China-Tawain

[SunDancer]

With the China and Tawain relations starting to get pretty tense, do you think that war will break out if it happen (Tawain has an session bill from China in the works, and China is passing an Anti-Session bill soon that will allow it to declare war)? Also, where do you think we'll stand on the situation?

[Draft Dodger]

Tawain doesn't have oil - they're on their own

[JPhillips]

Do you mean secession bill?

China will thunder, but I don't see them actually firing on Taiwan unless Taiwan starts it. China's economy will de decimated by a war with the west and that could lead to public revolt and the end of their government.

That being said, a China/Taiwan war is the worst case scenario for the U.S. We import so much from these two countries that our economy would grind to a stop in a couple of weeks. I read that one industrial park in Taiwan makes something like 90% of all the world's microchips. (Wouldn't you know it, but the complex lies on a fault line!)

[Dutch]

The article headlined on Yahoo! News fails to mention what the 23 million people of Taiwan want.

[maximus]

What is China's issue?

[Wolfpack]

Pesky little thing called right of self determination. If Taiwan can walk away after all the effort China has put into calling it a "renegade province", China ends up looking bad, especially within its own borders. Not to mention, if Taiwan is independent and the US commits itself to guaranteeing it, the Chinese either have to back down and let Taiwan go, or risk going to war with a nation that can exert force projection much better than they can (amphibious warfare is not something the PLA's particularly trained at and something it would have to do if it were to fight for Taiwan). Though US troops are tied up in a lot of places, air force and naval assets in the region should still give the Chinese headaches and Taiwan isn't exactly going to let them invade unopposed. In short, it's a nasty dilemma which can easily lose them face internationally no matter which option they take.

[Daimyo]

Almost half of taiwan supports "re-unification" anyway. With as much money as US corporations make off mainland China I can't imagine we'd seriously go to war with them over it. Besides I doubt China has the capability right now to actually take Taiwan by force... but it will come eventually if its not solved politically.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

Does any one have any idea how many Airborne/Air Assault divisions and SF units China has within 200 miles of Taiwan?

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

Almost half of taiwan supports "re-unification" anyway.

???

[MikeVic]

I thought this title was Shania Twain

[Desnudo]

Don't forget that China has as much to lose as the US when it comes to economic benefits. It's a two way street. And the reason why we would likely come to the defense of Taiwan is democracy. In case anyone forgot, despite all the reforms, China is still a communist nation. They've been posturing for years, this is likely nothing more than more of that, either meant to get trade concessions from the US or assert their regional power.

And the whole reason Taiwan has never formally declared their independence from the mainland is specifically because they thought China would invade. So that Chinese declaration makes official what was already presumed anyway.

[BishopMVP]

Japan's got a pretty nice Navy in that region as well - particularly with regards to ASW capabilities. China's been building up their sub capability, probably in anticipation of a potential conflict with the US, figuring the only way they have a chance is to take out an aircraft carrier. But they're still far enough behind (and know it) that they won't make any overt move in the near future over Taiwan. The war of words and espionage will continue until, if ever, the stage where China feels certain the US won't be willing to defend Taiwan militarily. IMO.

[Lucky Jim]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

Almost half of taiwan supports "re-unification" anyway. With as much money as US corporations make off mainland China I can't imagine we'd seriously go to war with them over it. Besides I doubt China has the capability right now to actually take Taiwan by force...

I have a friend who has lived in Taiwan for the last three years and she says basically the same thing. This is something both sides have been posturing about on and off for more than fifty years. China has almost nothing to gain from armed conflict with Taiwan and could seriously embarass itself if it got in over its head. And Taiwan obviously has little to gain as well. They're already "independent," and most of them don't see China as an enemy anyway. So I guess I wouldn't worry about all the sessioning.

[Klinglerware]

Yeah, China's military capabilities, while improving, are still not there. I don't think they still have the power projection and sea/air transport capabilities to take Taiwan with reasonable chance of success. Their last major military campaign in Vietnam was of course, less than stellar (and that was an overland invasion)...

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I thought this title was Shania Twain

Ditto. I've read the title about 356 separate times, and every time, I read it the same way.

[Fritz]

Originally Posted by SunDancer

With the China and Tawain relations starting to get pretty tense, do you think that war will break out if it happen (Tawain has an session bill from China in the works, and China is passing an Anti-Session bill soon that will allow it to declare war)? Also, where do you think we'll stand on the situation?

Here is what I understand from open source intel sources:

The battle for Tiwain/China will be fought in ways.

1) denial of sea lans to the island. This will kill the Nationalists in terms of their economy and ability to feed the population

2) amphibious invasion.

---
There is a bit of an arms race between the two in regards of the points above.

China does not currently have the military force to do either (with any certainty) but are developing forces.

In terms of sea lane denial, the Chinese are developing extended aviation and submarine forces. If they commit enough resources, the Tawainese will be unable to defend. In this aspect, the US has made certain "open sea lane" commitments.

In terms of amphibious force, the Chinese are again lacking in ability to deliver and sustain a ground force. Again, they are developing/purchasing fast amphibious capabilites and a Marine Corp. In this aspect, the US is probably in a poor position to provide timely assistance, except by air, unless the Chinese announce their intentions somehow.

Toe to toe on the open field, the Communists have more than enough strength to crush the Nationalists, but when you consider Communist forces available/trained for amphibious operations vs all of the Nationals forces, the ballance shifts quite a bit.

Also consider that the Nationists will be on the defense (usually a plus) and lack of tested amphibious doctrine on the part of the Communists (decidedly a negative).

How the US is expected to respond is a matter of public polic on record. How we really respond - who knows?

[moriarty]

Originally Posted by maximus

What is China's issue?

The Taiwan issue goes way back to Mao if I remember correctly from history class. Chiang Kai Shek (sp?) was the rebel leader who lost the battle to either modernize or liberalize China (can't remember what his goal was). He lost, Mao took power, and Chiang took his band of rebels to an offshore island ... Taiwan.

I guess an analogy would be General Lee losing the civil war and claiming Florida (if Fl was an island). Now you could see where we would want Florida back. But suppose Florida adopted a communist policy. That would piss us off. Now suppose folks in Florida did very well for themselves and many got very rich with their communist policies. You could see where it would become an embarassment for the president. Here's a colony and political philosophy that you denounce, and it's doing alot better than most of your own folks. You could see where the solution would be to take back what's rightfully yours and reunite the people of America (not to mention get rid of a pain in you arse).

That's sort of the way it works in Taiwan. A capitalist society has flourished and made mainland embarrassed for lack of a better word. Add to that liberties practiced on Taiwan (freedom of speech/press) that don't exist in the mainland and it exasperates the situation.

Of course, that's my recollection from history courses a while ago. Maybe someone can correct me.

[judicial clerk]

I don't think China would invade. They are doing too well on the economic front to throw it all away in an attempt to take control of taiwan by force. Instead, I see China adopting more capitalist policies (which would happen to be attractive to Taiwan) and sometime in the more distant future the two countires will develop a diplomatic attitude of "oppenness and understanding" with the final result being some kind of "One China- two systems" ala Hong Kong. This may take a generation or two.

Of course, I didn't think that the U.S. would invade Iraq.

[Klinglerware]

Originally Posted by Fritz

Here is what I understand from open source intel sources:

The battle for Tiwain/China will be fought in ways.

1) denial of sea lans to the island. This will kill the Nationalists in terms of their economy and ability to feed the population

2) amphibious invasion.

---
There is a bit of an arms race between the two in regards of the points above.

China does not currently have the military force to do either (with any certainty) but are developing forces.

In terms of sea lane denial, the Chinese are developing extended aviation and submarine forces. If they commit enough resources, the Tawainese will be unable to defend. In this aspect, the US has made certain "open sea lane" commitments.

In terms of amphibious force, the Chinese are again lacking in ability to deliver and sustain a ground force. Again, they are developing/purchasing fast amphibious capabilites and a Marine Corp. In this aspect, the US is probably in a poor position to provide timely assistance, except by air, unless the Chinese announce their intentions somehow.

Toe to toe on the open field, the Communists have more than enough strength to crush the Nationalists, but when you consider Communist forces available/trained for amphibious operations vs all of the Nationals forces, the ballance shifts quite a bit.

Also consider that the Nationists will be on the defense (usually a plus) and lack of tested amphibious doctrine on the part of the Communists (decidedly a negative).

How the US is expected to respond is a matter of public polic on record. How we really respond - who knows?

Yes you are right, military capability is moot if you cannot deliver it where it is needed. Even if the Chinese could land a large amphibious force, the jury will still be out regarding the performance of the NPA in the face of a modernized Taiwanese military. The Chinese did not distinguish themselves during their invasion of Vietnan, though I am sure that defeat was a wake-up call for many in the Chinese leadership.

I do agree that China would have better success employing some sort of sea-trade blockade...

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by moriarty

The Taiwan issue goes way back to Mao if I remember correctly from history class. Chiang Kai Shek (sp?) was the rebel leader who lost the battle to either modernize or liberalize China (can't remember what his goal was). He lost, Mao took power, and Chiang took his band of rebels to an offshore island ... Taiwan.

Yes and no. Chiang was the leader of the nation prior to the invasion by Japan. After the end of the second World War, Mao led a Communist insurgency against Chiang's nationalist government, and when they lost the war they retreated to Taiwan and set up shop there.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Yes and no. Chiang was the leader of the nation prior to the invasion by Japan. After the end of the second World War, Mao led a Communist insurgency against Chiang's nationalist government, and when they lost the war they retreated to Taiwan and set up shop there.

I thought the communist insurgency started before the Japanese came (which was 5-6 years before WWII started in the Nazi-Poland sense) and then what really killed Chiang Kai-Shek was attacking the Communists after the invasion when the Maoists were just fighting the Japanese?

[TazFTW]

Yes, the Communist Chinese party was started in 1921 and the fighting between the CCP and Kuomintang (the Nationalists, led by Chiang Kai Shek) pretty much started in 1927. The fighting would go on till 1937 when they decided to call a truce to stop Japan from invading. In 1945, Japan surrendered to the US and the US gave its surplus war materials to the KMT but it was not enough to face the red army of the CCP which had been given tanks and other war supplies from Stalin. Civil war broke out in 1946, Peking fell in 1949, Chiang Kai Shek relocated to Formosa (now known as Taiwan), and The People's Rupublic of China was formed.