POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

I mean, Trump is a terrible public speaker and see where it's gotten him. It seems like as long as you say the right words and act like you can do no wrong, they'll follow you. I think DeSantis failed because he, a) tried to challenge Trump, but also he seemed to back down if he thought he couldn't win. I think if DeSantis kissed the ring and didn't enter the primary, he'd be VP right now and in a far better position than Vance.

Say what you will about Trump but he has charisma. Seriously watch Musk speak at some of these rallies. It's really difficult to watch.

[Atocep]

Musk speaking is painful and cringe to watch. It's like an incel that just discovered the internet was given a platform.

And Trump definitely has charisma. DeSantis has zero and his mistake was not attacking Trump hard enough. You're not going to convince anyone to vote for you by telling everyone how great of a job your opponent did. The only thing DeSantis used to try to separate himself from Trump was covid, which Trump supporters don't care about.

No chance for DeSantis to be chosen as VP either. Trump wasn't going to choose anyone that likes the spotlight and would take attention away from him. I think DeSantis is done as a politician outside of Florida. He was exposed.

[Atocep]

Trump wants to put Herschel Walker in charge of a theoretical US Iron Dome.

[GrantDawg]

Jon Ralston made his prediction. He says Harris wins Nevada by .3%, and Sen. Rosen (D) will keep her Senate seat.

[GrantDawg]

I keep hearing the tell-tale on this election will be the late breakers are going Harris by an 8 point margin. Some will say it was the MSG rally, some will say it was the people holding out because of Gaza realizing Trump would be worse not just for Gaza but for them personally. I think that it is mostly that people were holding out because they are mad about inflation, but in the end they just can't stand Trump.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Trump wants to put Herschel Walker in charge of a theoretical US Iron Dome.

I want to trade Trump for 3 future Presidents and 3 future Vice Presidents.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Trump wants to put Herschel Walker in charge of a theoretical US Iron Dome.

Does he not know Walker played on offense?

[albionmoonlight]

Our washing machine is broken, and it is taking a bit to fix so I am at the laundromat right now. And I realize just how many political ads I managed to miss this season thanks to cord cutting. It is like I am in some circle of purgatory right now with a bad daytime TV show on interrupted by literally nothing but political ads.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Does he not know Walker played on offense?

Isn't that the best defense?

[Thomkal]

Went to the dentist today, and I usually have a bit of anxiety over it, but in the waiting room was a guy wearing a Trump shirt, hat, etc. So I was very happy to get called right away so I didn't have to look at him while I waited.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Atocep

If Trump loses there's going to be a lot of focus on that MSG rally. It served absolutely no purpose electorally and was done to feed his own ego. He's always wanted do to something at MSG and had the chance.

One crazy thing about that rally that I think is somewhat overlooked is we have a former president, running for reelection, days away from election day, having a campaign rally at one of the most prestigious venues in the country, and not a single politician of any merit showed up to support him. That's why he ended up having Tony Hinchcliffe, Rudy Giuliani, Sid Rosenberg, and Grant Cardone speaking.

He's got the C-team managing this campaign, it's why there's no strategy, no message discipline and zero desire to appeal to anyone in the middle. It's implosion, but when you're surrounded by devotees and your own media apparatuses, it's hard to imagine anything than your own reality.

[JPhillips]

If Trump wins it will mean the end of in-person campaign staff. Everything will just be endless automated texts and mailers.

[GrantDawg]

And believe or not, the judge ruled in favor of Elon.

[RainMaker]

I mean rich people don't have to follow the laws but if it's not a lottery, isn't it just a scam since he came out and said it was a lottery? Seems like you can't have it both ways.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I keep hearing the tell-tale on this election will be the late breakers are going Harris by an 8 point margin. Some will say it was the MSG rally, some will say it was the people holding out because of Gaza realizing Trump would be worse not just for Gaza but for them personally. I think that it is mostly that people were holding out because they are mad about inflation, but in the end they just can't stand Trump.

I don't usually buy that some last week shift causes someone to lose an election. But you may be right on it this election.

There were some absurdly long lines at our local polling place today and you never see that here. We don't even have a competitive race to vote in. I've had 2 people who weren't planning to vote say they were just because they can't stand Elon.

It just makes me wonder if there were a bunch of people who were planning to sit this out because they dislike both candidates who decided to vote because the Trump campaign has been throwing the most unlikable people out there every day for the past week. Almost just voting out of spite.

[Ksyrup]

It also helps to explain the Selzer and Times/Sienna last polls' movement toward Harris. They might be capturing, in a couple of the last polls, that late-breaking movement. Unless those polls are completely out of whack, that's as good an explanation as any.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I mean rich people don't have to follow the laws but if it's not a lottery, isn't it just a scam since he came out and said it was a lottery? Seems like you can't have it both ways.

I still don't see how tying to registering to vote and being a partisan PAC doesn't doesn't make it illegal under election laws. To me, it's not random and we're choosing people to work for us for a $1 million salary is worse than random.

[Lathum]

People been saying a while it is the young people who will bring it home for the dems but Iowa shows it actually may be older women who remember the fight for Roe and don't want their kids and grandkids going back 50 years.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Is the Republican Party today that much different than it was? Or is it just the filter is off and they don't care as much about optics? People like Bush, Cheney, McCain and Romney are just as bad, if not worse than Trump, but are considered "the good ones" today.

Today's GOP is fundamentally the same one birthed by Newt & his "Contract with America" cronies in 1994. The only thing that's changed over the past 30 years is a) the filter's been stripped away with the help of more media outlets including social media and b) national candidates who were willing and able to present a less populist image (the "good ones" above), have aged out or been driven away.

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

It also helps to explain the Selzer and Times/Sienna last polls' movement toward Harris. They might be capturing, in a couple of the last polls, that late-breaking movement. Unless those polls are completely out of whack, that's as good an explanation as any.

The other explanation I've heard is that most polls are "herding" in order to give themselves plausible denial for whatever result happens and the outliers like Selzer & Times/Sienna aren't.

Well, we'll find out soon. Maybe next week when they finally finish counting in Wisconsin.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Well, we'll find out soon. Maybe next week when they finally finish counting in Wisconsin.

Unless Trump finds a 5th circuit judge to put a halt to counting at 11:59 Tuesday night.

[GrantDawg]

The good news in Georgia is that they now they will be allowed to recount the mail in ballots and should have the numbers to report at 8pm. I think we might have a good idea on Georgia early.

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[Edward64]

Watching Fox5 from PA. Anchor talking with her Fox counterparts in the battleground states. They are doing a good job, no political opinions but more about what they’re seeing on the ground, early voting etc.

No rah rah BS. No one said Trump was running away with it, all cautiously balanced.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Today's GOP is fundamentally the same one birthed by Newt & his "Contract with America" cronies in 1994. The only thing that's changed over the past 30 years is a) the filter's been stripped away with the help of more media outlets including social media and b) national candidates who were willing and able to present a less populist image (the "good ones" above), have aged out or been driven away.

That's also why I think he's won no matter how the elections pan out. He controls both parties now. Republicans are the same party but without the filter. And that might seem minor but a lot of Republicans hated that filter. That left a void which Democrats have slid into by shifting far to the right on most issues (pro-war, anti-immigration, economic nationalism, etc).

There are differences on some social issues, but it's kind of become a uniparty, which is what the donors have always wanted. One that has the filter and one that doesn't. Donors win either way. It'll be a fascinating time in America to look back on for political scientists I'm sure.

[JPhillips]

Trump's former field director for Western PA:

“Why can’t we make New York, for example, white again? Why can’t we clear out and reclaim Miami?” Barbarossa asked while guest hosting a different white nationalist podcast in June. “I’m not saying we need to be 100 percent homogeneous. I’m not saying we need to be North Korea or Japan or anything like that. A return to 80 percent, 90 percent white would probably be, probably the best we could hope for, to some degree.”

[GrantDawg]

Joe Rogan just formally endorsed Trump and mostly credited Elon Musk for convincing him. Thus proving douche nozzles come in packs.

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[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

People been saying a while it is the young people who will bring it home for the dems but Iowa shows it actually may be older women who remember the fight for Roe and don't want their kids and grandkids going back 50 years.

I have called my mom a single issue, anti-abortion voter, before. She voted for trump in 16, but voted against him in both 20 and 24. Her reasoning is that she simply can't stand him, and can't see how her super evangelical friends can stand by and support him after everything.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I have called my mom a single issue, anti-abortion voter, before. She voted for trump in 16, but voted against him in both 20 and 24. Her reasoning is that she simply can't stand him, and can't see how her super evangelical friends can stand by and support him after everything.

My mom is a very low information voter. She doesn't know much about Trump other than what her facebook feed shows her. She continues to support him and posts the "I'm voting for the felon" shit and other stuff she sees.

She once asked me what I thought of Trump and I told her. That's the only time she's ever mentioned him to me. WV is as Trumpy as it gets so she's surrounded in a bubble of people that vote against their own interests. The GOP has been running the state for nearly 30 years and over those 30 years it's progressively gone downhill in every measurable way but they're all in for Trump and blame dems for all of their problems.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The GOP has been running the state for nearly 30 years and over those 30 years it's progressively gone downhill in every measurable way but they're all in for Trump and blame dems for all of their problems.

Are WVians generally self-aware? Like, are they cognizant of how a lot residents of other states view the state?

(I assume they all regard us as communists, fwiw)

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I have called my mom a single issue, anti-abortion voter, before. She voted for trump in 16, but voted against him in both 20 and 24. Her reasoning is that she simply can't stand him, and can't see how her super evangelical friends can stand by and support him after everything.

Wish my super evangelical parents were like your mom.

[GrantDawg]

David Plouffe just said on CNN that according to their data, Harris could win all 7 battleground states. From his mouth to God's ear.

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[Atocep]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Are WVians generally self-aware? Like, are they cognizant of how a lot residents of other states view the state?

(I assume they all regard us as communists, fwiw)

Absolutely and it's something they're very self conscious of yet at every opportunity they make sure to reinforce stereotypes.

It's always going to be home for me but at this stage of my life it's going to be home from a great distance. The state legislature spent a ton of time and resources debating the right for people to buy raw milk. They're also focused on trans rights (or taking them away) because one middle school girl is trans and competes in track.

[Ksyrup]

I don't know how connected it is to all of the culture war stuff, but I was at a conference a few weeks ago and there was one panel with 2 people from WV on it. One a former defense attorney-turned-lobbyist, and the other a former state legislator. The talked about how badly the WV Supreme Court in the 90s killed business interests with a bunch of pro-plaintiff rulings and how that allowed business interests (read: the GOP) to get citizens to help reshape the court and the legislature and open WV up for business again. And the final axe was a series of major scandals that took down several SC judges within the past decade.

[Swaggs]

West Virginia is the only state that has lost population over the past 30-40 years and has had between 1.7M and 2.0M people since 1940: List of U.S. states and territories by historical population - Wikipedia

It's kind of wild to look at like 1940 or 50 and see the list of states that had a lower population than WV during WW2 (Maryland, Florida, Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Connecticut, etc.). We have had literally negative growth while some of these states have tripled, quadrupled, or more in population.

The state is just so homogenous (white, Western European) and there has never been any kind of economic boom or event that has ever attracted a diversified population, so it is really socially conservative and people don't like or trust the federal government, despite how dependent on welfare a lot of the population is (high number of disabled folks, high level of medicaid/medicare, lots of foster families, etc.).