2026 Midterms Thread

[Lathum]

I thought it may be a good idea to start a separate thread for the midterms so we don't clutter up the Trump thread.

Texas primary is today and it is fascinating. The Talarico stuff feels like Beto 2.0 but I think he could be Paxton in a general.

That being said I expect the dems to shoot themselves in the foot and elect Crocket, who has zero chance in a Texas general election.

The GOP side is more interesting and because of Hunt will go to a run off which would be great if the dems do get Talarico across the line. It means more money spend to earn the nomination and more dirt dug up on each other while the dem candidate can focus on the general.

The Latino vote will be interesting.

[Lathum]

Whoa- Polymarket has both Talarico and Paxton sitting at 84% likely to win their primary.

That would be best case for the Dems which makes me want to buy Crocket at 17%

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Whoa- Polymarket has both Talarico and Paxton sitting at 84% likely to win their primary.

That would be best case for the Dems which makes me want to buy Crocket at 17%

Talarico up to 89% and Paxon down to 81% according to Polymarket.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Racer

Talarico up to 89% and Paxon down to 81% according to Polymarket.

90% now for Talarico

[RainMaker]

Crockett really shot herself in the foot with the Hispanic comments but I'm really surprised at those odds. She does have a small but almost cult-like following down there.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I thought it may be a good idea to start a separate thread for the midterms so we don't clutter up the Trump thread.

Texas primary is today and it is fascinating. The Talarico stuff feels like Beto 2.0 but I think he could be Paxton in a general.

That being said I expect the dems to shoot themselves in the foot and elect Crocket, who has zero chance in a Texas general election.

The GOP side is more interesting and because of Hunt will go to a run off which would be great if the dems do get Talarico across the line. It means more money spend to earn the nomination and more dirt dug up on each other while the dem candidate can focus on the general.

The Latino vote will be interesting.

I think there's way more substance to Talarico compared to Beto. He's incredibly knowledgeable on the issues and, as a white christian, is the type of politician that could theoretically win a statewide in Texas. He also hasn't made statements that are disqualifying for most in Texas like Beto did.

Paxton is a weak candidate with a poor approval rating. Cornyn is even worse though. There's almost too much dirt on Paxton for a single race, but it probably doesn't matter in the end.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I think there's way more substance to Talarico compared to Beto. He's incredibly knowledgeable on the issues and, as a white christian, is the type of politician that could theoretically win a statewide in Texas. He also hasn't made statements that are disqualifying for most in Texas like Beto did.

Paxton is a weak candidate with a poor approval rating. Cornyn is even worse though. There's almost too much dirt on Paxton for a single race, but it probably doesn't matter in the end.

I agree Talarico seems to be a stronger candidate. I meant more for the POV of Dems getting all hot and bothered that this is their year! Beto did screw himself with his comment on taking peoples guns.

I think the only way Dems win in Texas is if it boils down to turn out. If Paxton wins the nomination I can see there being enough people just staying home because voting Paxton is just too gross.

Still, I'll believe it when I see it and I think the likely out come is the GOP holds Texas and in the process causes the DNC to spend a shit ton of money that could have gone elsewhere.

[JPhillips]

Joke's on you. The DNC doesn't have any money!

I'm more comfortable with people donating to Talarico than another stupid attempt to win in KY. People need to stop funding grifting candidates and staff.

[Lathum]

Early results coming in.

[Lathum]

Talarico leading Denton county has to be a monster blow for Crocket. It is the next county over from Dallas.

Polymarket seems to agree with Talarico at 97% now

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Talarico leading Denton county has to be a monster blow for Crocket. It is the next county over from Dallas.

Polymarket seems to agree with Talarico at 97% now

The big thing so far is dem turnout is significantly higher than GOP so far.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The big thing so far is dem turnout is significantly higher than GOP so far.

yeah. That has to make the GOP very nervous.

It is like I said up thread. I think there is a significant number of republicans who just can't bring themselves to vote Paxton n a general. Combine that with dem turnout and we could see a major shift.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Talarico leading Denton county has to be a monster blow for Crocket. It is the next county over from Dallas.

Polymarket seems to agree with Talarico at 97% now

That's my county so it's partially my fault. Denton county is a weird mix of college town, suburban sprawl, and rural area. It's a red county governed by corrupt frauds.

[Lathum]

Trump coming out and saying whomever he endorses in the Texas run off the other should drop out immediately. Will be an interesting litmus test to trumps power.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Trump coming out and saying whomever he endorses in the Texas run off the other should drop out immediately. Will be an interesting litmus test to trumps power.

And the rumor is that it will be Cornyn, which makes sense. A sitting Senator is more valuable than a state AG. Cornyn could go rouge if he no longer needed MAGA votes for reelection.

[Lathum]

Even Trump and his people know Paxton is toxic AF.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

And the rumor is that it will be Cornyn, which makes sense. A sitting Senator is more valuable than a state AG. Cornyn could go rouge if he no longer needed MAGA votes for reelection.

There's no way Paxton will drop out... unless he's given a bag with a dollar sign on it. Not chump change like Homan's $50K though.

I do have to say that I've been regretting my vote for Talarico since I did it in early voting. I don't ever remember being so conflicted over a choice on voting day. I think Crockett would have been more likely to actually vote as a Democrat in the Senate. I see Talarico taking a sharp rightward turn in the next week or so.

[miami_fan]

I am pretty confident James Fishback has no shot at winning the Republican nomination to be Florida's next governor. But he is making a few waves in his direct (and mostly racist) attacks on Byron Donalds. At least he is the only candidate that I have seen media coverage of. Anyways, this proposal right here is a wild one given the most recent Donalds rumors.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ents=1&wcseo=1

James Fishback said this week he would support changing the laws so that anyone who cheats would lose full custody and “full claims to any assets in that marriage.”

[flere-imsaho]

$20 says he's got some skeletons of his own.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

$20 says he's got some skeletons of his own.

Absolutely does

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

$20 says he's got some skeletons of his own.

Well yeah he probably has some "files" out there about his skeletons, but he would say that it is something akin to a Democratic hoax.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives...after-breakup/

[Ksyrup]

The Kentucky GOP Senate ads are genuinely embarrassing. The wife and I have so far managed not to break each others' fingers/wrists reaching for the remote mute button - it's like us playing Family Feud slamming the buzzer.

Watch this shit:



He's up against Nate Morris, a businessman whose own ads shove Charlie Kirk's endorsement down your throat and Daniel Cameron, the former AG who lost the governor race to Beshear and must not have any money because he hasn't run a damn ad yet (I assume he's waiting for the last 30-45 days to flood the airwaves?).

Just God-awful stuff. And Barr was a Romney-type GOPer 15 years ago. A former partner of mine in a Lexington law firm went to HS with him and talked him up. Once Trump took hold of the party, he sold out like the rest of them.

[Thomkal]

wow

[Thomkal]

Nice to see the DNC being pro-active for the midterms and apply legal pressure:


DNC sues to find out if Donald Trump will deploy federal officers to election sites

[JPhillips]

A Dem leads after the first round in MTG's old seat. The combined GOP vote was over 57%, though, so it will be a real long shot for him to win the runoff.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

A Dem leads after the first round in MTG's old seat. The combined GOP vote was over 57%, though, so it will be a real long shot for him to win the runoff.

That's very red district that I believe Trump won by more than 30 points. Another bad sign for the GOP.

[albionmoonlight]

Longtime NC Senate leader Phil Berger has been one of the most effective MAGA politicians out there. NC is a light pink state, but through his efforts and aggressive style, he's managed to get MAGA loyalists into positions of power throughout the state. He is, I say without hyperbole, the most powerful politician in the state--even more than the governor.

But, like most longtime politicians, he's gotten a bit used to lining his own pockets. And the few compromises he's had to make as majority leader started the dreaded RINO whispers. So he got primaried from his right by an ultra-MAGA sheriff. Who now leads him by, like, 27 votes or something.

This election is far from over. Berger's got hand-picked loyalists on the Board of Elections, and his son sits on the NC Supreme Court.

But if he does fall, it will be a pretty big upset.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

That's very red district that I believe Trump won by more than 30 points. Another bad sign for the GOP.

They know if Trump isn't on the ballot turnout craters. It's why they are really pushing the SAVE act. They know they are going to get killed and the only counter is full on voter suppression. When that fails they will just put armed and masked ICE agents at polling stations in heavily latino areas.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

They know if Trump isn't on the ballot turnout craters. It's why they are really pushing the SAVE act. They know they are going to get killed and the only counter is full on voter suppression. When that fails they will just put armed and masked ICE agents at polling stations in heavily latino areas.

I dont see SAVE passing but I'm also not certain it hurts dems more than the GOP. I think it's a huge miscalculation by Trump because he has people around him convinced that tons of people are illegally voting.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I dont see SAVE passing but I'm also not certain it hurts dems more than the GOP. I think it's a huge miscalculation by Trump because he has people around him convinced that tons of people are illegally voting.

Yeah. I heard an expert on it the other day that said overwhelmingly more dems have passports than republicans and it would really hurt a lot of the rural voters. They also said these areas don't have the infrastructure to handle the volume of changes that would have to be made.

I suspect the supporters of this don't care as much about the bill and they just want all the chaos that it would cause going into November.

[JPhillips]

At this point, there might be 150 or so working days between the effective start and the registration deadline. There are around 161 million currently registered adults, so this would require more than a million citizenship verifications every day.

And there's no list of citizens. Each one has to have the primary document verified as accurate. The whole plan is to cause as much chaos as possible and declare the election null and void.

[RainMaker]

Some big primaries in Illinois today. Lots of money from outside the country involved. Should be interesting to see how it pans out. I'm not in a district with a competitive House primary but the Senate primary should be incredibly close.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Some big primaries in Illinois today. Lots of money from outside the country involved. Should be interesting to see how it pans out. I'm not in a district with a competitive House primary but the Senate primary should be incredibly close.

I donated to Kat Abughazaleh’s campaign. It’ll be interesting to see if she can pull the upset over Daniel Biss or not. I’ve never donated to someone I can’t vote for before but I’d like to see more people with similar ideology to Bernie Sanders and AOC in congress.

[GrantDawg]

I'm definitely rooting for her. There is desperate need for new blood, and that is a perfect district for her to shine in.

[RainMaker]

She was a longshot a couple months ago but has really tightened the race. It came out that AIPAC was supporting Biss and other candidates in the district through made up PACs. They were paying influencers $1500 to trash her too. Was a big scandal here and I think has helped her make this competitive.

Senate will be fascinating. I voted Stratton because she called to abolish ICE and Raja was voting to honor them last year. There are better candidates but she's the only one that has a chance to beat Raja who is just terrible all around.

[RainMaker]

I would also say that the Kat person is someone the party SHOULD support if she loses by giving her some kind of position within the party. She did a terrific job rallying young voters and actually drawing attention to ICE abuses when others were cowering (even forced Biss to speak out).

It'll never happen because of her support for Palestine but she'd be one of those people that the party should push for leadership positions and find races she can compete in. Even if that's a State House race or something.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I would also say that the Kat person is someone the party SHOULD support if she loses by giving her some kind of position within the party. She did a terrific job rallying young voters and actually drawing attention to ICE abuses when others were cowering (even forced Biss to speak out).

It'll never happen because of her support for Palestine but she'd be one of those people that the party should push for leadership positions and find races she can compete in. Even if that's a State House race or something.

I used to watch her Tik Tok's on the stupid things MAGA did this week, and she is very media savvy.

[Passacaglia]

Just got back. Kina Collins and Robin Kelly here.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I'm not in a district with a competitive House primary but the Senate primary should be incredibly close.

I'm in the 9th and I can't wait for it to be over.

With 65% of votes counted Biss is leading 19.9k over Fine with 14.6K over Kat A with 13.5K. Drops off considerably after that.

With 32% of votes counted Stratton is leading Krishnamoorthi 180K to 156K.

Hynes is currently leading Kaegi for Assessor, which will be a travesty if it holds.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I would also say that the Kat person is someone the party SHOULD support if she loses by giving her some kind of position within the party.

If she wants it. A lot of her actions suggested she wasn't interested in much beyond winning this primary. Sleeping through (and thus missing) one candidate forum and outright skipping a few others didn't leave a good impression.

She gives the impression she wants to be AOC, and I'd love more AOCs, but her actions don't convince me, yet, that she's another AOC.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Was a big scandal here and I think has helped her make this competitive.

A big scandal for the overly online, maybe. But the thing Kat misunderstood was the value of local & retail politics. Pounding the pavement. Understanding local issues. And that's why lots of locals are voting for Biss & Fine.

I voted Stratton because she called to abolish ICE and Raja was voting to honor them last year. There are better candidates but she's the only one that has a chance to beat Raja who is just terrible all around.

I like Stratton a lot, actually. Clear on the issues and similar in style to Pritzker, and I really like JB a lot, too. Raja in the Senate would be just another milquetoast centrist Democrats, and we have way too many of those already.

[RainMaker]

VIDEO: Biss in victory speech:

“So enough about AIPAC. May tonight be the last night I utter their name.

“This victory belongs to J Street.” https://t.co/oJESCDBfJk pic.twitter.com/nyHLLRMaSA

— Jacob N. Kornbluh (@jacobkornbluh) March 18, 2026

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

A big scandal for the overly online, maybe. But the thing Kat misunderstood was the value of local & retail politics. Pounding the pavement. Understanding local issues. And that's why lots of locals are voting for Biss & Fine.

Her whole thing was pounding the pavement and doing local stuff. Like I think she setup a food bank and other things.

She was always a longshot but still pretty impressive for a 26-year old to beat a popular State Senator and come close to knocking off Biss who is a big figure in the state. They both received tons of money from Israeli-backed donors and she had to have been outspent like 10 to 1 in the end when you throw in all the fake PACs that were created to defeat her.

[miami_fan]

Fishback is back!

James Fishback filleted on X after saying he won't pay his lawyer

“He lost my case,” the embattled Republican who homesteads in Washington, D.C., said. “Why on earth would I pay him for losing?

Fishback told Florida Politics on Friday that he owed his mother “$20 for Chipotle last night, and that’s the only person I’m going to be paying back.”

He actually made a video in which he stated that it should not be controversial to say that if you hire a lawyer to win you a case and he does not, then you don't pay him in the same way that if you go to a restaurant and they give you beef when you asked for shrimp, you don't pay them. He then stated his position that if folks don't deliver on their govt. contracts, they won't get paid.


This man is currently polling at 4% overall but is at 32% with likely Republican primary voters aged 18-32.

[RainMaker]

DNC still refusing to release the 2024 autopsy report.

[Ghost Econ]

Here, I can do it in 2 sentences:

We underestimated how a large swath of America was cool voting for populist fascism.

We underestimated how a large swath of our extreme base was cool with populist fascism if it meant not voting for people who could give them some of what they want, but not everything, because they have the maturity of toddlers and would prefer to just let people they allege to support suffer.

Sorry, that second sentence was a run on.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

DNC still refusing to release the 2024 autopsy report.

What would they have to gain from releasing it?

If they did learn anything from it, I would have to assume that they would work their results into their election strategy.

So if that is true, by releasing the autopsy they could give the GOP insight into their next elections strategy.

Then again asking Democrats to learn from their failures is a bit much.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

Here, I can do it in 2 sentences:

We underestimated how a large swath of America was cool voting for populist fascism.

We underestimated how a large swath of our extreme base was cool with populist fascism if it meant not voting for people who could give them some of what they want, but not everything, because they have the maturity of toddlers and would prefer to just let people they allege to support suffer.

Sorry, that second sentence was a run on.

Another way of stating that second sentence is stating that Biden/Harris/centrists valued Israel's genocide over defeating a fascist.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

What would they have to gain from releasing it?

If they did learn anything from it, I would have to assume that they would work their results into their election strategy.

So if that is true, by releasing the autopsy they could give the GOP insight into their next elections strategy.

Then again asking Democrats to learn from their failures is a bit much.

They are the ones going around saying "we need to learn from our mistakes" but then keeping those mistakes a secret. They are the ones that said that the autopsy should have been released in 2016.

We both know why they won't release. They have no intention of "learning". They plan to support the same things. Also the consultants involved in the party don't want to lose their jobs for being utter failures. This isn't a strategic move in any way.

I mean when the Pod Save guys are calling you out.....



[Lathum]

Mills drops out of the Maine race. I know Platner has had some controversy but ma I hope he beats Collins.