OOTP Blitz 25: Solo RTS meets Moneyball

[Young Drachma]

Emergency Pod Energy: Making Sense of the Cardinals and Stags at the Break

Are we sure the Cardinals and Stags are good? Like, actually good? We're doing that thing again where we're trying to convince ourselves that two teams with obvious fatal flaws can somehow figure it out in the second half. Let's break this down, Bill Simmons style.

The "Oh No, We Might Have Made a Huge Mistake" Cardinals

Here's my favorite stat: The Cardinals are 23-20 at home, 21-19 on the road. They're basically the same team everywhere! That's either impressive consistency or depressing mediocrity, depending on how many prospects you traded away for this performance. (Spoiler: They traded all of them.)

The thing nobody wants to talk about? Their run differential is actually pretty good! They're outscoring opponents by a decent margin, ranking top-3 in the NL in both ERA (3.53) and batting average (.260). This feels like one of those teams that should be better than their record, but then you look up and realize they're 14 games behind Cincinnati and you're like "wait, what?"

The Mark Wleh thing is real (2.78 ERA, 149 K in 132.2 IP). The Leuri Ramírez thing is definitely real (.336/.384/.607 with 48 extra-base hits!). But we're officially at the "Are we sure Urban Henry isn't washed?" stage of the season (4.03 ERA at age 39), and that's concerning.

The "We Had One Year to Get This Right" Stags

This might be my favorite subplot of the 2063 season. The Trust finally lets them spend money, and their rotation immediately posts a 5.81 ERA. That's not just bad - that's historically bad. It's like they ordered a rotation from Wish.com.

But here's the thing nobody's talking about: Their offense is actually incredible! They're slashing .277/.354/.457 as a team. Paul Correa is having that classic "guy who breaks out the year before his team has to trade him" season (.317/.376/.592). Even their catcher, Otis Ramírez, is raking (.299/.371/.460).

The "What Would You Do?" Game

If I'm running the Cardinals, I'm making one more push. You've already traded away your future - might as well go down swinging. They need another starter (Henry's peripherals are scary) and maybe a catcher who can hit above .207 (sorry, Chris Carter).

The Stags? This is brutal, but they have to start taking calls. The Trust's mandate means this team is getting torn down regardless - might as well maximize the return. Correa, Ramírez, and Stan Wallace could bring back actual prospects. Sometimes you have to know when to fold 'em.

The Weird "What If?" Scenarios

What if the Cardinals had just... not traded away baseball's #8 prospect? What if the Stags had spent their one year of real money on, I don't know, pitchers who can actually pitch? These are the questions that keep fans up at night.

The verdict

We're watching two teams who went all-in with very different definitions of "all." The Cardinals mortgaged the future for a wild card race. The Stags got one year to dream and turned it into a nightmare. The real winners? Cincinnati and Sacramento, who are probably wondering how they became the AL West/NL Central powerhouses while nobody was looking.

Are we sure this isn't the darkest timeline?

[Young Drachma]

Baseball Doesn't Care About Your Cinderella Story

This was supposed to be the Indianapolis Arrows' funeral march. Their lame-duck season before relocating to New Jersey, where some tech bro consortium led by Ethereum millionaire Devon "Web3" Watson paid $2.1 billion to move them to a yet-to-be-built stadium in Newark. Instead, they're leading the AL Central with the third-lowest payroll in baseball ($38.1M), because the sport occasionally likes to punch you in the gut while grinning.

The worst part isn't that they're good. The worst part is that Indianapolis has collectively shrugged. The Arrows are drawing fewer fans than the damn Phillies, who are actively trying to lose games. Just over a million people have bothered to show up at midseason to watch a first-place team, because why get attached to something that's already got one foot out the door?

It's 2003 Montreal Expos all over again, except MLB isn't actively sabotaging this team - reality is doing that job just fine. The new ownership group has made it clear there will be no additional spending. The deadline will come and go without reinforcements. The cruel mathematics of baseball say this team should regress, and management seems perfectly content to let that happen.

This is what happens when the sport treats its teams like NFTs to be flipped rather than civic institutions to be nurtured. The Arrows are winning despite a payroll that wouldn't cover Aaron Judge's breakfast tab. Their starting rotation, led by Avery Prescott (2.70 ERA) and Estefan Cuello (3.26 ERA), is putting up numbers that would make Sandy Koufax blush. Raymond Nadeau (.297/.373/.441) is having the kind of season that usually leads to a statue outside the ballpark. Instead, it'll probably lead to a trade to a "real" contender.

The fans aren't stupid. They know this ends with moving trucks and heartbreak. Better to keep your distance now than watch your team win just enough games to make leaving hurt more. The incoming owners talk about "market inefficiencies" and "optimization strategies" while the current team is actually winning baseball games despite having a payroll that makes the Pirates look like the Yankees.

Baseball is the only sport where success can feel like a curse. The Arrows are proving they can win with nothing, which means the new owners will probably give them exactly that when they reach Newark. The few thousand diehards still showing up to games are watching their team win while dying, like a star burning brightest just before it collapses.

Somewhere, Omar Minaya is watching this and nodding knowingly. At least MLB had the decency to kill the Expos' dreams officially. Indianapolis just has to watch their team succeed while knowing every win brings them closer to goodbye.

The Arrows open a three-game set with Detroit tomorrow. Tickets are available. Lots of them.