Iran War 2026

[JPhillips]

Crazy the specificity of details from the situation room coming from today's NYT story. Somebody, or multiple sombodies, is really leaking what is normally only hinted at.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Crazy the specificity of details from the situation room coming from today's NYT story. Somebody, or multiple sombodies, is really leaking what is normally only hinted at.

It is whoever wants JD Vance to be the nominee in 2028. Prepare for more of this as the war continues to be a disaster.

[JPhillips]

Looks like this is going to end with an extension of the deadline, but who knows if the Israelis will honor it.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

I'm afraid I'm turning into a 9/11 truther now. There's no way the pilot covered 100 miles in a day. Maybe he ejected a lot further away from the crash site than they've claimed? The whole Good Friday/Easter Sunday timeframe had my spidey senses twitching.

Where does a 100 miles come from? He traveled about 7 miles. He did what pilots are trained to do, move and travel to a high point.

[Ghost Econ]

With the markets recovering I have to assume people were told nothing would happen

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

With the markets recovering I have to assume people were told nothing would happen

I was going to ask what are the odds of today being TACO Tuesday?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I was going to ask what are the odds of today being TACO Tuesday?

Around 100%

[RainMaker]

The media has mostly given up and you're not going to get any information. I'd recommend Drop Site or others from the region that have actual boots on the ground.

They're treating this 10 point ceasefire plan that Iran sent as something new but it's been out there for weeks.

[Thomkal]

Thank God Iran has two more weeks to exist.

[dubb93]

Is this the same plan where Iran set a 2 million toll on the Strait?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Is this the same plan where Iran set a 2 million toll on the Strait?

Yes, they'll apparently split it with Oman.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Yes, they'll apparently split it with Oman.

Have to wonder if this becomes a permanent thing?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Yes, they'll apparently split it with Oman.

I am seeing a couple of minor tweaks to one that was released earlier. They are no longer demanding all US bases out of the region, and the splitting of the toll with Oman. Still, it is pretty much a complete surrender by the US and Isreal if there is not some nuclear and ballistic missile restrictions.

Edit: Also the earlier list had the toll and reparations. The new one has the toll instead of reparations.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Have to wonder if this becomes a permanent thing?

Probably. It's common throughout the rest of the world and Iran was kind of doing the world a favor by not imposing tolls in the past. But now they've got to rebuild a lot so they are likely done playing nice about it.

The proposal requires Israel to stop the ethnic cleansing in Lebanon so I just don't see how that is agreed to. Heck, this ceasefire will be broken by Israel in a few hours is my guess.

[JPhillips]

Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again
Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire
End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon
Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran
End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies
Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Iran would impose a $2m fee per ship transiting Hormuz
Iran would split these fees with Oman
Iran would establish rules for safe passage through Hormuz
Iran would use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations

Yeah, nothing Iran wasn't already willing to agree to and several points that are big concessions from the US. A major defeat if this ends up being the agreement.

[Danny]

Art of the deal! Who wants to give me two 5 dollar bills for my 20?

[Thomkal]

Boy that Donald Trump is some negotiator-It's almost like Iran was in a position of strength here

[Mota]

All that, plus they probably radicalized a bunch of people there as well.

[Danny]

Trump is basically like my 3 year old son. Sure he might play nicely for 10 minites or so but then hes going throw the remote in the toilet, empty a botte of lotion on the carpet or hit me in the nuts unexpectedly.

[JPhillips]

lol Graham is saying that Congress has to approve any end to the war.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Mota

All that, plus they probably radicalized a bunch of people there as well.

Made the GCC mad as hell too.

[Icy]

So we are basically in the same situation as before the war started but now with Iran and Oman getting one million each per ship that crosses the channel (more than 100 ships per day), and that of course will make it all more expensive for everybody. Amazing deal.

[JPhillips]

These are way worse than the ten points I posted last night.

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Every day, Trump humiliates America, weakens us, alienates us from our friends, and makes the world our children will grow up in exponentially more dangerous.

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— Joshua Reed Eakle �� (lc:2adtngm3y6e6ol6jastnkxzm?ref_src=embed">@joshuaeakle.com) lc:2adtngm3y6e6ol6jastnkxzm/post/3miyd66vptc2l?ref_src=embed">April 8, 2026 at 8:46 AM

Dammit I Guess BSky doesn't embed.

The WSJ list is here: https://bsky.app/profile/joshuaeakle.../3miyd66vptc2l

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

lol Graham is saying that Congress has to approve any end to the war.

What war? When did Congress ever declare war?

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Heck, this ceasefire will be broken by Israel in a few hours is my guess.

Nailed it.

[NobodyHere]

Singapore refuses to negotiate Hormuz passage as 'matter of principle'

So what happens if countries refuse to pay Iran's toll? Is the peace deal over? Is Iran going to attack shipping and likely pissing off the whole world?

[dubb93]

If prior travel stays consistent and the toll remains 2 million per ship the Strait should generate roughly 276 million dollars a day in tolls half of which would go to Iran and the other half presumably split between Oman and some division of The Trump Organization.

[Ghost Econ]

So essentially Trump made a deal to send 1/10 of Obama's pallet of cash to Iran each day and fewer checks on nuclear and weapons development?

Jon must love that.

[JPhillips]

Someone made a 950 mil bet on oil prices falling just before the pause was announced.

Trump always insider trades

[Ksyrup]

Things are going so well that I expect we'll strike Cuba soon.

[RainMaker]

Beirut appears to be getting razed to the ground.

Apocalyptic scenes in Lebanon’s capital right now.

Israel has launched 100 airstrikes on Lebanon in 10 minutes.

Striking South Lebanon, Beirut and the Bekaa Valley simultaneously.

This isn’t a ceasefire.

It’s mass bombardment of civilian areas. pic.twitter.com/ygTf2Pscrn

— sarah (@sahouraxo) April 8, 2026

[NobodyHere]

Was Lebanon even part of the ceasefire?

[RainMaker]

Yes, it was point 10. But Israel was never going to abide by a ceasefire so maybe they just scrapped that part.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Yes, it was point 10. But Israel was never going to abide by a ceasefire so maybe they just scrapped that part.

I haven't seen anything that says Israel agreed to that point.

ETA: It just seems there's a lot different articles out there that "disagree" on what exactly the two sides agreed to in the ceasefire. I'm not even sure Trump and Iran saw the same document before agreeing to the ceasefire. They both just wanted to declare victory without diving into the details.

[RainMaker]

I guess you can argue that Israel isn't breaking it on a technicality. It mentions Hezbollah in Lebanon and they are mostly targeting civilians in Central Beirut where Hezbollah has nearly no presence.

[RainMaker]

BREAKING: The passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has been stopped, per Iran's Fars News Agency.

Iran says it will withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues attacks on Lebanon and it is preparing potential responses.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 8, 2026

[Danny]

I don't know maybe Trump could have navigated this during his first term, but they guy is cooked

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Danny

I don't know maybe Trump could have navigated this during his first term, but they guy is cooked

Milley and some of the others around him would have at least been willing to tell him the truth. So, if nothing else, he would have been getting better advice and tactical planning at the top. Whether or not he would have listened is up for debate but no Hegseth and his biblical end times leaders would be a massive upgrade.

Hegseth is lying to save his ass right now and others are just telling him how amazing he is.

[GrantDawg]

Meanwhile Trump is meeting today with the Nato Secretary to discuss pulling out of NATO. So much winning.....for Putin.

[RainMaker]

I kind of don't mind us ditching NATO. The purpose of it is dated. He's leaving for completely unrelated reasons but I don't think it's a bad thing.

[flere-imsaho]

What do we gain by leaving NATO?

[flere-imsaho]

Anyway, those Epstein Files, eh?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

What do we gain by leaving NATO?

Nothing. And at least with Trump, we'll be more "adventurous" on our own than we will be with allies.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

What do we gain by leaving NATO?

Well the money would be the first thing. Not our annual contribution but all the wars we participate and fund in relation to it. It's been a destructive force against the global south and resulted in immense lose of innocent lives.

Just seems like a lot of bad to priop up a few billionaires.

Plus all the terrorism.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gladio

[JPhillips]

Trump's requesting a 50% increase in the defense budget. It's naive to think that we'll be less interventionist on our own.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Trump's requesting a 50% increase in the defense budget. It's naive to think that we'll be less interventionist on our own.

More wars without all that pesky allies and diplomacy stuff.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Trump's requesting a 50% increase in the defense budget. It's naive to think that we'll be less interventionist on our own.

We would be able to provide Medicare for everyone 35 and over with that budget increase.

Looking through the budget stuff, it mostly seems like building a bunch of outdated military stuff. Likely to make a few rich donors even wealthier. 41 war ships at a time when we can't even get our war ships near even Yemen is a waste.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

More wars without all that pesky allies and diplomacy stuff.

That's what I'd expect. I think you can make a pretty good argument that the need to at least pay lip service to allies has stopped us from doing what Trump is now doing.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Well the money would be the first thing. Not our annual contribution but all the wars we participate and fund in relation to it.

I'm trying to think of an instance where NATO dragged the U.S. into a conflict vs. the other way around.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I'm trying to think of an instance where NATO dragged the U.S. into a conflict vs. the other way around.

The closest thing would probably be the Balkans, which was an all around clusterfuck that NATO sat out until their vacation homes in Croatia were threatened. Dragging their feet before intervening probably made it worse for everyone and forced us into it.