2024 and she is miles ahead of Biden 2024 as a candidate. Even if she handily lost, there would be no basis for Biden to go on a "you all should eat crow" tour. If Harris loses, it just means Biden would have been trounced.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Atocep

It's been one of the many weird things in this election. The Trump campaign has generally been hurting for money so bad that they haven't built up any ground game at all. What ground game they do have they've handed over to their PACs, like Elon, and those groups are mostly focused on rural areas and making sure those people vote rather than hitting more densely populated areas.

And those PAC's may not be up to the task:


Exclusive: Trump ground game in key states flagged as potentially fake | Donald Trump | The Guardian

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Yeah, while I agree Harris is not as good a candidate as Biden 2020, this is 2024 and she is miles ahead of Biden 2024 as a candidate. Even if she handily lost, there would be no basis for Biden to go on a "you all should eat crow" tour. If Harris loses, it just means Biden would have been trounced.

If Harris loses, Biden should bear much of the blame. Had he done the right thing and announced early in his presidency that he wouldn't be running for a second term, the Democratic party would have had a full primary season for a candidate to secure the nomination.

[flere-imsaho]

OK Biden, yes, but really a very broad array of the Democratic establishment. The Democratic party needs root-and-branch reform regardless of whether Harris wins or not, but if she loses it really needs to be comprehensive.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

The Republican party needs root-and-branch reform regardless of whether Trump wins or not, but if he loses it really needs to be comprehensive.

fixed

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

If Harris loses, Biden should bear much of the blame. Had he done the right thing and announced early in his presidency that he wouldn't be running for a second term, the Democratic party would have had a full primary season for a candidate to secure the nomination.

That is completely backwards.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

OK Biden, yes, but really a very broad array of the Democratic establishment. The Democratic party needs root-and-branch reform regardless of whether Harris wins or not, but if she loses it really needs to be comprehensive.

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

fixed

And you are both right

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

OK Biden, yes, but really a very broad array of the Democratic establishment. The Democratic party needs root-and-branch reform regardless of whether Harris wins or not, but if she loses it really needs to be comprehensive.

They've needed it badly since losing in 2016, but they're so focused on fighting off MAGA (Tbf, does need to be done) to sit down and have the debate. And the Republican Party as is should probably be tossed out and replaced by a conservative party that isn't hooked on white nationalism and strongman worship.

[Brian Swartz]

This focus on 'fix the party' will never cease to amaze me. The parties mostly are what they are because people want them to be that. Most Republicans want Trumpism, rather than a sane conservative party. Similar things to a somewhat lesser degree are true of Democrats.

You have to fix the people first before you can try to fix the party.