FOF: After reading the HOF thread, I have to rant about QB stats

[amdaily]

QB stats are still not even close to mimicking real life. I had one QB, on an AI team, throw 36 TD's and 2 INT's in 16 games in a recent season. The top 10 QB's can be counted on to thow less than 7 INT's each. In the NFL the average is closer to 3, and in 2001 a total of zero kept their INT's under 7.

FOF QB's pass Dan Marino's career TD record as if it were nothing. Young and Montana (and Warner) are the only QB's to finish a career with a 90+ QB rating, while my career currently has 8 players above in the in the first decade alone.

As for the AI, I suspect the HOF criteria for a QB is often based on real life since 1. The HOF is dominated by QB's, and 2. even QB's who have a .500 or less career winning percentage make it into the HOF easily because of their QB rating.

This brings me to the TD to INT ratio, the most telling statistic in this regard. Look at the all-time NFL leaders in this category (doesn't include last season):

Garcia (2.21, 95 TD's-43 INT's)
Young (2.17, 232-107)
Montana (1.96, 273-139)
Neil O'Donnell (1.76, 118-67)
Gannon (1.74, 171-98)
Farve (1.67 314-188)

After 10 years my current league, I have 7 players (5 active, 2 retired) that are absolutley crushing Garcia's ratio including 1 guy with a 171 - 56 (3.05) ratio! Except his rookie season and his 3rd season he's never thrown more than 7 INT's in a season. For comparison, Favre has never thrown less than 13 in a season and Garcia never less than 10.

I'd love some feedback on this as my QB theory has remained the same since 5.0a - elite QB's are too dominate while backup QB's are too awful. This accounts for league wide QB stats matching NFL totals while allowing for individual stats that make Favre and Garcia look like amatuers.

[Ben E Lou]

Did you change your injuries to 200?

[spleen1015]

I chuckle to see SkyDog telling someone to change a default to make the game more realistic, even with the .

[amdaily]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Did you change your injuries to 200?

Of course . I conceded that was needed months ago.

Edit - And besides, by biggest qualm at the moment is the TD-INT ratio, which isn't affected by injuries.

I wish I had a longer career to base my stats off of, but I recently formatted the computer. I'm going to run up a few decades this afternoon and do further comparisons.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I chuckle to see SkyDog telling someone to change a default to make the game more realistic, even with the .

This is a "special" case. Jim made the determination (probably correct) that very few people want to play with injuries set that are realistic to the NFL. I begrudgingly accept having to make that change.

amdaily: I ask because I pulled up a 35-year 5.0D career with injuries set at 200 the whole time. I have 14 QB's with >200 TD passes. Of those, only one has a greater than 2 to 1 TD:INT ratio. His is 2.269.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by amdaily

Edit - And besides, by biggest qualm at the moment is the TD-INT ratio, which isn't affected by injuries.

I'm convinced that more injuries change virtually *everything* in this game.

[amdaily]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

I'm convinced that more injuries change virtually *everything* in this game.

In either case, the test I'm running now has default settings on everything(rosters, full x-factor, 28-80 sal cap) and 200 injuries.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

I'm convinced that more injuries change virtually *everything* in this game.

Which is why I've been reluctant to make the change.

I'm not sure I'm willing to "fix" outlandish QB stats at the expense of not being able to keep anybody healthy at all, especially on the O-Line or D-Line.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

I'm convinced that more injuries change virtually *everything* in this game.

That possibly explains something..

I have not asked, but I am 99% confidant that the CFL must have injuries set lower than IHOF does just because there are so few injuries on my team in the CFL, that or I have an amazing coach..

So, the thing that is weird to me is the fact that the scoring in IHOF is WAY higher than the CFL... the top offenses in the IHOF just put up way higher numbers than the CFL... I wonder if this could be a partial explanation?

[Ben E Lou]

The guy with the 2.432 ratio (197 to 81) will still be a starter, but will probably take a hit in his ratio. He got hurt last year, and his ratings are now pretty mediocre. Plus, his receivers stink.

[cthomer5000]

Originally Posted by wade moore

That possibly explains something..

I have not asked, but I am 99% confidant that the CFL must have injuries set lower than IHOF does just because there are so few injuries on my team in the CFL, that or I have an amazing coach..

So, the thing that is weird to me is the fact that the scoring in IHOF is WAY higher than the CFL... the top offenses in the IHOF just put up way higher numbers than the CFL... I wonder if this could be a partial explanation?

I believe our injuries are set at 150.

The fact that we started with a roster generated by a third-party utility could be affecting all sorts of things too.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by cthomer5000

I believe our injuries are set at 150.

The fact that we started with a roster generated by a third-party utility could be affecting all sorts of things too.

Did not realize you used a 3rd party utility. That is probably more a factor than anything else -- although I do believe CFL uses OPU or something, definately not real rosters. I guess I should understand better the start of the league!

[Ben E Lou]

Yeah. We used HR's roster generator.

[amdaily]

After 10 years my stats match up to my previous 10 year career: 8 players with 150+ career TD's that have a 2.0+ TD-INT ratio.

I'll see if that number decreases as they pass the 200+ TD mark.

Perhaps this is, again, a case where the first twenty years of a career have skewed stats for whatever reason (a bad inital player file, the player creation algorithm not matching the initial file, etc).

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Which is why I've been reluctant to make the change.

I'm not sure I'm willing to "fix" outlandish QB stats at the expense of not being able to keep anybody healthy at all, especially on the O-Line or D-Line.

Agreed on this. Injuries add a ton of randomness, and while they may be more accurate it's hard to punish a GM in a multiplayer game with too many injuries. There is just very little you can do to prevent them.

Coach with "Very Good" at avoid injury and a 100 injury setting, and I had one already-developed superstar veteran and 2 young-but-coming starters get hurt last season that are now shells of their former selves. That's on my team alone. I'd hate to see what our teams would look like with the setting at 200.

[Raiders Army]

Look at Peyton Manning over the past six years:

Yards
3739
4135
4413
4131
4200
4267

That's averaging 4147.5 yards a season. If he played for fifteen years at his current average, he'd have a career total of 62,212 yards.

I agree about the TD/INT ratio though.

[amdaily]

All right, I'm finally up to season 35. Below is a screenshot of the passing leaders sorted by touchdown.

As you can see, the number of players with 170+ TD's and a TD to INT ratio of more than 1.75 is out of hand. I'm counting 17. Only 5 have accomplished such a feat in all of NFL history.

Strangely enough, the number of QB's with 170+ TD's falls right in line with the NFL (41 vs 38), but the interception level for these league-leading QB's is significantly below real life averages.

I didn’t set out to find this next stat, but it is quite significant: 22 real life QB’s have reached the 200 INT mark. Only 3 FOF QB’s have.

http://home.earthlink.net/~rjs/carPinter.html

http://www.hickoksports.com/history/...s.shtml#hadint

Further, pertaining to the QB rating itself, only some 25 NFL QB’s finished their career with better than an 80+ ranking. 74, with over 1500 pass attempts, have in FOF.

http://www.profootballhof.com/index....cont_id=186632

http://www.hickoksports.com/history/....shtml#prating

EDIT - One other thing I forgot to mention was the high completion percentage. On a league wide average for all games and all teams, it does average out, but on an individual level, FOF completions are much higher than NFL completions. Only 8 NFL players finished their career's completing 60% or more of their passes, but in FOF somewhere close to 78 did (with over 1500 completions).

http://www.favremadness.com/alltimepassing.html

[gstelmack]

It will be interesting to see how these numbers hold out when some of the multiplayer leagues hit 10 or more years. I'm wondering how much of this is due to poor AI gameplanning.

[amdaily]

Monday morning bump.

Anyone else care about this subject ?

[wade moore]

I am interested, but I am only playing multi-player, so I do not have any data to add.