Werewolf CXXIV - Watchmen (Game Over, Wolves Win!, endpost:704)

[Danny]

I'm going to

Vote Saldana

[hoopsguy]

I'm not ready to jump on the Saldana bandwagon quite yet.

Doesn't mean I won't get there eventually, but I want to put some thought into Day 2 and Day 3 in the context of the new info we have this morning.

[hoopsguy]

Vote history from Day 3:
#283 - Saldana votes DV 1-0
#284 - jeff votes J23 1-1 DV/J23
#293 - Saldana unvotes DV, votes CR 1-1 J23/CR
#300 - EF votes Saldana 1-1-1 J23/CR/Saldana
#306 - DV votes DT 1-1-1-1 J23/CR/Saldana/DT
#309 - PF votes EF 1-1-1-1-1 J23/CR/Saldana/DT/EF
#313 - Hoops votes EF 2-1-1-1-1 EF over J23/CR/Saldana/DT
#324 - CR votes EF 3-1-1-1-1 EF over J23/CR/Saldana/DT
#325 - Jeff unvotes J23, votes CR 3-2-1-1 EF over CR over Saldana/DT
#326 - Danny votes CR 3-3-1-1 EF/CR over Saldana/DT
#330 - EF unvotes Saldana, votes J23 3-3-1-1 EF/CR over DT/J23
#341 - EF unvotes J23, votes CR 4-3-1 CR over EF over DT
#345 - DT votes EF, 4-4-1 CR/EF over DT
#351 - EF unvotes CR, votes Saldana. 4-3-1-1 EF over CR over DT/Saldana
#352 - J23 votes EF. 5-3-1-1 EF over CR over DT/Saldana
#355 - Jeff unvotes CR, votes DT 5-2-2-1 EF over CR/DT over Saldana
#358 - PF unvotes EF, votes Saldana 4-2-2-2 EF over CR/DT/Saldana
#359 - Saldana unvotes CR, votes EF 5-2-2-1 EF over DT/Saldana over CR
#360 - J23 unvotes EF, votes DT 4-3-2-1 EF over DT over Saldana over CR
#363 - Saldana unvotes EF, votes DT 4-3-2-1 DT over EF over Saldana over CR
#364 - EF unvotes Saldana, votes DT 5-3-1-1 DT over EF over CR/Saldana

[Danny]

I'm off to work.

[hoopsguy]

Here is another look at the final votes.

Day 1:
Autumn - 6 (PF 82, CR 95, ntn 100, DV 111, DT 154, EF 157)
- Known Good = DT
- Presumed Good = PF, CR
- Scanned Good = EF
- Unknown = DV
- Unattached Bad = NTN
EF - 4- (hoops 92, saldana 97, Lathum 104, Danny 112)
- Known Good = Lathum
- Scanned Good = Hoops, Danny
- Unknown = Saldana
Danny - 2 - (Autumn 117, Thomkal 123)
- Known Good = Autumn, Thomkal
hoopsguy - 1 - (jeff 89)
- Unknown = Jeff
Did not vote = J23

Day 2:
ntn - 6 - (DV 194, CR 197, J23 227, PF 238, saldana 241, Lathum 244)
- Known Good = Lathum
- Presumed Good = CR, PF
- Unknown = DV, J23, Saldana
saldana - 5 - (EF 195, jeff 199, Danny 223, hoops 232, DT 234)
- Known Good = DT
- Scanned Good = EF, Danny, Hoops
- Unknown = Jeff
Lathum - 1- (ntn 214)
- Unattached Bad = NTN

Day 3:
DT - 5- (DV 306, jeff 355, J23 360, saldana 363, EF 364)
- Scanned Good = EF
- Unknown = DV, Jeff, J23, Saldana
EF - 3- (hoops 313, CR 324, DT 345)
- Known Good = DT
- Presumed Good = CR
- Scanned Good = Hoops
CR - 1 - (Danny 326)
- Scanned Good = Danny
saldana - 1 - (PF 358)
- Presumed Good = PF

[PackerFanatic]

Sal is looking the most suspicious right now...he switched votes three times on day 3, going to cleared villagers each time. It's hard to tell who would be another wolf between Jeff, J23, and DV, with DV being mostly away, but I am leaning toward Jeff - which is why I am going to vote for him to get another candidate on the block today.

VOTE JEFF061

[hoopsguy]

Looking at it this way, I'm struck by DV/J23/Saldana all voting together on Days 2 and 3.

Saldana was fighting for his life those days, so I have a hard time coming down too hard on him directly. But if he is a wolf, it sure seems like he was getting some help.

[Chief Rum]

Just referencing again my thoughts from the Day One vote on EF.

EF was one of the two primary vote targets. We have the theory that the wolves will have split up some. We know the voters on Danny were all villagers. The only other player who didn't vote on either Autumn or EF was jeff61.

My stance has been that jeff61 is a villager. That's the vibe I have gotten off of him. And if saldana is indeed a wolf, then jeff also looks better because he was the one who introduced saldana to the voting process on Day 2, and he never switched.

If jeff is a villager, then our remaining wolves (whether two or three) probably split between Autumn and EF, on the wolf vote split theory for Day One.

EF was voted for by myself, saldana, hoops and Danny. sal is the only one without any clearance at all, and that's why I targeted him the other day.

The wrench is that one of the other three (including EF) could be the cunning, and maybe be our wolf in the vote. So then sal could be innocent after all. Plus, I had suspected PF based on his late vote on Day 2 for ntn that looked like it was setting up to save saldana, but we now know PF is good. Which means that the three votes to save sal came from PF, sal himself (self def) and Lathum, and two of them are confirmed good guys. So there was no clear wolf push to save sal. That could mean the wolves didn't want to risk it. Or it could be there are only two of them, so what push coul dbe made? Or, of course, it could mean sal is innocent.

[Chief Rum]

Again, it's just a vibe. But DV has been very quiet, more than usual, and that has stood out to me. He definitely could be someone to look into, trying to play a quiet game of wolf survival.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Looking at it this way, I'm struck by DV/J23/Saldana all voting together on Days 2 and 3.

Saldana was fighting for his life those days, so I have a hard time coming down too hard on him directly. But if he is a wolf, it sure seems like he was getting some help.

Post #352 - J23 put up a vote that, in hindsight, is very protective of Saldana. Pushed margin to 5-3 EF over Saldana, and then changed vote late to help bury villager DT.

Again, the J23 stuff is predicated on Saldana as wolf. If Saldana shows as villager, this is not as big a deal. But it is pushing me towards Saldana as the vote to learn something today.

[hoopsguy]

The wrench is that one of the other three (including EF) could be the cunning, and maybe be our wolf in the vote. So then sal could be innocent after all. Plus, I had suspected PF based on his late vote on Day 2 for ntn that looked like it was setting up to save saldana, but we now know PF is good. Which means that the three votes to save sal came from PF, sal himself (self def) and Lathum, and two of them are confirmed good guys. So there was no clear wolf push to save sal. That could mean the wolves didn't want to risk it. Or it could be there are only two of them, so what push coul dbe made? Or, of course, it could mean sal is innocent.

This is where I'm still struggling, CR. I'm trying to play with the idea that we don't go hunting for the cunning wolf, but it sure is in my thoughts as they relate to EF. Escaping pressure 3 times, revealing a role that is dubious to be in the game, being "saved" last night by a very questionable group ...

I've typed, and then erased, analysis a couple of times that drifted into this territory.

[EagleFan]

I don't think this should be a runaway vote but put two of the "untrusted" list against each other.

[EagleFan]

hoops keeps popping back on my radar with his stubborn tunnel vision on me. I guess that's a good way to keep people from looking at you...

[EagleFan]

Funny how I remember being in a game with him where he insisted that we not even talk about the possibility of a cunning in a very similar situation and that we only should focus on the uncleared players. Now he keeps harping on me, a seer cleared player (the same as him). The only difference between us is that I have a role and one that can only be dangerous to the wolves if I am left alive to the end. They also have two other roles now that they need to worry about with CR and PF so they don't want to have to waste a NK on me but need me out of the way before the end. I guess that would give the wolves reason to want to keep me in the spotlight for a possible lynch.

[hoopsguy]

EF, I'm not trying to get the vote on you today. I'm just explaining why I'm having some challenges with analyzing the data in a black/white manner.

[EagleFan]

I may not be back on much today and I will be away at the deadline (poker night). If I can get on sometime this afternoon for a small break I will, if not I may try to get online before going out.

Hopefully we catch a wolf tonight.

[hoopsguy]

I could get behind either a DV or Jeff vote today, and will probably go with one of them as the alternate candidate to Saldana. I agree that we want something that looks like a race early on to see what kind of movement might emerge late.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

EF, I'm not trying to get the vote on you today. I'm just explaining why I'm having some challenges with analyzing the data in a black/white manner.

As I said, I have seen a very similar scenario in which you didn't even want to entertain any worry about the cunning until we got through the uncleared list. There must be some reason for the change (can't remember if you were a wolf then or not; so it could be a good or bad reason for the change).

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

As I said, I have seen a very similar scenario in which you didn't even want to entertain any worry about the cunning until we got through the uncleared list. There must be some reason for the change (can't remember if you were a wolf then or not; so it could be a good or bad reason for the change).

I almost always play the percentages. Chasing the cunning is a low percentage play and it won't drive my vote on a day where we are not on the brink of losing (or so I assume).

But ignoring it with vote and ignoring it when trying to evaluate data are two different things. I'm still trying to make sense of voting patterns that are surprising to me on a number of levels.

[saldana]

my question to Chief Rum:

does your scan come up as "EF is good" or does your scan say "EF is the marine"?

that makes a big difference to me in terms of whether or not i buy his reveal or not

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by saldana

my question to Chief Rum:

does your scan come up as "EF is good" or does your scan say "EF is the marine"?

that makes a big difference to me in terms of whether or not i buy his reveal or not

No role info. Just says he's good. Same message I got for hoops and Danny.

[jeff061]

Not sure how that really comes into play anyways. We know how cunning and seer works. Do we really think hints are going to be dropped in during the reveal? Would defeat the purpose of the roles.

That aside, we aren't really focusing on the cunning's today.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Not sure how that really comes into play anyways. We know how cunning and seer works. Do we really think hints are going to be dropped in during the reveal? Would defeat the purpose of the roles.

That aside, we aren't really focusing on the cunning's today.

you might not be, but that doesnt mean i am not. everything to this point in EFs game points to him as the cunning to me.

1. he came out very aggressively, which can be a tactic to lure a scan.
2. he claimed a role that cannot be validated, and, if he is a wolf, he would know could not be countered.
3. he scanned "good"

[jeff061]

Don't necessarily disagree. Will worry about that tomorrow .

[hoopsguy]

OK, lets see if we can get this going.

I'm putting Jeff out there among the other candidates because I think he is less likely to be on the same side as Saldana/J23 or Saldana/DV. If I was convinced Saldana was a wolf I would try to avoid introducing second candidates entirely. Here, I'm trying to put out an alternate unproven candidate who has higher wolf probability (in my mind, at least) than the others if Saldana does turn out to be a villager.

VOTE JEFF061

[saldana]

fwiw hoops, i would have preferred Darth...as i said yesterday, he is playing a very similar game to what he did in Dune, where he was a wolf...i did have the luxury in that one of knowing he was a wolf, so maybe i am seeing something that isnt there, but i dont have a problem going with jeff either (as long as it isnt me )

[jeff061]

Well, wanted to wait to hear back from Darth. PM'd him earlier and wanted to make sure we are in agreement to go public.

But I haven't heard anything back, I want to leave a lot of time before the deadline and I don't want to be railroaded. I'm Laurie and Darth is my man. We are both villagers.

[jeff061]

So yeah. I voted Saldana. J23 would be fine by me as well, but the heat's been on Saldana for awhile now.

[Chief Rum]

Damn... we also can't confirm these. And this would be an easy set up for the wolves. They can PM each other anyway.

[Chief Rum]

Not saying you're not who you say you are, jeff, just noting this doesn't really clear anything up. It in fact adds another layer of complexion.

[jeff061]

Yeah I know. Heh. I mean it adds a layer of complexity for you guys. For me it was really convenient. I haven't gone out of my way to advertise this.

But yeah, that's why I wanted to leave plenty of room before deadline.

[jeff061]

Don't think I'm a huge fan of the wolves knowing which roles are in play. Too be honest.

[Chief Rum]

We now have four separate groups to consider:

1. EagleFan-- the scanned player with the most erratic behavior; claimed Marine role
2. hoops and Danny-- scanned players with normal behavior

NOTE: Only one wolf could come from the above group. We find one, the other two are cleared.

3. saldana, J23-- the uncleared players, both with possibly suspicious votes/moves/circumstances (sal )
4. DV/jeff61-- Claimed the lovers role

Believe it or not, after all of yesterday's stuff with sal, I am actually leaning to believing him now as a villager. Again, it mostly comes down to vibe, but I hope this time sal won't get his back up about that.

If sal is innocent, I am thinking EF is the cunning, with all villagers on EF on Day One. That makes the Day One vote even more interesting (and the Day Two vote less interesting). It also makes Day Three's deadline switches seem interesting.

I believe we may only have two wolves left. If so, if we find one outside of jeff/DV, we would have to believe their reveal is true. FTR, in a meta-gamey way, I put a little more faith that The Jackal will include Silk Spectre & Night Owl characters in his game, as those are major characters. EF's role choice seems less consequential and not as major.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Yeah I know. Heh. I mean it adds a layer of complexity for you guys. For me it was really convenient. I haven't gone out of my way to advertise this.

But yeah, that's why I wanted to leave plenty of room before deadline.

Can you point to anything you and DV did in thread that might give an indication of this earlier?

[jeff061]

I don't feel like doing that math. If am a wolf and am bluffing I am only buying a single night while selling two wolves out. Is that a good strategy after a wasted night attack against Rum?

[Chief Rum]

There is so much left to be determined. But if I had to give my best guess right now, I think EF is the cunning and J23 is the other wolf. I would bet that J23 is the wolf seer, which means EF will also be the brutal.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Can you point to anything you and DV did in thread that might give an indication of this earlier?

I'll have to go back through. Only thing that jumps to mind is voting on someone else shortly after a vote was cast on him. I'll dig it up. I certainly never directly pointed a finger his way.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

We now have four separate groups to consider:

1. EagleFan-- the scanned player with the most erratic behavior; claimed Marine role
2. hoops and Danny-- scanned players with normal behavior

NOTE: Only one wolf could come from the above group. We find one, the other two are cleared.

3. saldana, J23-- the uncleared players, both with possibly suspicious votes/moves/circumstances (sal )
4. DV/jeff61-- Claimed the lovers role

Believe it or not, after all of yesterday's stuff with sal, I am actually leaning to believing him now as a villager. Again, it mostly comes down to vibe, but I hope this time sal won't get his back up about that.

If sal is innocent, I am thinking EF is the cunning, with all villagers on EF on Day One. That makes the Day One vote even more interesting (and the Day Two vote less interesting). It also makes Day Three's deadline switches seem interesting.

I believe we may only have two wolves left. If so, if we find one outside of jeff/DV, we would have to believe their reveal is true. FTR, in a meta-gamey way, I put a little more faith that The Jackal will include Silk Spectre & Night Owl characters in his game, as those are major characters. EF's role choice seems less consequential and not as major.

DAMNIT CHIEF!!! how dare you put me on your list again...oh...wait a sec...nevermind.

in all seriousness, i am virtually certain EF is the cunning, and i dont know what to make of the newly claimed lovers...again, the wolves know what is not in the game, so they can claim whatever they want with impunity.

vote EF

[hoopsguy]

J23, anything that you would like to add to the conversation today? You've been lurking in thread a bit today but withholding comments. Us villagers kind of like having some conversation along the way when trying to find wolves ...

[jeff061]

Post 283: Saldana votes Darth
Post 284: I vote J23

That was pretty much solely to avoid things running up on Darth.

But let's be honest here, I tend to believe tonight's lynching is going to go however PF wants it to .

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

J23, anything that you would like to add to the conversation today? You've been lurking in thread a bit today but withholding comments. Us villagers kind of like having some conversation along the way when trying to find wolves ...

He's been doing this all game long, which gave me the seer/wolf feel with him.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by jeff061

I don't feel like doing that math. If am a wolf and am bluffing I am only buying a single night while selling two wolves out. Is that a good strategy after a wasted night attack against Rum?

Well, we have multiple other wolf options, and the seer does not have anyone to protect him anymore. The only way to discover the truth is to lynch either you or DV.

If we stay away from you, we might go more than one night before coming back to you. You could very well bluffing to get a couple nights, which would win you the game. The bluff, of course, is that we will check right away (lynch DV), and discover he's not who you say he is.

[J23]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Well, wanted to wait to hear back from Darth. PM'd him earlier and wanted to make sure we are in agreement to go public.

But I haven't heard anything back, I want to leave a lot of time before the deadline and I don't want to be railroaded. I'm Laurie and Darth is my man. We are both villagers.

I'm not sure why you'd go public with that role, especially naming which is which lover. If this is legit, a single wolf nightkill takes out two villagers.

[hoopsguy]

Well, at this point I'll remove my vote from jeff. I expect that we'll get confirmation from DV when he arrives.

UNVOTE JEFF061

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by J23

I'm not sure why you'd go public with that role, especially naming which is which lover. If this is legit, a single wolf nightkill takes out two villagers.

I go public because we are saying of 4 villagers 2 are wolves. I can clear 2 of them.

2 are only killed at once in the absence of Manhattan.

[J23]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

J23, anything that you would like to add to the conversation today? You've been lurking in thread a bit today but withholding comments. Us villagers kind of like having some conversation along the way when trying to find wolves ...

I have the site open in a browser at work, and pop in when I get a chance. It's not lurking or witholding comments if I'm not actually looking at the thread, is it?

[J23]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Daniel Dreiberg (Nite Owl II) and Laurie Juspeczyk (Silk Spectre II) - Lovers. May communicate with each other freely through private messaging. If Laurie is killed, they both die. If Daniel is killed, Laurie will survive only if Dr. Manhattan is still alive. She will not be revealed in this case, nor will she then be subject to automatic death if Dr. Manhattan dies. If this series of events occurs, she will gain the ability to scan nightly for her father, Edward Blake.

That looks to me like if Laurie gets killed, they both die regardless of Manhattan.

[EagleFan]

So if jeff is telling the truch that leaves J23 and saldana as two wolves and they we worry about the cunning which is either hoops, Danny or myself.

Actually it would be either hoops or Danny at that point as I know my role. My guess would be hoops at this point as he is trying his hardest to make a case against me and deflect from himself. If you believe that I am the cunning that would mean that all of the wolves would have switched to DT on day three with no vote spread at all. That is a move that would make no sense at all.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by J23

That looks to me like if Laurie gets killed, they both die regardless of Manhattan.

And now I feel like an idiot for reading that wrong. Hopefully not held against me. Sure it will be.

[J23]

At this point, I'd hazard the guess that there are 3 wolves left. A cunning from the circle of cleared folks, DV and Jeff. I'd be shocked if Ozymandius didn't make it into the game, so that means there's a cunning for sure. With those numbers, they're in a great position if a potential fake reveal like this buys them an extra day.

In thinking about it, I guess there could only be two, with Jeff being the cunning and hoping that the seer can clear him tonight while they take out Manhattan. It'd be a pretty risky move though, and I'm not sure a fake reveal makes sense in that situation.

Anyway, back to work for a bit.