OT: Hooves of Thunder - Derby or bust

[Honolulu Blue]

Having done about all I care to do with my first career in Hooves of Thunder, I decided to accept a new challenge. The goal is to win the Blue Rock Derby or destroy myself trying. The house rules are...

1) Start with the scenario "Silver Lining" - it gives you $10,000 and six two year olds
2) No buying on the private market - ever.
3) No betting.
4) Horses can only be sold on the private market for less than $4000. If I want more than that for my horse, I'll have to get it the old fashioned way - the claiming race.
5) Only 2 year olds can be bought. These can be bought at auction or through claiming races.
6) I'm only limited to 8 horses in the ranch at one time.
7) Limit of two of my horses in the Blue Rock Derby - no fair stacking the deck.
8) The game ends on Derby Day 2006, my running out of money, or with a victory in the Blue Rock Derby, whichever comes first.

Introduction

The game gave me the following horses; the dollar value is their value on the private market, since I have no idea what was paid for these horses:

* HOME TRICK, colt, $7,499
* DOPPLER SHIFT, colt, $10,498
* IMPACTIUM, colt, $10,499
* THE REPAIR MAN, colt, $13,500
* FUZZY DICE, gelding, $10,001
* HIERACHY, filly, $13,502

Since I have no idea how good these horses really are, the only thing I can do is guess. THE REPAIRMAN and HIERACHY look like my most valuable horses, so they will go first, with the others following.

One thing I have to do is rest these guys until at least April 15, since their first races are in early May. It costs less to rest a horse than train him, and I'm going to need every dollar.

May and June, 1996 (year 1)

After their rest, our horses went back to training on April 15.

HIERACHY was our first horse to win her maiden, and in impressive fashion too, on May 5. She led wire to wire, which is a rarity in this game. Her future is unlimited, which makes her the class of this bunch. Unfortunately, her next race won't be until August.

IMPACTIUM won on his third try on a muddy track (June 2). His other apperances were fifth on May 6 and sixth on May 15. He tends to hang wayyyy back and try to close with a late rush. Sometimes it works, usually it doesn't. He's interesting. His next race won't be until August either.

HOME TRICK finished 4th (May 2), 7th (May 16), 5th (June 3), and 8th (June 16) in his outings. He's among the early leaders but fades early, usually after 3 furlongs or so. He's likely to move down the claiming class soon.

DOPPLER SHIFT has three thirds in four races - May 3, June 6, and June 19. He finished fifth in his other race on May 17. He tends to stay in the middle of the pack, then make his move late. His close is good, but not great. Limited future, probably, unless he can compete at longer distances.

THE REPAIR MAN clearly needs a tuneup. He finished 5th in his first race (May 2), then followed that up with an 11th (June 5), and a 7th (June 17). He's mostly early speed, and not enough of that. He is the only horse who has not earned any money for us. He's a nag and we'll get rid of him soon.

FUZZY DICE is hanging in the window, looking for a breakthrough. He was third in his first race (May 4), second on June 5, and third on June 19. He was close in every race. He is among the leaders at the open and has enough speed to stay there, or near there, at the end. I'll keep him around awhile.

My cash is up to $17,985, putting me out of immediate jeopardy. The ranch has won $31,200 in purses so far.

This is where this class splits up. Some will be going to allowance races, some will continue with maidens, some will drop to maiden claimers, some will get more distance, and some will stay where they are. It will be interesting to see what the future holds for each of them.

[QuikSand]

HB, here's a trick that I recommend for making your race cards (particularly the stakes races for 3yos) more realistic.

Set up a second "player" in your game, and start them with $1m (I think that option is called "Swepstakes"). Then (whever you want to, but perhaps in January or so) take over that stable, and go and buy (from the open market, the cheap way) as many of the quality 3yos that you can locate. You should have plenty of cash to do so, they won't be too expensive. Set that stable to "trainer auto-enter" for general purposes, but on an as-neede basis (you deicde how often), go in and manually enter the appropriate horses from that stable into stakes races (use as much or as little judgment as you prefer).

This method will make sure that you get a good, strong and deep field for big races like the BR Derby and the BR Cup (the former of which too often runs with only 4-5 entries, and the latter of which too often is cancelled for lack of entries). It can also make the "prep" season of stakes races in February through April a lot more interesting, as the competition become more familiar and predictable.

That's my recommendation to increase both challenge and enjoyment.

Good luck, in any event.

[Honolulu Blue]

QuikSand:

Thanks for the suggestions. I didn't incorporate them in this game, but may in the future.

[Honolulu Blue]

July-December, 1996 (Year 1)

FUZZY DICE looked OK in a third place showing in his maiden on July 6 at 6f, and repeated the same on July 20 at 5f. We were waiting for a breakthrough and it came on August 16. Against four competitors he proved to be the best. This was a $30k, 5f maiden claiming race, and he was claimed by someone with more vision than me. I was surprised he went so quickly at that price, but not unhappy since he wasn't (I don't think) Derby bound, and we need to make room for someone who might be. His career record with us was (7-1-1-4 $21,116).

THE REPAIR MAN hit the maiden claiming races early and often. His first was at 5f with a $30k price. He finished 4th on July 6. He finished 7th in a $30k, 6f maiden claimer on July 19. He dropped to $20k and finished 5th on August 2, moved back up to $30k and retained 5th on August 17, went to 4th on September 2, and finally got his win on September 19. Due to a bunch of horses needing slots and only a limited number available, he was shuffled to a $12k claimer on October 27 at 8f. He looked decent in 5th but it was academic as he was claimed away. Oh well. His record was (10-1-0-0 $13,832).

After a three month wait, HIERACHY finally found an opening on August 5 in a $15k allowance race (5f). She finished fourth, but won her next try under the same conditions on September 2. She stretched out to 6f on October 5 and finished third. We tried to stretch her out to 8f on November 7, but it didn't take as she finished last. Back to 6f she went on December 5 and promptly posted a victory.

IMPACTIUM also struggled to find slots. On August 8 he raced in a $15k allowance race at 6f and finished 11th. The bad finish was mostly due to congestion in front of him, so we tried to stretch him out. On October 2 he went to a $18k claimer at 8f. He finished second, and we thought that perhaps he had found his niche. November 4 he went out in an allowance race at 8f and came back sixth. His next race was December 2 wasn't too bad, as he finished third in another allowance race.

DOPPLER SHIFT looked good in the maidens he entered in, finishing 4th, 2nd,and 1st on July 5, July 19, and August 4. All of these were at 6f. It was a different story in the allowance races. His first was September 11 at 5f. He finished 8th. The next was October 2 at 8f. Fourth place brought home a little prize money and a little respect. On November 8 he finished 5th of 10 at 8f. On December 11 he finished 8th of 13 at 6f. He looks, at best, like a high level claimer, and his next race will reflect such.

Like a bad neighbor, HOME TRICK hung around the ranch eating oats and contributing little. On Independence Day he had one of his few good races, a fourth at 5f in a $30k maiden claimer. He kept working the maiden claimers with unimpressive results, posting a lot of sixths and sevenths, with a fourth and a second (in a $10k maiden claimer, a real test of quality. Just kidding) mixed in for variety. He's out the door as soon as I can shove his derriere through it, so why bother describing his races in more detail?

I start the year with $83,028. I've won $103,000 in purses so far, but that figures to rise sharply as my horses mature. My plans are to scan the auctions and look for more talent, perhaps bringing two or three to the ranch. HIERACHY is probably my best horse, but doesn't have the endurance for 8f, never mind anything longer, so she won't see Derby action. She'll participate in allowance and stakes level sprints to provide cash for our other operations. IMPACTIUM is probably my best long-distance runner, but he has yet to prove he can win against good company. DOPPLER SHIFT will have to prove himself in the claimer ranks. I hope you haven't become too attached to HOME TRICK, because he really is history.

[This message has been edited by Honolulu Blue (edited 01-27-2001).]

[Honolulu Blue]

January-June, 1997 (Year 2)

HOME TRICK was sent into a 5f, $4k maiden claimer on January 9 in a desperate attempt to get this nag off my hands, and maybe get a winners' check while I'm at it. To my utter shock, he was a somnolent third and no one claimed him. I sold him privately for $2572. His record was (17-0-1-1 $5367).

HIERACHY struggled severely to find races appropriate for his allowance/stakes level skills at short sprints. So on January 25 I entered him in the Abrams Handicap, an 8f, $50k race. It was time to see if he could compete at this level at this distance. The good news is there were only five entrants. The bad news is our girl finished fifth. No more long races for her. On April 7 I finally found a $15k allowance race at 6f, which she won easily - again. She was Derby eligible, but she would have finished last among any reasonable group, so I decided to hold her out and go for another allowance race the next day (May 4). It was one of her rare bad races at this distance as she failed to dominate and instead finished sixth. On June 20 I tried a $35k claimer at 7f. I knew it was risky, but the alternative was to not let her race at all - no stakes/allowance races through the end of July. She finished last and was sucking serious wind at the end. And, of course, she was claimed. I had the usual mixed feelings - she was a great sprinter, but worthless at anything beyond 6f. It's difficult to find races for a horse like that. His career record was (10-4-0-1 $38,999).

I mentioned the Derby briefly above, so I might as well tell the rest of the story. HIERACHY was eligible but wouldn't finish within a furlong of the leader. IMPACTIUM would have been a long shot, but he wasn't eligible. I didn't have any other horses left, and so I sat out of this Derby, which was canceled.

IMPACTIUM finished 5th in an 8f, $15k allowance race on January 2, fifth again in a 10f allowance race on February 7 (the winner, BTW, was my old guy THE REPAIR MAN). He looked good back at 8f in another allowance race at 8f on March 7, less good (6th) in yet another allowance race on April 4. He went down to the claiming class to get some work and maybe some earnings. He looked an iffy seventh on March 17 in a 9f, $35k claimer. He came back to win a $25k claimer at the familiar distance of 8f on May 3. Up in class to $30k on May 18, he was shuffled back to fifth. I tried him in a $35k claimer at 7f on June 5 and got a 7th place finish for my troubles. In more familiar territory ($30k claimer, 8f) he finished an OK fourth on June 22.

DOPPLER SHIFT started slowly in the claimers, finishing fifth and sixth in the two $35k, 7f claimers on January 3 and 16, and fifth again in a $30k claimer at 6f. He finally came through with a third in the mud on Valentines' Day. This was a $30k, 6f claimer. Another muddy track gave him an opportunity for second on March 3 in a $25k, 6f claimer. He moved up to $30k on March 21 and moved back to third. His second career win came on April 3 in a $25k claimer at 6f. He caught someone's eye and they claimed him. No regrets. At least we found his level. He'll be a money maker. I wish it were for us, but I understand these things happen... His career record when he left was (18-2-2-5 $37,763).

We brought in four new horses from the auction block to replace the ones who left.

TUDOR CROWN was purchased for $16,000. He was last in his first maiden on May 2, and last in his second maiden on May 16. Coming in last once in awhile is natural; twice in a row is cut-your-losses time. He was sold for $3675.

LEANNA, on the other hand, was a success story from the start. She was purchased for $23,500, and showed why she was worth it in winning her first maiden on May 4. She came very close to winning the allowance race on June 2, but had to settle for second. She has a good future.

The gelding TEXAS FLAKE raced like a horse with no, um, drive. Ninth in three straight maidens drove me to sell him for $3528. He cost $13,000 at auction, BTW.

RUBY LODGE was a late pickup ($8000) and made her maiden debut on May 15. She was fourth after falling apart in the home stretch. She did it again on June 5, and only finished sixth. She finally blew past the field and held on on June 19 in a big win. I'm extremely suspicious of her chances beyond 5f, but a win's a win.

We have $118,117 in cash as of July 1 and have won $171,248 in purses. Our three horses are IMPACTIUM (still trying to find his level; probably mid-level claiming sprints), LEANNA (looks very good so far), and RUBY LODGE (all speed, no endurance). We will look for another horse or two at auctions or in the claimers to fill out our roster.

[Honolulu Blue]

July-December, 1997 (Year 2)

RUBY LODGE didn't race again until September 24, and that was a $35k claimer at 6f. She proved my doubts about her endurace by finishing 6th. On October 18 she raced in an $18k claimer at 7f, an even worse distance. The good news is she didn't finish last (one other horse was even worse), and she was claimed. Fine with me; she wasn't going to be very valuable just running 5f races. Her career record, if you're wondering, is (5-1-0-0 $10,200)

SAWGRASS was one of my two claimers (the other I'll talk about later). I picked him up for $15k because I saw closing speed in his races. In his only race for me (November 3's $20k maiden claimer, 6f - not the distance I wanted), he finished fourth and contributed $1008 to the cause. A quick and easy profit, though I rather would have kept him.

My other claimer was POPULAR WICK, for $20,000. Again, I saw closing speed in his races. His first race for us was on October 16 - a $20k maiden claimer at 8f. We figured he should do well, considering the competition. Boy did he. He got out in front early - I didn't expect that - and romped home 17 lengths in front. That's the biggest victory I've seen. Clearly he was too good for the claiming class, so we put him in an allowance race on November 12 at 8f. He finished a very close second. We moved him another step up by enrolling him in December 12's Vince Cleaver Memorial Handicap ($50k purse, 8f). He finished fourth of seven, not too bad. He looks like a Derby contender to me.

LEANNA had her ups and downs on the allowance circuit. The first race, Independence Day at 6f, gave her a chance to finish second. She needed just a little more room... On August 3, again at 6f, she didn't start until very late and finished a poor 8th. On September 10 she cashed again with a healthy third, again at 6f. The allowance race stretched out to 8f on October 4. She was held up by a traffic jam and could only manage 6th. Her last two races were victories - November 7 at 6f, and December 5 at 8f. She also looks like a Derby contender.

Our other horse, IMPACTIUM, earned over $23,000 through September - including a victory, two seconds, and a third. This was mostly in $25-35k claiming races at 8f or so. He didn't earn anything after that and started to look a little tired. We rested him for much of December and figures to be back strong in January.

We start the year with $138,765 in cash, two Derby contenders (POPULAR WICK and LEANNA), and a solid mid-level, mid-distance claimer (IMPACTIUM). We've won $244,496 in purses, but that should shoot up sharply this year. We will also go after two or three two year olds at the auction.

[Honolulu Blue]

January-Derby Day, 1998 (Year 3)

POPULAR WICK continued his improbable comeback from the maiden claiming class with two solid showings - a third on January 17 in a $20k allowance race at 8f, and another third in the Steve Olin Memorial Stakes ($100k, 9f). He had a terrible time finding races, so his next race will be in the Derby.

LEANNA cashed in all five of her starts - fourth in the Abrams Handicap ($50k, 8f) on January 24, fourth in the Valentine Handicap ($50k, 6f) on February 7, and fourth in a $15k allowance race on March 2 (8f). She won the Blue Rock Handicap with its $55k purse and 10f distance. She finished third (of four) in the Brandywine Stakes on April 4. She will also compete in the Derby.

IMPACTIUM was able to successfully step up a notch. He finished third in his first race, a $35k claimer at 8f, on January 8, then won the same style race on January 22. Enough of the claiming class for him. He tried out 10f in a $15k allowance race on February 2 and looked terrible, finishing next to last. We tried him again in the Tim Crews Memorial Stakes ($100k, 8f), and he looked worse, though finishing in the same spot. He did well in his next race, a $25k allowance at 8f, finishing second. He was less good in the other two handicaps we entered him in, finishing sixth both times.

We bought two horses at auction, IN THE MOOD ($18,500) and ARTSY FARTSY ($14,500). No races yet - they go for their first times May 4 and May 3, respectively.

With many handicap and stakes races, including the Blue Rock Derby, our cash plunged to $102,444. Career purses are now $439,256.

Derby handicapping

We have two horses in the race, POPULAR WICK and LEANNA. There are four other horses in the field, which is as follows:

1 - * POPULAR WICK 9-2
2 - ROAD SERVICE 4-1
3 - * LEANNA 9-2
4 - VALENTINE DAY 9-2
5 - VERSION 5-2
6 - CHAPPAQUA 7-2

Fast track, no rain, 12 MPH head wind.
Computer "picks" - ROAD SERVICE, CHAPPAQUA, VERSION

POPULAR WICK has been described above. His career record is (12-1-2-5 $50,299). He has the least earnings by far among the field. Very lightly raced this year; can't tell if that will help or hurt. He is better on turf.

ROAD SERVICE has a career record of (9-4-2-1 $109,039). Curiously, he was racing in $35k claimers as late as April 22. Hasn't raced anything longer than 8f. He has some tendency to close from the middle of the pack. Has won 4 times in his last 6 starts.

LEANNA has also been described above. Her career record is (13-4-2-2 $141,398). Some tendency to close from the middle of the pack - won't win if she's too far behind.

VALENTINE DAY has been racing in exclusively handicap and stakes races since December and hasn't finished lower than third yet (five tries). His career record is (9-4-3-2 $324,798). Edged out LEANNA for third at the Abrams Handicap in January, finished second to POPULAR WICK's third at the Olin Memorial in February, and won the Brandywine Stakes in April (LEANNA was third). Great finishing kick, some early speed.

VERSION has a career record of (14-5-1-2 $210,958). Good early speed, tends to fade at 7f and beyond. Was fifth at the Abrams Handicap in January, won the Valentine Handicap in February (LEANNA was fourth), and was fourth at the Brandywine Stakes.

CHAPPAQUA has a career record of (12-4-3-1 $269,679). Exclusively handicaps and stakes since December. A big time closer - the best in this field filled with closers. Participated in most of the same races mentioned above - Abrams (first), Valentine (eighth???), Olin (first), and Brandywine (second).

The race as I see it (I haven't run it yet)... VERSION will lead at the start and probably for the first half mile. Anybody's guess who will be second at that point, though they figure to be well behind. POPULAR WICK and CHAPPAQUA will bring up the rear. Then VALENTINE DAY, LEANNA, and ROAD SERVICE will catch up to VERSION and pass her, trading the lead amongst themselves until 1 1/2 - 2 furlongs to go. Then comes CHAPPAQUA and perhaps POPULAR WICK up from the rear. It should be a furious scramble to the finish, but I pick 'em this way:

Win - CHAPPAQUA (6)
Place - VALENTINE DAY (4)
Show - LEENA (3)

POPULAR WICK, ROAD SERVICE, and VERSION round out the field, in that order.

We'll see if I have a future as a handicapper. Place your bets.

[This message has been edited by Honolulu Blue (edited 01-29-2001).]

[Honolulu Blue]

Blue Rock Derby

I usually don't describe the races in detail, because (in a broad sense) they look so much alike. This, however, is an exception.

VERSION jumped out to an early lead but failed to dominate. His biggest lead was about 4 laps. Second throughout most of this time was ROAD SERVICE. VALENTINE DAY was third, with the others behind them. On schedule, VERSION started to tire between furlongs 6 and 7. CHAPPAQUA blew by on the outside and took the lead before anyone could question it. He cruised to a 7 length win. VALENTINE DAY also rallied to take second. LEENA got stuck behind a slowing VERSION and had to settle for fifth (VERSION took third). ROAD SERVICE took the last money position away in the last few yards. POPULAR WICK never contended and ended up about 4 lengths behind LEENA.

BTW, I quick played the Derby 9 more times and got the following results, including the "real" Derby:

Win - CHAPPAQUA - 8, VALENTINE DAY - 2
Place - LEENA - 4, VALENTINE DAY - 3, ROAD SERVICE - 3
Show - VALENTINE DAY - 4, ROAD SERVICE - 3, LEENA - 2, VERSION - 1

I got nine different trifectas in ten tries.

All in all my first Derby experience was quite interesting, even though it cost me 60 grand. Perhaps we will do better next time. Back to work.

[Honolulu Blue]

May 3-August, 1998 (Year 3)

Derby contender LEENA came back with a win in the Isabel McInnes Memorial Stakes ($100k, 7f) but struggled the rest of the time - fifth and last in June 14's Sabrina Chase Handicap ($100k, 9f), fifth and next-to-last at the Alexa Zambalas Stakes on July 4 ($275k, 11f), fourth and last in the White Rose Stakes on July 11 ($100k, 8f), and fifth and last in the Figure 8 Stakes ($275k, 8f). Granted, she was finishing fairly close to the lead (5-10 lengths mostly) and granted, she was facing the rest of the Derby field most of the time. But she was looking a little tired, so we gave her the rest of August off and hope she comes back strong.

Our other Derby contender POPULAR WICK did no better, really. Fourth and next to last in the Taurus Handicap ($50k, 8f) on May 24. Third (of 5) in the June 14 Sabrina Wick Handicap ($50k, 9f), fifth and last in the Bella Paola Stakes ($100k, 12f) on July 5, and fifth and last in the Leo the Lion Handicap ($65k, 8f). He also faced some of the Derby field and sometimes the group of horses just below that. They beat him consistently and will probably continue to do so. He may need to step back to allowance races.

IMPACTIUM did fairly well in his starts after a subpar ninth at the Iguana Handicap ($50k, 9f). On May 20, he was just nosed out for the win in a $25k allowance race at 8f, settling for second. He finished third in a similar allowance race on June 17, and won a $15k allowance race on turf on July 4. Back to the handicaps he went. A fair fifth on July 14 ($70k handicap, 7f), fourth in August 6's Down Home Handicap ($65k, 8f), and third in the quirkily named R & M Aga Baba Memorial Handicap ($50k, 10f) on turf again.

ARTSY FARTSY finished sixth in her first race (May 3), showing early speed but not enough endurance to hang on. She finished a decent fourth in her next maiden (May 17), inspiring hope that maybe she's not worthless after all. She went to 12th in the mud on June 4 and 6th on June 18. She may not be worthless, but she's not worth very much. I sold her for $3381.

IN THE MOOD finished fifth, fourth, fourth, and ninth in his maidens. Like ARTSY FARTSY, he has early speed but is unsuccesssful at hanging on to the lead. Not very valuable, so we sold him for $3944.

We picked up what may have been the steal of the century in one of June's auctions - ROAD RUNNER, a horse with excellent breeding that my trainer says is "champion quality" for the low, low price of $8000. Usually horses like that go for upwards of $100,000. We placed him in a maiden on July 3. True to his name, he blew by the rest of the field in the last two furlongs to get the win. He was so-so in his first allowance race on August 6, finishing 6th. He's a deep closer and needs more distance, which he'll eventually get.

Paying all those entry fees with limited return dropped our cash all the way down to $107,668. Purses are $626,416. We still have the four horses mentioned above. We'll pursue one or two more horses in the auctions and/or claimers, even though we won't get a chance at the Derby next year (due to a program bug) and try to place our horses in spots where they can win.

[Honolulu Blue]

September-December 1998 (Year 3)

ROAD RUNNER, our Derby hope if we could get in the Derby next year, did well once he was stretched out. But first, on September 3, she took a licking in an allowance race at 5f, finishing 8th. On October 2, she got 8f and finished a much improved fourth. He won his next allowance on November 5 at the same distance, finished third on December 3, and won again on December 19. These were all 8f allowance races. He gets his first stakes race next month.

LEANNA got things turned aroun starting on September 5 with a third in the Reuben James Stakes ($250k, 7f). She then took the Excalibur Handicap ($50k, 6f). At the Sterling Handicap on October 18 ($50k, 9f), the competition proved to be too much and she finished fifth. She won again at the Royale Handicap ($50k, 6f), then took third at the Little Miss Muffet Stakes ($125k, 7f). Her year did not end on a good note as she took last in the Ambiguity Stakes ($100k, 9f). Perhaps she had been mislabeled a distance horse when she was really built for short dashes. I'll make a note of it.

IMPACTIUM, the only horse who's been with us from the beginning, had some moderate successes. He finished fourth at the Gryphon Handicap ($60k, 8f), but was thumped (9th of 10) in a $25k allowance race on October 16. He followed his sixth place finish in the Scorpio Handicap ($50k, 8f) with a surprisingly solid third at the Phar Lap Stakes ($110k, 9f).

POPULAR WICK started with more of the same mediocrity - seventh at the Virgo Handicap ($50k, 9f), and ninth at the Libra Handicap ($50k, 7f). We stretched him out at the Blue Rock Route, which had a purse of $110k and went for 10 furlongs. There were only four horses there, and, shockingly, he won going away. It was probably a fluke, since he followed that with a well-beaten third (of four) at the Astrophysics Handicap on December 6.

Cash on hand is up to $254,984 and our purses are $963.256. We will, of course, be aggressive in the auction market next year. Don't be surprised to see IMPACTIUM or POPULAR WICK drop into some high level claimers to make room.