2026 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown races

QuikSand · 05-01-2026, 02:03 PM

Sorry for the delay. Have been less engaged than usual but glad to start this up and share a few thoughts.

Past performances here:

https://www.equibase.com/content/ken...ables2026D.pdf

QuikSand · 05-01-2026, 02:13 PM

A few quick thoughts, please forgive audio typos:

Over the years in various threads like these, anybody who follows this stuff knows my general style as a handicap… I’m a pretty committed believer in pace, that understanding how much pressure the front running horses will face tends to set up the construction of the end of the race fairly often. This year the pace scenario is a little peculiar, and recent years we have gotten used to many precocious front runners qualifying for the derby Field merely on talent, and that often leaves us with four or six committed speed balls in the field of 20 or so. I attribute that to a variety of things, but running to the front is the easiest way to stay out of trouble, and for the increasingly fragile, inbred horses we compete with, that doesn’t seem like a generally unsound strategy.

This year feels a bit unusual. I can pick out a handful from this field that look like they have some interest in running to the front, but nobody who seems terribly committed to it. That usually opens the door for one or more contenders to just decide that their angle to win is to do exactly that, so I suspect a couple will try, but I’m not taking any of them, particularly seriously.

1 RENEGADE appears to be a tepid favorite, he hasn’t really done anything wrong on the trail toward this race, but I think a lot of people have the same vibe that I do… I’m not really sure he’s that good, I don’t like the rail position for him, and I just don’t have an instinct that he is an upward moving horse, we may have seen his best. The latest odds I’ve seen have him around 5-1, that’s fine but not interesting to me.

6 COMMANDMENT also has looked the part of a favorite, and won what is considered to be the most talented prep field of the year, the FL Derby. Good horse. Jockey shifts are a weird sign. And suddenly, the lack of any real vigor behind him seems contagious… I’m not that excited because nobody else seems very excited.

So I’m instead on the third “power horse” from the field coming off a top tier prep win, 18 FURTHER ADO. To me, he simply checks every box that I want from a serious derby contender, his last race was very professional, he finished very cleanly, he has looked sharp since then, he has a win over the Churchill Downs track on his résumé, and connections who know how to win a big race. I don’t make him any kind of overwhelming favorite, but if I get 7 to 1 on him, I will be content with him as my central pick.

QuikSand · 05-01-2026, 02:17 PM

Pasted from a text thread friends:

My Derby thoughts:

Solid field, the likely top two tepid favorites COMMANDMENT and RENEGADE seem fine and generally deserving to be around 4-1 or so. No real arguments, I could use both in my bets. Rail position and jockey defection have me liking for value as always.

I liked everything about FURTHER ADO in his Blue Grass win. If we toss out ambivalence about the synthetic surface, he’d be right there as a favorite. Instead I’m guessing 7-1 or so, and he’ll be my top pick from an outside draw. For me he just checks every box.

For exotics (early wagering odds below) I will use the logical as a bit, but I prefer EMERGING MARKET at 15-1, SO HAPPY at 6-1, POTENTE at 28-1, and I genuinely like GOLDEN TEMPO at 50-1. Gimme a couple of those in the underneath spots and the trifecta could easily launch like the moon rocket.

For now I’m fading the “now” horse THE PUMA as a Swiftie effect, hoping he stays bet down and makes everyone else an overlay.

My prediction:
18 FURTHER ADO
15 EMERGING MARKET
6 COMMANDMENT
19 GOLDEN TEMPO

QuikSand · 05-01-2026, 02:19 PM

Among the horses that want to run to the front, I have been able to tell myself a story that the best among them is probably 16 PAVLOVIAN after he hung in there last time out better than we’d have expected. I will probably have one or two tickets with him scattered in, and maybe even will put him in one of these $10 win bets where you get your money back if your horse runs second or third… The seemingly common promotion by all the various betting sites. 10 bucks out on him at 30 to 1 or so, I could deal with that.

GrantDawg · 05-01-2026, 04:22 PM

My wife is big on Further Ado, Emerging Markets and Commandment. Her favorite is Damon Burbon though.

CrimsonFox · 05-02-2026, 03:56 AM

Bobby Flay with a longshot horse

GrantDawg · 05-02-2026, 07:46 AM

If someone happened to be in a state that doesn't have legal gambling, what is the best safest way to place a bet? Just for science.

GrantDawg · 05-02-2026, 02:26 PM

Wife placed her bets for her first time ever. If Danon Bourbon and Emerging Markets go 1-2, she is going to do very well.

QuikSand · 05-02-2026, 02:51 PM

Good luck to her, I've got a group-built ticket to hit the superfecta, and we've got DANON BOURBON among our top three selections on that ticket

GrantDawg · 05-02-2026, 06:21 PM

That was fun for a minute. We knew he shouldn't have took the lead that early and he wasn't likely to win, but he was right there till the end. We didn't hit on a single bet, but I would have been shocked if we did. Poor Great White. I was wanting to see that big boy run.

QuikSand · 05-02-2026, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Pasted from a text thread friends:

My Derby thoughts:

…and I genuinely like GOLDEN TEMPO at 50-1. Gimme a couple of those in the underneath spots and the trifecta could easily launch like the moon rocket.

…

My prediction:
18
15
6
19 GOLDEN TEMPO

My cherry-picked narrative is “I liked him and used him, just not on top.” Zero cashes.

CrimsonFox · 05-04-2026, 02:39 AM

I just SERIOUSLY don't understand the derby. Am I to understand that there was only ONE race? That all this big deal standing there all day is about ONE race? I wasn't able to figure this out

QuikSand · 05-04-2026, 10:37 AM

First, a "day at the races" is at least a dozen races. If you're not a wagering-inclined person, that might not sounds like much, but I've been to the Derby (and Preakness, and Belmont) numerous times and never, ever, felt "bored." The infield is a big party, the grandstand is a click less so but still lively, but between juleps and horsetalk and people-watching, and everything else... it's just a hell of a day. It's definitely not just standing around for 5 hours for a two-minute race.

QuikSand · 05-16-2026, 05:22 PM

Preakness thoughts:

Having real trouble here. Local hero 1 TAJ MAHAL has won and trained at Laurel and I like that, but the class jump is a lot. His handling of the pace, where he ought to record the front, might determine whether anyone can pass him late. 10 NAPOLEON SOLO may make the lead but I think he’ll work hard to get it, and don’t think he’ll be around toward the end. After waffling I’m using the 1 a lot here, he’s been progressing so well.

12 INCREDIBOLT ran okay in the Derby and is a logical play here. Chad Brown has 9 IRON HONOR who needs a step forward but is gonna be among the favorites too, though I’m not really feeling it. I liked the 20-1 morning line on 5 TALKIN and still am using him, but he’s apparently the wise guy horse and line is way down to 9-1, so with less gusto than initially.

My NY friend and I have shared tickets using 1, 12, and his choice the 7 THE HELL WE DID on top.

My guess:

TAJ MAHAL
TALKIN
INCREDIBOLT

QuikSand · 05-16-2026, 05:23 PM

I think I’m at 6-7 horses I think can definitely win this, not a great spot for wagering. I might hit it, but don’t have high confidence.

05-01-2026, 02:13 PM	#2
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	A few quick thoughts, please forgive audio typos: Over the years in various threads like these, anybody who follows this stuff knows my general style as a handicap… I’m a pretty committed believer in pace, that understanding how much pressure the front running horses will face tends to set up the construction of the end of the race fairly often. This year the pace scenario is a little peculiar, and recent years we have gotten used to many precocious front runners qualifying for the derby Field merely on talent, and that often leaves us with four or six committed speed balls in the field of 20 or so. I attribute that to a variety of things, but running to the front is the easiest way to stay out of trouble, and for the increasingly fragile, inbred horses we compete with, that doesn’t seem like a generally unsound strategy. This year feels a bit unusual. I can pick out a handful from this field that look like they have some interest in running to the front, but nobody who seems terribly committed to it. That usually opens the door for one or more contenders to just decide that their angle to win is to do exactly that, so I suspect a couple will try, but I’m not taking any of them, particularly seriously. 1 RENEGADE appears to be a tepid favorite, he hasn’t really done anything wrong on the trail toward this race, but I think a lot of people have the same vibe that I do… I’m not really sure he’s that good, I don’t like the rail position for him, and I just don’t have an instinct that he is an upward moving horse, we may have seen his best. The latest odds I’ve seen have him around 5-1, that’s fine but not interesting to me. 6 COMMANDMENT also has looked the part of a favorite, and won what is considered to be the most talented prep field of the year, the FL Derby. Good horse. Jockey shifts are a weird sign. And suddenly, the lack of any real vigor behind him seems contagious… I’m not that excited because nobody else seems very excited. So I’m instead on the third “power horse” from the field coming off a top tier prep win, 18 FURTHER ADO. To me, he simply checks every box that I want from a serious derby contender, his last race was very professional, he finished very cleanly, he has looked sharp since then, he has a win over the Churchill Downs track on his résumé, and connections who know how to win a big race. I don’t make him any kind of overwhelming favorite, but if I get 7 to 1 on him, I will be content with him as my central pick.

05-01-2026, 02:17 PM	#3
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	Pasted from a text thread friends: My Derby thoughts: Solid field, the likely top two tepid favorites COMMANDMENT and RENEGADE seem fine and generally deserving to be around 4-1 or so. No real arguments, I could use both in my bets. Rail position and jockey defection have me liking for value as always. I liked everything about FURTHER ADO in his Blue Grass win. If we toss out ambivalence about the synthetic surface, he’d be right there as a favorite. Instead I’m guessing 7-1 or so, and he’ll be my top pick from an outside draw. For me he just checks every box. For exotics (early wagering odds below) I will use the logical as a bit, but I prefer EMERGING MARKET at 15-1, SO HAPPY at 6-1, POTENTE at 28-1, and I genuinely like GOLDEN TEMPO at 50-1. Gimme a couple of those in the underneath spots and the trifecta could easily launch like the moon rocket. For now I’m fading the “now” horse THE PUMA as a Swiftie effect, hoping he stays bet down and makes everyone else an overlay. My prediction: 18 FURTHER ADO 15 EMERGING MARKET 6 COMMANDMENT 19 GOLDEN TEMPO

05-01-2026, 02:19 PM	#4
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	Among the horses that want to run to the front, I have been able to tell myself a story that the best among them is probably 16 PAVLOVIAN after he hung in there last time out better than we’d have expected. I will probably have one or two tickets with him scattered in, and maybe even will put him in one of these $10 win bets where you get your money back if your horse runs second or third… The seemingly common promotion by all the various betting sites. 10 bucks out on him at 30 to 1 or so, I could deal with that.

05-01-2026, 04:22 PM	#5
GrantDawg World Champion Mis-speller Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Covington, Ga.	My wife is big on Further Ado, Emerging Markets and Commandment. Her favorite is Damon Burbon though.

05-02-2026, 03:56 AM	#6
CrimsonFox General Manager Join Date: Dec 2009	Bobby Flay with a longshot horse

05-02-2026, 07:46 AM	#7
GrantDawg World Champion Mis-speller Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Covington, Ga.	If someone happened to be in a state that doesn't have legal gambling, what is the best safest way to place a bet? Just for science.

05-02-2026, 02:26 PM	#8
GrantDawg World Champion Mis-speller Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Covington, Ga.	Wife placed her bets for her first time ever. If Danon Bourbon and Emerging Markets go 1-2, she is going to do very well.

05-02-2026, 02:51 PM	#9
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	Good luck to her, I've got a group-built ticket to hit the superfecta, and we've got DANON BOURBON among our top three selections on that ticket

05-02-2026, 06:21 PM	#10
GrantDawg World Champion Mis-speller Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Covington, Ga.	That was fun for a minute. We knew he shouldn't have took the lead that early and he wasn't likely to win, but he was right there till the end. We didn't hit on a single bet, but I would have been shocked if we did. Poor Great White. I was wanting to see that big boy run.

05-04-2026, 02:39 AM	#12
CrimsonFox General Manager Join Date: Dec 2009	I just SERIOUSLY don't understand the derby. Am I to understand that there was only ONE race? That all this big deal standing there all day is about ONE race? I wasn't able to figure this out

05-04-2026, 10:37 AM	#13
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	First, a "day at the races" is at least a dozen races. If you're not a wagering-inclined person, that might not sounds like much, but I've been to the Derby (and Preakness, and Belmont) numerous times and never, ever, felt "bored." The infield is a big party, the grandstand is a click less so but still lively, but between juleps and horsetalk and people-watching, and everything else... it's just a hell of a day. It's definitely not just standing around for 5 hours for a two-minute race.

05-16-2026, 05:22 PM	#14
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	Preakness thoughts: Having real trouble here. Local hero 1 TAJ MAHAL has won and trained at Laurel and I like that, but the class jump is a lot. His handling of the pace, where he ought to record the front, might determine whether anyone can pass him late. 10 NAPOLEON SOLO may make the lead but I think he’ll work hard to get it, and don’t think he’ll be around toward the end. After waffling I’m using the 1 a lot here, he’s been progressing so well. 12 INCREDIBOLT ran okay in the Derby and is a logical play here. Chad Brown has 9 IRON HONOR who needs a step forward but is gonna be among the favorites too, though I’m not really feeling it. I liked the 20-1 morning line on 5 TALKIN and still am using him, but he’s apparently the wise guy horse and line is way down to 9-1, so with less gusto than initially. My NY friend and I have shared tickets using 1, 12, and his choice the 7 THE HELL WE DID on top. My guess: TAJ MAHAL TALKIN INCREDIBOLT

05-16-2026, 05:23 PM	#15
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	I think I’m at 6-7 horses I think can definitely win this, not a great spot for wagering. I might hit it, but don’t have high confidence.

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