04-26-2004, 02:30 PM | #1 | ||
College Prospect
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Not that you asked but here is my take on this weekends draft. (49er Specifc)
My wife was out of town and I literally watched about 10 hours of the draft Sat-Sun and have read hundreds of pages of analysis leading up to and after the draft – needless to say I am a big draft nut.
I also know a fair bit about football having played in HS and college and having coached off and on at the high school and JC level for the past 15 years. I have also followed the Niners since the early 70's having grown up in San Francisco. 1-31 WR Rashaun Woods - I like Woods, he should be a good player but I am disappointed the Niners traded down in the first round when they had a chance to draft Wilfork. The 49ers were unbelievable fortunate to have a player like DT Vince Wilfork fall all the way to 16th – This guy is the next Bryant Young. Woods should be a good solid pro but Wilfork is going to make 5 Pro Bowls. They should have kept the pick and got their Bryant Young replacement. Now I have to watch him go to the pro bowl and win superbowls with New England. Entirely possible Woods would have still been there at #46 since many teams considered him too slow and they could have had Wilfork and Woods and no other receiver was taken 32-45. The problem is they are now the cheapest team in the league and don't want to pay anyone "first round money" 2-46 G Justin Smiley – Could be the best pick they made. Most scouts had him as a first rounder. He is a Niner style lineman with good mobility. He should start this year at RG. Still would have preferred Wilfork in the first and Woods here though. 2-58 CB Shawntae Spencer – I am always weary of guys whose stock move up because of their “work-outs” I want football players who make plays on the football field, not guys who look good in the gym. Having said that the Niners do desperately need help at corner and this was a very weak draft for corner after Hall and Robinson, not sure who else would have been any better. 3-77 WR/KR Derrick Hamilton – This team needs playmakers and Hamilton is a playmaker so that is good. My only concern is most scouts consider him more of a return guy then a receiver. And the third round is awful high to draft a return guy. 4-104 DT Isaac Sopoaga – His name sounds like a tribe name on Survivor. In all seriousness I think this is a solid pick. We need help at DL and this guy is strong and athletic. My hope is this is their big steal of the draft. 4-127 MLB from Oregon St. Richard Seigler - Linebacker might be the only position on the team they DON"T need - this looks like a Steve Spurier pick to me (I coached him in college, I know him, so I am going to draft him) With so many other holes to fill – he better be a future pro bowler 6-188 P Andy Lee – No doubt the niners desperately need help at Punter, but of the top 10 punters in the NFL last year half of them were not drafted at all, simply signed as rookie FA’s. If you are a team like the Patriots with talent throughout the roster, or you see a Punter with the ability of Shane Lechler sure go ahead and draft a punter. But when you are a team that is as talent thin as the niners are, I don’t believe you can afford the luxury of drafting a punter. Should have got more help on the O and D line here and picked up a punter as a rookie FA. 6-198 FS Keith Lewis – Good gamble here, but I am a little concerned about reputation as a disturbance in the locker room. Niners do need safety help and good safeties can often come in the late rounds. 7-217 QB Cody Pickett – Hey it’s the 7th round so expectations are pretty low, but I am not sure why they would go QB here. They already have 3 young QB’s that need to be developed, not sure how much attention he is going to get as the 4th QB. I would hate to be Rich Olson (Niners QB coach) he has his work cut out for him this year. Would have preferred taking a shot at another corner here. Pickett looks like a training camp cut and/or practice squad player. 7-226 DT Christian Ferrera – I like this pick this late. Team desperately needs help on the D-Line and he is a good gamble here. Some non-niner thoughts: Chargers – Absolutely raped the Giants in the Eli Manning deal. They got the QB they preferred and a 1, 3 and a 5! Unbelievable! Giants fans will look back on this day as the day that killed the franchise. I like Eli Manning, but he made a real stupid move, he has set himself up for more pressure then maybe any QB ever drafted and why on earth he thinks the Giants are better then the chargers I do not know. Attention Archie and Eli – the Giants had the same awful record (4-12) as the chargers last year! He would have benefited greatly by one of the top 5 skill players in the league in LaDainian Tomlinson AND the Giants allowed the 2nd most sacks in the league last year. The Giants made a Hershel Walker trade to get him and now he gets the scrutiny of the NY media. And with Eli as the starting QB – that #1 they traded could very well be a top 5 pick next year. Manning = dumb, Giants = dumber, Chargers = looked dumb, ended up with a brilliant move. Raiders – After their coaching fiasco, they had one hell of an off-season. Gallery is a flat out Stud – great pick. And getting Washington and Sapp has improved their DL tremendously. Best OL and DL off-season of any team in football and you know what they say about the line. Lions – Great draft for them, filling two holes with two players as great as Williams and Jones. Their offense should be pretty darn good in the next few years. Dallas Cowboys – Um, Hello? Anyone home? I have more respect for Bill Parcells then any other coach in football, but I simply don’t get this. They are lucky as hell to have Stephen Jackson fall into their lap and they trade down! I was more surprised by this then the Niners trading down. I usually see 4-5 Notre Dame games a year, and Jones always impressed me more as a returner then a RB. Even Kevin Jones or Chris Perry made more sense then J.Jones. Very, very odd. Now if Buffalo stumbles this year and that pick becomes a top 5 and Julius IS the next Emmit Smith then we have something, but I just don’t see it. Denver Broncos – Tatum Bell – next 1,000 yard low round pick(relatively) running back for Mike Shanahan. Cleveland Browns – Kellen Winslow is the next, well Kellen Winslow. I would have loved to see the Niners trade up to get him. I guess I will have to settle for squinting my eyes and pretending Garica is still on the Niners as he completed pass after pass to this stud. Personally the only player in the draft I would have selected ahead of Winslow is Gallery, and that is more because of the relative importance of a LT to a TE then the players themselves. Buffalo Bills – Bills had an odd draft. Evans was a reach at 13 and I think they could have got Losman in the 2nd round. You should get a lot more talent drafting 13 and 22 then they did. New England – Rich get richer. As fore mentioned, Wilfork is a stud and will replace Ted Washington quite nicely. Won’t be as big a run stopper, but is more athletic and obviously a lot younger. Funniest Moment of the Telecast: The look backs over the past 25 years. Especially the Jets fans – no matter who they drafted the reaction was always the same “ohhhhhh, are you frickin kiddin me that guy is a bum!” Especially funny when some of the picks such as Hugh Douglas, Kyle Brady, Aaron Glenn turned out to be pretty good players. But considering they also drafted these busts in the first round; Jeff Lageman,Blair Thomas,Browning Nagle, you can understand why they always react that way Oddest: The NFL cap ads would have been funny, if Manning hadn’t made such an ass of himself – “what happened to the chargers” he asks in the ads. If he would have shut up about the whole thing the ads would have been very funny as it was they just came off as odd and of course if you watched the draft as long as I did, you saw it 200 times. Final thought RIP Pat Tillman – a hell of a football player, and a much better man. |
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04-26-2004, 02:47 PM | #2 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: York, Pa
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Funniest Moment of the Telecast: The look backs over the past 25 years. Especially the Jets fans – no matter who they drafted the reaction was always the same “ohhhhhh, are you frickin kiddin me that guy is a bum!” Especially funny when some of the picks such as Hugh Douglas, Kyle Brady, Aaron Glenn turned out to be pretty good players. But considering they also drafted these busts in the first round; Jeff Lageman,Blair Thomas,Browning Nagle, you can understand why they always react that way
Browning Nagle was a 2nd round pick
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04-26-2004, 03:01 PM | #3 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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If your criticism revolves around the 49ers being able to get Rashaun Woods at pick #46, I think it's misplaced. That would have been an extreme longshot, in my judgment (and that of most observers, I think).
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04-26-2004, 03:08 PM | #4 |
Roster Filler
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Side bet - Woods makes more pro bowls than Wilfork. Actually makes more pro bowls than Roy, Reggie, Lee Evans, and Mike Jenkins combined.
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04-26-2004, 03:10 PM | #5 | |
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04-26-2004, 03:11 PM | #6 | |
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04-26-2004, 03:12 PM | #7 | |
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04-26-2004, 03:13 PM | #8 | |
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I'll take that bet. How much money do you have? |
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04-26-2004, 03:28 PM | #9 | |
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He would never have been there at 46. They had a moment of panic when Atlanta traded up to take a WR that it was going to be Woods. Neither Jenkins nor Woods would have made it past San Diego at the beginning of the second, as WR poor as that team is.
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04-26-2004, 03:28 PM | #10 | |
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Only willing to bet on Wilfork The other is just a hunch. I think Woods is by far going to be the best WR other than Fitzgerald out of this group. And more money than you can afford to bet.
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04-26-2004, 03:29 PM | #11 |
College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Davis, CA
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I think there is no way Woods would have been available at 46. Once Reggie Williams was off the board, I think the 49ers did about as well as they could filling specific needs with what was available.
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04-26-2004, 03:41 PM | #12 | |
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Location: St. Paul, MN
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Besides the above, I agree with just about everything you said (I also don't think Losman would've been there in round 2 for Buffalo...Green Bay or St. Louis might've scooped him up). Here's what Parcells is thinking: "I can't win the whole thing in 2004. The earliest I can truly compete for a Super Bowl is 2005." Don't listen to all those people who think it's a small step for Dallas to get to 12-4 after being 10-6 the year before. If you saw the Dallas - Carolina game in the playoffs last year, you know they're nowhere close. Both lines got manhandled, Quincy and Hambrick looked lost, Mario Edwards got toasted...all the warts from the regular season essentially. They were pretty fortunate to reach 10-6 last year and it wouldn't be a big surprise to see them drop to 8-8 or so this year with Washington and New York improved from last year. Having said all that, they felt the running backs were close enough to slip down 20 spots to get a lower-ranked one and pick up a first round choice that probably will be pretty decent (between 8 and 18 or so) next year to help take care of holes exposed this season. Drew Henson next year will really be able to challenge Quincy Carter for the number one QB position if Quincy bombs. Also remember, how many high pick RBs have been nothing but busts and how many good ones have been found after round 1? Way back when, the Cowboys had Blair Thomas ranked higher than Emmitt Smith on their board... All in all, I think the move makes perfect sense for Dallas. Look for them to really make their move in 2005. Anything they get this year would be unexpected (but welcome if it happens). |
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04-26-2004, 07:13 PM | #13 | |
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EDIT - Oh, and I agree with others that there was no way Woods would have been left at 46 had we not picked him.
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04-26-2004, 07:48 PM | #14 | |
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Join Date: Sep 2002
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I agree with the Cowboys thoughs echoed in later threads. The Cowboys got alot of picks, and seem not ready for a running back. To be honest, Parcells need to build the line and quarterback first before bringing in a running back. We also have to remember, just because Jackson is still out their, does that make him the best "pick" in terms of "fit"? They got a second round pick, a fifth round pick and a first round pick next year? As for the Bills (they are my team), I was alittle concerned with Evans (I though they could dealt down). He was a reach, but every "receiver" was in terms of where they went (Williams, Woods, Jenkins, ect.). Evans is what the Bills need, a Pearless Price player with the deep-speed. Losman, he would of been gone for by the Packers/Rams picks, and would of no way lasted past the end of the first five picks of the second round. The Bills needed to get a future franchise quarterback, and would of had to get one next year. They did it the way of the Ravens did last year, get the quarterback they want a year early. If Bledsoe is gone after this year, they'll have a quarterback who is alot more ready in Losman, with a year of learning, developing and experience, then taking a rookie next year. I think Losman has the most upside of the "top four" quarterbacks. He's the most all-around, just needs to answer his "questionable" character and is a raw. I also wouldn't be suprised if Willis MacGehee steps up and is an outstanding, healthy player, to see Buffalo shop Travis Herny for a first round pick. Last edited by SunDancer : 04-26-2004 at 07:49 PM. |
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04-26-2004, 07:48 PM | #15 |
High School JV
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Hillsboro OR
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Everyone knew they were going to take a WR early, they didn't trade up or have a chance to get into the top group of WRs, so trading down makes sense to me. I don't think they had to have a top DL this year, just a plugger to maybe take some pressure /attention away from Young. I really like what I'm hearing about Sopoaga. He's big and strong, could be Ted Washington-esque. The punter doesn't bug me only because he should be an improvement for them and cheaper than Lefluer or whoever the P was last year. Their special teams should be improved this year, and I think that will help them...Will it be enough, who knows?
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04-26-2004, 08:03 PM | #16 |
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The biggest problem with the Bills isn't the trade of a future first round pick for Losman (though if I ran an NFL team, I would never part with a future first round pick), but that it basically signals they made a huge mistake in paying a first round pick for Bledsoe.
By the way, I don't think Buffalo will get a first round pick for Henry. My guess is third round, maybe second. |
04-26-2004, 08:06 PM | #17 | |
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If you can't see the difference between the Giants and the Chargers, you might be blind. Giants have
The fact that the Giants are a better situation isn't even up for debate. Now I personally don't think they really overpaid for Manning, but that's my opinion. People seem to be split 50-50 on that. The 5th round pick next year is basically a throwaway pick - that's not going to change anyone's perception of the deal. So they basically gave up a high 3rd rounder and a future 1st rounder. I really don't think that's too bad for the guy the Giants obviously felt was the clear-cut #1 QB in the draft. Now if their #1 ends up being a top-5 pick next year, the Chargers will have really made out on the trade (in the short term). Long term, it's really going to be up to how Manning and Rivers play. History tells us they probably won't both be all-pros. And for the record, i'm a Jets fan - so don't brand me as a homer. |
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04-26-2004, 08:12 PM | #18 |
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For the record, if the Herschel Walker deal didn't kill the Vikings franchise (they drafted brilliantly with what little they had), then this deal won't kill the Giants.
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04-26-2004, 08:17 PM | #19 | |
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yeah, and the Walker comparison is nuts. The Giants are only giving up a 1st, 3rd, and 5th. That will in no way kill a franchise. The two first round picks for Keyshawn didn't kill Tampa, and that was highway robbery. |
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04-26-2004, 09:36 PM | #20 | |
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Well, the reason they went after Losman is that Bledsoe is not getting younger, and this could be his last year of his contract. It's not neccessary that they made a "huge miskate", but more that the Bills need to get a franchise quarterback in the next two years. If the Bills decide Bledsoe isn't worth the three pricey years in options, then they have the franchise quarterback groomed. Herny will fetch atleast a second rounder (and a late first round pick could be possible). If Corey Dillion can fetch a early second round choice, then a couple years younger, better attitude and more productive Herny is alot more valuable. Good running backs are hard to find in the draft, and teams seem to willing to part with good value to get a good one (the Jets-Martin, Walker-Giants, Dillion-Patroits, Faulk-Rams (could of gotten more then a 2nd and 5th round pick-Indy), Williams-Dolphins). Last edited by SunDancer : 04-26-2004 at 09:39 PM. |
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04-27-2004, 12:19 AM | #21 | |
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or if you prefer you can look at that they gave up a 1st, 3rd and 5th to move up three spots! Two first round picks for Keyshawn was an incredibaly bad deal in retrospect but remember at the time he was off back to back Pro Bowls in 98 and 99, and in case you haven't notice the Bucs started to pay the price last year for lack of young talent. Anything less then numerous Pro Bowls and superbowls for the Giants and a Ryan Leaf like bust by Phillip Rivers and this is a bad deal for the Giants. |
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04-27-2004, 12:52 AM | #22 | |
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1. There is no debating Eli’s reputation took a major hit this weekend. Obviously not something that can’t be repaired with a Hall of Fame Career (see John Elway) but the Manning name held much more esteem in the average NFL fan two weeks ago then it does today. 2. Coaching Situation. I really don't consider Tom Coughlin job situation secure (maybe you being in NY and me being on the west coast know something I don’t). He has yet to even coach a game for them and if Eli starts, which he essentially has to they could be very, very bad in 2004. They go 2-14 and I see the buzzards circling. Also overall career record Coughlin 68-60. Schottenheimer 165-113. Both are average to above average coaches. Neither has done much of note in the playoffs. 3. Barber, Hilliad, Toomer, Shockey vs LT and absolutely nothing else. No doubt the Chargers cupboard is pretty bare beyond LT. But he is far and away better then anyone the Giants and is debatably the best young back in all of football. His numbers are all the more impressive when you consider how little else the Chargers have. Giants absolutely have them at WR there is no debating that – Overall I would say the Giants have more offensive talent, but the Chargers have a great player. Plus last year the Giants were 30th in points scored, the Chargers 16th. 4. Giants defense ranked 29th in points allowed last year, the Chargers 31st. They both suck 5. O-Line – no stat really does a good job of evaluating OL. Run yardage is a combination of the back, the line, the passing game, the game situation, the team philosophy, etc,etc. Sacks allowed has as much to do with the Qb’s ability to make quick decisions, avoid the sack, open receivers, blah, blah, blah. In the end the only people who can tell you how well the O-Line is playing is the O-Line coach, after he has watched the film. I do know that the conventional wisdom (which I admit is often wrong) is that the Giants O-Line is a weakness. Is it better then the Chargers, I really don’t know. But clearly neither of these teams have strong units. In the end, I think we are looking at two very flawed teams (duh, they both finished 4-12) When you add the additional pressure that he has put on himself by essentially choosing the media spotlight that is NY and all the choices they gave up for him and it is hard to understand why he wanted this trade so bad. |
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04-27-2004, 02:40 AM | #23 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
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My main problem with the Bills drafting this past 2 years is they have picked up 2 players who are one hit away from a career ending injury. There is a reason nobody thought McGahee would go until the 2nd or 3rd last year and a reason Evans could have slipped into the 2nd this year. I think it was a very bad move to take Evans over the other WR's still on the board, if they really wanted to take him they could have moved down 10-12 picks and even if he hadn't been there Jenkins or Woods would have been.
Judging rookie QB's by "upside" is a dangerous, dangerous game. I'm afraid I have heard too many negative things about Losman to think he can deal with the mental pressure of the NFL but on the other hand the Bills had nothing else to do except wait for Matt Schaub. Personally I'd have hung onto next years pick and seen if I could have moved up because neither of those options is particularly great. Bledsoe will hang around for one year, possibly two if he reworks his contract and can still be an above-average QB in the right system. If Bledsoe only has one season I'm sure the Bills can survive with a stopgap for a year. I wouldn't have pulled the trigger on a marginal QB with great upside this year especially not for next years first. And I don't think the difference between the Chargers and the Giants AT THE MOMENT is all that much. Chargers O-Line is young and was horribly decimated by injuries last year but if everyone is healthy it's better than the Giants. Where the Chargers get killed is on defense, particularly run defense. No doubt the Giants future situation is much better but you have to weigh that against the extra pressure of playing in NY. If Eli isn't all-pro by his third season (and if he struggles mightily in his second) watch out. |
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