POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[cartman]

lol, he's suing CBS for $10 billion because he says they deceptively edited the Kamala interview for 60 Minutes

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by cartman

lol, he's suing CBS for $10 billion because he says they deceptively edited the Kamala interview for 60 Minutes

I hope the judge tosses it and forces Trump to pay the CBS legal fees.

[RainMaker]

Florida man suing a New York company registered out of Deleware in the Northern District of Texas. What a country!

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by cartman

lol, he's suing CBS for $10 billion because he says they deceptively edited the Kamala interview for 60 Minutes

He's grasping at straws. I fully expect if he loses to run to a non-extradition nation and tweetshit for the rest of his sad (hopefully short) life.

Dependent on how things play out, if Democrats get a majority however slight in both houses, I fully expect him to go apopletic about fraud and how his true believers should resist.

If the Trumpanzees gets either house, I fully expect sabotaging any sort of progress at the bequest of Orange Shitler.

If I'm reading things right there are 33 seats open in 2026 in the Senate; 39 in the House.

[JPhillips]

Either he loses and drops the case or he wins and this may be the first step in Orbanizing the media.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Either he loses and drops the case or he wins and this may be the first step in Orbanizing the media.

It's the latter. Elon sued Media Matters and advertiers in the same district and has gotten a bunch of favorable rulings.

[JPhillips]

But he has to win on Tuesday for it to work that way.

[GrantDawg]

This seems fine. No problem here.

NEW: At a church in rural Georgia, attendees were informed that they are battling a “spiritual war” against election fraud.

Then they were told how to fight back: show up en masse to pressure local officials to withhold certification of the election. https://t.co/kzmNJwwhJS

— Anna Bower (@AnnaBower) October 31, 2024

[thesloppy]

It is pretty incredible how much legit election interference the people 'concerned with' election interference have accomplished in the past few election cycles.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

It is pretty incredible how much legit election interference the people 'concerned with' election interference have accomplished in the past few election cycles.

This is the obvious direction we were headed in. I won't be the least bit surprised if we see some legit election fraud come out of this election. I doubt it will be anything terribly wide scale, but I think we'll see more than we've ever seen. Trump and the right wing media has their supporters so wound up they'll think they're just evening the score with dem cheating.

[Ksyrup]

You mean like this?

MAGA guy steals two ballots by stuffing them up his shirt when they let the public observe testing, then his accomplice causes a scene and claims elections workers “lost” the ballots. Then they post video to Facebook. Expect more of this MAGA dipshittery. https://t.co/sfkftNb8Ai

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) October 29, 2024

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

You mean like this?

MAGA guy steals two ballots by stuffing them up his shirt when they let the public observe testing, then his accomplice causes a scene and claims elections workers “lost” the ballots. Then they post video to Facebook. Expect more of this MAGA dipshittery. https://t.co/sfkftNb8Ai

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) October 29, 2024

Yeah it's going to get worse. I've already seen multiple situations where guys have tried to go at election workers for denying them voting because they tried to wear Trump shit while voting. We had the guy show up to an early voting location with a machete to intimidate Harris voters. Trump has been on social media telling people a guy tried to vote 2,500 times and got caught, which isn't at all what happened.

[kingfc22]

It’s incredibly sad to see how one fucked up individual, Trump, has single handedly rotted the entire democratic process and norms. And for what?

I guess 250 years is a good run in the grand scheme of things historically speaking. Dominant countries/kingdoms/etc don’t stay that way forever.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

It’s incredibly sad to see how one fucked up individual, Trump, has single handedly rotted the entire democratic process and norms. And for what?

I guess 250 years is a good run in the grand scheme of things historically speaking. Dominant countries/kingdoms/etc don’t stay that way forever.

This stuff sucks but come on. We haven't exactly been bastions of democracy over the past 250 years.

[JPhillips]

Trump can win, but I think I'd rather be Harris than him at the moment. She has a lot more resources, both people and money, committed to getting out the vote. The big worry is what GOP legislators and SCOTUS are willing to do to see Trump win.

[RainMaker]

This would seem to be good news for Dems.

Fulton, DeKalb and Cobb all running ahead of statewide turnout in Georgia. Gwinnett—which is sometimes a problem county irt turnout—getting close there too after not starting off all that great. https://t.co/N1P5bDVQgV

— ettingermentum (@ettingermentum) November 1, 2024

[RainMaker]

And more good news for the Dems as Marist is one of the best polls there is. Crazy that the polls show they trust Trump a little more on the economy and all they've done is run weird transgender ads in those states.

Marist's final polls from the Blue Wall:

—MI: Harris up 51/48
—PA: Harris up 50/48
—WI: Harris up 50/48

They last polled these in September. PA was tied, Harris was up 50/49 in WI & 52/47 in MI.

— Taniel (@Taniel) November 1, 2024

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

This stuff sucks but come on. We haven't exactly been bastions of democracy over the past 250 years.

2000 is proof positive.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

You mean like this?

Good thing they had the video surveillance. Hope he/accomplices end up spending some prison time.

[JPhillips]

Trump on Liz Cheney: "Let's put her with a rifle standing there with 9 barrels shooting at her. Let's see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face."

Probably better if a candidate didn't have firing squad fantasies.

[Lathum]

something something turn down the rhetoric....

Trump on Liz Cheney: "Let's put her with a rifle standing there with 9 barrels shooting at her. Let's see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face." pic.twitter.com/Mtx1fbLtwE

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 1, 2024

[GrantDawg]

As for the house races:



[Ksyrup]

Quit getting my hopes up! I'm fully in "expect the worst, crack a smile at could have been even more catastrophic" mode.

I guess there's always the fact that no matter how positive Tuesday may be, I still have the aftermath between Tuesday and early January to ground me in the realization that we're fucked one way or the other.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Since it's coming from the far right social media types, I can only assume it's being done to try to push reticent male voters to vote on Tuesday by planting a potentially false bit of news that Trump is in danger of losing unless men save the day, just to ring as many votes out of a dependable demographic as possible.

It's an easily targetable demographic since it's true that men favor Trump, so arguing women are going to push Harris to victory rings true even if they have no hard evidence to support the claim.

It is a very common technique. Pretty much every fundraising email/text/ad I see is from a Democrat saying that they are behind 47% to 48%. Close enough that I don't get discouraged. But still a point behind, so I can't afford to sit this one out.

So I suspect that some of this messaging is the same: Hey, we're down by 3 points in the 4th Quarter. We need y'all to show up on Tuesday!

But MAGA messaging, by and large, is all about showing strength. Trump is up by a billion. We have the votes, we just need to stop fraud, etc. Part of it is laying the groundwork for claiming fraud if he loses. Part of it is that his brand is strength and domination. We're winning by 49 points in the 4th quarter! Come join us on the sideline and be part of the rout!

So it is a little strange to see anyone on the right claiming that anything isn't going well.

[Lathum]

If Harris loses I think not picking Shapiro could be the reason why.

I get her not picking him at the time given the volatility of the Muslim vote but the campaign has basically ignored Muslims so if that was your plan why not have just picked him?

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Lathum

If Harris loses I think not picking Shapiro could be the reason why.

I get her not picking him at the time given the volatility of the Muslim vote but the campaign has basically ignored Muslims so if that was your plan why not have just picked him?

It'll be easy to pick certain things like this - or hell, Biden not giving it up months earlier - but first and foremost for me, I'm blaming Americans. Harris has not run a bad campaign. She's running against a guy who not only is showing a lot of the same aging/mental issues Biden was run out of the race for, but that's just the tip of the iceberg of his mountain of personal, character, and legal issues. The fact that it's even this close is not primarily the fault of the Harris campaign or any decisions she's made/not made.

But yeah, there's going to be a slew of over-analysis and specific post-mortem theories on how/why, etc., and some of that will certainly be valid in that they might have helped her eke out a thin win that she didn't get. But the bigger question is, how the hell did we get to where those slim margins mattered given her opponent?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

how the hell did we get to where those slim margins mattered given her opponent?

Because this is who we really are, at least half of us.

I have come to just accept that a large portion of the country either embraces his ideology or lacks the morals and enable it so eggs are thirty cents cheaper.

I truly will never understand how he has so much support, and IF we survive this chapter of our history this era will be looked upon along with the civil war as the most shameless time in our history.

[albionmoonlight]

Elections break brains.

Bush/Gore was a coin flip. Because Bush won, Karl Rove's scorched earth approach was "right." Had a few hundred votes gone a different way, Rove would have gone down as the guy who singlehandedly lost a winnable election after the Clinton impeachment.

This election looks like a coin flip. If Trump wins, the message will be to go all MAGA all the time. If Trump loses, the message will be that MAGA lost a winnable election.

All for the sake of how a few thousand ultra-low-information voters in the Midwest feel on Tuesday morning.

[Lathum]

I don't think there is one message. It depends on the tribe you belong to.

If you are MAGA and Trump loses it will be steal, steal, steal....if you are a dem it will be that enough sane Americans decided enough was enough.

Win or lose the narrative of this election will be about Trump.

[Ksyrup]

This is from today's Bulwark and echoes my posts yesterday about the economy:

During the doldrum middle years of Biden’s term—when America was finally paying the piper for years of big-time pandemic spending, supply chains were struggling to unsnarl themselves, and inflation outpaced wage growth—the public rapidly soured on the president’s economic stewardship. But then, even as economic indicators improved rapidly through late 2023 and 2024, the public stayed sour. Having revised their opinions once, they proved reluctant to shift them again.

This incongruity between the economic vibes and the economic facts was notable even by this summer. But the economic outlook has improved so much since this summer that it’s genuinely remarkable now. From the month before the COVID pandemic began to this September, U.S. prices have increased by 21.4 percent, while U.S. wages have increased by 26.3 percent, according to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data last month by the Center for American Progress. This wage growth wasn’t clustered at the top, either: the biggest real-wages beneficiaries over the past four years have been low-wage workers.

Say these were the only economic facts you knew about the present moment. Four-and-a-half years ago, America was enjoying what Trump routinely calls “the greatest economy in the history of the world.” Since then, unemployment has remained historically low, the stock market is historically up, and while prices outstripped wages for a period, wages have now surged back into the lead. If you want, you can argue that this represents only modest progress. And as today’s job reports shows—with far less than expected gains caused, in part, by hurricanes and labor strikes—the long-term stability of this economy remains unknown.

But that’s true of any economy. And surely a modest improvement over what was previously the “greatest economy” ever is still a pretty good economy!

And now imagine someone told you that the intervening years also saw a global pandemic that killed seven million people, ground global commerce to a temporary standstill, and caused massive shocks up and down the economy that reverberated for years. Suddenly “modest improvements over the previous status quo” would start to look less like something to be cheerful about and more like a genuine triumph.

There’s a reason that heavy inflation kills voters’ economic confidence. The price tags on items at the grocery store do not include cheerful reminders that the buyer’s purchasing power is improving too. When prices go up, it feels like somebody out there must have fucked up. But when you get a raise, you don’t thank the macroeconomic environment; you congratulate yourself on a job well done.

Even granting this, though, it’s hard to shake the sense that many voters’ vibes about the state of the economy have gotten well and truly wack. My mind keeps straying back to a quote a small-town North Carolina realtor gave the New York Times back in August, explaining his economic grouchiness: “The last four years, I’ve paid more tax than I’ve ever paid.”

What’s so remarkable about this? Income tax rates have been annually decreasing in North Carolina. The reason this guy is paying more tax than ever is because he is making more money than ever. This isn’t just determination to see cloud rather than silver lining; this is grouching about the sunburn you got from all that economic sunshine.

You have to wonder: Is there more Team Harris could have done to win the messaging fight? She and her boss spent the back half of 2023 making the steel man case for Bidenomics—was it wise to give that argument up just when the economy was starting to roar again?

[Ghost Econ]

People don't understand that if you barely move to the next tax bracket that you don't actually lose money... and I mean people with degrees. Prices are higher, so the fact that the earnings outpace it doesn't translate because it still went up and they wanted it at the other price.

[GrantDawg]

I'm going to point this out again, it is more than just people not noticing. Lower income households' largest costs are housing, transportation, and food. Rent increases out strip inflation (30.4% increase since 2020). Food increased 6% higher than the rate of inflation. Vehicles are the only thing that did increase over inflation, but since interest rates have greatly increased, you are making a bigger car payment for a lesser car. These are the cost that make people feel the economy is worse, and for lower income, even with an increase in pay, they are not seeing it when balancing their check book.

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[GrantDawg]

Oh, and part of transportation cost is insurance, which is jumping many, many ti.es the most of inflation. Ours has gone up 20% per YEAR in the last two years.

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[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Oh, and part of transportation cost is insurance, which is jumping many, many ti.es the most of inflation. Ours has gone up 20% per YEAR in the last two years.

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Have you been shopping around for different insurance quotes?

I've been switching companies pretty much every time my company raises my rates(which has been at least once a year) and I've always been able to find a better deal among one of the big companies.