The Stock Market thread

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I did my part. I choked down the collard greens and black eyed peas.

You see? After only 2 days of your (and my) whining we are up big babeeee!

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

You see? After only 2 days of your (and my) whining we are up big babeeee!

Yup, it's all due to us.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Yup, it's all due to us.

You sure you ate it all?

Stock markets been sucking big time since late Dec.

December jobs reports has Wall Street starting to talk about rate hikes in 2025

A hot December jobs report has many strategists confident the Federal Reserve will hold off on further interest rate cuts for now.

And some on Wall Street think this report may have even cracked the door open for the Fed to consider rate hikes in 2025.

"Our base case has the Fed on an extended hold," Bank of America Securities US economist Aditya Bhave wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "But we think the risks for the next move are skewed toward a hike."

[RainMaker]

Has anyone tried one of the ETFs based on the stock trades of members of Congress? Seemed kind of silly at first but they doubled the return of the S&P last year.

marketwatch.com

Not sure I'd trust it or anything but as a small part of your portfolio, why not?

Also if anyone is in a state with income tax, I highly recommend this fund. It drops as interest rates drop but tough to beat over 4% and you don't have to pay state income tax on it.

https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mu...mary/31617H300

[flere-imsaho]

Honestly, I'm pretty tempted by those ETFs based on the stock trades of members of Congress. It's pretty clear they're getting a combination of inside information and high-priced investment advice, so this is a way to get both of those on the cheap (and legally).

[sovereignstar v2]

I just get Nancy's secrets in bed. Lower expense ratio

[PilotMan]

Damn this low unemployment and high jobs report. It's such a shame that the market has to keep going down in this really, awful, awful, economy.

[Edward64]

FWIW I start my research with Morningstar and compare performance, expenses etc

https://www.morningstar.com/

NANC hasn’t been tested in a down market yet so I’d be cautious in putting a lot of money in it.

[GrantDawg]

No worries. Trump is coming to wreck the economy. High unemployment is on the way!

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Honestly, I'm pretty tempted by those ETFs based on the stock trades of members of Congress. It's pretty clear they're getting a combination of inside information and high-priced investment advice, so this is a way to get both of those on the cheap (and legally).

My concern is you are lagging behind them. So if they dump a bunch of stock and then pass a bill the next day, you might get screwed. But we've got enough data on this that it seems like it's worth throwing some of your portfolio in. I mean 26% in the past year is pretty crazy good even with the high expense ratio.

I'm going to put like 5% of my retirement in it and see what happens.

[sovereignstar v2]

When do their trades get disclosed?

Looks like they have 30-45 days

[RainMaker]

KRUZ is the Republican version of it. It hasn't had the same kind of returns though despite the top traders in Congress being Republicans.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Has anyone tried one of the ETFs based on the stock trades of members of Congress? Seemed kind of silly at first but they doubled the return of the S&P last year.

marketwatch.com

Not sure I'd trust it or anything but as a small part of your portfolio, why not?

Also if anyone is in a state with income tax, I highly recommend this fund. It drops as interest rates drop but tough to beat over 4% and you don't have to pay state income tax on it.

FDLXX - Fidelity ® Treasury Only Money Market Fund | Fidelity Investments

First thing I saw on the second one was that the fund manager is changing Q1 2025, so there’s an element on risk/unknown with new management

[RainMaker]

It should just be t-bills so I don't think there is much management. You're not going to lose money unless the country collapses and the rate should basically just mimic the official rate minus a small management fee.

You could buy direct though. I thought of doing that but it wasn't really worth the effort unless you had a ton of money to invest.

Log In — TreasuryDirect

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

My concern is you are lagging behind them.

Yeah, it feels like moving at the same time as them would be pretty important. Timing is everything and all that.

[Edward64]

Very nice day.

Eggs are still sky high per Dec CPI (chart in link) but that's explainable with the Bird Flu. Fourth highest is "Dried beans, peas + lentils"; I don't get it but it is what it is. Also, assume "home insurance" will rear its ugly head again with SoCal mess.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/15/here...one-chart.html

While the upward move may seem disheartening, evidence suggests inflation should resume its downward drift in 2025, economists said.

But they caution that President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration could stall or reverse that progress if it pursues policies such as tariffs and tax cuts, which, depending on their scope, may be inflationary.

“The key wildcard here is policy,” Joe Seydl, a senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, said of inflation’s trajectory.

I'm ready for the nitty-gritty details of Trump's policies. Illegal immigration, tariffs, and tax policies are (I think) the top 3 that will immediately impact the markets, and his plans for those 3 should be out in the next 1-3 months.

[flere-imsaho]

I think you mean "concepts of policies".

[Edward64]

First stock market day of Trump 2 and it didn't disappoint.

Nasdaq +.64 and S&P +.88 and Dow +1.24%. It's nice to see the "older" Dow companies doing well, they were getting left behind in the dust by Nasdaq and S&P during the Biden years.

Some space & AI (and quantum) stocks did really well because of Trump announcing AI $500B partnership of OpenAI, Oracle & Softbank; and re-confirming his interest in man on Mars. My speculative (and unfortunately, small) holding in RocketLab (RKLB) up 30%+ today. It's a record, never had one of my stocks go up/down by 30%+ before.

[Edward64]

Nvidia futures down -10%, Nasdaq -4%+

No, no one cares about Colombian coffee, more like DeepSeek. Markets are unsettled on the AI implications & ramifications.

Probably a bumpy ride until Silicon Valley & Markets get to "Acceptance" stage.

Edit: Yowser, Nasdaq futures now down -5% in about 30 min. Folks are waking up

[NobodyHere]

Good bye early retirement. Thanks Trump.

[GrantDawg]

Watching the Dow Jones with its classic Blue Chip stocks have a good day while all the heavy Tech based indexes tumble is very interesting.

[Edward64]

Yeah, maybe this is the year where Dow leads and S&P + Nasdaq lags behind. But sure hope not, my ETFs are in the latter.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Yeah, maybe this is the year where Dow leads and S&P + Nasdaq lags behind. But sure hope not, my ETFs are in the latter.

Hate to be the pessimist, but I don't think so. I don't think the Blue Chips are going to handle tariff/retaliatory tariffs well. The mass deportations are probably going to hit the food sector pretty hard as well.

[flere-imsaho]

No one's going to fare well in a recession, and a recession is what we're getting, now that we have utter incompetents running the government.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Good bye early retirement.

Don't cancel your plans yet!

S&P and Nasdaq futures up +.40% and +.071%, and Nvidia up +5%. Sure hope it lasts or strengthens. Need to "Hodor" against the darkness ... now.

Remembered the character, forgot his name and had to look him up. Reminded me I need to do a complete rewatch in the next year or two.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Thanks Trump.

Wrong guy.

Right guy ...

Fair chance we'll read more about him over the next several years

Liang Wenfeng, a 40-year-old former hedge fund manager with a degree in artificial intelligence (AI)

That argument about pausing AI development when ChatGPT first came out, talking about coming up with rules, ethical guidelines etc. Yeah ... no (do it concurrently). Full on race, and the US better not fall behind.

[flere-imsaho]

[Edward64]

Things were going so well. Oh well, easy come, easy go.

Another 4 years of the markets reacting fluid, change on the fly, last minute policy decisions.

[Edward64]

Welp, futures are out.

Dow -1.12%
S&P -1.69%
Nasdaq -2.36%

Pretty fugly but could be worse.

I'd think Dow and S&P would be hit worse than Nasdaq. What the frak does Mexico & Canada tariffs have to do with MAGA 7?

[Edward64]

Monday morning futures. Mexico futures -1.6%.

Dow -1.29%
S&P -1.47%
Nasdaq -1.65%

Nice that S&P and Nasdaq recovered some. Probably going to be a bumpy ride for the next several weeks.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Monday morning futures. Mexico futures -1.6%.



Nice that S&P and Nasdaq recovered some. Probably going to be a bumpy ride for the next 4 YEARS.

Fixed

[Edward64]

Unfortunately, true.

But then Trump 1.0 beat Joe's market performance. May be bad for my psyche but good for the portfolio.

[Edward64]

Oh yeah, baby. Give me more volatility ...

Donald Trump says the US will "definitely" impose trade tariffs on the EU, after announcing them on Canada, Mexico and China

Asked by the BBC if the EU was next, President Trump says "it will definitely happen" - but suggests a deal "can be worked out" with the UK

... but I have no idea what Trump wants from the EU

[Ksyrup]

So now we're just throwing out the pretext of illegal drugs coming into our country as the primary motivator for the tariffs?

[Edward64]

That was for Mexico & Canada.

I don't think Trump will use that argument against the EU. Googled a little more, no idea how valid his claims are ...

Trump told the BBC that tariffs on EU goods imported into the US could happen "pretty soon".

"They don't take our cars, they don't take our farm products, they take almost nothing and we take everything from them. Millions of cars, tremendous amounts of food and farm products," he told journalists.

Edit: Per AI

The US-EU trade deficit is the difference between the amount of goods and services the US imports from the EU and the amount it exports to the EU. In 2022, the US had a trade deficit of $131.3 billion with the EU. In 2023, the US had a goods trade deficit of €155.8 billion ($161.6 billion) with the EU.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Edward64

... but I have no idea what Trump wants from the EU

This was retweeted by a number of conservative, generally-Trump-supportive-but-not-full-on-MAGA individuals and organizations, and at this point it really does seem like the best explanation.

He just likes tariffs. He thinks they're good. This particular tariff plan might be disastrous enough to teach a hot-stove lesson on public opinion and prices, it might not. But that's it.

There's no complex economic debate happening on the inside. He just likes tariffs.

— Seth Mandel (@SethAMandel) February 2, 2025

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

So now we're just throwing out the pretext of illegal drugs coming into our country as the primary motivator for the tariffs?

It is a built in excuse for his supports when the economy crashes. The goal post shifting never ends.

[Lathum]

Market getting hammered down almost 700 points just 30 minutes in to trading.

Auto manufacturers getting hit hard, so good job guys, I am sure this won't cost Americans jobs.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

This was retweeted by a number of conservative, generally-Trump-supportive-but-not-full-on-MAGA individuals and organizations, and at this point it really does seem like the best explanation.

He just likes tariffs. He thinks they're good. This particular tariff plan might be disastrous enough to teach a hot-stove lesson on public opinion and prices, it might not. But that's it.

There's no complex economic debate happening on the inside. He just likes tariffs.

— Seth Mandel (@SethAMandel) February 2, 2025

When it comes to Trump I think it is always safe to just assume the simplest explanation. The people who think her is playing 4D chess are as stupid as he is

[albionmoonlight]

As the market gets bigger, it really makes more sense to talk in percentages than absolute numbers.

I know that "Dow drops 500 points!" sounds dramatic, so that's how they will continue to report things.

But that, like, what, 1%?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

As the market gets bigger, it really makes more sense to talk in percentages than absolute numbers.

I know that "Dow drops 500 points!" sounds dramatic, so that's how they will continue to report things.

But that, like, what, 1%?

Agree, always good to keep things in context & perspective.

Nevertheless, real happy to see the markets have calmed down by noon. It turned with the Mexico news.

Dow -.06%
S&P -.54%
Nasdaq -.97%

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Been to China a couple times. Google isn't that big there. Googling says Google made $3B in revenue (2018) out of $340B (2024). Would have hurt more if it was Apple.

I don't like the Chinese government but appreciate them reading my posts. This is the way ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/05/appl...app-store.html

Apple shares fall 3% in premarket after China reportedly considers probe into App Store practices

[SirFozzie]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...es-shein-temu/

(ignore the URL name, the article's been updated to state that the USPS is accepting packages from China again

Trump's changes in a lot of cases are like that old simpsons gif, announce big change, notice that you had unintended consequences, and quickly undo the change. Walk in.. OOOP.. walk out

[Edward64]

Did my first cut of taxes, fun times. It would be great if Feb was a +3% month, it would make me feel better about paying taxes & healthcare.gov.

Healthcare is too frakking expensive. I would really, really like to see someone take on the healthcare industry (e.g. a Trump-like for healthcare, take the chainsaw to it and damn what Congress & Special Interests have to say) ... payers, providers & pharmas, they all share blame.

I'm tired of subsidizing the rest of the world. Why the frak are the same drugs in US more expensive than in Canada/Europe? Rhetorical question, I know the answer.

[Flasch186]

We haven’t had insurance for the entire family for about 7 years. I view that as making an extra $140k over that time.

My son needed a surgery to remove an osteochondroma this fall and the first doctor plus hospital wanted 30k

I switched surgeons within the same group wherein she was able to do the surgery at a surgery center instead of a hospital and got it all done for $8k and was back to running after the knee surgery within weeks.

For many in this country insurance of any sort Is a giant scam legal within the grift that is this oligarchy.

Never been happier to have dual citizenship for me and the family so that some day, if need be, we can gtfo financially.


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[PilotMan]

I mean, that's great as long as you're not in a major accident, or someone isn't diagnosed with a severe illness. You'd burn 140k up in in few surgeries. It's nice that the gamble has been successful, but damn, I could never take that risk with my family. A lifetime of savings, ruined credit, and indefinite future expenses wouldn't be worth it imo.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I mean, that's great as long as you're not in a major accident, or someone isn't diagnosed with a severe illness. You'd burn 140k up in in few surgeries. It's nice that the gamble has been successful, but damn, I could never take that risk with my family. A lifetime of savings, ruined credit, and indefinite future expenses wouldn't be worth it imo.

yeah, I could never live without that safety net. I would see danger around every corner.

[Ksyrup]

Yeah, we've had multiple surgeries/procedures for the 4 of us in recent years that would have bankrupted me, cutting deals or not. There's no way I could go without insurance unless I was single, as I'm by far the healthiest of the 4 of us (and even then, diagnosed with Crohn's, at some point I could find myself on one of those TV ad drugs that, off insurance, costs upwards of $25K per 30-45 day dose).

[Edward64]

I like all the interest in AI, currently around generative AI but the real race is for AGI (artificial general intelligence). OpenAI will have a lot of friends/suitors that will help it fend off Musk, but the overall competitiveness is good.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/10/musk...penai-wsj.html

Elon Musk is leading a group of investors in offering to buy control of OpenAI for $97.4 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

The WSJ cited a statement from Musk provided by Toberoff, saying “It’s time for OpenAI to return to the open-source, safety-focused force for good it once was.”

And a great response ...

In a post on X, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman wrote, “no thank you but we will buy twitter for $9.74 billion if you want.”

Also, markets had a great day which is surprising considering the tariff threats this weekend. I read something that said the markets are just getting used to all his threats, and betting its more for negotiation than reality. I'm not so sure about that ... but here we are.

[bob]

OK, looking for some advice from the peanut gallery here.

Current situation:
Job is stable as far as I can tell.
Only debt is car payments - both around 3.75%.
Emergency fund of 6+ months in HYSA.
Fully fund 401k each year.

Currently spinning off about $2-3k a month in extra cash. Given your thoughts on the economy, should we:

1- Invest in the market in non retirement accounts
2- Prepay car loans
3- Save up more cash
4- Some combo of the above
5- Something else I haven't considered